The Offseason Begins

So now that the season is over, and we've put the Super Bowl behind us (sort of), it's time to take a look at the offseason!
And what good timing, today marks both the deadline for teams to use the Franchise Tag, and the start of the NFL Combine for the upcoming draft.

So what's Seattle's situation look like? Yes, they have some key free agents. But there's no reason to think they won't get things done.

Last year, we were in much worse shape - Matt Hasselbeck, Walter Jones, and Shaun Alexander were all free agents. Well, we locked up Hasselbeck and Jones with reasonable long-term deals, and we slapped Alexander with the franchise tag. Alexander wasn't happy (is anybody ever happy being hit with the tag?), and as part of his agreement to actually sign the offer that came with the tag (and not have some kind of "hold out" scenario happen), the team agreed to include a stipulation that said they would not franchise him this year.

Well, this year is here. And we cannot franchise Alexander. As of March 3rd (a week from tomorrow), he can test the free agent market. Before I get into the whole Alexander thing, let's take a quick look at our other key free agents.

Here are the important guys who are unrestricted free agents: Pro Bowl fullback Mack Strong, Pro Bowl left offensive guard Steve Hutchinson, wide receiver Joe Jurevicius, defense tackle Rocky Bernard, and, of course, Pro Bowl running back and reigning NFL MVP Shaun Alexander.

Mack Strong should be back. He's been in Seattle his whole 13-year career. He just made his first Pro Bowl, but even Pro Bowl fullbacks don't exactly break the bank. Look for something like a 3 or 4 year deal worth a little over a million a year.

Jurevicius had a huge year for us this past year, and arguably could be the biggest free agent signing we made last offseason. He stepped up big time when Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram were both injured. He's been quoted as saying he likes Seattle, he likes the team, and he wants to stay. There have also been rumors that the Patriots have interest in him. But I can't see anybody blowing him away with money. And I think he's been more of a "role player" type his whole career to not suddenly be looking for a big payday. I expect him to sign a 2-3 year deal for reasonable money.

Rocky Bernard is a bit more of a tricky situation. He had an excellent year, showing good ability against the run and the pass. He had 8.5 sacks, which is pretty damn good for a defensive tackle. And he's only 26. So he's a young defensive tackle who can pressure the quarterback and is just hitting his prime. Sadly, that probably means some team out there is going to throw a ton of money at him. And it'll be hard for Seattle to talk themselves into paying a ton for him, especially since he's really just a cog in a 4-man rotation. From one prespective, that makes his numbers even more impressive - he was only on the field maybe a little more than half of Seattle's plays, and he still got 8.5 sacks! On the other hand, maybe the rotation kept him fresh enough to have the energy to get those sacks. Will he be as productive if he plays every single down, or will he wear down a bit? In any case, with Marcus Tubbs and Chuck Darby still giving Seattle a pretty solid starting 2 at DT, I don't see them opening the wallet to keep Bernard.

Steve Hutchinson will be a Seahawk next year. No doubt about it. If they don't get a long-term deal done today, expect him to be hit with the franchise tag. Did I say that nobody is ever happy when they are franchised? Maybe I was wrong. You see, there's a small quirk in the franchise tag system for offensive linemen. They're all lumped together. (Just a quick step back explaining what the franchise tag means.. It means the player gets paid, for one year, the average salary of the top 5 paid players at that position.) Typically, top offensive tackles are played significantly more than top offensive guards. If the positions would be broken up for franchise tag purposes, the average salaries of tackles would be about 2 million more than that of the top 5 guards. 2 million. That's a pretty big number. So, if the Seahawks franchise Hutchinson, they'll basically be overpaying him by 2 million dollars. But time is short, and it seems unlikely a long term deal will be worked out today. So they'd rather do that than let him walk away.

And then there is Shaun Alexander. I'll dedicate a whole article to him soon, but I'll just explain it this way… This is where we REALLY see what is important to Alexander. He said the right things during the season. Now let's see what his actions say. Basically, he is on the road to the Hall of Fame if he stays in Seattle. He (along with Hasselbeck) has become the face of a franchise that suddenly finds itself with a lot more national attention and respect. He runs behind one of the best offensive lines and blocking fullbacks in football. The offense throws plenty enough to set up the run and give him huge holes to run through. If he stays in Seattle, he has a chance at making a few more runs at the Super Bowl, cementing a trip to the Hall of Fame, and maybe even enter the conversation in terms of best running backs of all time. His numbers are incredible (the dude already has over 100 touchdowns). If he goes to some other team, will he be as productive? I doubt it. The teams most rumored to be interested are Arizona, Minnesota, and Carolina. The first two teams have been awful on the ground lately, possibly due to weak offensive lines. Carolina has no cap space to sign him. (And do you think Carolina always has their running backs injured because they're injury prone, or because their offensive line allows them to take a complete beating?)

Here's a direct quote from Alexander recently. From Pro Football Weekly:

When asked if Seattle was the best fit for him personally, Alexander seemed to indicate there was no question about that being the case.

“I don’t know. I hope it is,” he told PFW. “If it ain’t, then wow, I don’t know how much better it can get. We have a great offensive line, and we are good friends besides being great teammates. We’ve got the best fullback (Mack Strong) in the NFL. We have a great quarterback (Matt Hasselbeck) that understands how to put our running game into great position. This is a great fit for me.”

So it seems to me that Alexander does realize the ideal situation he is in. The question is whether or not he can pass up on a few extra million dollars to stay in that situation. We'll see I guess.