And here we go again! Stats so far:
Last Week -
Samichlaus: 8-6
St. Ides: 7-7
Season -
Samichlaus: 23-23
St. Ides: 18-28
Due to circumstances totally under my control, my analysis will be quick and dirty this week. And let me say a special hello to my wife Karen who was very upset that I didn’t mention her once in last weeks picks…
Buffalo +0.5 over NEW ORLEANS
First "home" game for the Saints in San Antonio. Buffalo QB J.P. Losman has gotten worse each week instead of better. I just think the Bills defense is solid enough to give Aaron Brooks and company some trouble. I really want to take the Saints and say they'll play inspired football. I really do. But I just can't pull the trigger. Bills 24, Saints 20.
I want to believe. I saw this commercial with all the New York Giants wearing Saints uniforms and it really was touching. However, this is reality.
Bills 20, Saints 17
JAGUARS -3.5 over Denver
Denver looked like world beaters on Monday night against the Chiefs, making everybody second guess their declarations that the KC defense is much better this year and they're a real contender. But they were in Denver. The Jacksonville D shut down the high-powered Seattle and Indy offense, but then barely beat the horrible Jets. In Jacksonville, Jake Plummer returns to his usual self, and it's not even close. Jaguars 24, Broncos 10.
To quote Mike the bartender from the Stadium Sports Bar in Long Island City (regarding the Broncos) “They suck on the road”
Jaguars 24 Broncos 13
BUCS -7.5 over Lions
Joey Harrington, meet the Tampa Bay defense. The only thing going for the Lions in this game is that they won't have to worry about their home crowd booing the hell out of them. Bucs 24, Lions 10.
Yep. We agree again. This week is getting boring!
Bucs 27 Lions 15
BENGALS -9.5 over Texans
The Bengals are riding high, and have a pretty easy schedule the next few games. Most "experts" are picking them to be the last remaining unbeaten team. I won't go that far, but I do think their defense (5 INTS two weeks in a row) is catching up to their offense and they beat the poop out of the hapless Texans. Bengals 31, Texans 17.
Boomer Esiason called Carson Palmer the best young quarterback in the game, not David Carr.
Bengals 31 Texans 13
TITANS +7.5 over Colts
Peyton Manning is killing me. I took him with the #3 pick in the one fantasy league I'm in with an actual prize on the line, and he's killing me. Throw some frickin TDs, Peyton!!! All the talk is about how good the Colts D is now and how they can simply win games by pounding the ball with Edge James. Well, if the Colts are content to win games by 3-6 points by pounding the ball and playing defense, then I'm going to stop taking them. Last week, they were inside the Browns 20 with like 4 minutes to go leading by 7. They were giving 13. Touchdown, and they cover. Last year, Manning would have done a play action on 2nd and 1, and thrown an easy TD pass. This year, they ran and ran and ran, all the way down to the 5 yard line.... By then the clock was almost dead and the Browns were out of timeouts. A couple kneel downs, and game over. They didn't cover. Colts 24, Titans 18.
Damn, another complete agreement. I’m going to keep betting against the Colts until they prove me wrong.
Colts 20 Titties 17
CHIEFS -2.5 over Eagles
The Chiefs are back home after an embarassing loss in Denver, with Vermeil whining about Champ Bailey's "micced up" comments and the defense licking its wounds. McNabb is battered, but has played well. I think the home field is enough for the Chiefs to win this one, just barely. Chiefs 24, Eagles 20.
Finally. I took the Eagles in this game solely on the basis of last weeks games. That may be poor thinking but I’m going with it.
Eagles 31 Chiefs 24
Chargers +5.5 over PATS
More injuries for the Patriots - Rodney Harrison, some offensive lineman, and Kevin Faulk, all out. Meanwhile, the Chargers figured out all they have to do is give Tomlinson the ball. I think the Pats still win this, but not by more than a field goal. Patriots 26, Chargers 23.
I like San Diego in this game as well, but I’m wavering. The Pats lost Rodney Harrison this week and that’s huge. Although this makes life easier for Drew Brees, the Pats always seem to find a way to play good D no matter who they wheel out there. I’m sticking with my gut instinct, Patsies win but don’t cover…
Patriots 23 Chargers 20
Seahawks +2.5 over REDSKINS
I'm not going to ruin our mojo by going against Seattle this week. Yes, the Skins have a good defense. But their offense is pretty brutal. They're 2-0, but are about 5 plays from 0-2. As good as the Skins defense is, I still like our chances running the ball to the left behind Jones and Hutchinson. Oh, and ex-Seahawk Sean Springs will have something to prove. The bastard has been great since leaving Seattle, where injuries and a bad attitude had him playing as an ineffective nickel back when he left. Really though, I don't see the Washington offense getting much going, and the Seattle defense wins this one. Seahawks 17, Redskins 13.
Seattle is the most underrated team in the NFL. They win on the road…
Seahawks 24 Redskins 13
Rams +3.5 over GIANTS
The Rams suck on the road. Still, their offense usually manages to pull out a win or two every year that they should lose, despite Martz best efforts. The Giants shoud win this easily. Eli played well in the blowout against the Chargers, in a hostile environment. It was the defense that fell apart, and it's even worse off now with starting CB Will Peterson out. Rams 30, Giants 27.
I’m taking the Rams to win and cover. I think the loss of Peterson will be bigger to the G-men than the loss of Harrison to the Patroits.
Rams 34 Giants 20
Jets +7.5 over RAVENS
Everybody is writing off the Jets, and rightly so with some Bollinger guy at QB now, and the ageless Vinny Testeverde the backup. But the Ravens offense hasn't been all that great, even WITH all their starters. More than a touchdown is way too much to give in this one. Ravens win, but don't cover. Ravens 16, Jets 10.
Brooks Bollinger is better than everyone thinks. But the sight of Ray Lewis knifing through the line will be too much for the former Badger to handle.
Ravens 23 Jets 10
RAIDERS -3.5 over Cowboys
One of these days, Moss and Collins will have a huge game. Who better than against a Cowboys team that gave up those huge plays to blow the game against Washington? It also took Dallas a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat the awful Niners last week. Raiders 31, Cowboys 24.
Maybe there’s a part of me living in 1986 when Bill Parcels was a good coach. Don’t ask. I’m taking the ‘boys to win.
Cowboys 27 Raiders 20
FALCONS -6.5 over Vikings
Will the real Daunte Culpepper please stand up? Atlanta has a good enough defense to make Culpepper revert to his Weeks 1 and 2 interception throwing machine. Over/under is 3.5 on picks by Daunte. Falcons 30, Vikings 17.
Falcons at home and looking good. Vick’s still dinged and that forces him to actually act like a quarterback.
Vicks Herpes Infested Penis 34 – Vikings 17
Niners +2.5 over CARDINALS (in Mexico)
Oh, a real Sunday night treat! Two god awful teams playing in Mexico! Let's see if any of the Mexicans are clever enough to get on TV with a sign saying something like "El NFL en ESPaNol!" The only thing that would make this game interesting to watch would be if we get some fecal snow. Niners 34, Cardinals 27.
Fecal Snow????? What the hell is that?
Cardinals 20 - El Niner-0’s 13
Packers +8.5 over PANTHERS
I'll leave the in-depth analysis on this one to Samichlaus, but if the Packers don't at least cover in this game, it really might be time to start thinking about the draft. Too bad they took that QB this year, cause they might have a legit shot at Leinart. Panthers 24, Packers 20.
Rogers will be a better QB than Lienart, trust me. The Packers have lost their last two games by one and two points respectively. From all reports I’ve read they’ve practiced very well this week. I think they cover, and hope they win, but I can’t lie to our loyal readers any more.
Panthers 24 – Packers 21
Friday, September 30, 2005
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
How Does This Guy Keep His Job?
More proof Dr. Z is an idiot.
Seahawks, ranked #9 this week in his Power Rankings:
Seattle Seahawks (2-1)For the first two games, they were blanked in the second half. Against the Cardinals, they got off the schneid. Mike Holmgren's comment in his postgame press conference was, "I told you we'd score in the second half, and I was right, wasn't I?" This note came from our correspondent's file, and there's no indication of the tenor of his remark, but I hope Mike was being sarcastic. If he was serious, then he, the Hawks, and his friends are in big trouble.
Really, this guy should be dragged out and beaten. Following the Falcons game, someone in the press pointed out that Seattle hadn't scored in the second half. Holmgren made a tongue in cheek comment, guaranteeing that they would score a touchdown in the second half sometime this season. He guaranteed it. After the Cardinals game, he made this comment, jokingly, reminding everybody of his broad "sometime this season" prediction.
First of all, A) it shows he knows NOTHING of Holmgren's personality and how he relates to the media in these press conferences. B) all it takes is reading a few press conference transcripts from head coaches during the week to be aware of this situation, and C) not only was this in his press conferences, but ESPN and I think maybe even NFL.com mentioned the remark in their "Game Previews" during last week. So not only was this not buried deep in long transcripts, but competitor websites had somehow realized it. Oh, and D) if he was being serious, why, exactly, would that put our team in trouble? What a frickin moron.
I mean, if this was my full-time job, I would be reading/watching EVERY head coach press conference, especially teams I'm going to rank in my top 10. What it SHOULD say for Seattle is something like this:
"The Seahawks did what they should do if they want to win the division - handily beat a mediocre team at home. With the well-balanced offense clicking, the receivers' dropping woes seemingly a thing of the past, and an improving young defense, it will be interesting to see how they handle the upcoming two big road games at Washington and St. Louis."
Seahawks, ranked #9 this week in his Power Rankings:
Seattle Seahawks (2-1)For the first two games, they were blanked in the second half. Against the Cardinals, they got off the schneid. Mike Holmgren's comment in his postgame press conference was, "I told you we'd score in the second half, and I was right, wasn't I?" This note came from our correspondent's file, and there's no indication of the tenor of his remark, but I hope Mike was being sarcastic. If he was serious, then he, the Hawks, and his friends are in big trouble.
Really, this guy should be dragged out and beaten. Following the Falcons game, someone in the press pointed out that Seattle hadn't scored in the second half. Holmgren made a tongue in cheek comment, guaranteeing that they would score a touchdown in the second half sometime this season. He guaranteed it. After the Cardinals game, he made this comment, jokingly, reminding everybody of his broad "sometime this season" prediction.
First of all, A) it shows he knows NOTHING of Holmgren's personality and how he relates to the media in these press conferences. B) all it takes is reading a few press conference transcripts from head coaches during the week to be aware of this situation, and C) not only was this in his press conferences, but ESPN and I think maybe even NFL.com mentioned the remark in their "Game Previews" during last week. So not only was this not buried deep in long transcripts, but competitor websites had somehow realized it. Oh, and D) if he was being serious, why, exactly, would that put our team in trouble? What a frickin moron.
I mean, if this was my full-time job, I would be reading/watching EVERY head coach press conference, especially teams I'm going to rank in my top 10. What it SHOULD say for Seattle is something like this:
"The Seahawks did what they should do if they want to win the division - handily beat a mediocre team at home. With the well-balanced offense clicking, the receivers' dropping woes seemingly a thing of the past, and an improving young defense, it will be interesting to see how they handle the upcoming two big road games at Washington and St. Louis."
The Five Stages of Football Death
Last year right around this time of the season the Packers were at 1 - 3 heading into a Monday Night Game against the Tennessee Titans. It was a game they would eventually lose 48 - 27 pushing them to a 1 - 4 record. Their defense had been abominable, and many (including Ol' Samichlaus) had pretty much written off the season. It was in that spirit that I wrote the following missive. Normally I am not such an egotist as to post retread material but this piece seems as relevant now as it did then. After all, the Packers are headed into a Monday night showdown with another Southern team, and are equally if not more desperate than last season. So without further adieu, I present "The Five Stages of Football Death"
I know, I know “It ain't over till it’s over ” or at least until Mike Sherman decides that yes, “I can’t handle the two jobs, so I’d like to introduce the new head coach of the Green Bay Packers, Bob Slowik” . But last night, something happened that got me thinking, something profound and awful at the same time. Last night while conversing with my father in law, who is a huge Dolphins fan, I found myself having the dreaded "High draft pick" conversation. I can’t tell you how it started, or how I got there, but it actually felt good. There I was talking about “drafting a stud D-lineman” while listening to Dad go on about “a new Quarterback”. I felt a sense of calm that I had not felt since, well, week one Tuesday morning.
I had no idea how quickly stage five can sneak up on someone. You do know what I’m talking about, right? Stage 5? Of course, I’m referring to Elizabeth Kubler - Ross's lesser know work "5 Stages of Football death". What really amazed me was how after careful analysis I realized how I have experienced each and every stage. Maybe some of you have too. Maybe you haven’t quite understood what you’ve been going through, so I offer this up in this public forum not only as public service to all Packer fans, but as an apology to my beautiful wife Karen who by solemn vow has sworn to stay with me through good times and bad. Honey, for my recent lack of enthusiasm, morose attitude and overall not nice-ness, I apologize and hope that this forum will put into intellectual terms that your brilliant mind can understand the severity of the recent trauma I have gone through….
The Five Stages of Football Death
1: (Week 2) Denial and Isolation: "This is not happening to the Packers. That Bears game was an anomaly. You saw them against the Cats. Hey, a few plays here and there, and it's a different game. Lovie had ‘em fired up. The coaches will pull them together, you’ll see. Slowik’s a genius. They're going to shock the world against the Colts"
2: (Week 3) Anger: “*#($(#))$%ing defense. What the *&#^ is Slowik thinking? *(#&$ing blitz blitz blitz against Manning? How &*%#$)*&^@ing open did we leave their receivers? Manning ain’t all that. Filthy overpaid *$#)*&^%ers. How much am I paying for DirecTV? I wait all week for this game and these *$&^@%)!&$ers don't bother to show. Do they expect Favre to carry the weight of this &@^#ing team in his @*$$&#( @&$$sack? Karen? Karen honey? Sweetie, where are you going???" <<>>
3: (Week 4) Bargaining: "OK, we got the Giants at home next week. The Giants haven’t won here since 1971! If we can just beat them we get to 2 - 2 and maybe we can put a streak together.." (Later that week) "OK, Favre's hurt, but he just threw a TD pass!!! Yes!!!! If he can only get back into the game, we'll have a shot! Please God, let Favre get back in!! Remember that fire truck you never got me when I was six? Here’s your big chance!!! ... look, I'll pray, OK? Our Favre who art in Lambeau, hallowed be thy arm...."
4: (Week 5) Depression: "Man, I'm depressed. Even the adult sites haven't helped. I could use a drink, but I'm too sick. Besides every where I go the sports bars remind me of my beloved Packers (fights back tears) Maybe I’ll get some Nyquil, just like when I was 15. Why did I spend the $40.00 on Packer Plus Premium? Hmm… Cliff Christl is a funny looking guy…”
5: (Last night) Acceptance: "So Dad, you think the Fins take that QB everyone’s talking about? ....no, I don't know if he Jewish, what difference does that make?.... well, I guess I never really though about it, yeah Dartmouth is an Ivy League school.….. I guess since the Packers will probably have a top 5 I think they should go D lineman or best D player available..... Sunday? No they're playing Monday Night.... Nahh, probably not. The Botanical Gardens are open late for the fall zinnia festival and I thought I'd take Karen there just before kickoff"
I know, I know “It ain't over till it’s over ” or at least until Mike Sherman decides that yes, “I can’t handle the two jobs, so I’d like to introduce the new head coach of the Green Bay Packers, Bob Slowik” . But last night, something happened that got me thinking, something profound and awful at the same time. Last night while conversing with my father in law, who is a huge Dolphins fan, I found myself having the dreaded "High draft pick" conversation. I can’t tell you how it started, or how I got there, but it actually felt good. There I was talking about “drafting a stud D-lineman” while listening to Dad go on about “a new Quarterback”. I felt a sense of calm that I had not felt since, well, week one Tuesday morning.
I had no idea how quickly stage five can sneak up on someone. You do know what I’m talking about, right? Stage 5? Of course, I’m referring to Elizabeth Kubler - Ross's lesser know work "5 Stages of Football death". What really amazed me was how after careful analysis I realized how I have experienced each and every stage. Maybe some of you have too. Maybe you haven’t quite understood what you’ve been going through, so I offer this up in this public forum not only as public service to all Packer fans, but as an apology to my beautiful wife Karen who by solemn vow has sworn to stay with me through good times and bad. Honey, for my recent lack of enthusiasm, morose attitude and overall not nice-ness, I apologize and hope that this forum will put into intellectual terms that your brilliant mind can understand the severity of the recent trauma I have gone through….
The Five Stages of Football Death
1: (Week 2) Denial and Isolation: "This is not happening to the Packers. That Bears game was an anomaly. You saw them against the Cats. Hey, a few plays here and there, and it's a different game. Lovie had ‘em fired up. The coaches will pull them together, you’ll see. Slowik’s a genius. They're going to shock the world against the Colts"
2: (Week 3) Anger: “*#($(#))$%ing defense. What the *&#^ is Slowik thinking? *(#&$ing blitz blitz blitz against Manning? How &*%#$)*&^@ing open did we leave their receivers? Manning ain’t all that. Filthy overpaid *$#)*&^%ers. How much am I paying for DirecTV? I wait all week for this game and these *$&^@%)!&$ers don't bother to show. Do they expect Favre to carry the weight of this &@^#ing team in his @*$$&#( @&$$sack? Karen? Karen honey? Sweetie, where are you going???" <<
3: (Week 4) Bargaining: "OK, we got the Giants at home next week. The Giants haven’t won here since 1971! If we can just beat them we get to 2 - 2 and maybe we can put a streak together.." (Later that week) "OK, Favre's hurt, but he just threw a TD pass!!! Yes!!!! If he can only get back into the game, we'll have a shot! Please God, let Favre get back in!! Remember that fire truck you never got me when I was six? Here’s your big chance!!! ... look, I'll pray, OK? Our Favre who art in Lambeau, hallowed be thy arm...."
4: (Week 5) Depression: "Man, I'm depressed. Even the adult sites haven't helped. I could use a drink, but I'm too sick. Besides every where I go the sports bars remind me of my beloved Packers (fights back tears) Maybe I’ll get some Nyquil, just like when I was 15. Why did I spend the $40.00 on Packer Plus Premium? Hmm… Cliff Christl is a funny looking guy…”
5: (Last night) Acceptance: "So Dad, you think the Fins take that QB everyone’s talking about? ....no, I don't know if he Jewish, what difference does that make?.... well, I guess I never really though about it, yeah Dartmouth is an Ivy League school.….. I guess since the Packers will probably have a top 5 I think they should go D lineman or best D player available..... Sunday? No they're playing Monday Night.... Nahh, probably not. The Botanical Gardens are open late for the fall zinnia festival and I thought I'd take Karen there just before kickoff"
Friday, September 23, 2005
Week 3 Picks
Wow, I sucked last week. But you know what, so did a lot of those "experts" and they're picking WITHOUT the spread. Peter King (aforementioned writer from SI who's pissing me off lately) admitted to going just 4-12 last week with no point spread involved. Straight up, he only picked 4 games correctly. That makes me feel a little better. What will make me feel a lot better is getting every game right this week.
Last week was a strange week for picking games. On one hand, I went 8-8 which was pretty good. Plus I’m kicking Donovan McNabb’s Mom’s fat ass. I’m in the 82nd percentile and moving up. I also correctly predicted the Pats loss, which NOBODY got right. On the other hand, the Bears, Jets, and (uggh) Cleveland shocked me.
Atlanta (+0.5) over BUFFALO
I guess the question is who was more exposed last week? Atlanta on the road against a decent defense, or rookie QB J.P. Losman against a good defense? Really, I'm tempted to take the Bills at home in this one, especially with Vick a bit gimpy. But I say the Atlanta defense steps up a notch and I think Mora is a good enough coach to get them to bounce back and win this one. Falcons 17, Bills 13.
I like Vick and his herpes infested penis in this game too. Ed Donatel is a smart enough defensive coordinator to sufficiently confuse J.P. Losman. Look for Atlanta to have several picks while winning easy. Atlanta wins 24 -13
Carolina (-3.5) over MIAMI
I'm not sure if we know more or less this week than we did last week. Carolina just beat the Patriots, but the Patriots were sloppy. Miami also played an ugly game, keeping it close with the Jets. I think the defenses are pretty much a wash here, but the Panthers offense ought to be good enough to cover. But just barely. Panthers 17, Dolphins 13.
I like the Cats too. The Cats are a good, well coached team. The Fins are well coached, but they’re not that good. Sure they kept it close against the Jets, but the Jets are terrible. The Patsies were ripe for the pickins. I look for the Cats to follow up with a big win and not a letdown. Panthers 31- Miami 17
CHICAGO (+3.5) over Cinci
Are the Bears the sleeper team of the year? Or has Carson Palmer finally come into his own and ready to be a Pro Bowl caliber QB? My dad usually preaches "Always take a home team getting points." Sometimes I listen, sometimes I don't. I think these teams are closely enough matched that I'll take the home team and the points. Bears 20, Bengals 17.
I’m going with the theory that the Bears game last week was an anomaly. Besides, and in case I haven’t mentioned it, Boomer Esiason thinks that Carson Palmer is the best young QB in the league. As they sing in Wisconsin : “The Bears still suck”. Bungles 20, em-Bear-asses 10
INDY (-13.5) over Cleveland
Manning really hasn't gone off yet. I think it's time. And maybe the Colts defense really is for real, who knows? Colts 31, Browns 17.
I’m not sure what went wrong for Indy last week, though they won and as St. Ides pointed out to me did not cover. I contend that Indianapolis is the best team in football right now, but I think 13.5 is a lot of points. Cleveland has a good D, so I’m taking the bait. Indy wins but does not cover for the second week in a row: Indy 24 -17
Jaguars (+0.5) over JETS
The Jets were fairly lucky to win an ugly game versus a pretty bad Miami team last week. While the Jaguars shut down the league's best offense. I made this one my "double" pick of the week. Pennington ought to be good for 2-3 picks this game. Jaguars 24, Jets 10.
I see it that way as well. The Jets truly surprised me last week by winning. No surprises here against a quality opponent: Jaguars 27 – Jets 13
Saints (+4.5) over VIKINGS
The heat is on the Vikings, and once Culpepper throws his first interception, the boo-birds will be out, and suddenly it won't be much of a home field advantage... Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a tough "home" loss played in Giant stadium. I think they bounce back, and even if they don't quite win the game, it should be within a field goal. Saints 27, Vikings 24.
I think the Vikes show up at home and play their best game of the season. That team has so much goddamn talent it makes me sick. They would be dominating (singing here) “if they only had a brain”. The truth about the Saints is a sad truth: they’re not very good. The Vikings get their first win: 34- 20
PHILLY (-7.5) over Oakland
I'm going to say McNabb and Owens at home are a bit better than Whiskey Collins and Moss on the road. Plus Philly has a better defense by far. The countdown until the Moss mental breakdown begins this week as Collins can't hit the broad side of a barn. Eagles 31, Raiders 20.
This is a tough game to pick. The Eagles looked un-friggin-stoppable last week. Oakland has Randy Moss, and that’ll always keep a game close. Plus, Moss likes to show up for big games. I’m taking the Raiders and the points. Eagles 34 – Raiders 31
PACKERS (+3.5) over Tampa Bay
Green Bay has me worried. But I can't give them points at home, just can't do it. When was the last time Green Bay lost 2 in a row at home? As good as Tampa Bay has looked, I don't think they get that done. Packers 21, Bucs 17.
First, let me say that I can not remember the last time the Packers were a home dog. Second, let me say that the tone out of Green Bay is anything but urgent. Third, let me say that Tampa has a good team with the leagues number one ranked defense. Fourth, let me say that the Bucs head coach, Jon Gruden, was one of Favre’s Quarterback coaches under Mike Holmgren. With all that said, let me suggest that you pick the Bucs. I, however, am taking the Packers. Packers 24 – Bucs 23
Titans (+6.5) over RAMS
The Rams ought to win this game at home against a mediocre Titans team. Although the Titans are riding a high after shocking the Ravens last week. The Rams offense is a bit more explosive than the Titans, but a couple turnovers, a patented Martz bone-headed move or two, and a late Titans score in garbage time keeps them from covering. Rams 31, Titans 27.
The greatest show on turf comes home to roost this week. I’m looking for a big game out of the Rams offense, and a crap performance out of the Titans. I like the Rams big: Rams 38 – Titties 17
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Cardinals
If Seattle is for real, they win this game handily. In a reverse of last week's successful reverse psychology pick, I'm going to keep the faith and hope they batter Warner and co. Seahawks 31, Cardinals 20.
The battle of the birds. Sorry, I had to pause and look at that again. Yeah, here’s the Sami-scoop: Seattle is going to keep getting better as the year goes on. That’s a good young team with some studs on both sides of the ball. Arizona will prove to be another over-hyped pretender. I’m going with the Chicken Hawks: Seattle 27 – Arizona 13
NINERS (+6.5) over Dallas
That Monday night loss has got to be killing Parcells and his team right now. How do they bounce back after a short week to go to San Fran? Well, I think they probably win, but just barely. In two plays last week, Dallas went from people calling them a contender, to a bit of a joke. Maybe this is my anti-Parcells bias speaking, but whatever. Cowboys 17, Niners 13.
No way the Cowboys lose this game. The question is do they have the chops to cover? I’m going with a resounding yes and not so much because the Cowboys are so good, but more because the Niners are so damn bad. I never thought I’d see the day… Boys 27 – Niners 13
Pats (+3.5) over STEELERS
Can the Patriots bounce back after the dreadful loss last week? As our anonymous Pats fan pointed out, Brady did his best Bledsoe impersonation. And their defense does not look as good as in the past. I think the Steelers win this one, but 3 points is too much to be giving the defending champs. Steelers 19, Patriots 17.
Another tough game to forecast, but I’m picking the Pats. Here’s their opportunity to show Pittsburgh who’s boss. It’s going to be a low scoring snot bubbler, but the Patriots win it outright. Patsies 17 - Steelers 7
Giants (+6.5) over CHARGERS
The Giants have looked pretty good so far on both sides of the ball. They win this game, and suddenly they are 3-0 and that extra home game against the Saints looms large in the playoff picture. I don't think they win this game against an 0-2 Chargers team that are two plays away from being 2-0, but I do think they keep it close. Chargers 29, Giants 24.
This is a case of the bookies know something that Samichlaus doesn’t. The Bolts are giving a TD to the Giants? That seems excessive. Don’t be surprised if the Giants win this game outright. For posterities sake I’ll go Bolts 24 – Giants 21.
Chiefs (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I like the Chiefs a lot this year (peek back at my AFC preview). Now seeing them in action, their defense looks for real, Larry Johnson has looked awesome paired with Priest Holmes, and they're 2-0. Another tough road game after winning in Oakland last week, but I think Denver is on a downward slide, and the Chiefs take a nice 3-0 division lead with this win. Even if the Broncos do pull it out, it will take another last second field goal, and they won't cover. Chiefs 30, Broncos 24.
I have got to pee so bad, it’s insane. This is the last pick and I’m struggling to get it done so I can get the mail off to St. Ides and then make a mad sprint to the toilet. I might even be coerced to drop a deuce. Chiefs 31 – Broncos 24
Last Week
Samichlaus: 8-8
St. Ides: 4-12
Overall:
Samichlaus: 15 -17
St. Ides: 11-21
Last week was a strange week for picking games. On one hand, I went 8-8 which was pretty good. Plus I’m kicking Donovan McNabb’s Mom’s fat ass. I’m in the 82nd percentile and moving up. I also correctly predicted the Pats loss, which NOBODY got right. On the other hand, the Bears, Jets, and (uggh) Cleveland shocked me.
Atlanta (+0.5) over BUFFALO
I guess the question is who was more exposed last week? Atlanta on the road against a decent defense, or rookie QB J.P. Losman against a good defense? Really, I'm tempted to take the Bills at home in this one, especially with Vick a bit gimpy. But I say the Atlanta defense steps up a notch and I think Mora is a good enough coach to get them to bounce back and win this one. Falcons 17, Bills 13.
I like Vick and his herpes infested penis in this game too. Ed Donatel is a smart enough defensive coordinator to sufficiently confuse J.P. Losman. Look for Atlanta to have several picks while winning easy. Atlanta wins 24 -13
Carolina (-3.5) over MIAMI
I'm not sure if we know more or less this week than we did last week. Carolina just beat the Patriots, but the Patriots were sloppy. Miami also played an ugly game, keeping it close with the Jets. I think the defenses are pretty much a wash here, but the Panthers offense ought to be good enough to cover. But just barely. Panthers 17, Dolphins 13.
I like the Cats too. The Cats are a good, well coached team. The Fins are well coached, but they’re not that good. Sure they kept it close against the Jets, but the Jets are terrible. The Patsies were ripe for the pickins. I look for the Cats to follow up with a big win and not a letdown. Panthers 31- Miami 17
CHICAGO (+3.5) over Cinci
Are the Bears the sleeper team of the year? Or has Carson Palmer finally come into his own and ready to be a Pro Bowl caliber QB? My dad usually preaches "Always take a home team getting points." Sometimes I listen, sometimes I don't. I think these teams are closely enough matched that I'll take the home team and the points. Bears 20, Bengals 17.
I’m going with the theory that the Bears game last week was an anomaly. Besides, and in case I haven’t mentioned it, Boomer Esiason thinks that Carson Palmer is the best young QB in the league. As they sing in Wisconsin : “The Bears still suck”. Bungles 20, em-Bear-asses 10
INDY (-13.5) over Cleveland
Manning really hasn't gone off yet. I think it's time. And maybe the Colts defense really is for real, who knows? Colts 31, Browns 17.
I’m not sure what went wrong for Indy last week, though they won and as St. Ides pointed out to me did not cover. I contend that Indianapolis is the best team in football right now, but I think 13.5 is a lot of points. Cleveland has a good D, so I’m taking the bait. Indy wins but does not cover for the second week in a row: Indy 24 -17
Jaguars (+0.5) over JETS
The Jets were fairly lucky to win an ugly game versus a pretty bad Miami team last week. While the Jaguars shut down the league's best offense. I made this one my "double" pick of the week. Pennington ought to be good for 2-3 picks this game. Jaguars 24, Jets 10.
I see it that way as well. The Jets truly surprised me last week by winning. No surprises here against a quality opponent: Jaguars 27 – Jets 13
Saints (+4.5) over VIKINGS
The heat is on the Vikings, and once Culpepper throws his first interception, the boo-birds will be out, and suddenly it won't be much of a home field advantage... Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a tough "home" loss played in Giant stadium. I think they bounce back, and even if they don't quite win the game, it should be within a field goal. Saints 27, Vikings 24.
I think the Vikes show up at home and play their best game of the season. That team has so much goddamn talent it makes me sick. They would be dominating (singing here) “if they only had a brain”. The truth about the Saints is a sad truth: they’re not very good. The Vikings get their first win: 34- 20
PHILLY (-7.5) over Oakland
I'm going to say McNabb and Owens at home are a bit better than Whiskey Collins and Moss on the road. Plus Philly has a better defense by far. The countdown until the Moss mental breakdown begins this week as Collins can't hit the broad side of a barn. Eagles 31, Raiders 20.
This is a tough game to pick. The Eagles looked un-friggin-stoppable last week. Oakland has Randy Moss, and that’ll always keep a game close. Plus, Moss likes to show up for big games. I’m taking the Raiders and the points. Eagles 34 – Raiders 31
PACKERS (+3.5) over Tampa Bay
Green Bay has me worried. But I can't give them points at home, just can't do it. When was the last time Green Bay lost 2 in a row at home? As good as Tampa Bay has looked, I don't think they get that done. Packers 21, Bucs 17.
First, let me say that I can not remember the last time the Packers were a home dog. Second, let me say that the tone out of Green Bay is anything but urgent. Third, let me say that Tampa has a good team with the leagues number one ranked defense. Fourth, let me say that the Bucs head coach, Jon Gruden, was one of Favre’s Quarterback coaches under Mike Holmgren. With all that said, let me suggest that you pick the Bucs. I, however, am taking the Packers. Packers 24 – Bucs 23
Titans (+6.5) over RAMS
The Rams ought to win this game at home against a mediocre Titans team. Although the Titans are riding a high after shocking the Ravens last week. The Rams offense is a bit more explosive than the Titans, but a couple turnovers, a patented Martz bone-headed move or two, and a late Titans score in garbage time keeps them from covering. Rams 31, Titans 27.
The greatest show on turf comes home to roost this week. I’m looking for a big game out of the Rams offense, and a crap performance out of the Titans. I like the Rams big: Rams 38 – Titties 17
SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Cardinals
If Seattle is for real, they win this game handily. In a reverse of last week's successful reverse psychology pick, I'm going to keep the faith and hope they batter Warner and co. Seahawks 31, Cardinals 20.
The battle of the birds. Sorry, I had to pause and look at that again. Yeah, here’s the Sami-scoop: Seattle is going to keep getting better as the year goes on. That’s a good young team with some studs on both sides of the ball. Arizona will prove to be another over-hyped pretender. I’m going with the Chicken Hawks: Seattle 27 – Arizona 13
NINERS (+6.5) over Dallas
That Monday night loss has got to be killing Parcells and his team right now. How do they bounce back after a short week to go to San Fran? Well, I think they probably win, but just barely. In two plays last week, Dallas went from people calling them a contender, to a bit of a joke. Maybe this is my anti-Parcells bias speaking, but whatever. Cowboys 17, Niners 13.
No way the Cowboys lose this game. The question is do they have the chops to cover? I’m going with a resounding yes and not so much because the Cowboys are so good, but more because the Niners are so damn bad. I never thought I’d see the day… Boys 27 – Niners 13
Pats (+3.5) over STEELERS
Can the Patriots bounce back after the dreadful loss last week? As our anonymous Pats fan pointed out, Brady did his best Bledsoe impersonation. And their defense does not look as good as in the past. I think the Steelers win this one, but 3 points is too much to be giving the defending champs. Steelers 19, Patriots 17.
Another tough game to forecast, but I’m picking the Pats. Here’s their opportunity to show Pittsburgh who’s boss. It’s going to be a low scoring snot bubbler, but the Patriots win it outright. Patsies 17 - Steelers 7
Giants (+6.5) over CHARGERS
The Giants have looked pretty good so far on both sides of the ball. They win this game, and suddenly they are 3-0 and that extra home game against the Saints looms large in the playoff picture. I don't think they win this game against an 0-2 Chargers team that are two plays away from being 2-0, but I do think they keep it close. Chargers 29, Giants 24.
This is a case of the bookies know something that Samichlaus doesn’t. The Bolts are giving a TD to the Giants? That seems excessive. Don’t be surprised if the Giants win this game outright. For posterities sake I’ll go Bolts 24 – Giants 21.
Chiefs (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I like the Chiefs a lot this year (peek back at my AFC preview). Now seeing them in action, their defense looks for real, Larry Johnson has looked awesome paired with Priest Holmes, and they're 2-0. Another tough road game after winning in Oakland last week, but I think Denver is on a downward slide, and the Chiefs take a nice 3-0 division lead with this win. Even if the Broncos do pull it out, it will take another last second field goal, and they won't cover. Chiefs 30, Broncos 24.
I have got to pee so bad, it’s insane. This is the last pick and I’m struggling to get it done so I can get the mail off to St. Ides and then make a mad sprint to the toilet. I might even be coerced to drop a deuce. Chiefs 31 – Broncos 24
Last Week
Samichlaus: 8-8
St. Ides: 4-12
Overall:
Samichlaus: 15 -17
St. Ides: 11-21
Thursday, September 22, 2005
Death to the Experts
I used to like reading the SI writers, but more and more, I find myself thinking "Uhmmm, are they effin kidding me?"
I mean, I guess these guys don't watch every single game every single week (although I would if that was my full-time job). But they should at least investigate a bit more before making such blanket statements like this one...
In this week's SI Power Rankings, Dr. Z ranked the Seahawks at #12, and had this to say:
"They almost did it again, that fourth quarter fade. If Michael Vick had stayed in, who knows?"
If Vick had stayed in?!?! Vick missed all of 5 snaps the entire game. One of which was a 2-point conversion try. Backup Matt Schaub (who many of the same experts claim could be a starter in several teams in the league) came in for Vick. Here's the recap of those snaps Vick missed:
1.) 2nd and 5 at SEA 5 (4:41) #8 Schaub in at QB W.Dunn up the middle to SEA 5 for no gain (K.Hamlin, J.Sharper).
2.) 3rd and 5 at SEA 5 (4:06) M.Schaub pass incomplete to B.Finneran.
PENALTY on SEA-A.Dyson, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 5 - No Play.
3.) 1st and 1 at SEA 1 (4:01) T.Duckett right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4.) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Schaub pass to A.Crumpler is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
(NOTE: Vick was back in for the final drive, and only left again on 4th and long, after he took a bad sack.)
5.) 4th and 14 at ATL 23 (1:41) #8 Shaub in at QB (Shotgun) M.Schaub pass incomplete to R.White (A.Dyson).
So let's see... a run for no gain, a pass that drew an interference call in the end zone, a subsequent 1-yard TD run, a successful 2-point conversion pass, and an incompletion on a tough 4th and long (which he inherited from Vick). Really, only on the 4th down play could you possibly say that maybe, MAYBE, there's a chance Vick could have scrambled around and found an open receiver or run for the first down. But you could say that on any play in any game about any player that comes out due to an injury. And yet this "expert" claims that had Vick stayed in, the Seahawks might have choked the game away?
So the question remains.. Have I regained faith in the Seahawks after a gutsy win against Atlanta? Their defense stepped up and played a great game. Combine that with the fact that Jacksonville gave the Colts a tough game in Indy, and maybe Seattle is better than people think. Maybe the Jags defense really is THAT good. If Seattle is for real, they should smash the Kurt Warner led Cardinals this Sunday at home. The Arizona offensive line is awful. Their running game has been non-existent. And Warner is as inmobile, sack-prone, and turnover-happy as ever. They need to win that game by at least 10, and then maybe my faith will be restored. For now.
I mean, I guess these guys don't watch every single game every single week (although I would if that was my full-time job). But they should at least investigate a bit more before making such blanket statements like this one...
In this week's SI Power Rankings, Dr. Z ranked the Seahawks at #12, and had this to say:
"They almost did it again, that fourth quarter fade. If Michael Vick had stayed in, who knows?"
If Vick had stayed in?!?! Vick missed all of 5 snaps the entire game. One of which was a 2-point conversion try. Backup Matt Schaub (who many of the same experts claim could be a starter in several teams in the league) came in for Vick. Here's the recap of those snaps Vick missed:
1.) 2nd and 5 at SEA 5 (4:41) #8 Schaub in at QB W.Dunn up the middle to SEA 5 for no gain (K.Hamlin, J.Sharper).
2.) 3rd and 5 at SEA 5 (4:06) M.Schaub pass incomplete to B.Finneran.
PENALTY on SEA-A.Dyson, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 5 - No Play.
3.) 1st and 1 at SEA 1 (4:01) T.Duckett right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4.) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Schaub pass to A.Crumpler is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
(NOTE: Vick was back in for the final drive, and only left again on 4th and long, after he took a bad sack.)
5.) 4th and 14 at ATL 23 (1:41) #8 Shaub in at QB (Shotgun) M.Schaub pass incomplete to R.White (A.Dyson).
So let's see... a run for no gain, a pass that drew an interference call in the end zone, a subsequent 1-yard TD run, a successful 2-point conversion pass, and an incompletion on a tough 4th and long (which he inherited from Vick). Really, only on the 4th down play could you possibly say that maybe, MAYBE, there's a chance Vick could have scrambled around and found an open receiver or run for the first down. But you could say that on any play in any game about any player that comes out due to an injury. And yet this "expert" claims that had Vick stayed in, the Seahawks might have choked the game away?
So the question remains.. Have I regained faith in the Seahawks after a gutsy win against Atlanta? Their defense stepped up and played a great game. Combine that with the fact that Jacksonville gave the Colts a tough game in Indy, and maybe Seattle is better than people think. Maybe the Jags defense really is THAT good. If Seattle is for real, they should smash the Kurt Warner led Cardinals this Sunday at home. The Arizona offensive line is awful. Their running game has been non-existent. And Warner is as inmobile, sack-prone, and turnover-happy as ever. They need to win that game by at least 10, and then maybe my faith will be restored. For now.
Monday, September 19, 2005
Some advice from Zaphoid Beeblebrox
The first page of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy offers two simple words of advice for intergalactic traveler: “Don’t Panic”. Yesterday’s loss to the Cleveland Browns, the loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns, the loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns at home, the loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns at home on Reggie White day has sent waves of panic through the Packer Press. Packer fans aren’t sure where to lay the blame. Many want to fire Mike Sherman while others want to fire Mike Sherman, but ol’ Samichlaus doesn’t see it that way. My advice to all Packer fans is simply DON’T PANIC.
However, Patriots fans…..
Week one saw the Packers vaunted offense muster up a whopping three points while losing Javon Walker for the season with a torn ACL. But week one also saw a spirited performance by the much maligned defense who played a short field most of the afternoon and gave up 17 points. Week two was a performance right out of last season. The defense gave up two huge plays that accounted for 14 points, and I swear if I didn’t know any better I saw the ghost of Bob Slowik roaming the sidelines calling the defensive formations. Was it a surprise to anyone that the two touchdowns of 60 and 80 yards came on all out blitzes?
The Packers actually out played Cleveland in several key areas, and they dominated the second half. Take a look at two key statistics:
Time of possession: Packers 35:11 Browns 24:49
First downs: Packers 27 Browns 19
Now, you don’t have to remind me that the only statistic that counts is the final score. The Packers need to play 60 minutes of football, they need to dominate from start to finish, but they are a young team. They are learning a new defense. Their offensive line is diminished. And Brett isn’t getting any younger. But this team will get better as the season goes on. The first four games, I’m not too worried about. The last four will define this season.
Notes from the game:
Yesterday’s spread featured home made deep dish pizza. The crust was made from “Krusteaz low carb bread mix” and the sauce was provided by a co-worker who wanted my expert opinion. Even Karen enjoyed it, though she poked the pepperoni slices off.
The Reggie White tribute was touching though we only saw about a minute of it. During the fourth quarter with the Packers down two, the defense needed a third down stop. The crowd, as if trying to conjure up the spirit of Reggie White began chanting “Reggie... Reggie... Reggie…” in hopes of inspiring the lackadaisical defense to rise to the occasion. I was moved to tears. The defense responded by giving up a 12 yard completion for a first down.
As former Wolverine Braylon Edwards broke an 80 yard touchdown I thought of my friend St. Ides. Then I thought about Notre Dame whooping the Wolverines asses last week and I felt better.
The Confederate Packers, much like the real Packers played well enough to lose. Week two was a squeaker, but I was beaten by St. Ides’s brother, the great hockey legend Dennis Potvin. (Karen honey, ask me and I’ll explain the joke). This brings the family score to St. Ides family 2, Samichlaus family zipperoni. Next week we face some dude named McBride, which sounds like something I could order at a McDonalds in Thailand. His team has T.O. My team has Robert Ferguson. Looks like another loss for my team.
That’s all for now….
Who said the Cats would beat the Pats?
However, Patriots fans…..
Week one saw the Packers vaunted offense muster up a whopping three points while losing Javon Walker for the season with a torn ACL. But week one also saw a spirited performance by the much maligned defense who played a short field most of the afternoon and gave up 17 points. Week two was a performance right out of last season. The defense gave up two huge plays that accounted for 14 points, and I swear if I didn’t know any better I saw the ghost of Bob Slowik roaming the sidelines calling the defensive formations. Was it a surprise to anyone that the two touchdowns of 60 and 80 yards came on all out blitzes?
The Packers actually out played Cleveland in several key areas, and they dominated the second half. Take a look at two key statistics:
Time of possession: Packers 35:11 Browns 24:49
First downs: Packers 27 Browns 19
Now, you don’t have to remind me that the only statistic that counts is the final score. The Packers need to play 60 minutes of football, they need to dominate from start to finish, but they are a young team. They are learning a new defense. Their offensive line is diminished. And Brett isn’t getting any younger. But this team will get better as the season goes on. The first four games, I’m not too worried about. The last four will define this season.
Notes from the game:
Yesterday’s spread featured home made deep dish pizza. The crust was made from “Krusteaz low carb bread mix” and the sauce was provided by a co-worker who wanted my expert opinion. Even Karen enjoyed it, though she poked the pepperoni slices off.
The Reggie White tribute was touching though we only saw about a minute of it. During the fourth quarter with the Packers down two, the defense needed a third down stop. The crowd, as if trying to conjure up the spirit of Reggie White began chanting “Reggie... Reggie... Reggie…” in hopes of inspiring the lackadaisical defense to rise to the occasion. I was moved to tears. The defense responded by giving up a 12 yard completion for a first down.
As former Wolverine Braylon Edwards broke an 80 yard touchdown I thought of my friend St. Ides. Then I thought about Notre Dame whooping the Wolverines asses last week and I felt better.
The Confederate Packers, much like the real Packers played well enough to lose. Week two was a squeaker, but I was beaten by St. Ides’s brother, the great hockey legend Dennis Potvin. (Karen honey, ask me and I’ll explain the joke). This brings the family score to St. Ides family 2, Samichlaus family zipperoni. Next week we face some dude named McBride, which sounds like something I could order at a McDonalds in Thailand. His team has T.O. My team has Robert Ferguson. Looks like another loss for my team.
That’s all for now….
Who said the Cats would beat the Pats?
Friday, September 16, 2005
Week 2 Picks
Well, first let me say, I took WAY too many road teams this week… Out of 16 games, I only took 3 home teams. That's a likely recipe for disaster… Except that I don't think anybody has figured out who's good and who's not yet. Plus, with stuff still in such flux, the bookies don't quite know the right amount of points to put. So I took the points more times than not, and the team getting the points is generally the visitor...
The great Samichlaus is going through some major changes on the home front, hence the paucity of humorous ministrations on these pages. However I would like to assure our millions of fans that Mr. & Mrs. Samichlaus are doing well and are ready to face any daunting challenges the world may throw at us. Sadly, the same could not be said for the Packers offense…
Ravens -4.5 over TITANS
Although it's very tempting to bet against Anthony Wright at QB… I think the Titans are in the bottom 5 teams in the league right now. The Ravens defense is still very good, and McNair isn't getting any younger. A defensive or special teams score would not be a huge surprise. Ravens 20, Titans 6.
It’s hard for me to provide expert analysis about games that I couldn’t give a rats ass about. This is a fine example of one. I like the Ravens to bounce back from the Indy loss on all fronts. Ravens win 23 - 10
Bills +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
Both teams looked good last week.. Buffalo against the horrendous Texans, and the Bucs against the over-hyped Vikes. This should be a good battle of defenses. Cadillac Williams looked good in his debut, but the Bills run D ought to be tougher than Minnesota. Could this be the week J.P. Losman steps up and makes a big play to win the game? Probably not, but it should be close, no matter who wins. Bills 20, Bucs 17.
Losman has to face a real defense this week, and as much as I like the Bills this year, I see some growing pains in week 2 for the young quarterback. Tampa 20 Buffalo 10
Lions -2.5 over CHI
So, let's see… The Lions defense shut down the supposedly potent Green Bay offense last week. But their offense didn't exactly light it up against their supposedly dreadful defense. Chicago did about what was expected - their weak offense didn't do much against the solid Skins defense. And their good defense held down the weak Skins offense. Could it be the Lions defense is much improved? Maybe. But their offense still seems to stink. This is probably my toughest pick this week, but I'm going to go with the Lions. Yes, it's in Chicago, but it's not cold yet. Lions 13, Bears 10.
I like the Lions in this one as well, but a lot more than St. Ides does. Yes, they looked pretty good against the Packers, but did anyone notice how bad Chicago looked against the Redskins? Probably not, as even die hard Skins and Bears fans were tuning that one out after the second quarter. Weak armed Joey Harrington won’t have any problems with the weather: it’s going to be 82 and sunny, no wind. Detroit builds on last week’s win 27 - 6
Jaguars +9.5 over COLTS
Well, the Jaguars defense shutout the Seahawks in the second half last week. And although Seattle's offense is nowhere near as potent as the Colts, I do think Jacksonville's defense is solid. Flip it around, and we'll find out if the Colts defense really is much better or if the Ravens offense was just brutal. I think the Colts will win, but a late garbage touchdown will prevent them from covering almost 10 points. Colts 31, Jaguars 26.
Colts at home huh? Yeah, that’s a lot of points to cover but as I said last week the Colts can be scary good this year. I think this is Indy’s year. Colts 38 Jaguars 24
Vikings +3.5 over BENGALS
You know, the way I make these picks is I go through the teams and spreads, think about them for a sec, type out all my picks, then submit my "official" pool picks where I can win money. I may have to change that approach because the more I look at my picks after the actual submitting of them, the more I start to second guess some of them. This is one of them. The first thing that popped into my mind when I saw these two teams was "Vikings good, Bengals bad." Then when I just started typing this, I thought "Mike Tice" and suddenly I'm doubting this pick. But for the sake of consistency, I'll attempt to defend this choice. The Bengals defense is not nearly as good as Tampa Bay, and Culpepper only has a handful of those god awful 4-5 turnover games per season. The chances of him having two in a row are pretty slim. Plus, just as the Bengals are getting some good press and confidence, they're due for a stinker. Vikings 31, Bengals 20.
Did Mike Tice always sound like Herman Munster, or is that new? The Vikings are the proverbial pitcher with the million dollar arm and the ten cent brain. Tice is an idiot and Boomer Esiason really likes the Bengals Carson Palmer. Did I mention that last week? Bengals 34 Vikings 31 in the Samichlaus Shocker to everyone not named Samichlaus of the week.
Pats -3.5 over CAR
If Carolina couldn't beat the Saints, I'm not picking them over the Pats. Yes, the Saints are playing emotionally inspired ball. The Pats have been playing like that for years now. Basically, I'm not picking against the Patriots until they lose a game. Patriots 26, Panthers 13.
With fear and apologies to Anonymous, I’m picking the Cats. Sorry, but the Patriots didn’t exactly knock my socks off last week. Then again, they are the least flashy winningest team I’ve ever seen. I’m going out on a catwalk here: Cats 17 Pats 13
HOUSTON +6.5 over Steelers
One of the few home teams I'm taking this weak, and I'll probably regret it. Is Houston really that bad? I guess we'll find out. But this has "trap game" written all over it for the Steelers. A turnover or two, and the Texans can make a game of this. Or not. I just felt the need to take a home team. Steelers 26, Texans 20.
It’s the pretty little quarterback against the quarterback whose nickname is “Big”. Hey, my wife gave me a great idea for a nickname for David Carr: “Deliverance”. I think Pittsburgh is for real, and I like that rookie running back whose nickname is “fast”. Yeah, the Steelers have the better nicknames even with “The Bus” injured. Steelers win it “Big” 34 -17
Niners +13.5 over EAGLES
The Eagles will have something to prove this week after the rough loss in Atlanta. And, before the season started, this seemed like a blowout. However, the Niners upset the Rams last week and showed a bit of fight. And McNabb might not play this week. The Eagles will probably win on sheer defense alone, but not by 2 touchdowns they won't. Eagles 23, Niners 10.
You know, you’ll get no argument from me. I think that analysis is dead on balls accurate. I like the Eagles 24 – 17.
Falcons +0.5 over SEAHAWKS
I took this as my "Best Bet" pick this week. As good as Atlanta looked and as bad as Seattle looked, there's no way I can see the Seahawks winning this game. None. 0-2 here we come, baby! The Falcons defense is better than the Jaguars, and I don't see Seattle's revamped defense being able to contain Vick. It could get ugly. (Maybe this is reverse psychology, maybe it isn't. I'm not telling.) Falcons 27, Seahawks 13.
Let me officially screw St. Ides. I’m taking the Seahawks to win at home. A Mike Holmgren team doesn’t open 0 – 2, not with this much talent. Seahawks 31 – Vick’s Clap infested Penis 27.
ARIZONA -1.5 over Rams
Both teams lost games on the road they were expected to win. People are quickly jumping off of the Cardinals bandwagon. But not so fast. The Rams suck on the road. And there's some internal conflict behind the scenes in St. Louis, including one of their executive leaving a death threat on the answering machine of a reporter who wrote a not-so-flattering article. Nice. Although I hate to bet on Kurt Warner, I can see him being a little more fired up playing against his old team who gave up on him. And he does have good weapons at WR. He just needs his o-line to not totally suck. And against the Rams mediocre defense, they should be able to not suck. Cardinals 31, Rams 27.
Officially count me off the Cardinal bandwagon. What was I thinking? This is a tough game to forecast but here’s my take: the Rams battled back like crazy against the Niners last week. It was too little too late, but they showed some heart. As far as Warner is concerned, well lets just say that fundamentalist Christians have been on my distasteful list lately. I like the Rams 27 - 20
PACKERS -6.5 over Cleveland
The Packers limp home from Detroit, after a rough loss and losing Jevon Walker for the year. Cleveland got killed in their opener at home against arch-rival Cincinnati. Both teams need a win. I think the Packers are more talented, and home field helps too. Maybe their defense isn't as bad as advertised? Even if it is, Cleveland isn't exactly a top 5 offense. Packers 27, Browns 17.
After last weeks game, Karen and I agreed that we pitied the team that was going to have to face Favre this week. To say he was pissed during the final drive last week would be an understatement. Robert Ferguson steps in for Javon Walker and has a huge game. Pack wins an easy one, 31 – 10
Dolphins +6.5 over JETS
Here's betting on a few easy things I think: Nick Saban is a good coach. Gus Frerrotte isn't as bad as people think. Chad Pennington either sucks or is still hurting. Herm Edwards is not a good coach. And the Miami defense is still among the league's best. Fins 20, Jets 10.
Well, I like Herm Edwards. He kind of reminds me of New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, you know, desperate…on the edge of a nervous breakdown. The Jets fans will be screaming “Just End The Season” as Saban makes a believer out of Samichlaus: Miami 30 Jets 17
Chargers + 3.5 over BRONCOS
The Chargers had a tough loss last week. For those of you who don't give a flying fuck about the AFC West, the Chargers had the ball 1st and goal at the 7 with time running out. A TD gives them a win over Dallas. They couldn't get it done. That wouldn't be so bad except that their top red zone threat (and probably one of the best in the entire league) Antonio Gates was setting out with a team-imposed suspension because he arrived at camp a day late. Gates said it was due to some travel complications, but the team was unyielding. Now, if they miss the playoffs because of being stubborn about suspending their best player, that will haunt them for years to come. Gates will be back this week. And Denver is in trouble. The Jake Plummer era in Denver could be approaching an ugly end. Chargers 24, Broncos 17.
Whatever. Broncos uhh, lets see, 24 and the Bolts, hmmm, 21??? OK. There. Denver wins 24 -21
Chiefs -1.5 over RAIDERS
Two of the biggest stories from week 1 involve the (seemingly) improved defense of the Colts and Chiefs. Which, with their already high-powered offenses, could put them at the top of the league. I don't buy it so much yet on the Colts. I do buy it on the Chiefs. Between Surtain, Derrick Johnson, and Bell, those are three big-time names. I was hoping seattle might have had a shot at drafting Johnson. Instead, we got Lofa in round 2. Collins and Moss will probably be good for a score or two, but not enough. Chiefs 33, Raiders 20.
Mr. St. Ides and I are not seeing eye to eye this week at all! As a rule I always favor the Raiders at home (unless they are playing on the day after the death of one of the parents of the opposing QB) and whoever is home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs like the Raiders are great at home and mediocre on the road. I’ll play the tendency: Raiders 34 Chiefs 20
Saints +3.5 over GIANTS
With what's happened in New Orleans, the Saints are a huge story right now. It's only one game, but they beat a tough Panthers team in Carolina. Even their "home" games now won't be true home games, split between San Antonio and Baton Rogue. Which means they'll probably be the underdog most weeks this season. Well, I might just bet them every week. Something unheard of just last season during the height of the inconsistent Jim Haslett/Aaron Brooks era. The team does have talent, and this sort of thing might just be the sort of kick in the ass they need to get over the hump. I think Haslett's job is safe for the season. Now, this week, they go into Giant stadium as the "home team" in spirit only. The crowd will be overwhelmingly blue. But Eli Manning is from New Orleans. I heard him on the radio this morning, and he was talking about how hard it has been to see footage of places he grew up just destroyed. How his parents wanted to come to the game Monday night, but are still dealing with the aftermath, and won't be able to make it. And how he and Peyton had been down there already to help give out supplies to the victims. His home was destroyed. And his opponent represents his home. Now, I don't think Eli is going to throw the game - he's paid by the Giants. But I just think that emotionally and sentimentally, and maybe even a little subconsciously, he wants the Saints to win. After all, he's only human. And it's only a game. Saints 27, Giants 24.
That is an amazing analysis. Dr. Phil would be proud, and I’m sold. That not withstanding I’ve liked the Saints all along in this one. There’s just been too much talk about how unfair it is that the Giants have an extra home game. The laws of karma / dogma decree that the Gints will lose. Who came up with that spelling anyway? It saves one fucking letter. Saints 24 GiAnts 10
Skins +6.5 over COWBOYS
After an impressive victory in San Diego last week, it's time for Drew Bledsoe to revert to his old "holds the ball too much" and "makes bad decisions" self against a very good Skins defense. Mark Brunell takes over at QB. And while that in itself probably isn't enough to win the game, he ought to be more competent than Ramsey. Here is what I wrote a week ago in my NFC QB analysis: "Look for Ramsey to be benched or "injured" by week 8, and Campbell to come in and possibly make a playoff push. Ramsey is unlikely to land a starting job elsewhere." Well, this came sooner than expected, so it's Brunell for now instead of Campbell. Still, should be a low scoring game, and I'll take the points. Cowboys 17, Redskins 13.
I’m not convince the Skins D is all that, and I have no clue what to make of Dallas. The ‘boys are in less turmoil that the ‘skins, at least they know who their QB is. That’s good enough to win but not good enough to cover. Take the Skins and the points: Boys 17 – Skins 14
Season Total:
St. Ides: 7-9
Samichlaus: 7-9
The great Samichlaus is going through some major changes on the home front, hence the paucity of humorous ministrations on these pages. However I would like to assure our millions of fans that Mr. & Mrs. Samichlaus are doing well and are ready to face any daunting challenges the world may throw at us. Sadly, the same could not be said for the Packers offense…
Ravens -4.5 over TITANS
Although it's very tempting to bet against Anthony Wright at QB… I think the Titans are in the bottom 5 teams in the league right now. The Ravens defense is still very good, and McNair isn't getting any younger. A defensive or special teams score would not be a huge surprise. Ravens 20, Titans 6.
It’s hard for me to provide expert analysis about games that I couldn’t give a rats ass about. This is a fine example of one. I like the Ravens to bounce back from the Indy loss on all fronts. Ravens win 23 - 10
Bills +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
Both teams looked good last week.. Buffalo against the horrendous Texans, and the Bucs against the over-hyped Vikes. This should be a good battle of defenses. Cadillac Williams looked good in his debut, but the Bills run D ought to be tougher than Minnesota. Could this be the week J.P. Losman steps up and makes a big play to win the game? Probably not, but it should be close, no matter who wins. Bills 20, Bucs 17.
Losman has to face a real defense this week, and as much as I like the Bills this year, I see some growing pains in week 2 for the young quarterback. Tampa 20 Buffalo 10
Lions -2.5 over CHI
So, let's see… The Lions defense shut down the supposedly potent Green Bay offense last week. But their offense didn't exactly light it up against their supposedly dreadful defense. Chicago did about what was expected - their weak offense didn't do much against the solid Skins defense. And their good defense held down the weak Skins offense. Could it be the Lions defense is much improved? Maybe. But their offense still seems to stink. This is probably my toughest pick this week, but I'm going to go with the Lions. Yes, it's in Chicago, but it's not cold yet. Lions 13, Bears 10.
I like the Lions in this one as well, but a lot more than St. Ides does. Yes, they looked pretty good against the Packers, but did anyone notice how bad Chicago looked against the Redskins? Probably not, as even die hard Skins and Bears fans were tuning that one out after the second quarter. Weak armed Joey Harrington won’t have any problems with the weather: it’s going to be 82 and sunny, no wind. Detroit builds on last week’s win 27 - 6
Jaguars +9.5 over COLTS
Well, the Jaguars defense shutout the Seahawks in the second half last week. And although Seattle's offense is nowhere near as potent as the Colts, I do think Jacksonville's defense is solid. Flip it around, and we'll find out if the Colts defense really is much better or if the Ravens offense was just brutal. I think the Colts will win, but a late garbage touchdown will prevent them from covering almost 10 points. Colts 31, Jaguars 26.
Colts at home huh? Yeah, that’s a lot of points to cover but as I said last week the Colts can be scary good this year. I think this is Indy’s year. Colts 38 Jaguars 24
Vikings +3.5 over BENGALS
You know, the way I make these picks is I go through the teams and spreads, think about them for a sec, type out all my picks, then submit my "official" pool picks where I can win money. I may have to change that approach because the more I look at my picks after the actual submitting of them, the more I start to second guess some of them. This is one of them. The first thing that popped into my mind when I saw these two teams was "Vikings good, Bengals bad." Then when I just started typing this, I thought "Mike Tice" and suddenly I'm doubting this pick. But for the sake of consistency, I'll attempt to defend this choice. The Bengals defense is not nearly as good as Tampa Bay, and Culpepper only has a handful of those god awful 4-5 turnover games per season. The chances of him having two in a row are pretty slim. Plus, just as the Bengals are getting some good press and confidence, they're due for a stinker. Vikings 31, Bengals 20.
Did Mike Tice always sound like Herman Munster, or is that new? The Vikings are the proverbial pitcher with the million dollar arm and the ten cent brain. Tice is an idiot and Boomer Esiason really likes the Bengals Carson Palmer. Did I mention that last week? Bengals 34 Vikings 31 in the Samichlaus Shocker to everyone not named Samichlaus of the week.
Pats -3.5 over CAR
If Carolina couldn't beat the Saints, I'm not picking them over the Pats. Yes, the Saints are playing emotionally inspired ball. The Pats have been playing like that for years now. Basically, I'm not picking against the Patriots until they lose a game. Patriots 26, Panthers 13.
With fear and apologies to Anonymous, I’m picking the Cats. Sorry, but the Patriots didn’t exactly knock my socks off last week. Then again, they are the least flashy winningest team I’ve ever seen. I’m going out on a catwalk here: Cats 17 Pats 13
HOUSTON +6.5 over Steelers
One of the few home teams I'm taking this weak, and I'll probably regret it. Is Houston really that bad? I guess we'll find out. But this has "trap game" written all over it for the Steelers. A turnover or two, and the Texans can make a game of this. Or not. I just felt the need to take a home team. Steelers 26, Texans 20.
It’s the pretty little quarterback against the quarterback whose nickname is “Big”. Hey, my wife gave me a great idea for a nickname for David Carr: “Deliverance”. I think Pittsburgh is for real, and I like that rookie running back whose nickname is “fast”. Yeah, the Steelers have the better nicknames even with “The Bus” injured. Steelers win it “Big” 34 -17
Niners +13.5 over EAGLES
The Eagles will have something to prove this week after the rough loss in Atlanta. And, before the season started, this seemed like a blowout. However, the Niners upset the Rams last week and showed a bit of fight. And McNabb might not play this week. The Eagles will probably win on sheer defense alone, but not by 2 touchdowns they won't. Eagles 23, Niners 10.
You know, you’ll get no argument from me. I think that analysis is dead on balls accurate. I like the Eagles 24 – 17.
Falcons +0.5 over SEAHAWKS
I took this as my "Best Bet" pick this week. As good as Atlanta looked and as bad as Seattle looked, there's no way I can see the Seahawks winning this game. None. 0-2 here we come, baby! The Falcons defense is better than the Jaguars, and I don't see Seattle's revamped defense being able to contain Vick. It could get ugly. (Maybe this is reverse psychology, maybe it isn't. I'm not telling.) Falcons 27, Seahawks 13.
Let me officially screw St. Ides. I’m taking the Seahawks to win at home. A Mike Holmgren team doesn’t open 0 – 2, not with this much talent. Seahawks 31 – Vick’s Clap infested Penis 27.
ARIZONA -1.5 over Rams
Both teams lost games on the road they were expected to win. People are quickly jumping off of the Cardinals bandwagon. But not so fast. The Rams suck on the road. And there's some internal conflict behind the scenes in St. Louis, including one of their executive leaving a death threat on the answering machine of a reporter who wrote a not-so-flattering article. Nice. Although I hate to bet on Kurt Warner, I can see him being a little more fired up playing against his old team who gave up on him. And he does have good weapons at WR. He just needs his o-line to not totally suck. And against the Rams mediocre defense, they should be able to not suck. Cardinals 31, Rams 27.
Officially count me off the Cardinal bandwagon. What was I thinking? This is a tough game to forecast but here’s my take: the Rams battled back like crazy against the Niners last week. It was too little too late, but they showed some heart. As far as Warner is concerned, well lets just say that fundamentalist Christians have been on my distasteful list lately. I like the Rams 27 - 20
PACKERS -6.5 over Cleveland
The Packers limp home from Detroit, after a rough loss and losing Jevon Walker for the year. Cleveland got killed in their opener at home against arch-rival Cincinnati. Both teams need a win. I think the Packers are more talented, and home field helps too. Maybe their defense isn't as bad as advertised? Even if it is, Cleveland isn't exactly a top 5 offense. Packers 27, Browns 17.
After last weeks game, Karen and I agreed that we pitied the team that was going to have to face Favre this week. To say he was pissed during the final drive last week would be an understatement. Robert Ferguson steps in for Javon Walker and has a huge game. Pack wins an easy one, 31 – 10
Dolphins +6.5 over JETS
Here's betting on a few easy things I think: Nick Saban is a good coach. Gus Frerrotte isn't as bad as people think. Chad Pennington either sucks or is still hurting. Herm Edwards is not a good coach. And the Miami defense is still among the league's best. Fins 20, Jets 10.
Well, I like Herm Edwards. He kind of reminds me of New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, you know, desperate…on the edge of a nervous breakdown. The Jets fans will be screaming “Just End The Season” as Saban makes a believer out of Samichlaus: Miami 30 Jets 17
Chargers + 3.5 over BRONCOS
The Chargers had a tough loss last week. For those of you who don't give a flying fuck about the AFC West, the Chargers had the ball 1st and goal at the 7 with time running out. A TD gives them a win over Dallas. They couldn't get it done. That wouldn't be so bad except that their top red zone threat (and probably one of the best in the entire league) Antonio Gates was setting out with a team-imposed suspension because he arrived at camp a day late. Gates said it was due to some travel complications, but the team was unyielding. Now, if they miss the playoffs because of being stubborn about suspending their best player, that will haunt them for years to come. Gates will be back this week. And Denver is in trouble. The Jake Plummer era in Denver could be approaching an ugly end. Chargers 24, Broncos 17.
Whatever. Broncos uhh, lets see, 24 and the Bolts, hmmm, 21??? OK. There. Denver wins 24 -21
Chiefs -1.5 over RAIDERS
Two of the biggest stories from week 1 involve the (seemingly) improved defense of the Colts and Chiefs. Which, with their already high-powered offenses, could put them at the top of the league. I don't buy it so much yet on the Colts. I do buy it on the Chiefs. Between Surtain, Derrick Johnson, and Bell, those are three big-time names. I was hoping seattle might have had a shot at drafting Johnson. Instead, we got Lofa in round 2. Collins and Moss will probably be good for a score or two, but not enough. Chiefs 33, Raiders 20.
Mr. St. Ides and I are not seeing eye to eye this week at all! As a rule I always favor the Raiders at home (unless they are playing on the day after the death of one of the parents of the opposing QB) and whoever is home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs like the Raiders are great at home and mediocre on the road. I’ll play the tendency: Raiders 34 Chiefs 20
Saints +3.5 over GIANTS
With what's happened in New Orleans, the Saints are a huge story right now. It's only one game, but they beat a tough Panthers team in Carolina. Even their "home" games now won't be true home games, split between San Antonio and Baton Rogue. Which means they'll probably be the underdog most weeks this season. Well, I might just bet them every week. Something unheard of just last season during the height of the inconsistent Jim Haslett/Aaron Brooks era. The team does have talent, and this sort of thing might just be the sort of kick in the ass they need to get over the hump. I think Haslett's job is safe for the season. Now, this week, they go into Giant stadium as the "home team" in spirit only. The crowd will be overwhelmingly blue. But Eli Manning is from New Orleans. I heard him on the radio this morning, and he was talking about how hard it has been to see footage of places he grew up just destroyed. How his parents wanted to come to the game Monday night, but are still dealing with the aftermath, and won't be able to make it. And how he and Peyton had been down there already to help give out supplies to the victims. His home was destroyed. And his opponent represents his home. Now, I don't think Eli is going to throw the game - he's paid by the Giants. But I just think that emotionally and sentimentally, and maybe even a little subconsciously, he wants the Saints to win. After all, he's only human. And it's only a game. Saints 27, Giants 24.
That is an amazing analysis. Dr. Phil would be proud, and I’m sold. That not withstanding I’ve liked the Saints all along in this one. There’s just been too much talk about how unfair it is that the Giants have an extra home game. The laws of karma / dogma decree that the Gints will lose. Who came up with that spelling anyway? It saves one fucking letter. Saints 24 GiAnts 10
Skins +6.5 over COWBOYS
After an impressive victory in San Diego last week, it's time for Drew Bledsoe to revert to his old "holds the ball too much" and "makes bad decisions" self against a very good Skins defense. Mark Brunell takes over at QB. And while that in itself probably isn't enough to win the game, he ought to be more competent than Ramsey. Here is what I wrote a week ago in my NFC QB analysis: "Look for Ramsey to be benched or "injured" by week 8, and Campbell to come in and possibly make a playoff push. Ramsey is unlikely to land a starting job elsewhere." Well, this came sooner than expected, so it's Brunell for now instead of Campbell. Still, should be a low scoring game, and I'll take the points. Cowboys 17, Redskins 13.
I’m not convince the Skins D is all that, and I have no clue what to make of Dallas. The ‘boys are in less turmoil that the ‘skins, at least they know who their QB is. That’s good enough to win but not good enough to cover. Take the Skins and the points: Boys 17 – Skins 14
Season Total:
St. Ides: 7-9
Samichlaus: 7-9
Monday, September 12, 2005
Week 1 - Lowered Expectations
Okay, maybe I was high on drugs when I picked Seattle to go to the Super Bowl. Let's just say that after a 5 turnover performance (including fumbling away the opening kickoff, and 3 picks by Hasselstiff), I'm going to just already write off the season, and expect yet another mediocre finish. Holmgren will be finished, the team will get a sucky middle round draft pick, and the cycle of not winning any playoff games continues. Lower expectations are so much easier to deal with.
Other things I learned during week 1...
* The Rams are still poorly coached and suck on the road.
* Maybe the Niners and Dolphins are not the two worst teams in the league. The new candidates? Cleveland and Tennessee.
* The Sports Guy put it best in his picks - giving Nick Saban months to prepare for defending Jake Plummer is probably too much to overcome.
* Is it too early for everybody to jump off the Arizona bandwagon? Is it too early to jump on the Giants bandwagon? For the record, I never bought into the Arizona thing. Their offensive line was as bad as advertised and their defense was nowhere near as good.
* As if the Packers didn't have enough to worry about, now Jevon Walker is done for the season with a torn ACL. Favre is probably rethinking his decision to come back at this point…
* I'm not sure if his shoulder still not healthy or if Chad Pennington just sucks. I'm going to say it's a bit of both.
* I'd say the Vikings missed Moss, maybe just a little bit, in week 1.
* Nice win by the Saints. Damn the "local team" rules that caused Channel 5 to switch from the Saints game (which apparently was broadcast nationally on FOX due to the hurricane) at 4:15 to the Giants game. Just before Carney kicked the winning field goal.
* I'm still not sure is the Dallas win means maybe the Cowboys really ARE this year's Chargers, or if it means that this year's Chargers have reverted to the crappy team they were supposed to be last year.
* Not a real impressive week 1 with our picks. We can break even if Philly wins tonight: St. Ides: 7-8, Samichlaus: 7-8
And, as my colleague pointed out, Michigan also lost a huge game at home against Notre Dame. There were a few calls that kind of went the way of the Irish. The big one being when on first and goal on a QB sneak, Henne apparently got into the end zone. But it was called down on like the one inch line. Then on second down, another QB sneak, and he seemingly doesn't get in after a huge pile-up. But wait! It's being reviewed! Somehow, the replay booth saw that he might have lost the ball. And, sure enough, it looks like he did, and ND recovered. It was a bit sketchy though that they reviewed the second play, but not the first. In college, neither coaches nor on-the-field officials have the ability to call for a replay. It can only be initiated by the officials in the booth. A few plays later, while Notre Dame is trying to kill the clock, the inexplicably call a rollout pass. The Irish QB is hit from behind, fumbles the ball, Michigan recovers deep in Irish territory. Oops, guess what. Replay initiatied from the booth again. His knee was down, no fumble, Notre Damn keeps the ball.
Now, both calls did seem correct. What I take issue with is their inconsistency on initiating the replays. And really, Michigan did deserve to lose the game. Hart got hurt early (although his backup did a fine job). Henne looked fucking awful.
Really, the only consolation all weekend was it looks like I'm going to win all 3 of my fantasy games this week. And the most threatening Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Iowa) and NFC West teams (Arizona and St. Louis) all lost as well. How ironic is it that the Niners stand alone atop the NFC West right now?
But, as my dad likes to say, "This shit is like wrestling. These teams will look awful one week and then great the next! You can't predict it!"
Although I'm not sure how that makes it like wrestling. Since wrestling is fake and you can predict it. But yeah, this whole parity thing in the NFL is getting out of control.
Other things I learned during week 1...
* The Rams are still poorly coached and suck on the road.
* Maybe the Niners and Dolphins are not the two worst teams in the league. The new candidates? Cleveland and Tennessee.
* The Sports Guy put it best in his picks - giving Nick Saban months to prepare for defending Jake Plummer is probably too much to overcome.
* Is it too early for everybody to jump off the Arizona bandwagon? Is it too early to jump on the Giants bandwagon? For the record, I never bought into the Arizona thing. Their offensive line was as bad as advertised and their defense was nowhere near as good.
* As if the Packers didn't have enough to worry about, now Jevon Walker is done for the season with a torn ACL. Favre is probably rethinking his decision to come back at this point…
* I'm not sure if his shoulder still not healthy or if Chad Pennington just sucks. I'm going to say it's a bit of both.
* I'd say the Vikings missed Moss, maybe just a little bit, in week 1.
* Nice win by the Saints. Damn the "local team" rules that caused Channel 5 to switch from the Saints game (which apparently was broadcast nationally on FOX due to the hurricane) at 4:15 to the Giants game. Just before Carney kicked the winning field goal.
* I'm still not sure is the Dallas win means maybe the Cowboys really ARE this year's Chargers, or if it means that this year's Chargers have reverted to the crappy team they were supposed to be last year.
* Not a real impressive week 1 with our picks. We can break even if Philly wins tonight: St. Ides: 7-8, Samichlaus: 7-8
And, as my colleague pointed out, Michigan also lost a huge game at home against Notre Dame. There were a few calls that kind of went the way of the Irish. The big one being when on first and goal on a QB sneak, Henne apparently got into the end zone. But it was called down on like the one inch line. Then on second down, another QB sneak, and he seemingly doesn't get in after a huge pile-up. But wait! It's being reviewed! Somehow, the replay booth saw that he might have lost the ball. And, sure enough, it looks like he did, and ND recovered. It was a bit sketchy though that they reviewed the second play, but not the first. In college, neither coaches nor on-the-field officials have the ability to call for a replay. It can only be initiated by the officials in the booth. A few plays later, while Notre Dame is trying to kill the clock, the inexplicably call a rollout pass. The Irish QB is hit from behind, fumbles the ball, Michigan recovers deep in Irish territory. Oops, guess what. Replay initiatied from the booth again. His knee was down, no fumble, Notre Damn keeps the ball.
Now, both calls did seem correct. What I take issue with is their inconsistency on initiating the replays. And really, Michigan did deserve to lose the game. Hart got hurt early (although his backup did a fine job). Henne looked fucking awful.
Really, the only consolation all weekend was it looks like I'm going to win all 3 of my fantasy games this week. And the most threatening Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Iowa) and NFC West teams (Arizona and St. Louis) all lost as well. How ironic is it that the Niners stand alone atop the NFC West right now?
But, as my dad likes to say, "This shit is like wrestling. These teams will look awful one week and then great the next! You can't predict it!"
Although I'm not sure how that makes it like wrestling. Since wrestling is fake and you can predict it. But yeah, this whole parity thing in the NFL is getting out of control.
Blog for 9/12/05
What the fuck?
A total lost weekend for the dynamic duo. Let’s start with a quick review:
At the Samichlaus household:
The Packers score 3 points and lose to Detroit 17 – 3. Javon Walker tears his ACL and is probably out for the season. To add insult to injury, the Confederate Packers are trounced by St. Ides’s Meisterbrau Shotguns as our 13 starters manage to muster 44.5 points. On a side note our 5 bench players scored 40.
At the St. Ides household:
The former #3 ranked Michigan loses on Saturday to of all teams the former #20 Notre Dame. This is followed up with a rank performance by the Seahawks on Sunday as Seattle loses to Jacksonville 26 -14.
Don’t expect too much happy talk on SBS today.
A total lost weekend for the dynamic duo. Let’s start with a quick review:
At the Samichlaus household:
The Packers score 3 points and lose to Detroit 17 – 3. Javon Walker tears his ACL and is probably out for the season. To add insult to injury, the Confederate Packers are trounced by St. Ides’s Meisterbrau Shotguns as our 13 starters manage to muster 44.5 points. On a side note our 5 bench players scored 40.
At the St. Ides household:
The former #3 ranked Michigan loses on Saturday to of all teams the former #20 Notre Dame. This is followed up with a rank performance by the Seahawks on Sunday as Seattle loses to Jacksonville 26 -14.
Don’t expect too much happy talk on SBS today.
Friday, September 9, 2005
Week 1 Picks
Starting off 1-0 is a good way to begin! And yes, I picked the Pats last night, even though I was sweating out those 7.5 points after that Moss TD, yikes. Brady looked good. Kerry Collins didn't. And the Pats won as usual.
Now on to the rest of week 1!...
You know the drill.. Home team in CAPS, St. Ides picks in blue, Samichlaus picks in green.
PATS (-7.5) over the Raiders
Chalk up a winner here! I would have said something about how the Raiders D isn't very good, and how Kerry Collins would choke once the Pats defense confuses him a bit. I would have been right. ;)
I had the Pats too, but I never thought the score would be as close as it was. Honestly I would have had the Pats winning 34 -16
Chicago (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
Two good defenses. Two crappy offenses. I think the Chicago D is slight better. And the defenses are a push. The game will be pretty close, so even if Chicago loses, take the points. Bears 16, Skins 13.
I’ve been in Richmond way too long ‘cause I’m buying all the Skins hype. In fact ‘ol Samichlaus took the Skins in his “eliminator” pool for week 1. Call it a combination of Skins hype and an inborn belief that the Bears will always suck Skins 17 Bears 10
CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Cinci
I meant to say it in the intro, but I'll say it here. Week 1 is probably the toughest week to pick. The pre-season really doesn't tell you enough about who has improved or gotten worse. Most people think Cleveland will totally suck this year. But it's opening day at home against the arch-rival Bengals. Trent Dilfer is better than quite a few starting QBs in the league, and I still believe Braylon Edwards will be good. This game should be close enough to go with the points. Browns 24, Bungles 20.
This morning I heard Boomer Esiason call Carson Palmer the best young QB in football. That’s good enough for me. Cleveland’s new head coach Romeo Crennel will be asking for his broadsword by the time this one’s over. That’s Shakespeare boys. I think St. Ides has it backwards: Bungles 24, Browns 20
Denver (-4.5) over MIAMI
Miami will challenge San Fran for worst team this year, but I think their D and running game ought to keep them from being the very worst. Still, I don't see Gus Frerotte leading this team to very many victories. Yes, even Jake Plummer ought to beat this team on the road. Broncos 23, Dolphins 13.
Yep. Add to the mix that Ricky Williams is out for four weeks and it’s last years Dolphins without Jim Bates. Broncos 31 Dolphins 10.
BUFFALO (-5.5) over Houston
This is kind of a lot of points to give for J.P. Losman's first game as a starter. But I think the Buffalo D is good enough to give David Carr absolute fits of madness. We all know how bad the Texans O-line is. Look for 4-6 sacks and 1-2 picks. Bills 20, Texans 10.
I watched Buffalo’s defensive line dominate the Packers twice in the preseason. Plus, big Sam Adams is on my fantasy team. The Bill will score a TD on defense lightening the load on Losman. There’s a great line in “Raging Bull”, after Jake Lamotta (DeNiro) absolutely massacres a boxer his wife referred to as a “good looking fighter”: “He ain’t pretty no more”. Can you say David Carr? Bills 24 Texans 14
New Orleans (+7.5) over CAROLINA
Tough call here. I mean, what can you say about New Orleans that hasn't already been said? Tough situation for the team and the area. Either they get destroyed or they play inspired and keep it close. Carolina is probably one of the top teams in the NFC this season, so it'll be a real test for the Saints. I say they make a game of it and cover, but lose a close one. Panthers 19, Saints 17.
I took New Orleans in this one too and here’s why: The Saints are going to be so friggin fired up, like beyond belief. Mark my words: they win it out right. Saints 20 Cats 17 in the Samichlaus “Shocker of the Week”
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over the Jets
I don't trust Pennington's arm. I think Herm Edwards is an awful coach. I think the Chiefs defense will be improved. And I think Priest Holmes will be ready to run wild and prove he's healthy again. Chiefs 34, Jets 23.
Arrowhead is probably the toughest field to win an away game. The Chiefs are good enough, and the Jets aren’t. Chiefs 41 Jets 13. Think I’m kidding? I’m not.
Seattle (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This will be a tough opened for Seattle. Either it's going to be like 90 degrees (and the Jags are forcing Seattle to wear their dark jerseys in the heat) or there will be heavy rain due to tropical storm Ophelia brewing off the coast. A lot of people are picking Byron Leftwich to make The Leap this year. I'm not one of them. The Jags D is good, but I think Seattle's offense should still be able to move the ball. The question in this game, and the whole season, is how good is Seattle's new defense? Let's not forget Fred Taylor didn't play much this pre-season and has a bum knee. If that doesn't help the Seahawks' run defense, I don't know what will. Seahawks 21, Jaguars 14
As my wife mentioned yesterday Ophelia will probably linger a bit longer then drift off and commit suicide. That’s also Shakespeare boys. I’ll say Seahawks 35 Jaguars 21
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
A lot of people love the Vikings this year. I think they'll probably win the division, but they'll lose some games they should win. Why? Simple - Mike Tice. He's not a good coach. Still, they ought to beat the Bucs. Handily. Vikings 37, Bucs 20.
The Bucs play the Vikings very tough and Jon Gruden can out coach Mike Tice any day of the week. Let me just get this off my chest: Tice is the biggest f’ing idiot I’ve ever seen become a head coach. Well, that’s not true. The Giants Ray Handley was a bigger idiot. Oh, and the Jets Rich Kotite. Yeah, and then there was Dan Devine and Scooter McLean in Green Bay. OK. Tice isn’t the biggest idiot to ever become a head coach, but he looks like the evil Private Investigator on the HBO series “Carnevial”. Bucs bust the Viking hype bubble: Bucs 24 Viqueens 13.
STEELERS (-7.5) over Tennessee
I think Big Ben is coming crashing down to earth early this season. But not week 1, not against this Titans defense that has lost every recognizable name. Steelers 27, Titans 17
The problem here is the Steelers have lost every recognizable name on offense, well except for Ben Roethlisberger. You want to bet that Mississippi native Steve McNair won’t be fired up for this game? Tennessee 27 Steelers 24
Arizona (+2.5) over the GIANTS
Everybody is jumping on the Arizona bandwagon. I'm not. But what the hell, might as well let it ride on them for week 1. How's this for a bit of irony. Last year at this time, Kurt Warner was starting for the Giants. A few games into the season, he ran into the defensive juggernaut known as the Arizona Cardinals, had an awful game, and got benched in favor of Eli Manning. So his last game as a starter was when he played for the Giants against the Cardinals. Can the Giants provide a little payback, and knock him out as well? It wouldn't be a stretch to think so. I'm going to take the Cardinals, but just barely. If they win, I can celebrate picking them. If they lose, I can celebrate them already being 0-1 in the same division as Seattle. Cardinals 26, Giants 23.
I think the Giants have a legitimate shot in this game, but here’s what I see happening: Warner’s going to play well against a defense he’s familiar with; The Arizona defense will play as good as advertised; Eli Manning is worse off than they’re admitting. Cardinals win 24-13
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Dallas
I'm not buying into the Drew Bledsoe resurrection. I'm not buying into the "Dallas is this year's Chargers!" bullshit. What I am buying into is LaDanian Tomlinson as the best RB in the NFL, and Drew Brees having enough talent that opposing defenses cannot stack the box with 8. Chargers 24, Cowboys 17.
I like the analysis, and I think that Bill Parcells was a great coach about 10 years ago. The game and time has passed him, no offense to the Orientals. Bolts 24 Boys 10.
Green Bay (+3.5) over DETROIT
Shootout, wild west style yo! If Joey Harrington cannot get it going against this defense, he's done for, stick a fork in him. This should be a fun game to watch. I think Favre does just enough to pull this one out, and Harrington does just enough to lose it. Packers 38, Lions 35.
The more I think about this game the more I like Detroit. But I’m taking the Pack. That’s pride fucking with me. Oh, and that’s Tarantino boys. Take the over. Packers 34 Lions 27.
St. Louis (-6.5) over SAN FRAN
Niners suck. Tim Rattay might put together a scoring drive or two against this mediocre defense, but not more than that. One thing that also has annoyed me this off-season is some of the "experts" raving about the Rams improved D. Uhm, all they did was add like 2 LBs that not many other teams had interest in. Yet Seattle's new D with 7 new starters is still questionable? The Rams D is just as suspect as the Seahawks. Still, the Niners suck. Rams 31, Niners 16
Who’s the worst team in the NFL, the Niners or the Dolphins? I’ll take the Niners in that competition but that’s about all I’ll be taking them for this season. I like St. Louis big: Rams 37 San Fran 13.
Indy (-3.5) over BALTIMORE
League's best offense versus league's best defense? Maybe. But what about the Ravens offense? Can Kyle Boller improve, and make key passes? Will Jamal Lewis bounce back from his jail sentence and be effective? I read somewhere (I think it was on ESPN) where some corrections officer wrote in and said that even his short prison term would have a big effect on his physical condition. They're fed generally crap food, and short-term inmates like Lewis don't get access to weights because of liability costs. So although it's trendy to say he bounces back with a vengeance, physically, he just might not be up for it. Colts 27, Ravens 23.
Indianapolis has been drafting defense for what, five years now? Eventually this has to click and I think this season it finally does. I also think Peyton Manning comes back to earth, though I have no worldly reason why. The Colts could be scary good, but I think this one is lower scoring that every one thinks it’s going to be. Colts 20 Ravens 13
Philly (-2.5) over ATLANTA
I said it in my QB analysis thingy, and I'll say it again - I think Michael Vick is overrated. Until he wins an important close game with his arm, I will continue to believe he can not lead a team to the Super Bowl. I suppose this would qualify as an important game, since it is on a Monday night against the defending NFC Champions. So, what do you say, Michael? Put away the tap-dancing shoes for a moment, and let's see you use that arm to win a game. I don't see it happening against this defense. Eagles 23, Falcons 16.
Vick and his filthy clap infested penis make me sick. I’m sick of Michael and sick of Marcus and sick of all the hype that surrounds them. In reality they are 2 gifted athletes who have questionable values and haven’t proven squat on the football field. In fact the only thing that disgusts me more than the Vicks is Philadelphia. That whole town is a friggin cesspool. Anyway, enough social commentary. Philly wins 24 – 20.
Now on to the rest of week 1!...
You know the drill.. Home team in CAPS, St. Ides picks in blue, Samichlaus picks in green.
PATS (-7.5) over the Raiders
Chalk up a winner here! I would have said something about how the Raiders D isn't very good, and how Kerry Collins would choke once the Pats defense confuses him a bit. I would have been right. ;)
I had the Pats too, but I never thought the score would be as close as it was. Honestly I would have had the Pats winning 34 -16
Chicago (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
Two good defenses. Two crappy offenses. I think the Chicago D is slight better. And the defenses are a push. The game will be pretty close, so even if Chicago loses, take the points. Bears 16, Skins 13.
I’ve been in Richmond way too long ‘cause I’m buying all the Skins hype. In fact ‘ol Samichlaus took the Skins in his “eliminator” pool for week 1. Call it a combination of Skins hype and an inborn belief that the Bears will always suck Skins 17 Bears 10
CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Cinci
I meant to say it in the intro, but I'll say it here. Week 1 is probably the toughest week to pick. The pre-season really doesn't tell you enough about who has improved or gotten worse. Most people think Cleveland will totally suck this year. But it's opening day at home against the arch-rival Bengals. Trent Dilfer is better than quite a few starting QBs in the league, and I still believe Braylon Edwards will be good. This game should be close enough to go with the points. Browns 24, Bungles 20.
This morning I heard Boomer Esiason call Carson Palmer the best young QB in football. That’s good enough for me. Cleveland’s new head coach Romeo Crennel will be asking for his broadsword by the time this one’s over. That’s Shakespeare boys. I think St. Ides has it backwards: Bungles 24, Browns 20
Denver (-4.5) over MIAMI
Miami will challenge San Fran for worst team this year, but I think their D and running game ought to keep them from being the very worst. Still, I don't see Gus Frerotte leading this team to very many victories. Yes, even Jake Plummer ought to beat this team on the road. Broncos 23, Dolphins 13.
Yep. Add to the mix that Ricky Williams is out for four weeks and it’s last years Dolphins without Jim Bates. Broncos 31 Dolphins 10.
BUFFALO (-5.5) over Houston
This is kind of a lot of points to give for J.P. Losman's first game as a starter. But I think the Buffalo D is good enough to give David Carr absolute fits of madness. We all know how bad the Texans O-line is. Look for 4-6 sacks and 1-2 picks. Bills 20, Texans 10.
I watched Buffalo’s defensive line dominate the Packers twice in the preseason. Plus, big Sam Adams is on my fantasy team. The Bill will score a TD on defense lightening the load on Losman. There’s a great line in “Raging Bull”, after Jake Lamotta (DeNiro) absolutely massacres a boxer his wife referred to as a “good looking fighter”: “He ain’t pretty no more”. Can you say David Carr? Bills 24 Texans 14
New Orleans (+7.5) over CAROLINA
Tough call here. I mean, what can you say about New Orleans that hasn't already been said? Tough situation for the team and the area. Either they get destroyed or they play inspired and keep it close. Carolina is probably one of the top teams in the NFC this season, so it'll be a real test for the Saints. I say they make a game of it and cover, but lose a close one. Panthers 19, Saints 17.
I took New Orleans in this one too and here’s why: The Saints are going to be so friggin fired up, like beyond belief. Mark my words: they win it out right. Saints 20 Cats 17 in the Samichlaus “Shocker of the Week”
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over the Jets
I don't trust Pennington's arm. I think Herm Edwards is an awful coach. I think the Chiefs defense will be improved. And I think Priest Holmes will be ready to run wild and prove he's healthy again. Chiefs 34, Jets 23.
Arrowhead is probably the toughest field to win an away game. The Chiefs are good enough, and the Jets aren’t. Chiefs 41 Jets 13. Think I’m kidding? I’m not.
Seattle (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This will be a tough opened for Seattle. Either it's going to be like 90 degrees (and the Jags are forcing Seattle to wear their dark jerseys in the heat) or there will be heavy rain due to tropical storm Ophelia brewing off the coast. A lot of people are picking Byron Leftwich to make The Leap this year. I'm not one of them. The Jags D is good, but I think Seattle's offense should still be able to move the ball. The question in this game, and the whole season, is how good is Seattle's new defense? Let's not forget Fred Taylor didn't play much this pre-season and has a bum knee. If that doesn't help the Seahawks' run defense, I don't know what will. Seahawks 21, Jaguars 14
As my wife mentioned yesterday Ophelia will probably linger a bit longer then drift off and commit suicide. That’s also Shakespeare boys. I’ll say Seahawks 35 Jaguars 21
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
A lot of people love the Vikings this year. I think they'll probably win the division, but they'll lose some games they should win. Why? Simple - Mike Tice. He's not a good coach. Still, they ought to beat the Bucs. Handily. Vikings 37, Bucs 20.
The Bucs play the Vikings very tough and Jon Gruden can out coach Mike Tice any day of the week. Let me just get this off my chest: Tice is the biggest f’ing idiot I’ve ever seen become a head coach. Well, that’s not true. The Giants Ray Handley was a bigger idiot. Oh, and the Jets Rich Kotite. Yeah, and then there was Dan Devine and Scooter McLean in Green Bay. OK. Tice isn’t the biggest idiot to ever become a head coach, but he looks like the evil Private Investigator on the HBO series “Carnevial”. Bucs bust the Viking hype bubble: Bucs 24 Viqueens 13.
STEELERS (-7.5) over Tennessee
I think Big Ben is coming crashing down to earth early this season. But not week 1, not against this Titans defense that has lost every recognizable name. Steelers 27, Titans 17
The problem here is the Steelers have lost every recognizable name on offense, well except for Ben Roethlisberger. You want to bet that Mississippi native Steve McNair won’t be fired up for this game? Tennessee 27 Steelers 24
Arizona (+2.5) over the GIANTS
Everybody is jumping on the Arizona bandwagon. I'm not. But what the hell, might as well let it ride on them for week 1. How's this for a bit of irony. Last year at this time, Kurt Warner was starting for the Giants. A few games into the season, he ran into the defensive juggernaut known as the Arizona Cardinals, had an awful game, and got benched in favor of Eli Manning. So his last game as a starter was when he played for the Giants against the Cardinals. Can the Giants provide a little payback, and knock him out as well? It wouldn't be a stretch to think so. I'm going to take the Cardinals, but just barely. If they win, I can celebrate picking them. If they lose, I can celebrate them already being 0-1 in the same division as Seattle. Cardinals 26, Giants 23.
I think the Giants have a legitimate shot in this game, but here’s what I see happening: Warner’s going to play well against a defense he’s familiar with; The Arizona defense will play as good as advertised; Eli Manning is worse off than they’re admitting. Cardinals win 24-13
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Dallas
I'm not buying into the Drew Bledsoe resurrection. I'm not buying into the "Dallas is this year's Chargers!" bullshit. What I am buying into is LaDanian Tomlinson as the best RB in the NFL, and Drew Brees having enough talent that opposing defenses cannot stack the box with 8. Chargers 24, Cowboys 17.
I like the analysis, and I think that Bill Parcells was a great coach about 10 years ago. The game and time has passed him, no offense to the Orientals. Bolts 24 Boys 10.
Green Bay (+3.5) over DETROIT
Shootout, wild west style yo! If Joey Harrington cannot get it going against this defense, he's done for, stick a fork in him. This should be a fun game to watch. I think Favre does just enough to pull this one out, and Harrington does just enough to lose it. Packers 38, Lions 35.
The more I think about this game the more I like Detroit. But I’m taking the Pack. That’s pride fucking with me. Oh, and that’s Tarantino boys. Take the over. Packers 34 Lions 27.
St. Louis (-6.5) over SAN FRAN
Niners suck. Tim Rattay might put together a scoring drive or two against this mediocre defense, but not more than that. One thing that also has annoyed me this off-season is some of the "experts" raving about the Rams improved D. Uhm, all they did was add like 2 LBs that not many other teams had interest in. Yet Seattle's new D with 7 new starters is still questionable? The Rams D is just as suspect as the Seahawks. Still, the Niners suck. Rams 31, Niners 16
Who’s the worst team in the NFL, the Niners or the Dolphins? I’ll take the Niners in that competition but that’s about all I’ll be taking them for this season. I like St. Louis big: Rams 37 San Fran 13.
Indy (-3.5) over BALTIMORE
League's best offense versus league's best defense? Maybe. But what about the Ravens offense? Can Kyle Boller improve, and make key passes? Will Jamal Lewis bounce back from his jail sentence and be effective? I read somewhere (I think it was on ESPN) where some corrections officer wrote in and said that even his short prison term would have a big effect on his physical condition. They're fed generally crap food, and short-term inmates like Lewis don't get access to weights because of liability costs. So although it's trendy to say he bounces back with a vengeance, physically, he just might not be up for it. Colts 27, Ravens 23.
Indianapolis has been drafting defense for what, five years now? Eventually this has to click and I think this season it finally does. I also think Peyton Manning comes back to earth, though I have no worldly reason why. The Colts could be scary good, but I think this one is lower scoring that every one thinks it’s going to be. Colts 20 Ravens 13
Philly (-2.5) over ATLANTA
I said it in my QB analysis thingy, and I'll say it again - I think Michael Vick is overrated. Until he wins an important close game with his arm, I will continue to believe he can not lead a team to the Super Bowl. I suppose this would qualify as an important game, since it is on a Monday night against the defending NFC Champions. So, what do you say, Michael? Put away the tap-dancing shoes for a moment, and let's see you use that arm to win a game. I don't see it happening against this defense. Eagles 23, Falcons 16.
Vick and his filthy clap infested penis make me sick. I’m sick of Michael and sick of Marcus and sick of all the hype that surrounds them. In reality they are 2 gifted athletes who have questionable values and haven’t proven squat on the football field. In fact the only thing that disgusts me more than the Vicks is Philadelphia. That whole town is a friggin cesspool. Anyway, enough social commentary. Philly wins 24 – 20.
Thursday, September 8, 2005
Happy Birthday to a New England Patriot
September 8th is the birthday of Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain. Born in 1828 in Brewer Maine, Chamberlain is most famous for leading the 20th Maine into battle during the Civil War. His claim to fame was the defense of Little Round Top on the second day of the battle of Gettysburg which arguably secured the Union victory. Over the course of the war he was wounded 5 times in battle and had 6 horses shot out from under him. With this incredible battle resume in tote, Chamberlain was promoted to Brigadier General by war’s end. At Appomattox Chamberlain ordered his men to salute the Confederate soldiers as thy marched past in surrender. This decision, though vilified by some in the North did much to begin the healing process between North and South. He turns 177 today.
And now back to sports.
In case you haven’t heard, Sunday is the official opening of the NFL season for most teams. New England plays Oakland tonight, which gives me the opportunity to remind Anonymous that the Patriots are on tonight, so don’t miss it. There. My civic duty is done. With that completed let’s get to Samichlaus’s Packer Keys to the Game.
Wait, that sounds kind of hackneyed.
Samichlaus’s Shiznit on the Pizzles? Well at least it’s fresh.
The Shiznit: The Packers open at Detroit on Sunday at 4:15 Eastern time. Detroit, with their high powered offense is favored by three.
Key-izzles to victory for the Pizzles
Key-izzle 1: Stop the run. Detroit has an amazingly talented running back in Kevin Jones. He’s fast and big and has amazing cutback ability. This is going to be a problem for the Packers defense, which has shown little ability to manage cut backs during the preseason. The return of Grady Jackson to the line will help, but the onus of stopping the run will fall on the linebackers. Oh, did I mention that our top outside linebacker N’ial Diggs is hurt? Stopping the run puts the ball in the hands of weak armed Joey Harrington, but with Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Rookie sensation Mike Williams at wide receiver I’m not so sure this is a good idea either.
Key-izzle 2: Special teams must play perfect. Detroit has the hands down best kick/punt returner in the game in Eddie Drummond. Mark my words, he WILL return at least one kickoff or punt return for a TD. The Packers special teams have be short bus special in the preseason. Let’s hope that Drummond only scores once. Kids, this one could get ugly.
Key-izzle 3: Turnovers. Ahman Green has been averaging a fumble per preseason game. Mind you, that’s been in limited action. Davenport’s been a bit better. Favre has been making good decisions, but if the Pack falls behind watch out. The team who commits the fewest turnovers wins, and this doesn’t look good for the Packers.
Key-izzle 4: Reverse the curse. Detroit plays indoors, and every one knows Favre’s Achilles heel has been playing in domes, right? For what it’s worth Favre has gone 4 -3 in his last 7 dome games posting a 99.8 QB rating. Not bad. His last game in Detroit: 25-38-257. 2 TD’s 0 Ints. Rating 102.6 OK, let’s say keep the curse reversed.
Key-izzle 5: Play “Fundamental Defense”. Last season saw week in and week out huge plays against a defense that (a) didn’t know what it was supposed to do (b) didn’t have any confidence in its game plan and (c) didn’t know how to tackle. This is basics, kids. Jim Bates promised that at bare minimum these fundamentals would be instilled. I’ve seen glimpses of it during the preseason, but I’ve yet to see it put together for any stretch of time. Well the time has come.
Hip-hop bling bling rappin’ wrap up from the hizzle in R-town
I’ve been predicting the Packers to win this game fairly easily, but now I’m not so sure. The offense will carry them because they have to.
Pizzles 34 Motown 28
And now back to sports.
In case you haven’t heard, Sunday is the official opening of the NFL season for most teams. New England plays Oakland tonight, which gives me the opportunity to remind Anonymous that the Patriots are on tonight, so don’t miss it. There. My civic duty is done. With that completed let’s get to Samichlaus’s Packer Keys to the Game.
Wait, that sounds kind of hackneyed.
Samichlaus’s Shiznit on the Pizzles? Well at least it’s fresh.
The Shiznit: The Packers open at Detroit on Sunday at 4:15 Eastern time. Detroit, with their high powered offense is favored by three.
Key-izzles to victory for the Pizzles
Key-izzle 1: Stop the run. Detroit has an amazingly talented running back in Kevin Jones. He’s fast and big and has amazing cutback ability. This is going to be a problem for the Packers defense, which has shown little ability to manage cut backs during the preseason. The return of Grady Jackson to the line will help, but the onus of stopping the run will fall on the linebackers. Oh, did I mention that our top outside linebacker N’ial Diggs is hurt? Stopping the run puts the ball in the hands of weak armed Joey Harrington, but with Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Rookie sensation Mike Williams at wide receiver I’m not so sure this is a good idea either.
Key-izzle 2: Special teams must play perfect. Detroit has the hands down best kick/punt returner in the game in Eddie Drummond. Mark my words, he WILL return at least one kickoff or punt return for a TD. The Packers special teams have be short bus special in the preseason. Let’s hope that Drummond only scores once. Kids, this one could get ugly.
Key-izzle 3: Turnovers. Ahman Green has been averaging a fumble per preseason game. Mind you, that’s been in limited action. Davenport’s been a bit better. Favre has been making good decisions, but if the Pack falls behind watch out. The team who commits the fewest turnovers wins, and this doesn’t look good for the Packers.
Key-izzle 4: Reverse the curse. Detroit plays indoors, and every one knows Favre’s Achilles heel has been playing in domes, right? For what it’s worth Favre has gone 4 -3 in his last 7 dome games posting a 99.8 QB rating. Not bad. His last game in Detroit: 25-38-257. 2 TD’s 0 Ints. Rating 102.6 OK, let’s say keep the curse reversed.
Key-izzle 5: Play “Fundamental Defense”. Last season saw week in and week out huge plays against a defense that (a) didn’t know what it was supposed to do (b) didn’t have any confidence in its game plan and (c) didn’t know how to tackle. This is basics, kids. Jim Bates promised that at bare minimum these fundamentals would be instilled. I’ve seen glimpses of it during the preseason, but I’ve yet to see it put together for any stretch of time. Well the time has come.
Hip-hop bling bling rappin’ wrap up from the hizzle in R-town
I’ve been predicting the Packers to win this game fairly easily, but now I’m not so sure. The offense will carry them because they have to.
Pizzles 34 Motown 28
Wednesday, September 7, 2005
Young QB Analysis - NFC
And now, the NFC QBs.
Recap of the system -. I'm going to list each QB, what year this will be for him, rate the amount of pressure/expectations he's under on a scale of 1-5 (1 being not much pressure, 5 being ready to get the hook after a bad performance), and then rate his chance of success for the season, and his career, also on a scale of 1-5 (1 being out of the league within a few years, 5 being Hall of Fame material). Oh, what the hell, I'll also list each QBs backup, so you have an idea of where part of the pressure rating came from:
Good Potential:
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Experience: 2nd year
Backup: Tim Hasselbeck
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
I think most people realize the Giants are still a few years away from playoff material. Still, Manning is expected to win some games now, and he won't be benched. They do have Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey for him to throw to, and Tiki Barber has been solid out of the backfield. Eli should put up decent numbers, but still throw quite a few interceptions as he continues to learn. And I'm not so sure the Giants offensive line is good enough to keep him well protected.
Career Success: 4
Probably the highest upside of anybody on this list. But I'm not ready to anoint him Hall of Fame material just yet. I think his biggest obstacle is handling the pressure in NY. Something his father and brother didn't have to do while they were developing. I'm sorry, but New Orleans and Indianapolis are not NYC.
Solid Starters:
Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears
Experience: rookie
Backup: NA
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 3
Career Success: 3
A rookie QB who is getting the starting nod in Chicago due to yet another season-ending leg injury to Rex Grossman. Hard to evaluate a pure rookie, but this guy showed flashes of brilliance playing for Purdue. He has a decent combination of arm and mobility to probably have a decent career. Not a lot of pressure on him, since the Bears were pretty much expected to suck with or without Grossman. Now everybody expects them to suck even more.
Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Matt Schaub
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
Career Success: 3
Is Michael Vick the most exciting player in football to watch? Probably. Is he even a top 10 QB? Probably not. I think there are 3 things holding him back, and they will continue for the near future: 1) Atlanta is still primarily a running offense. 2) Atlanta's defense is good enough to allow the offense to be a running offense, controlling the ball and killing the clock. And 3) Vick's natural running and elusiveness gives him a mindset of "scramble first, throw second" which has totally prevented his passing game from developing the way it should. Any way you cut it, he is NOT an effective passer. Sure, you'll see plenty of ridiculous highlights of him running around in the pocket for 10 seconds, dodging would-be sacks, then heaving up a 40-yard bomb to a wide open receiver. What you won't see are the dozens of passes he throws behind receivers, over receivers. What you won't see is the time he scrambles 2 seconds too long, gets blind-sided, and fumbles the football. To put it simply, Vick's reputation is bigger than his actual talent as an NFL QB.
Busts:
Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears
Experience: 3rd year
Backup: Kyle Orton
Pressure: 1
Season Success: 1
Career Success: 2
Well, no pressure really this year if you're out for the second season in a row with a leg injury. And both these hits haven't been the kind of hits that when you see the replay you think to yourself, "Ouch, that's gonna be serious." Nope, they looked fairly routine, the kind of hits to the legs RBs take a dozen times every game. So, that leads me to believe he's going to keep getting hurt, and find himself out of a starting job sooner than later. Plus, he's out of Florida, which automatically makes him overrated.
Tim Rattay, San Francisco 49ers
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Alex Smith
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 2
Rattay has been given the starting job in San Fran simply because Alex Smith did not look ready. And while Rattay might have a few decent games in him, I don't think he's quite the sort of guy who will be starting anywhere in the next few years. He might make a solid career backup, but not much more than that. He'll probably start all season this year though, regardless of how the Niners fare. They won't win any more games with Smith in, and if they just wanted Smith to get the experience, why not throw him to the wolves in week 1?
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Experience: rookie
Backup: NA
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 2
And, speaking of the Niners. Alex Smith was taken with the #1 overall pick. And the Niners were ready to make them their starter immediately. Sadly, he was woefully unprepared for that role, and he'll likely watch from the sidelines all season, unless Rattay gets hurt. Or maybe towards the end of the year when the Niners are on pace for the worst overall record. And the #1 pick. Now there is an interesting scenario, and one that several writers (to their credit) did in fact point out this past draft. What if the Niners finish dead last again, and land the #1 pick? USC QB Matt Leinart could very well win his second consecutive Heisman, and will likely be a unanimous #1 overall pick. So, do the Niners take two QBs in two consecutive years with two #1 overall picks? If they trade the pick or Smith, will they get even near to value, considering the corner they painted themselves into? What they should have done is taken Michigan WR Braylon Edwards this year and Leinart next year. That would have been a deadly combo for a decade. Anyways, back to Smith. Says here the Niners DO finish worst overall and DO draft Leinart, trading Smith for half price, and then Smith being so emotionally scarred he never puts it together.
Total Busts:
Patrick Ramsey, Washington Redskins
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Mark Brunell/Jason Campbell
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 1
Poor Ramsey has gotten such mixed feelings from his coaches over his first 3 years. He's gone from 3rd string, to starter, to backup, to 3rd string, and backup again. Like some awful confidence jarring roller coaster. And I think his confidence is beyond repair now, especially since Washington drafted Auburn QB Jason Campbell. The Skins are a playoff team if they get a decent showing from their QB. Which they haven't gotten in years. Dare I say since the days of Doug Williams and Jay Schroeder? Look for Ramsey to be benched or "injured" by week 8, and Campbell to come in and possibly make a playoff push. Ramsey is unlikely to land a starting job elsewhere.
Joey Harrington, Detroit Lions
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Jeff Garcia/Dan Orlovsky
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 1
It's do or die time for Joey Harrington! He has 3, count them THREE, first round WRs taken the past 3 years. He has a quality young RB in Kevin Jones. He doesn’t have a great defense, but that's no excuse any more, he should be able to put up points with the best of them. And their defense can't be any worse than the Packers, right? *ducks* The Lions brought in Garcia in the offseason, and there was some speculation that he would be allowed for the starting position. Those rumors was squashed, and Harrington was given the vote of confidence declaring he was still the starter. Still, he had to feel ol' Twinkle Toes breathing down his neck. Sadly, Garcia broke his leg and is out for several weeks. So that knocks the pressure down from a 5, but only to a 4. If he sucks, he could still be pulled. Never heard of Dan Orlovsky? Well, he's a rookie out of Uconn, not exactly a college football powerhouse, but he's fairly highly regarded. Patience with Harrington is wearing thin with the fans, management, and coaches. And if he doesn't perform, he's done. Says here he folds under the pressure, and is riding pine by week 10.
Recap of the system -. I'm going to list each QB, what year this will be for him, rate the amount of pressure/expectations he's under on a scale of 1-5 (1 being not much pressure, 5 being ready to get the hook after a bad performance), and then rate his chance of success for the season, and his career, also on a scale of 1-5 (1 being out of the league within a few years, 5 being Hall of Fame material). Oh, what the hell, I'll also list each QBs backup, so you have an idea of where part of the pressure rating came from:
Good Potential:
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Experience: 2nd year
Backup: Tim Hasselbeck
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
I think most people realize the Giants are still a few years away from playoff material. Still, Manning is expected to win some games now, and he won't be benched. They do have Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey for him to throw to, and Tiki Barber has been solid out of the backfield. Eli should put up decent numbers, but still throw quite a few interceptions as he continues to learn. And I'm not so sure the Giants offensive line is good enough to keep him well protected.
Career Success: 4
Probably the highest upside of anybody on this list. But I'm not ready to anoint him Hall of Fame material just yet. I think his biggest obstacle is handling the pressure in NY. Something his father and brother didn't have to do while they were developing. I'm sorry, but New Orleans and Indianapolis are not NYC.
Solid Starters:
Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears
Experience: rookie
Backup: NA
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 3
Career Success: 3
A rookie QB who is getting the starting nod in Chicago due to yet another season-ending leg injury to Rex Grossman. Hard to evaluate a pure rookie, but this guy showed flashes of brilliance playing for Purdue. He has a decent combination of arm and mobility to probably have a decent career. Not a lot of pressure on him, since the Bears were pretty much expected to suck with or without Grossman. Now everybody expects them to suck even more.
Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Matt Schaub
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
Career Success: 3
Is Michael Vick the most exciting player in football to watch? Probably. Is he even a top 10 QB? Probably not. I think there are 3 things holding him back, and they will continue for the near future: 1) Atlanta is still primarily a running offense. 2) Atlanta's defense is good enough to allow the offense to be a running offense, controlling the ball and killing the clock. And 3) Vick's natural running and elusiveness gives him a mindset of "scramble first, throw second" which has totally prevented his passing game from developing the way it should. Any way you cut it, he is NOT an effective passer. Sure, you'll see plenty of ridiculous highlights of him running around in the pocket for 10 seconds, dodging would-be sacks, then heaving up a 40-yard bomb to a wide open receiver. What you won't see are the dozens of passes he throws behind receivers, over receivers. What you won't see is the time he scrambles 2 seconds too long, gets blind-sided, and fumbles the football. To put it simply, Vick's reputation is bigger than his actual talent as an NFL QB.
Busts:
Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears
Experience: 3rd year
Backup: Kyle Orton
Pressure: 1
Season Success: 1
Career Success: 2
Well, no pressure really this year if you're out for the second season in a row with a leg injury. And both these hits haven't been the kind of hits that when you see the replay you think to yourself, "Ouch, that's gonna be serious." Nope, they looked fairly routine, the kind of hits to the legs RBs take a dozen times every game. So, that leads me to believe he's going to keep getting hurt, and find himself out of a starting job sooner than later. Plus, he's out of Florida, which automatically makes him overrated.
Tim Rattay, San Francisco 49ers
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Alex Smith
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 2
Rattay has been given the starting job in San Fran simply because Alex Smith did not look ready. And while Rattay might have a few decent games in him, I don't think he's quite the sort of guy who will be starting anywhere in the next few years. He might make a solid career backup, but not much more than that. He'll probably start all season this year though, regardless of how the Niners fare. They won't win any more games with Smith in, and if they just wanted Smith to get the experience, why not throw him to the wolves in week 1?
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Experience: rookie
Backup: NA
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 2
And, speaking of the Niners. Alex Smith was taken with the #1 overall pick. And the Niners were ready to make them their starter immediately. Sadly, he was woefully unprepared for that role, and he'll likely watch from the sidelines all season, unless Rattay gets hurt. Or maybe towards the end of the year when the Niners are on pace for the worst overall record. And the #1 pick. Now there is an interesting scenario, and one that several writers (to their credit) did in fact point out this past draft. What if the Niners finish dead last again, and land the #1 pick? USC QB Matt Leinart could very well win his second consecutive Heisman, and will likely be a unanimous #1 overall pick. So, do the Niners take two QBs in two consecutive years with two #1 overall picks? If they trade the pick or Smith, will they get even near to value, considering the corner they painted themselves into? What they should have done is taken Michigan WR Braylon Edwards this year and Leinart next year. That would have been a deadly combo for a decade. Anyways, back to Smith. Says here the Niners DO finish worst overall and DO draft Leinart, trading Smith for half price, and then Smith being so emotionally scarred he never puts it together.
Total Busts:
Patrick Ramsey, Washington Redskins
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Mark Brunell/Jason Campbell
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 1
Poor Ramsey has gotten such mixed feelings from his coaches over his first 3 years. He's gone from 3rd string, to starter, to backup, to 3rd string, and backup again. Like some awful confidence jarring roller coaster. And I think his confidence is beyond repair now, especially since Washington drafted Auburn QB Jason Campbell. The Skins are a playoff team if they get a decent showing from their QB. Which they haven't gotten in years. Dare I say since the days of Doug Williams and Jay Schroeder? Look for Ramsey to be benched or "injured" by week 8, and Campbell to come in and possibly make a playoff push. Ramsey is unlikely to land a starting job elsewhere.
Joey Harrington, Detroit Lions
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Jeff Garcia/Dan Orlovsky
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 1
It's do or die time for Joey Harrington! He has 3, count them THREE, first round WRs taken the past 3 years. He has a quality young RB in Kevin Jones. He doesn’t have a great defense, but that's no excuse any more, he should be able to put up points with the best of them. And their defense can't be any worse than the Packers, right? *ducks* The Lions brought in Garcia in the offseason, and there was some speculation that he would be allowed for the starting position. Those rumors was squashed, and Harrington was given the vote of confidence declaring he was still the starter. Still, he had to feel ol' Twinkle Toes breathing down his neck. Sadly, Garcia broke his leg and is out for several weeks. So that knocks the pressure down from a 5, but only to a 4. If he sucks, he could still be pulled. Never heard of Dan Orlovsky? Well, he's a rookie out of Uconn, not exactly a college football powerhouse, but he's fairly highly regarded. Patience with Harrington is wearing thin with the fans, management, and coaches. And if he doesn't perform, he's done. Says here he folds under the pressure, and is riding pine by week 10.
Tuesday, September 6, 2005
On the first "Any Given Sunday"
This country is really fucked. There is so much of an unfathomable shitstorm going on that ol’ Samichlaus has wanted to put his keyboard aside, crawl up into a little ball and quietly wait for 4:15 PM Sunday, September 11th when my beloved Packers open the season against the Detroit Lions. Imagine that. A mere four years after the original national calamity, and in the midst of this years national calamity and I can’t wait for the sacred day.
You know, it’s about time.
Someday September 11th will be just another day, well, another day with an asterisk. Much like the bevy of other milestone days that have passed into the fabric of history, like December 7th and April 14th and correct me if I’m wrong, August 15th, September 11th will one day be anticipated as “next Tuesday”. This year September 11th is opening football Sunday, and also September 11th. That's a start.
The Packers open against the Lions in Detroit, which is an astonishing stroke of good fortune because the Lions usually suck. This year they feature weak armed QB Joey Harrington are somehow expected to be an offensive juggernaut. Their backup Quarterback Jeff Garcia has a broken leg to go along with his limp wrist. Not that there's anything wrong with that, or that Harrington is in any danger what with the Packers "pass rush". They have a few good receivers in Charles Rogers (who should be getting his yearly season ending injury any day now) and Roy Williams. Also, their running back Kevin Jones from Virginia Tech is pretty good too. Another featured performer is special teams demon Eddie Drummond who returned two punts and two kickoffs for touchdowns last season. Hmm, maybe this isn’t such an astonishing stroke of good luck. Detroit’s got some chops.
Meanwhile the Packers haven’t shown much D in the preseason and I keep praying that they’ve simply been playing possum. Yeah, right.
I have to say I was somewhere between thrilled and ecstatic when I heard the Packers released Cletdius Hunt. The guy was a 300 lb waste, though I would never tell him that to his face. He was lazy and insubordinate, and to make matters worse he was a stoner. I was talking to my inside source in Milwaukee about two weeks ago and we were lamenting Hunt. The common pang about this loser was “I don’t care if we have a less talented player. Let’s play someone who wants to play”. Good riddance.
One final thought: I am so fired up for the season. Every year around this time I make a promise to my wife that this year I won’t scream at the TV, and this year I won’t get upset, and this year we’re going to have fun. Every year, about 10 minutes into game one, all promises are usually in shambles.
This year is different.
The aforementioned shitstorm in the Gulf Coast has put a lot of things in perspective for me, but in regards to my Sunday afternoons for the next 18 weeks it’s taught me that it’s really just OK if the cornerbacks can’t tackle. I am grateful for the strange reality of sports, the escape that it affords me, and the child-like thrill I feel when my team wins. And when I look at a small house that dare I say only has one bathroom I thank God almighty that I’ve got a place to pee.
You know, it’s about time.
Someday September 11th will be just another day, well, another day with an asterisk. Much like the bevy of other milestone days that have passed into the fabric of history, like December 7th and April 14th and correct me if I’m wrong, August 15th, September 11th will one day be anticipated as “next Tuesday”. This year September 11th is opening football Sunday, and also September 11th. That's a start.
The Packers open against the Lions in Detroit, which is an astonishing stroke of good fortune because the Lions usually suck. This year they feature weak armed QB Joey Harrington are somehow expected to be an offensive juggernaut. Their backup Quarterback Jeff Garcia has a broken leg to go along with his limp wrist. Not that there's anything wrong with that, or that Harrington is in any danger what with the Packers "pass rush". They have a few good receivers in Charles Rogers (who should be getting his yearly season ending injury any day now) and Roy Williams. Also, their running back Kevin Jones from Virginia Tech is pretty good too. Another featured performer is special teams demon Eddie Drummond who returned two punts and two kickoffs for touchdowns last season. Hmm, maybe this isn’t such an astonishing stroke of good luck. Detroit’s got some chops.
Meanwhile the Packers haven’t shown much D in the preseason and I keep praying that they’ve simply been playing possum. Yeah, right.
I have to say I was somewhere between thrilled and ecstatic when I heard the Packers released Cletdius Hunt. The guy was a 300 lb waste, though I would never tell him that to his face. He was lazy and insubordinate, and to make matters worse he was a stoner. I was talking to my inside source in Milwaukee about two weeks ago and we were lamenting Hunt. The common pang about this loser was “I don’t care if we have a less talented player. Let’s play someone who wants to play”. Good riddance.
One final thought: I am so fired up for the season. Every year around this time I make a promise to my wife that this year I won’t scream at the TV, and this year I won’t get upset, and this year we’re going to have fun. Every year, about 10 minutes into game one, all promises are usually in shambles.
This year is different.
The aforementioned shitstorm in the Gulf Coast has put a lot of things in perspective for me, but in regards to my Sunday afternoons for the next 18 weeks it’s taught me that it’s really just OK if the cornerbacks can’t tackle. I am grateful for the strange reality of sports, the escape that it affords me, and the child-like thrill I feel when my team wins. And when I look at a small house that dare I say only has one bathroom I thank God almighty that I’ve got a place to pee.
What The Other "Experts" Say
I'm mostly posting this here so we can look back at it at the end of the season, and compare what we predicted against what the "professional" experts predict. My theory is that they all suck, and won't be any closer than us to hitting on the final standings...
So here are some teams and numbers from 18 "experts" - 12 from ESPN.com, SI's Dr. Z and Peter King, 3 more guys from SI, and NFL.com's TMQ (although TMQ did not pick conference champs or Super Bowl champ, other than guessing one of the participants in the Super Bowl would be a team that didn't appear on MNF during the season).
AFC Champion:
Colts - 9 votes
Patriots - 7 votes
Steelers - 1 vote
NFC Champion:
Vikings - 5 votes
Panthers - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Falcons - 3 votes
Rams - 1 vote
Redskins - 1 vote
Super Bowl XL Champion:
Colts - 5 votes
Patriots - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Panthers - 2 votes
Steelers - 1 vote
Falcons - 1 vote
Rams - 1 vote
Now to check in on the good ol' Seahawks and Packers, the teams that get the most attention right here...
Of the 15 "experts"... Only 4 picked Seattle to win the NFC West, and 1 picked them to make the playoffs as a Wild Card.
For the Packers, only 1 picked them to win the NFC North, and only 1 picked them to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. In fact, 16 of the others picked the Vikings to win the division. The only person who did not pick the Vikings picked the Lions, and he's obviously smoking some strong hashish.
Generally, people analyzing Seattle pointed to poor defense and dropped balls as being their main weaknesses. Do these people even pay attention to the off season? Seattle will have 7 new starters on defense, including a couple veterans who have had very impressive pre-seasons (Jamie Sharper, Andre Dyson, Chuck Darby, Kelly Herndon) and some exciting young blood (Marcus Tubbs, Lofa Tatupu, D.D. Lewis). And the main WR spreading the dropsies disease, Koren Robinson, is gone, replaced by sure-handed Joe Jureviscious. And yes, I probably massacred that spelling.
So let's revisit this thread in January, and see how these clowns did.
So here are some teams and numbers from 18 "experts" - 12 from ESPN.com, SI's Dr. Z and Peter King, 3 more guys from SI, and NFL.com's TMQ (although TMQ did not pick conference champs or Super Bowl champ, other than guessing one of the participants in the Super Bowl would be a team that didn't appear on MNF during the season).
AFC Champion:
Colts - 9 votes
Patriots - 7 votes
Steelers - 1 vote
NFC Champion:
Vikings - 5 votes
Panthers - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Falcons - 3 votes
Rams - 1 vote
Redskins - 1 vote
Super Bowl XL Champion:
Colts - 5 votes
Patriots - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Panthers - 2 votes
Steelers - 1 vote
Falcons - 1 vote
Rams - 1 vote
Now to check in on the good ol' Seahawks and Packers, the teams that get the most attention right here...
Of the 15 "experts"... Only 4 picked Seattle to win the NFC West, and 1 picked them to make the playoffs as a Wild Card.
For the Packers, only 1 picked them to win the NFC North, and only 1 picked them to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. In fact, 16 of the others picked the Vikings to win the division. The only person who did not pick the Vikings picked the Lions, and he's obviously smoking some strong hashish.
Generally, people analyzing Seattle pointed to poor defense and dropped balls as being their main weaknesses. Do these people even pay attention to the off season? Seattle will have 7 new starters on defense, including a couple veterans who have had very impressive pre-seasons (Jamie Sharper, Andre Dyson, Chuck Darby, Kelly Herndon) and some exciting young blood (Marcus Tubbs, Lofa Tatupu, D.D. Lewis). And the main WR spreading the dropsies disease, Koren Robinson, is gone, replaced by sure-handed Joe Jureviscious. And yes, I probably massacred that spelling.
So let's revisit this thread in January, and see how these clowns did.
St. Ides NFC Preview
Expect a busy week here, with the NFL regular season starting on Thursday!
Here's what you can expect this week:
Today: NFC Preview
Tomorrow: NFC Young QB Analysis
Thursday: Week 1 Picks!
If that doesn't keep you from being productive at work this week, I don't know what will…
One quick tidbit borrowed from Peter King, for Samichlaus:
Brett Favre needs a 266-yard passing day Sunday against his old quarterback coach, Steve Mariucci, in Detroit to become the third NFL player to throw for 50,000 yards.
East:
1.) Philly - Despite the TO distraction and his feud with McNabb, this is still the team to beat. Their defense remains largely intact. However, if McNabb or Owens gets hurt, all bets are off. The thing that is still scary is their lack of a consistent running game. 12-4.
2.) Giants - Eli, year two. I think he progresses. I think the Giants D will be solid as usual. And I think Tiki Barber will continue to be quietly very effective. I also think coach Tom Coughlin will begin to really grate on the nerves of the players, and cost them a game or two. 8-8.
3.) Dallas - I'm sick of hearing about Julius Jones, Demarcus Ware, Drew Bledsoe, and Bill Parcells. I don't like Parcells, I never have. And I think he's overrated. How many years has he been in Dallas now, like 3 or 4? And his team is as big a question mark as ever. Some writers are saying Bledsoe plays well for Parcells, and blah blah blah, but I don't buy it. The good thing is we should get a few entertaining press conferences from a frustrated Tuna. 7-9.
4.) Redskins - Really, I think the non-Philly based teams in this division could finish in any order, between 9-7 and 7-9. Skins included. Gibbs claims that he'll use Clinton Portis better (as an outside runner rather than a power back). The Redskins D should still be pretty damn good. But until Patrick Ramsey proves he belongs as an NFL starter and gets their passing game going, their offense will struggle. 7-9.
North:
1.) Vikings - Interesting team to watch this season. Moss is gone. Several quality receivers try to fill his spot. Including the latest rumor that ex-Seahawk and current alcoholic Koren Dropinson will sign with them this week. I think their offense will be okay, and their defense added enough new parts to be improved. That ought to be enough talent to win the division, despite Mike Tice costing them 1 or 2 close games. 11-5.
2.) Packers - It's all about the D. Well, and the offensive line. For Favre's sake (and I do like the guy, despite the media kissing his ass on a daily basis), I hope the line gives him time to throw, and he can go out on a good note. If this is his last season. Which who knows if it will be or not. But will the defense be able to stop anybody? I'll let my colleague answer that one. ;) For now, I'm guessing 9-7 and squeaking into the wild card.
3.) Bears - The Rex Grossman injury hurt them. If Kyle Orton can settle in at QB, he has the ability to win a few games. Cedric Benson's long holdout will keep him off the field for a few weeks I'm guessing. Still, their defense should be good enough to win a few games and keep them out of the division basement. 7-9.
4.) Lions - Will the real Joey Harrington please step up? I'll save my further analysis for the QB breakdown tomorrow, but I don't see the Lions offense exactly lighting it up, nor their defense shutting teams down. 6-10.
South:
1.) Carolina - They almost made the playoffs last year despite their #1 WR and top 3 RBs being injured for most of the year. They really should have made the playoffs, and might have even won a game. In any case, I think their defense continues to be one of the best, and their offense is good enough to win a bunch of games. 11-5
2.) Atlanta - I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it. The Atlanta defense is still pretty good, and they'll probably contend for a playoff spot. But I just see Vick choking away one two many wins this year. Whether it be him running around in the backfield and getting blind-sided to fumble, or heaving up a 60-yard throw that gets picked off, turnovers and bad decisions will kill him this year. 8-8.
3.) New Orleans - Let's talk about the team first: inconsistent, underachieving, with a coach of questionable skill who has been rumored to being close to fired dozens of times. Take that, and combine it with the horrible hurricane disaster in that region and the uncertainty of where they'll play their home games and you don't exactly have the recipe for a team that's going to make the playoffs. 8-8.
4.) Tampa Bay - I think their defense will still be decent, and Cadillac Williams gives them an exciting new running game to watch. But I don't see Brian Griese (despite being an ex-Wolverine) as the type of QB who is a difference maker. 6-10.
West:
1.) Seattle - Same top 10 offense. New improved defense. Low expectations. I like our chances. The schedule does look a bit rough this season, but if you look at the combined records from last year of their opponents, it's something like the 5th easiest schedule. Of course, having the likes of San Fran and Arizona on that schedule twice kind of tips the scales a bit. Still, Seattle should go at least 5-1 in divisional games. They need to learn to beat the goddamned Rams. 5-1 against the division, 5-5 against the rest of the league. Sounds about right. 10-6.
2.) St. Louis - I guess until Seattle starts beating the Rams on a regular basis, people will still like the Rams to win the division. Still, this team has Mike Martz as their coach. He's awful. And Marc Bulger throws way too many interceptions. Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk are a year older. And though Torry Holt is still dope and Stephen Jackson is supposed to step in for Faulk adequately, their defense still stinks. 9-7
3.) Arizona - The trendy pick for a team on the rise. Someone somewhere even called them "this year's Chargers". I see one big difference - last year's Chargers had a young QB still maturing step up and play well for them. This year's Cardinals has an aging QB who has gotten worse and worse each year. Warner is one concussion away from retirement, and that big hit might come in the first few weeks with their weak offensive line. Also, rookie J.J. Arrington who was supposed to be their savior at RB has been unimpressive in camp and pre-season. 8-8
4.) San Fran - 1st overall pick Alex Smith looked so bad in his first two preseason games that he has been benched for Tim Rattay. Their defense has a few recognizable names, but also some CBs that get toasted regularly. RB Kevan Barlow has been disappointing since given the full-time workload. If they finish worst overall, how can they pass on USC QB Matt Leinart with the first overall pick? Has any team ever taken a QB with the #1 overall pick two years in a row? I think I said it then, but I'll say it again. They should have taken Michigan WR Braylon Edwards this year, and aimed for Leinart next year. (PS - Edwards has looked awesome for the Browns this preseason.) 3-13.
Playoffs:
Wild Card Round:
Panthers 26, Rams 23
Seahawks 34, Packers 31
Divisional Round:
Eagles 27, Panthers 23
Seahawks 24, Vikings 23
NFC Championship:
Seahawks 19, Eagles 17
Super Bowl:
Seahawks 56, Patriots 0
Okay, well, maybe I'm stretching it a bit there. But that WAS the final score of Super Bowl XL in Madden 06, which I finished over the weekend. I knocked off the Bucs and Panthers in the playoffs, in close games, but dismantled the Patriots, who could not get a running game going, and Brady threw 3 picks.
Do I really think Seattle can reach the Super Bowl? Yes, I do. I have more faith this year than last year. Last year they were the "trendy" pick, which was the kiss of death. This year, most people are picking them to finish 2nd or 3rd in their division, even though their offense is exactly the same, and their defense should be better.
Here's what you can expect this week:
Today: NFC Preview
Tomorrow: NFC Young QB Analysis
Thursday: Week 1 Picks!
If that doesn't keep you from being productive at work this week, I don't know what will…
One quick tidbit borrowed from Peter King, for Samichlaus:
Brett Favre needs a 266-yard passing day Sunday against his old quarterback coach, Steve Mariucci, in Detroit to become the third NFL player to throw for 50,000 yards.
East:
1.) Philly - Despite the TO distraction and his feud with McNabb, this is still the team to beat. Their defense remains largely intact. However, if McNabb or Owens gets hurt, all bets are off. The thing that is still scary is their lack of a consistent running game. 12-4.
2.) Giants - Eli, year two. I think he progresses. I think the Giants D will be solid as usual. And I think Tiki Barber will continue to be quietly very effective. I also think coach Tom Coughlin will begin to really grate on the nerves of the players, and cost them a game or two. 8-8.
3.) Dallas - I'm sick of hearing about Julius Jones, Demarcus Ware, Drew Bledsoe, and Bill Parcells. I don't like Parcells, I never have. And I think he's overrated. How many years has he been in Dallas now, like 3 or 4? And his team is as big a question mark as ever. Some writers are saying Bledsoe plays well for Parcells, and blah blah blah, but I don't buy it. The good thing is we should get a few entertaining press conferences from a frustrated Tuna. 7-9.
4.) Redskins - Really, I think the non-Philly based teams in this division could finish in any order, between 9-7 and 7-9. Skins included. Gibbs claims that he'll use Clinton Portis better (as an outside runner rather than a power back). The Redskins D should still be pretty damn good. But until Patrick Ramsey proves he belongs as an NFL starter and gets their passing game going, their offense will struggle. 7-9.
North:
1.) Vikings - Interesting team to watch this season. Moss is gone. Several quality receivers try to fill his spot. Including the latest rumor that ex-Seahawk and current alcoholic Koren Dropinson will sign with them this week. I think their offense will be okay, and their defense added enough new parts to be improved. That ought to be enough talent to win the division, despite Mike Tice costing them 1 or 2 close games. 11-5.
2.) Packers - It's all about the D. Well, and the offensive line. For Favre's sake (and I do like the guy, despite the media kissing his ass on a daily basis), I hope the line gives him time to throw, and he can go out on a good note. If this is his last season. Which who knows if it will be or not. But will the defense be able to stop anybody? I'll let my colleague answer that one. ;) For now, I'm guessing 9-7 and squeaking into the wild card.
3.) Bears - The Rex Grossman injury hurt them. If Kyle Orton can settle in at QB, he has the ability to win a few games. Cedric Benson's long holdout will keep him off the field for a few weeks I'm guessing. Still, their defense should be good enough to win a few games and keep them out of the division basement. 7-9.
4.) Lions - Will the real Joey Harrington please step up? I'll save my further analysis for the QB breakdown tomorrow, but I don't see the Lions offense exactly lighting it up, nor their defense shutting teams down. 6-10.
South:
1.) Carolina - They almost made the playoffs last year despite their #1 WR and top 3 RBs being injured for most of the year. They really should have made the playoffs, and might have even won a game. In any case, I think their defense continues to be one of the best, and their offense is good enough to win a bunch of games. 11-5
2.) Atlanta - I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it. The Atlanta defense is still pretty good, and they'll probably contend for a playoff spot. But I just see Vick choking away one two many wins this year. Whether it be him running around in the backfield and getting blind-sided to fumble, or heaving up a 60-yard throw that gets picked off, turnovers and bad decisions will kill him this year. 8-8.
3.) New Orleans - Let's talk about the team first: inconsistent, underachieving, with a coach of questionable skill who has been rumored to being close to fired dozens of times. Take that, and combine it with the horrible hurricane disaster in that region and the uncertainty of where they'll play their home games and you don't exactly have the recipe for a team that's going to make the playoffs. 8-8.
4.) Tampa Bay - I think their defense will still be decent, and Cadillac Williams gives them an exciting new running game to watch. But I don't see Brian Griese (despite being an ex-Wolverine) as the type of QB who is a difference maker. 6-10.
West:
1.) Seattle - Same top 10 offense. New improved defense. Low expectations. I like our chances. The schedule does look a bit rough this season, but if you look at the combined records from last year of their opponents, it's something like the 5th easiest schedule. Of course, having the likes of San Fran and Arizona on that schedule twice kind of tips the scales a bit. Still, Seattle should go at least 5-1 in divisional games. They need to learn to beat the goddamned Rams. 5-1 against the division, 5-5 against the rest of the league. Sounds about right. 10-6.
2.) St. Louis - I guess until Seattle starts beating the Rams on a regular basis, people will still like the Rams to win the division. Still, this team has Mike Martz as their coach. He's awful. And Marc Bulger throws way too many interceptions. Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk are a year older. And though Torry Holt is still dope and Stephen Jackson is supposed to step in for Faulk adequately, their defense still stinks. 9-7
3.) Arizona - The trendy pick for a team on the rise. Someone somewhere even called them "this year's Chargers". I see one big difference - last year's Chargers had a young QB still maturing step up and play well for them. This year's Cardinals has an aging QB who has gotten worse and worse each year. Warner is one concussion away from retirement, and that big hit might come in the first few weeks with their weak offensive line. Also, rookie J.J. Arrington who was supposed to be their savior at RB has been unimpressive in camp and pre-season. 8-8
4.) San Fran - 1st overall pick Alex Smith looked so bad in his first two preseason games that he has been benched for Tim Rattay. Their defense has a few recognizable names, but also some CBs that get toasted regularly. RB Kevan Barlow has been disappointing since given the full-time workload. If they finish worst overall, how can they pass on USC QB Matt Leinart with the first overall pick? Has any team ever taken a QB with the #1 overall pick two years in a row? I think I said it then, but I'll say it again. They should have taken Michigan WR Braylon Edwards this year, and aimed for Leinart next year. (PS - Edwards has looked awesome for the Browns this preseason.) 3-13.
Playoffs:
Wild Card Round:
Panthers 26, Rams 23
Seahawks 34, Packers 31
Divisional Round:
Eagles 27, Panthers 23
Seahawks 24, Vikings 23
NFC Championship:
Seahawks 19, Eagles 17
Super Bowl:
Seahawks 56, Patriots 0
Okay, well, maybe I'm stretching it a bit there. But that WAS the final score of Super Bowl XL in Madden 06, which I finished over the weekend. I knocked off the Bucs and Panthers in the playoffs, in close games, but dismantled the Patriots, who could not get a running game going, and Brady threw 3 picks.
Do I really think Seattle can reach the Super Bowl? Yes, I do. I have more faith this year than last year. Last year they were the "trendy" pick, which was the kiss of death. This year, most people are picking them to finish 2nd or 3rd in their division, even though their offense is exactly the same, and their defense should be better.
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