The Big Game - Super Bowl Predicitons!

Allright, I've been long-winded enough this week, so let's cut to the chase. Super Bowl predictions!

I'll let Samichlaus go first, since I'm sucking with my playoff picks so far. Not that I care about my pick score at this point...

As the 1996 season progressed and it became evident that the Packers were amongst the elite, a lot of attention was paid to their 47 year old coach Mike Holmgren. Predictably before each game the networks would trot out a piece of eye candy to ask the coach “What do you think the key to winning this game is?” Equally predictable was Holmgren’s answer, and this is almost verbatim: “These are two good football teams out here today. It’s going to come down to special teams and turnovers. I think the team with the fewest turnovers will win”

This is how Super Bowl XL will play out.

The Steelers have one of the best young defenders in the game right now in Safety Troy Polamalu, and one of the best defensive coordinators in the game with Dick Lebeau. They play a 3-4 defense that’s similar to the scheme Dallas plays. That would be the same Dallas Cowboys that shut Seattle down earlier this season, well at least for the first 3 quarters. The Seahawks won that game with a furious fourth quarter comeback, but I remember thinking at the time “I wonder why more teams don’t play a 3-4”. Speaking of the Cowboys, I haven’t seen “Brokeback Mountain” yet but I hear it’s pretty good. When I read the reviews of the film I couldn’t help but think of ol’ Jimmy Johnson after his first Super Bowl win with Dallas, standing there at the mike and yelling “How ‘bout them Cowboys!”

I digress.

As good and complex a defense as Pittsburg has, they do not have Michel Boulware, Lofa Tatupu and Jordan Babineaux. These three player account for 10 of Seattle’s 16 interceptions and they will be the difference makers. Here’s why:

Every other category is a statistical wash.

Both quarterbacks are off the charts on fire, and neither one is named “Manning”.
Both defenses are shutting teams down.
Both offenses have stud running backs playing at the top of their games.
Both offenses have solid receivers who are consistent week in and week out.
Both teams are well coached.

A note about that last point… much has been made of Bill Cowher’s history of coach-choking in big games. Cowher is coaching at his best right now, and I just don’t see it happening.

This will be a close game. The crowd will heavily favor the Steelers, and in case you’re wondering, I’m sick of the whole Jerome Bettis angle as well. If the Steelers win, I’ll be happy for Bettis, but I have to tell you I’m not one of those “feel good story” guys. The feel good story I care about is the one that the long suffering St. Ides is writing. We’re rooting for the Seahawks at the Samichlaus household, for Mike Holmgren, for the NFC, but mostly for St. Ides. Seattle 27 Pittsburgh 20

I appreciate the support from the Samichlaus household! Thanks!

There's only one point Samichlaus makes that I'll disagree with:
"Both offenses have stud running backs playing at the top of their games."

I'm not sure if he's talking about Bettis of "Fast" Willie Parker here. But neither of them scare me. As I posted in the comments section of a previous item, if Willie is so damn fast, how come Parker has only had 12 runs of 15+ yards all season, including the playoffs? For comparison, Alexander had a run of at least 15 yards in every game he played the full game, except Dallas. And I'm sure he had multiple long runs in many of those games. The Steeler running game does not scare me at all.

What does scare me is Big Ben getting into a comfortable groove, with Seattle getting no pressure on him, and him getting enough time to pick apart the secondary. Considering our front four has generated pretty good pressure on their own all year, that's an unlikely scenario. What else scares me is turnovers. Particularly on punt and kickoff returns. We coughed up 2 punt returns and a kickoff return against the Redskins, and it could have easily cost us the game. Jimmy "Butterfingers" Williams was replaced on punt returns last game by the more reliable Peter Warrick, but it's still looming as a potential disaster spot.

Excluding the Packers game (when the bookies knew Seattle would be playing their second stringers), Seattle has been an underdog 3 times all season. Just 3. The last time being in Week 5, playing in St. Louis against the rival Rams. Seattle being the underdog makes it a bit tougher for me to work the reverse jinx magic.. When they're giving points, I can pick them to win the game outright, but not cover the spread. Now with them getting points, I'd have to pick the Steelers to win outright in order to cover. Quite the dilemma.

It's incredible to me that just about everybody in the media is picking the Steelers. It's as if nobody has watched Seattle at all this season, including their playoff wins.

At least the media seems to be mostly laughing off Joey Porter's latest antics. This guy was on the NFL Network last night. Porter was actually on the NFL network earlier tonight, right after Isaiah Kacyvenski (no, I'm not going to look up the correct spelling) and Bryce Fisher. Fisher and Isaiah basically shrugged off the comments and said, "No big deal." Then Porter came on and said they had no credibility because they went to Harvard and Air Force, not football powerhouses. (When was the last time Colorado State was any good anyways?)

Porter then proceeded to say he wasn't offended at all when he heard Seattle was already planning a victory parade, because both teams have to come in expecting to win. "You can't come in here expecting to lose, know what I'm sayin?" But then again said that Stevens talked "out of pocket" (whatever the hell that means) with his comments.

The guy can't even keep his story straight. Anybody got the Wonderlic scores handy for those 3 players?

I think Seattle is going to open a lot of eyes with their defense. The Steelers will be turned into a one-dimensional team, throwing the ball. You saw what they did to Jake Delhomme last game, who had the best career postseason QB rating ever going into that game. During the 3rd quarter of that game, they flashed his rating on the screen. It was under 10. And Delhomme is a seasoned veteran who has been to a Super Bowl.

Also, an interesting thing to watch is that Troy Polamalu "tweaked" his ankle at practice yesterday, and is now listed as "probable" on the injury report. No doubt he'll play, but if he's not at 100%, that's a tough break for the Steelers. That hurts them not just physically, but mentally as well. And look for Seattle to go after him early. Joey Porter wants to make stupid comments about "tasting blood", but when a key guy is injured, most teams are smart enough to attack that potential weakness, and maybe bang them up a little more. Keep an eye to see how his cutting ability looks, especially with that being one of Alexander's strengths.

Looking at the coaches, Samichlaus also makes a point I was going to make. That Cowher has been known for some big-time choke jobs in the playoffs, including losing multiple AFC Championship games at home. He made some calls in the Colts game I didn't agree with (like going for it on 4th and short several times right around midfield), but they panned out for him. When you get to the big game like this, coaching matters. And so does experience. Holmgren has been head coach in two Super Bowls with Green Bay (went 1-1), and a high level assistant in San Fran for two others (which the Niners won both of). There are more players on Seattle than Pittsburgh with Super Bowl experience, including veteran leaders Grant Wistrom and Joe Jurevicius, both of whom won as well. The only Steeler who's been to the big game is former Seahawk cornerback Willie Williams, who was cut twice by the Steelers this season, but brought back due to injuries. And the dude speaks about as eloquently as Gilbert Grape.

All the pressure in the world is on Pittsburgh - on Cowher, on Bettis, on Roethlisberger, on smack-taling Joey Porter, and on the entire franchise that's consistently come up short in the playoffs in recent history. Seattle is happy to be there, and enjoying the ride. Almost nobody is picking them to win. They're a 4 point underdog. The stands will be full of Steeler fans. And although maybe the "just happy to be there" mentality might be dangerous for a team that didn't expect to get to the Super Bowl, I think that deep down, the players and coaches knew they could do it. It's not a "We're just happy we got this far, so it doesn't matter if we lose" attitude. It's more of a "We're happy to be here, because this is so fucking cool. Nobody expects us to win, but let's show these bastards how good we are" type deal. If that makes any sense.

I'm fairly confident that Seattle can and will win this game. But you never know. This is Seattle, afterall. And turnovers and freak plays happen. And you gotta dance with the girl you took to the prom. Or something like that. The reverse jinx has gotten us this far. My last reverse jinx of the season, and let's hope it's a winner. Steelers 28, Seahawks 23.

And for the record, I'm not usually superstitious. But for the past two playoff games, I've worn the same green t-shirt, blue long sleeve shirt, shamrock covered boxers, and old comfortable jeans. Those clothes have been washed, and have been sitting alone in a draw in my dresser, awaiting this game. If Seattle wins Sunday, those clothes might have to be sent to the Hall of Fame.

Go Seahawks!