The 6/17th of a Season Power Rankings!

It's a special Tuesday treat! We're 35% done with the season, so let's have a little bit of Power Ranking fun, shall we? This is basically how I think the teams rank right now, and my final little section about who I think the playoff teams will be when the season ends doesn't necessarily match up. Like if a team looks like they suck right now, but I think they'll come around, they'll be rated low-ish, but still might show up on the playoff team list. (Like the Jets.) Likewise, if a team is playing pretty good right now, but I expect to collapse, they probably won't make the playoff list. (Like the Panthers.) It's parity at it's finest this year folks! Especially with the Brady injury and the Giants getting destroyed last night. Anyways, the first one shouldn't come as much of a surprise:

32. Lions
Valiant effort against the Vikings. They should have won that game. Blame Dan Orlovsky, product of that QB factory UConn. He stepped on the end zone back line for a safety with zero pressure on him early in the game, and those two points were the deciding factor.

31. Bengals
Looks like Carson Palmer's elbow problem may be more serious than originally thought which means bad news for the Bungles.

30. Rams
They move up two slots with an upset over the Redskins. These Rams do have a bit of life in them, and maybe the new coach will give them enough of a change to win a few games.

29. Raiders
What a freakshow in Oakland right now. They have a decent defense, and two high draft picks on offense in JaMarcus Russell and Darrenn McFadden. But it's starting to look like maybe Russell is a bust.

28. Chiefs
I'll say it again - Herm Edwards is a horrible coach. Maybe they'll do classy veteran Tony Gonzalez a favor and trade him to a contender before this week's trade deadline.

27. Seahawks
The defense looks awful. They're getting no pressure on the QB and the secondary is getting lit up. And now Hasselbeck is hurt and they're not sure when he'll be back. Looks like Holmgren's last season is a lost one.

26. Niners
After a couple good games, it looks like the league has caught up with J.T. O'Sullivan. He's staring down his receivers and now has more picks than TDs.

25. Texans
They're one of the few teams better than their horrible record. Gutsy win this week led by Matt Schaub. And had Sage Rosenfals not self destructed last week, this team would be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.

24. Vikings
They almost lost to the Lions. In Minnesota. We're hearing a lot less about Adrian Peterson. Their defense isn't as good as people think (especially against the pass) and Gus Frerotte hasn't exactly been the savior at QB.

23. Jaguars
This team is a bit of a mystery. Their running game is struggling. David Garrard looks mediocre at best. But their WRs are finally holding onto the ball and the defense seems decent.

22. Browns
Decent sized jump after demolishing the Giants. I had them at #27 in my rough draft done on Monday afternoon. I cannot figure this team out.

21. Dolphins
Chad Pennington looks good. Shocking, I know. They've knocked off a couple good teams already, but then they lose to the Texans. They're probably not quite ready to make a run at the AFC East, but they've got some fight in them.

20. Bears
Kyle Orton continues to look like he might be the answer at QB. Rookie RB Matt Forte has been awesome. (Which I've noticed mostly because he's on my fantasy team.) The defense isn't as dominant as a couple years ago, but still better than most.

19. Broncos
Another strange team. Seems their defense is pretty leaky, and their offense is mostly good, but a bit inconsistent. To be honest, I haven't followed them too much. So I'm just making this up.

18. Ravens
They looked good until they got drubbed by the Colts this week. I like their rookie QB, and their defense is still pretty good (though older). I think they're a borderline playoff team right now.

17. Packers
They are totally banged up, but Aaron Rodgers has hung in there and looked pretty good. They still have lots of weapons on offense. If the defense can weather the storm until they get healthy, they'll likely take the NFC North.

16. Saints
Yes, Drew Brees is still on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record. How come nobody else is talking about this? If his name were Romo or Favre, they would have been talking about this after week 2.

15. Jets
Speaking of Romo and Favre, I'm not quite sold on the Jets, but they have a pretty weak schedule (including the Raiders and Chiefs the next two weeks). It looks like they should make the playoffs.

14. Cowboys
Speaking of Romo and Favre, could it be Romo has been exposed as the overrated fraud I've been saying he is for months now? Dallas was very lucky that game even went to overtime against the Cardinals. Their defense can be thrown on very easily, and if you take away TO and Whitten, Romo doesn't have much to throw to.

13. Eagles
They miss Westbrook. But McNabb is playing very well right now and they have their typical solid defense. It'll be an interesting 4-way battle in the NFC East. Someone I don't think the Eagles will come out ahead, but they'll be in th thick of things.

12. Falcons
What the?!?! Who the?!? I continue to be shocked each week when I see the Falcons beating a legitimate opponent. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been awesome, but you have to give some credit to their coaching staff. They're turned a "rebuilding" year into a season with playoff aspirations.

11. Patriots
So much for Belichick out-coaching Norv Turner. I guess he'd need an NFL-caliber QB to do that. Still, I expect the Patriots to find a way to stick around for playoff contention somehow. I think.

10. Panthers
Just as I was starting to believe in them, they get dominated by the Bucs. The NFC South could be the league's most interesting division this year. It'll probably be tough for them to get 2 teams in the playoffs with the way the NFC East looks, but you never know.

9. Cardinals
They almost blew it, but they knocked off the Cowboys. The end of the game was eerily reminscient of the "They were who they thought they were!" meltdown against the Bears a few years ago. The difference? Denny Green was nowhere to be found to complete the self destruction.

8. Redskins
I would have had them as high as #3 had they not just lost to the Rams in DC. Ouch. Still, I like how they've knocked off both the Cowboys and Eagles on the road. As long as they don't do a reverse of last year and finish the season ice cold, they should make the playoffs.

7. Colts
A bit of a resurgence here for the Colts after spanking the Ravens. Their offensive line is getting healthy again, which is huge for the hobbled Manning. Their defense still has some questions, but as long as they keep Manning upright long enough to find Harrison and Wayne, they could look like the Colts of old.

6. Chargers
The toe injury to Tomlinson is worrisome. But Phillip Rivers is starting to look like the real deal at QB. Impressive win over the Patriots. It almost looks as if the AFC West is theirs for the taking again.

5. Steelers
They're banged up pretty badly, but somehow managed to squeeze out the last few wins. They could be dropping like a rock really soon, but I'm not too impressed with the rest of the AFC North at this point.

4. Bucanneers
I will spare you the Jeff Garcia joke in this power rankings item. However, expect the running gag (as unfunny as it may be) to return during this week's picks. In the meantime, somehow the Bucs defense looks pretty formidable again. And Warrick Dunn has found the Fountain of Youth.

3. Bills
I believe it was Week 2 when I said the Bills will win the AFC East. They hit a little stumble in Arizona, but I still believe this. Sad to say, but in the end, I think the Patriots are going to have a hard time over-coming the loss of Brady. The Bills get Trent Edwards back this week, which should help.

2. Giants
Minor fall after a bad road game on Monday night. I still think they're probably one of the best teams in the league. But a few more poor road showings like that, and maybe the NFC East is even more wide open than most people thought.

1. Titans
Presenting your starting QB of the #1 ranked NFL team - Kerry Collins! Seriously though, this team is doing it with hard-nosed defense and a solid running game. I've always liked Jeff Fisher, so it's good to see his team on top again. It'll be interesting to see their remaining AFC South games, especially against the Colts.

Playoff Teams:
(Going out on a limb here with the Falcons claiming a wild card, but I'm thinking the Cowboys are in deep trouble with Romo hurt and Pacman suspended..)

AFC: Titans, Steelers, Bills, Chargers, Jets, Colts
NFC: Giants, Bucanneers, Packers, Cardinals, Falcons, Redskins

Whoops

Some of you may have noticed that our blog is missing. I'm hoping St. Ides can take a look at this mess and fix it. The good news is all of our data and archives are where they should be, and it appears that only our template has gone slightly bonkers. Thanks all! Samichlaus

Week 6 Picks (in two acts) (second act now available)

Okay, so the annual 5/16th Season Team Rankings will be a week late. Next week it'll be the 6/16th Season Team Rankings, and the extra game should allow me an even better idea of where things stand, especially with some key matchups this week.

First of all, let me apologize for the cheap shot I took at Anonymous last week. The truth is he is an integral part of this blog, and we miss his comments. So what happens? Anon posts a comment and the Steves have nothing to say. Double ouchers. Second, this week Ol' Samichlaus committed a cardinal sin of IT: my computer appeared to be a bit thirsty on Wednesday, so in the middle of a presentation to a client I proceded to share a cup of coffee with my laptop. The computer did a Lincolesque "death rattle", shut itself off, and effectively curtailed my presentation. As a result I am currently residing in the fifth layer of Vista hell, where half of the work I need to do must be done from inside a 32 bit XP virtual machine I set up for said purpose.

Welcome to my nightmare...

After a nice week, Samichlaus pulls 1 game ahead on the season. We could be going back and forth all year, folks. That's what I call mediocre picking at its finest.

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 9-5
St. Ides: 6-8

Overall:
Samichlaus: 30-31
St. Ides: 29-32

Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2) -5.5
I would have been tempted to take the Bengals and the points this week over a Jets team I'm not quite sold on. Then I heard Carson Palmer is out, and that Fitzgerald guy will be the Bungles QB again. So yeah, I'll lay the points. Jets 24, Bungles 16.

After Brett the Jet had a career game two weeks ago, the well rested Jets should have no problems with Cincinnati. Besides, what can you say about a team that comes from a city that puts cinnamon and chocolate in their chili? I'll be tuning in to this one for my early game on Sunday... which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Jets 31 Bengals 20

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1) -13.5
This one has trap game written all over it. The Rams can't be THAT bad, can they? They're coming off a bye and it'll be their first game since they fired Linehan. The Redskins have knocked off the Cowboys and Eagles both on the road. I'm taking the points. Skins 23, Rams 13.

I like the analysis, but I'm going to disagree: I think the Rams ARE that bad, and the coaching change isn't going to help. In fact, I'll bet the initial impact is going to be detrimental. Jim Zorn continues to impress, and the Skins are starting to believe in their coach. It's going to be a happy Sunday in DC which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Skins 27 Rams 10

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3) -7.5
Would you believe the Saints are in last place in the NFC South at 2-3? Yep, it's true. And Drew Brees is still on pace to set the single-season passing yardage record. He gets back Marques Colston this week, which should help. Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a weird place. They fired Lane Kiffin before last week's bye (just like the Rams) but QB JaMarcus Russell told reporters he still talks to Kiffin on the phone and Kiffin has been coaching him this week. What the....?! Anyways, the Saints need a win badly, and I think they cover. Saints 30, Raiders 16.

Dead on analysis above. The Russell - Kiffin thing borders on the bizarre, which is completely in order for the Raiders. New Orleans comes off a tough Monday night loss to the Vikings despite the almost unfathomable performance by Reggie Bush, so yes, they are going to be primed for dominance this week. The Saints win and cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary..
Saints 34 Raiders 13

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4) -3.5
In my "money pool" where I pick 5 games each week, I lost 3 games by half a point last week. Including the Texans losing by 4 (they were getting 3.5) to the Colts when Sage Rosenfals self-destructed and turned the ball over 3 times in like 45 seconds. Ugh. Anyways, I think the Dolphins are probably about due for a stinker, and the Texans really aren't as bad as their record. Texans 27, Dolphins 20.

Why are the Dolphins due for a stinker? In the last two weeks they've knocked off New England and San Diego, two of the best teams in the AFC. Meanwhile the Texans keep finding ways to lose, and I can't blame that pear shaped big ass Mike Sherman anymore. Sherman coaches at Texas A&M who plays on Saturdays. This Sunday you can find Sherman at the local "Golden Corrall, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Dolphins 24 Texans 17

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2) -4.5
The Colts needed the aforementioned Sage Rosenfals meltdown to pull out last week's game. I think Vegas is setting these spreads based upon the past reputation of the Colts, not this season's reality. Colts lose outright. Ravens 23, Colts 20.

I like Baltimore and the points as well. What on earth is going on in Indy? The days of that offense doing whatever it wants seems to be a thing of the past. Peytie-pie has been nothing short of mediocre, which is a good thing. He was getting a little big headed don't you think? Manning is looking for a big game on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary, but it ain't going to be enough to cover.
Colts 27 Baltimore 24

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2) +2.5
I have no clue what to think about either of these teams. Kyle Orton has looked decent at QB for the Bears, which is shocking. Yet Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have made the Falcons offense look pretty good themselves. I don't know much more than that, so I'll take the home points. Falcons 23, Bears 20.

Honestly I'm not surprised by Kyle Orton, who as I've said before simply wins football games. The Falcons on the other hand have been a surprise. In fact they shocked the shit out of me last week by beating the Packers at home, but a lot of that had to do with the matador defense the Pack seemed to be playing. There's no way the Bears are going to let a rookie QB beat them Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Bears 20 Falcons 13

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3) -13.5
The Lions are really really bad. But I'll take two TDs against a divisional rival with a shaky QB any time. Almost any time. Vikings 23, Lions 10.

I won't waste too much time on this either except to say that yes, two TDs against a division rival is too much even on a Sunday which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Vikings 30 Detroit 20

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) -1.5
Key NFC South matchup. Somehow, Jeff Garcia is still behind Brian Griese on the Tampa Bay depth chart. (Though Griese should make sure he doesn't let Garica behind him in the shower.) Carolina looks like they have their usual solid defense back in place, and Jake Delhomme gives them just enough consistency on offense. I like the Cats. Panthers 23, Bucs 20.

Thank you St. Ides for the weekly Jeff-Garcia-is-Gay cheap shot. I heard he fathered a child with that guy from "Idol"... or was it with Brady Anderson? I forget. Anyway, I like the Cats as well. Tampa is tough at home, but these are similar teams who play similar defense. In other words there's no surprises in store thus Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Cats 27 Bucs 23

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1) -3.5
Cutler has looked pretty good so far. David Garrard, who I was never sold on despite his sparkling TD-to-Int ratio last year, has not. The Jags running game has also sucked, which is unusual. I'll take the Broncos and the high altitude. Broncos 27, Jaguars 17.

Just take any analysis I've done for Denver at home over the course of the last 4 seasons and insert it here. I always like Denver at home and this week is no exception. 3.5 should be easy enough for the Broncos to cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Broncos 23 Jags 17

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3) -2.5
Two desperate teams. Seattle was absolutely embarrassed last week by the Giants, and I sat through the whole game in person. It was brutal. The secondary looked lost. Their #2 CB, be it Kelly Jennings or Josh Wilson, has been abused all season. (It doesn't help that they're both about as tall as Doug Flutie.) The last time these two teams met, Ryan Grant ran over Seattle and eliminated them from the playoffs. At the time, I thought it was a legitimate excuse that the small "built for speed" Seahawks defense was at a huge disadvantage on the snow-slick field. Now? I'm not so sure they just don't completely suck all around. If Seattle has anything going for them it's that the Green Bay defense is horribly battered, Holmgren has been laying into the team all week in practice, and they still do have the loudest home crowd in the league. I'm quickly losing faith in this team. A loss here, and I'll be starting to look at potential first round draft picks next spring and hope that when Jim Mora Jr. takes over the reigns as head coach, he'll hire a defensive coordinator who isn't afraid to blitz. Packers 49, Seahawks 20.

WTF? You laid out a perfect case for a Seattle win and then predict a Packer victory? I've got to say, I didn't expect the Seahawks to roll over like little bitches against the mighty Giants. You poor, poor bastard. What a game to see. I mean Jesus H. Christ in a chicken basket. Anyway, here's why I think Seattle wins this week. First, Aaron Rodgers is still hurt and almost came out of the Falcons game. Although he played well at times, he was awful at other times ("I didn't have enough arm on a few passes" he said) Second, he's never played in a stadium as loud as Seattles. Third, Mike Holmgren is a better coach than Mike McArthy, who appears to be coaching as usual this week. Fourth, the Packers running game has been terrible, and to win against Seattle you've got to run the ball. Finally, the Packers defense has been abysmal, and the fans are clamoring for defensive coordinator Bob Sanders's head. Again. One more disastrous performance on Sunday (which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary) by this D and I'll be clamoring for it as well.
Seattle 30 Green Bay 27

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3) +4.5
Brian Westbrook won't be playing, and that's huge. The Niners are a weird team. But I really don't trust the Eagles on the west coast without Westbrook giving points. Eagles 23, Niners 20.

I don't buy it. I think the Eagles will be just fine against the Niners with or without Westbrook. They're a better team than their 2-3 record indicates. The Niners on the other hand are worse than their record indicates. I like Philly by a TD this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Eagles 23 Niners 15

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2) +5.5
Did someone around here say the Cowboys were overrated? Oh yeah, that was me. They lose to the Skins at home and then struggle a bit against the Bungles? I'll take the Cardinals and the points. Even though I'd like the Cardinals to lose so Seattle stays close in the NFC West, I think they might just win this game totally. Cardinals 30, Cowboys 29.

St. Ides was right and Ol' Samichlaus was wrong: The Cowboys have come back to earth just as he predicted. But the Cardinals beating them outright? First of all the 'Boys are the better team. Second, it's going to be like a home game for them in AZ this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary. I like Dallas by a TD at least.
Dallas 34 Arizona 27.

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) -5.5
The Patriots are not as dead as Anonymous might have us believe. Plus, Norv Turner is still a pretty horrible coach. I think the Patriots D ought to be able to give Phillip Rivers a bit of trouble and they usually do a pretty good job containing Tomlinson. Speaking of running backs.. Has anybody seen Maroney lately? I made the mistake of drafting him in my fantasy league, and he's been frickin invisible. (Luckily I also got Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte in late rounds, so me team is doing well.) Patriots 23, Chargers 20.

Last year I called Maroney the best young back in the league. So I read St. Ides's comments and did a little research and found this:

"Laurence Maroney says there's a very good reason he's not running the ball particularly well for the New England Patriots.And that's just about all he'll say on a subject that has been irritating Patriots fans all season long.

"Hey, I have my issues," Maroney said Friday before New England finished up its final practice at San Jose State, the Pats' home between last weekend's win over the 49ers and Sunday night's trip to face the San Diego Chargers. "There are reasons," said Maroney, who has just 93 yards rushing in three appearances for New England (3-1). "I'd rather not speak about them, but there are reasons."

Jeez. OK, read the article here.

Meanwhile, this Sunday night (when I'm hoping to be poking the luscious Mrs. Samichlaus on our 6th anniversary) take the Pats and the points.
Bolts 31 Patriots 30

NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3) +7.5
Good luck, Browns! The Giants looked frickin unbeatable last week. Their offensive line is awesome, and they were blowing open HUGE holes to run through. I don't want to spend too much time thinking about that game any more, or I'll get depressed. But yeah, the Browns don't have a prayer. Giants 27, Browns 10.

Let's forget all about last week and think happy thoughts like puppy dogs farting rainbows. As much as I admire the Giants, a TD on the road is an awful lot. I'll go the other way here, because Cleveland is so tough at home. This is a good Monday night game, which happens to be a day after me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Giants 24 Cleveland 20

Week 5 Picks (Part One) (and Part Two!!!)

With byes starting last week, we took one too! (Samichlaus may have needed the extra time to recover after what appears to have been his worst week since we started doing this. Ouch.) Anyways, it doesn't seem anyone missed us since we're not getting the usual harassment from Anonymous, who seems to have deserted us.

This just proves what I've suspected all along: Anonymous is a big pussy who crawls under the stairs and hides when his precious Quarterback isn't on TV on Sundays. Typical chowderhead behavior.

Is he back yet?

Last Time:
St. Ides: 7-9
Samichlaus: 4-12

Overall:
St. Ides: 23-24
Samichlaus: 21-26

Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1) +2.5
I watched most of the Steelers-Ravens game on Monday night. You know, this Flacco kid may be the best QB the Ravens have had since.... Kyle Boller? Tony Banks? Chris Redman? Trent Dilfer? There we go, Trent Dilfer. Which isn't saying a whole lot, but still. They very well could have beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Anyways, I'm going to continue to ride the Titans momentum until they come crashing down. I like their defense and I like their running game. Though this should be a tough game for them.

Titans 19, Ravens 13.

Boy, was I ever spot on with my analysis of the Titans. These guys have found a way to win every week. I like Baltimore as well, and Joe Flacco has played well beyond his years, but last week Pittsburgh found a way to attack their defense. I’m going to ride with the Titans until they lose

Titans 23 Ravens 20

Atlanta (2-2) at Green Bay (2-2) -6.5
So the Packers have come crashing down to earth with back-to-back losses. And now Rodgers may have an injured shoulder, potentially putting the team in the hands of a rookie. Oh look, there's a rookie QB on the other side of the field too. Ladies and gentlemen, Matt Ryan! He's looked pretty good so far, and even the two wins the Falcons have already are more than some people thought they'd have all season. Still, Lambeau should be way too much for him against the Packers (admittedly beaten up) defense.

Packers 23, Falcons 13.

Aaron Rodgers is hurt. Al Harris is out. And the Pack has looked less than ordinary the last two weeks. Rodgers health has always been a concern for Packer fans: every time he’s had a chance to play, he’s been seriously injured. This week won’t be easy for the Pack: I like the Falcons and the points

Green Bay 30 Atlanta 24

Chicago (2-2) at Detroit (0-3) +3.5
Ding, dong, the witch is dead! Or Matt Millen is finally out in Detroit. He was actually out last week, but since the Lions had a bye (and so did we), I'll write about it now. This might just be enough to list the shadow of doom from the franchise. Or it might not. They still have to live with his horrible personnel decisions. Rookie Bears RB Matt Forte has looked mostly good so far this season. He should have a big game.

Bears 23, Lions 10.

Detroit finally put Matt Millen out of his misery, ending one of the most bizarre careers in NFL history. Not since the days of my old boss Paul Mancini has a man with such little talent achieve so much personal success. What an idiot. Anyway, it’s the same crappy Detroit players against a good Bears team. And I keep telling my Chi-town coworkers: all Kyle Orton does in win football games.

Bears 27 Detroit 10

Kansas City (1-3) at Carolina (3-1) -9.5
Okay, someone figure out the Chiefs for me please? Just as me and my colleague talk about how hard it is to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead, they lay a stinker. Then last week, as I'm sure I would have picked against them in KC against the 3-0 Broncos, they kill them. I'm tempted to take the points because almost 10 is a lot and this smells like a trap game, but I just can't doit.

Panthers 23, Chiefs 9.

That’s a lot of points for Carolina to cover but then again they’re playing Kansas City. On the positive side for KC, Larry Johnson had a good week last week. That’s it. Carolina continues to play well, and my earlier reported demise of John Fox as a good coach was clearly erroneous.

Carolina 24 Kansas City 7

Indianapolis (1-2) at Houston (0-3) +3.5
The Texans are better than 0-3. And the Colts are better than 1-2. Houston usually plays Indy tough, so I'll take the home dog. Colts 27, Texans 24.

Coming off a needed bye, the Colts travel to Houston for some well deserved R&R. They are relatively healthy and rested. This is all you need to know to handicap this game. The Colts are at least a touchdown better than the Texans. Factor in the 3 points you “get” at home and that’s a 4 point differential.

Colts 34 Houston 30

San Diego (2-2) at Miami (1-2) +6.5
Tomlinson hasn't really gone off yet this year. Maybe this is the week. Phillip Rivers is the #1 Fantasy Football QB at this point. That's pretty wacky. I don't think it lasts, but I also don't think Miami is very good. They're probably just happy to have beaten the Patriots and now they can relax the rest of the season and guarantee Parcells a few more high draft picks to play around with. Chargers 29, Dolphins 13.

The last time I saw Miami play they were kicking the ever living shit out of the Patriots. I mean absolutely pulverizing them. I wrote that New England was going to make that a statement game… more on that in a minute. Realistically I don’t think the Fins have enough to beat the Bolts, but I’ve got a hunch they’ll keep it close

Chargers 30 Miami 27

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2) -5.5
How about that NFC East! The Skins actually looked pretty awesome against the Cowboys. But McNabb looks rejuvenated, and Westbrook should be back after missing the last game. The Skins are due for a stinker on the road.

Eagles 27, Skins 20.

Jim Zorn is starting to make a believer out of me. Here’s a guy who has an obvious and exponential learning curve, and because of this the Redskins are a different team than the one we saw in week one. What they did to the Cowboys last week was brilliant. The Eagles? They still have Westbrook and McNair, and McNair looks better than he has in a long time. The Eagles win a close one…

Eagles 30 Skins 27

Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0) -7.5
Speaking of the NFC East... Little known fact: Seattle is 8-0 in their last 8 games against the NFC East. Including 3-0 in the playoffs (2 against the Skins, 1 against the Cowboys.) Deion Branch and Bobby Engram should both be back for this game. The Giants 3 wins are against the Skins (who looked shell-shocked in the Thursday night opener), the Rams (0-4), and the Bungals (0-4). Seattle has been awful on the East Coast lately, and their secondary has been shaky. Though the Giants will be without Plaxico Burress for this one. I'm tempted to say Seattle will shock everyone and win this game outright, but I know better. Oh, and I'll be at this game. The third Seahawks-Giants game I'll be attending since my friend Dar got season tickets about 7 years ago. The Seahawks are 0-2 in those games. I'm looking at 0-3, and a Seahawks 1-3 hole that will have people writing then off for the year.

Giants 26, Seahawks 17.

If only we had a way to blog live from this game. St. Ides pointed out in week one that Seattle has issues with East Coast teams anb 1:00 starts, but with the walking wounded returning to the lineup I am not counting them out. Matt Hassleback might faint from the excitement of getting his top receivers back in the mix, and that's going to be enough to keep this under a touchdown.

Giants 20 Seattle 17

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Denver (3-1) -3.5
Denver has to be embarassed after losing to the Chiefs. The Bucs are riding high after knocking off the Packers. I'll take the Broncos.

Broncos 27, Bucs 20.

The question I have to ask is how did Denver lose to KC? That might have been a little Arrowhead magic returning to Kansas City. Denver heads home and we know how much I like them at home. The Bucs beat the Packers on turnovers, and Denver isn't going to turn the ball over like Green Bay did.

Broncos 24 Bucs 20

New England (2-1) at San Francisco (2-2) +3.5
Welcome to the NFL, J.T. O'Sullivan. The Patriots do a lot of traveling this season, playing both the AFC West and NFC West. I'll be pretty surprised if they haven't been able to cook up a winning plan for the Niners during their bye week.

Patriots 23, Niners 17.

New England had a statement game against the Dolphins, but they didn't make the statement I thought they would. It was more of a "you've seen our QB for a week, now have at him. We've got nothing". I wonder if San Francisco can do to Cassel what Miami did? Chances are the Patriots will show up with their game faces on. Time to revise that statement.

New England 31 San Francisco 13

Cincinnati (0-4) at Dallas (3-1) -14.5
Wow, that's a lot of points to give. Who do they think the Cowboys are, the 07 Pats? I'm glad it only took 4 weeks for the Cowboys to be exposed as overrated. They're not a 2 TD favorite over anybody. Their defense just isn't good enough.

Cowboys 27, Bengals 16.

Dallas at home against a really bad team. I don't think 2 TDs are nearly enough. Are the Cowboys overrated? Of course they are. Listening to Cowboy nation is worse than listening to Fox news pining over Sarah Palin. But the truth is they're a good football team, and I'm not just saying that because I'm so totally their bitch after they whupped the Pack

Cowboys 37 Bengals 17

Buffalo (4-0) at Arizona (2-2) -0.5
The Bills actually struggled a little bit against the Rams. But the Rams were playing for their coach's life. Meanwhile, Kurt Warner seems to have reverted to the ' "Lay A Finger On Him And He Coughs Up The Ball" jittery old man we've come to know the past few years. The Cardinals need to win home games like this if they really expect to challenge for the abyssmal NFC West.

Bills 23, Cardinals 20.

I can't fathom the Bills going to 5-0. They're heading to a very warm climate against a decent football team, and I think that's all its going to take to stop them. Samichlaus heard that Sage Rosenfels has Kurt Warner's ear, and Kurt may be converting to Judism. Ok, I made that up. But if it did happen and Arizona won a Super Bowl, would Warner scream out "THANK YOU MOSES!"?

Cardinals 24 Bills 20

Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2) -3.5
The Steelers are just way too beaten up. They're down to the 4th string RB (there's been a Dookie sighting, as he was resigned this week amid all the injuries!), Big Ben has a bum shoulder, they have injuries on both lines.. I don't trust the Jags at all, but I think a physical Monday night OT game against the Ravens mean a let-down game for the Steelers.

Jaguars 19, Steelers 10.

The Samichlaus household was thrilled to hear that "The Dump Truck" was signed to a contract to play in Pittsburgh. Sorry hon, that's what they call him in Pittsburgh. We'll always be big Najeh Davenport fans here, he was my wife's favorite player. We saw his last regular season game in Green Bay when after scoring two TDs he broke his ankle, never to return. Meanwhile I think St. Ides is dead on. Pittsburgh is hurting bad and Big Ben is questionable. No QB and no RB equals no points.

Jacksonville 23 Pittsburgh 17

Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2) -3.5
Drew Brees has quietly been lights out so far this season. Despite losing Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey, he's on pace to shatter Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record. That should continue this week, as the Vikes are solid against the run, but vulnerable in the air. Talk about a team not living up to the pre-season hype, the Vikings are staring at 1-4, and they can't even blame it on injuries. What they can blame it on is poor coaching and a horrible decision to stick with Tavaris Jackson at QB.

Saints 26, Vikings 13.

The Vikings are pathetic. Thank God they play in the NFC North: between them and Detroit that's at least 3 wins for the Pack. I have to say I didn't realize how well Brees has been playing, but if you've got him in your fantasy league then play him. Samichlaus's crystal ball says Brad Childress is the next coach to go....

Saints 30 Vikings 17

Shea Goodbye

Todd Pratt, a big, sweet, dumb as a box of rocks former catcher for the Mets used to say to his teammates upon returning home to Shea Stadium from a road trip "It's not much boys, but it's home". And I think that's the best way to describe "Big Shea", once a state of the art multi-purpose stadium, reduced to a proverbial shit hole. Shea was home to a lot of memories for me, and this week my family and I got to say goodbye on Sunday from row O in the Mezzanine just along the third base side, not too far from the first seats I ever sat in at Shea.

My first ballgame at Shea was in 1968. My big brother (Butch...I have several big brothers) took me, and we sat in the Mezzanine in a box seat. I remember this for two reasons: first, the metal crossbar that defined the box of seats was eye level to my 5 year old head effectively obstructing my view. Second, during a Mets rally my brother let out a yell that startled me so much I banged my head into the aforementioned cross bar. I couldn't see, right? So I was peering under the cross bar and that's how I banged my head. Oh, and the Mets lost, but that was OK. I had the time of my life.

As I got older, my friends and I would make the trek to the big ball park on our own. I lived three blocks from the 7 train so getting to Shea was easy. In 1974 I saw my first tit on one of these treks: a woman was running up the stairs at 74th street and Roosevelt Ave. and as she leapt on to the 7, her tit popped out of her shirt. I was with my best friend, Joe Peters, and we were mesmerized. The woman looked at us, looked down at her tit, and calmly tucked it back into her shirt. Joe and I talked about that tit for weeks. You know, the braless 1970's was a good time to be a young horny kid.

I saw Tom Seaver pitch, Willie Mays play center, I saw great hopes named Mike Vail and Roy Staiger fall short of expectations. I saw Dave Kingman hit a ball out of the stadium and into the parking lot, where it struck a parked car on it's hood. It was the greatest homerun I ever saw. I saw amazing pitchers named Koosman and Matlack, and McGraw and Lockwood, and even Mickey Lolich...

Lolich was a fat pitcher the Mets aquired in a trade with Detroit. They gave up Rusty Staub, one of the great hitters in all of baseball to get Lolich, and my friend Joe would sing this song: "LoLICH, you fat sonofabitch". Everybody hated Lolich, mostly because he wasn't Rusty Staub but to make matters worse, my friends took to calling me "Mickey" because I was a fat pitcher as well. So for years I carried Lolich's baseball card in my wallet as a reminder of all the little bastards that were still stuck in that fucking neighborhood.

I digress....

In 1977 the Mets traded Tom Seaver to Cincinnati, and when the Reds came to play the Mets I was at Shea to see him pitch. It was the only time I openly rooted against the Mets and I wasn't alone. Seaver and the Reds won that day and the crowd let him know exactly how much he was loved.

By the way, in return for the greatest pitcher in baseball history the Mets got, and I quote: Pat Zachary, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, and Dan Norman, and no I didn't have to look it up. I saw Steve Henderson win a ballgame once with a walk-off home run, and that made me cheer. Zachary was a decent pitcher, and Flynn was a decent second baseman. Dan Norman didn't amount to anything.

When Seaver returned to the Mets in 1983, I was at the first game he pitched sitting in the Field Box on the first base side. The crowd chanted "Seaver! Seaver!" as he walked in to pitch the first inning. He won, 2-0.

In the 1980s I saw a lot of ball games. I saw Lenny Dykstra win a NLCS game against Houston with a walk-off homer, and I was there for "Strawberry Sunday", when we all got free Carvel ice cream in honor of Darryl Strawberry. I saw Doc Gooden pitch before the drugs fucked him up. I saw Keith Hernandez play, the best first baseman I have ever seen.

Of course, the 1980's were highlighted by the acquisition of what we called "Tud Tickets". FYI, that word you just read rhymes with "good". My uncle Tud worked for a greeting card company called Alfred Mainzer. They had seats on the first base side, second row. My cousin Frank and I saw many a game from those seats, but the best part was how we'd get in touch. Tud would call my Mom and say "I've got the tickets". Mom in turn would call me, and I in turn would call Frank. If I got his voice mail, I'd leave a message consisting of two words: "Tud Tickets". Then I would go into a ritualistic trance and try to contact him using psychic powers. I'd repeat in my mind "Tud Tickets" and "Check your voice mail". Remember, this was the 1980's and we didn't have cell phones yet. About an hour later I'd get a call from my cousin. "HOLY SHIT!!! I SWEAR, SOMETHING TOLD ME TO CHECK MY VOICE MAIL!!! HOLY SHIT!!!"

By the time the 1990's came around, a lot of things changed. The Yankees had become the fashionable team, my cousin had gotten married to a beautiful girl named Lisa who loved the Mets as much as he did, and Uncle Tud dropped dead effectively cutting off my supply of good seats. I don't remember the last time I visited Shea, honestly.

Last February I got a call from Butch. "I've got a plan!" he announced, and proceded to explain how the Mets were having a lottery for tickets to the last game at Shea. The plan was we would both enter the lottery and try to win the opportunity to buy tickets, and if we won we'd meet in New York in the fall. Well, I won, which amused my brother to no end. "The only time this family ever wins something", laughed Butch, "is the opportunity to pay someone money". According to the rules I was allowed to purchase up to 6 tickets, and I did: one for Butch, two for his friend Billy (Billy brought his son Will), one for my wife and one for my cousin.

And then my wife thought about the game. "You know, I'd like to go" she said, "but it would mean more to Lisa, don't you think?" My wife remembered that once, in passing, I mentioned that Frank and Lisa watched about 150 games a year. That's how good my wife is. "We'll make it a Christmas present".

Sunday's game, like so many games this season, was a heart breaker. We all cheered and hoped, and in the end the bull pen blew a lead, and the Mets couldn't score enough runs. But the ceremony after the game made it all worthwhile. All of the Mets greats and some of the not so greats returned. Dave Kingman got a huge hand, as did John Franco, who I feared was going to get booed simply because he might be perceived as the symbol of lousy bullpens. George Foster was there, and some people booed him. I just groaned. Cleon Jones and Ron Hunt and Ed Kranepool and Ron Swoboda reminded me of how I felt when I first became aware of this game and this team that I loved. Felix Millian and Doug Flynn and Stork Theodore and Craig Swan reminded me of my best childhood friend Joe Peters, who passed away several years ago from pancreatic cancer. That's why I wanted to write about him today. The guys from 1986, Lenny Dykstra, Keith Hernandez, Ron Darling, Doc Gooden, and Darryl Strawberry reminded me what it was like to be in my 20's in New York in the 1980s. Mike Piazza and Robin Ventura and Todd Zeiel got huge ovations, and that reminded me that a new generation of Mets fans had come to take my place when I left New York.

And in the end, Tom Seaver pitching to Mike Piazza was the perfect ending. They walked off the field together, arm in arm, and closed Shea Stadium once and for all.

After the game we all said goodbye in the parking lot. Lisa gave me a great hug and said "Thank you so much, this is the greatest Christmas present ever... and please thank Karen for giving up her ticket. I know this was all her doing".

Thanks Shea. Thanks for the best 44 years of my life.

Predictions Gone Right

I was cleaning up the desktop on my computer yesterday, and came across a rough draft of an item I posted last season. Since we get about as many things wrong as right with our predictions around here, allow me a moment to pat myself on the back for these two good ones... One of them eerily accurate...

Posted on 10/10/2007, after week 5, Power Rankings for the league:

"Playoff Teams:

AFC: Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Titans, Ravens, Raiders (someone has to win the AFC West, right?)
NFC: Packers, Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks, Lions, Giants"

Wow, not bad. Only 1 NFC miss (Skins instead of Lions, who, to be fair, were 3-1 at that point I think.) 2 AFC misses - Jags and Chargers instead of Ravens and Raiders.(Wow, did I really pick the Raiders?) Hitting on 9 of the 12 playoff teams only 5 weeks into the season means something.. Either I got lucky, or I was able to really feel which teams were truly good and bad. I'll chalk it up to luck.

So look for the tradition to continue, with another Power Rankings item after week 5!

Now for the other accurate item:
"2. Patriots
Some more quotes I sent to Anonymous: "Oh and repeat after me again: "I am a Patriots fan, I am spoiled by success, and I can expect ZERO sympathy from the Steves this season. None whatsoever." Also, did you see the Browns accusing Vrabel of going for the knees? Between that and Wilfork, there's some bad karma building up. You've been warned." While they're enjoying running up the score against everybody as a big "F You" to those who might think their video-taping shennanigans, what goes around comes around. The Football Gods have not finished with this scenario yet. And while Tom Brady gets allllllll my love, he's about due for a torn ACL, isn't he? I mean, if Patriots players are going for opposing QBs' knees, (something they absolutely do not need to do to win), it's just a matter of time before someone gives them a taste of their own medicine."

Week 3 Picks!

Okay, meeting over, here's the color-coding stuff and records from last week. I did a bit better...

Last Week:
St. Ides: 9-6
Samichlaus: 7-8

Overall:
Samichlaus: 17-14
St. Ides: 16-15

And now, the picks...

Cincinnati (0-2) at NY Giants (2-0) -13.5
What do you get when you take a bad team, send them on the road to play a good team with a serious D, and give ‘em almost a two touchdown head start? You get a sucker bet. I’m officially convinced: after losing two weeks in a row taking the Bungals, there’s no way I take them this week.
Giants 30 Bengals 10

I agree. Though a late garbage time TD might help the Bungles cover. Their offense is pretty bad and their defense is even worse. Giants 23, Bengals 6.

Arizona (2-0) at Washington (1-1) -3.5
St. Ides nailed it last week: this could be the Cardinals year. Going up against former Seahawk “great” Jim Zorn and his Redskins shouldn’t be a big issue. The Skins surprised me last week with a performance that showed maybe this Zorn guy might know a thing or two about being a head coach, but I don’t see the Skins winning this game. I really like the Cards and the points.
Arizona 20 Washington 17

Whoa whoa, slow down. Let's not go crazy. The Cardinals have beaten the Niners and Dolphins so far. Those teams combined for, what, about 5 wins last season? Long road trip for the Cardinals and I'm going to say this every week until it happens - Kurt Warner's lack of mobility is going to get him hurt. Jason Taylor might be just the person to do it. Skins 20, Cardinals 16.

Kansas City (0-2) at Atlanta (1-1) -5.5
So much for being tough at Arrowhead. The Chiefs won’t start winning until they’re 2-8 with no chance of making the playoffs. Just another Herm Edwards season: win when it doesn’t matter. Besides, there’s no way KC brings the kind of pressure Matt Ryan saw against the Bucs, who sacked the young QB 4 times. I like Atlanta by a ten spot.
Atlanta 27 Kansas City 17

The Chiefs may be the worst team in the league this year. It looks like some guy named Thigpen might be their starting QB this week. Another big day for Michael Turner. Falcons 24, Chiefs 16.

Tampa Bay (1-1) at Chicago (1-1) -3.5
With Devon Hester banged up, the Bears will be hard pressed to do anything to score this week. But the Bucs will be hard pressed to do anything either. Although Tommie Harris of the Bears has been limited in practice, look for him to start. This game will come down to which D can make more plays, and that D belongs to Chicago. I like the Bears in a close game
Chicago 15 Tampa Bay 10

I think it's safe to say John Gruden is officially off his rocker. First he tells Derrick Brooks he's under a gag order with the media regarding any hint about his injury. Then he starts Brian "How Am I Still In The NFL, Nevermind A Starter" Griese over Jeff "I'm Not Really Too Injured Too Play But I Am Gay" Garcia. And says Griese is the starter for the forseeable future. Now he's pissed off because WR Michael Clayton said he's ready to start for an injured Joey Galloway, flipping out because HE'S the head coach, and HE will decide who starts when. Sheesh. Anyways, it's just enough wackiness to think the Bears will hold at home. Bears 16, Bucs 10.

Carolina (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2) -3.5
This week St. Ides emailed me to announce the beginning of the Gus Frerotte era in Minnesota. Jeez. These guys are pretty desperate, and with Adrian Peterson nursing a hamstring injury again I ask: where is the offense going to come from? The Panthers have been surprisingly good. They’re playing smart D and winning games. I like them this week to win outright.
Caroline 24 Minnesota 23

Yeah, I like the Panthers too. They're 2-0 and that was without Steve Smith. Now Smith is back, and I'm sure he's fired up. Maybe this time he can direct some of that passion at the opponent instead of his teammates. I'm enjoying watching the Vikings struggle, especially since they were a popular Super Bowl pick with the "real media" in the offseason. And that has nothing to do with the fact they stole Steve Hutchinson from Seattle. Okay, it does. Fuck the Vikings. Panthers 17, Vikings 16.

Miami (0-2) at New England (2-0) -12.5
I heard some Dolphin this week mouthing off about “No Tom Brady, that’s a win for us”. Bad move. If the Patriots needed any further motivation to win this game big, that was it. I really think the Pats will make this a statement game and I pity the hapless Dolphins who despite their best efforts just aren’t any good.
New England 34 Miami 6

That "some Dolphin" was resident NFL knucklehead and former Steeler Joey Porter. The best part about that story was the next day he said "Man, all you media guys took my words out of context and twisted it around!" And then he proceeded to say the exact same thing about Cassel a second time. What a moron. Still, if the Chiefs kept it kind of close in Week 1, maybe the Pats just aren't going to totally thrash anyone this season? I'll probably regret this, but I'm taking the points. Patriots 23, Dolphins 13.

Oakland (1-1) at Buffalo (2-0) -9.5
With the threat of unemployment looming over his head, Lane Kiffin rallied his troops last week in a shocking upset. The Bills on the other hand continue to surprise me with their hard fought victories. I keep waiting for the Dick Jauron factor to kick in, but maybe he’s realizing his potential as a head coach. 9.5 is a lot of points to cover, right? Even for a good Bills team at home
Buffalo 27 Oakland 20

It's only week 3, but here's a bold prediction: the Bills win the AFC East. That's a good young team. Their defense has looked very good. And their offense isn't too bad either, with Trent Edwards seeming to be a solid QB. The Raiders won't put up many points. Bills 23, Raiders 10.

Houston (0-1) at Tennessee (2-0) -4.5
So much for my theory about the Titans. I’m telling you, this team had nothing against Green Bay in their final preseason game, and here they are winning football games. Houston was given a week off thanks to Ike so they are well rested but the question remains: are they any good? I’m going to give them a shot this week, but not to win. As improbable as this sounds to me, look for the Titans to go to 3-0
Tennessee 20 Houston 17

The Titans have a pretty solid defense. And we really don't know what we have in the Texans. I'm sticking with Tennessee until they prove me wrong. Titans 23, Texans 13.

St. Louis (0-2) at Seattle (0-2) -9.5
OK, Seattle is in a tough situation. I have never, and I mean never seen a team so obliterated by injuries. If San Francisco can whup them at home then I think the Rams can keep it closer than 9.5. I wonder what kind of shape Koren Robinson is in, because he’s probably going to be the Seahawks #1 receiver this week. Unbelieveable.
Seattle 34 St. Louis 27

Yep, Seattle went into last week's game down their top 4 WRs. By midway throguh the 1st quarter, they were down their top 6 WRs. TOP SIX!!!! They had 3 healthy WRs, 2 of which hadn't been on the team the previous Tuesday. Still, they should have won the game. The defense played horrible down the stretch, forcing punts on only 3 of San Fran's final 10 possessions. And yes, good ol K-Drop is back. Maybe it was the alcohol that was causing him to drop so many passes in his previous stint? And maybe now that he's (finally) sober, he'll show good hands? And maybe my boss will fire the two consultants who's fuck-ups I've been fixing all week and just give me the money he's been paying them. If Seattle can win this game, they should get both Engram and Branch back after next week's bye. Just in time to get their asses kicked by the Giants (a game I'll be at) in Week 5. Seahawks 23, Rams 20.

New Orleans (1-1) at Denver (2-0) -5.5
I guess we all know by now that I like Denver at home, and as much as I also like betting on the Saints, I’m going with the Broncos. New Orleans is a below sea level team built around Reggie Bush going to a high altitude climate. This game may be close for a half, but the thin air will wear down the Saints. Denver by a TD sounds about right
Denver 27 New Orleans 20

The Broncos could be a sleeper team this season. They have a decent defense, Cutler seems servicable, and they have their usual successful "system" running game. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled on offense with Marques Colston out and their defense looks pretty bad. Broncos 26, Saints 20.

Detroit (0-2) at San Francisco (1-1) -4.5
Wow. This week’s hands down SBS stinker pits two pretty hapless teams against each other. Detroit showed a little fight last week against the Packers by battling back from a 21 – 0 deficit to take a 25 – 24 lead, while San Francisco handed it to Seattle at Seattle. I’m a bit NFC North inclined, so I’m going with the Lions to win. Why? The Lions have enough talent. They just can’t seem to put it together. Besides, San Francisco reached their quota of wins last week
Detroit 27 San Francisco 24

Maybe this is me being delusional and hoping Seattle isn't really as bad as they looked last week.. but J.T. O'Sullivan showed some nice poise under pressure (he was sacked 8 times, and it probably should have been more like 11) and made some nice throws. Plus, factor in the revenge factor for Mike Martz, now the offensive coordinator in SF after being fired by Detroit. Maybe the Niners aren't as bad as people thought? Niners 27, Lions 20.

Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1) -5.5
It took all Indy had to beat the Vikings last week, but one thing was apparent: by the second half of that game Peyton Manning had found his rhythm again. This week, at home, he’ll have it going right from the start. Look for Indy to cruise.
Colts 31 Jags 20

I'll have to disagree on that one. The Jaguars always play the Colts tough, and Indy is still banged up enough to be not their usual selves. Plus Bob Sanders is out for 4-6 weeks, and he's the heart of that Indy D. I'll take the points, I think this spread is way too high. Colts 23, Jags 20.
Pittsburgh (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1) -3.5
Philly is coming off a tough loss at Dallas Monday night despite playing their hearts out…at least on offense. This week they go against arguably the best team in the AFC. The Steelers have played good solid D, and last week (in case you missed it) Big Ben completed 11-18 in 60 mph wind gusts. I like the Steelers this week. There’s too much stacked against Philly
Steelers 28 Eagles 24

Actually, I like the Eagles in this game. Westbrook is a nightmare for opposing defenses and McNabb looks like his old self. Plus Big Ben has a separated shoulder that nobody is talking about. Eagles 28, Steelers 24.

Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (1-0) -2.5
So Baltimore got a break with Ike rolling through Houston last week. This week they play a gritty Browns team who took a tough loss against Pittsburgh. I like the Browns, really, and it’s hard to imagine that team going to 0-3 but that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Joe Flacco looked like a young Ben Rothels… Big Ben two weeks ago as he lumbered around the field in the Raven’s win. Let’s go with the Ravens again. I’m betting that this Flacco kid’s got some magic in him
Baltimore 24 Cleveland 21

I don't have much to add here. Other than I'll take the points, but just barely.
Ravens 24, Browns 23.

Dallas (2-0) at Green Bay (2-0) +2.5
It’s hard for me to bet against the Pack, but I’m going to. Dallas showed me something last week with an astonishing vertical game. There’s no doubt that Terrell Owens can stretch a field, but Tony Romo’s timing to T.O. was impeccable. This is going to be a challenge for the Packer D, especially with starting safety Atari Bigby out (replaced by a pretty good VA Tech guy named Aaron Rouse) Conversely, watching Greg Jennings waiting downfield for an Aaron Rodgers bomb was enough to convince me they’re not quite there yet. Rodgers has been everything advertised: he’s cool, confident and talented. But this is a team sport and the Cowboys have the depth. I’ll keep hoping that the short week hurts them.
Dallas 37 Green Bay 27

Uh oh, looks like Samichlaus is trying to pull the good ol' "reverse jinx" move on this one! This should be a shootout, but the difference will be the Packers CBs. They'll eb able to get their hands on TO and rough him up a bit, and he hates dealing with that. It totally throws him off his game. Also, the Packers should have an advantage in the running game. How they're getting almost a field goal at home, I have no idea. I'll say it again: Tony Romo is overrated. Packers 33, Cowboys 26.

NY Jets (1-1) at San Diego (0-2) -8.5
It’s Brett the Jet on MNF and that means show time. San Diego is not an 0-2 team but there’s way too many points separating these two. Brett will keep it close enough to cover this shoot out, and maybe even close enough to win
Jets 37 San Diego 34

Yeah, that's way too many points. I'm still not sure how the heck the Jets didn't give the Pats a better game last week. Oh, and Tomlinson is banged up for the Chargers. Did I mention I don't trust Phillip Rivers? Chargers 27, Jets 23.

My Sunday

One thing you’ve got to hand to this global warming thing: the drier climate in the summer has kept my lawn relatively tame. Of course, the stronger-moister-more-intense storms that are making their way through the east coast have brought upon a grand late season rally for the lawn, and so today at 8:00 AM I was outside manning the mower for about the fourth time this season.

It was a good battle. I drained two tanks of gas and several phasers, and much like the Yangs the grass kept coming. OK, that’s a Star Trek reference: google “The Omega Glory”. However when the battle ended, Mrs. Samichlaus was proud that she could boast a freshly mowed lawn to go with her exhausted husband.

OK, now on to the Packers game.


The Packers looked real good today, then they looked real bad, and then Jon Kitna showed up and all of a sudden they looked real good again. This Packer team isn’t much different than last year’s team: once again they are the youngest team in the league, and at times they play like it. They came out like gangbusters, taking a 21-0lead and leaving the Lions looking baffled and befuddled. Aaron Rodgers was all farts and giggles on the sideline as halftime approached and I started thinking to myself “this is too easy”. Turns out I was right. The Lions scored 25 points… yes, there was a safety involved, and the Packers answered with a field goal. That put the score at an improbable 25 – 24 with 7:21 to go, and now I thought to myself “this is a good test for Aaron”.

Last week, Aaron Rodgers was like a silent assassin, cool and unflappable. BTW, I never noticed this before, but you spell assassin “ass” “ass” “in”. Go figure. Anyway, this week the silent assassin (I just love typing that word all of a sudden!) had to come from behind.

Just let it go.

Back on track. Rodgers drove the team quickly down field and after Brandon Jackson inexplicably left his feet to try to catch a third down pass, the Packer kicked a field goal putting them up by two. It was then that Jon Kitna showed up. An interception to Charles Woodson (Jacksons scores a TD on a 18 yard TD run), another interception to Woodson for six, and a final interception to Nick Collins for another six, put this game away.

Next week the Cowboys come to town. The Cowboys don’t drop passes. Their QB doesn’t throw interceptions, and gets to have sex with Jessica Simpson. Their star wide receiver actually plays well enough that no one talks about his potential anymore because he’s realized it. The Pack will have to play a perfect game to have a chance to win that one. Either that or drain a few phasers on the Cowboys who also like the Yangs will keep coming.

Week 2 Picks!

Happy Friday! Interesting first week. Lots of home teams won. And I hear there was an injury or two. Lots of favorites won and covered. Which means I did poorly. Samichlaus is off to a decent start though...

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 10-6
St.Ides: 7-9

Tennessee (1-0) at Cincinnati (0-1) -1.5
I missed big on both of these teams week one, while St. Ides correctly noted that Cincy had a lot of chaos on their team in another one of his winning predictions. Maybe it’s because of Vince Young’s injury, and maybe it’s because I’ve spent the week in Cincinnati, but I’m taking the Bengals at home. I think that despite the chaos, Cincinnati is just the better team here.
Cincinnati 24 Tennessee 21

The Tennesee defense looked pretty awesome last week against the Jaguars. What the hell happened to Carson Palmer? Wasn't he once considered like a Top 5 QB in the league? Seems he's never been the same since that knee injury he suffered against the Steelers in the playoffs. The Vince Young story this week is a pretty odd one, and his time with the Titans could be running out. Their QB this week? Kerry "Tom" Collins. The Titans run more than pass anyways, so I'm going to stick with them. Titans 20, Bengals 17.

Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1) -3.5
So I was right about the Raiders: Javon Walker was the great player from several years ago who the Raiders went and got in the off season, and although he gets his first start this week, it’s not nearly enough to make a difference. What a friggin ass whopin’ Denver laid out on them last Monday. It’s going to be another lost season for Al Davis, whose fans have taken to wearing tee shirts that read “Keep Kiffin, Fire Al”. Kansas City and Damon Huard kept it close against the Patriots last week, and should win easy at Arrowhead.
Chiefs 27 Raiders 13

Are the Chiefs better than we thought, hanging in there with the shell-shocked Pats last week? And the Raiders worse than we thought, getting blown out by the Broncos? Who knows. Who really cares. The Chiefs are pretty tough at home though. And the Raiders just might stink. Chiefs 24, Raiders 17.

New Orleans (1-0) at Washington (0-1) -0.5
The Washington Redskins are a poorly coached football team. Time after time last week when they needed x amount of yards for a first down, the play call was for a route that was x – 4 yards in length. Folks, that’s just poor coaching. At home this week will give the team a boost but until I see them play a well coached game I’m going against them. New Orleans is young and talented, and should get a road win.
New Orleans 20 Washington 17

I have to agree that former Seahawk legend Jim Zorn looked like a deer in headlights. Did I mention what a huge jump it is from QB coach to Head Coach? Not to mention that QB Jason Campbell might not be the best QB for the West Coast Offense. Anyways, I'll take the Saints. Saints 23, Skins 13.

NY Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1) +8.5
Another beat down is in the making for the Rams, who have no offense, no defense, and no head coach (Scott Linehan? Wtf?). The only thing going for the Rams is that god awful stadium they play in, which is loud and disruptive. I don’t think this will affect the Giants who don’t exactly run a precision offense (Run to Jacobs, run to Jacobs, throw to Burris). Meanwhile the Giants D is good enough to shut anyone down, and I’m starting to think that they’re really building something special in New Jersey.
Giants 23 Rams 13

While I'm not quite sold on the Giants this year (their offense did look pretty bad in the second half last week), the Rams are brutal. Thankfully, they're in the NFC West! Giants 23, Rams 10.

Buffalo (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1) -5.5
I’ve got to say, I was totally blindsided by the Bills last week until St. Ides pointed out that 14 of their points came off a fake field goal and a fumble recovery. This week won’t be so forgiving against the Jags on the road. After watching the films of last week’s games (ahem), I realized that it took a stellar effort from the Tennessee Titan’s D to win against Jacksonville. This week the Jags take it to the Bills by a TD.
Jacksonville 27 Buffalo 20

Don't forget another 7 points came on a punt return. So basically the Seattle special teams gave up 21 of the 34 points. The Jags have lost their two starting guards. Which means former Jags star Marcus Stroud is going to be in their backfield all day long. And, dare I say, is David Garrard finally coming down to earth? He threw two picks last week, and he had something like 5 all of last season. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Bills pull off the minor upset. Bills 24, Jags 23.

Green Bay (1-0) at Detroit (0-1) +3.5
In many ways Green Bay looked like a dominant team on Monday night against the Vikqueens. Aaron Rodgers was poised and unflappable, made difficult throws and smart decisions, and looked like a worthy successor to the great Brett Favre. In other ways they looked sloppy. Penalties for illegal formations, o-linemen downfield, pass interference calls. It all made for a closer score than it should have been. The Lions have an improved receiving corp: I mean it’s the same guys, but they are all a year better. If Charles Woodson doesn’t play, this could be a problem. Last year, the Pack had no problems guarding Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, and I’m betting that this year won’t be much different.
Packers 31 Lions 17

That offensive lineman downfield call was killer. The announcers made a good point though, it seemed like it wasn't really their fault as Rodgers and the WR made a hot read and changed the play at the line. The Lions must be pretty embarassed getting beaten by a rookie QB in his first game no a dreadful team. It seems their run defense is pretty horrible. Packers 27, Lions 20.


Indianapolis (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1) +1.5
Question: which team is more likely to start the season 0-2: the Colts or the Vikings? That’s too easy. So why is this game only separated by 1.5? I think that Peyton Manning and the rest of Indy looked a bit shell shocked against the Bears, with Manning playing like a guy who hadn’t practiced much in the preseason. Oh right, he didn’t. With another week of practice under their belts the Colts shouldn’t have too much trouble against the Vikings, who have a good running game, a good D line and not much else.
Colts 31 Vikings 20

The Colts Oline is actually a bit depleted with injuries and losses to free agency. And the Vikings defensive line is pretty good. Still, Tavaris Jackson has Vikings fans dreaming about the glory days of Daunte Culpepper. It's a shame Culpepper was never the same player again after that nasty knee injury. A lot of people picked both this teams to be easy playoff teams. One will be 0-2 and start to panic. Yep, that sounds like a typical Vikings season. Colts 28, Vikings 20.

Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0) -3.5
If the Bills were surprising last week, the Bears were downright astonishing. Beating Indy in Indy without an offense is in no uncertain terms flabbergasting. If they can do to Indy, they can do it to the Panthers who by the way also made me look bad last week. If the over under is 39 or above, take the under. Oh and take the Bears.
Bears 20 Panthers 17

Yeah, I was pretty shocked by the Bears too. But it's only a matter of time before Kyle Orton kills them. And I think that time is now. The Panthers must be feeling pretty good about beating the Super Bowl Contender Chargers in San Diego without Steve Smith. I think they'll bring the Bears back down to reality. Panthers 20, Bears 13.

Atlanta (1-0) at Tampa Bay (0-1) -8.5
Matt Ryan showed me something last week. A good rookie QB out of Boston College, he (like A-Rodg) showed a lot of poise in Atlanta’s win. This week against a Tampa D won’t be so easy. Look for Jon Gruden to play a deceptive D that will screw with the kid’s head. Brian Greise gets the nod at QB for Tampa, replacing the injured Jeff Garcia who is out with a torn sphincter.
Tampa 20 Atlanta 13

Oh man, poor Garcia can't have a week go by without a joke. Word out of Tampa is actually that him and Gruden are on the outs. Garcia says he's healthy enough to practice, Gruden says he isn't. I don't have a whole lot of faith in Griese. I'll take the points, just cause that's a lot. Bucs 23, Falcons 17.

San Francisco (0-1) at Seattle (0-1) -7.5
Last week should have been a wake-up call for the disappointing Seahawks, and there’s nothing like the Niners on your home field to get you back on track. The lightening quick Seahawk D should handle Frank Gore with ease, and beyond Frank Gore what can San Francisco throw at you? Seattle is a very good team that should win the division. This week they’ll be out to make a statement.
Seattle 37 San Francisco 10

Seattle injury update: Starting WR Nate Burlseon? Out for the season. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram? Still a few weeks away. #4 WR Ben Obomanu? Out for the season. Seattle is down to their 5th and 6th options at WR. It's so bad that backup QB Seneca Wallace will likely start at WR. The next two? Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne. Who? Exactly. Also out for the season, starting RG Robb Sims. And starting RB Mo Morris is out 2-4 weeks. So yeah, their offense is in shambles. Like Samichlaus said, nothing like the Niners at home to get you back on track. The Seattle defense really only gave up 20 of the 34 points last week, and another TD was on a short field thanks to a fumbled kickoff. They're much better at home with the noise behind them. Still, I don't see how Hasselbeck is going to get ANY passing game going with no WRs. No passing game means 8 in the box means no running game. The week 4 bye week can't come soon enough for this injury ravaged team. Niners 16, Seahawks 10.

New England (1-0) at NY Jets (1-0) -1.5
The Jets are licking their chops over this one as former high school standout Matt Cassel takes the field against Broadway Brett and his new “Gang Green”. But hold on folks: is that the same New England D out there? Is that Randy Moss still catching passes? Is Lawrence Maroney still running the ball? I absolutely agree that Tom Brady is the absolute difference maker on this team, and his loss is tremendous. But don’t count this team out. Brady was the difference between 16 – 0 and say 12 – 4. Have the Jets done enough in the off season to narrow that gap? Remember: Brett’s still learning the O. I like the Pats in a close game
New England 24 New York 23

It's almost a shame we'll miss out on two Favre-Brady shootouts this season. But I agree with my colleague completely. The only thing I'll add is that the Pats pass defense is a bit suspect, and that might bite them in the heiney against a wiley vet like Favre. Patriots 24, Jets 23.

Miami (0-1) at Arizona (1-0) -6.5
Miami goes on the road against Arizona, and although the Dolphins showed they can keep a game close they haven’t showed they can win. Arizona showed they could win… against the Niners. My ultimate fantasy team of Samichlaus, St. Ides, Mrs. Samichlaus, Anonymous, and a few guys St. Ides and I used to work with could match up well against the Niners. I’ll go with the Dolphins and the points.
Arizona 24 Miami 20

I'm going to take the points too. Could this finally be the Cardinals year though? Their defense isn't bad, and they have two awesome receivers. You got to think that at some point a defense is going to catch up to Kurt Warner and just clobber him though. Maybe Jason Taylor does that this week. Oh wait, they traded him. Nevermind. Warner lives to see another week. Cardinals 20, Dolphins 16.

San Diego (0-1) at Denver (1-0) +1.5
Denver looked reeeaalll good last week, and I have to be honest here: I have no idea what went on with San Diego other than it says here they lost. I’ll go with Denver at home because they’re real good at home.
Denver 27 San Diego 20

Wouldn't it be great if both the Chargers and Colts started 0-2? I'm not quite sold on the Broncos, but the home field advantage is decent and I don't like the Chargers. Broncos 23, Chargers 20.

Baltimore (1-0) at Houston (0-1) -4.5
So the Joe Flacco era started with a bang huh? It just goes to show you: I don’t know what it goes to show. I’m also not sure what affect Hurricane Ike is going to have on that game, but I hear that Houston officials are frantically painting over the picture of Tina Turner that covers the Astrodome. With that non factual and completely inaccurate joke out of the way, I’ll take the Ravens and the points:
Houston 20 Baltimore 17

Hahah. I think they've officially moved this game to Monday Night. But it won't be on DirecTV because of the contract between ESPN and the league, they can't compete on another channel. There's some push to get ESPN to allow it anyways, being that a natural disaster is the cause of the move, but we'll see. Anyways... I liked the Texas to start the year... Now? Not so much. I'll take the points. Texans 17, Ravens 16.

Pittsburgh (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1) +5.5
There’s some sort of a rivalry between these two cities I hear. Pittsburgh dominated last week. Big Ben was lights out and “Fast” Willie Parker was, well, fast. Meanwhile Cleveland got the shit kicked out of them at Dallas. I’m going to bet that Pittsburgh can win by a TD on the road.
Pittsburgh 24 Cleveland 17

As much as I hate to admit it, the Steelers might be the favorite in the AFC now that Brady's down. Poor Dereck Anderson could be hearing the footsteps of Brady Quinn after a few more bad performances. Steelers 30, Browns 20.

Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0) -6.5
Philadelphia and Dallas both played well in their openers and a healthy Donovan McNabb will keep this game close. I don’t know about Dallas: maybe they are as good as all the hype. Maybe Wade Phillips is really the right coach for that team. I think the Cowboys win, but the Eagles keep it under a TD
Dallas 31 Philly 27

I really don't think the Cowboys are as good as all the hype. Plus Marion Barber is banged up a bit. Philly has a pretty decent defense and could possibly maybe shut down the Dallas passing attack. That's a lot of points for a divisional rivalry. Eagles 24, Cowboys 23.

Annnnddddd... We're Back! Week One Predictions!

Don't get all emotional and crap, but we're back! We'll spare you a long intro, and cut right to the chase.

Washington at NY Giants -3.5
Well , we screwed the pooch on this one, but I can honestly say that it is 7:04 PM on Thursday, I’m sitting at a kiosk at O’Hare and I have no idea about this game. So with that said, I would have taken the Giants and the points: Giants 27 Skins 10 (I looovvee the under)

Yeah, I'm writing this on Friday morning, but I would have taken the Giants too. I'll award a win on this one as a "Welcome Back SBS!" present to both of us! The Giants didn't look great, but poor Seattle great Jim Zorn looked a bit overwhelmed in his first game as a head coach. It's a pretty big jump from QB Coach to Head Coach.

St. Louis at Philadelphia -7.5
OK, here we go for real. St. Louis is a fragment of the team it once was, and besides: they were never real good on the road anyways. Philly is a hungry team, and with the home goon advantage they win this one with ease. To quote Bill Parcells “Who ever named this the city of brotherly love ain’t never been here. I’ll tell you what it is, it’s a fucking banana republic.”
Philly 31 St Louis 20

I'm going to have to agree on this one. Although the Rams were totally ravaged by injuries last year and they've added some good young players to their defensive line, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are getting up there in years. A lot of people like the Eagles to come back strong this year. Eagles 27, Rams 16.

Seattle at Buffalo -0.5
Why is this game at only half a point? Do the oddsmakers have that little faith in Seattle? I mean Christ, don’t they read this blog? Oh right, we haven’t been blogging lately. I’ve been threatening for years that I was going to start posting St. Ides’s emails. You readers would love them. They’re short, concise, well written and intelligent. In other words nothing like our posts. I know the Bills are tough at home, but I just don’t see it being this close. Tell you what: I’ll give the odds makers their props. Seattle wins and covers
Seattle 24 Buffalo 21

There's a prevailing thought that Seattle is awful on the road in 1pm ET starts. Their record the past two years? 5-4. And two of those losses were last year to Carolina and Atlanta with the division wrapped up and second stringers mostly playing. Buffalo's Pro Bowl LT is still holding out, and they just lost one of their starting LBs for the year. (No clue if he was any good, but he was a starter.) The Seattle running game has been totally revamped, the most important part being new offensive line coach Mike Solari. His previous gig? Chiefs offensive coordinator. Okay, bad example. But before that he was the KC offensive line coach, and his lines blew open gaping holes for the likes of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. He was so good, they gave him the promotion to O-Coordinator. Where he flamed out, and was fired after one year. But the talent around him last year pretty much sucked. Anyways, yeah, Seattle WILL have a solid running game this year, bank it. Oh and Hasselbeck is 5-2 on opening day, including last year at Tampa Bay in a 1pm start against a team that made the playoffs.
Seattle 23, Buffalo 10.

NY Jets at Miami +3.5
Brett the Jet. I still can’t get used to it. I swear I’m going to drive up to Green Bay one evening and toilet paper Ted Thompson’s house. Fucking ass wipe. And yes, don’t worry, I’ll be doing a blog on the whole Favre thing soon so just be patient. Not sure if it’s going to happen, but my father in law may be coming over Sunday to watch this one. Readers of our blog know that he’s a die-hard Dolphins fan, so I thought he’d might like to watch his boys start the season right where they left off: losing. Honestly I think the ‘Fins are going to have a better season than last year, and that prediction has nothing to do with Dad’s ample gun collection. But the Jets and my quarterback are going to do some special things. Just watch.
Jets 31 Dolphins 24

I'm not quite sold on the Jets just yet. Their WR depth is not nearly as good as Green Bay. Their running game and defense probably isn't as good either. Plus, don't discount the revenge factor for Chad Pennington, who will be starting for the Fins. Considering the shitty records of both these teams last year, this could be one of the best games of the weekend. I'll take the home dog. Dolphins 27, Jets 26.

Kansas City at New England -16.5
This one almost isn’t fair. St. Ides’s favorite head coach Herm Edwards draws a tough matchup while New England is primed for another year of dominance. That’s a very good football team playing a pretty bad one. The only thing is (here we go) that point spread. How many times last year did I take the points against New England and get burned. I’ll tell you what: Brady hasn’t thrown a pass in pre-season and that’s got to cost him something. I think K.C. will keep it close for a half but will eventually lose. The question is how close? I’m going to say close enough to cover two TD’s.
New England 27 Kansas City 13

I'm taking the Pats and the points. I don't think the Chiefs have 13 points in them. In fact, I'm going to call a shutout on this one. Patriots 23, Chiefs 0.

Detroit at Atlanta +2.5
Wowsers. Week one SBS Stinker is a candidate for stinker of the year. Thank God we’re getting it out of the way quick. Detroit is a terrible team and Atlanta is still dealing with the curse of Vick. I’ll give ‘em the home team dog rule here.
Atlanta 20 Detroit 17

Yeah, this game blows. The only intrigue here (and I'm grasping at straws) is the debut at QB for rookie Matt Ryan. Oh, and I read an interesting tidbit recently about Jon Kitna. I forget where and what the exact details are, but apparently if he throws for 4,000 yards this season (something most people expect him to do), he'll be in something like the top 15 all-time QBs as far as yardage goes. Jon Frickin Kitna. Somehow I don't think that automatically punches his ticket to Dayton. I'll actually take the Lions though. Lions 24, Falcons 20.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans -3.5
New Orleans the city dodged a close one last week, but New Orleans the team won’t be so lucky. I’m not sure why I like Tampa: maybe because I buy into all the Gruden hype, or maybe it’s because he’s really a better head coach, or maybe it’s because I never bought into the Reggie Bush hype. Fuck if I know, I really haven’t followed either of these teams in the off season. I couldn’t even tell you who their QB’s are… wait, isn’t Jeff Garcia on Tampa Bay? OK, I changed my mind.
New Orleans 28 Tampa Bay 17

You know, for all the jokes we make about Garcia, he actually has a decent track record. But yeah, I like the Saints in this one too. Saints 24, Bucs 17.

Cincinnati at Baltimore +1.5
Here are two more teams I know very little about. Honestly I just wish my aircraft would show up so I can wrap these up and finish them in the morning. OK… the Ravens are starting a rookie QB named Joe Flaco (or Flacco? I’m too lazy to look it up). That’s a bad thing (the rookie, not my lazyness). As mediocre as these two teams are I won’t bet on a rookie QB in his first NFL start. Unless his name was Favre, but that was a long time ago. Forget what I said earlier about the home dog.
Bengals 20 Baltimore 17

It's Flacco. And if you're not going to bet on a rookie QB in his first NFL start, you better go back and change your Falcons pick. Did you see the nonsense about Chad Johnson officially and legally changing his last name to "Ocho Cinco" and that will be on the back of his jersey? Too bad T.J. Whosyourmomma is the bigger receiving threat at this point. Anyways, even with "offensive genius" Brian Billick out of Baltimore, their offense will suck and their defense isn't getting any younger. And I believe Ed Reed is out with an injury. I'll take Cinci and a slightly rejuvenated Carson Palmer. Bengals 23, Ravens 13.

Jacksonville at Tennessee +2.5
I watched Tennessee’s first team play Green Bay’s scrubs in their last preseason game and almost lose. The Packers second team D held the Titans to three field goals in three quarters and you know what? Vince Young was awful. Like Vick awful. He could run his ass off, but ask him to make an accurate throw and chances are he couldn’t do it. I left that game thinking “no way do I bet on this team week one”.
Jags 24 Titans 20

I'm not sold at all on Vince Young. But then again, I'm not sold on David Garrad either. The Titans defense is actually somewhat solid, so I'll say this one stays pretty low scoring, and I'll take the points. A lot of "experts" are predicting huge things for the Jaguars this year, some even saying they're a Super Bowl contender. Which means they'll probably suck. Jaguars 17, Titans 16.

Houston at Pittsburgh -6.5
The Steelers at home and healthy should have it easy against the constantly building Texans. I like Matt Shaub, the UVA star turned Texans QB but he’s got a long way to go. His team just doesn’t have the talent to match up with a gritty Pittsburgh squad.
Steelers 24 Texans 13

I'm going to take the points. The Texans D is starting to show some signs of being respectable. And I think the Steelers might just take them a bit lightly. I think the Steelers coach could be in for some rough times if Pittsburgh gets off to a slow start this season. Steelers 23, Texans 21.

Carolina at San Diego -8.5
Another tough first week draw as an east coast team heads west against a talented Charger team. The Chargers started slow last season and it cost them. Don’t think for a minute they’ll make the same mistake of complacency twice. 8.5 points may seem a lot against a John Fox defense, but really Fox isn’t such a defensive mastermind. Defense is easy when you’ve got Michael Strahan in his prime.
Bolts 27 Cats 17

The more I see them, the more I dislike the Chargers, mostly because of the attitudes of Tomlinson, Rivers, and Merriman. Merriman is playing despite two torn ligaments in his knee, against the advice of every doctor he's visited. Maybe this game is worth watching just to see if his lower leg become completely detached. Chargers 23, Panthers 10.

Dallas at Cleveland +5.5
Has anyone been watching “Hard Knocks” on HBO with the Cowboys? It’s been really cool seeing T.O. and Romo and all the rest of America’s team frolic through a Wade Phillips training camp. To the Cowboys, it’s Super Bowl or bust this year, and as long as Tony Romo has Terrell Owens to throw the ball to the Cowboys will win games in spite of themselves. This game will be close. I’m going to take the Cowboys to win but not cover. Don’t be surprised if Cleveland and Derek Anderson win it outright
Cowboys 23 Browns 20

Sadly, I don't have HBO. I look forward to a full season of Cowboy and Romo hype, only to watch them collapse in their first playoff game yet again. I have Jason Witten on my fantasy team, so I can cheer for him at least. Slight tangent: Seattle will be in Dallas this year for the Thanksgiving game. Hopefully the game has big NFC implications at that point. Cowboys 27, Browns 23.

Arizona at San Francisco +2.5
Uggh.
Arizona 20 San Francisco 17

I'll offer slightly more: Kurt Warner is starting at QB for the Cardinals, and Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator in San Fran. Martz tries to make J.T. O'Sullivan (no, that's not the seedy Irish bar that serves greasy bar food on Main Street) his next Kurt Warner. The Niners just don't have the personnel to make Martz's offense work. In other words, they have almost no talent. Cardinals 27, Niners 17.

Chicago at Indianapolis -9.5
I’ve gained a new respect for Bears fans since I’ve been working in Chicago. One of them said to me the other day “Just once in my life, before I die, I want to see a real quarterback play for the Bears. Fucking Sid Luckman was it”. Luckman played in the 1940s I think. Meanwhile Indy, like New England hasn’t practiced with their starting quarterback. However Indy, like New England, has a god-like QB and Indy, unlike New England, doesn’t have to cover two TDs.
Indy 27 Chi-town 13

Yeah, I'll take the Colts at home. How long before the Bears go from Kyle Orton back to Rex Grossman? Over/under is Week 4.
Colts 24, Bears 9.

Minnesota at Green Bay -2.5
Where to begin? A young Packer team with an inexperienced and fragile quarterback; several starters hurt; A Viking team that remembers the 34 – 0 demolition they took the last time the teams played; a healthy Adrian Peterson. This game smells like an upset in the making, but here’s how the Pack wins: play 8 in the box and dare Vikings QB Tavaras Jackson to beat you with his arm. He can’t. The Packers are a talented team, and should be able to overcome all the obstacles their GM has placed before them. Packers win one for A-Rodg…
Packers 30 Vikings 24

That's pretty much how I see it too. Throw in that Pro Bowl LT Brian McKinnie is suspended the first four games for the Vikes, and Green Bay ought to get decent penetration. I'm ripping this off from somewhere, and I don't remember where, but considering the MNF stage, the replacing Favre angle, and a divisional opponent, Aaron Rodgers has more pressure on him than any American since JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Good one. I don't see the Vikings scoring 20. Packers 27, Vikings 17.

Denver at Oakland +2.5
I don’t know what Oakland did to improve during the off season but if I know Al Davis he probably signed some over the hill veterans who made a big play or two 7-12 years ago.
Denver 24 Oakland 20

Well, they drafted Darren McFadden, who some are hyping as this year's Adrian Peterson. And they signed Jevon Walker, who's part headcase and part broken kneees. This rivalry ain't what it used to be. Broncos 20, Raiders 17.

A little Friday sports

Enough with the crickets! The only crickets I've heard around here was when I was blogging my ass off during the Packers Giants game. Did any of our loyal readers choose to participate? chirp * chirp * chirp * chirp * OK, enough about that. Let talk a little about the game from a Packers fan's perspective...


As I re-read my game day blog, it was obvious what was transpiring. The theme that carried through the posts was "The Packers need to get started, but man the Giants are playing well", and to quote an earlier post: simply put, the better team won. The Giants were absolutely flying to the ball, while the Packers played flat. The cold seemed to affect Favre more than Eli Manning, who by the way had a great game. I wonder if Favre's age is catching up to him? I saw a film of the last interception: Favre had Jennings open downfield, Grant open for a short first down and Lee open over the middle. He chose to to Driver, who was tigtly covered, and who out of his four choices was the worst possible choice.

Now that some time has passed and the bitterness of the defeat has worn off, I can honestly say that I'm already looking forward to next season, and its all because of my wife...

Towards the end of the game, when we both new the Packers were going to lose, Mrs. Samichlaus said the following: "It's better if they lose". I really didn't get that at first but she explained further.

"They're a young team. They're not ready. That's obvious! If they win this game, they'll go to the Super Bowl and lose to New England. Then they'll say "We were supposed to lose" and that would be the end of it. But losing at home to the Giants? This is going to stick with them all through the offseason. And next year, they're going to be hungry."

What really amazed me was that she came up with that while the game was on. And damn if it didn't make perfect sense.

In the end I was still depressed with the Packers loss. It took me a few days to get over it, and it helped that I've been inundated on my project at work. But what helped the most was Mrs. Samichlaus's words. And not just the words I mentioned above, but the words she said when the game was over...

"You know", she said, "If he comes back and plays one more year, I think we should go see him"

I love my wife!

That's enough

This game is waaaaayyyyyyy too good. I'm signing off for the night, and will be blogging more this week (win or lose).

Packers score!

Finally, we get a huge call to keep a drive alive. I didn't see Sam Madison throw Vernon Morency to the ground, but judging by the reactions on both sides, it was a good call. Giants got a good runback so here we go again

More good play from the Giants...

...and an embarrasing showing from the Packer D. Four penalties, including two offsides. The Packers are going to need to adjust their D and get Al Harris some help. Their Offense needs to answer the Giants with an impressive drive of their own.

Who's the home team?

The Giants have gotten 2 huge calls to keep the drive alive. Al Harris can't guard Burress. The Giants need to keep going to Burress, not that I want to give them advice or anything. Giants are pounding the ball, and the Packers D line is starting to falter.