Hi kids, Samichlaus here. As you know this is my busy season: the elves and I are getting the sled all filled with beer and pretzels to bring to all the good little children on Christmas morning. So with that said, I’m going to do these quick and dirty… but you can’t say that Ol’ Samichlaus stiffed ya!.
Washington (3-7) at Philadelphia (6-4) -9.5
The Eagles are one of the teams that currently holds a wild card slot (Green Bay is the other), so look for them to play hard and dominant football against their division rival. I like them at home with the points. Eagles 30 Redskins 13
Tampa Bay (1-9) at Atlanta (5-5) -11.5
Tampa has reverted back to their losing ways, and that’s because the league has a little bit of film to study of Josh Freeman. Atlanta has not lost at home, but has definitely become mediocre. 11.5 is a lot, but I’ll bite. Atlanta wins and covers. Falcons 37 Bucs 20
Seattle (3-7) at St. Louis (1-9) +3.5
Two bad teams and one home dog. Although Seattle is the better team, I’ll take the Rams. Kyle Boller gets the nod for the injured Mark Bulger, but really this might be an upgrade. St Louis 20 Seattle 17
Cleveland (1-9) at Cincinnati (7-3) -13.5
The Bengals got caught napping against the Raiders last week and it cost them. They got a little full of themselves and the end result was a loss. Meanwhile the Browns played their hearts out against the Lions but still lost. I don’t think Cinci lets that happen twice, but I’ll take the points. Cincinnati 34 Cleveland 24
Miami (5-5) at Buffalo (3-7) +3.5
Miami has started to come together, in part thanks to the rejuvenated Rickey Williams who had a career game last week. Now granted we’re taking a warm weather team and moving them to the cold, but the Fins are used to it, and they always play the Pats and Jets tough. I’ll take them and give the points: Miami 24 Buffalo 17
Indianapolis (10-0) at Houston (5-4) +3.5
A lot of people like Houston this week, and I keep waiting for the Colts to lose. But mama didn’t raise no dummies. Take the Colts. Indy 34 Houston 30
Carolina (4-6) at NY Jets (4-6) -3.5
So now I hear Rex Ryan is personally going to nurture Mark Sanchez? Gol! I do not want to see pictures of that. In fact, please get that image of Sanchez suckling one of Ryan’s manboobs out of my head. For the love of Pete… Jets 27 Panther 20
Jacksonville (6-4) at San Francisco (4-6) -3.5
After watching San Francisco against Green Bay, I’ve learned that you can’t ever count them out. I also learned that they aren’t as good as I thought they were. Jacksonville keeps winning close games, so why should this week be any different? Jags 24 Niners 23
Kansas City (3-7) at San Diego (7-3) -13.5
After a huge, huge win against the Stealers, KC takes it on the road… and loses soundly to the Bolts. More on the Pittsburgh fiasco in a bit. Samichlaus says “Two TD’s are no problem”. Chargers 37 Chiefs 13
Arizona (7-3) at Tennessee (4-6) -2.5
I love what’s happening in Tennessee, and I’m going to ride them one more week. Sure the Cardinals are a good team, better than I thought, but momentum favors the Titans. Tennessee 27 Arizona 24
Chicago (4-6) at Minnesota (9-1) -10.5
Well, I can’t do that “Jay Cutler looks more like Rick Cutler” joke because (a) I’ve already done it and (b) St. Ides is the only one who gets it. You had to know Rick. Has anyone looked at Favre’s numbers lately? The guy’s a freak! Vikings 37 Bears 13
Pittsburgh (6-4) at Baltimore (5-5) -2.5
Stick a fork in the Stealers, they’re done. Big Ben is doubtful due to a concussion but honestly who would know the difference? What KC did to them last week was beyond fathomable. Ravens 30 Stealers 13
New England (7-3) at New Orleans (10-0) -2.5
Damn! Kudos to the NFL schedule maker for bringing us this gem. I have to say, I’ll be rooting for the Pats but I’m picking the Saints. Once again, until someone proves me wrong… Saints 30 Patriots 27
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Gobble Gobble!
Greetings from your favorite sports blogging jive turkeys, and yes I do that line every year at Thanksgiving. Consider it a holiday tradition, like stuffing or the Lions losing a football game. Anyway, we’re all set here at the Samichlaus household. The in-laws will be here and all the provisions have been secured. Dinner is set for 4:00 sharp, which should give me plenty of time to watch the Packers gobble up the Lions…
Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8) +10.5
Despite losing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman for the season, the Pack should have no trouble beating Detroit with ease on Thursday. Matthew Stafford is doubtful, leaving QB duties to Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper was never a good QB: whatever success he had was gained by throwing the ball to Randy Moss and Chris Carter. This will be a good break-in game for the Packers new secondary alignment, getting them ready for the Ravens a week from Monday. In addition, the Pack has begun to run the ball a lot better. Last week against a real good run defense Ryan Grant had a field day, amassing 129 yards on 21 carries. In fact, ever since Samichlaus had his come to Jesus tweetfest with Nick Barnett, the Packers have improved all facets of their game. Like my dad used to say to me “Every once and a while you need the old man to kick your ass”. It’s OK Nick, you can thank me after the season. One final note: as I was researching this game, I came across this on the Lions web site: “Conference Call Transcript with Packers Head Coach Brian McCarthy”. Brian McCarthy? Well, I guess they could have called him this guy, I mean what’s the difference between one wooden dummy and another? Packers 34 Lions 20
I was going to say, that's two pretty important pieces of the defense going down. Ouch. And that's pretty frickin embarassing that the Lions official website got the head coach's name wrong. Are we sure Matt Millen isn't still working for Detriot behind the scenes? For a split second, I thought to myself "You know, wouldn't it be interesting of Culpepper turned back the clock like 10 years and wound up lighting up the banged up Packers secondary?" Then I came to my senses. Packers 31, Lions 17.
Oakland (3-7) at Dallas (7-3) -13.5
Cowboys fans: enjoy this game. December is a week away, and that means it’s time for the annual Tony Romo meltdown. This year’s meltdown will be titled “Jessica’s Revenge”, since those dumb ass Texans won’t be able to blame their Quarterback’s woes on the strange he happens to be getting. Unless of course he’s been dating a Kardashian and I don’t know it? I’ve got to hand it to Romo. For a guy from Wisconsin he actually gets to have intercourse with some fairly high profile poon tang. And that’s meant with no disrespect to Wisconsin, a state that all of our readers know Ol’ Samichlaus holds near and dear to his heart… especially the clogged arteries around my heart. But seriously, you’d never hear those chicks on “Sex and the City” pining over Mohitos saying “Oh, I wish I could meet a nice guy from Sheboygan”, or “So Carrie, are you and Horst getting together tonight?” Truly their loss: I’m sure Horst is a real nice fella, you betcha. But even those guys from “Weezer” probably wind up bedding down with an occasional frau. Anyway, I like the Cowboys to dominate. Dallas 37 Oakland 10
The only thing worse than having to suffer through the Cowboys every Thanksgiving is having to suffer through them with my obnoxious Cowboy-fan uncle talking about how great they are. Thankfully last season when they tatered the Seahawks, we were at my in-laws, so I was spared. This year, in our "rotating holiday appearance" schedule, we'll be at my cousin's house, and I'll be subjected to that uncle. I can only hope the Raiders shock and surprise them. And you know what, now that they've finally benched Jamarcus Russell, they've shown some signs of life. Sort of how the Titans have responded to Vince Young. I'm taking the points, and I think Romo (doesn't he have an injured pinkie or something too?) starts his December swoon a little early. Cowboys 23, Raiders 20.
NY Giants (6-4) at Denver (6-4) +6.5
This is the second most interesting game of the week, behind the Monday nighter in New Orleans. Right now neither of these teams are very good. The Giants tried their best to blow the game last week, squandering a 14 point 4th quarter lead to Atlanta. And what can I say about Denver, who lost to the Redskins and got thoroughly whooped by the Chargers. Denver has two things going for them this week: they are at home, and they get Kyle Orton back. Now, make no mistake about it: I think the Giants will win this game. But I also think Denver makes it close enough to keep it interesting. Lately the Giants D hasn’t been able to stop anyone, and that trend is going to continue against the Broncos. Take Denver and the points, and if you have either Manning or Orton on your fantasy team, play them. It’s going to be a wild west shoot out…. Giants 37 Broncos 34
Denver at home getting that many points against a Giants team that's struggled looks too good to pass up. So good, in fact, that something is fishy. Vegas is BEGGING people to take the Broncos in this game. Well, I'm not falling for it. It's been a crazy season for Denver so far, and only promises to continue to be. As I may have mentioned before, Seattle holds Denver's 2010 1st round draft pick. Going into this season, expectations for Denver were low.. Then they rattled off 6 wins to open the season, and it looked like that draft pick wouldn't nearly be as valuable as it had seemed before the season. Now? With every passing debacle, that pick edges closer and closer to becoming a top 10 pick. It's entirely possible that Seattle will hold two picks in the top 10 next year, in what is widely considered a very strong draft. I'll be watching Denver very carefully, but I think we're starting to see why the expectations were so low for them before the season. Eli has a field day yo. Giants 31, Broncos 23.
Green Bay (6-4) at Detroit (2-8) +10.5
Despite losing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman for the season, the Pack should have no trouble beating Detroit with ease on Thursday. Matthew Stafford is doubtful, leaving QB duties to Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper was never a good QB: whatever success he had was gained by throwing the ball to Randy Moss and Chris Carter. This will be a good break-in game for the Packers new secondary alignment, getting them ready for the Ravens a week from Monday. In addition, the Pack has begun to run the ball a lot better. Last week against a real good run defense Ryan Grant had a field day, amassing 129 yards on 21 carries. In fact, ever since Samichlaus had his come to Jesus tweetfest with Nick Barnett, the Packers have improved all facets of their game. Like my dad used to say to me “Every once and a while you need the old man to kick your ass”. It’s OK Nick, you can thank me after the season. One final note: as I was researching this game, I came across this on the Lions web site: “Conference Call Transcript with Packers Head Coach Brian McCarthy”. Brian McCarthy? Well, I guess they could have called him this guy, I mean what’s the difference between one wooden dummy and another? Packers 34 Lions 20
I was going to say, that's two pretty important pieces of the defense going down. Ouch. And that's pretty frickin embarassing that the Lions official website got the head coach's name wrong. Are we sure Matt Millen isn't still working for Detriot behind the scenes? For a split second, I thought to myself "You know, wouldn't it be interesting of Culpepper turned back the clock like 10 years and wound up lighting up the banged up Packers secondary?" Then I came to my senses. Packers 31, Lions 17.
Oakland (3-7) at Dallas (7-3) -13.5
Cowboys fans: enjoy this game. December is a week away, and that means it’s time for the annual Tony Romo meltdown. This year’s meltdown will be titled “Jessica’s Revenge”, since those dumb ass Texans won’t be able to blame their Quarterback’s woes on the strange he happens to be getting. Unless of course he’s been dating a Kardashian and I don’t know it? I’ve got to hand it to Romo. For a guy from Wisconsin he actually gets to have intercourse with some fairly high profile poon tang. And that’s meant with no disrespect to Wisconsin, a state that all of our readers know Ol’ Samichlaus holds near and dear to his heart… especially the clogged arteries around my heart. But seriously, you’d never hear those chicks on “Sex and the City” pining over Mohitos saying “Oh, I wish I could meet a nice guy from Sheboygan”, or “So Carrie, are you and Horst getting together tonight?” Truly their loss: I’m sure Horst is a real nice fella, you betcha. But even those guys from “Weezer” probably wind up bedding down with an occasional frau. Anyway, I like the Cowboys to dominate. Dallas 37 Oakland 10
The only thing worse than having to suffer through the Cowboys every Thanksgiving is having to suffer through them with my obnoxious Cowboy-fan uncle talking about how great they are. Thankfully last season when they tatered the Seahawks, we were at my in-laws, so I was spared. This year, in our "rotating holiday appearance" schedule, we'll be at my cousin's house, and I'll be subjected to that uncle. I can only hope the Raiders shock and surprise them. And you know what, now that they've finally benched Jamarcus Russell, they've shown some signs of life. Sort of how the Titans have responded to Vince Young. I'm taking the points, and I think Romo (doesn't he have an injured pinkie or something too?) starts his December swoon a little early. Cowboys 23, Raiders 20.
NY Giants (6-4) at Denver (6-4) +6.5
This is the second most interesting game of the week, behind the Monday nighter in New Orleans. Right now neither of these teams are very good. The Giants tried their best to blow the game last week, squandering a 14 point 4th quarter lead to Atlanta. And what can I say about Denver, who lost to the Redskins and got thoroughly whooped by the Chargers. Denver has two things going for them this week: they are at home, and they get Kyle Orton back. Now, make no mistake about it: I think the Giants will win this game. But I also think Denver makes it close enough to keep it interesting. Lately the Giants D hasn’t been able to stop anyone, and that trend is going to continue against the Broncos. Take Denver and the points, and if you have either Manning or Orton on your fantasy team, play them. It’s going to be a wild west shoot out…. Giants 37 Broncos 34
Denver at home getting that many points against a Giants team that's struggled looks too good to pass up. So good, in fact, that something is fishy. Vegas is BEGGING people to take the Broncos in this game. Well, I'm not falling for it. It's been a crazy season for Denver so far, and only promises to continue to be. As I may have mentioned before, Seattle holds Denver's 2010 1st round draft pick. Going into this season, expectations for Denver were low.. Then they rattled off 6 wins to open the season, and it looked like that draft pick wouldn't nearly be as valuable as it had seemed before the season. Now? With every passing debacle, that pick edges closer and closer to becoming a top 10 pick. It's entirely possible that Seattle will hold two picks in the top 10 next year, in what is widely considered a very strong draft. I'll be watching Denver very carefully, but I think we're starting to see why the expectations were so low for them before the season. Eli has a field day yo. Giants 31, Broncos 23.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Week 5+4+2
Dude, I don't even know what week it is! Anyway, I'm all done. The doc attacched says week 10. I think that's right...
Math lesson! So all the byes are over with now for the year (yay!) Take your team’s record, add the wins and losses together, add 2 (1 for their bye week, and 1 because it’s the “current” week and the game hasn’t been played yet), and you have the week. So take the Packers: 5 wins, 4 losses. 5+4=9. 9+2=11. Week 11 baby! On to the picks:
Miami (4-5) at Carolina (4-5) -3.5
Ronnie Brown going down for the season is a huge blow to the Dolphins. The one man offense tore one of those pesky cruciate ligaments and no, I don’t know which one. All I know is Brown is out, and the Dolphins look to Ricky Williams and Rookie QB Pat White to fill in the role. The Panthers impressed me against the Falcons last week, and are on a bit of a roll winning 3 of their last 5, but I’m not overly confident picking them against a 3-4 defense such as the Dolphins. In the end it comes down to this: the Fins lost their best player this week, and take away their one playmaker and that becomes a difference maker. Carolina 27 Miami 17
Actually, I think he broke his foot. Linscsomethingorother fracture was what I read. But yeah, him going down hurts him. Does that mean Pat White gets on the field more? Probably. And can Ricky Williams find the Fountain of Youth? Probably not. (And even if he did, that might also lead him back to his days of smoking weed and not caring much about football. So either way, they’re screwed.) I actually watched the end of the Bucs-Fins game last week and saw that AWFUL pick Henne threw to give up the presumptive winning score. But then I watched him bounce back nicely and carve up the good ol’ prevent defense and lead the team to victory. I’m quite torn on this game, but I’m going to say it’s been too many weeks without a Jake Delhomme collapse and he’s due. Dolphins 23, Panthers 17.
Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4) -0.5
The Colts just keep finding ways to win, whether by the talent of their quarterback, the idiocy of their opposing coach, the typical favorite treatment by the officials, or a symbiotic convergence of all three as was the case last week against the Patriots. I keep thinking “this is the week they lose” and I keep thinking wrong. So as long as they keep winning, I’m not going to try to outsmart them. As much as I love Baltimore at home, I’m getting right back on that Colts bandwagon. Colts 34 Ravens 27
Not sure how this spread was so low when I grabbed these from my pool on Wednesday, but there it is. The spread is up to 7 now. So this seems like pretty much a gimme. Although that means that everyone and their mother’s in this pool is going to take Indy. Which is tempting me to go the other way. But I just can’t after seeing that win over the Pats last weekend. Poor Anonymous. I might feel bad for him if Seattle actually had any Super Bowl titles. Joe Flacco, meet Dwight Freeney. Colts 36, Ravens 23.
Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4) -8.5
Honestly, I thought Wade Phillips would be gone by week 10, but the great Dick Jauron? Easy kids, that’s sarcasm. Years ago I saw an NFL Films special called “Holmgren’s Heros” where Mike Holmgren was on a panel with all the head coaches he spawned. There was Steve Mariucci, Jon Gruden, Mike Sherman, and Dick Jauron. Holmgren loved Jauron. At one point he said something like “you were the only one that I thought would be a great head coach”. I guess there’s a reason why Holmgren didn’t do so well as the GM in Seattle. He’s not a real good judge of personnel. In other words it’s easy to win a Super Bowl with Brett Favre and Reggie White on your side. Buffalo is falling apart and Jacksonville is hanging around. I like Jacksonville to win with ease and cover by 10. Jacksonville 31 Buffalo 21
Did you guys see Maurice Jones-Drew take that knee on the Jets 1-yard line so they could burn off the final minute of time and kick the winning field goal? Brilliant stuff. The NFL is so weird. How the hell did this team get blown out (and shutout) by Seattle just a few weeks ago? I’ll never figure this stuff out… And yes, Dick Jauron is a pretty awful coach. There’s a lot of awful coaches these days it seems. It’ll be interesting to see where (if anywhere) Holmgren, Shanahan, Cowher, Gruden, Dungy, and Lombardi show up next year. And since you brought up Holmgren… He gets a bit of a bum rap for his GM job in Seattle. Yes, he made some mistakes, but mostly on the defensive side of the ball during the draft. You also have to give him credit for trading a bag of used balls for Matt Hasselbeck. Some other highlights: trading Joey Galloway to Dallas for two first round picks (which turned into Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson). Drafting Steve Hutchinson (and he never would have gotten away if Holmgren was still GM). Signing key free agents Bobby Engram, Trent Dilfer (who played fairly well before Hasselbeck was ready to be the starter), and keeping Walter Jones around by franchinsing him (and relatively happy, as franchise tagged players go). Anyways, his replacement, Tim Ruskell, has fallen out of favor recently with the team’s struggles the past two years. He’s in his last year of contract. So, maybe just maybe, there could be a return of Holmgren to Seattle in strictly a GM role. And I’d be fine with that. Wait, Seattle isn’t even playing in this game we’re talking about? Oops. Jaguars 27, Bills 16.
Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8) -3.5
Ooooh. Alright, for anyone who gives a rat’s ass I won’t mail this in. Ever notice how Detroit hangs around with every team for about 2 quarters, then just falls apart in the second half of a game? I think they put together a solid 60 minute game once and for all and beat the Browns in Detroit. Home field is good for 3 points, so the way I see it is Detroit has to be a half a point better than the Browns, and I think they are. Detroit 20 Cleveland 15
Yeah, the Lions are better than their record (though not by much). And the Browns are worse than their record. The Lions have hung around in several games, so I agree with the reasoning above. Lions 24, Browns 16.
New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8) +11.5
Tampa Bay beat the Packers and covered against the heavily favored Dolphins. And now with a week gone since the Packers debacle Ol’ Samichlaus can honestly say that he sees good things in rookie QB Josh Freeman. The guy is a friggin load. Now I don’t think Tampa can beat the Saints, but I think they can keep it close. I’m going out on a bit of a limb here, but let’s go with Tampa and the points Saints 37 Bucs 27
After successfully covering huge spreads for their first six games this season, the Saints have failed to cover for the last three, beginning with that Monday night debacle. Make it four this week. I don’t know if they’re holding back a bit maybe as to save some surprises for the playoffs or if teams are starting to see something, but they’re no longer winning by 3+ TDs every week. Make it four in a row. Saints 37, Bus 28.
San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4) -6.5
Wow, that’s a lot of points against a tough 49rs team. There are several keys to a Packers win. First, they must maintain whatever momentum they’ve accumulated with the win over Dallas. Second, they must contain Frank Gore. Third, they must play a crisp west coast offense and control the ball, and that means fourth they must protect the quarterback. The win over the Cowboys was huge and was exactly what they needed to turn the season around. Now they have to execute. The danger is how will they handle the pressure that the Niners will bring. Maybe Singletary’s “stuff” is running thin, but the Niners still play hard every down. I’m going with the Pack: I think they put it together one more time and do it with D. Packers 20 Niners 7
Did I say this league is tough to figure out? The Packers are the perfect example. What the fuck is up with this team? I mean, I went along with my partner’s pick last week just in case Nick Barnett happened to stumble across the blog and got mixed signals. (I mean, if he’s THAT concerned with what his fans think, don’t you believe he Googles his name once in awhile? And just for the hell of it, I Google’d “@NickBarnett”.. We came up on page 13…. He might get that far who knows, but I digress…) Anyways, realistically I thought the Packers were going to get smoked by Dallas, and that maybe my “they’re overrated” philosophy about the Cowboys would have to be buried for a little while. Well, thankfully, I can keep beating that idea into the ground. The Packers seem to have decent talent on both sides of the ball (though their offensive line seems shaky at times), so why can’t they consistently play well? And yes, I think the Singletary’s act is probably getting old with his players. Don’t forget the Niners have no QB. I’ll take the Packers and hope they stay hot. Packers 23, Niners 16.
Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1) -11.5
Can Seattle please win this darn game? I’m not asking for much, I’m just sick of the Vikings winning close game after close game. That team annoys me. They have so much, now what’s the word I’m looking for, talent? For no other reason than pure rooting interests I’m taking Seattle and the points. 11.5 is too hefty for my tastes. Vikings 30 Seahawks 27
You know, it was 14-0 Seattle over Arizona last week, and I was dancing around my living room, getting my daughter to yell “Go Seahawks!” and thinking to myself “Yes, just don’t blow this, and this season is salvageable!” Well, they blew it. They were outscored 31-6 the rest of the game (including being unable to punch if into the end zone from inside the 15 twice, something you can’t do against an offense like Arizona). They somehow thought it’d be a good idea to only rush 3 and drop 8 all game against Warner… And it DID work for a little while. But come on, mix it up a little. Jesus H. Christ. There’s a slim chance the Vikes look past Seattle and blow this. But more likely is Adrian Peterson running for about 400 yards and this not even being close. Vikings 37, Seahawks 16.
Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3) -11.5
The Redskins won a game last week, so they’ve officially met their quota for November, and Dallas looked so woefully inept against the Packers that Packer fans have already starting building the Mike McCarthy statue on Oneida Ave. Well, not really. I think this game is going to be closer than it looks on paper. These are two division rivals going at it, one coming off a big win and the other coming off a big loss. Dallas will be fired up, but so will the Skins who keep it close enough to warrant taking the points. Dallas 27 Washington 20
Yes, the Redskins. Who couldn’t have possibly put up over 20 points against the Broncos, no way. Let’s chain together a few quick clichés and be done with this: Cowboys overrated. A lot of points for a divisional rivalry game. Redskins got a wake-up call win. Blah blah blah. Cowboys 24, Skins 23.
Atlanta (5-4) at NY Giants (5-4) -6.5
I am officially off the Falcons bandwagon. The stinker they put up against the Cats last week was the last straw. Sadly, I am also off the Giants bandwagon who have lost 4 in a row. Since they are coming off a bye, this constitutes a mitigating factor. Look for the Giants to rebound and for Atlanta’s woes to continue. Giants 23 Falcons 15
Yeah, me too. I couldn’t get off that bandwagon soon enough after seeing them look awful against Carolina last week. Matt Ryan is playing like the rookie he should have looked like last year. He’s only thrown for over 230 yards twice this year in 9 games. With weapons like Michael Turner, Anthony Gonzlez, and Roddy White, that’s unacceptable. Meanwhile, the Giants are quickly looking like a non-playoff team. This game could mean a lot at the end of the season when the Wild Card is being decided. Giants 24, Falcons 17.
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7) +10.5
Pittsburgh figured out something last week right around the same time Samichlaus figured it out: The Bengals are better than them. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well for Stealer nation and it will sit even worse for poor Kansas City. Giving KC 10.5 at home is a huge deal, but I like Pittsburgh. I think the Stealers bounce back after a tough loss to hand it to the Chiefs with ease. Pittsburgh 31 Kansas City 10
There’s a good clip of annoying Terry Bradshaw guaranteeing that the Bengals don’t beat the Stealers in Pittsburgh last week. Let me see if I can find it real quick… Please hold.. Man, too much Bradshaw on Youtube, no such luck, sorry guys. Anyways, the Chiefs are pretty horrible. A late TD might make this close. Oh screw it, I’ll take the home points. Stealers 27, Chiefs 20.
Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8) +9.5
The Cardinals continue to play solid consistent football, and this week should be no different. St. Louis has no answer for the Cardinals who should coast in a uneventful matchup. Cardinals 34 Rams 13
You know, the Rams stuck around last week against the Saints. Maybe that gave them a little confidence. I’m a little hesitant to call the Cardinals consistent during a 2-game win streak that includes the horrible Seahawks and Bears. I’ve been saying it’s only a matter of time before Kurt Warner breaks down for two years now, and he keeps proving me wrong. What if I just go with a “take every home team getting more than a TD” plan this week and just call it a day? Cardinals 37, Rams 33.
Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7) +9.5
The Bengals are the shiznit right now! I just loooove that they’ve stuck it to Pittsburgh twice! Why the spread on this game isn’t higher is beyond me. Maybe it’s because Oakland has decided to sit uber-bust Jamarcus Russell for, wait, I actually have to google this, Bruce Gradkowski? I don’t get Russell. The guy was all world at LSU and showed some improvements as his first year progressed. But this year it is clear that he has regressed. He simply can’t make the throws. Gradkowski, from Toledo, is an unknown, but I am betting that the Bengals handle this game with aplomb. Bengals 35 Raiders 10
Okay, so it took me all of about 30 seconds to break the rule I just established. I am firmly entrenched on the Bengals bandwagon. Gradkowski actually started a handful of games for Tampa Bay a few years ago, I think it was after Chris Simms got hurt but before they brought in Jeff Garcia. Is he still unsigned? Maybe he got a job doing Broadway? Dammit, someone sign Jeff Garcia for fuck sake! This blog needs him! I’m taking Cinci and their chilli. Bengals 32, Raiders 16.
NY Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3) -10.5
Pity the Jets, who have to face the Patriots after the meltdown in Indy. 10.5 seems like a lot for these two teams, considering the Jets have already beaten them, but I’m leaning towards the Patriots. The reason being after last week’s showing, the Pats are going to look to dominate. I know their head coach (well, not really. In fact I’ve never met the bastard) and I know he won’t hold back this week, no way no how. Patriots 35 Jets 23
This could get ugly. The Patriots are going to be pissed off this week. Besides blowing the game to the Colts and losing to the Jets earlier this season, there’s no mercy this time around. Look for Brady and Moss to explode, and the game to get a little chippy towards the end. (And for the record, I think that call to go for it on 4th and 2 was a pretty bad choice. Would Manning have driven down the field and scored anyways? Maybe, but make him earn it with an extra 40-50 yards in crunch time. I feel they handed the Colts that game. And it could cost them come playoff time when the seedings roll around.) Patriots 47, Jets 20.
San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3) +3.5
Denver a dog at home should be an easy pick, but hold on. Denver is officially on life support. If they couldn’t right the ship against the Redskins last week then there ain’t no ship left to be righted. Add to that (a) Kyle Orton has not practiced and (b) the Bolts are surging and I see a Bolts victory in the making San Diego wins and covers: Chargers 31 Broncos 20
That analysis is perfectly logical and makes complete sense. Which is why I’m going in the opposite direction. Just when we think we’ve got things figured out, it all flips around upside down. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos win in a blow out. (Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Samichualus being dead on either. That’s the NFL – you never know.) Broncos 31, Chargers 30.
Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5) +2.5
The Bears have lost 4 of their last 5 and really laid an egg against the 49rs. Since beating the snot out of the Giants, the Eagles have lost 2 straight. Now there’s no shame in losing to the Cowboys and Bolts (as the Eagles have) but this is a must win for them. For the Bears, the season is over and they know it, Lovie Smith has officially lost them, and Jay Cutler is currently persona non grata thanks to his 5 interception debacle against the Niners. The Eagles get it right this week: Eagles 34 Bears 17
I’m not sure I’d say the Bears are done just yet. This is one of those games between middle-of-the-pack teams that really could shape what the Wild Card race looks like heading into the season’s home stretch. There are 7 teams in the NFC right now that are 5-4 or 4-5. And two of those 5-4 teams would qualify for the Wild Card if the season ended today. This could be one of those year’s where an 8-8 team makes the playoffs. It really isn’t over for anybody unless you’re Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, or KC. Even Seattle and Washington are technically only 2 games out of a playoff spot at 3-6, and the Titans have looked good lately. I’m taking the home dog again. Bears 23, Eagles 20.
Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4) -4.5
Houston comes off the bye and a tough loss to the Colts to face a Titans team that probably filled it’s highlight reel last week against the Bills. I guess by now our readers know how much I like teams coming off a bye so let’s be consistent. I’m taking Houston and the points. The Texans are a good team. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, they’re at home and they’re rested. The Titans have been up and down. Houston by at least a TD . Texans 27 Titans 20
Speaking of the Titans.. Holy crap, is Chris Johnson good? Forget about Peterson, this dude is the most explosive running back in the league right now. The dude has 16 rushes for over 20 yards. That basically means you can depend on him to bust a big one about twice a game. His average per carry is 6.4 yards. No wonder the Titans have looked good since putting Vince Young in. They’ve basically abandoned the passing game and let Johnson take over. Oh, and he’s 6 months younger than Peterson and has one fewer season of wear and tear on him. He’s the player I start a new franchise with, hands down. (Okay, maybe I’m a little biased because I have him on my fantasy team and he’s single-handedly won me several games this year. But still, he’s a beast.) The Texans are decent too. This should be a good game. Titans 31, Texans 29.
Math lesson! So all the byes are over with now for the year (yay!) Take your team’s record, add the wins and losses together, add 2 (1 for their bye week, and 1 because it’s the “current” week and the game hasn’t been played yet), and you have the week. So take the Packers: 5 wins, 4 losses. 5+4=9. 9+2=11. Week 11 baby! On to the picks:
Miami (4-5) at Carolina (4-5) -3.5
Ronnie Brown going down for the season is a huge blow to the Dolphins. The one man offense tore one of those pesky cruciate ligaments and no, I don’t know which one. All I know is Brown is out, and the Dolphins look to Ricky Williams and Rookie QB Pat White to fill in the role. The Panthers impressed me against the Falcons last week, and are on a bit of a roll winning 3 of their last 5, but I’m not overly confident picking them against a 3-4 defense such as the Dolphins. In the end it comes down to this: the Fins lost their best player this week, and take away their one playmaker and that becomes a difference maker. Carolina 27 Miami 17
Actually, I think he broke his foot. Linscsomethingorother fracture was what I read. But yeah, him going down hurts him. Does that mean Pat White gets on the field more? Probably. And can Ricky Williams find the Fountain of Youth? Probably not. (And even if he did, that might also lead him back to his days of smoking weed and not caring much about football. So either way, they’re screwed.) I actually watched the end of the Bucs-Fins game last week and saw that AWFUL pick Henne threw to give up the presumptive winning score. But then I watched him bounce back nicely and carve up the good ol’ prevent defense and lead the team to victory. I’m quite torn on this game, but I’m going to say it’s been too many weeks without a Jake Delhomme collapse and he’s due. Dolphins 23, Panthers 17.
Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4) -0.5
The Colts just keep finding ways to win, whether by the talent of their quarterback, the idiocy of their opposing coach, the typical favorite treatment by the officials, or a symbiotic convergence of all three as was the case last week against the Patriots. I keep thinking “this is the week they lose” and I keep thinking wrong. So as long as they keep winning, I’m not going to try to outsmart them. As much as I love Baltimore at home, I’m getting right back on that Colts bandwagon. Colts 34 Ravens 27
Not sure how this spread was so low when I grabbed these from my pool on Wednesday, but there it is. The spread is up to 7 now. So this seems like pretty much a gimme. Although that means that everyone and their mother’s in this pool is going to take Indy. Which is tempting me to go the other way. But I just can’t after seeing that win over the Pats last weekend. Poor Anonymous. I might feel bad for him if Seattle actually had any Super Bowl titles. Joe Flacco, meet Dwight Freeney. Colts 36, Ravens 23.
Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4) -8.5
Honestly, I thought Wade Phillips would be gone by week 10, but the great Dick Jauron? Easy kids, that’s sarcasm. Years ago I saw an NFL Films special called “Holmgren’s Heros” where Mike Holmgren was on a panel with all the head coaches he spawned. There was Steve Mariucci, Jon Gruden, Mike Sherman, and Dick Jauron. Holmgren loved Jauron. At one point he said something like “you were the only one that I thought would be a great head coach”. I guess there’s a reason why Holmgren didn’t do so well as the GM in Seattle. He’s not a real good judge of personnel. In other words it’s easy to win a Super Bowl with Brett Favre and Reggie White on your side. Buffalo is falling apart and Jacksonville is hanging around. I like Jacksonville to win with ease and cover by 10. Jacksonville 31 Buffalo 21
Did you guys see Maurice Jones-Drew take that knee on the Jets 1-yard line so they could burn off the final minute of time and kick the winning field goal? Brilliant stuff. The NFL is so weird. How the hell did this team get blown out (and shutout) by Seattle just a few weeks ago? I’ll never figure this stuff out… And yes, Dick Jauron is a pretty awful coach. There’s a lot of awful coaches these days it seems. It’ll be interesting to see where (if anywhere) Holmgren, Shanahan, Cowher, Gruden, Dungy, and Lombardi show up next year. And since you brought up Holmgren… He gets a bit of a bum rap for his GM job in Seattle. Yes, he made some mistakes, but mostly on the defensive side of the ball during the draft. You also have to give him credit for trading a bag of used balls for Matt Hasselbeck. Some other highlights: trading Joey Galloway to Dallas for two first round picks (which turned into Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson). Drafting Steve Hutchinson (and he never would have gotten away if Holmgren was still GM). Signing key free agents Bobby Engram, Trent Dilfer (who played fairly well before Hasselbeck was ready to be the starter), and keeping Walter Jones around by franchinsing him (and relatively happy, as franchise tagged players go). Anyways, his replacement, Tim Ruskell, has fallen out of favor recently with the team’s struggles the past two years. He’s in his last year of contract. So, maybe just maybe, there could be a return of Holmgren to Seattle in strictly a GM role. And I’d be fine with that. Wait, Seattle isn’t even playing in this game we’re talking about? Oops. Jaguars 27, Bills 16.
Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8) -3.5
Ooooh. Alright, for anyone who gives a rat’s ass I won’t mail this in. Ever notice how Detroit hangs around with every team for about 2 quarters, then just falls apart in the second half of a game? I think they put together a solid 60 minute game once and for all and beat the Browns in Detroit. Home field is good for 3 points, so the way I see it is Detroit has to be a half a point better than the Browns, and I think they are. Detroit 20 Cleveland 15
Yeah, the Lions are better than their record (though not by much). And the Browns are worse than their record. The Lions have hung around in several games, so I agree with the reasoning above. Lions 24, Browns 16.
New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8) +11.5
Tampa Bay beat the Packers and covered against the heavily favored Dolphins. And now with a week gone since the Packers debacle Ol’ Samichlaus can honestly say that he sees good things in rookie QB Josh Freeman. The guy is a friggin load. Now I don’t think Tampa can beat the Saints, but I think they can keep it close. I’m going out on a bit of a limb here, but let’s go with Tampa and the points Saints 37 Bucs 27
After successfully covering huge spreads for their first six games this season, the Saints have failed to cover for the last three, beginning with that Monday night debacle. Make it four this week. I don’t know if they’re holding back a bit maybe as to save some surprises for the playoffs or if teams are starting to see something, but they’re no longer winning by 3+ TDs every week. Make it four in a row. Saints 37, Bus 28.
San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4) -6.5
Wow, that’s a lot of points against a tough 49rs team. There are several keys to a Packers win. First, they must maintain whatever momentum they’ve accumulated with the win over Dallas. Second, they must contain Frank Gore. Third, they must play a crisp west coast offense and control the ball, and that means fourth they must protect the quarterback. The win over the Cowboys was huge and was exactly what they needed to turn the season around. Now they have to execute. The danger is how will they handle the pressure that the Niners will bring. Maybe Singletary’s “stuff” is running thin, but the Niners still play hard every down. I’m going with the Pack: I think they put it together one more time and do it with D. Packers 20 Niners 7
Did I say this league is tough to figure out? The Packers are the perfect example. What the fuck is up with this team? I mean, I went along with my partner’s pick last week just in case Nick Barnett happened to stumble across the blog and got mixed signals. (I mean, if he’s THAT concerned with what his fans think, don’t you believe he Googles his name once in awhile? And just for the hell of it, I Google’d “@NickBarnett”.. We came up on page 13…. He might get that far who knows, but I digress…) Anyways, realistically I thought the Packers were going to get smoked by Dallas, and that maybe my “they’re overrated” philosophy about the Cowboys would have to be buried for a little while. Well, thankfully, I can keep beating that idea into the ground. The Packers seem to have decent talent on both sides of the ball (though their offensive line seems shaky at times), so why can’t they consistently play well? And yes, I think the Singletary’s act is probably getting old with his players. Don’t forget the Niners have no QB. I’ll take the Packers and hope they stay hot. Packers 23, Niners 16.
Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1) -11.5
Can Seattle please win this darn game? I’m not asking for much, I’m just sick of the Vikings winning close game after close game. That team annoys me. They have so much, now what’s the word I’m looking for, talent? For no other reason than pure rooting interests I’m taking Seattle and the points. 11.5 is too hefty for my tastes. Vikings 30 Seahawks 27
You know, it was 14-0 Seattle over Arizona last week, and I was dancing around my living room, getting my daughter to yell “Go Seahawks!” and thinking to myself “Yes, just don’t blow this, and this season is salvageable!” Well, they blew it. They were outscored 31-6 the rest of the game (including being unable to punch if into the end zone from inside the 15 twice, something you can’t do against an offense like Arizona). They somehow thought it’d be a good idea to only rush 3 and drop 8 all game against Warner… And it DID work for a little while. But come on, mix it up a little. Jesus H. Christ. There’s a slim chance the Vikes look past Seattle and blow this. But more likely is Adrian Peterson running for about 400 yards and this not even being close. Vikings 37, Seahawks 16.
Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3) -11.5
The Redskins won a game last week, so they’ve officially met their quota for November, and Dallas looked so woefully inept against the Packers that Packer fans have already starting building the Mike McCarthy statue on Oneida Ave. Well, not really. I think this game is going to be closer than it looks on paper. These are two division rivals going at it, one coming off a big win and the other coming off a big loss. Dallas will be fired up, but so will the Skins who keep it close enough to warrant taking the points. Dallas 27 Washington 20
Yes, the Redskins. Who couldn’t have possibly put up over 20 points against the Broncos, no way. Let’s chain together a few quick clichés and be done with this: Cowboys overrated. A lot of points for a divisional rivalry game. Redskins got a wake-up call win. Blah blah blah. Cowboys 24, Skins 23.
Atlanta (5-4) at NY Giants (5-4) -6.5
I am officially off the Falcons bandwagon. The stinker they put up against the Cats last week was the last straw. Sadly, I am also off the Giants bandwagon who have lost 4 in a row. Since they are coming off a bye, this constitutes a mitigating factor. Look for the Giants to rebound and for Atlanta’s woes to continue. Giants 23 Falcons 15
Yeah, me too. I couldn’t get off that bandwagon soon enough after seeing them look awful against Carolina last week. Matt Ryan is playing like the rookie he should have looked like last year. He’s only thrown for over 230 yards twice this year in 9 games. With weapons like Michael Turner, Anthony Gonzlez, and Roddy White, that’s unacceptable. Meanwhile, the Giants are quickly looking like a non-playoff team. This game could mean a lot at the end of the season when the Wild Card is being decided. Giants 24, Falcons 17.
Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7) +10.5
Pittsburgh figured out something last week right around the same time Samichlaus figured it out: The Bengals are better than them. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well for Stealer nation and it will sit even worse for poor Kansas City. Giving KC 10.5 at home is a huge deal, but I like Pittsburgh. I think the Stealers bounce back after a tough loss to hand it to the Chiefs with ease. Pittsburgh 31 Kansas City 10
There’s a good clip of annoying Terry Bradshaw guaranteeing that the Bengals don’t beat the Stealers in Pittsburgh last week. Let me see if I can find it real quick… Please hold.. Man, too much Bradshaw on Youtube, no such luck, sorry guys. Anyways, the Chiefs are pretty horrible. A late TD might make this close. Oh screw it, I’ll take the home points. Stealers 27, Chiefs 20.
Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8) +9.5
The Cardinals continue to play solid consistent football, and this week should be no different. St. Louis has no answer for the Cardinals who should coast in a uneventful matchup. Cardinals 34 Rams 13
You know, the Rams stuck around last week against the Saints. Maybe that gave them a little confidence. I’m a little hesitant to call the Cardinals consistent during a 2-game win streak that includes the horrible Seahawks and Bears. I’ve been saying it’s only a matter of time before Kurt Warner breaks down for two years now, and he keeps proving me wrong. What if I just go with a “take every home team getting more than a TD” plan this week and just call it a day? Cardinals 37, Rams 33.
Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7) +9.5
The Bengals are the shiznit right now! I just loooove that they’ve stuck it to Pittsburgh twice! Why the spread on this game isn’t higher is beyond me. Maybe it’s because Oakland has decided to sit uber-bust Jamarcus Russell for, wait, I actually have to google this, Bruce Gradkowski? I don’t get Russell. The guy was all world at LSU and showed some improvements as his first year progressed. But this year it is clear that he has regressed. He simply can’t make the throws. Gradkowski, from Toledo, is an unknown, but I am betting that the Bengals handle this game with aplomb. Bengals 35 Raiders 10
Okay, so it took me all of about 30 seconds to break the rule I just established. I am firmly entrenched on the Bengals bandwagon. Gradkowski actually started a handful of games for Tampa Bay a few years ago, I think it was after Chris Simms got hurt but before they brought in Jeff Garcia. Is he still unsigned? Maybe he got a job doing Broadway? Dammit, someone sign Jeff Garcia for fuck sake! This blog needs him! I’m taking Cinci and their chilli. Bengals 32, Raiders 16.
NY Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3) -10.5
Pity the Jets, who have to face the Patriots after the meltdown in Indy. 10.5 seems like a lot for these two teams, considering the Jets have already beaten them, but I’m leaning towards the Patriots. The reason being after last week’s showing, the Pats are going to look to dominate. I know their head coach (well, not really. In fact I’ve never met the bastard) and I know he won’t hold back this week, no way no how. Patriots 35 Jets 23
This could get ugly. The Patriots are going to be pissed off this week. Besides blowing the game to the Colts and losing to the Jets earlier this season, there’s no mercy this time around. Look for Brady and Moss to explode, and the game to get a little chippy towards the end. (And for the record, I think that call to go for it on 4th and 2 was a pretty bad choice. Would Manning have driven down the field and scored anyways? Maybe, but make him earn it with an extra 40-50 yards in crunch time. I feel they handed the Colts that game. And it could cost them come playoff time when the seedings roll around.) Patriots 47, Jets 20.
San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3) +3.5
Denver a dog at home should be an easy pick, but hold on. Denver is officially on life support. If they couldn’t right the ship against the Redskins last week then there ain’t no ship left to be righted. Add to that (a) Kyle Orton has not practiced and (b) the Bolts are surging and I see a Bolts victory in the making San Diego wins and covers: Chargers 31 Broncos 20
That analysis is perfectly logical and makes complete sense. Which is why I’m going in the opposite direction. Just when we think we’ve got things figured out, it all flips around upside down. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos win in a blow out. (Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Samichualus being dead on either. That’s the NFL – you never know.) Broncos 31, Chargers 30.
Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5) +2.5
The Bears have lost 4 of their last 5 and really laid an egg against the 49rs. Since beating the snot out of the Giants, the Eagles have lost 2 straight. Now there’s no shame in losing to the Cowboys and Bolts (as the Eagles have) but this is a must win for them. For the Bears, the season is over and they know it, Lovie Smith has officially lost them, and Jay Cutler is currently persona non grata thanks to his 5 interception debacle against the Niners. The Eagles get it right this week: Eagles 34 Bears 17
I’m not sure I’d say the Bears are done just yet. This is one of those games between middle-of-the-pack teams that really could shape what the Wild Card race looks like heading into the season’s home stretch. There are 7 teams in the NFC right now that are 5-4 or 4-5. And two of those 5-4 teams would qualify for the Wild Card if the season ended today. This could be one of those year’s where an 8-8 team makes the playoffs. It really isn’t over for anybody unless you’re Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, or KC. Even Seattle and Washington are technically only 2 games out of a playoff spot at 3-6, and the Titans have looked good lately. I’m taking the home dog again. Bears 23, Eagles 20.
Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4) -4.5
Houston comes off the bye and a tough loss to the Colts to face a Titans team that probably filled it’s highlight reel last week against the Bills. I guess by now our readers know how much I like teams coming off a bye so let’s be consistent. I’m taking Houston and the points. The Texans are a good team. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, they’re at home and they’re rested. The Titans have been up and down. Houston by at least a TD . Texans 27 Titans 20
Speaking of the Titans.. Holy crap, is Chris Johnson good? Forget about Peterson, this dude is the most explosive running back in the league right now. The dude has 16 rushes for over 20 yards. That basically means you can depend on him to bust a big one about twice a game. His average per carry is 6.4 yards. No wonder the Titans have looked good since putting Vince Young in. They’ve basically abandoned the passing game and let Johnson take over. Oh, and he’s 6 months younger than Peterson and has one fewer season of wear and tear on him. He’s the player I start a new franchise with, hands down. (Okay, maybe I’m a little biased because I have him on my fantasy team and he’s single-handedly won me several games this year. But still, he’s a beast.) The Texans are decent too. This should be a good game. Titans 31, Texans 29.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Dialog from the Samichlaus household...
Only at the Samichlaus household could this conversation possibly occur:
Samichlaus: “Hey hon, check out the blog. We’ve got the picks up and I did another entry on the Barnett thing”
Mrs. Samichlaus: “OK. Oh, by the way, (with a distinct sense of indignity) I knew what a “Dirty Sanchez” was. I knew what a “Dirty Sanchez” was when they were talking about it with that Screech guy from “Saved by the Bell”. And let me tell you, any woman who would f#*k Screech from “Saved by the Bell” deserves to get a “Dirty Sanchez”!”
Samichlaus: (laughing hysterically) “I think I know what my next blog post will be about…”
Samichlaus: “Hey hon, check out the blog. We’ve got the picks up and I did another entry on the Barnett thing”
Mrs. Samichlaus: “OK. Oh, by the way, (with a distinct sense of indignity) I knew what a “Dirty Sanchez” was. I knew what a “Dirty Sanchez” was when they were talking about it with that Screech guy from “Saved by the Bell”. And let me tell you, any woman who would f#*k Screech from “Saved by the Bell” deserves to get a “Dirty Sanchez”!”
Samichlaus: (laughing hysterically) “I think I know what my next blog post will be about…”
@NickBarnett, the final chapter (a tweet story)
The following exchange occured on Twitter earlier this week:
Nick Barnett after the loss to Tampa Bay: “Dissapointed!!! That's all I can say!!! But regardless how hard we will be beat up by media we will continue to work as hard as we must”
Samichlaus, after reading Nick’s tweet: “@NickBarnett Stop blaming the media, and stop talking about "working harder". The team gets outworked every week, and that means you. Do it.”
Nick Barnet “replies” to Samichlaus:
This was how it came to pass that Ol’ Samichlaus got Packers linebacker Nick Barnett’s attention. If you’re reading this then you probably have read my two previous posts about Nick’s twitter habits. I found it interesting that the young man was so sensitive, and such an approval seeker. He recently set up a poll on his website asking fans to name the most negative of all the Packers beat writers. Every week, after another brutal Packers loss, Nick likes to talk about working harder and doing what we’ve got to do, but after the loss to Tampa, Nick took it to a new level, calling out the media in the tweet mentioned above.
As a fan that roots for the team and spends his hard earned dollars supporting the team, I’d had enough, and let my frustrations vent out. My reply to @NickBarnett was no more and no less. I’m frustrated watching teams outwork the Packers every week, only to hear from their emotional and defensive leader that the team just needs to work harder. What in God’s name were you doing the week before? Regardless, Twitter has provided a level of casual access to players that fans have never had before and I took advantage of the technology.
So Nick Barnett has blocked me from receiving his tweets. I’m actually quite flattered. As I tweeted last night “it’s the first thing Nick’s blocked all season”.
He’s still tweeting and I can still read them. He tweeted this on Tuesday: “Good morning to all my great packer fans and to all the haters as well still have lots of love for you guys!!” I guess that was meant for me. The least he could have said was “and to all the haters that I’ve blocked from twitter because after having half the NFL up my ass during our pathetic performances, all I can handle up my ass these days is sunshine bullshit” but there is a 140 character limit on Twitter. In fact, here are the kinds of posts Nick receives on his Twitter page:
volcanicflower: @NickBarnett Good morning to you! Best of luck to you and the team on Sunday. Win or lose, I will always be a Packer fan.
jcl3202: @nickbarnett good morning to you as well!
tclansman: @NickBarnett good morning, good luck against the cowboys this week!!!! :) hope you have a big game
smoothnovelist: @NickBarnett Good morning sir. have a blessed day.
That last one’s my favorite. Nick is making several million dollars this year. Every day for him is blessed. Oh, and if Nick is truly Christian then he should forgive me. You know, turn the other cheek?
Well, as the kids of today like to say “it’s all good”. More than anything I think its way cool that I got under Nick’s skin. That’s more than I can say for his head coach or his defensive coordinator. And since this is Sports Blog Steves and I’m one of the Steves I can say whatever I want here. So to Nick Barnett and my beloved Packers: I am not a hater. I love the Packers and if you knew me then you’d know by every measurement you can imagine, my love for the Packers is off the charts. I rooted for the Packers when I was growing up in New York City in the 1970s, and I rooted for them through the awful 1980s. I was there at Super Bowl 31 when they beat New England. I’ve dragged my beautiful wife from the relative warmth of Virginia to Green Bay twice. So don’t you dare call me a hater.
In fact it’s the other way around: You have failed me. And by you I mean the Packers team and organization
You go out week after week and put on a lackluster performance. You are beaten by Minnesota and you are beaten by Tampa Bay. You do not protect your quarterback. You do not pressure the opponent’s quarterback. Your running backs are old and or slow: none of them could gain 100 yards against the 30th ranked rushing defense in the league. You are out hustled and out worked every week. Your head coach is clearly overmatched. He does not grasp the concept of rhythm and consistency in offense. His play calling is suspect, and he appears to have no ability to motivate. Your defensive coordinator has not gained the trust of his players. They have lost faith in the system and openly criticize him in the press. Your special teams play borders on laughable. You are the butt of every “short bus special“ joke out there. You have two playmakers on the team, Donald Driver and Charles Woodson: both are nearing the end of their storied careers. You have done nothing to attract free agents or veteran leadership, and have alienated the top talent in the league by your inept handling of one of the greatest players in franchise history. You are consistently the youngest team in the league, and your lack of discipline during games is indicative of it. Your quarterback often time is clueless and indecisive, but that stems from the lack of game plan or vision from your head coach. And to top it all off, your emotional leader is tweeting about the negative press after a loss to an 0-7 team. Excuse me, a 1–7 team.
Next year, God willing, Mike and Ted’s excellent adventure will be over. Maybe Jon Gruden will be coaching, or maybe Bill Cowher. Hell I’d even take Mike Holmgren back in a heartbeat, but that big pear shaped jackass Mike Sherman can stay wherever the hell he is. The bottom line is long after Nick Barnett retires and Mike McCarthy is tending bar in Pittsburgh, I will be a Packers fan, rooting for my team and wearing the $200.00 jersey my wife purchased for me from the Packers pro shop. You know the one she had made with my name on it? It’s the official game day jersey the players wear. The flag that flew over Lambeau field on my 40th birthday (another gift from my wife) will be in its case in my living room, right next to its certificate of authenticity. My Brett Favre autographed helmet (yet another gift from my wife) will still be on our bookshelf, right by my two most prized possessions: the footballs my wife stood out in the rain and cold at Lambeau field and had the players and coaches autograph as they left practice in 2005 and 2006. She got Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings, and Donald Lee and William Henderson who lives here in Richmond. And she got tons more.
And if the Packers turn this season around, beat Dallas this weekend, and make an unbelievable run for the playoffs, I’ll celebrate as I've never celebrated before. But I'm not here to pump sunshine up your ass idiot, that's what I pay you to do.
Nick Barnett after the loss to Tampa Bay: “Dissapointed!!! That's all I can say!!! But regardless how hard we will be beat up by media we will continue to work as hard as we must”
Samichlaus, after reading Nick’s tweet: “@NickBarnett Stop blaming the media, and stop talking about "working harder". The team gets outworked every week, and that means you. Do it.”
Nick Barnet “replies” to Samichlaus:
This was how it came to pass that Ol’ Samichlaus got Packers linebacker Nick Barnett’s attention. If you’re reading this then you probably have read my two previous posts about Nick’s twitter habits. I found it interesting that the young man was so sensitive, and such an approval seeker. He recently set up a poll on his website asking fans to name the most negative of all the Packers beat writers. Every week, after another brutal Packers loss, Nick likes to talk about working harder and doing what we’ve got to do, but after the loss to Tampa, Nick took it to a new level, calling out the media in the tweet mentioned above.
As a fan that roots for the team and spends his hard earned dollars supporting the team, I’d had enough, and let my frustrations vent out. My reply to @NickBarnett was no more and no less. I’m frustrated watching teams outwork the Packers every week, only to hear from their emotional and defensive leader that the team just needs to work harder. What in God’s name were you doing the week before? Regardless, Twitter has provided a level of casual access to players that fans have never had before and I took advantage of the technology.
So Nick Barnett has blocked me from receiving his tweets. I’m actually quite flattered. As I tweeted last night “it’s the first thing Nick’s blocked all season”.
He’s still tweeting and I can still read them. He tweeted this on Tuesday: “Good morning to all my great packer fans and to all the haters as well still have lots of love for you guys!!” I guess that was meant for me. The least he could have said was “and to all the haters that I’ve blocked from twitter because after having half the NFL up my ass during our pathetic performances, all I can handle up my ass these days is sunshine bullshit” but there is a 140 character limit on Twitter. In fact, here are the kinds of posts Nick receives on his Twitter page:
volcanicflower: @NickBarnett Good morning to you! Best of luck to you and the team on Sunday. Win or lose, I will always be a Packer fan.
jcl3202: @nickbarnett good morning to you as well!
tclansman: @NickBarnett good morning, good luck against the cowboys this week!!!! :) hope you have a big game
smoothnovelist: @NickBarnett Good morning sir. have a blessed day.
That last one’s my favorite. Nick is making several million dollars this year. Every day for him is blessed. Oh, and if Nick is truly Christian then he should forgive me. You know, turn the other cheek?
Well, as the kids of today like to say “it’s all good”. More than anything I think its way cool that I got under Nick’s skin. That’s more than I can say for his head coach or his defensive coordinator. And since this is Sports Blog Steves and I’m one of the Steves I can say whatever I want here. So to Nick Barnett and my beloved Packers: I am not a hater. I love the Packers and if you knew me then you’d know by every measurement you can imagine, my love for the Packers is off the charts. I rooted for the Packers when I was growing up in New York City in the 1970s, and I rooted for them through the awful 1980s. I was there at Super Bowl 31 when they beat New England. I’ve dragged my beautiful wife from the relative warmth of Virginia to Green Bay twice. So don’t you dare call me a hater.
In fact it’s the other way around: You have failed me. And by you I mean the Packers team and organization
You go out week after week and put on a lackluster performance. You are beaten by Minnesota and you are beaten by Tampa Bay. You do not protect your quarterback. You do not pressure the opponent’s quarterback. Your running backs are old and or slow: none of them could gain 100 yards against the 30th ranked rushing defense in the league. You are out hustled and out worked every week. Your head coach is clearly overmatched. He does not grasp the concept of rhythm and consistency in offense. His play calling is suspect, and he appears to have no ability to motivate. Your defensive coordinator has not gained the trust of his players. They have lost faith in the system and openly criticize him in the press. Your special teams play borders on laughable. You are the butt of every “short bus special“ joke out there. You have two playmakers on the team, Donald Driver and Charles Woodson: both are nearing the end of their storied careers. You have done nothing to attract free agents or veteran leadership, and have alienated the top talent in the league by your inept handling of one of the greatest players in franchise history. You are consistently the youngest team in the league, and your lack of discipline during games is indicative of it. Your quarterback often time is clueless and indecisive, but that stems from the lack of game plan or vision from your head coach. And to top it all off, your emotional leader is tweeting about the negative press after a loss to an 0-7 team. Excuse me, a 1–7 team.
Next year, God willing, Mike and Ted’s excellent adventure will be over. Maybe Jon Gruden will be coaching, or maybe Bill Cowher. Hell I’d even take Mike Holmgren back in a heartbeat, but that big pear shaped jackass Mike Sherman can stay wherever the hell he is. The bottom line is long after Nick Barnett retires and Mike McCarthy is tending bar in Pittsburgh, I will be a Packers fan, rooting for my team and wearing the $200.00 jersey my wife purchased for me from the Packers pro shop. You know the one she had made with my name on it? It’s the official game day jersey the players wear. The flag that flew over Lambeau field on my 40th birthday (another gift from my wife) will be in its case in my living room, right next to its certificate of authenticity. My Brett Favre autographed helmet (yet another gift from my wife) will still be on our bookshelf, right by my two most prized possessions: the footballs my wife stood out in the rain and cold at Lambeau field and had the players and coaches autograph as they left practice in 2005 and 2006. She got Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings, and Donald Lee and William Henderson who lives here in Richmond. And she got tons more.
And if the Packers turn this season around, beat Dallas this weekend, and make an unbelievable run for the playoffs, I’ll celebrate as I've never celebrated before. But I'm not here to pump sunshine up your ass idiot, that's what I pay you to do.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Week X (that's Roman for 10)
I'll skip the long intro since you were treated to a separate Thursday night post... On to the picks!
Detroit (1-7) at Minnesota (7-1) -16.5
Two TDs plus? No problem for Minnesota coming off their bye week. The only way Minnesota doesn’t win by 20 is if they’re taking the Lions lightly, and the veteran leadership on that team won’t let that happen. Note to Ted Thompson and the Packers: that’s the sort of stuff that happens to the youngest team in the league 4 years running. Minnesota coasts: Vikings 38 Lions 17
I know the Lions are pretty bad. But I think Brad Childress is a pretty bad coach and he might be the one responsible for taking them lightly. I was wrong last week when I said Matt Stafford wasn’t playing for the Lions. He did. But he probably wishes he didn’t after throwing 5 picks in Seattle. I’d never actually put any real money on this, but I’ll take those points. Garbage TD for the cover. Vikings 31, Lions 17.
Denver (6-2) at Washington (2-6) +3.5
Denver’s lost two in a row. Nothing like a scrimmage against the Redskins to right that ship! A lot of people are jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week but Ol’ Samichlaus says “not so fast”. Just how bad are the Redskins? They arguably have the worst Offensive line in the history of the game, and there’s nothing that Jason Campbell can do to remotely cover their weaknesses. This week the Skins honor America’s Veterans at FedEx field, and I’m concerned: if there are any shell-shocked vets out there we may be looking at multiple outbreaks of hysteria as the Broncos bomb DC into oblivion. Denver 34 Washington 15
I didn’t even realize it was Veteran’s Day this week until I heard it on the radio driving in the work. Weird. You’re right though, the Skins are exactly the thing the Broncos need to recover from their recent losses. This spread seems a little low, which scares me a bit.. Kyle Orton has started to look like.. well.. Kyle Orton. It’ll be interesting to see if Denver can hold off the surging Chargers in the AFC West after such a hot start. Broncos 27, Skins 17.
Atlanta (5-3) at Carolina (3-5) +1.5
The home team gets a point plus, but I’m confused here. This line shouldn’t be this close. If you wanted to make it interesting give the Cats 5. Atlanta is a good team with a good young QB. Carolina on the other hand is beset with injuries. Last week it was linebacker Thomas Davis lost to an ACL tear. I’ll take Atlanta by 7. Falcons 27 Panthers 20
The Panthers have looked better lately. And Matty “Ice” Ryan has had four below average games in a row. Not that Jake Delhomme has been any better. If the Falcons expect to make the playoffs in a conference where the Saints are running away with the NFC South and there’s a bunch of teams hovering within Wild Card range, they need to beat bad teams. The Panthers seem like a pretty bad team. I think they get the job done. Falcons 27, Panthers 24.
Tampa Bay (1-7) at Miami (3-5) -9.5
Boy did Tampa sure look good against Green Bay last week. That rookie QB Josh Freeman looked like the second coming of Daunte Culpepper when he was good: big body, big arm. But everyone knows that win was less about Tampa and more about Green Bay. We’ll get to that in a bit. The Dolphins played as well as expected against the Patriots, and will win this game, but I’m going to take the Bucs and the points: Miami 27 Tampa Bay 20
You know, I think some of it (maybe just a little) had to be Tampa Bay. I think you might be right about their QB. At least until teams figure him out in another 2-3 weeks and he falls apart. Miami is better than their 3-5 record indicates. They should win this, but I'll take the points. Fins 27, Bucs 20.
New Orleans (8-0) at St. Louis (1-7) +13.5
The Saints will easily get to 9-0 against the lowly Rams, but can they cover almost two TDs? Last week they won by 10 against Carolina, and that might be a signal that teams are starting to figure them out. But St. Louis couldn’t keep this game close, even if they had a copy of the Saints playbook. Take New Orleans and give the points. Saints 40 St. Louis 20
That’s two failures to cover in a row by the Saints, starting with the Monday Night Fiasco. The Rams are pretty bad, especially on offense, so I don’t see how they possibly keep this close. I don’t trust the Saints enough any more to take this one in my pool (where I went 4-1 last week by the way, and now have a 3-game lead overall), but I’ll take them here. Saints 34, Rams 10.
Buffalo (3-5) at Tennessee (2-6) -6.5
Tennessee really showed some guts beating the Niners, but I’m betting against them this week. So why would anyone in their right mind take the Bills under any circumstance? They’re actually pretty good on the road: they’re 2 – 2, with one loss coming by one point against the Patriots. Buffalo is looking to move the franchise from that God forsaken city, watch them shine this week: Bills 20 Titans 17
This is true that the Titans have looked better lately. But they were also whalloped by the Patriots not too long ago. Seems like a large spread for an underachieving 2-6 team. Shockingly, I have to say it looks like Vince Young has given them some fresh legs and new optimism. You know, I’m going to lay the points and say that the Titans are getting closer to that excellent team from last year than the 0-6 team that started this season. Titans 27, Bills 20.
Cincinnati (6-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2) -7.5
Pittsburgh has been steadily improving as the season has gone on, and looking at their schedule don’t be surprised if they run the table the rest of the way. Of course, the Bengals have become the leagues little darlings, and I really like what’s happening in that God forsaken town. But the Bengals are not yet in the Steelers class. 7.5 is a lot of points, but I’m going to bite. I’ll take the Stealers lay the points: Pittsburgh 26 Cincinnati 17
Taking the Bengals last week seemed like the easiest pick on the board. And no matter what my partner says about the city of Cincinatti or their chilli, I’m one of those who believes in the Bengals this year. Their defense has quietly turned some high draft picks into a solid unit. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco are having fun. And even former first round apparent bust Cedric Benson (who was run out of Chicago due to shady off-the-field happenings) seems to have cleaned up his act and is contributing. (He’s 2nd in the league in rushing yards, by the way. Ahead of Adrian Peterson. Pop quiz: Without looking it up, who’s 1st?) Anyways, I’d like to thank Samichlaus for picking up the “Stealers” spelling in his own analysis of this game, and I’m taking Cinci to win outright. Bengals 27, Stealers 24.
Jacksonville (4-4) at NY Jets (4-4) -6.5
Richmond was proud to announce that a major league AA team would be playing in the city next year. A franchise from Connecticut affiliated with the San Francisco Giants would move to Richmond, and the name chosen for the new franchise would be “The Richmond Flying Squirrels”. I wondered why they chose that name. After all, we certainly have squirrels here (there’s a whole family of them living in our sugar maple), but they are of the “rat with a bushy tail” variety, and not of the “Rocket J. Squirrel from Rocky and Bullwinkle” flying variety. It was only until a friend pointed me to urbandictionary.com and suggested I look up “flying squirrel” that it began to make sense. I can see it now: every 20 something with a dirty mind (and that would be all of them) is going to want to own a “Flying Squirrel” shirt or hat. Just like I’m sure that every 20 something in New York probably owns a “Dirty Sanchez” Jets jersey or cap. Cripes. I had to explain a “dirty sanchez” to my wife last week, right before we looked up a “flying squirrel”. It was another one of those “I so apologize on behalf of my gender” moments… I’ll take the Jets and give the points. Jets 24 Jaguars 17
Okay, so you got me. I had to look up “flying squirrel” as well. I’m sorry I did. How the hell did they get that name approved? And yes, I saw a photo from a Jets game of two people standing next to each other with #6 jerseys on. The jersey on the left said “Dirty” and the one on the right said “Sanchez” and I’m sure they’re not the only ones. As far as this game.. Wow, both teams kinda suck. After much hype and excitement early in the season with fast starts by both the Giants and Jets, the mood has crashed down to reality in recent weeks. (Although the Yankees World Series win lifted spirits temporarily…) Copy and paste time: If the Jets expect to make the playoffs in a conference where the Patriots are running away with the AFC East and there’s a bunch of teams hovering within Wild Card range, they need to beat bad teams. The Jaguars seem like a pretty bad team. I think they get the job done. Jets 29, Jaguars 16.
Kansas City (1-7) at Oakland (2-6) -1.5
Yoiks and away. Chiefs 20 Raiders 13
This week I saw a Raiders player quoted that they have the talent to win the remaining 8 games and make the playoffs. Someone needs to check the water in Oakland for LSD. Seriously. Chiefs 23, Raiders 20.
Philadelphia (5-3) at San Diego (5-3) -2.5
The Eagles came down to earth last week against the Cowboys, and although I’m not willing to get on the Dallas bandwagon quite yet, I will say this: the Eagles were a little over rated in Ol’ Samichlaus’s eyes. This is quite possibly the result of working with some die-hard Iggles fans on my last project. I mean, that level of hype eventually rubs off on even the thick headed of half-Calabrese. It’s ok, I can do that joke: Dad’s family is Calabrese. Anyway, I don’t think that the Chargers are as good as the Eagles, but I’m going against my judgment. I’ll take west coast at home and give the 2.5. Chargers 27 Eagles 23
The Chargers have gotten a bit hot. The Eagles have gotten a bit cold. I’m going to say the Eagles flying all the way across the country after a tough Monday night loss to the Cowboys is going to leave them a bit hungover. McNabb is due for an absolute stinker. Like a 5 turnover stinker. Chargers 31, Eagles 20.
Seattle (3-5) at Arizona (5-3) -8.5
Arizona recently has had Seattle’s number and this week is no exception. Considering they were able to stone the Seahawks in Seattle, I can’t imagine what this one will look like. Granted the Seahawks should be fired up, but their woes have been well documented in this blog. I’m putting my money on the Cardinals: Arizona 31 Seattle 10
Well, big difference. Last time around Seattle had their 4th string LT playing and 3rd string LG and the Cardinals took advantage by blitzing all day. Hasselbeck didn’t have any time whatsoever, and Seattle fell in a big 14-0 hole early after the Cardinals took the opening kickoff and scored, and then on the ensuing kickoff, managed to drop the kick between the wedge and returners to recover a non-pooch onsides kick. It was pretty much over 5 minutes into the game. This time, Seattle is as healthy as they’ve been all season. The offensive line will have their starters back (well, aside from Walter Jones who is done for the year, but Sean Locklear is much better than the dude who played last time), so Hasselbeck should have plenty of time. It’s always about getting pressure on Warner. Everyone knows it though, so Arizona schemes to protect him. One last point – Seattle did an excellent job shutting down and frustrating Calvin Johnson last week. If they can do even half of that against Larry Fitzgerald, they have a shot. All that said, it’s reverse jinx time! If Seattle loses this game, their season is over. (3 games back in the division and Arizona with the tie-breaker, so effectively 4 games back with 7 to play.) They’ll be the more desperate team. Do they have the talent to make that desperation count? Maybe, but I don’t have much faith. Cardinals 34, Seahawks 23.
Dallas (6-2) at Green Bay (4-4) +2.5
A sense of desperation has fallen on Green Bay since the loss to Tampa. On Monday, Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote a column titled “It’s time to talk firings”. Nick Barnett tweeted after the game “Dissapointed!!! That's all I can say!!! But regardless how hard we will be beat up by media we will continue to work as hard as we must” By the way, I decided to message him back when I read this. I wrote “@NickBarnett Stop blaming the media, and stop talking about "working harder". The team gets outworked every week, and that means you. Do it.” Now the prick blocked me. Anyway, the Packers know this is it. They absolutely must win this game, but I know that’s just not really possible. The Cowpokes are going to eat them up. Still, as a peace offering to @NickBarnett I’ve decided to predict the following: The Packers win this game solely on the play of linebacker Nick Barnett, who intercepts 4 passes from Tony Romo and whom Mike McCarthy carries off the field after the game. Packers 30 Cowboys 20
Oh funny I just used the word desperate for Seattle, and here’s that theme again for Green Bay. The Packers were the only favorite I took in my pool last week, and my only loss. Ouch. Hahaha, my condolences on getting tweet-blocked (I was trying to come up with something that applied to the situation and rhymed with “cock-blocked” and the best I could come up with was “twat-blocked” which totally doesn’t work) by Nick Barnett. How crazy is technology these days? To be honest, I haven’t watched a whole lot of Packers football, but from what I’m reading Aaron Rodgers is taking too many sacks, and some are his fault. Now would be a good time to fix that problem. And just in case Mr. Nick Barnett somehow finds this site and reads this, I too am predicting a huge game for him! (Now please un-block my pal, k, thx, bye.) Packers 26, Cowboys 17.
New England (6-2) at Indianapolis (8-0) -2.5
Here is your SBS Special event. In what could be the game of the season, the Pats travel to Indy guns a blazing. I’m going out on a limb here and taking New England. Has anyone noticed besides me that although Indy is undefeated, they haven’t been dominating like they were early on? Indy’s success has been predicated on Peyton Manning, who is making a strong case for MVP #4. But New England has been playing as a cohesive unit. In other words it’s not just Tom Brady making the plays. The Pats will find just enough to control Manning and the better team will win. New England 37 Indianapolis 34
I have to say, that is one nice thing about the “weighted” schedule in the NFL. (Though it’s overblown to a great extent – only 2 games on a team’s 16 game schedule are actually determined by their previous season’s standings.. I can explain how it works sometimes if you like. But right now, every NFL team knows who they’re playing in 14 of the 16 games they have for like the next 10 years. They just don’t know when and where. But I digress.) Since the Colts and Patriots seem to have been winning their respective AFC divisions each season, they match up almost every season. And the game rarely disappoints. The two best QBs in the league (and arguably two of the top 10 all-time) going head-to-head. The Colts are unbeaten, but their defense is very banged up and they haven’t established a consistent running game. I like Brady, Welker, and Moss to pick apart the depleted Indy secondary and give the Colts their first loss. And these teams could easily meet again in the playoffs. Patriots 31, Colts 24.
Baltimore (4-4) at Cleveland (1-7)
St. Ides didn’t send me the spread on this one, so I’ll just go ahead and give you the analysis and final score and you can figure it out. Baltimore will romp in this road scrimmage. The Ravens are another one of those teams with veteran leadership that beats the snot out of weaker opponents. I have yet to see them play at the level of their opponent. Sadly this also happens when they play better teams as well: they’ve yet to elevate their game and beat a better team, but this doesn’t apply this week. The Ravens will win by 17. Baltimore 37 Cleveland 20
Sorry, it got chopped off somehow. The Browns are getting 10 and a half at home. Which would usually make me reconsider going against them. But they’re pretty frickin horrible. The latest drama is that Brady Quinn is being reinstalled as the starting QB. Well, apparently Quinn had some pretty huge contract incentives if he took 70% of the snaps this season. He won’t make it now, most likely missing by about 1 game worth of snaps while Dereck Anderson was stinking it up. Someone asked Coach Mangini (who will likely be coaching some average college team like Purdue a year from now) if he knew about the incentives, and Mangini said he didn’t. Liar! There’s evidence he knew very well, and it can easily be deduced that he purposely sat Quinn an extra game or two to miss those incentives. The Browns are a total disaster right now. Ravens 23, Browns 6.
Detroit (1-7) at Minnesota (7-1) -16.5
Two TDs plus? No problem for Minnesota coming off their bye week. The only way Minnesota doesn’t win by 20 is if they’re taking the Lions lightly, and the veteran leadership on that team won’t let that happen. Note to Ted Thompson and the Packers: that’s the sort of stuff that happens to the youngest team in the league 4 years running. Minnesota coasts: Vikings 38 Lions 17
I know the Lions are pretty bad. But I think Brad Childress is a pretty bad coach and he might be the one responsible for taking them lightly. I was wrong last week when I said Matt Stafford wasn’t playing for the Lions. He did. But he probably wishes he didn’t after throwing 5 picks in Seattle. I’d never actually put any real money on this, but I’ll take those points. Garbage TD for the cover. Vikings 31, Lions 17.
Denver (6-2) at Washington (2-6) +3.5
Denver’s lost two in a row. Nothing like a scrimmage against the Redskins to right that ship! A lot of people are jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week but Ol’ Samichlaus says “not so fast”. Just how bad are the Redskins? They arguably have the worst Offensive line in the history of the game, and there’s nothing that Jason Campbell can do to remotely cover their weaknesses. This week the Skins honor America’s Veterans at FedEx field, and I’m concerned: if there are any shell-shocked vets out there we may be looking at multiple outbreaks of hysteria as the Broncos bomb DC into oblivion. Denver 34 Washington 15
I didn’t even realize it was Veteran’s Day this week until I heard it on the radio driving in the work. Weird. You’re right though, the Skins are exactly the thing the Broncos need to recover from their recent losses. This spread seems a little low, which scares me a bit.. Kyle Orton has started to look like.. well.. Kyle Orton. It’ll be interesting to see if Denver can hold off the surging Chargers in the AFC West after such a hot start. Broncos 27, Skins 17.
Atlanta (5-3) at Carolina (3-5) +1.5
The home team gets a point plus, but I’m confused here. This line shouldn’t be this close. If you wanted to make it interesting give the Cats 5. Atlanta is a good team with a good young QB. Carolina on the other hand is beset with injuries. Last week it was linebacker Thomas Davis lost to an ACL tear. I’ll take Atlanta by 7. Falcons 27 Panthers 20
The Panthers have looked better lately. And Matty “Ice” Ryan has had four below average games in a row. Not that Jake Delhomme has been any better. If the Falcons expect to make the playoffs in a conference where the Saints are running away with the NFC South and there’s a bunch of teams hovering within Wild Card range, they need to beat bad teams. The Panthers seem like a pretty bad team. I think they get the job done. Falcons 27, Panthers 24.
Tampa Bay (1-7) at Miami (3-5) -9.5
Boy did Tampa sure look good against Green Bay last week. That rookie QB Josh Freeman looked like the second coming of Daunte Culpepper when he was good: big body, big arm. But everyone knows that win was less about Tampa and more about Green Bay. We’ll get to that in a bit. The Dolphins played as well as expected against the Patriots, and will win this game, but I’m going to take the Bucs and the points: Miami 27 Tampa Bay 20
You know, I think some of it (maybe just a little) had to be Tampa Bay. I think you might be right about their QB. At least until teams figure him out in another 2-3 weeks and he falls apart. Miami is better than their 3-5 record indicates. They should win this, but I'll take the points. Fins 27, Bucs 20.
New Orleans (8-0) at St. Louis (1-7) +13.5
The Saints will easily get to 9-0 against the lowly Rams, but can they cover almost two TDs? Last week they won by 10 against Carolina, and that might be a signal that teams are starting to figure them out. But St. Louis couldn’t keep this game close, even if they had a copy of the Saints playbook. Take New Orleans and give the points. Saints 40 St. Louis 20
That’s two failures to cover in a row by the Saints, starting with the Monday Night Fiasco. The Rams are pretty bad, especially on offense, so I don’t see how they possibly keep this close. I don’t trust the Saints enough any more to take this one in my pool (where I went 4-1 last week by the way, and now have a 3-game lead overall), but I’ll take them here. Saints 34, Rams 10.
Buffalo (3-5) at Tennessee (2-6) -6.5
Tennessee really showed some guts beating the Niners, but I’m betting against them this week. So why would anyone in their right mind take the Bills under any circumstance? They’re actually pretty good on the road: they’re 2 – 2, with one loss coming by one point against the Patriots. Buffalo is looking to move the franchise from that God forsaken city, watch them shine this week: Bills 20 Titans 17
This is true that the Titans have looked better lately. But they were also whalloped by the Patriots not too long ago. Seems like a large spread for an underachieving 2-6 team. Shockingly, I have to say it looks like Vince Young has given them some fresh legs and new optimism. You know, I’m going to lay the points and say that the Titans are getting closer to that excellent team from last year than the 0-6 team that started this season. Titans 27, Bills 20.
Cincinnati (6-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2) -7.5
Pittsburgh has been steadily improving as the season has gone on, and looking at their schedule don’t be surprised if they run the table the rest of the way. Of course, the Bengals have become the leagues little darlings, and I really like what’s happening in that God forsaken town. But the Bengals are not yet in the Steelers class. 7.5 is a lot of points, but I’m going to bite. I’ll take the Stealers lay the points: Pittsburgh 26 Cincinnati 17
Taking the Bengals last week seemed like the easiest pick on the board. And no matter what my partner says about the city of Cincinatti or their chilli, I’m one of those who believes in the Bengals this year. Their defense has quietly turned some high draft picks into a solid unit. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco are having fun. And even former first round apparent bust Cedric Benson (who was run out of Chicago due to shady off-the-field happenings) seems to have cleaned up his act and is contributing. (He’s 2nd in the league in rushing yards, by the way. Ahead of Adrian Peterson. Pop quiz: Without looking it up, who’s 1st?) Anyways, I’d like to thank Samichlaus for picking up the “Stealers” spelling in his own analysis of this game, and I’m taking Cinci to win outright. Bengals 27, Stealers 24.
Jacksonville (4-4) at NY Jets (4-4) -6.5
Richmond was proud to announce that a major league AA team would be playing in the city next year. A franchise from Connecticut affiliated with the San Francisco Giants would move to Richmond, and the name chosen for the new franchise would be “The Richmond Flying Squirrels”. I wondered why they chose that name. After all, we certainly have squirrels here (there’s a whole family of them living in our sugar maple), but they are of the “rat with a bushy tail” variety, and not of the “Rocket J. Squirrel from Rocky and Bullwinkle” flying variety. It was only until a friend pointed me to urbandictionary.com and suggested I look up “flying squirrel” that it began to make sense. I can see it now: every 20 something with a dirty mind (and that would be all of them) is going to want to own a “Flying Squirrel” shirt or hat. Just like I’m sure that every 20 something in New York probably owns a “Dirty Sanchez” Jets jersey or cap. Cripes. I had to explain a “dirty sanchez” to my wife last week, right before we looked up a “flying squirrel”. It was another one of those “I so apologize on behalf of my gender” moments… I’ll take the Jets and give the points. Jets 24 Jaguars 17
Okay, so you got me. I had to look up “flying squirrel” as well. I’m sorry I did. How the hell did they get that name approved? And yes, I saw a photo from a Jets game of two people standing next to each other with #6 jerseys on. The jersey on the left said “Dirty” and the one on the right said “Sanchez” and I’m sure they’re not the only ones. As far as this game.. Wow, both teams kinda suck. After much hype and excitement early in the season with fast starts by both the Giants and Jets, the mood has crashed down to reality in recent weeks. (Although the Yankees World Series win lifted spirits temporarily…) Copy and paste time: If the Jets expect to make the playoffs in a conference where the Patriots are running away with the AFC East and there’s a bunch of teams hovering within Wild Card range, they need to beat bad teams. The Jaguars seem like a pretty bad team. I think they get the job done. Jets 29, Jaguars 16.
Kansas City (1-7) at Oakland (2-6) -1.5
Yoiks and away. Chiefs 20 Raiders 13
This week I saw a Raiders player quoted that they have the talent to win the remaining 8 games and make the playoffs. Someone needs to check the water in Oakland for LSD. Seriously. Chiefs 23, Raiders 20.
Philadelphia (5-3) at San Diego (5-3) -2.5
The Eagles came down to earth last week against the Cowboys, and although I’m not willing to get on the Dallas bandwagon quite yet, I will say this: the Eagles were a little over rated in Ol’ Samichlaus’s eyes. This is quite possibly the result of working with some die-hard Iggles fans on my last project. I mean, that level of hype eventually rubs off on even the thick headed of half-Calabrese. It’s ok, I can do that joke: Dad’s family is Calabrese. Anyway, I don’t think that the Chargers are as good as the Eagles, but I’m going against my judgment. I’ll take west coast at home and give the 2.5. Chargers 27 Eagles 23
The Chargers have gotten a bit hot. The Eagles have gotten a bit cold. I’m going to say the Eagles flying all the way across the country after a tough Monday night loss to the Cowboys is going to leave them a bit hungover. McNabb is due for an absolute stinker. Like a 5 turnover stinker. Chargers 31, Eagles 20.
Seattle (3-5) at Arizona (5-3) -8.5
Arizona recently has had Seattle’s number and this week is no exception. Considering they were able to stone the Seahawks in Seattle, I can’t imagine what this one will look like. Granted the Seahawks should be fired up, but their woes have been well documented in this blog. I’m putting my money on the Cardinals: Arizona 31 Seattle 10
Well, big difference. Last time around Seattle had their 4th string LT playing and 3rd string LG and the Cardinals took advantage by blitzing all day. Hasselbeck didn’t have any time whatsoever, and Seattle fell in a big 14-0 hole early after the Cardinals took the opening kickoff and scored, and then on the ensuing kickoff, managed to drop the kick between the wedge and returners to recover a non-pooch onsides kick. It was pretty much over 5 minutes into the game. This time, Seattle is as healthy as they’ve been all season. The offensive line will have their starters back (well, aside from Walter Jones who is done for the year, but Sean Locklear is much better than the dude who played last time), so Hasselbeck should have plenty of time. It’s always about getting pressure on Warner. Everyone knows it though, so Arizona schemes to protect him. One last point – Seattle did an excellent job shutting down and frustrating Calvin Johnson last week. If they can do even half of that against Larry Fitzgerald, they have a shot. All that said, it’s reverse jinx time! If Seattle loses this game, their season is over. (3 games back in the division and Arizona with the tie-breaker, so effectively 4 games back with 7 to play.) They’ll be the more desperate team. Do they have the talent to make that desperation count? Maybe, but I don’t have much faith. Cardinals 34, Seahawks 23.
Dallas (6-2) at Green Bay (4-4) +2.5
A sense of desperation has fallen on Green Bay since the loss to Tampa. On Monday, Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote a column titled “It’s time to talk firings”. Nick Barnett tweeted after the game “Dissapointed!!! That's all I can say!!! But regardless how hard we will be beat up by media we will continue to work as hard as we must” By the way, I decided to message him back when I read this. I wrote “@NickBarnett Stop blaming the media, and stop talking about "working harder". The team gets outworked every week, and that means you. Do it.” Now the prick blocked me. Anyway, the Packers know this is it. They absolutely must win this game, but I know that’s just not really possible. The Cowpokes are going to eat them up. Still, as a peace offering to @NickBarnett I’ve decided to predict the following: The Packers win this game solely on the play of linebacker Nick Barnett, who intercepts 4 passes from Tony Romo and whom Mike McCarthy carries off the field after the game. Packers 30 Cowboys 20
Oh funny I just used the word desperate for Seattle, and here’s that theme again for Green Bay. The Packers were the only favorite I took in my pool last week, and my only loss. Ouch. Hahaha, my condolences on getting tweet-blocked (I was trying to come up with something that applied to the situation and rhymed with “cock-blocked” and the best I could come up with was “twat-blocked” which totally doesn’t work) by Nick Barnett. How crazy is technology these days? To be honest, I haven’t watched a whole lot of Packers football, but from what I’m reading Aaron Rodgers is taking too many sacks, and some are his fault. Now would be a good time to fix that problem. And just in case Mr. Nick Barnett somehow finds this site and reads this, I too am predicting a huge game for him! (Now please un-block my pal, k, thx, bye.) Packers 26, Cowboys 17.
New England (6-2) at Indianapolis (8-0) -2.5
Here is your SBS Special event. In what could be the game of the season, the Pats travel to Indy guns a blazing. I’m going out on a limb here and taking New England. Has anyone noticed besides me that although Indy is undefeated, they haven’t been dominating like they were early on? Indy’s success has been predicated on Peyton Manning, who is making a strong case for MVP #4. But New England has been playing as a cohesive unit. In other words it’s not just Tom Brady making the plays. The Pats will find just enough to control Manning and the better team will win. New England 37 Indianapolis 34
I have to say, that is one nice thing about the “weighted” schedule in the NFL. (Though it’s overblown to a great extent – only 2 games on a team’s 16 game schedule are actually determined by their previous season’s standings.. I can explain how it works sometimes if you like. But right now, every NFL team knows who they’re playing in 14 of the 16 games they have for like the next 10 years. They just don’t know when and where. But I digress.) Since the Colts and Patriots seem to have been winning their respective AFC divisions each season, they match up almost every season. And the game rarely disappoints. The two best QBs in the league (and arguably two of the top 10 all-time) going head-to-head. The Colts are unbeaten, but their defense is very banged up and they haven’t established a consistent running game. I like Brady, Welker, and Moss to pick apart the depleted Indy secondary and give the Colts their first loss. And these teams could easily meet again in the playoffs. Patriots 31, Colts 24.
Baltimore (4-4) at Cleveland (1-7)
St. Ides didn’t send me the spread on this one, so I’ll just go ahead and give you the analysis and final score and you can figure it out. Baltimore will romp in this road scrimmage. The Ravens are another one of those teams with veteran leadership that beats the snot out of weaker opponents. I have yet to see them play at the level of their opponent. Sadly this also happens when they play better teams as well: they’ve yet to elevate their game and beat a better team, but this doesn’t apply this week. The Ravens will win by 17. Baltimore 37 Cleveland 20
Sorry, it got chopped off somehow. The Browns are getting 10 and a half at home. Which would usually make me reconsider going against them. But they’re pretty frickin horrible. The latest drama is that Brady Quinn is being reinstalled as the starting QB. Well, apparently Quinn had some pretty huge contract incentives if he took 70% of the snaps this season. He won’t make it now, most likely missing by about 1 game worth of snaps while Dereck Anderson was stinking it up. Someone asked Coach Mangini (who will likely be coaching some average college team like Purdue a year from now) if he knew about the incentives, and Mangini said he didn’t. Liar! There’s evidence he knew very well, and it can easily be deduced that he purposely sat Quinn an extra game or two to miss those incentives. The Browns are a total disaster right now. Ravens 23, Browns 6.
Thursday night football
For those of you waiting with with pee pees in hand for our take on the Thursday night game, I've decided to go ahead and post mine. Really about 5 hours ago I sent it to St. Ides with the promise that I'd have the rest of the week's picks done in "about an hour". But alas, several things have cropped up today. First of all, job one around the Samichlaus household right now is to secure one job (don't you just looove that clever play on words???), and believe or not Samichlaus is pursuing a few sweet opportunities. Second, as my beautiful wife pointed out, diabetes doesn't take days off when the weather is bad, so off I went to take my daily walk in the midst of the worst nor'easter the south has seen since Hurricane Gaston decided to come and stay for a few hours one afternoon. But I'm back and relatively dry, and so without further adeiu here is my prediction for tonights game
...and yes the link us safe.
Chicago (4-4) at San Francisco (3-5) -3.5
The Bears keep making me look bad. Why I keep picking them I have no idea, so this week I’m not picking them no way, no how. Meanwhile the Niners also have a way of confounding me, but I really really like them this week. QB controversy or no QB controversy this game comes down to coaching, and Lovie Smith has lost the Bears. Some online rag was drawing comparisions between Lovie and Mike McCarthy. Honestly, I had no idea things had deteriorated that far in Chicago. On top of all this, NFL Network has been running non stop 49rs highlights all day on "America's Game". Get the picture? Niners 31 Bears 17
...and yes the link us safe.
Chicago (4-4) at San Francisco (3-5) -3.5
The Bears keep making me look bad. Why I keep picking them I have no idea, so this week I’m not picking them no way, no how. Meanwhile the Niners also have a way of confounding me, but I really really like them this week. QB controversy or no QB controversy this game comes down to coaching, and Lovie Smith has lost the Bears. Some online rag was drawing comparisions between Lovie and Mike McCarthy. Honestly, I had no idea things had deteriorated that far in Chicago. On top of all this, NFL Network has been running non stop 49rs highlights all day on "America's Game". Get the picture? Niners 31 Bears 17
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Always practice safe hex
This morning I saw that someone had commented on a post from three years ago. The comment read as follows:
A little off topic, Guys... I have a question. Last weekend I looked at this site:
[url=http://www.rivalspot.com]Rivalspot.com - Xbox tournaments for money[/url]
They say you can play online NCAA Basketball game tournaments on any console for cash... had anyone tried that before? Looks like a cool idea...
Are there any other sites where you can play sports games for real moneys? I Googled and found only Bringit.com and Worldgaming.com but it looks these guys don't specialize in sport gamez. Any suggestions.
Kids, whatever you do, never ever click on a link that has not been approved by either St. Ides or myself. That means don't click on links in comments unless we tell you it's safe!
I don't know who posted this, or where that link goes to, but I'm imaging this is not someone really interested in the answer to that question. However, St. Ides and I are flattered that the amount of spam we are receiving is increasing. Our little blog is once again getting noticed!
However in the event that this post came from a legitimate reader, and there is like a 2% chance that someone reading a blog post from three years ago at 2:32 AM is legit, I decided to respond. Well, you know where to click if you'd like to read it...
So here was my response:
Yes: Save your money, stay in school, don't do drugs, quit drinking, get in shape, make your decision for Christ, stop cheating when you golf, and for goodness sakes stop slapping your pee pee like you're 14 or something...
A little off topic, Guys... I have a question. Last weekend I looked at this site:
[url=http://www.rivalspot.com]Rivalspot.com - Xbox tournaments for money[/url]
They say you can play online NCAA Basketball game tournaments on any console for cash... had anyone tried that before? Looks like a cool idea...
Are there any other sites where you can play sports games for real moneys? I Googled and found only Bringit.com and Worldgaming.com but it looks these guys don't specialize in sport gamez. Any suggestions.
Kids, whatever you do, never ever click on a link that has not been approved by either St. Ides or myself. That means don't click on links in comments unless we tell you it's safe!
I don't know who posted this, or where that link goes to, but I'm imaging this is not someone really interested in the answer to that question. However, St. Ides and I are flattered that the amount of spam we are receiving is increasing. Our little blog is once again getting noticed!
However in the event that this post came from a legitimate reader, and there is like a 2% chance that someone reading a blog post from three years ago at 2:32 AM is legit, I decided to respond. Well, you know where to click if you'd like to read it...
So here was my response:
Yes: Save your money, stay in school, don't do drugs, quit drinking, get in shape, make your decision for Christ, stop cheating when you golf, and for goodness sakes stop slapping your pee pee like you're 14 or something...
Friday, November 6, 2009
Week 9 - In Two Acts
So once again Ol’ Samichlaus finds himself the victim of the economic downturn. I was officially laid off on Monday after two years of dutiful service to my employer. But worry not dear reader: we’ve got great plans here at the SBS Complex, and we’re excited about the future! There’s some exciting things in the works and Samichlaus predicts a better job is just around the bend… Now let’s hope my economic prognostications are better than some of my recent football prognostications!
How bout them Yankees? About time spending all that money finally paid off I guess. I've been falling behind on tallying our wins losses, so I honestly I have no idea how I'm doing over here. I'm still in first place overall in my pick'em pool, despite that gutwrenching Saints loss on Monday night. Time to catch up on the win/loss totals:
Week 5:
Samichlaus: 5-9
St.Ides: 5-9
Week 6:
Samichlaus: 7-7
St.Ides: 7-7
Week 7:
Samichlaus: 8-5
St.Ides: 7-6
Week 8:
St.Ides: 7-6
Samichlaus: 6-7
Total:
Samichlaus: 62-54
St.Ides: 59-57
Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4) -6.5
So what does last week mean for the Jaguars? They gave the Titans their first win. Does it mean the Jaguars are really THAT bad, or the Titans may have gotten their mojo back from last year and are good again? I have no idea. The Chiefs are pretty bad, but might have some life in them with a new RB taking over for the aging Larry Johnson, who's been suspended for tweeting and muttering "faggot" and "gay" a few times after their last loss. And Jeff Garcia wasn't even in the room! I'll take the points.
Jacksonville shouldn’t have any problems with KC after the ass whoopin’ they took last week against the Titans. It’s been up and down all year for the Jags, and this is an up week. My God, how did the Seahawks beat these guys 41-0? Meanwhile it’s been almost all down for KC, who have little to offer against Jacksonville. Jags 31 Chiefs 24
Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3) -3.5
How unpredictable is the NFL? The Cardinals go into NY and whup on the Giants, and then come home and lay an egg against the Panthers. Parity may be quickly fading away this year (5 more games this week with double-digit spreads), but the inconsistency between these two teams provide a glimmer of hope that it can return. I'm going to guess that Kurt Warner doesn't do too well in the cold of Chicago this week and the Bears are able to pressure him. Arizona still doesn't have much of a running game. What's really scary about the NFC West is that as bad as Seattle has been this year, if the Cardinals lose here and the Seahawks beats Detroit in Seattle, they'll only be 1 game out of first place at 3-5. That's pretty nuts. Bears 23, Cardinals 17.
This has the potential to be a good game, but I give up trying to figure these teams out. Soon as I get on the Cardinal bandwagon last week, they stink up the field against the Panthers. THE PANTHERS! I see the Bears having an easy time, so long as they can get Kurt Warner flustered, and I don’t think that will be a challenge for the Bears. Chicago 27 Arizona 17
Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7) +10.5
The battle of the bays! The Packers really disappointed me by letting Favre come out ahead last week. The good news is the Bucs are pretty frickin bad. Though 10 and a half is a hell of a lot to give to a home team. I wish I had more to say about this game, but yeah, the Packers are probably a borderline playoff team at this point, and they need to beat up on the lower-end teams if they want to sneak in. Packers 29, Bucs 17.
The Packers have proven they are at best a mediocre team so far. When faced with good competition, they are beaten by breakdowns on special teams and mental errors (such as Johnny Jolly’s ill advised head butting during the Vikings game). However when faced with poor competition, the Pack has dominated, and that’s what’s going to happen this week. Tampa is always a fun place for the Packers to visit as the crowd is usually 60 – 40 Bucs to Packers fans. I like the Pack with an easy win. Green Bay 34 Tampa Bay 10
Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3) -11.5
Goddamn Falcons and that goddamn field goal. The Skins are bad, but I'm taking the points. And yes, it's likely because I'm pissed at the Falcons and not because of my real feelings on the game. Falcons 27, Skins 20.
I used to eat at a BBQ place in Bethpage, NY called “Zorn’s Chicken”, and every time I see Jim Zorn with that deer in the headlights look, I’m reminded of those tasty days gone by. There are two reasons why the point spread is only 11.5. First, the Skins are coming off a bye week and second, they tend to play better against better teams. But I’m not taking the bait: I like Atlanta by 13, oh and check this out: http://www.zornscaterers.com/ordereze/default.aspx Falcons 27 Redskins 14
Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2) -10.5
The smack-talking has begun. This should be an interesting game, as divisional games often are. The Dolphins are 3-0 against the AFC East (2 wins over the Jets, 1 over the Bills), and 0-4 outside the division. After a slow start, the Patriots are beginning to look like their old selves again. I'm going to say that the wild cat gives the Patriots just enough trouble for the Fins to keep it close. Patriots 31, Dolphins 27.
Here’s a game that could either be very close, or a complete Patriots blow out. The Pats are coming off a bye so they are rested and that bodes well for them. But I like Miami in this game. Oh, not to win of course. Ol Samichlaus ain’t that stupid. Miami rises to the occasion and keeps it close enough to warrant the points in a high scoring game: Patriots 37 Dolphins 34
Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2) +2.5
As a co-worker was in my office on Tuesday morning and I was explaining to him my horrible defeat the night before, I explained the pool I was in to him and showed him the website. The points hadn't been posted yet for this week at that time, but we glanced over the games. When we got to this one, he said, "Oh that'll be a good one." I said, "Yeah, I wouldn't have a clue who to pick. I think the Bengals will probably be a 2-3 point favorite at home." He said, "Really? I think it'll be more." Well, the Bengals are GETTING points. Which means either Vegas or the public don't believe in them yet. But I'm a believer. I'll take those points and feel pretty good about it. Bengals 23, Ravens 20.
Baltimore takes its crab cake eating posse to the land of crappy chili made with cinnamon, and here I will lay odds on the home dog. I like both of these teams this year, and man did the Ravens ever put the beat down on Denver last week, but it doesn’t compare to what the Bengals did to the Bears two weeks ago. A well rested Bengal team comes off the bye and beats the Ravens hands down. Bengals 31 Ravens 27
Houston (5-3) at Indianapolis (7-0) -9.5
The Colts didn't exactly blow away the Niners last week in Indy. And while the Texans will lose an important offensive weapon with TE Owen Daniels done for the year, they usually play the Colts tough. On the flip side, the Colts lost starting CB (and former Wolverine) Marlin Jackson for the year. So look for Andre Johnson to put up a big game. This could be the Colts first loss of the season if the Texans can manage to get some pressure on Manning. (Easier said than done.) I'll take almost 10. Colts 31, Texans 28.
The Colts showed some fallibility against the Niners last week and still managed to win. Houston just won’t be that much of a challenge. I see a return to double digit margins of victory for the home team Colts, as the schizophrenic Texans succumb to Peyton Manning’s aerial assault. Colts 37 Texans 14
Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0) -14.5
Effin Saints. No way am I laying two touchdowns this week after their horrible display of poor clock management and ball security. Their 9-game losing streak starts now. Panthers 37, Saints 34.
Let’s put St. Ides’ bad experience behind us and look at this game with honest and unemotional eyes. Carolina figured something out last week: take the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands and good things happen. Delhomme only threw 14 times against the Cardinals and the Panther won handily. I think they use the same formula this week against New Orleans. It’s a division rivalry and although the Saints will win, it will be closer than the line suggests. Saints 34 Cats 24
Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5) -10.5
Seattle's only two wins this year were absolute thrashings at home. Shutouts of the Rams and Jaguars, two pretty bad teams. This could be the third one. Although Calvin Johnson scares me a little bit. Really, Seattle's offense hasn't been bad this year when Hasselbeck has been in there, despite the injuries on the offensive line. The problem has been turnovers (and lack of creating them.. they're something like 25th in the league in giveaway/takeaway +/-), the defense not getting enough pressure on the opposing QB, and allowing 3rd down conversions against. Maybe I'm crazy, but if this team can get a few offensive linemen healthy and start playing a bit more consistently on defense, I still think they can maybe go on a run and win the NFC West. After all, it looks like 9-7 (or even 8-8) might be enough to win that division this year. If they somehow lose this game.. All hope is lost.... Seahawks 31, Lions 10.
No effen way Seattle doesn’t win and cover against the Lions. After losing to St. Louis, Detroit has officially trashed their season. They might not win another game. The Seahawks are a shadow of their former selves, what with injuries that rival the battle of Antietam, but even their JV squad should have no trouble with the Lions. Seattle 31 Detroit 10
Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4) -3.5
I'm not really sure what to make of the Niners. They actually stuck around in Indy last week. Frank Gore has been a beast. Their defense looks solid. But their QB situation is starting to catch up with them. The Titans woke up last week, shockingly enough once they put Vince Young in at QB. Chris Johnson is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. He and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for four 60+ TD runs last week (2 each). Four huge runs. What is this, high school football? That could happen again this week with Johnson and Gore. I'm thinking the Titans are on the rise. Titans 27, Niners 24.
San Francisco is a couple of plays away from being 5 – 2 right now, so I can’t figure out why this line is so low. I’m going with the Niners at home to bounce back after the loss to Indy. San Fran is right on the heels of the Cardinals and know that the NFC West is theirs for the taking. It’s the halfway point in the season and its time they make their move. Niners 24 Titans 20
San Diego (4-3) at NY Giants (5-3) -4.5
Man, what happened to the Giants? Started 5-0 and lost 3 in a row? Their secondary suddenly looks like a sieve. It seems teams have figured out that if they just protect their QB, this defense can be picked apart fairly easily. And Eli Manning has looked average at best. The Chargers haven't been much better really. They didn't exactly destroy the Raiders in SD last week. If the Giants really expect to be a contender, they need to start playing like one. Giants 27, Chargers 20.
The Bolts have won two in a row, while the Giants have lost their last three. Although handicapping the NFL is all about knowing when trends reverse, I’m going to stick with the trend. The Giants are in such a funk and so deep into the abyss, I’m not sure if they will ever recover. Maybe Tom Coughlin has run his course? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, I’m taking the Bolts. San Diego 31 New York 30
Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2) -3.5
You know, that 5-2 record isn't doing much to back-up my insistence that the Cowboys are overrated. But they are. No, really. And Romo? Still overrated. He overthrew passes left and right last week. Poor Roy Williams was getting booed when balls that were way behind him or four feet over his head were bouncing off his fingertips. I know it sounds empty, but the game last week against Seattle was much closer than the score indicated. A sketchy pass interference call on 3rd and long in the first half was the turning point. If the ref doesn't throw that flag, Seattle gets the ball back right before the half with a chance to take the lead. Instead, the Cowboys take it in for a touchdown a few plays later. I hate the refs sometimes. Actually, more than some times. Almost all the time. The Eagles have quietly been taking care of business, including last week's thrashing of the Giants without Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is supposed to be back this week, and the Cowboys are toast. Eagles 34, Cowboys 17.
Big test for the Cowboys, who we have consistently picked against here at SBS. Sure this is a tough division rivalry, but after what the Eagles did to the Giants last week, I’m not too worried about their ability to rise to the occasion against a division rival. As for the Cowboys and Tony Romo, their record in “big games” speaks for itself. Eagles 37 Cowboys 24
Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1) +3.5
The funny thing is that sometimes my picks on here and my picks in my pool don't match. Here's a little insight into how I work.. Basically, on Wednesday or Thursday during the day, I go into the pool website and check out the lines, and think about it for a brief amount of time, and make my "gut feeling" initial picks. Then on Thursday night or Friday morning, I write up this analysis and these picks based upon reason, logic, gut feeling, injury reports, and an overall "educated" decision about who I think will win. I thin read what Samichlaus writes, what the Sports Guy writes, a few other "professional" writers, and watch profootballtalk.com for the latest injuries and controversies going on. On Saturday night, I revisit my pool picks and make any last minute changes. 8 weeks (and 40 picks) in, I've only changed 3 or 4 games on Saturday night. The Denver/Baltimore game last week was one of them. I figured the Ravens were about due to have a good game, and the Broncos are still a bit overrated, as most of their wins have come beating up on crappy teams. While I picked the Ravens to win last week on good ol' SBS, I didn't have them covering. After further consideration, I decided they'd cover, and switched my pick. It paid off. This week? I'm going to take the Broncos and the points at home, though I think the Steelers will win. Look for the talk to begin about Kyle Orton being benched as he starts losing games for Denver. Steelers 30, Broncos 27.
Alrighty then. Denver as the home dog on Monday night? As good as I think Pittsburgh can be, I’m sticking with my theory about Denver at home. It’s hard to bet against them especially when they’re the underdog. Denver wins outright in a shocker to everyone not named Samichlau. Broncos 20 Steelers 17
How bout them Yankees? About time spending all that money finally paid off I guess. I've been falling behind on tallying our wins losses, so I honestly I have no idea how I'm doing over here. I'm still in first place overall in my pick'em pool, despite that gutwrenching Saints loss on Monday night. Time to catch up on the win/loss totals:
Week 5:
Samichlaus: 5-9
St.Ides: 5-9
Week 6:
Samichlaus: 7-7
St.Ides: 7-7
Week 7:
Samichlaus: 8-5
St.Ides: 7-6
Week 8:
St.Ides: 7-6
Samichlaus: 6-7
Total:
Samichlaus: 62-54
St.Ides: 59-57
Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4) -6.5
So what does last week mean for the Jaguars? They gave the Titans their first win. Does it mean the Jaguars are really THAT bad, or the Titans may have gotten their mojo back from last year and are good again? I have no idea. The Chiefs are pretty bad, but might have some life in them with a new RB taking over for the aging Larry Johnson, who's been suspended for tweeting and muttering "faggot" and "gay" a few times after their last loss. And Jeff Garcia wasn't even in the room! I'll take the points.
Jacksonville shouldn’t have any problems with KC after the ass whoopin’ they took last week against the Titans. It’s been up and down all year for the Jags, and this is an up week. My God, how did the Seahawks beat these guys 41-0? Meanwhile it’s been almost all down for KC, who have little to offer against Jacksonville. Jags 31 Chiefs 24
Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3) -3.5
How unpredictable is the NFL? The Cardinals go into NY and whup on the Giants, and then come home and lay an egg against the Panthers. Parity may be quickly fading away this year (5 more games this week with double-digit spreads), but the inconsistency between these two teams provide a glimmer of hope that it can return. I'm going to guess that Kurt Warner doesn't do too well in the cold of Chicago this week and the Bears are able to pressure him. Arizona still doesn't have much of a running game. What's really scary about the NFC West is that as bad as Seattle has been this year, if the Cardinals lose here and the Seahawks beats Detroit in Seattle, they'll only be 1 game out of first place at 3-5. That's pretty nuts. Bears 23, Cardinals 17.
This has the potential to be a good game, but I give up trying to figure these teams out. Soon as I get on the Cardinal bandwagon last week, they stink up the field against the Panthers. THE PANTHERS! I see the Bears having an easy time, so long as they can get Kurt Warner flustered, and I don’t think that will be a challenge for the Bears. Chicago 27 Arizona 17
Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7) +10.5
The battle of the bays! The Packers really disappointed me by letting Favre come out ahead last week. The good news is the Bucs are pretty frickin bad. Though 10 and a half is a hell of a lot to give to a home team. I wish I had more to say about this game, but yeah, the Packers are probably a borderline playoff team at this point, and they need to beat up on the lower-end teams if they want to sneak in. Packers 29, Bucs 17.
The Packers have proven they are at best a mediocre team so far. When faced with good competition, they are beaten by breakdowns on special teams and mental errors (such as Johnny Jolly’s ill advised head butting during the Vikings game). However when faced with poor competition, the Pack has dominated, and that’s what’s going to happen this week. Tampa is always a fun place for the Packers to visit as the crowd is usually 60 – 40 Bucs to Packers fans. I like the Pack with an easy win. Green Bay 34 Tampa Bay 10
Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3) -11.5
Goddamn Falcons and that goddamn field goal. The Skins are bad, but I'm taking the points. And yes, it's likely because I'm pissed at the Falcons and not because of my real feelings on the game. Falcons 27, Skins 20.
I used to eat at a BBQ place in Bethpage, NY called “Zorn’s Chicken”, and every time I see Jim Zorn with that deer in the headlights look, I’m reminded of those tasty days gone by. There are two reasons why the point spread is only 11.5. First, the Skins are coming off a bye week and second, they tend to play better against better teams. But I’m not taking the bait: I like Atlanta by 13, oh and check this out: http://www.zornscaterers.com/ordereze/default.aspx Falcons 27 Redskins 14
Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2) -10.5
The smack-talking has begun. This should be an interesting game, as divisional games often are. The Dolphins are 3-0 against the AFC East (2 wins over the Jets, 1 over the Bills), and 0-4 outside the division. After a slow start, the Patriots are beginning to look like their old selves again. I'm going to say that the wild cat gives the Patriots just enough trouble for the Fins to keep it close. Patriots 31, Dolphins 27.
Here’s a game that could either be very close, or a complete Patriots blow out. The Pats are coming off a bye so they are rested and that bodes well for them. But I like Miami in this game. Oh, not to win of course. Ol Samichlaus ain’t that stupid. Miami rises to the occasion and keeps it close enough to warrant the points in a high scoring game: Patriots 37 Dolphins 34
Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2) +2.5
As a co-worker was in my office on Tuesday morning and I was explaining to him my horrible defeat the night before, I explained the pool I was in to him and showed him the website. The points hadn't been posted yet for this week at that time, but we glanced over the games. When we got to this one, he said, "Oh that'll be a good one." I said, "Yeah, I wouldn't have a clue who to pick. I think the Bengals will probably be a 2-3 point favorite at home." He said, "Really? I think it'll be more." Well, the Bengals are GETTING points. Which means either Vegas or the public don't believe in them yet. But I'm a believer. I'll take those points and feel pretty good about it. Bengals 23, Ravens 20.
Baltimore takes its crab cake eating posse to the land of crappy chili made with cinnamon, and here I will lay odds on the home dog. I like both of these teams this year, and man did the Ravens ever put the beat down on Denver last week, but it doesn’t compare to what the Bengals did to the Bears two weeks ago. A well rested Bengal team comes off the bye and beats the Ravens hands down. Bengals 31 Ravens 27
Houston (5-3) at Indianapolis (7-0) -9.5
The Colts didn't exactly blow away the Niners last week in Indy. And while the Texans will lose an important offensive weapon with TE Owen Daniels done for the year, they usually play the Colts tough. On the flip side, the Colts lost starting CB (and former Wolverine) Marlin Jackson for the year. So look for Andre Johnson to put up a big game. This could be the Colts first loss of the season if the Texans can manage to get some pressure on Manning. (Easier said than done.) I'll take almost 10. Colts 31, Texans 28.
The Colts showed some fallibility against the Niners last week and still managed to win. Houston just won’t be that much of a challenge. I see a return to double digit margins of victory for the home team Colts, as the schizophrenic Texans succumb to Peyton Manning’s aerial assault. Colts 37 Texans 14
Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0) -14.5
Effin Saints. No way am I laying two touchdowns this week after their horrible display of poor clock management and ball security. Their 9-game losing streak starts now. Panthers 37, Saints 34.
Let’s put St. Ides’ bad experience behind us and look at this game with honest and unemotional eyes. Carolina figured something out last week: take the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands and good things happen. Delhomme only threw 14 times against the Cardinals and the Panther won handily. I think they use the same formula this week against New Orleans. It’s a division rivalry and although the Saints will win, it will be closer than the line suggests. Saints 34 Cats 24
Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5) -10.5
Seattle's only two wins this year were absolute thrashings at home. Shutouts of the Rams and Jaguars, two pretty bad teams. This could be the third one. Although Calvin Johnson scares me a little bit. Really, Seattle's offense hasn't been bad this year when Hasselbeck has been in there, despite the injuries on the offensive line. The problem has been turnovers (and lack of creating them.. they're something like 25th in the league in giveaway/takeaway +/-), the defense not getting enough pressure on the opposing QB, and allowing 3rd down conversions against. Maybe I'm crazy, but if this team can get a few offensive linemen healthy and start playing a bit more consistently on defense, I still think they can maybe go on a run and win the NFC West. After all, it looks like 9-7 (or even 8-8) might be enough to win that division this year. If they somehow lose this game.. All hope is lost.... Seahawks 31, Lions 10.
No effen way Seattle doesn’t win and cover against the Lions. After losing to St. Louis, Detroit has officially trashed their season. They might not win another game. The Seahawks are a shadow of their former selves, what with injuries that rival the battle of Antietam, but even their JV squad should have no trouble with the Lions. Seattle 31 Detroit 10
Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4) -3.5
I'm not really sure what to make of the Niners. They actually stuck around in Indy last week. Frank Gore has been a beast. Their defense looks solid. But their QB situation is starting to catch up with them. The Titans woke up last week, shockingly enough once they put Vince Young in at QB. Chris Johnson is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. He and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for four 60+ TD runs last week (2 each). Four huge runs. What is this, high school football? That could happen again this week with Johnson and Gore. I'm thinking the Titans are on the rise. Titans 27, Niners 24.
San Francisco is a couple of plays away from being 5 – 2 right now, so I can’t figure out why this line is so low. I’m going with the Niners at home to bounce back after the loss to Indy. San Fran is right on the heels of the Cardinals and know that the NFC West is theirs for the taking. It’s the halfway point in the season and its time they make their move. Niners 24 Titans 20
San Diego (4-3) at NY Giants (5-3) -4.5
Man, what happened to the Giants? Started 5-0 and lost 3 in a row? Their secondary suddenly looks like a sieve. It seems teams have figured out that if they just protect their QB, this defense can be picked apart fairly easily. And Eli Manning has looked average at best. The Chargers haven't been much better really. They didn't exactly destroy the Raiders in SD last week. If the Giants really expect to be a contender, they need to start playing like one. Giants 27, Chargers 20.
The Bolts have won two in a row, while the Giants have lost their last three. Although handicapping the NFL is all about knowing when trends reverse, I’m going to stick with the trend. The Giants are in such a funk and so deep into the abyss, I’m not sure if they will ever recover. Maybe Tom Coughlin has run his course? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, I’m taking the Bolts. San Diego 31 New York 30
Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2) -3.5
You know, that 5-2 record isn't doing much to back-up my insistence that the Cowboys are overrated. But they are. No, really. And Romo? Still overrated. He overthrew passes left and right last week. Poor Roy Williams was getting booed when balls that were way behind him or four feet over his head were bouncing off his fingertips. I know it sounds empty, but the game last week against Seattle was much closer than the score indicated. A sketchy pass interference call on 3rd and long in the first half was the turning point. If the ref doesn't throw that flag, Seattle gets the ball back right before the half with a chance to take the lead. Instead, the Cowboys take it in for a touchdown a few plays later. I hate the refs sometimes. Actually, more than some times. Almost all the time. The Eagles have quietly been taking care of business, including last week's thrashing of the Giants without Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is supposed to be back this week, and the Cowboys are toast. Eagles 34, Cowboys 17.
Big test for the Cowboys, who we have consistently picked against here at SBS. Sure this is a tough division rivalry, but after what the Eagles did to the Giants last week, I’m not too worried about their ability to rise to the occasion against a division rival. As for the Cowboys and Tony Romo, their record in “big games” speaks for itself. Eagles 37 Cowboys 24
Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1) +3.5
The funny thing is that sometimes my picks on here and my picks in my pool don't match. Here's a little insight into how I work.. Basically, on Wednesday or Thursday during the day, I go into the pool website and check out the lines, and think about it for a brief amount of time, and make my "gut feeling" initial picks. Then on Thursday night or Friday morning, I write up this analysis and these picks based upon reason, logic, gut feeling, injury reports, and an overall "educated" decision about who I think will win. I thin read what Samichlaus writes, what the Sports Guy writes, a few other "professional" writers, and watch profootballtalk.com for the latest injuries and controversies going on. On Saturday night, I revisit my pool picks and make any last minute changes. 8 weeks (and 40 picks) in, I've only changed 3 or 4 games on Saturday night. The Denver/Baltimore game last week was one of them. I figured the Ravens were about due to have a good game, and the Broncos are still a bit overrated, as most of their wins have come beating up on crappy teams. While I picked the Ravens to win last week on good ol' SBS, I didn't have them covering. After further consideration, I decided they'd cover, and switched my pick. It paid off. This week? I'm going to take the Broncos and the points at home, though I think the Steelers will win. Look for the talk to begin about Kyle Orton being benched as he starts losing games for Denver. Steelers 30, Broncos 27.
Alrighty then. Denver as the home dog on Monday night? As good as I think Pittsburgh can be, I’m sticking with my theory about Denver at home. It’s hard to bet against them especially when they’re the underdog. Denver wins outright in a shocker to everyone not named Samichlau. Broncos 20 Steelers 17
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Why to gamble...
In the world of Harness racing, Mack Lobell is considered by many to be the greatest trotter to ever live. Mack’s statistics are impressive to say the least: Mack Lobell had a six-year international racing career in which he won 71 of 94 starts, and retired as the fastest and richest American-bred stallion of all-time. He is still the fastest male trotter in a race and holds numerous current world records.
At two, he was voted 2-year-old Trotting Colt of the Year after setting world records on mile and half-mile tracks and winning the Breeders Crown. At three, Mack Lobell won 13 of 16 starts, including the Hambletonian, Breeders Crown and Yonkers Trot, set world records on all size tracks and was voted Horse of the Year. At four, Mack Lobell won 17 of 19 starts, including the Breeders Crown, International Trot, and Sweden's Elitlopp. He was again voted Horse of the Year. He then began a racing and breeding career in Europe in which he won 32 of his 38 European starts, setting numerous records. At age six, he became a two-time winner of the Elitlopp. After standing at stud for several seasons in Europe during his racing career, Mack Lobell is now a stallion in the United States. His early European sire results are promising and he already has 8 in 2:00 and five $100,000 winners.
And on Saturday, August 12th 1989, I won a shitload of money betting against him.
The evening started out as many evenings did in 1989: Me and my buddies Doc and Tony Ng were chowing down in Chinatown looking for some trouble to get into. I loved going to Chinatown with Tony. He claimed not to be able to speak a lick of Chinese, but when the waiter would arrive, Tony would spew forth with about 30 seconds of perfect Cantonese and finish off with “and two cokes”. Minutes later plate after plate of amazing food would arrive and we’d stuff ourselves numb. Doc, who had never been to a race track had been lobbying for a night at Yonkers, so after dinner we headed north to fulfill Doc’s wish.
We arrived at the track to find out that the evening’s program featured a race called the International Trot: a gathering of the best trotters from around the world. And there on the program was the greatest trotter of his day, Mack Lobell, scheduled to run the race. This was analogous to showing up at the ball park to find out that Lou Gehrig was starting, playing first base for your minor league franchise.
Mack was going off at some insane odds, something like 1 – 3, which meant you’d have to wager $3.00 to win $1.00. He was clearly the favorite. So as I combed the program to try to figure out who would come in second, I spotted a local horse that had just been added to the trot. Her name was Kit Lobell, and what caught me were two things. One, she was a she, and I had this silly notion that all the boys would be chasing after her. After all, I was 27, and had spent a lot of time chasing both phillies and mares myself. Second, she was a fast horse who was familiar with the track. All of the other horses had traveled from around the world and were phenomenal horses in their own right, but Kit had home field advantage. She was going off at something like 19 – 1, so I convinced Doc to wager $20.00 across the board on Kit and $20.00 across the board on Mack. That meant we each had $120.00 sunk into this race, and in 1989 that was a lot of money for Ol’ Samichlaus.
Not that it mattered: it wasn’t my money I was gambling with. See, I had a good day at the store I partnered in, and was gambling with the day’s receipts.
Maybe I shouldn’t write that part…
The race went off, and we watched as Kit and Mack headed around the track. Mack lead early on with Kit sitting on his tail, seemingly drafting the great horse, and this is how it went until they turned into the backstretch. Suddenly, Kit Lobell put on a burst and simply blew past Mack Lobell who never knew what hit him. Kit put some distance between the two and won easily. The crowd was stunned. As Doc and I leaped up and down screaming like those two guys in “Brokeback Mountain”, someone shouted to us “WHO WON???” Without missing a beat, Doc shouted back “WE DID”.
I walked away with over $400.00 cleared that evening, and afterwards me, Doc, and Tony headed into Tarrytown (where I lived) to drink the night away and toast Kit Lobell, who beat the greatest trotter of all time on a hot August night in 1989.
At two, he was voted 2-year-old Trotting Colt of the Year after setting world records on mile and half-mile tracks and winning the Breeders Crown. At three, Mack Lobell won 13 of 16 starts, including the Hambletonian, Breeders Crown and Yonkers Trot, set world records on all size tracks and was voted Horse of the Year. At four, Mack Lobell won 17 of 19 starts, including the Breeders Crown, International Trot, and Sweden's Elitlopp. He was again voted Horse of the Year. He then began a racing and breeding career in Europe in which he won 32 of his 38 European starts, setting numerous records. At age six, he became a two-time winner of the Elitlopp. After standing at stud for several seasons in Europe during his racing career, Mack Lobell is now a stallion in the United States. His early European sire results are promising and he already has 8 in 2:00 and five $100,000 winners.
And on Saturday, August 12th 1989, I won a shitload of money betting against him.
The evening started out as many evenings did in 1989: Me and my buddies Doc and Tony Ng were chowing down in Chinatown looking for some trouble to get into. I loved going to Chinatown with Tony. He claimed not to be able to speak a lick of Chinese, but when the waiter would arrive, Tony would spew forth with about 30 seconds of perfect Cantonese and finish off with “and two cokes”. Minutes later plate after plate of amazing food would arrive and we’d stuff ourselves numb. Doc, who had never been to a race track had been lobbying for a night at Yonkers, so after dinner we headed north to fulfill Doc’s wish.
We arrived at the track to find out that the evening’s program featured a race called the International Trot: a gathering of the best trotters from around the world. And there on the program was the greatest trotter of his day, Mack Lobell, scheduled to run the race. This was analogous to showing up at the ball park to find out that Lou Gehrig was starting, playing first base for your minor league franchise.
Mack was going off at some insane odds, something like 1 – 3, which meant you’d have to wager $3.00 to win $1.00. He was clearly the favorite. So as I combed the program to try to figure out who would come in second, I spotted a local horse that had just been added to the trot. Her name was Kit Lobell, and what caught me were two things. One, she was a she, and I had this silly notion that all the boys would be chasing after her. After all, I was 27, and had spent a lot of time chasing both phillies and mares myself. Second, she was a fast horse who was familiar with the track. All of the other horses had traveled from around the world and were phenomenal horses in their own right, but Kit had home field advantage. She was going off at something like 19 – 1, so I convinced Doc to wager $20.00 across the board on Kit and $20.00 across the board on Mack. That meant we each had $120.00 sunk into this race, and in 1989 that was a lot of money for Ol’ Samichlaus.
Not that it mattered: it wasn’t my money I was gambling with. See, I had a good day at the store I partnered in, and was gambling with the day’s receipts.
Maybe I shouldn’t write that part…
The race went off, and we watched as Kit and Mack headed around the track. Mack lead early on with Kit sitting on his tail, seemingly drafting the great horse, and this is how it went until they turned into the backstretch. Suddenly, Kit Lobell put on a burst and simply blew past Mack Lobell who never knew what hit him. Kit put some distance between the two and won easily. The crowd was stunned. As Doc and I leaped up and down screaming like those two guys in “Brokeback Mountain”, someone shouted to us “WHO WON???” Without missing a beat, Doc shouted back “WE DID”.
I walked away with over $400.00 cleared that evening, and afterwards me, Doc, and Tony headed into Tarrytown (where I lived) to drink the night away and toast Kit Lobell, who beat the greatest trotter of all time on a hot August night in 1989.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Why not to gamble..
Well, first let me start by saying I didn't actually lose any money. I'm in a season-long pool that includes weekly prizes, so the $200 I just missed out on would have been a prize. Now, I just had a bad feeling as soon as the Saints scored that this wasn't over... How right I was..
For those just joining us, the pool I am in has over 75 people. Each week, you pick any 5 NFL games of your choice, with the spread. There's a weekly $200 prize (that's the entry fee as well, so win one week, and you break even), and end-of-season prizes for 1st-3rd and last.
Going into Monday night, I was the only person with none wrong this week. 4/4 with the Saints -9.5 points. The Saints win and cover, I win the weekly prize. Even if they don't, I'm tied with a few other people with 4 wins, but then it comes down to the tie-breaker of combined Monday night points. I had 58, but someone had 57 and someone else had 59, so I was boxed it. It'd have to be exactly 58 points to win that way.
So when Pierre Thomas made a pretty gutsy dive into the endzone on third and goal, that put the Saints up by 11 with 3:03 left in the game. I was feeling pretty good, but not great.
Then it was one of those "everything that could go wrong, will go wrong" scenarios. Let's recount the final minutes, shall we?
1.) On first and ten, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan overthrows Tony Gonzalez by a bit, the ball hits off his hands, and lands right Saints DB Darren Sharper's hands. And the ball proceeds to get knocked away from him by another Saint defender that goes flying by. He holds onto that ball, it's basically game over.
2.) Last play before the two-minute warning, 3 plays later, after picking up a first down, Matt Ryan is stripped from behind by Saints DE Will Smith. The ball bounces forward, and a Saints defender pounces on it. Like a smart player, he doesn't try and advance the ball at all, just cradles it and lays there until a Falcon touches him down. No whistles, no indications it was an incomplete pass. Looks like Saints ball, and basically game over. But wait. Since the play started BEFORE the two-minute warning, the Falcons can challenge it. And they have one timeout remaining, so they do. While the announcers debate it a bit (and they're usually wrong anyways), I try and remain impartial. It looked like the ball was knocked out of his hand before it started coming forward, but it sorta sat there in space, so when his arm continued forward, it pushed it. I wouldn't call that "possession" when his arm was coming forward, but it's close. I'm hoping since it's "inconclusive" that the ref lets the play stand as it was called on the field. Which means Saints ball under 2 minutes, no Falcons timeouts. Game over. No such luck. The ref overturns it, saying he still had possession. Falcons ball, they keep their time out. 2 minute warning.
3.) Thank the lord for Gregg Williams. The Saints defensive coordinator has had success for several different teams, and I can see why. Instead of going into the usual Prevent defense, he's still mixing up his coverage and pass rushes, even occasionally sending blitzes at Matt Ryan. Blitzing up 11 with under 2 minutes to go? Unheard of! And it works. 3 incompletions after the non-fumble, and the Saints get the ball back on downs with 1:42 left in the game.
4.) Let's do some math, shall we? 40 second play clock. Atlanta has one timeout. So assume Atlanta uses it after 1st down, which should take about 3-5 seconds off the clock. Let's be conservative and say 3. 2nd down, even if they snap it with 2 seconds left on the play clock, the play itself and whistles and whatnot and spotting it will take at least 2 more seconds, so that's 40 seconds gone. 3rd down? Same thing -40 seconds. So that's MINIMUM 83 seconds. That's 1:23. Which means Saints punt with 19 seconds left. The punt itself should take a good 5-8 seconds minimum, so the Falcons, best case scenario, will have the ball at their own 20-30 with under 10 seconds. If Matt Ryan can even reach the end zone from there (and no clue if he could or not), it'd take a miracle play. And they're still down 2 scores at this point, so do they even bother? More likely than not, the clock expires before then. Got all that? Good.
5.) 1:42 on the clock. First down - run play up the middle. For some unknown reason, as the play ends the Saints center is day dreaming and looking up in the sky as two 300 pound linemen roll into him. The hit him in the knee, he goes down like a sack of potatoes. 1:37 on the clock. Injury within the final two minutes, the Saints are forced to take a timeout. Forced! That injury just saves the Falcons their own timeout, and 40 seconds on the clock. Oh boy.
6.) No need to panic, right? The Saints can still run the ball twice and run off 40+ seconds before punting from around midfield and pinning Atlanta deep. Right? 2nd down, run up the middle for no gain. Atlanta uses their final timeout. 1:31 remaining.
7.) The last two plays took 5 and 6 seconds each, so now the Saints can run it on 3rd down and Atlanta cannot stop the clock. That will take it down to about 46 seconds. I'm wondering why they don't just take a knee here as they hike the ball. Handoff to Mike Bell, up the middle into a mass of humanity. He's down, the clock keeps ticking. But wait, why the hell are some Falcons signaling their ball? Wishful thinking, it must be. No way he wasn't down. But sure enough, with only one arm on the ball, he gets stripped as he keeps pumping his legs and going nowhere into the pile. Fumble. Atlanta ball. But wait, booth review. Maybe it'll go my way this time. Nope, he was lying on some people, his ass, nor his knees, nor his hips, nor his empty fucking skull touched the ground before he was stripped. Great. Scratch Mike Bell off my Christmas card list. The clock is set to 1:23.
8.) Gregg Williams remains determined to not go into prevent, and Saints DE Will Smith is still playing like a man possessed. Short pass to Gonzalez across the middle. Tick tick tick.. They line up and spike it at the Saints 39. 1:02 left.
9.) The announcers are talking about how they might kick a field goal first if they're in range, since they need two scores anyways. I've heard announcers talk about this many many times before. I can't remember actually seeing a team do that. Gruden is the voice of reason, explaining how it'd be much nicer to get the TD first while you're down here so that you have less distance to go for the game-winning field goal. I start to pray that the Falcons coaches feel the same way.
10.) Pass down the sideline from Matt Ryan to Michael Jenkins. He's pushed out of bounds as he catches it. Incomplete. But wait. Here we go again. Booth review. As they show the replay on TV, the announcers all agree it's a completion. NO FUCKING WAY!! I shout angrily at the TV. There's NO evidence that the big toe on his left foot touched in bounds. It sure as hell looks like it's in the air, almost forced there by his right foot immediately behind it. There's no sign of the dirt or charlk or anything being kicked up by that foot. No grass movement. Nothing. It was very similar to the game-winning Stealers catch last Super Bowl actually. The difference there is it was ruled a catch on the field. This one was ruled incomplete. But, again, the fucking replay screws me. Somehow the ref rules that a catch. I don't see it. I'm fuming now.
11.) 1st down at the Saints 23, 52 seconds left. Sack! Tick tick tick tick tick... It IS field goal range, but they're at the 23, pretty good shot at the end zone from here. Get the TD first.
12.) Ryan spikes the ball with 37 seconds left. 3rd down.
13.) Short checkdown pass to the 22. 4th and 9. They'll go for it, right? Wrong. Apparently someone does believe in the "kick it first" philosophy. Son of a bitch.
14.) It's up, and it's good. I am now punching the pillows on my living room couch, gritting my teeth, and yelling "Fuck fuck fuck!" in a loud whisper. Saints 35, Falcons 27. That's only 8 points, now a point and a half shy of covering.
15.) I tell myself "Okay, well now they're going to try the onsides kick, and I HAVE seen a receiving team take that to the house once or twice. So I'm not totally and completely dead yet." It's a lie. I know it, you know it, everyone does. But I still don't turn off the TV just yet.
16.) The Falcons recover the onside kick with 26 seconds left. Good. Now I'm rooting for them to win the game outright so the Saints lose. I'm already fucked, I'd might as well see the team that fucked me get fucked too, right?
17.) No such luck. A short pass, and a Hail Mary into the end zone. Oh sure, THIS time Darren Sharper holds on to the interception. Thanks for nothing. Dickweed.
So, to summarize:
- Not one, not two, but THREE replays actually overturned plays that would have significantly increased my odds of winning. Two of which seemed very questionable about whether there was "indisputable" evidence. Fucking a, I'm disputing it, so that makes it not indisputable right there. That referee can blow me. In fact, I'm going to look up right now who it was. If it was that Leavy guy from Super Bowl XL, I might just have to do something drastic.. Nope, it was some guy named Jeff Triplette. Well, he's on my shit list now.
- A freak knee injury stopping the clock because the fucking center decided to stargaze and not pay attention to the bodies around him falling towards his legs. J. Goodwin. Hands on his hips, humming to himself, "La la la la la la" as large violent human beings crash around him. He's on my shitlist now too.
- On 3rd down in an obvious situation, Mike Bell is running with only one hand on the ball. He has it tucked under his arm like he's the Heisman fucking Trophy or something, like he's going to be able to use his free hand to stiff-arm all 11 opposing players trying to tackle him. I'm sad the Falcons didn't pull this one out after that blunder, because I would have loved to see him get cut tomorrow. Are NFL players really this dumb? Couldn't Drew Brees or an offensive lineman or someone remind him, "Hey, hang onto the ball, numnuts" before breaking the huddle? Unbelievable.
- And last but not least, down 11 points with 31 seconds to go, the Falcons actually kick a field goal rather than going for it. It was 4th down, so I guess I can't blame them TOO TOO much. But still. It's almost like they kicked it just to get under the spread.
Anyways, the bottomline is I don't think I'll be picking the fucking Saints again this season. In fact, I hope they go on a 9-game losing streak and miss the playoffs.
Thanks for reading. Typing this out has allowed me to stop shaking with rage, and I believe I can now fall asleep. Night! Fuck you Mike Bell!
For those just joining us, the pool I am in has over 75 people. Each week, you pick any 5 NFL games of your choice, with the spread. There's a weekly $200 prize (that's the entry fee as well, so win one week, and you break even), and end-of-season prizes for 1st-3rd and last.
Going into Monday night, I was the only person with none wrong this week. 4/4 with the Saints -9.5 points. The Saints win and cover, I win the weekly prize. Even if they don't, I'm tied with a few other people with 4 wins, but then it comes down to the tie-breaker of combined Monday night points. I had 58, but someone had 57 and someone else had 59, so I was boxed it. It'd have to be exactly 58 points to win that way.
So when Pierre Thomas made a pretty gutsy dive into the endzone on third and goal, that put the Saints up by 11 with 3:03 left in the game. I was feeling pretty good, but not great.
Then it was one of those "everything that could go wrong, will go wrong" scenarios. Let's recount the final minutes, shall we?
1.) On first and ten, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan overthrows Tony Gonzalez by a bit, the ball hits off his hands, and lands right Saints DB Darren Sharper's hands. And the ball proceeds to get knocked away from him by another Saint defender that goes flying by. He holds onto that ball, it's basically game over.
2.) Last play before the two-minute warning, 3 plays later, after picking up a first down, Matt Ryan is stripped from behind by Saints DE Will Smith. The ball bounces forward, and a Saints defender pounces on it. Like a smart player, he doesn't try and advance the ball at all, just cradles it and lays there until a Falcon touches him down. No whistles, no indications it was an incomplete pass. Looks like Saints ball, and basically game over. But wait. Since the play started BEFORE the two-minute warning, the Falcons can challenge it. And they have one timeout remaining, so they do. While the announcers debate it a bit (and they're usually wrong anyways), I try and remain impartial. It looked like the ball was knocked out of his hand before it started coming forward, but it sorta sat there in space, so when his arm continued forward, it pushed it. I wouldn't call that "possession" when his arm was coming forward, but it's close. I'm hoping since it's "inconclusive" that the ref lets the play stand as it was called on the field. Which means Saints ball under 2 minutes, no Falcons timeouts. Game over. No such luck. The ref overturns it, saying he still had possession. Falcons ball, they keep their time out. 2 minute warning.
3.) Thank the lord for Gregg Williams. The Saints defensive coordinator has had success for several different teams, and I can see why. Instead of going into the usual Prevent defense, he's still mixing up his coverage and pass rushes, even occasionally sending blitzes at Matt Ryan. Blitzing up 11 with under 2 minutes to go? Unheard of! And it works. 3 incompletions after the non-fumble, and the Saints get the ball back on downs with 1:42 left in the game.
4.) Let's do some math, shall we? 40 second play clock. Atlanta has one timeout. So assume Atlanta uses it after 1st down, which should take about 3-5 seconds off the clock. Let's be conservative and say 3. 2nd down, even if they snap it with 2 seconds left on the play clock, the play itself and whistles and whatnot and spotting it will take at least 2 more seconds, so that's 40 seconds gone. 3rd down? Same thing -40 seconds. So that's MINIMUM 83 seconds. That's 1:23. Which means Saints punt with 19 seconds left. The punt itself should take a good 5-8 seconds minimum, so the Falcons, best case scenario, will have the ball at their own 20-30 with under 10 seconds. If Matt Ryan can even reach the end zone from there (and no clue if he could or not), it'd take a miracle play. And they're still down 2 scores at this point, so do they even bother? More likely than not, the clock expires before then. Got all that? Good.
5.) 1:42 on the clock. First down - run play up the middle. For some unknown reason, as the play ends the Saints center is day dreaming and looking up in the sky as two 300 pound linemen roll into him. The hit him in the knee, he goes down like a sack of potatoes. 1:37 on the clock. Injury within the final two minutes, the Saints are forced to take a timeout. Forced! That injury just saves the Falcons their own timeout, and 40 seconds on the clock. Oh boy.
6.) No need to panic, right? The Saints can still run the ball twice and run off 40+ seconds before punting from around midfield and pinning Atlanta deep. Right? 2nd down, run up the middle for no gain. Atlanta uses their final timeout. 1:31 remaining.
7.) The last two plays took 5 and 6 seconds each, so now the Saints can run it on 3rd down and Atlanta cannot stop the clock. That will take it down to about 46 seconds. I'm wondering why they don't just take a knee here as they hike the ball. Handoff to Mike Bell, up the middle into a mass of humanity. He's down, the clock keeps ticking. But wait, why the hell are some Falcons signaling their ball? Wishful thinking, it must be. No way he wasn't down. But sure enough, with only one arm on the ball, he gets stripped as he keeps pumping his legs and going nowhere into the pile. Fumble. Atlanta ball. But wait, booth review. Maybe it'll go my way this time. Nope, he was lying on some people, his ass, nor his knees, nor his hips, nor his empty fucking skull touched the ground before he was stripped. Great. Scratch Mike Bell off my Christmas card list. The clock is set to 1:23.
8.) Gregg Williams remains determined to not go into prevent, and Saints DE Will Smith is still playing like a man possessed. Short pass to Gonzalez across the middle. Tick tick tick.. They line up and spike it at the Saints 39. 1:02 left.
9.) The announcers are talking about how they might kick a field goal first if they're in range, since they need two scores anyways. I've heard announcers talk about this many many times before. I can't remember actually seeing a team do that. Gruden is the voice of reason, explaining how it'd be much nicer to get the TD first while you're down here so that you have less distance to go for the game-winning field goal. I start to pray that the Falcons coaches feel the same way.
10.) Pass down the sideline from Matt Ryan to Michael Jenkins. He's pushed out of bounds as he catches it. Incomplete. But wait. Here we go again. Booth review. As they show the replay on TV, the announcers all agree it's a completion. NO FUCKING WAY!! I shout angrily at the TV. There's NO evidence that the big toe on his left foot touched in bounds. It sure as hell looks like it's in the air, almost forced there by his right foot immediately behind it. There's no sign of the dirt or charlk or anything being kicked up by that foot. No grass movement. Nothing. It was very similar to the game-winning Stealers catch last Super Bowl actually. The difference there is it was ruled a catch on the field. This one was ruled incomplete. But, again, the fucking replay screws me. Somehow the ref rules that a catch. I don't see it. I'm fuming now.
11.) 1st down at the Saints 23, 52 seconds left. Sack! Tick tick tick tick tick... It IS field goal range, but they're at the 23, pretty good shot at the end zone from here. Get the TD first.
12.) Ryan spikes the ball with 37 seconds left. 3rd down.
13.) Short checkdown pass to the 22. 4th and 9. They'll go for it, right? Wrong. Apparently someone does believe in the "kick it first" philosophy. Son of a bitch.
14.) It's up, and it's good. I am now punching the pillows on my living room couch, gritting my teeth, and yelling "Fuck fuck fuck!" in a loud whisper. Saints 35, Falcons 27. That's only 8 points, now a point and a half shy of covering.
15.) I tell myself "Okay, well now they're going to try the onsides kick, and I HAVE seen a receiving team take that to the house once or twice. So I'm not totally and completely dead yet." It's a lie. I know it, you know it, everyone does. But I still don't turn off the TV just yet.
16.) The Falcons recover the onside kick with 26 seconds left. Good. Now I'm rooting for them to win the game outright so the Saints lose. I'm already fucked, I'd might as well see the team that fucked me get fucked too, right?
17.) No such luck. A short pass, and a Hail Mary into the end zone. Oh sure, THIS time Darren Sharper holds on to the interception. Thanks for nothing. Dickweed.
So, to summarize:
- Not one, not two, but THREE replays actually overturned plays that would have significantly increased my odds of winning. Two of which seemed very questionable about whether there was "indisputable" evidence. Fucking a, I'm disputing it, so that makes it not indisputable right there. That referee can blow me. In fact, I'm going to look up right now who it was. If it was that Leavy guy from Super Bowl XL, I might just have to do something drastic.. Nope, it was some guy named Jeff Triplette. Well, he's on my shit list now.
- A freak knee injury stopping the clock because the fucking center decided to stargaze and not pay attention to the bodies around him falling towards his legs. J. Goodwin. Hands on his hips, humming to himself, "La la la la la la" as large violent human beings crash around him. He's on my shitlist now too.
- On 3rd down in an obvious situation, Mike Bell is running with only one hand on the ball. He has it tucked under his arm like he's the Heisman fucking Trophy or something, like he's going to be able to use his free hand to stiff-arm all 11 opposing players trying to tackle him. I'm sad the Falcons didn't pull this one out after that blunder, because I would have loved to see him get cut tomorrow. Are NFL players really this dumb? Couldn't Drew Brees or an offensive lineman or someone remind him, "Hey, hang onto the ball, numnuts" before breaking the huddle? Unbelievable.
- And last but not least, down 11 points with 31 seconds to go, the Falcons actually kick a field goal rather than going for it. It was 4th down, so I guess I can't blame them TOO TOO much. But still. It's almost like they kicked it just to get under the spread.
Anyways, the bottomline is I don't think I'll be picking the fucking Saints again this season. In fact, I hope they go on a 9-game losing streak and miss the playoffs.
Thanks for reading. Typing this out has allowed me to stop shaking with rage, and I believe I can now fall asleep. Night! Fuck you Mike Bell!
Monday, November 2, 2009
The Snot Heard Round The World...
I love Brett Favre. And yes, if I were at Lambeau Field yesterday I would have booed the ever living Christ out of him. But I. Love. Brett. Favre. (and no, not in a "Senator Larry Craig" way. God, what's wrong with you people???) And now, from a storied career that can fill several highlight reels came these precious moments yesterday, what regular SBS contributor Dan Glarus described as "A snot rocket". Of course, Dan pointed out that this was "the technical term for it". It didn't take long to wind up on youtube. Reader be forewarned: this isn't for the weak at heart, and viewer discretion is advised...
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