Week 7 Picks (Part One) (and Part Two)

We're still waiting for that one "Wow, they were right on!" week to happen for one of us... Maybe this will be the week. Those huge spreads make it rough. Last week Dallas covered 12.5 (over Houston) and San Diego covererd 10.5 (over San Fran). But the Skins didn't cover 9.5 (lost the game outright to Tennessee), Denver couldn't cover 14.5 (at home against god awful Oakland), and the Bears SHOULD have lost in Arizona, giving 10.5. Ah well, that's why it's called gambling, right?

Anonymous is right, this is a weird, hard to predict season. The thing I like about parity is that it forces teams to out smart rather than out spend the opposition in order to succeed. Unfortunately that's also what's killing Green Bay. It was nice when Ron Wolf was the GM, but 6 years of Mike Sherman and Ted Thompson have all but killed the franchise. We didn't even stop at mediocre on the way to God awful. Anyway, as St. Ides slowly closes the gap, on to the picks...

Last Week:
St. Ides: 8-5
Samichlaus: 7-6

Overall:
Samichlaus: 31-26
St. Ides: 26-31

BUCCANEERS over Eagles -4.5
Samichlaus said I must have gone "off the deep end" for picking the Bucs at home last week against the Bengals. Now I gave the Bengals the win, but took the points. But guess what. They won the whole game! Meanwhile the Eagles lost to the surprise Saints. So are the Eagles for real? How about this rookie Bucs QB who might take over Simms Jr's job permanently? I have no idea. When in doubt, home team and points. Eagles 24, Bucs 20.

I'm still not over the shock of that Bengals game. Kudos to St. Ides for seeing what I seeing what I could not see. So guess what? I'm going the other way. I'll take the Eagles and the points. Eagles 27 Bucs 20

FALCONS +1.5 over Steelers
I took the Falcons at home last week against the Giants as one of my "pool" picks last week. Needless to say, they burnt me. (Side note: Not sure if I've mentioned this yet, but I'm in an actual money pool. You pick 5 games every week. Any 5 games you want. To win the weekly prize, so far you need to get all 5 games right, and then win the Monday night tie-breaker points. Typically 3-5 people get all 5 right (out of 70ish people in the pool). The weekly prize is $250. There's also an overall yearly prize of about $5000. After 6 weeks, I haven't done better than 4-1 (and that only once), and stand at a horrible 13-17. My dad is tied for first at 22-8. So yeah, I suck. Back to the picks...) Big Ben loooked rejuvenated. The Falcons looked awful. Which means it's time to throw that upside down this week. Or something like that. Falcons 20, Steelers 17.

I hate to do this to my wife, but I read last week that the Steeler fans (in the tradition of Jerome "The Bus" Bettis) have given Najeh Davenport a new nickname: "The Dump Truck". Gol, that's just unfortunate. The Falcons are a mess and the Steelers are just getting better: Steelers 31 M.V.S.D. 17

Panthers +3.5 over BENGALS
Suddenly Carson Palmer and the Bengals aren't looking so hot. Their defense is pretty bad. (And it was pretty bad last year too, they just happened to get a TON of turnovers, which is about 50% luck.) And Chad Johnson has been eerily quiet. Meanwhile the Panthers started 0-2 (without Steve Smith) and are 4-0 since (with Steve Smith). The Bengals need this game more than the Panthers, so I'm going with that, but they're not good enough to cover. Bengals 29, Panthers 27.

Palmer's had two mediocre games in a row and this is a tough defense to get right against. Tight contest, but I'll gamble that Palmer isn't going to be mediocre three weeks in a row. Bengals 27 Panthers 21

Patriots -5.5 over BILLS
After a promising start, the Bills have settled back in right around where they should be - the botom third of the league. Patriots probably have a little extra incentive to prove that the close game between these two in Foxboro in Week 1 was a fluke. Although with every passing week, Tom Brady probably misses Deion Branch a bit more. (Did I mention he had 2 HUGE touchdowns last week for Seattle?) Patriots 23, Bills 16.

I like the Pats too, big time. It's the SBS "Kiss of death" for Anonymous: Pats 27 Bills 10

Lions +3.5 over JETS
The Jets keep winning. And they keep playing crappy teams it seems. Although the Dolphins came pretty close to sending the game to OT last week. Whatever, I can't get too excited analyzing this game. Jets are due to lose to a bad team. Lions 30, Jets 20.

I like the Jets at home against a crappy NFC team that even the Packers whooped. They're good enough to handle the Matt Millon all stars with ease. Jets 34 Lions 20

Packers +4.5 over DOLPHINS
Oh, check this out. Last week, there were 6 teams that had a bye. This week, again, there are 6 teams that have a bye. Why do I mention this? Because the NFL, in their money-grubbing wisdom, decided to increase the number of bye teams from 4 to 6 for two weeks this season, so the byes end a week earlier. All for TV ratings and more money. Why do I mention this now? Cause it's wreaking absolute havok on my fantasy team. The following "starters" for me all have byes this week: Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Antonio Bryant, Bernard Berrian, and John Carney. I'm going to have to drop one of those just because I can't fit them all on the bench. Ugh. Anyways, I am reminded of this because I am starting Brett Favre this week, and hope he doesn't throw too many picks. Which he shouldn't. This Dolphins D isn't as good as years past, and their offense pretty much sucks. If the Packers hope to salvage this season and give their fans any hope at all, they need to win this game. Packers 30, Dolphins 23.

I'm not sure who Favre is going to be throwing to this week. Robinson is gone, Ferguson is out for the season, Green is coming back from an injury. That leaves Driver and Jennings, and Driver hasn't had a good game in 4 weeks. Meanwhile, my Father in Law who is a die hard Dolphins fan is coming over the house to watch the game and he usually carries a weapon. You gotta love the south. PS: if the Packers get behind, Favre will throw picks. He's a lot more diciplined this season but he's still a gunslinger at heart. I'll take the Packers and the Points: Dolphins 24 Packers 23.

TEXANS +9.5 over Jaguars
I took Houston last week getting a ton of points at home, and regretted it. Let's see if I can make it two weeks in a row. Jaguars 24, Texans 16.

I don't know... another who cares game. I'll take the Jags D over that overrated pretty boy. Jags 24 Texans 10

CHIEFS +5.5 over Chargers
Conventional wisdom says home field advantage is worth like 3 points. In KC, one of the toughest places to play, I'd say it's closer to 6 points. So are you telling me the Chargers are like 11 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field? I'm not quite buying it. Phillip Rivers is due for a bad game on the road. Chiefs 24, Chargers 23.

I agree. Rivers ain't never heard anything like the noise at Arrowhead and it's going to throw him off. If the Cheifs don't win outright, they'll keep it close. Cheifs 31 Bolts 27

Broncos -4.5 over BROWNS
There are 13 games this week (including no Sunday night game due to the frickin World Series). 7 home dogs. They can't all cover. No way. Broncos didn't blow away the Raiders in Denver. They should bounce back. Though I do think the Browns are better than people think. Broncos 27, Browns 20.

I'm going to take the Browns at home simply because Denver (all together now) sucks on the road. The Browns will win outright: Browns 24 Denver 23

COLTS -9.5 over Redskins
Redskins just lost to the frickin Titans in DC. They look awful. Colts haven't exactly been blowing people away, and their run D is horrible with Corey Simon done for the year. I'm very tempted to take the Skins, but yeah, the Colts are due to blow a team away. And might as well be the Skins. (I've said "they're due to whatever" way too much in this week's picks. Oh well, I'm due to be right about a few things.) Colts 30, Skins 16.

LOL! I'm due to agree with you on one of these picks but not this one. I'll take Washington and the points: Colts 34 Skins 30

Cardinals -3.5 over RAIDERS
Raiders showed some life in Denver. Cardinals absolutely collapses in that loss to the Bears. The only thing interesting about this game is which coach will be fired first, Denny Green or Art Shell? Matt Leinart looked pretty damn good though. I wonder if the Raiders regret passing on him now... He might have something to proove. Cardinals 27, Raiders 20.

Denny Green sounded like he was going to have a nervous breakdown after the Bears game. Actually, it was kind of funny. He reminded me of Howard Dean. Anyway, the Raiders are pretty awful and so are the Cardinals, but Mat Leinert is pretty mature for a young QB, and that's all I need. It's the Samichlaus stinker of the season: Cardinals 31 Raiders 20

Vikings +6.5 over SEAHAWKS
Samichlaus says give it up with the reverse jinx. But this year, my reverse jinx picks are 2-2 and Seattle is 3-1, so I'll stick with it for now. For those of you who missed the end of last week's game, here's a quick recap: Seattle up 6 (after coming back from a 21-7 halftime score by the way), Rams have the ball deep in their territory with about 5 minutes left. And seem poised to drive. But UH OH! There's Lofa Tatupu picking off a pass intended for Torry Holt and taking it to the Rams 20! Seattle grinds the ball inside the 10. Rams burn 2 timeouts. Just before the 2-minute warning, 3rd and 1. Mo Morris runs left, picks up the first down, and as he's going down, he falls forward into the legs of a defender. The ball pops hits the defender's knee, pops loose, Rams recover. The announcers (obviously Rams fans) gush on and on about how Leonard Little made the big play of stripping the ball, even as the replay shows Little was wrapped around Morris' legs, his arms not near the ball, and it was the knee that knocked the ball loose. Holmgren challenges the call (and it wasn't even close). The play stands. Seattle loses it's last timeout. If they just take a knee there, they kick a figgy and go up by 9. Game over. So instead, Bulger throws a bomb, safety Michael Boulware goes for the pick rather than bat it away, Torry Holt makes a ridiculous juggling catch and jobs into the end zone. Rams up by 1, about 1:40 left. No timeouts for Seattle. Yet somehow, some way, Matt Hasselbeck carves apart the Rams defense. 19 yards here, 12 here, 15 here. Next thing you know, they're inside the Rams 35, and spike the ball with like 20 seconds left. So, in a call that could have been questioned had the turnout been different, they call another play. Rush Mack Strong right for a couple more yards. But tick tick tick tick tick! Clock is ticking! Seattle lines up! Snaps the ball, Hasselbeck spikes it. Rams rookie coach Scott Linehan is jumping up and down, and runs over to a lineman hollering for a flag. And gets it! (Why does the NFL even pay the refs if they let the coaches make the calls?) "Game over! Game over!" the Rams coach hollers as he jumps up and down like a moron. The referee calmly turns on his microphone and explains, "It is NOT game over. The penalty is for an illegal formation, not a false start. There is no 10-second clock run-off for that penalty. The illegal formation penalty allows the play to continue, so the play did happen. The ball was spiked and the clock was stopped. Now, after the play, the 5-yard penalty will be enforced." So the kick goes from a 49 yarder to a 54 yarder - a big difference. Anyways, Josh Brown calmly strolls onto the field and nails it (with plenty of leg to spare). What's my point: 2 things: 1) Thank GOD that referee (Ed Hochuli) knew what he was doing. I'm convinced 9 out of 10 refs would have blown that call, and given the Rams coach the 10-second run-off he was begging for. 2) The Seahawks 2 years ago lose that game. The Seahawks last year win that game. So I'm happy to see they're more like last year's team.

Now, with that long-ass paragraph said, it's time for the Hutch Bowl! No way Seattle loses this game. And expect Hutch to be embarassed at least twice. He's trying to downplay it in the media (refusing to talk to Seattle media by claiming "This game isn't about me, there's 50 other players on my team"). But you're crazy if you don't think Holmgren wants this game badly. In Seattle, with a sputtering offense, the Vikings don't have much of a chance. Seahawks 30, Vikings 24.

Shit, I had to get up and pee twice during that read. Uhh, I don't know what else I can add except to say that I think Seattle will cover. Seattle 34 Viqueens 23

Giants +3.5 over COWBOYS
Giants showed me something in Atlanta last week. Their rushing game and pass rush both came to life. And if anybody is vulnerable to a good pass rush, it's Drew Bledsoe. Over/under on how many times he's sacked is 5.5. And I'll take the over. Giants 20, Cowboys 17.

Both teams will be ready. Both coaches know each other very well. Both teams are evenly matched. But only one team has T.O. and that's the difference. Cowboys 24 Giants 20