Week 6 Picks (in two acts) (second act now available)

Okay, so the annual 5/16th Season Team Rankings will be a week late. Next week it'll be the 6/16th Season Team Rankings, and the extra game should allow me an even better idea of where things stand, especially with some key matchups this week.

First of all, let me apologize for the cheap shot I took at Anonymous last week. The truth is he is an integral part of this blog, and we miss his comments. So what happens? Anon posts a comment and the Steves have nothing to say. Double ouchers. Second, this week Ol' Samichlaus committed a cardinal sin of IT: my computer appeared to be a bit thirsty on Wednesday, so in the middle of a presentation to a client I proceded to share a cup of coffee with my laptop. The computer did a Lincolesque "death rattle", shut itself off, and effectively curtailed my presentation. As a result I am currently residing in the fifth layer of Vista hell, where half of the work I need to do must be done from inside a 32 bit XP virtual machine I set up for said purpose.

Welcome to my nightmare...

After a nice week, Samichlaus pulls 1 game ahead on the season. We could be going back and forth all year, folks. That's what I call mediocre picking at its finest.

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 9-5
St. Ides: 6-8

Overall:
Samichlaus: 30-31
St. Ides: 29-32

Cincinnati (0-5) at NY Jets (2-2) -5.5
I would have been tempted to take the Bengals and the points this week over a Jets team I'm not quite sold on. Then I heard Carson Palmer is out, and that Fitzgerald guy will be the Bungles QB again. So yeah, I'll lay the points. Jets 24, Bungles 16.

After Brett the Jet had a career game two weeks ago, the well rested Jets should have no problems with Cincinnati. Besides, what can you say about a team that comes from a city that puts cinnamon and chocolate in their chili? I'll be tuning in to this one for my early game on Sunday... which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Jets 31 Bengals 20

St. Louis (0-4) at Washington (4-1) -13.5
This one has trap game written all over it. The Rams can't be THAT bad, can they? They're coming off a bye and it'll be their first game since they fired Linehan. The Redskins have knocked off the Cowboys and Eagles both on the road. I'm taking the points. Skins 23, Rams 13.

I like the analysis, but I'm going to disagree: I think the Rams ARE that bad, and the coaching change isn't going to help. In fact, I'll bet the initial impact is going to be detrimental. Jim Zorn continues to impress, and the Skins are starting to believe in their coach. It's going to be a happy Sunday in DC which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Skins 27 Rams 10

Oakland (1-3) at New Orleans (2-3) -7.5
Would you believe the Saints are in last place in the NFC South at 2-3? Yep, it's true. And Drew Brees is still on pace to set the single-season passing yardage record. He gets back Marques Colston this week, which should help. Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a weird place. They fired Lane Kiffin before last week's bye (just like the Rams) but QB JaMarcus Russell told reporters he still talks to Kiffin on the phone and Kiffin has been coaching him this week. What the....?! Anyways, the Saints need a win badly, and I think they cover. Saints 30, Raiders 16.

Dead on analysis above. The Russell - Kiffin thing borders on the bizarre, which is completely in order for the Raiders. New Orleans comes off a tough Monday night loss to the Vikings despite the almost unfathomable performance by Reggie Bush, so yes, they are going to be primed for dominance this week. The Saints win and cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary..
Saints 34 Raiders 13

Miami (2-2) at Houston (0-4) -3.5
In my "money pool" where I pick 5 games each week, I lost 3 games by half a point last week. Including the Texans losing by 4 (they were getting 3.5) to the Colts when Sage Rosenfals self-destructed and turned the ball over 3 times in like 45 seconds. Ugh. Anyways, I think the Dolphins are probably about due for a stinker, and the Texans really aren't as bad as their record. Texans 27, Dolphins 20.

Why are the Dolphins due for a stinker? In the last two weeks they've knocked off New England and San Diego, two of the best teams in the AFC. Meanwhile the Texans keep finding ways to lose, and I can't blame that pear shaped big ass Mike Sherman anymore. Sherman coaches at Texas A&M who plays on Saturdays. This Sunday you can find Sherman at the local "Golden Corrall, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Dolphins 24 Texans 17

Baltimore (2-2) at Indianapolis (2-2) -4.5
The Colts needed the aforementioned Sage Rosenfals meltdown to pull out last week's game. I think Vegas is setting these spreads based upon the past reputation of the Colts, not this season's reality. Colts lose outright. Ravens 23, Colts 20.

I like Baltimore and the points as well. What on earth is going on in Indy? The days of that offense doing whatever it wants seems to be a thing of the past. Peytie-pie has been nothing short of mediocre, which is a good thing. He was getting a little big headed don't you think? Manning is looking for a big game on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary, but it ain't going to be enough to cover.
Colts 27 Baltimore 24

Chicago (3-2) at Atlanta (3-2) +2.5
I have no clue what to think about either of these teams. Kyle Orton has looked decent at QB for the Bears, which is shocking. Yet Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have made the Falcons offense look pretty good themselves. I don't know much more than that, so I'll take the home points. Falcons 23, Bears 20.

Honestly I'm not surprised by Kyle Orton, who as I've said before simply wins football games. The Falcons on the other hand have been a surprise. In fact they shocked the shit out of me last week by beating the Packers at home, but a lot of that had to do with the matador defense the Pack seemed to be playing. There's no way the Bears are going to let a rookie QB beat them Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Bears 20 Falcons 13

Detroit (0-4) at Minnesota (2-3) -13.5
The Lions are really really bad. But I'll take two TDs against a divisional rival with a shaky QB any time. Almost any time. Vikings 23, Lions 10.

I won't waste too much time on this either except to say that yes, two TDs against a division rival is too much even on a Sunday which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Vikings 30 Detroit 20

Carolina (4-1) at Tampa Bay (3-2) -1.5
Key NFC South matchup. Somehow, Jeff Garcia is still behind Brian Griese on the Tampa Bay depth chart. (Though Griese should make sure he doesn't let Garica behind him in the shower.) Carolina looks like they have their usual solid defense back in place, and Jake Delhomme gives them just enough consistency on offense. I like the Cats. Panthers 23, Bucs 20.

Thank you St. Ides for the weekly Jeff-Garcia-is-Gay cheap shot. I heard he fathered a child with that guy from "Idol"... or was it with Brady Anderson? I forget. Anyway, I like the Cats as well. Tampa is tough at home, but these are similar teams who play similar defense. In other words there's no surprises in store thus Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Cats 27 Bucs 23

Jacksonville (2-3) at Denver (4-1) -3.5
Cutler has looked pretty good so far. David Garrard, who I was never sold on despite his sparkling TD-to-Int ratio last year, has not. The Jags running game has also sucked, which is unusual. I'll take the Broncos and the high altitude. Broncos 27, Jaguars 17.

Just take any analysis I've done for Denver at home over the course of the last 4 seasons and insert it here. I always like Denver at home and this week is no exception. 3.5 should be easy enough for the Broncos to cover on Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Broncos 23 Jags 17

Green Bay (2-3) at Seattle (1-3) -2.5
Two desperate teams. Seattle was absolutely embarrassed last week by the Giants, and I sat through the whole game in person. It was brutal. The secondary looked lost. Their #2 CB, be it Kelly Jennings or Josh Wilson, has been abused all season. (It doesn't help that they're both about as tall as Doug Flutie.) The last time these two teams met, Ryan Grant ran over Seattle and eliminated them from the playoffs. At the time, I thought it was a legitimate excuse that the small "built for speed" Seahawks defense was at a huge disadvantage on the snow-slick field. Now? I'm not so sure they just don't completely suck all around. If Seattle has anything going for them it's that the Green Bay defense is horribly battered, Holmgren has been laying into the team all week in practice, and they still do have the loudest home crowd in the league. I'm quickly losing faith in this team. A loss here, and I'll be starting to look at potential first round draft picks next spring and hope that when Jim Mora Jr. takes over the reigns as head coach, he'll hire a defensive coordinator who isn't afraid to blitz. Packers 49, Seahawks 20.

WTF? You laid out a perfect case for a Seattle win and then predict a Packer victory? I've got to say, I didn't expect the Seahawks to roll over like little bitches against the mighty Giants. You poor, poor bastard. What a game to see. I mean Jesus H. Christ in a chicken basket. Anyway, here's why I think Seattle wins this week. First, Aaron Rodgers is still hurt and almost came out of the Falcons game. Although he played well at times, he was awful at other times ("I didn't have enough arm on a few passes" he said) Second, he's never played in a stadium as loud as Seattles. Third, Mike Holmgren is a better coach than Mike McArthy, who appears to be coaching as usual this week. Fourth, the Packers running game has been terrible, and to win against Seattle you've got to run the ball. Finally, the Packers defense has been abysmal, and the fans are clamoring for defensive coordinator Bob Sanders's head. Again. One more disastrous performance on Sunday (which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary) by this D and I'll be clamoring for it as well.
Seattle 30 Green Bay 27

Philadelphia (2-3) at San Francisco (2-3) +4.5
Brian Westbrook won't be playing, and that's huge. The Niners are a weird team. But I really don't trust the Eagles on the west coast without Westbrook giving points. Eagles 23, Niners 20.

I don't buy it. I think the Eagles will be just fine against the Niners with or without Westbrook. They're a better team than their 2-3 record indicates. The Niners on the other hand are worse than their record indicates. I like Philly by a TD this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Eagles 23 Niners 15

Dallas (4-1) at Arizona (3-2) +5.5
Did someone around here say the Cowboys were overrated? Oh yeah, that was me. They lose to the Skins at home and then struggle a bit against the Bungles? I'll take the Cardinals and the points. Even though I'd like the Cardinals to lose so Seattle stays close in the NFC West, I think they might just win this game totally. Cardinals 30, Cowboys 29.

St. Ides was right and Ol' Samichlaus was wrong: The Cowboys have come back to earth just as he predicted. But the Cardinals beating them outright? First of all the 'Boys are the better team. Second, it's going to be like a home game for them in AZ this Sunday, which happens to be me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary. I like Dallas by a TD at least.
Dallas 34 Arizona 27.

New England (3-1) at San Diego (2-3) -5.5
The Patriots are not as dead as Anonymous might have us believe. Plus, Norv Turner is still a pretty horrible coach. I think the Patriots D ought to be able to give Phillip Rivers a bit of trouble and they usually do a pretty good job containing Tomlinson. Speaking of running backs.. Has anybody seen Maroney lately? I made the mistake of drafting him in my fantasy league, and he's been frickin invisible. (Luckily I also got Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte in late rounds, so me team is doing well.) Patriots 23, Chargers 20.

Last year I called Maroney the best young back in the league. So I read St. Ides's comments and did a little research and found this:

"Laurence Maroney says there's a very good reason he's not running the ball particularly well for the New England Patriots.And that's just about all he'll say on a subject that has been irritating Patriots fans all season long.

"Hey, I have my issues," Maroney said Friday before New England finished up its final practice at San Jose State, the Pats' home between last weekend's win over the 49ers and Sunday night's trip to face the San Diego Chargers. "There are reasons," said Maroney, who has just 93 yards rushing in three appearances for New England (3-1). "I'd rather not speak about them, but there are reasons."

Jeez. OK, read the article here.

Meanwhile, this Sunday night (when I'm hoping to be poking the luscious Mrs. Samichlaus on our 6th anniversary) take the Pats and the points.
Bolts 31 Patriots 30

NY Giants (4-0) at Cleveland (1-3) +7.5
Good luck, Browns! The Giants looked frickin unbeatable last week. Their offensive line is awesome, and they were blowing open HUGE holes to run through. I don't want to spend too much time thinking about that game any more, or I'll get depressed. But yeah, the Browns don't have a prayer. Giants 27, Browns 10.

Let's forget all about last week and think happy thoughts like puppy dogs farting rainbows. As much as I admire the Giants, a TD on the road is an awful lot. I'll go the other way here, because Cleveland is so tough at home. This is a good Monday night game, which happens to be a day after me and Mrs. Samichlaus's 6th anniversary.
Giants 24 Cleveland 20