Weird stuff: I never got St. Ides picks last week, and never got around to doing my own. Now here it is on Sunday morning and I'm finally getting to these. Hmm... must be the holiday season 'cause Ol' Samichlaus finds himself spending a bit too much time dipping into the Christmas cheer with his favorite elf. Yep, things are sure active at the south pole this time of year.
A word about the Seahawks game: First, I would have taken the Seahawks. I honestly believe that the beat down New England put on the Pack effectively killed them. The Packers are done, and that will leave us in the same predicament we were in last season when in January, Packer nation collectively looked at their keyboards and typed "WTF?". Second, when the Pack managed 4 first half picks and held a mere 2 point lead as the teams trotted off the field I thought, "yep, they're done". But I would be remiss if I didn't point out a terrible roughing the passer call that had me screaming at the TV from my couch. Not that it matters, but up until that point there was a flicker of hope... a flicker.
Samichlaus' picks were MIA last week, so we'll judge overall standings by winning percentage now.
Last Week
St. Ides: 7-9
Samichlaus: 0-0
Overall
Samichlaus: 65-65 (.500)
St. Ides: 64-82 (.438)
BENGALS -3.5 over Ravens
Pretty good Thursday night game. At least on paper. This divisional matchup hasn't really turned into much of a rivalry because one or the other teams have mostly sucked in recent years. This year, the Ravens are surprisingly good and the Bengals have been a bit of a disappointment. I think the Bengals turn it around tonight, and this could be a decent rivalry in the making. Bengals 24, Ravens 20.
This one won't count for me... but I probably would have picked the Ravens.
Chiefs -4.5 over BROWNS
Browns were scuffling a bit on the sidelines last week, which is not good. Their passing game has some potential, but their defense and running game need work. The Chiefs aren't nearly as good on the road as at home. But I think a steady dose of LJ should be enough. Chiefs 27, Browns 20.
I agree. The Browns look like there's a bit of chaso going on, and the Chiefs are a good enough team to exploit this Cheifs 24 Browns 10
Cardinals +6.5 over RAMS
So now we find out Marc Bulger has been playing with hurt ribs the past 3-4 weeks or so. Great. NOW they frickin tell me. After he's ruined my fantasy season by throwing only 3 TD passes in the past 5 weeks. Awful, simply awful. Anyways, the Rams defense pretty much stinks, and Leinart looks like he's settling in with the passing game. Upset special? Nah, but it'll be close. Rams 30, Cardinals 27.
I think the Cards are really really bad and the Rams are really really medeocre. I'll take the Rams, partly because I believe they'll win by a TD and partly because I believe it's 1999. Rams 34 Cardinals 24
Falcons +1.5 over REDSKINS
After Michael Vick ran for more yards on ONE PLAY than he threw ALL GAME last week, then double flipped off the home crowd, he's on borrowed time in Atlanta. I think everybody knows he's not turning into that superstar people have been waiting for. At least not in Atlanta. It doesn't help that his receivers can't catch a cold. The Skins showed some life in beating the inconsistent Panthers. But I'll go with the Falcons this time. Falcons 24, Skins 19.
The problem with the Vick brothers is their family. Everyone knows that Virginia Tech is chock full of inmates, rednecks, and one or two fairly bright engineering student who effectively pick up the collective GPA of the school. But boy, they sure have a great football team huh? I've concluded that when a Hokie fan tells me that the student "Comes from a great family" that means they only have 3 or 4 relatives who are currently doing time or will be appearing on "Dog the Bounty Hunter" in the next few weeks. However the Falcons should beat the Skins: Atlanta 27 Washington 20
Vikings +9.5 over BEARS
The Vikings are saying Grossman spoke just a little too much smack last game, when he led the team back for a game-winning TD after his turnover almost killed them. I doubt that will be enough inspiration for the Vikes to pull off the upset, but maybe it'll be close. Bears 13, Vikings 6.
Bears at home against the Vikings, who abolutely suck in oiurdoor venues? I'll go the other way: Bears 27 Vikodins 10
PATRIOTS -13.5 over Lions
Patriots dismantled the Packers 2 weeks ago and knocked off the Bears last week. I think they can handle the Lions pretty easily. How does Matt Millen still have a job? (Sorry, but this game is too boring to say much more about... :P ) Patriots 24, Lions 10.
Yawwwnnnnnn.......(pooootttt) Pats 34 Lions 10
PACKERS +1.5 over Jets
Who woulda thunk at the start of the season that the Packers would be getting points at home against the Jets? Not me. Anyways, the Packers actually played relatively well in Seattle, until the Seattle offense got hot in the 2nd half. And when that offense is clicking, it's hard for ANY defense to stop them. I just can't figure out why they didn't try running the ball more at a weak run defense. Anyways, Pennington hasn't looked very good of late, that weak arm is starting to show a bit. No way the Packers lose this game. Packers 26, Jets 17.
First, I'll answer the run question: With Mark Tausher out and Chad Clifton hurt, the Packers are starting 3 rookies on the O line, and sadly they have not mastered the zone blocking scheme. When the Packers tried to run, Seattle was all over it. Now, to address Anonymous: the ONLY way the Packers win is if the weather is cold and windy. Today's weather? Game time temp is 15, winds blowing at 16mph. One might argue that the rule of the more desperate team applies here and the Jets should win, but I'm taking the long shot: Packer 20 Jets 17
Niners +6.5 over SAINTS
The Niners played a pretty good game in St. Louis last week, and some conservative play-calling by their coach (kicking a field goal on 4th and an inch deep in Rams territory) has been ripped apart all week. The Saints are lighting it up through the air, but their defense is shaky. Which means Frank Gore could possibly go for 200 yards. Should be close enough to take the points I think. Saints 31, Niners 27.
I like the Saints at home and so do the script writers. San Fran has looked improved, but I'm convinced they're goin to lose their next two games. Saints 31 Niners 17
BILLS +6.5 over Chargers
One of these days, the Chargers are going to fall behind to a team they're supposed to beat and NOT make the comeback. This isn't that week. Although I did make the right call about the Jaguars coming to frigid Buffalo and stinking, and I think it might snow this week. Merriman will be back for the Chargers though. I'm tempted to go upset special with this one outright, but J.P. Losman scares me. Chargers 26, Bills 20.
That's a gutsy call. I like it, but I'm going the other way. The point about the weather is well taken: today's game time report is snow showers and temps in the 30's, but at this point no one has played in really bad weather. All things considered, I'll stick with the Bolts in a close one: Chargers 27 Bills 17
TITANS +7.5 over Colts
Vince Young has some confidence after that ridiculous comeback against the Giants. And the Titans usually play their divisional games pretty close. I'm getting really sick of Peyton Manning commercials. Colts 30, Titans 24.
Can some one please roll up on Peytee-Pie's leg ala Hassleback and put him out of our collective misery? Oh wait, that means he'd have more free time to film commercials. The Titans - Giants game was astounding, and probably the greatest collapse I've ever witnessed, but I think that was more about the Giants than the Titans. 7.5 is a lot to give to a home team, but I'll take it. Oh and don't share that with St. Ides's dad. I'm still trying to convince him to adopt me. Colts 34 Titans 20
TEXANS +2.5 over Raiders
Here it is.. the Stinker of the Week! God, I can't even bring myself to write anything meaningful on this game. Texans 20, Raiders 17.
Another one of those pick on someone your own size games. The Raiders will consider this a break as they won’t have to face off against one of those nasty AFC West defenses this week. The Houston Texans have been good medicine for many an NFL team, and against the scrapping Raiders who have now covered in 6 of the last 7 games this one is one that either team can break through with a W. Houston has been slinging the ball around a bit and have covered in two of the last three road games, and three of the previous 5 games. Laying points with this bunch of losers is risky either way, I could easily see David Carr and Andre Johnson hooking up for a monster game and rolling the Raiders. However, despite the Raiders propensity to choke, I like the Texans propensity to suck more. 2.5 points is about all I can stand, if this were to be 3 or more I would probably be all over the Texans.
OK, I didn't write any of that. I cut and pasted it from some loser's gambling site so I guess I should plug him: http://www.panageotech.com/thenfledge/. (I googled NFL game analysis and this was like the second or third site. BTW, still looking for SBS.... page 279 of 13,623,593) I agree with St. Ides: the SBS stinker of the week. And I disagree with this loser. Texans 20 Raiders 17
GIANTS +3.5 over Cowboys
Interesting game. On one hand, you have the Cowboys, on the rise since putting Tony Romo (rumored to be banging Jessica Simpson) in as the starter. On the other hand, you have the Giants, who collapses against the Titans, have players not only questioning the coach, but fighting with one another. Oh and their "star" QB is sucking. They're very close away to completely imploding. Which is why I think they win this game. Maybe Romo stays up a little too late the night before with Jessica in NYC, but he's about due for a bad game. A really bad game. (Oh, and the Cowboys cut Vanderjerk. How funny is that?) Giants 24, Cowboys 16.
I always liked "Vandershank" as his nickname, you know? OK, interesting game. Throw out Shockey's "guarantee" and essentially we have one team on the rise and one team in the midst of a full blown implosion. In fact the Giants are pretty damn far "very close". "Very Close" was 12 minutes to go in the 4th quarter last week. Dallas will continue to play well and win by at least 4. (but wouldn't it be great if they lose because of a Martin Gramatica missed FG?) Dallas 24 Giants 20
Jaguars +1.5 over DOLPHINS
It's the epic battle of Florida! Joey Harrington had his victorious return to Detroit on Thanksgiving, and his confidence has to be high right now. Which means he ought to play awful. The Jaguars look good at times. And awful at others. I think it's their turn to look good. Jaguars 20, Dolphins 16.
I'll go the other way. I had a nice chat with my Dolphins insider (Mrs. Samichlaus's dad) who now believes that Joey Harrington is the second coming of, well, not Dan Marino or Bob Greise. Hmm... definitely not Earl Morrell but we're getting close. Somewhere between Earl Morrell and Sage Rosenfels. Dolphins at home continue their late season upswing: Fishes 27 Jags 24
Bucanneers +7.5 over STEELERS
The way the Steelers have played, they shouldn't be giving 7 points to anybody. And Hines Ward is out now too. Ladies and gentlemen, it's the 2007 edition of the "Super Bowl Loser's Curse!" Oh wait. Nevermind... Steelers 24, Bucs 23.
Hines Ward is a huge loss. Next to Najeh Davenport he's the best player on the team. I'll take the Bucs as well. Steelers win but fail to cover: Steelers 17 Bucs 14
BRONCOS -3.5 over Seahawks
I just don't trust that seahawks defense. On the road. In one of the toughest places to play. Even if it is a rookie QB in his first start, that just means Denver is going to run the ball down their throat even more. And Seattle has shown no ability to stop the run. It'll take a turnover or two by Cutler, none by Seattle, and a last second Hasselbeck comeback to pull this one out. I just don't see it happening. Broncos 27, Seahawks 20.
Seattle had a terriffic second half last week. What can I say? If they can put it together for 4 quarters then they'll have no trouble with the Broncos, even in Denver. Look for Seattle to run first today behind Jones & Co. and keep the Broncos off the field. Seattle 20 Denver 17
Panthers -3.5 over EAGLES
Panthers have to be pissed about losing to the Skins last week. Eagles are pretty much done without McNabb, and now even their defense isn't looking so good. Is it just me, or have most of the Monday night games been pretty bad lately? Panthers 24, Eagles 16.
The Monday nighters have stunk, and that my friend is a loving tribute to that broadcast team of Tirico, Theisman and Kornholer. Actually, Tirico is a good play by play guy. I like him. I've always hated Theisman, and Kornholer is just an un-funny sarcastic putz. Well, he did have one good line the other night. Theisman had mentioned that Shaun Alexander was such a good runner because he "kept his legs under him". Kornholer fired right back: "Where else would he keep 'em Joe?"? Theisman was speechless, a huge accomplishment for Kornholer. Anyway, I'll take the Cats to devour some tasty birds: Panthers 20 Eagles 12
Not bad - but one comment on the Jets/Packers game. I say there's no way the JETS lose this game, GB is awful and Mangini's mimic Pats defense should do the job there.
ReplyDeleteI am with you on the upset special. I could see Buffalo doing something, especially in Buffalo....go with your gut!
Pats game will totally be boring - couldn't agree more. i see a 27 - 6 kinda score. Pats/Fins next week should be a doozy.