Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Brett the Viking
Thank God I am not 12 years old anymore. When Brett decided to play another season, only this time in the colors of a bitter rival I was sickened. But then I realized that this was the last gasps of an aging athlete and suddenly I felt pity for the man
I’m going to be 47 next week, and just writing that sends a chill down the back of my neck. I don’t feel old, I just know that I’m passing through middle age. I’m at a point in my career where most of my coworkers are younger than me, but I have to maintain my edge. I have to be smarter than them and better than them and I have to be a leader at all times. I guess that’s why I can’t say I blame Brett Favre for coming back for one more season. He’s at the end of his career. Where will I be when I am 63?
Favre as a Viking is like me working for Apple. And if I’m 60 and suddenly obsolete, and Apple offers me a job at the Apple Store I’m sure as hell going to take it. So Brett the Viking is a reality and the question is how will it go? I suspect that Brett will have some success because he truly is a gifted, talented athlete. I also suspect that his body will continue to fail him, because that’s what happens when you turn 40. I’m lucky in that regard: I rely on my brain. But if I tell one more child that Ben Franklin is on the penny…
For the first time as a fan I want to see Brett Favre fail. I want him to limp off the field after some brutal hit never to return. I’d prefer if that hit were delivered by Nick Barnett, or maybe B.J. Raji. But if Brett succeeds and has a great year there’s a part of me that will be smiling for him. Brett’s a natural born leader. As a Packer fan, I can’t root for him. But as a middle aged guy who grew up rooting like hell for him I can quietly say “Go get ‘em!
.
I’m going to be 47 next week, and just writing that sends a chill down the back of my neck. I don’t feel old, I just know that I’m passing through middle age. I’m at a point in my career where most of my coworkers are younger than me, but I have to maintain my edge. I have to be smarter than them and better than them and I have to be a leader at all times. I guess that’s why I can’t say I blame Brett Favre for coming back for one more season. He’s at the end of his career. Where will I be when I am 63?
Favre as a Viking is like me working for Apple. And if I’m 60 and suddenly obsolete, and Apple offers me a job at the Apple Store I’m sure as hell going to take it. So Brett the Viking is a reality and the question is how will it go? I suspect that Brett will have some success because he truly is a gifted, talented athlete. I also suspect that his body will continue to fail him, because that’s what happens when you turn 40. I’m lucky in that regard: I rely on my brain. But if I tell one more child that Ben Franklin is on the penny…
For the first time as a fan I want to see Brett Favre fail. I want him to limp off the field after some brutal hit never to return. I’d prefer if that hit were delivered by Nick Barnett, or maybe B.J. Raji. But if Brett succeeds and has a great year there’s a part of me that will be smiling for him. Brett’s a natural born leader. As a Packer fan, I can’t root for him. But as a middle aged guy who grew up rooting like hell for him I can quietly say “Go get ‘em!
.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
We're Baaaaaaaack! Week One Picks!
A new season, a fresh start. Everyone is 0-0, including the two of us. When you last heard from us with picks, it was Week 6 last season, and we were both barely under .500. Let's see how many weeks we make it this season. There's a buzz going around that our readership may grow by 100% (from 2 to 4), but that may just be a rumor at this point.
It’s great to be making picks again! I have to say after last year’s disappointing seasons I wasn’t sure if Ol’ Samichlaus had the spirit to commit to a whole season. But much like Brett Favre it took a little convincing on St. Ides’s part to get me fired up and we’re back. I’m looking forward to another outstanding season of blogging and football pickin’ so without further adieu…
Tennessee at Pittsburgh -5.5
“Then there was the ever present football-player rapist, they were all in love with dying, they were doing it in Texas”. Or Pittsburgh. Or a hotel suite in Vegas. I like the Steelers in this game by a TD at least. Tennessee will play them tough but there’s no way the defending champs lose at home. Taking the Steelers and the points : Pittsburgh 27 Tennessee 20
Titans +5.5 over STEELERS
Wait, was that a Butthole Surfers lyrics quote? And here I thought your musical tastes were limited to BDF and the Eagles... Speaking of rumors, have you heard this one about Big Ben being sued by a woman claiming sexual assault? Supposedly she's a whack job, so he'll probably not have any true charges filed against him. Too bad. Yes, I still hate the Steelers. Yes, I still think Ben Roethlisberger is overrated. More importantly, I think their running game is going to struggle this year and they've slowly but surely lost some key offensive linemen. I'm still convinced the Steelers are somehow connected to the Illuminati and Dan Rooney managed to rig those last two Super Bowl wins... Karma has to boomerang back around at some point, doesn't it? Titans 23, Steelers 16.
Kansas City at Baltimore -12.5
Yoiks and away. Kansas City is finally rid of St. Ides’s target du jour Herm Edwards, but he’s been replaced by former Cardinals Offensive Coordinator (and ex Jets assistant) Todd Haley. Haley successfully employed the “Get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and get the hell out of his way” offense last year but I suspect that KC might have issues running the scheme. Still, 12.5 is a lot of points, but if the Ravens can stop Larry Johnson the Chiefs will have no answer. Ravens 31 Chiefs 10
RAVENS -12.5 over Chiefs
You are correct, I'm going to miss Herm "We Play To Win The Game" Edwards. Hopefully that means we'll see him on more of those Coors Light commercials. Man, there's some big spreads this first week. And they seem to be based more on last year's performances than this year's expectations. I mean, think about it this way - the vast majority of gamblers probably aren't watching every pre-season game, keeping up with the latest training camp news for each team, and analyzing the new members of each team. They're making their judgments based on last season. (More on this later.) That said, the Chiefs should be almost as bad as last year. Ravens 20, Chiefs 6.
NY Jets at Houston -4.5
Rookie QB Mark “Dirty” Sanchez gets his first look at a real NFL defense… wait, they’re playing Houston? Hold that thought. Matt Schaub says he’s ready to go despite an ankle sprain and he should have fun against the Jets. I like the Texans to win: Texans 24 Jets 17
TEXANS -4.5 over Jets
The Jets gave up a bunch to land Mark Sanchez, their supposed QB savior. Sanchez came out of college early. And if you look deeper at "why" it becomes pretty clear. This was a VERY week QB draft. If he had been in the 2010 draft, he'd likely be the 4th or 5th QB taken, maybe even slip to the 3rd round. Does that mean he's going to suck? Not necessarily. But the Jets didn't exactly give him great weapons to throw to. Jerricho Cotchery and... Who? Chansi Stuckey? David Clowney? Ouch. Meanwhile, if Matt Schaub can stay healthy in Houston (that's a big "if"), he has awesome weapons in Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton. And their defense ain't half bad either. Some are picking the Texans to win the AFC South. I won't go that far, but I think they beat Dirty Sanchez starting his first NFL game as a rookie on the road. Texans 24, Jets 17. (Editor's note: Yes, St. Ides and Samichlaus both made the lame "Dirty Sanchez" joke independently. This is what it comes to when Jeff Garcia is not on an NFL roster.)
Dallas at Tampa Bay +5.5
Can Dallas win their first game on the road at Tampa? I don’t know what to make of these teams this year. Tampa’s new head coach Raheem Morris is a good defensive coordinator, but is unproven as a head coach. Dallas head coach Wade Phillips is a moron. But Dallas has a good QB who is no longer dating that Daisy Duke chick. I like Dallas to win, but I’m going to take the home dog: Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 24.
BUCCANEERS +5.5 over Cowboys
The Bucs are pretty much a mess and officially in "rebuild" mode. But I think the Cowboys are going to be a complete train wreck all season long, even with T.O and Pacman shipped out. Tony Romo is a highly overrated QB who hasn't won jack shit. And supposedly after he dumped Jessica Simpson, she went to a witch and had a curse put on him. And she proceeded to pick up a slightly lesser known QB as her next boyfriend - practice squad fodder Colt Brennan. Anyways, I'll take the points at home. Cowboys 23, Bucs 20.
Philadelphia at Carolina +1.5
This time I’m going against the home dog. Philadelphia has armed themselves with a dog killer this season, so I’m liking them in this game. Philly looked good with McNabb under center, and Carolina is a team that I always think is going to play well and I’m always wrong. Philly wins and covers: Eagles 30 Panthers 27
PANTHERS +1.5 over Eagles
Oh man, it didn't take long for the dog killer jokes to come out, but that was nicely done. Kind of a strange spread here. I'm not sure what Jake Delhomme has left in the tank, but their Carolina run game and defense should be solid. And Steve Smith is still Steve Smith. The Eagles have had an interesting offseason, especially with the whole Michael Vick soap opera. But their hopes basically still come down to Donovan McNabb and Micheal Westbrook - two guys who aren't getting any younger and haven't exactly stayed healthy lately. I'll stick with the Cats. Panthers 27, Eagles 22.
Detroit at New Orleans -13.5
Only two TDs? What am I missing here? Drew Brees is the best QB in the NFC. The Saints are going to have a field day against a team that can’t run, can’t pass and can’t play defense. Two TD’s and a field goal separate these teams and that’s after New Orleans brings in the scrubs at the end of the third Quarter. New Orleans 27 Detroit 10.
Lions +13.5 over SAINTS
Okay, this is where I was going to address the whole "based on last year" thing again. The Lions did shake up things quite a bit on both sides of the ball - #1 pick Matt Stafford will start at QB, Calvin Johnson has another year of experience under his belt (and no Roy Williams opposite him), they picked up former Seahawk Julian Peterson and former Steeler (and Wolverine.. for those playing at home, my hatred for the Steelers overrides my love for Michigan, so I don't like him) Larry Foote. The Saints offense should be just as explosive as last year. Sadly, their defense will likely be just as porous. Lions stay within 2 TDs with a garbage time score. Saints 30, Lions 17.
Minnesota at Cleveland +4.5
Cleveland sucks. And now with the Mangenius at the helm they’re going to suck even more. If Minnesota is smart they’ll hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and get out of his way. Favre has not yet developed a chemistry with his receivers so I don’t expect him to light it up. Yet. I’ll take Minnesota and the points Vikings 30 Cleveland 20
BROWNS +4.5 over Vikings
The Brett Favre era in Minnesota begins! Mangini has pretty much looked like a complete fool in his short time as a head coach in both New York and Cleveland. Even as of right now, on Wednesday night, he's not declared a starting QB for Sunday, claiming it'll make it harder for the Vikes to plan for if they have to prepare for both possible QBs. Right. Like Brady Quinn and Dereck Anderson are striking fear into their hearts. (The word on the street is that Quinn will start by the way.) The common thinking is that a legit passing game with Favre will open up even more space for consensus pre-season MVP pick Adrian Peterson. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few picks by Favre and Brady Quinn finding Braylon Edwards deep once or twice to keep this close. Vikings 27, Browns 24.
Miami at Atlanta -4.5
I really like Miami this year. They were a surprise last year, and I just think they’re going to get better. Atlanta is a good team as well. Can we expect a sophomore slump for Matt Ryan? Me thinks that some things are unavoidable, like death and republican opposition. I’m going out on a limb and taking Miami for a early season Samichlaus shocker: Miami 17 Atlanta 13
FALCONS -4.5 over Dolphins
Michael Turner and Matt Ryan had awesome years last year. Can they repeat? Throw Tony Gonzalez out there with them, and I say, sure, why not? Meanwhile, I think Chad Pennington may fall back down a bit to reality. I think the Dolphins 11-6 record last year was a bit of a fluke. (Slight tangent: Matt Ryan's nickname from his college days is "Matty Ice" and I suspect that's less because he has "icewater in his veins" and more a play on the cheapass college brew "Natty Ice" (also known as Natural Light Ice, which went for about $12 a case back in my day). I bet 95% of football fans don't realize that. So you're quite welcome for the enlightenment.) Falcons 27, Dolphins 13.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis -7.5
The Dungyless Colts. What to make of it? Even if the new coach sucks, it will take a while for some of the old coaching to wear off. Case in point: the Ray Rhodes Packers were 4-0 in preseason and won their first 3 games before collapsing and finishing 8-8. I like Indy with ease. Colts 30 Jaguars 20
Jaguars +7.5 over COLTS
A lot of people think the Colts will suffer a pretty big dropoff this year, with almost complete turnover on the coaching staff, the loss of Marvin Harrison, and some other key departures. Peyton Manning is starting to get a bit up there in years, and may start taking a bit more of a beating behind a somewhat suspect offensive line. I don't trust the Jags either, especially David Garrard. But I'll take the points, as the Jags usually play their divisional rivals pretty close. Colts 27, Jags 26.
Denver at Cincinnati -4.5
Did anyone else watch “Hard Knocks” this season? The Bengals suck. Suck didly suck suck suck. Of course Denver sucks too. Denver doesn’t have a quarterback, do they? Kyle Freakin Orton. And as for Brandon Marshall, whose self serving attitude makes Chad Ochocinco look like a model citizen, all I can say is thank God you are not on my team. Jesus. I’m going to pick the damn Bengals. Crap. Bengals 23 Broncos 17
BENGALS -4.5 over Broncos
I don't have HBO, but I read that Hard Knocks was pretty entertaining,especially Tank Johnson. Okay, let me say this early and often. I'm going to be rooting hard against the Broncos this year, the hardest since they were AFC West rivals with the Seahawks and I wanted to knock that horse-faced smile off John Elway's face every time I saw him. Why? Simple. The Broncos traded their 2010 1st round pick to Seattle for Seattle's 2009 2nd round pick. With Cutler out of town, them not really doing much to improve their offense, and the mess with Brandon Marshall, that pick is looking like a potential top 10 right about now. I like it. Now, that aside, if Carson Palmer can stay healthy (again, a big "if"), they should be able to move the ball. They lost T.J Whosyourmomma to Seattle, but replaced him with Laverneus "Nobody Can Ever Fucking Spell My First Name Right" Coles, who will be a suitable replacement. Bengals 29, Broncos 20.
St. Louis at Seattle -8.5
Has the MASH unit left Seattle yet? If the Seahawks can stay healthy there is no reason why they can’t win their division. But staying healthy is a big if. I like Seattle in this Game. It’s been a long time since the Rams have fielded a competitive team, particularly on the road. Seattle cruises: Seahawks 27 Rams 13
SEAHAWKS -8.5 over Rams
Hasselbeck has looked awesome (and healthy) this pre-season. He's developed a nice chemistry with T.J. Houshmanzadeh pretty quickly. (Reports say better than he's had with Deion Branch, even though Branch has now been there like 3+ years.) They made four pretty big (and overlooked) moves on defense - signed former Packer big body Colin Cole to clog the running lanes, traded Julian Peterson for Corey Redding (who's underachieved his whole career, but who hasn't in Detroit?), drafted top defensive prospect Aaron Curry with the #4 pick, and re-signed former CB Ken Lucas (who's taller than any CB they have which is nice against the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Anyways, their big question mark will be their offensive line and running game. Walter Jones is hurt, and he's not getting any younger. Julius Jones is their starter, but they signed Edge James just 3 weeks ago as insurace. The Rams will likely be one of the worst teams in the league. Marc Bulger may miss this game with a broken pinkie, which leaves the offense in the hands of Kyle Boller. Which means they should be able to focus on Steven Jackson, who Seattle has done a surprisingly good job containing the past two seasons. The crowd is going to be rocking and the team will be looking to prove last season was an injury-riddled blip on the radar. Seahawks 27, Rams 10.
Washington at NY Giants -6.5
Washington is the local team here in Virginia so there’s a lot of Redskins hype on the radio. I’m saying that as a warning: my logic here is being influenced by the media. Now with that caveat emptor, the Skins and Giants always play close games, right? And 6.5 may seem like the right spread, but I think the Skins keep it close enough to lose in the last seconds. Skins and the points. Giants 20 Redskins 17.
Redskins +6.5 over GIANTS
When the Skins started hot last season, everyone was praising Jim Zorn. I was happy the former Seattle QB and coach was having success - and a little bit sad we had let him escape to Washington by handing over the future reins to the team to Jim Mora. Then the team started to crumble and missed the playoffs. Now, with names like Holmgren, Cowher, Gruden, and Dungy out there as potential coaches next season, Zorn is on the hot seat. They also spent a lot of their offseason pursuing a new starting QB - there were rumors about Cutler, Favre, Sanchez, and even Vick. Which has to be a shot to the ego of Jason Campbell. How does he respond? Some players thrive on that sort of challenge, and some wilt. I'm going to say Campbell is somewhere in the middle. As for the Giants, I'm not real high on them. They'll miss Plaxico. I still don't think Eli has become a top 5 QB in the league... Maybe barely top 10. It'll be close. Giants 20, Skins 17.
San Francisco at Arizona -6.5
Arizona went to the Super Bowl last year, and I still find that hard to believe. But last year I picked against the Cards several time, and I usually lost. San Francisco is still without their first round pick Michael Crabtree who is holding out for more money than he deserves. That pretty much means last year’s Niners team is going to take the field. Let’s go with the Cards and the points: Arizona 24 San Francisco 17
Niners +6.5 over CARDINALS
You know, the Cardinals are one hit away from Matt Leinart being their starting QB. Does Warner really have one more amazing season left in him? Really? Because that's what they'll need to win the NFC West again. Yes, the Niners suck, but I just think the Cardinals are in for a hugely disappointing season with the "Defending NFC Champs" target on their back. Niners 29, Cards 27.
Chicago at Green Bay -3.5
What a way to start the season: a crushing victory over the Bears. Sure, SI and Fox picked the Bears to go to the Super Bowl, but what do they know? The Packers are a much improved team. They’ve purged the defensive coaching staff and have brought in Dom Capers and his aggressive zone blitzing 3-4. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out in preseason, and RB Ryan Grant is healthy and running downhill again. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are back and here’s the inside scoop: Packers TE Jermichael Finley and Donald Lee are going to be huge. Watch this Finley kid: he stretches the field like Tony Gonzalez. The D has looked fantastic, albeit preseason fantastic. I can’t wait to see them in action against Jay Cutler, who by the way has looked terrific. Packers and the points: Green Bay 30 Chicago 21
PACKERS -3.5 over Bears
As an impartial observer, I agree with Steve here. I think the Packers are going to be one of the best teams in the NFC. Their defense should be pretty damn good, and Rodgers has looked good and has nice weapons around him. I'm not sold on Cutler, especially without all that much to throw to. And the Bears D has to be getting a bit up there in age, no? Packers 26, Bears 19.
Buffalo at New England -10.5
The line must have dropped here. This one is a no brainer: New England at home, with their star QB back under the helm, going up against a Dick Jauron coached team. It’s going to be an interesting season for New England: can they make it back to the upper echelon of the NFL? You bet they can, and they send a huge message for week 1: New England 37 Buffalo 13
PATRIOTS -10.5 over Bills
As long as the offensive line can keep Brady's jersey clean (and knees intact), they should be good. Word is the Bills plan on blitzing the poop out of him. With Brady missing all of last year, nobody has really been able to try out the "pressure the hell out of Brady" winning formula the Giants used to win the Super Bowl. Although with the losses of Vrabel, Brusci, and Seymour, who the hell is playing D for the Pats? Ty Law? Randall Gay? As for the Bills.. The over/under on T.O. being seen blowing up on the sidelines is 2.5 quarters. Pats 30, Bills 13.
San Diego at Oakland +9.5
How fucked up is Oakland? They send their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots (!) for a guy who won’t show up. Time will tell if he makes it there by Sunday but this team is cursed. Look for the Pats to have the #1 or #2 in that draft, and look for Richard Seymour to be a marginal help for the hapless Raider run defense. San Diego should have no problem whippin’ the home dog. Bolts 35 Raiders 20
Chargers -9.5 over RAIDERS
Yeah, the Raiders are pretty fucked up. Their first round pick, that Bey-Heyward guy, is fast as hell but apparently can't catch a cold. And they cut Jeff Garcia last week. That right there will doom them to a hard season of criticsm here on SBS for taking away some of our best joke material. The Merriman situation with choking that chick is interesting. Roid rage anyone? Still, Phil Rivers looks decent and LDT has something left to prove. Chargers 28, Raiders 10.
It’s great to be making picks again! I have to say after last year’s disappointing seasons I wasn’t sure if Ol’ Samichlaus had the spirit to commit to a whole season. But much like Brett Favre it took a little convincing on St. Ides’s part to get me fired up and we’re back. I’m looking forward to another outstanding season of blogging and football pickin’ so without further adieu…
Tennessee at Pittsburgh -5.5
“Then there was the ever present football-player rapist, they were all in love with dying, they were doing it in Texas”. Or Pittsburgh. Or a hotel suite in Vegas. I like the Steelers in this game by a TD at least. Tennessee will play them tough but there’s no way the defending champs lose at home. Taking the Steelers and the points : Pittsburgh 27 Tennessee 20
Titans +5.5 over STEELERS
Wait, was that a Butthole Surfers lyrics quote? And here I thought your musical tastes were limited to BDF and the Eagles... Speaking of rumors, have you heard this one about Big Ben being sued by a woman claiming sexual assault? Supposedly she's a whack job, so he'll probably not have any true charges filed against him. Too bad. Yes, I still hate the Steelers. Yes, I still think Ben Roethlisberger is overrated. More importantly, I think their running game is going to struggle this year and they've slowly but surely lost some key offensive linemen. I'm still convinced the Steelers are somehow connected to the Illuminati and Dan Rooney managed to rig those last two Super Bowl wins... Karma has to boomerang back around at some point, doesn't it? Titans 23, Steelers 16.
Kansas City at Baltimore -12.5
Yoiks and away. Kansas City is finally rid of St. Ides’s target du jour Herm Edwards, but he’s been replaced by former Cardinals Offensive Coordinator (and ex Jets assistant) Todd Haley. Haley successfully employed the “Get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and get the hell out of his way” offense last year but I suspect that KC might have issues running the scheme. Still, 12.5 is a lot of points, but if the Ravens can stop Larry Johnson the Chiefs will have no answer. Ravens 31 Chiefs 10
RAVENS -12.5 over Chiefs
You are correct, I'm going to miss Herm "We Play To Win The Game" Edwards. Hopefully that means we'll see him on more of those Coors Light commercials. Man, there's some big spreads this first week. And they seem to be based more on last year's performances than this year's expectations. I mean, think about it this way - the vast majority of gamblers probably aren't watching every pre-season game, keeping up with the latest training camp news for each team, and analyzing the new members of each team. They're making their judgments based on last season. (More on this later.) That said, the Chiefs should be almost as bad as last year. Ravens 20, Chiefs 6.
NY Jets at Houston -4.5
Rookie QB Mark “Dirty” Sanchez gets his first look at a real NFL defense… wait, they’re playing Houston? Hold that thought. Matt Schaub says he’s ready to go despite an ankle sprain and he should have fun against the Jets. I like the Texans to win: Texans 24 Jets 17
TEXANS -4.5 over Jets
The Jets gave up a bunch to land Mark Sanchez, their supposed QB savior. Sanchez came out of college early. And if you look deeper at "why" it becomes pretty clear. This was a VERY week QB draft. If he had been in the 2010 draft, he'd likely be the 4th or 5th QB taken, maybe even slip to the 3rd round. Does that mean he's going to suck? Not necessarily. But the Jets didn't exactly give him great weapons to throw to. Jerricho Cotchery and... Who? Chansi Stuckey? David Clowney? Ouch. Meanwhile, if Matt Schaub can stay healthy in Houston (that's a big "if"), he has awesome weapons in Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton. And their defense ain't half bad either. Some are picking the Texans to win the AFC South. I won't go that far, but I think they beat Dirty Sanchez starting his first NFL game as a rookie on the road. Texans 24, Jets 17. (Editor's note: Yes, St. Ides and Samichlaus both made the lame "Dirty Sanchez" joke independently. This is what it comes to when Jeff Garcia is not on an NFL roster.)
Dallas at Tampa Bay +5.5
Can Dallas win their first game on the road at Tampa? I don’t know what to make of these teams this year. Tampa’s new head coach Raheem Morris is a good defensive coordinator, but is unproven as a head coach. Dallas head coach Wade Phillips is a moron. But Dallas has a good QB who is no longer dating that Daisy Duke chick. I like Dallas to win, but I’m going to take the home dog: Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 24.
BUCCANEERS +5.5 over Cowboys
The Bucs are pretty much a mess and officially in "rebuild" mode. But I think the Cowboys are going to be a complete train wreck all season long, even with T.O and Pacman shipped out. Tony Romo is a highly overrated QB who hasn't won jack shit. And supposedly after he dumped Jessica Simpson, she went to a witch and had a curse put on him. And she proceeded to pick up a slightly lesser known QB as her next boyfriend - practice squad fodder Colt Brennan. Anyways, I'll take the points at home. Cowboys 23, Bucs 20.
Philadelphia at Carolina +1.5
This time I’m going against the home dog. Philadelphia has armed themselves with a dog killer this season, so I’m liking them in this game. Philly looked good with McNabb under center, and Carolina is a team that I always think is going to play well and I’m always wrong. Philly wins and covers: Eagles 30 Panthers 27
PANTHERS +1.5 over Eagles
Oh man, it didn't take long for the dog killer jokes to come out, but that was nicely done. Kind of a strange spread here. I'm not sure what Jake Delhomme has left in the tank, but their Carolina run game and defense should be solid. And Steve Smith is still Steve Smith. The Eagles have had an interesting offseason, especially with the whole Michael Vick soap opera. But their hopes basically still come down to Donovan McNabb and Micheal Westbrook - two guys who aren't getting any younger and haven't exactly stayed healthy lately. I'll stick with the Cats. Panthers 27, Eagles 22.
Detroit at New Orleans -13.5
Only two TDs? What am I missing here? Drew Brees is the best QB in the NFC. The Saints are going to have a field day against a team that can’t run, can’t pass and can’t play defense. Two TD’s and a field goal separate these teams and that’s after New Orleans brings in the scrubs at the end of the third Quarter. New Orleans 27 Detroit 10.
Lions +13.5 over SAINTS
Okay, this is where I was going to address the whole "based on last year" thing again. The Lions did shake up things quite a bit on both sides of the ball - #1 pick Matt Stafford will start at QB, Calvin Johnson has another year of experience under his belt (and no Roy Williams opposite him), they picked up former Seahawk Julian Peterson and former Steeler (and Wolverine.. for those playing at home, my hatred for the Steelers overrides my love for Michigan, so I don't like him) Larry Foote. The Saints offense should be just as explosive as last year. Sadly, their defense will likely be just as porous. Lions stay within 2 TDs with a garbage time score. Saints 30, Lions 17.
Minnesota at Cleveland +4.5
Cleveland sucks. And now with the Mangenius at the helm they’re going to suck even more. If Minnesota is smart they’ll hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and get out of his way. Favre has not yet developed a chemistry with his receivers so I don’t expect him to light it up. Yet. I’ll take Minnesota and the points Vikings 30 Cleveland 20
BROWNS +4.5 over Vikings
The Brett Favre era in Minnesota begins! Mangini has pretty much looked like a complete fool in his short time as a head coach in both New York and Cleveland. Even as of right now, on Wednesday night, he's not declared a starting QB for Sunday, claiming it'll make it harder for the Vikes to plan for if they have to prepare for both possible QBs. Right. Like Brady Quinn and Dereck Anderson are striking fear into their hearts. (The word on the street is that Quinn will start by the way.) The common thinking is that a legit passing game with Favre will open up even more space for consensus pre-season MVP pick Adrian Peterson. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few picks by Favre and Brady Quinn finding Braylon Edwards deep once or twice to keep this close. Vikings 27, Browns 24.
Miami at Atlanta -4.5
I really like Miami this year. They were a surprise last year, and I just think they’re going to get better. Atlanta is a good team as well. Can we expect a sophomore slump for Matt Ryan? Me thinks that some things are unavoidable, like death and republican opposition. I’m going out on a limb and taking Miami for a early season Samichlaus shocker: Miami 17 Atlanta 13
FALCONS -4.5 over Dolphins
Michael Turner and Matt Ryan had awesome years last year. Can they repeat? Throw Tony Gonzalez out there with them, and I say, sure, why not? Meanwhile, I think Chad Pennington may fall back down a bit to reality. I think the Dolphins 11-6 record last year was a bit of a fluke. (Slight tangent: Matt Ryan's nickname from his college days is "Matty Ice" and I suspect that's less because he has "icewater in his veins" and more a play on the cheapass college brew "Natty Ice" (also known as Natural Light Ice, which went for about $12 a case back in my day). I bet 95% of football fans don't realize that. So you're quite welcome for the enlightenment.) Falcons 27, Dolphins 13.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis -7.5
The Dungyless Colts. What to make of it? Even if the new coach sucks, it will take a while for some of the old coaching to wear off. Case in point: the Ray Rhodes Packers were 4-0 in preseason and won their first 3 games before collapsing and finishing 8-8. I like Indy with ease. Colts 30 Jaguars 20
Jaguars +7.5 over COLTS
A lot of people think the Colts will suffer a pretty big dropoff this year, with almost complete turnover on the coaching staff, the loss of Marvin Harrison, and some other key departures. Peyton Manning is starting to get a bit up there in years, and may start taking a bit more of a beating behind a somewhat suspect offensive line. I don't trust the Jags either, especially David Garrard. But I'll take the points, as the Jags usually play their divisional rivals pretty close. Colts 27, Jags 26.
Denver at Cincinnati -4.5
Did anyone else watch “Hard Knocks” this season? The Bengals suck. Suck didly suck suck suck. Of course Denver sucks too. Denver doesn’t have a quarterback, do they? Kyle Freakin Orton. And as for Brandon Marshall, whose self serving attitude makes Chad Ochocinco look like a model citizen, all I can say is thank God you are not on my team. Jesus. I’m going to pick the damn Bengals. Crap. Bengals 23 Broncos 17
BENGALS -4.5 over Broncos
I don't have HBO, but I read that Hard Knocks was pretty entertaining,especially Tank Johnson. Okay, let me say this early and often. I'm going to be rooting hard against the Broncos this year, the hardest since they were AFC West rivals with the Seahawks and I wanted to knock that horse-faced smile off John Elway's face every time I saw him. Why? Simple. The Broncos traded their 2010 1st round pick to Seattle for Seattle's 2009 2nd round pick. With Cutler out of town, them not really doing much to improve their offense, and the mess with Brandon Marshall, that pick is looking like a potential top 10 right about now. I like it. Now, that aside, if Carson Palmer can stay healthy (again, a big "if"), they should be able to move the ball. They lost T.J Whosyourmomma to Seattle, but replaced him with Laverneus "Nobody Can Ever Fucking Spell My First Name Right" Coles, who will be a suitable replacement. Bengals 29, Broncos 20.
St. Louis at Seattle -8.5
Has the MASH unit left Seattle yet? If the Seahawks can stay healthy there is no reason why they can’t win their division. But staying healthy is a big if. I like Seattle in this Game. It’s been a long time since the Rams have fielded a competitive team, particularly on the road. Seattle cruises: Seahawks 27 Rams 13
SEAHAWKS -8.5 over Rams
Hasselbeck has looked awesome (and healthy) this pre-season. He's developed a nice chemistry with T.J. Houshmanzadeh pretty quickly. (Reports say better than he's had with Deion Branch, even though Branch has now been there like 3+ years.) They made four pretty big (and overlooked) moves on defense - signed former Packer big body Colin Cole to clog the running lanes, traded Julian Peterson for Corey Redding (who's underachieved his whole career, but who hasn't in Detroit?), drafted top defensive prospect Aaron Curry with the #4 pick, and re-signed former CB Ken Lucas (who's taller than any CB they have which is nice against the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Anyways, their big question mark will be their offensive line and running game. Walter Jones is hurt, and he's not getting any younger. Julius Jones is their starter, but they signed Edge James just 3 weeks ago as insurace. The Rams will likely be one of the worst teams in the league. Marc Bulger may miss this game with a broken pinkie, which leaves the offense in the hands of Kyle Boller. Which means they should be able to focus on Steven Jackson, who Seattle has done a surprisingly good job containing the past two seasons. The crowd is going to be rocking and the team will be looking to prove last season was an injury-riddled blip on the radar. Seahawks 27, Rams 10.
Washington at NY Giants -6.5
Washington is the local team here in Virginia so there’s a lot of Redskins hype on the radio. I’m saying that as a warning: my logic here is being influenced by the media. Now with that caveat emptor, the Skins and Giants always play close games, right? And 6.5 may seem like the right spread, but I think the Skins keep it close enough to lose in the last seconds. Skins and the points. Giants 20 Redskins 17.
Redskins +6.5 over GIANTS
When the Skins started hot last season, everyone was praising Jim Zorn. I was happy the former Seattle QB and coach was having success - and a little bit sad we had let him escape to Washington by handing over the future reins to the team to Jim Mora. Then the team started to crumble and missed the playoffs. Now, with names like Holmgren, Cowher, Gruden, and Dungy out there as potential coaches next season, Zorn is on the hot seat. They also spent a lot of their offseason pursuing a new starting QB - there were rumors about Cutler, Favre, Sanchez, and even Vick. Which has to be a shot to the ego of Jason Campbell. How does he respond? Some players thrive on that sort of challenge, and some wilt. I'm going to say Campbell is somewhere in the middle. As for the Giants, I'm not real high on them. They'll miss Plaxico. I still don't think Eli has become a top 5 QB in the league... Maybe barely top 10. It'll be close. Giants 20, Skins 17.
San Francisco at Arizona -6.5
Arizona went to the Super Bowl last year, and I still find that hard to believe. But last year I picked against the Cards several time, and I usually lost. San Francisco is still without their first round pick Michael Crabtree who is holding out for more money than he deserves. That pretty much means last year’s Niners team is going to take the field. Let’s go with the Cards and the points: Arizona 24 San Francisco 17
Niners +6.5 over CARDINALS
You know, the Cardinals are one hit away from Matt Leinart being their starting QB. Does Warner really have one more amazing season left in him? Really? Because that's what they'll need to win the NFC West again. Yes, the Niners suck, but I just think the Cardinals are in for a hugely disappointing season with the "Defending NFC Champs" target on their back. Niners 29, Cards 27.
Chicago at Green Bay -3.5
What a way to start the season: a crushing victory over the Bears. Sure, SI and Fox picked the Bears to go to the Super Bowl, but what do they know? The Packers are a much improved team. They’ve purged the defensive coaching staff and have brought in Dom Capers and his aggressive zone blitzing 3-4. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out in preseason, and RB Ryan Grant is healthy and running downhill again. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are back and here’s the inside scoop: Packers TE Jermichael Finley and Donald Lee are going to be huge. Watch this Finley kid: he stretches the field like Tony Gonzalez. The D has looked fantastic, albeit preseason fantastic. I can’t wait to see them in action against Jay Cutler, who by the way has looked terrific. Packers and the points: Green Bay 30 Chicago 21
PACKERS -3.5 over Bears
As an impartial observer, I agree with Steve here. I think the Packers are going to be one of the best teams in the NFC. Their defense should be pretty damn good, and Rodgers has looked good and has nice weapons around him. I'm not sold on Cutler, especially without all that much to throw to. And the Bears D has to be getting a bit up there in age, no? Packers 26, Bears 19.
Buffalo at New England -10.5
The line must have dropped here. This one is a no brainer: New England at home, with their star QB back under the helm, going up against a Dick Jauron coached team. It’s going to be an interesting season for New England: can they make it back to the upper echelon of the NFL? You bet they can, and they send a huge message for week 1: New England 37 Buffalo 13
PATRIOTS -10.5 over Bills
As long as the offensive line can keep Brady's jersey clean (and knees intact), they should be good. Word is the Bills plan on blitzing the poop out of him. With Brady missing all of last year, nobody has really been able to try out the "pressure the hell out of Brady" winning formula the Giants used to win the Super Bowl. Although with the losses of Vrabel, Brusci, and Seymour, who the hell is playing D for the Pats? Ty Law? Randall Gay? As for the Bills.. The over/under on T.O. being seen blowing up on the sidelines is 2.5 quarters. Pats 30, Bills 13.
San Diego at Oakland +9.5
How fucked up is Oakland? They send their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots (!) for a guy who won’t show up. Time will tell if he makes it there by Sunday but this team is cursed. Look for the Pats to have the #1 or #2 in that draft, and look for Richard Seymour to be a marginal help for the hapless Raider run defense. San Diego should have no problem whippin’ the home dog. Bolts 35 Raiders 20
Chargers -9.5 over RAIDERS
Yeah, the Raiders are pretty fucked up. Their first round pick, that Bey-Heyward guy, is fast as hell but apparently can't catch a cold. And they cut Jeff Garcia last week. That right there will doom them to a hard season of criticsm here on SBS for taking away some of our best joke material. The Merriman situation with choking that chick is interesting. Roid rage anyone? Still, Phil Rivers looks decent and LDT has something left to prove. Chargers 28, Raiders 10.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
SBS Steves Agree to Terms, Return for a Fourth Season.
The Steves are back!
With time running out on the domain renewal, the Steves have agreed to terms and have signed on for a fourth season of blogging at Sports Blog Steves. Although the negotiations weren't nearly as colorful as the last time, the Steves have committed to maintain the blog and to update it frequently. "We sucked last year" noted Steve St. Ides, "I'm pretty busy this year, but I can make time each week from home at night to do a post or two." For Steve Samichlaus, a little support from St. Ides was all he needed. "I think that's all I needed to hear: I'm in. Last year was tough."
Samichlaus went further, discussing the loss of readership and the difficulties maintaining a blog that has no readers: "Once Brady went out Anonymous stopped participating, and Ki Ki was a lost cause last year. With out Brett playing she really didn't get into football at all. Essentially we lost 100% of our readership."
The Steves are hoping that a renewed commitment along with their usual high level of journalistic skills will bring back their loyal following and perhaps attract some new readership.
"I don't understand why an annoying yentah like Dooce has thousands upon thousands of readers daily and we only get a mild bump of like what, twenty, when I write about the fat cooze who clipped me out of fifteen large." said Samichlaus. "Maybe it's because Dooce is , well what's the word, interesting?"
Stay tuned headless readers...
With time running out on the domain renewal, the Steves have agreed to terms and have signed on for a fourth season of blogging at Sports Blog Steves. Although the negotiations weren't nearly as colorful as the last time, the Steves have committed to maintain the blog and to update it frequently. "We sucked last year" noted Steve St. Ides, "I'm pretty busy this year, but I can make time each week from home at night to do a post or two." For Steve Samichlaus, a little support from St. Ides was all he needed. "I think that's all I needed to hear: I'm in. Last year was tough."
Samichlaus went further, discussing the loss of readership and the difficulties maintaining a blog that has no readers: "Once Brady went out Anonymous stopped participating, and Ki Ki was a lost cause last year. With out Brett playing she really didn't get into football at all. Essentially we lost 100% of our readership."
The Steves are hoping that a renewed commitment along with their usual high level of journalistic skills will bring back their loyal following and perhaps attract some new readership.
"I don't understand why an annoying yentah like Dooce has thousands upon thousands of readers daily and we only get a mild bump of like what, twenty, when I write about the fat cooze who clipped me out of fifteen large." said Samichlaus. "Maybe it's because Dooce is , well what's the word, interesting?"
Stay tuned headless readers...
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The 6/17th of a Season Power Rankings!
It's a special Tuesday treat! We're 35% done with the season, so let's have a little bit of Power Ranking fun, shall we? This is basically how I think the teams rank right now, and my final little section about who I think the playoff teams will be when the season ends doesn't necessarily match up. Like if a team looks like they suck right now, but I think they'll come around, they'll be rated low-ish, but still might show up on the playoff team list. (Like the Jets.) Likewise, if a team is playing pretty good right now, but I expect to collapse, they probably won't make the playoff list. (Like the Panthers.) It's parity at it's finest this year folks! Especially with the Brady injury and the Giants getting destroyed last night. Anyways, the first one shouldn't come as much of a surprise:
32. Lions
Valiant effort against the Vikings. They should have won that game. Blame Dan Orlovsky, product of that QB factory UConn. He stepped on the end zone back line for a safety with zero pressure on him early in the game, and those two points were the deciding factor.
31. Bengals
Looks like Carson Palmer's elbow problem may be more serious than originally thought which means bad news for the Bungles.
30. Rams
They move up two slots with an upset over the Redskins. These Rams do have a bit of life in them, and maybe the new coach will give them enough of a change to win a few games.
29. Raiders
What a freakshow in Oakland right now. They have a decent defense, and two high draft picks on offense in JaMarcus Russell and Darrenn McFadden. But it's starting to look like maybe Russell is a bust.
28. Chiefs
I'll say it again - Herm Edwards is a horrible coach. Maybe they'll do classy veteran Tony Gonzalez a favor and trade him to a contender before this week's trade deadline.
27. Seahawks
The defense looks awful. They're getting no pressure on the QB and the secondary is getting lit up. And now Hasselbeck is hurt and they're not sure when he'll be back. Looks like Holmgren's last season is a lost one.
26. Niners
After a couple good games, it looks like the league has caught up with J.T. O'Sullivan. He's staring down his receivers and now has more picks than TDs.
25. Texans
They're one of the few teams better than their horrible record. Gutsy win this week led by Matt Schaub. And had Sage Rosenfals not self destructed last week, this team would be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
24. Vikings
They almost lost to the Lions. In Minnesota. We're hearing a lot less about Adrian Peterson. Their defense isn't as good as people think (especially against the pass) and Gus Frerotte hasn't exactly been the savior at QB.
23. Jaguars
This team is a bit of a mystery. Their running game is struggling. David Garrard looks mediocre at best. But their WRs are finally holding onto the ball and the defense seems decent.
22. Browns
Decent sized jump after demolishing the Giants. I had them at #27 in my rough draft done on Monday afternoon. I cannot figure this team out.
21. Dolphins
Chad Pennington looks good. Shocking, I know. They've knocked off a couple good teams already, but then they lose to the Texans. They're probably not quite ready to make a run at the AFC East, but they've got some fight in them.
20. Bears
Kyle Orton continues to look like he might be the answer at QB. Rookie RB Matt Forte has been awesome. (Which I've noticed mostly because he's on my fantasy team.) The defense isn't as dominant as a couple years ago, but still better than most.
19. Broncos
Another strange team. Seems their defense is pretty leaky, and their offense is mostly good, but a bit inconsistent. To be honest, I haven't followed them too much. So I'm just making this up.
18. Ravens
They looked good until they got drubbed by the Colts this week. I like their rookie QB, and their defense is still pretty good (though older). I think they're a borderline playoff team right now.
17. Packers
They are totally banged up, but Aaron Rodgers has hung in there and looked pretty good. They still have lots of weapons on offense. If the defense can weather the storm until they get healthy, they'll likely take the NFC North.
16. Saints
Yes, Drew Brees is still on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record. How come nobody else is talking about this? If his name were Romo or Favre, they would have been talking about this after week 2.
15. Jets
Speaking of Romo and Favre, I'm not quite sold on the Jets, but they have a pretty weak schedule (including the Raiders and Chiefs the next two weeks). It looks like they should make the playoffs.
14. Cowboys
Speaking of Romo and Favre, could it be Romo has been exposed as the overrated fraud I've been saying he is for months now? Dallas was very lucky that game even went to overtime against the Cardinals. Their defense can be thrown on very easily, and if you take away TO and Whitten, Romo doesn't have much to throw to.
13. Eagles
They miss Westbrook. But McNabb is playing very well right now and they have their typical solid defense. It'll be an interesting 4-way battle in the NFC East. Someone I don't think the Eagles will come out ahead, but they'll be in th thick of things.
12. Falcons
What the?!?! Who the?!? I continue to be shocked each week when I see the Falcons beating a legitimate opponent. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been awesome, but you have to give some credit to their coaching staff. They're turned a "rebuilding" year into a season with playoff aspirations.
11. Patriots
So much for Belichick out-coaching Norv Turner. I guess he'd need an NFL-caliber QB to do that. Still, I expect the Patriots to find a way to stick around for playoff contention somehow. I think.
10. Panthers
Just as I was starting to believe in them, they get dominated by the Bucs. The NFC South could be the league's most interesting division this year. It'll probably be tough for them to get 2 teams in the playoffs with the way the NFC East looks, but you never know.
9. Cardinals
They almost blew it, but they knocked off the Cowboys. The end of the game was eerily reminscient of the "They were who they thought they were!" meltdown against the Bears a few years ago. The difference? Denny Green was nowhere to be found to complete the self destruction.
8. Redskins
I would have had them as high as #3 had they not just lost to the Rams in DC. Ouch. Still, I like how they've knocked off both the Cowboys and Eagles on the road. As long as they don't do a reverse of last year and finish the season ice cold, they should make the playoffs.
7. Colts
A bit of a resurgence here for the Colts after spanking the Ravens. Their offensive line is getting healthy again, which is huge for the hobbled Manning. Their defense still has some questions, but as long as they keep Manning upright long enough to find Harrison and Wayne, they could look like the Colts of old.
6. Chargers
The toe injury to Tomlinson is worrisome. But Phillip Rivers is starting to look like the real deal at QB. Impressive win over the Patriots. It almost looks as if the AFC West is theirs for the taking again.
5. Steelers
They're banged up pretty badly, but somehow managed to squeeze out the last few wins. They could be dropping like a rock really soon, but I'm not too impressed with the rest of the AFC North at this point.
4. Bucanneers
I will spare you the Jeff Garcia joke in this power rankings item. However, expect the running gag (as unfunny as it may be) to return during this week's picks. In the meantime, somehow the Bucs defense looks pretty formidable again. And Warrick Dunn has found the Fountain of Youth.
3. Bills
I believe it was Week 2 when I said the Bills will win the AFC East. They hit a little stumble in Arizona, but I still believe this. Sad to say, but in the end, I think the Patriots are going to have a hard time over-coming the loss of Brady. The Bills get Trent Edwards back this week, which should help.
2. Giants
Minor fall after a bad road game on Monday night. I still think they're probably one of the best teams in the league. But a few more poor road showings like that, and maybe the NFC East is even more wide open than most people thought.
1. Titans
Presenting your starting QB of the #1 ranked NFL team - Kerry Collins! Seriously though, this team is doing it with hard-nosed defense and a solid running game. I've always liked Jeff Fisher, so it's good to see his team on top again. It'll be interesting to see their remaining AFC South games, especially against the Colts.
Playoff Teams:
(Going out on a limb here with the Falcons claiming a wild card, but I'm thinking the Cowboys are in deep trouble with Romo hurt and Pacman suspended..)
AFC: Titans, Steelers, Bills, Chargers, Jets, Colts
NFC: Giants, Bucanneers, Packers, Cardinals, Falcons, Redskins
32. Lions
Valiant effort against the Vikings. They should have won that game. Blame Dan Orlovsky, product of that QB factory UConn. He stepped on the end zone back line for a safety with zero pressure on him early in the game, and those two points were the deciding factor.
31. Bengals
Looks like Carson Palmer's elbow problem may be more serious than originally thought which means bad news for the Bungles.
30. Rams
They move up two slots with an upset over the Redskins. These Rams do have a bit of life in them, and maybe the new coach will give them enough of a change to win a few games.
29. Raiders
What a freakshow in Oakland right now. They have a decent defense, and two high draft picks on offense in JaMarcus Russell and Darrenn McFadden. But it's starting to look like maybe Russell is a bust.
28. Chiefs
I'll say it again - Herm Edwards is a horrible coach. Maybe they'll do classy veteran Tony Gonzalez a favor and trade him to a contender before this week's trade deadline.
27. Seahawks
The defense looks awful. They're getting no pressure on the QB and the secondary is getting lit up. And now Hasselbeck is hurt and they're not sure when he'll be back. Looks like Holmgren's last season is a lost one.
26. Niners
After a couple good games, it looks like the league has caught up with J.T. O'Sullivan. He's staring down his receivers and now has more picks than TDs.
25. Texans
They're one of the few teams better than their horrible record. Gutsy win this week led by Matt Schaub. And had Sage Rosenfals not self destructed last week, this team would be right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
24. Vikings
They almost lost to the Lions. In Minnesota. We're hearing a lot less about Adrian Peterson. Their defense isn't as good as people think (especially against the pass) and Gus Frerotte hasn't exactly been the savior at QB.
23. Jaguars
This team is a bit of a mystery. Their running game is struggling. David Garrard looks mediocre at best. But their WRs are finally holding onto the ball and the defense seems decent.
22. Browns
Decent sized jump after demolishing the Giants. I had them at #27 in my rough draft done on Monday afternoon. I cannot figure this team out.
21. Dolphins
Chad Pennington looks good. Shocking, I know. They've knocked off a couple good teams already, but then they lose to the Texans. They're probably not quite ready to make a run at the AFC East, but they've got some fight in them.
20. Bears
Kyle Orton continues to look like he might be the answer at QB. Rookie RB Matt Forte has been awesome. (Which I've noticed mostly because he's on my fantasy team.) The defense isn't as dominant as a couple years ago, but still better than most.
19. Broncos
Another strange team. Seems their defense is pretty leaky, and their offense is mostly good, but a bit inconsistent. To be honest, I haven't followed them too much. So I'm just making this up.
18. Ravens
They looked good until they got drubbed by the Colts this week. I like their rookie QB, and their defense is still pretty good (though older). I think they're a borderline playoff team right now.
17. Packers
They are totally banged up, but Aaron Rodgers has hung in there and looked pretty good. They still have lots of weapons on offense. If the defense can weather the storm until they get healthy, they'll likely take the NFC North.
16. Saints
Yes, Drew Brees is still on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record. How come nobody else is talking about this? If his name were Romo or Favre, they would have been talking about this after week 2.
15. Jets
Speaking of Romo and Favre, I'm not quite sold on the Jets, but they have a pretty weak schedule (including the Raiders and Chiefs the next two weeks). It looks like they should make the playoffs.
14. Cowboys
Speaking of Romo and Favre, could it be Romo has been exposed as the overrated fraud I've been saying he is for months now? Dallas was very lucky that game even went to overtime against the Cardinals. Their defense can be thrown on very easily, and if you take away TO and Whitten, Romo doesn't have much to throw to.
13. Eagles
They miss Westbrook. But McNabb is playing very well right now and they have their typical solid defense. It'll be an interesting 4-way battle in the NFC East. Someone I don't think the Eagles will come out ahead, but they'll be in th thick of things.
12. Falcons
What the?!?! Who the?!? I continue to be shocked each week when I see the Falcons beating a legitimate opponent. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been awesome, but you have to give some credit to their coaching staff. They're turned a "rebuilding" year into a season with playoff aspirations.
11. Patriots
So much for Belichick out-coaching Norv Turner. I guess he'd need an NFL-caliber QB to do that. Still, I expect the Patriots to find a way to stick around for playoff contention somehow. I think.
10. Panthers
Just as I was starting to believe in them, they get dominated by the Bucs. The NFC South could be the league's most interesting division this year. It'll probably be tough for them to get 2 teams in the playoffs with the way the NFC East looks, but you never know.
9. Cardinals
They almost blew it, but they knocked off the Cowboys. The end of the game was eerily reminscient of the "They were who they thought they were!" meltdown against the Bears a few years ago. The difference? Denny Green was nowhere to be found to complete the self destruction.
8. Redskins
I would have had them as high as #3 had they not just lost to the Rams in DC. Ouch. Still, I like how they've knocked off both the Cowboys and Eagles on the road. As long as they don't do a reverse of last year and finish the season ice cold, they should make the playoffs.
7. Colts
A bit of a resurgence here for the Colts after spanking the Ravens. Their offensive line is getting healthy again, which is huge for the hobbled Manning. Their defense still has some questions, but as long as they keep Manning upright long enough to find Harrison and Wayne, they could look like the Colts of old.
6. Chargers
The toe injury to Tomlinson is worrisome. But Phillip Rivers is starting to look like the real deal at QB. Impressive win over the Patriots. It almost looks as if the AFC West is theirs for the taking again.
5. Steelers
They're banged up pretty badly, but somehow managed to squeeze out the last few wins. They could be dropping like a rock really soon, but I'm not too impressed with the rest of the AFC North at this point.
4. Bucanneers
I will spare you the Jeff Garcia joke in this power rankings item. However, expect the running gag (as unfunny as it may be) to return during this week's picks. In the meantime, somehow the Bucs defense looks pretty formidable again. And Warrick Dunn has found the Fountain of Youth.
3. Bills
I believe it was Week 2 when I said the Bills will win the AFC East. They hit a little stumble in Arizona, but I still believe this. Sad to say, but in the end, I think the Patriots are going to have a hard time over-coming the loss of Brady. The Bills get Trent Edwards back this week, which should help.
2. Giants
Minor fall after a bad road game on Monday night. I still think they're probably one of the best teams in the league. But a few more poor road showings like that, and maybe the NFC East is even more wide open than most people thought.
1. Titans
Presenting your starting QB of the #1 ranked NFL team - Kerry Collins! Seriously though, this team is doing it with hard-nosed defense and a solid running game. I've always liked Jeff Fisher, so it's good to see his team on top again. It'll be interesting to see their remaining AFC South games, especially against the Colts.
Playoff Teams:
(Going out on a limb here with the Falcons claiming a wild card, but I'm thinking the Cowboys are in deep trouble with Romo hurt and Pacman suspended..)
AFC: Titans, Steelers, Bills, Chargers, Jets, Colts
NFC: Giants, Bucanneers, Packers, Cardinals, Falcons, Redskins
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Whoops
Some of you may have noticed that our blog is missing. I'm hoping St. Ides can take a look at this mess and fix it. The good news is all of our data and archives are where they should be, and it appears that only our template has gone slightly bonkers. Thanks all! Samichlaus
Friday, October 10, 2008
Week 6 Picks (in two acts) (second act now available)
Okay, so the annual 5/16th Season Team Rankings will be a week late. Next week it'll be the 6/16th Season Team Rankings, and the extra game should allow me an even better idea of where things stand, especially with some key matchups this week.
First of all, let me apologize for the cheap shot I took at Anonymous last week. The truth is he is an integral part of this blog, and we miss his comments. So what happens? Anon posts a comment and the Steves have nothing to say. Double ouchers. Second, this week Ol' Samichlaus committed a cardinal sin of IT: my computer appeared to be a bit thirsty on Wednesday, so in the middle of a presentation to a client I proceded to share a cup of coffee with my laptop. The computer did a Lincolesque "death rattle", shut itself off, and effectively curtailed my presentation. As a result I am currently residing in the fifth layer of Vista hell, where half of the work I need to do must be done from inside a 32 bit XP virtual machine I set up for said purpose.
Welcome to my nightmare...
After a nice week, Samichlaus pulls 1 game ahead on the season. We could be going back and forth all year, folks. That's what I call mediocre picking at its finest.
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 9-5
St. Ides: 6-8
Overall:
Samichlaus: 30-31
St. Ides: 29-32
Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2) -5.5
I would have been tempted to take the Bengals and the points this week over a Jets team I'm not quite sold on. Then I heard Carson Palmer is out, and that Fitzgerald guy will be the Bungles QB again. So yeah, I'll lay the points. Jets 24, Bungles 16.
After Brett the Jet had a career game two weeks ago, the well rested Jets should have no problems with Cincinnati. Besides, what can you say about a team that comes from a city that puts cinnamon and chocolate in their chili? I'll be tuning in to this one for my early game on Sunday... which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Jets 31 Bengals 20
St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1) -13.5
This one has trap game written all over it. The Rams can't be THAT bad, can they? They're coming off a bye and it'll be their first game since they fired Linehan. The Redskins have knocked off the Cowboys and Eagles both on the road. I'm taking the points. Skins 23, Rams 13.
I like the analysis, but I'm going to disagree: I think the Rams ARE that bad, and the coaching change isn't going to help. In fact, I'll bet the initial impact is going to be detrimental. Jim Zorn continues to impress, and the Skins are starting to believe in their coach. It's going to be a happy Sunday in DC which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Skins 27 Rams 10
Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3) -7.5
Would you believe the Saints are in last place in the NFC South at 2-3? Yep, it's true. And Drew Brees is still on pace to set the single-season passing yardage record. He gets back Marques Colston this week, which should help. Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a weird place. They fired Lane Kiffin before last week's bye (just like the Rams) but QB JaMarcus Russell told reporters he still talks to Kiffin on the phone and Kiffin has been coaching him this week. What the....?! Anyways, the Saints need a win badly, and I think they cover. Saints 30, Raiders 16.
Dead on analysis above. The Russell - Kiffin thing borders on the bizarre, which is completely in order for the Raiders. New Orleans comes off a tough Monday night loss to the Vikings despite the almost unfathomable performance by Reggie Bush, so yes, they are going to be primed for dominance this week. The Saints win and cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary..
Saints 34 Raiders 13
Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4) -3.5
In my "money pool" where I pick 5 games each week, I lost 3 games by half a point last week. Including the Texans losing by 4 (they were getting 3.5) to the Colts when Sage Rosenfals self-destructed and turned the ball over 3 times in like 45 seconds. Ugh. Anyways, I think the Dolphins are probably about due for a stinker, and the Texans really aren't as bad as their record. Texans 27, Dolphins 20.
Why are the Dolphins due for a stinker? In the last two weeks they've knocked off New England and San Diego, two of the best teams in the AFC. Meanwhile the Texans keep finding ways to lose, and I can't blame that pear shaped big ass Mike Sherman anymore. Sherman coaches at Texas A&M who plays on Saturdays. This Sunday you can find Sherman at the local "Golden Corrall, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Dolphins 24 Texans 17
Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2) -4.5
The Colts needed the aforementioned Sage Rosenfals meltdown to pull out last week's game. I think Vegas is setting these spreads based upon the past reputation of the Colts, not this season's reality. Colts lose outright. Ravens 23, Colts 20.
I like Baltimore and the points as well. What on earth is going on in Indy? The days of that offense doing whatever it wants seems to be a thing of the past. Peytie-pie has been nothing short of mediocre, which is a good thing. He was getting a little big headed don't you think? Manning is looking for a big game on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary, but it ain't going to be enough to cover.
Colts 27 Baltimore 24
Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2) +2.5
I have no clue what to think about either of these teams. Kyle Orton has looked decent at QB for the Bears, which is shocking. Yet Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have made the Falcons offense look pretty good themselves. I don't know much more than that, so I'll take the home points. Falcons 23, Bears 20.
Honestly I'm not surprised by Kyle Orton, who as I've said before simply wins football games. The Falcons on the other hand have been a surprise. In fact they shocked the shit out of me last week by beating the Packers at home, but a lot of that had to do with the matador defense the Pack seemed to be playing. There's no way the Bears are going to let a rookie QB beat them Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Bears 20 Falcons 13
Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3) -13.5
The Lions are really really bad. But I'll take two TDs against a divisional rival with a shaky QB any time. Almost any time. Vikings 23, Lions 10.
I won't waste too much time on this either except to say that yes, two TDs against a division rival is too much even on a Sunday which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Vikings 30 Detroit 20
Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) -1.5
Key NFC South matchup. Somehow, Jeff Garcia is still behind Brian Griese on the Tampa Bay depth chart. (Though Griese should make sure he doesn't let Garica behind him in the shower.) Carolina looks like they have their usual solid defense back in place, and Jake Delhomme gives them just enough consistency on offense. I like the Cats. Panthers 23, Bucs 20.
Thank you St. Ides for the weekly Jeff-Garcia-is-Gay cheap shot. I heard he fathered a child with that guy from "Idol"... or was it with Brady Anderson? I forget. Anyway, I like the Cats as well. Tampa is tough at home, but these are similar teams who play similar defense. In other words there's no surprises in store thus Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Cats 27 Bucs 23
Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1) -3.5
Cutler has looked pretty good so far. David Garrard, who I was never sold on despite his sparkling TD-to-Int ratio last year, has not. The Jags running game has also sucked, which is unusual. I'll take the Broncos and the high altitude. Broncos 27, Jaguars 17.
Just take any analysis I've done for Denver at home over the course of the last 4 seasons and insert it here. I always like Denver at home and this week is no exception. 3.5 should be easy enough for the Broncos to cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Broncos 23 Jags 17
Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3) -2.5
Two desperate teams. Seattle was absolutely embarrassed last week by the Giants, and I sat through the whole game in person. It was brutal. The secondary looked lost. Their #2 CB, be it Kelly Jennings or Josh Wilson, has been abused all season. (It doesn't help that they're both about as tall as Doug Flutie.) The last time these two teams met, Ryan Grant ran over Seattle and eliminated them from the playoffs. At the time, I thought it was a legitimate excuse that the small "built for speed" Seahawks defense was at a huge disadvantage on the snow-slick field. Now? I'm not so sure they just don't completely suck all around. If Seattle has anything going for them it's that the Green Bay defense is horribly battered, Holmgren has been laying into the team all week in practice, and they still do have the loudest home crowd in the league. I'm quickly losing faith in this team. A loss here, and I'll be starting to look at potential first round draft picks next spring and hope that when Jim Mora Jr. takes over the reigns as head coach, he'll hire a defensive coordinator who isn't afraid to blitz. Packers 49, Seahawks 20.
WTF? You laid out a perfect case for a Seattle win and then predict a Packer victory? I've got to say, I didn't expect the Seahawks to roll over like little bitches against the mighty Giants. You poor, poor bastard. What a game to see. I mean Jesus H. Christ in a chicken basket. Anyway, here's why I think Seattle wins this week. First, Aaron Rodgers is still hurt and almost came out of the Falcons game. Although he played well at times, he was awful at other times ("I didn't have enough arm on a few passes" he said) Second, he's never played in a stadium as loud as Seattles. Third, Mike Holmgren is a better coach than Mike McArthy, who appears to be coaching as usual this week. Fourth, the Packers running game has been terrible, and to win against Seattle you've got to run the ball. Finally, the Packers defense has been abysmal, and the fans are clamoring for defensive coordinator Bob Sanders's head. Again. One more disastrous performance on Sunday (which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary) by this D and I'll be clamoring for it as well.
Seattle 30 Green Bay 27
Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3) +4.5
Brian Westbrook won't be playing, and that's huge. The Niners are a weird team. But I really don't trust the Eagles on the west coast without Westbrook giving points. Eagles 23, Niners 20.
I don't buy it. I think the Eagles will be just fine against the Niners with or without Westbrook. They're a better team than their 2-3 record indicates. The Niners on the other hand are worse than their record indicates. I like Philly by a TD this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Eagles 23 Niners 15
Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2) +5.5
Did someone around here say the Cowboys were overrated? Oh yeah, that was me. They lose to the Skins at home and then struggle a bit against the Bungles? I'll take the Cardinals and the points. Even though I'd like the Cardinals to lose so Seattle stays close in the NFC West, I think they might just win this game totally. Cardinals 30, Cowboys 29.
St. Ides was right and Ol' Samichlaus was wrong: The Cowboys have come back to earth just as he predicted. But the Cardinals beating them outright? First of all the 'Boys are the better team. Second, it's going to be like a home game for them in AZ this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary. I like Dallas by a TD at least.
Dallas 34 Arizona 27.
New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) -5.5
The Patriots are not as dead as Anonymous might have us believe. Plus, Norv Turner is still a pretty horrible coach. I think the Patriots D ought to be able to give Phillip Rivers a bit of trouble and they usually do a pretty good job containing Tomlinson. Speaking of running backs.. Has anybody seen Maroney lately? I made the mistake of drafting him in my fantasy league, and he's been frickin invisible. (Luckily I also got Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte in late rounds, so me team is doing well.) Patriots 23, Chargers 20.
Last year I called Maroney the best young back in the league. So I read St. Ides's comments and did a little research and found this:
"Laurence Maroney says there's a very good reason he's not running the ball particularly well for the New England Patriots.And that's just about all he'll say on a subject that has been irritating Patriots fans all season long.
"Hey, I have my issues," Maroney said Friday before New England finished up its final practice at San Jose State, the Pats' home between last weekend's win over the 49ers and Sunday night's trip to face the San Diego Chargers. "There are reasons," said Maroney, who has just 93 yards rushing in three appearances for New England (3-1). "I'd rather not speak about them, but there are reasons."
Jeez. OK, read the article here.
Meanwhile, this Sunday night (when I'm hoping to be poking the luscious Mrs. Samichlaus on our 6th anniversary) take the Pats and the points.
Bolts 31 Patriots 30
NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3) +7.5
Good luck, Browns! The Giants looked frickin unbeatable last week. Their offensive line is awesome, and they were blowing open HUGE holes to run through. I don't want to spend too much time thinking about that game any more, or I'll get depressed. But yeah, the Browns don't have a prayer. Giants 27, Browns 10.
Let's forget all about last week and think happy thoughts like puppy dogs farting rainbows. As much as I admire the Giants, a TD on the road is an awful lot. I'll go the other way here, because Cleveland is so tough at home. This is a good Monday night game, which happens to be a day after me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Giants 24 Cleveland 20
First of all, let me apologize for the cheap shot I took at Anonymous last week. The truth is he is an integral part of this blog, and we miss his comments. So what happens? Anon posts a comment and the Steves have nothing to say. Double ouchers. Second, this week Ol' Samichlaus committed a cardinal sin of IT: my computer appeared to be a bit thirsty on Wednesday, so in the middle of a presentation to a client I proceded to share a cup of coffee with my laptop. The computer did a Lincolesque "death rattle", shut itself off, and effectively curtailed my presentation. As a result I am currently residing in the fifth layer of Vista hell, where half of the work I need to do must be done from inside a 32 bit XP virtual machine I set up for said purpose.
Welcome to my nightmare...
After a nice week, Samichlaus pulls 1 game ahead on the season. We could be going back and forth all year, folks. That's what I call mediocre picking at its finest.
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 9-5
St. Ides: 6-8
Overall:
Samichlaus: 30-31
St. Ides: 29-32
Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2) -5.5
I would have been tempted to take the Bengals and the points this week over a Jets team I'm not quite sold on. Then I heard Carson Palmer is out, and that Fitzgerald guy will be the Bungles QB again. So yeah, I'll lay the points. Jets 24, Bungles 16.
After Brett the Jet had a career game two weeks ago, the well rested Jets should have no problems with Cincinnati. Besides, what can you say about a team that comes from a city that puts cinnamon and chocolate in their chili? I'll be tuning in to this one for my early game on Sunday... which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Jets 31 Bengals 20
St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1) -13.5
This one has trap game written all over it. The Rams can't be THAT bad, can they? They're coming off a bye and it'll be their first game since they fired Linehan. The Redskins have knocked off the Cowboys and Eagles both on the road. I'm taking the points. Skins 23, Rams 13.
I like the analysis, but I'm going to disagree: I think the Rams ARE that bad, and the coaching change isn't going to help. In fact, I'll bet the initial impact is going to be detrimental. Jim Zorn continues to impress, and the Skins are starting to believe in their coach. It's going to be a happy Sunday in DC which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Skins 27 Rams 10
Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3) -7.5
Would you believe the Saints are in last place in the NFC South at 2-3? Yep, it's true. And Drew Brees is still on pace to set the single-season passing yardage record. He gets back Marques Colston this week, which should help. Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a weird place. They fired Lane Kiffin before last week's bye (just like the Rams) but QB JaMarcus Russell told reporters he still talks to Kiffin on the phone and Kiffin has been coaching him this week. What the....?! Anyways, the Saints need a win badly, and I think they cover. Saints 30, Raiders 16.
Dead on analysis above. The Russell - Kiffin thing borders on the bizarre, which is completely in order for the Raiders. New Orleans comes off a tough Monday night loss to the Vikings despite the almost unfathomable performance by Reggie Bush, so yes, they are going to be primed for dominance this week. The Saints win and cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary..
Saints 34 Raiders 13
Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4) -3.5
In my "money pool" where I pick 5 games each week, I lost 3 games by half a point last week. Including the Texans losing by 4 (they were getting 3.5) to the Colts when Sage Rosenfals self-destructed and turned the ball over 3 times in like 45 seconds. Ugh. Anyways, I think the Dolphins are probably about due for a stinker, and the Texans really aren't as bad as their record. Texans 27, Dolphins 20.
Why are the Dolphins due for a stinker? In the last two weeks they've knocked off New England and San Diego, two of the best teams in the AFC. Meanwhile the Texans keep finding ways to lose, and I can't blame that pear shaped big ass Mike Sherman anymore. Sherman coaches at Texas A&M who plays on Saturdays. This Sunday you can find Sherman at the local "Golden Corrall, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Dolphins 24 Texans 17
Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2) -4.5
The Colts needed the aforementioned Sage Rosenfals meltdown to pull out last week's game. I think Vegas is setting these spreads based upon the past reputation of the Colts, not this season's reality. Colts lose outright. Ravens 23, Colts 20.
I like Baltimore and the points as well. What on earth is going on in Indy? The days of that offense doing whatever it wants seems to be a thing of the past. Peytie-pie has been nothing short of mediocre, which is a good thing. He was getting a little big headed don't you think? Manning is looking for a big game on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary, but it ain't going to be enough to cover.
Colts 27 Baltimore 24
Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2) +2.5
I have no clue what to think about either of these teams. Kyle Orton has looked decent at QB for the Bears, which is shocking. Yet Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have made the Falcons offense look pretty good themselves. I don't know much more than that, so I'll take the home points. Falcons 23, Bears 20.
Honestly I'm not surprised by Kyle Orton, who as I've said before simply wins football games. The Falcons on the other hand have been a surprise. In fact they shocked the shit out of me last week by beating the Packers at home, but a lot of that had to do with the matador defense the Pack seemed to be playing. There's no way the Bears are going to let a rookie QB beat them Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Bears 20 Falcons 13
Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3) -13.5
The Lions are really really bad. But I'll take two TDs against a divisional rival with a shaky QB any time. Almost any time. Vikings 23, Lions 10.
I won't waste too much time on this either except to say that yes, two TDs against a division rival is too much even on a Sunday which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Vikings 30 Detroit 20
Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) -1.5
Key NFC South matchup. Somehow, Jeff Garcia is still behind Brian Griese on the Tampa Bay depth chart. (Though Griese should make sure he doesn't let Garica behind him in the shower.) Carolina looks like they have their usual solid defense back in place, and Jake Delhomme gives them just enough consistency on offense. I like the Cats. Panthers 23, Bucs 20.
Thank you St. Ides for the weekly Jeff-Garcia-is-Gay cheap shot. I heard he fathered a child with that guy from "Idol"... or was it with Brady Anderson? I forget. Anyway, I like the Cats as well. Tampa is tough at home, but these are similar teams who play similar defense. In other words there's no surprises in store thus Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Cats 27 Bucs 23
Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1) -3.5
Cutler has looked pretty good so far. David Garrard, who I was never sold on despite his sparkling TD-to-Int ratio last year, has not. The Jags running game has also sucked, which is unusual. I'll take the Broncos and the high altitude. Broncos 27, Jaguars 17.
Just take any analysis I've done for Denver at home over the course of the last 4 seasons and insert it here. I always like Denver at home and this week is no exception. 3.5 should be easy enough for the Broncos to cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Broncos 23 Jags 17
Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3) -2.5
Two desperate teams. Seattle was absolutely embarrassed last week by the Giants, and I sat through the whole game in person. It was brutal. The secondary looked lost. Their #2 CB, be it Kelly Jennings or Josh Wilson, has been abused all season. (It doesn't help that they're both about as tall as Doug Flutie.) The last time these two teams met, Ryan Grant ran over Seattle and eliminated them from the playoffs. At the time, I thought it was a legitimate excuse that the small "built for speed" Seahawks defense was at a huge disadvantage on the snow-slick field. Now? I'm not so sure they just don't completely suck all around. If Seattle has anything going for them it's that the Green Bay defense is horribly battered, Holmgren has been laying into the team all week in practice, and they still do have the loudest home crowd in the league. I'm quickly losing faith in this team. A loss here, and I'll be starting to look at potential first round draft picks next spring and hope that when Jim Mora Jr. takes over the reigns as head coach, he'll hire a defensive coordinator who isn't afraid to blitz. Packers 49, Seahawks 20.
WTF? You laid out a perfect case for a Seattle win and then predict a Packer victory? I've got to say, I didn't expect the Seahawks to roll over like little bitches against the mighty Giants. You poor, poor bastard. What a game to see. I mean Jesus H. Christ in a chicken basket. Anyway, here's why I think Seattle wins this week. First, Aaron Rodgers is still hurt and almost came out of the Falcons game. Although he played well at times, he was awful at other times ("I didn't have enough arm on a few passes" he said) Second, he's never played in a stadium as loud as Seattles. Third, Mike Holmgren is a better coach than Mike McArthy, who appears to be coaching as usual this week. Fourth, the Packers running game has been terrible, and to win against Seattle you've got to run the ball. Finally, the Packers defense has been abysmal, and the fans are clamoring for defensive coordinator Bob Sanders's head. Again. One more disastrous performance on Sunday (which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary) by this D and I'll be clamoring for it as well.
Seattle 30 Green Bay 27
Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3) +4.5
Brian Westbrook won't be playing, and that's huge. The Niners are a weird team. But I really don't trust the Eagles on the west coast without Westbrook giving points. Eagles 23, Niners 20.
I don't buy it. I think the Eagles will be just fine against the Niners with or without Westbrook. They're a better team than their 2-3 record indicates. The Niners on the other hand are worse than their record indicates. I like Philly by a TD this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Eagles 23 Niners 15
Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2) +5.5
Did someone around here say the Cowboys were overrated? Oh yeah, that was me. They lose to the Skins at home and then struggle a bit against the Bungles? I'll take the Cardinals and the points. Even though I'd like the Cardinals to lose so Seattle stays close in the NFC West, I think they might just win this game totally. Cardinals 30, Cowboys 29.
St. Ides was right and Ol' Samichlaus was wrong: The Cowboys have come back to earth just as he predicted. But the Cardinals beating them outright? First of all the 'Boys are the better team. Second, it's going to be like a home game for them in AZ this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary. I like Dallas by a TD at least.
Dallas 34 Arizona 27.
New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) -5.5
The Patriots are not as dead as Anonymous might have us believe. Plus, Norv Turner is still a pretty horrible coach. I think the Patriots D ought to be able to give Phillip Rivers a bit of trouble and they usually do a pretty good job containing Tomlinson. Speaking of running backs.. Has anybody seen Maroney lately? I made the mistake of drafting him in my fantasy league, and he's been frickin invisible. (Luckily I also got Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte in late rounds, so me team is doing well.) Patriots 23, Chargers 20.
Last year I called Maroney the best young back in the league. So I read St. Ides's comments and did a little research and found this:
"Laurence Maroney says there's a very good reason he's not running the ball particularly well for the New England Patriots.And that's just about all he'll say on a subject that has been irritating Patriots fans all season long.
"Hey, I have my issues," Maroney said Friday before New England finished up its final practice at San Jose State, the Pats' home between last weekend's win over the 49ers and Sunday night's trip to face the San Diego Chargers. "There are reasons," said Maroney, who has just 93 yards rushing in three appearances for New England (3-1). "I'd rather not speak about them, but there are reasons."
Jeez. OK, read the article here.
Meanwhile, this Sunday night (when I'm hoping to be poking the luscious Mrs. Samichlaus on our 6th anniversary) take the Pats and the points.
Bolts 31 Patriots 30
NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3) +7.5
Good luck, Browns! The Giants looked frickin unbeatable last week. Their offensive line is awesome, and they were blowing open HUGE holes to run through. I don't want to spend too much time thinking about that game any more, or I'll get depressed. But yeah, the Browns don't have a prayer. Giants 27, Browns 10.
Let's forget all about last week and think happy thoughts like puppy dogs farting rainbows. As much as I admire the Giants, a TD on the road is an awful lot. I'll go the other way here, because Cleveland is so tough at home. This is a good Monday night game, which happens to be a day after me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Giants 24 Cleveland 20
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