The whole TO drama is worth its own blog, but we're lazy. So yeah, I'll just say this - I'm still not sure whether to believe him or not that he didn't really try to kill himself. Maybe we'll get to hear the 911 tape. Maybe some doctor will come out and say "Uhhh yeah, it's BS, you don't get all loopy from mixing supplements and pain killers." Maybe it was his PR woman at that press conference that was so unconvincing, or her wild hair. But yeah, it seems this dude has had one of the weirdest careers I can remember.
My apologies to all of our reader who en mass requested these picks for Thursday. Although it is still technically Thursday, it's pretty late and I'm pretty tired. I'm also pretty but that's another story. So here's the deal kids, Samichalus is a big time executive for a small town software firm. That means 'Ol Samichlaus doesn't have a lot of free time during the day. Man, I miss the days when St. Ides and I worked together. There was nothing to do but have fun, get drunk, and write goofy shit. No seriously, did you ever see some of the code he did back then?
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 6-8
St. Ides: 4-10
Overall:
Samichlaus: 17-13
St. Ides: 10-20
FALCONS -7.5 over Cardinals
Someone please shoot me for picking against the Saints last week. Samichlaus nailed it - no way they were losing their return to New Orleans game. The conspiracy theories are already popping up, with the ridiculous opening minutes blocked punt returned for a touchdown at the top of the evidence list. So yeah, I'm going to go ahead and say the Falcons threw that game, to give the world a "feel good" story. They come back this week with a vengeance. Falcons 26, Cardinals 13.
Of course the story line wasn't exactly as I'd predicted, but the outcome was as predictable as that first blocked punt. So tell me, has there been a Matt Leinart sighting yet? This week the script writers owe the Falcons one, so I'm taking them as well: Vicks Clap Infested and Formerly Indicted Penis 31 Cardinals 17
TITANS +9.5 over Cowboys
That's too many points to pass up on at home. Last week they were getting 10 at Miami, and kept it pretty close all game. This week they face a Cowboys team that will be distracted by the TO drama. When will we see Vince Young? Could be this week. Cowboys 23, Titans 16.
Who starts first? Leinart or Young? I like the Titans in this game too, but watch 'em pull the upset win straight up. It's the Samichlaus Shocker of the week: Titans 27 Cowgirls 24
Vikings +1.5 over BILLS
Vikings hung in there against the Bears last week. The Bills have played surprisingly well. But they lost to the Jets last week in their home opener. And uhhhh, yeah, I think the Vikings are probably quite a bit better than the Jets. Vikings 20, Bills 10.
I don't know what the hell happened to the Bills last week. I'm telling you, that one shocked me. Then again, so did the Packer game. Bills win and cover: Bills 23 Viqueens 17
Saints +7.5 over PANTHERS
Probably the toughest game to pick because of the aforementioned fixed game in New Orleans handing the game to the Saints. So are they really 3-0 good? The Panthers needed a last second long field goal to barely beat the struggling Bucs and Chris Simms playing with a ruptured spleen. So doesn't this spread seem surprisingly high? Unless Vegas knows the same thing we do: the Saints were handed those wins on a silver platter. They're really not that good, espcially on defense. Still, somehow I can't bring myself to lay a touchdown. Panthers 20, Saints 13.
I was all set to pick the Cats until I read St. Ides's analysis. Damn. Shit. Let me stick with my gut. I think the script writers have told the Saints "You're on your own", and without the extra help this is a pretty sad team. Cats win and cover: Cats 24 Saints 14.
Niners +6.5 over CHIEFS
Okay, so I was wrong about the Niners upsetting the Eagles last week. Very wrong. (Though the game was closer than the score, that fumble return on the goal line for a touchdown was a 14-point swing.) Yes, KC is probably one of the top 3 toughest places to play. But who's their QB now? Damon Huard? And how's that O-line looked? Not good. Oh and I continue to stick by my claim that Herm Edwards is not a good coach. I think during their bye week people must have forgotten how bad the Chiefs looked and how knocked silly Trent Green was. Oh, and their defense still stinks. Chiefs 27, Niners 24.
The Niners are on the comeback trail, but these paths are hardly linear. I see a misstep this week for the Niners, a young team in a very loud stadium that won't be able to get their precision offense going. Cheifs 31 Niners 10
Colts -8.5 over JETS
If the Colts can cover a by a TD over the tough Jaguards, I think they can manage to squeeze a few more points out against the Jets. Colts 34, Jets 17.
OK, I'm going to bet against the Colts. I think the Jets are the real deal, I've seen enough to believe they'll keep it close. Jets with the points: Colts 34 Jets 31
TEXANS +3.5 over Dolphins
Yes, the Texans are pretty bad. But so are the Dolphins, who barely beat the Titans last week at home. For a change, David Carr has actually looked pretty good. (I think he's like the 2nd highest rated QB in the league. Too lazy to look it up right now. Okay, what the hell, I know it's hard to believe, I'll look it up... Okay, correction: He's the TOP rated QB in the league: 113.6 rating. 6 TDs, just one pick. ) Anyways, the problem with the Texans this year is their defense (as usual) and their running game (but no, they didn't need Reggie Bush). Culpepper continues to throw balls into the ground and float them into the stands. So yeah, don't be shocked if the Texans win this outright. Texans 20, Dolphins 16.
The "St. Ides Shocker of the week"???!!! No figgin WAY! Pretty Boy's the highest rated QB in the league???? Motherfucker! Too bad I still can't pick 'em, but judging by that close spread St. Ides might be on to something... Still, I think the Fins are ready to break out... Dolphins 31 Texans 20
Chargers -2.5 over RAVENS
Two of the top defenses in the league. But here's the difference: despite the addition of Steve McNair, the Ravens offense still isn't very good. It'll be tough to shut down Tomlinson, but if they do, this could be the first real test for Phillip Rivers (who, by the way, is the 2nd highest rated QB in the league, behind Carr). Chargers 19, Ravens 13.
Philip Rivers is arguably the best young quarterback in the league. Psych! I'm going to take the Ravens at home. Baltimore is tough in that stadium, and as much as I like the Chargers I see the Ravens D coming up big and stopping them cold. Ravens 17 Chargers 14
RAMS -5.5 over Lions
After a frisky opening game against Seattle, the Lions haven't shown much. And this is Mike Martz's homecoming. Sadly, Jon Kitna and Roy Williams are no Warner/Bulger and Holt/Bruce combo. Watch for the Rams to run Steven Jackson down the Lions' throat in a not-so-subtle message to Martz that he should have run the damn ball more. Well, probably not, but it'd be funny to see. Rams 23, Lions 16.
I dunno, Kitna and Williams looked pretty fucking good to me against the Packers "Matador Defense" O'le. Seriously, I like the "run Jackson" line, that's a good plan, but you have to know that Mike Martz (Super Genius) will pull out all the stops in this one. The Lions get their first win: Lions 31 Rams 21
Patriots +5.5 over BENGALS
After a huge win in Pittsburgh last week, this is a classic letdown game for the Bengals, especially since the Patriots don't look very tough right now. And this is exactly the sort of game where everybody is doubting the Patriots this season, and they somehow win and suddenly everyone is like "Uh oh, they're back." If the Patriots don't at least keep this one close, you can pretty much stick a fork in them. Then again, they have a bunch of games left against the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins, so winning the division will still be a reasonable goal. Patriots 16, Bengals 13.
I think Anonymous captured the spirit of the Pats best during your little lively exchange earlier this week. I don't see the Bengals or Carson Palmer (who many consider to be the best young quarterback in the league) to let up. The Patriots are still a good team and so everybody puts their A game forward when they come to town. The Bengals go for the kill shot: Bengals 28 Pats 17
Browns -2.5 over RAIDERS
The Raiders are so bad they're actually getting points at home against the 0-3 Browns. Browns showed some signs of life last week against the Ravens, and lost on a last second kick. Aaron Brooks is out. Some dude named Walter is in. (And I'm not sure if that's his first name or last name.) Bet against Art Shell until he wins. Browns 20, Raiders 10.
Bet against Art Shell... is that a "shell game"??? yuk yuk yuk... OK, who really cares about this one? Lately Raider Nation has been looking more and more like Afghanistan. What's the over/under on Art Shell out, Jim Bates in: Week 8? Browns 20 Raiders 10
Jaguars -2.5 over REDSKINS
The Skins offense finally came to life last week. But it was against the Texans. The Jags hung with the Colts, but their passing game couldn't really get it done, and Josh Scobey missed 2 field goals (including one under 30 yards). This should be a pretty close game, but I'm gonna go with the Jags D shutting down Brunell and Portis. Jaguars 17, Redskins 9.
Texans: worst D in the league. Jaguars: second best D in the league. Any questions? Jags 20 Skins 10 (though if there's going to be a direct hit this week, I'd take St. Ides's score)
BEARS -3.5 over Seahawks
Shaun Alexader will not play, despite him proclaiming his foot much better, and that it healed miraculously through prayer. The MRI still shows a crack in his foot. He won't play for awhile. That said, Maurice Morris is not a huge dropoff, and gives a different look to the offense. One could argue he's actually better suited for the West Coast Offense, as he's an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and he's quick with a good speed burst. Whereas Alexander is a more patient runner who finds the cutback lanes, Morris can hit those holes quick and be gone. Still, the Bears defense is as good as it gets. Seattle will likely show the 4-WR set over 20 times this game (I think they did it about 15 last week, and that was with Alexander healthy), so we'll see just how good the Bears defense is with their nickel and dime defensive backs in. I don't see Grossman and the suddenly alive Bears offense doing much against this underrated Seattle D. The D that shut down an impressive Giants offense for 3 and a half quarters last week. Low scoring game. And the reverse jinx is 2-0 so far this year. Bears 16, Seahawks 10.
This is a tough pick, and I'm not sure how it plays out. On paper, the Bears are not in the same class as the Seahawks. But their tough at home and there D is superb. Conversely, the Seahawks came alive last week, big time. Factor in that Mike Holmgren has a terriffic record against Chicago and knows how to coach there, and this becomes a Seahawk win, Seattle 31 Bears 21
EAGLES -10.5 over Packers
The last time the Eagles were on Monday Night Football, they were getting absolutely shellacked and embarassed by Seattle. Of course, McNabb wasn't playing that game. Interesting side note: there's a decent chance that the Phillies will wind up tied for the NL Wild Card with the Padres or Dodgers, in which case a one-game "play in" game will be held on Monday afternoon. So that'd be a pretty huge sports day for Philly fans. And the Eagles are the less likely of the two to let them down. Eagles 27, Packers 16.
It ain't even going to be close. The Packers D is a mess. I actually started to write a blog about it on Monday and I still haven't finished it. It's too painful. They can't stop the run, and they consistantly give up about 7 big plays a game... to LOUSY TEAMS!!!!! Favre has a tough time in Philly... the last time the Packers won in Philly, Vince Lombardi was the head coach (1962). Last year the Eagles without Westbrook and Mc Nabb won by about 35. Want more? Ahman Green is nursing a sore hammy. William Henderson is about to lose his starting job to a no name off the practice squad. Our best defensive back has been Ahmad Carrol. Our Safetys have no figgin clue who they're supposed to cover... Brady Popinga is a starting linebacker... Jesus H. Christ in a Chicken Basket. Eagles 41 Packers 13.
Friday, September 29, 2006
Friday, September 22, 2006
Week 3 Picks
Of course we'll keep track of how we do throughout the season, but it's still early for St. Ides to recover from a horrendous start:
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 11-5
St. Ides: 6-10 (ouch)
Loyal SBS readers know the drill: St. Ides always starts out slow then follows up with a strong season keeping out picks reasonably close throughout the season. I’ll bet Michigan’s stunning defeat of Notre Dame in South Bend might have motivated his brain cells this week. Either way, there are a lot of great games this week so let’s get started….
Redskins -3.5 over TEXANS
Portis should be back this week, though still not 100%. The Texans, who were thought to have a decent running game with rookie Wali Lundy, haven't decided what they're doing with the new Lundy/Gado/Dayne platoon. You think they regret passing on Reggie Bush yet? Me too. If Mario Williams can't get a sack on the rapidly aging Mark Brunell, it's time to start throwing around the "bust" word I think. Anyways, this game might be closer than we think, but I'll take the skins to avoid going 0-3 after having huge expectations. Skins 20, Texans 16.
And speaking of great games, this isn’t one of them. The Texans must be having a little buyers remorse for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Samkon Gado played well during garbage time last week, breaking off a 26 yard gain running with the familiar Mike Sherman blocking scheme. However, I will agree with St. Ides. The Redskins are a better team and should break out. Lose, and their done. Skins 27, Texans 17
Bears -3.5 over VIKINGS
Both teams are 2-0, and it's a fairly important divisional game early on. Vikings have been impressive so far, beating the Skins and Panthers, two teams the "experts" thought would be very good. Rex Grossman frickin exploded last week for the Bears. I'm going to say the Vikes get knocked down to earth a bit here against this Bears defense, and they're not quite ready to make a move to take the division just yet. Bears 20, Vikings 13.
I like the Bears too. Like I said last week, their offense is better than people think. The only way they don’t dominate this game is if their D doesn’t show up, and that’s not likely against a division rival. The Vikes? Good team, but not in the same league as the Bears. Bears 24, Vikings 10.
LIONS -6.5 over Packers
Two 0-2 teams. I hate to say it, but last week's loss may have been enough for the Packers to really start wondering if they can beat anybody. When the defense plays well, the offense does nothing. When the offense plays well, the defense vanishes. At home, against that Packers D (how is A.J. Hawk looking by the way), that might be just what Jon Kitna and Mike Martz need to get the Lions offense going. Lions 27, Packers 20.
After week one, Brett Favre had this to say: “Maybe we ain’t that good”. I agree with St. Ides analysis 100%, and I think the Lions will win this game outright, but the Packers showed enough last week to tell me they’ll keep it close. The X factor is the coaching staff. Last week I saw players out of position on defense resulting in several huge plays, I saw Brett having to direct his players where to stand (shaking his head in disgust at one point), and I saw coverage mismatches that were inexcusable. All of this is on the coaching staff. That’s got to improve now. Take the Packers and the points: Lions 27 Packers 24
Panthers -2.5 over BUCS
Looks like we were right on last week about Chris Simms. Get the fork ready, he's just about done. Meanwhile, looks like Steve Smith is back for the Panthers, and just in time for them to try and get their "Super Bowl season" (as so many "experts" predicted) back on track. I'll take John Fox over Jon Gruden any day of the week. Panthers 23, Bucs 10.
Sophomore: (Greek). From the words “Sophos” meaning “wise” and “Moros” meaning “fool”. syn: Chris Simms. I like the Panthers too. I think Simms will have a few good games this year (just like last year), but this ain’t gonna be one. The Carolina D is probably the last thing Simms needs, well except for maybe the Bears D. I’ll take Carolina too: Panthers 24 Bucs 17
Jets +5.5 over BILLS
Bills have looked decent, especially on D. They were a botched safety from knocking the Pats off in Foxboro, then beat the popular "team on the rise" Dolphins in Miami. Now they get their home opener against the Jets, who have also been decent, whipping the Titans and playing the Patriots tough. So, using the common measuring stick of the Patriots, it looks like these teams are both better than expected. (Or are the Patriots worse than expected?) Anyways, I like the Bills at home, but I'll take those points. Bills 24, Jets 20.
Buffalo has looked good, haven’t they? Then again, maybe St. Ides was right all along: the Jets problem was Herm Edwards. However, I think the Bills at home is going to be too much for the Jets to handle. The division is in their grasp and I see a big performance from the only team that plays football in New York. Bills 31 Jets 17
Jacksonville +6.5 over COLTS
The Jags sure kicked the crap out of the Steelers, didn't they? When was the last time Big Ben had a good game? When they beat the Colts in the AFC semi-finals? Anyways, both teams are cruising at 2-0, with the Jags' schedule getting MUCH easier in the coming weeks. They have a great run defense, but since when do the Colts depend on the run? Let's see how good their pass defense is. It'll depend on how well they pressure Peyton, and seems teams now have a recipe for getting to him. Colts win, but don't cover. Colts 23, Jags 17.
Nah, the Colts at home will win by at least 7 and maybe more. The reason why the Jags looked so good against the Steelers is because (a) they stopped the run and (b) Big Dumb Ben had his appendix removed 2 weeks ago so he really didn’t throw very well. Last time I checked, Paytee-Pie’s appendix was fine. Oh, and so was his receivers. Colts 34 – Jags 21
Titans +10.5 over DOLPHINS
Is it Vince Young time yet? Just in case you were wondering what the passer rating for Kerry "Whiskey" Collins was last week (and I know you are), here it is: 1.3. Yes, 1.3. You could put me in there and I could throw 10 balls into the ground, and have a higher rating. In fact, I think his BAC was higher. Anyways, yeah, the Titans stink, but the Dolphins have some QB issues themselves, with Culpepper looking about as mobile as David Ortiz back there, and missing wide open receivers. A score in garbage time, and the Titans cover. Dolphins 26, Titans 17.
“As mobile as David Ortiz”. Nice. I read these one at a time, and write my response for each so that one made me laugh out loud. OK, I’ll admit that this is a guess because after 2 weeks I’m not sure that the fins are 10.5 points better than anyone. However, I do know that the Titans are really awful. If Vince plays my guess is this game will be closer. If Collins plays, I’m liking the Dolphins. Oh, and I’m too lazy to research this… Dolphins 27 Titans 10
Bengals +2.5 over STEELERS
Steelers looked horrible last week. Big Ben sucked. Reports emerged he was playing with a 104 fever. But then it was corrected, it was only 100.4 temperature. Anyways, everybody was talking about the "Superbowl Hangover/Jinx" for the Seahawks since no team since 1999 has lost the Super Bowl and made the playoffs the following year. Further proof who really should have lost the Super Bowl will be the Steelers rapid downfall. Now that I got scorched by comparing Roethlisberger to Trent Dilfer (manages game well, but not a great passer, or QB really), the karma has swung the other way, and I go back to that claim: Not. That. Good. Now that Joey Porter's pit bulls have eaten a neighbor's horse for lunch, the Football Gods will surely frown upon the Stealers. Oh and did I mention Polamalu has a bum shoulder and is basically playing with one arm? Mark it down right now: Steelers are not making the playoffs. Bengals 30, Steelers 16.
The real reason the Steelers lost last week was because they refused to play Najeh Davenport. My thought is as long as he’s on the bench, the Steelers won’t have a prayer. We all know how I feel about Carson Palmer, but I’m going to pick against him anyway. I like the Steelers at home, with a dose of Najeh and a healthier Ben making Cincinnati look like “Ben’s Gals”. Steelers 27 Bengals 24
Ravens -6.5 over BROWNS
Boring game, but I'll just say this: Steve McNair isn't a Hall of Famer, but he's like 20 times better than any QB the Ravens have had since they won the Super Bowl several years ago (I'm too lazy to look up the year, 2001 maybe?). That's enough for them to win 3-4 more games than last year. Ravens 20, Browns 10.
Yeah, the Raven’s D is making a comeback and I’m happy for Steve McNair, one of the true good guys in the NFL. The Browns? OK team… that’s a lot of points to cover but I’ll take the Ravens. Ravens 23 Browns 15
CARDS -4.5 over Rams
Cardinals beat the Niners at home. Rams lost to the Niners in San Fran. Seattle did a great job shutting down Boldin and Fitzgerald last week (Combined 10 catches for 114 yards - most weeks they EACH do about that). But trust me when I say the Seattle defense can be scary good this year. And the Rams defense isn't close. This should be a tight game, but I think the Cardinals keep their winning streak in their new stadium alive with a close win. Cardinals 31, Rams 26.
I’m going with the Cardinals as well. The home field advantage will be the difference maker, and although I don’t have a lot of respect for Denny Green I see a win on the horizon for the Cardinals. Cards 27 Rams 20
Giants +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
The reverse jinx has worked great these past two years so far. Did you hear the latest on this one? The NFL has sent a memo to Seattle saying they're sending an official to the game to keep an eye on it. Not because of shoddy officiating, but because someone complained that Seattle is pumping artificial noise into the stadium. Uh oh, bad news for the Giants, who had something like 11 false start penalties last year. Holmgren and the defense are already jumping all over this story, using it to motivate the crowd to be even louder. Something like, "That's crazy? Artificial noise? We don't need to do that here, the fans are loud enough. And a story like this just might get them angry enough to be even louder." So yeah, look for noise to be a factor. Oh, and everybody points out that Feely missed 3 game-winning FGs in that game. What they forget is both Giants TDs were controversial: Shockey got his clock absolutely cleaned in the end zone and dropped the ball, but the refs gave it to him. And Toomer had a toenail out of bounds in the back of the end zone, yet got the benefit of the doubt. I really hope this game will be a blowout (and it should be really), but I'm not sure Seattle's offense is clicking just yet. Seahawks 20, Giants 17.
The Giant D is a tough D to get your offense going against. But Seattle at home against any east coast team is worth at least 3 points just for the time zone. So the question is are the Seahawks a half a point better than the Giants? Absolutely. Now don’t get me wrong: the Giants are the second best team in the NFC, but they’re simply not in the same class as the Seahawks. Seahawks 31 Giants 24
NINERS +5.5 over Eagles
Simple reason for this pick really: home team getting points. Niners are finally looking decent, as they beat the Rams and gave the Cardinals a scare. Eagles have a long long flight to think about that blown game againt the Giants last week. Plus Westbrook has a sore knee. Upset special of the week here, they win outright! Niners 23, Eagles 21.
Wow. Gutsy call by St. Ides. I’m going the other way, but I’m thinking the same way my partner in crime is. I’m wagering that the aforementioned long plane ride will be more than enough to fire up the Eagles. That’s a pretty good football team, and the Niners are not. Eagles 34 Niners 17
PATRIOTS -6.5 over Broncos
Jake the Snake is living on borrowed time, and this week won't help him much. Although the Broncos are pretty desperate, and play the Patriots tough, look for Brady to step up and win this one handily. Patriots 27, Broncos 10.
“They suck on the road”. This is an easy game to pick. The Pats are going to get better as the year goes on, and I see a big step happening against the Broncos this week. The Pats D will be too much for the Broncos to handle, who may score 10 but no more. Patriots 24 Broncos 10
Falcons -3.5 over SAINTS
As nice a story as it may be for the Saints to be 2-0, have a new QB and RB they can look towards for the future, and are returning to New Orleans after Katrina for this Monday Night game... Vick and the Falcons are running wild, and their defense looks pretty good. The Falcons have rushed for 558 yards in 2 games. 2 games. Think about that for a second. I think only something like 4-5 RBs have ever put up 2000 yard rushing seasons, and that's with 1 guy carrying the entire workload. The Falcons are on pace to rush for 4464 yards. That's two 2000 rushers (Dunn and Vick?). That's like insane. Anyways, maybe Atlanta finally figured out they don't need Vick to throw the ball to win. It will be interesting to watch. Falcons 27, Saints 20.
Can the Saints lose the Superdome’s grand reopening? Here’s a hot news flash: throw out all the analysis for this game. The same people who scripted that Super Bowl win for the Steelers couldn’t write a better feel good story than this one. Of course the Saints will win, down by 5 in the last seconds of the game with a miracle punt return by Reggie Bush. If the Falcons do win this game, it just might restore my faith. Maybe. Saints 26 Vick’s clap infested and formerly indicted penis 24
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 11-5
St. Ides: 6-10 (ouch)
Loyal SBS readers know the drill: St. Ides always starts out slow then follows up with a strong season keeping out picks reasonably close throughout the season. I’ll bet Michigan’s stunning defeat of Notre Dame in South Bend might have motivated his brain cells this week. Either way, there are a lot of great games this week so let’s get started….
Redskins -3.5 over TEXANS
Portis should be back this week, though still not 100%. The Texans, who were thought to have a decent running game with rookie Wali Lundy, haven't decided what they're doing with the new Lundy/Gado/Dayne platoon. You think they regret passing on Reggie Bush yet? Me too. If Mario Williams can't get a sack on the rapidly aging Mark Brunell, it's time to start throwing around the "bust" word I think. Anyways, this game might be closer than we think, but I'll take the skins to avoid going 0-3 after having huge expectations. Skins 20, Texans 16.
And speaking of great games, this isn’t one of them. The Texans must be having a little buyers remorse for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Samkon Gado played well during garbage time last week, breaking off a 26 yard gain running with the familiar Mike Sherman blocking scheme. However, I will agree with St. Ides. The Redskins are a better team and should break out. Lose, and their done. Skins 27, Texans 17
Bears -3.5 over VIKINGS
Both teams are 2-0, and it's a fairly important divisional game early on. Vikings have been impressive so far, beating the Skins and Panthers, two teams the "experts" thought would be very good. Rex Grossman frickin exploded last week for the Bears. I'm going to say the Vikes get knocked down to earth a bit here against this Bears defense, and they're not quite ready to make a move to take the division just yet. Bears 20, Vikings 13.
I like the Bears too. Like I said last week, their offense is better than people think. The only way they don’t dominate this game is if their D doesn’t show up, and that’s not likely against a division rival. The Vikes? Good team, but not in the same league as the Bears. Bears 24, Vikings 10.
LIONS -6.5 over Packers
Two 0-2 teams. I hate to say it, but last week's loss may have been enough for the Packers to really start wondering if they can beat anybody. When the defense plays well, the offense does nothing. When the offense plays well, the defense vanishes. At home, against that Packers D (how is A.J. Hawk looking by the way), that might be just what Jon Kitna and Mike Martz need to get the Lions offense going. Lions 27, Packers 20.
After week one, Brett Favre had this to say: “Maybe we ain’t that good”. I agree with St. Ides analysis 100%, and I think the Lions will win this game outright, but the Packers showed enough last week to tell me they’ll keep it close. The X factor is the coaching staff. Last week I saw players out of position on defense resulting in several huge plays, I saw Brett having to direct his players where to stand (shaking his head in disgust at one point), and I saw coverage mismatches that were inexcusable. All of this is on the coaching staff. That’s got to improve now. Take the Packers and the points: Lions 27 Packers 24
Panthers -2.5 over BUCS
Looks like we were right on last week about Chris Simms. Get the fork ready, he's just about done. Meanwhile, looks like Steve Smith is back for the Panthers, and just in time for them to try and get their "Super Bowl season" (as so many "experts" predicted) back on track. I'll take John Fox over Jon Gruden any day of the week. Panthers 23, Bucs 10.
Sophomore: (Greek). From the words “Sophos” meaning “wise” and “Moros” meaning “fool”. syn: Chris Simms. I like the Panthers too. I think Simms will have a few good games this year (just like last year), but this ain’t gonna be one. The Carolina D is probably the last thing Simms needs, well except for maybe the Bears D. I’ll take Carolina too: Panthers 24 Bucs 17
Jets +5.5 over BILLS
Bills have looked decent, especially on D. They were a botched safety from knocking the Pats off in Foxboro, then beat the popular "team on the rise" Dolphins in Miami. Now they get their home opener against the Jets, who have also been decent, whipping the Titans and playing the Patriots tough. So, using the common measuring stick of the Patriots, it looks like these teams are both better than expected. (Or are the Patriots worse than expected?) Anyways, I like the Bills at home, but I'll take those points. Bills 24, Jets 20.
Buffalo has looked good, haven’t they? Then again, maybe St. Ides was right all along: the Jets problem was Herm Edwards. However, I think the Bills at home is going to be too much for the Jets to handle. The division is in their grasp and I see a big performance from the only team that plays football in New York. Bills 31 Jets 17
Jacksonville +6.5 over COLTS
The Jags sure kicked the crap out of the Steelers, didn't they? When was the last time Big Ben had a good game? When they beat the Colts in the AFC semi-finals? Anyways, both teams are cruising at 2-0, with the Jags' schedule getting MUCH easier in the coming weeks. They have a great run defense, but since when do the Colts depend on the run? Let's see how good their pass defense is. It'll depend on how well they pressure Peyton, and seems teams now have a recipe for getting to him. Colts win, but don't cover. Colts 23, Jags 17.
Nah, the Colts at home will win by at least 7 and maybe more. The reason why the Jags looked so good against the Steelers is because (a) they stopped the run and (b) Big Dumb Ben had his appendix removed 2 weeks ago so he really didn’t throw very well. Last time I checked, Paytee-Pie’s appendix was fine. Oh, and so was his receivers. Colts 34 – Jags 21
Titans +10.5 over DOLPHINS
Is it Vince Young time yet? Just in case you were wondering what the passer rating for Kerry "Whiskey" Collins was last week (and I know you are), here it is: 1.3. Yes, 1.3. You could put me in there and I could throw 10 balls into the ground, and have a higher rating. In fact, I think his BAC was higher. Anyways, yeah, the Titans stink, but the Dolphins have some QB issues themselves, with Culpepper looking about as mobile as David Ortiz back there, and missing wide open receivers. A score in garbage time, and the Titans cover. Dolphins 26, Titans 17.
“As mobile as David Ortiz”. Nice. I read these one at a time, and write my response for each so that one made me laugh out loud. OK, I’ll admit that this is a guess because after 2 weeks I’m not sure that the fins are 10.5 points better than anyone. However, I do know that the Titans are really awful. If Vince plays my guess is this game will be closer. If Collins plays, I’m liking the Dolphins. Oh, and I’m too lazy to research this… Dolphins 27 Titans 10
Bengals +2.5 over STEELERS
Steelers looked horrible last week. Big Ben sucked. Reports emerged he was playing with a 104 fever. But then it was corrected, it was only 100.4 temperature. Anyways, everybody was talking about the "Superbowl Hangover/Jinx" for the Seahawks since no team since 1999 has lost the Super Bowl and made the playoffs the following year. Further proof who really should have lost the Super Bowl will be the Steelers rapid downfall. Now that I got scorched by comparing Roethlisberger to Trent Dilfer (manages game well, but not a great passer, or QB really), the karma has swung the other way, and I go back to that claim: Not. That. Good. Now that Joey Porter's pit bulls have eaten a neighbor's horse for lunch, the Football Gods will surely frown upon the Stealers. Oh and did I mention Polamalu has a bum shoulder and is basically playing with one arm? Mark it down right now: Steelers are not making the playoffs. Bengals 30, Steelers 16.
The real reason the Steelers lost last week was because they refused to play Najeh Davenport. My thought is as long as he’s on the bench, the Steelers won’t have a prayer. We all know how I feel about Carson Palmer, but I’m going to pick against him anyway. I like the Steelers at home, with a dose of Najeh and a healthier Ben making Cincinnati look like “Ben’s Gals”. Steelers 27 Bengals 24
Ravens -6.5 over BROWNS
Boring game, but I'll just say this: Steve McNair isn't a Hall of Famer, but he's like 20 times better than any QB the Ravens have had since they won the Super Bowl several years ago (I'm too lazy to look up the year, 2001 maybe?). That's enough for them to win 3-4 more games than last year. Ravens 20, Browns 10.
Yeah, the Raven’s D is making a comeback and I’m happy for Steve McNair, one of the true good guys in the NFL. The Browns? OK team… that’s a lot of points to cover but I’ll take the Ravens. Ravens 23 Browns 15
CARDS -4.5 over Rams
Cardinals beat the Niners at home. Rams lost to the Niners in San Fran. Seattle did a great job shutting down Boldin and Fitzgerald last week (Combined 10 catches for 114 yards - most weeks they EACH do about that). But trust me when I say the Seattle defense can be scary good this year. And the Rams defense isn't close. This should be a tight game, but I think the Cardinals keep their winning streak in their new stadium alive with a close win. Cardinals 31, Rams 26.
I’m going with the Cardinals as well. The home field advantage will be the difference maker, and although I don’t have a lot of respect for Denny Green I see a win on the horizon for the Cardinals. Cards 27 Rams 20
Giants +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
The reverse jinx has worked great these past two years so far. Did you hear the latest on this one? The NFL has sent a memo to Seattle saying they're sending an official to the game to keep an eye on it. Not because of shoddy officiating, but because someone complained that Seattle is pumping artificial noise into the stadium. Uh oh, bad news for the Giants, who had something like 11 false start penalties last year. Holmgren and the defense are already jumping all over this story, using it to motivate the crowd to be even louder. Something like, "That's crazy? Artificial noise? We don't need to do that here, the fans are loud enough. And a story like this just might get them angry enough to be even louder." So yeah, look for noise to be a factor. Oh, and everybody points out that Feely missed 3 game-winning FGs in that game. What they forget is both Giants TDs were controversial: Shockey got his clock absolutely cleaned in the end zone and dropped the ball, but the refs gave it to him. And Toomer had a toenail out of bounds in the back of the end zone, yet got the benefit of the doubt. I really hope this game will be a blowout (and it should be really), but I'm not sure Seattle's offense is clicking just yet. Seahawks 20, Giants 17.
The Giant D is a tough D to get your offense going against. But Seattle at home against any east coast team is worth at least 3 points just for the time zone. So the question is are the Seahawks a half a point better than the Giants? Absolutely. Now don’t get me wrong: the Giants are the second best team in the NFC, but they’re simply not in the same class as the Seahawks. Seahawks 31 Giants 24
NINERS +5.5 over Eagles
Simple reason for this pick really: home team getting points. Niners are finally looking decent, as they beat the Rams and gave the Cardinals a scare. Eagles have a long long flight to think about that blown game againt the Giants last week. Plus Westbrook has a sore knee. Upset special of the week here, they win outright! Niners 23, Eagles 21.
Wow. Gutsy call by St. Ides. I’m going the other way, but I’m thinking the same way my partner in crime is. I’m wagering that the aforementioned long plane ride will be more than enough to fire up the Eagles. That’s a pretty good football team, and the Niners are not. Eagles 34 Niners 17
PATRIOTS -6.5 over Broncos
Jake the Snake is living on borrowed time, and this week won't help him much. Although the Broncos are pretty desperate, and play the Patriots tough, look for Brady to step up and win this one handily. Patriots 27, Broncos 10.
“They suck on the road”. This is an easy game to pick. The Pats are going to get better as the year goes on, and I see a big step happening against the Broncos this week. The Pats D will be too much for the Broncos to handle, who may score 10 but no more. Patriots 24 Broncos 10
Falcons -3.5 over SAINTS
As nice a story as it may be for the Saints to be 2-0, have a new QB and RB they can look towards for the future, and are returning to New Orleans after Katrina for this Monday Night game... Vick and the Falcons are running wild, and their defense looks pretty good. The Falcons have rushed for 558 yards in 2 games. 2 games. Think about that for a second. I think only something like 4-5 RBs have ever put up 2000 yard rushing seasons, and that's with 1 guy carrying the entire workload. The Falcons are on pace to rush for 4464 yards. That's two 2000 rushers (Dunn and Vick?). That's like insane. Anyways, maybe Atlanta finally figured out they don't need Vick to throw the ball to win. It will be interesting to watch. Falcons 27, Saints 20.
Can the Saints lose the Superdome’s grand reopening? Here’s a hot news flash: throw out all the analysis for this game. The same people who scripted that Super Bowl win for the Steelers couldn’t write a better feel good story than this one. Of course the Saints will win, down by 5 in the last seconds of the game with a miracle punt return by Reggie Bush. If the Falcons do win this game, it just might restore my faith. Maybe. Saints 26 Vick’s clap infested and formerly indicted penis 24
Friday, September 15, 2006
We're Back! Week 2 NFL Picks
Hello, Sports Fans! (And all 2 or 3 of our loyal readers.) Well, we were a bit lazy this season, and didn't quite get an NFL Preview off, or even our Week 1 picks. But the fans demanded our return, so here we go with our Week 2 picks!
Still pretty early in the season, and the bookies haven't even figured out what's what yet. Last week, almost all the spreads were under 4 points. This week, we have 5 spreads over 10 points. Yeah, that's a lot of points to give. Anyways, here's some shots in the dark.
Greetings from America’s all time favorite blogging fools, and a special hello to our 2 biggest fans: my wife and Anonymous. And may I note to my wife that I am writing during my lunch hour which is my time and not my bosses. Also, thanks for all the work you did on the fence Tuesday, that was amazing. When do you want to go to Lowes? I’d like to get the new doors installed. BTW, I need to take care of the windshield. Do you want them to come to the house or should I have them do it at work?
Now… if the bookies haven’t figured out what’s going on yet what are the odds that Ol’ Samichlaus has a clue? He’s still in shock over the christflogging the Bears put on the Packers last week. But anyway, here we go….
Giants +3.5 over EAGLES
McNabb looked like his old self last week. And the recently aqcuired Donte Stallworth looked like he could fill their void for a #1 WR. Their defense is solid as always (though DB Lito Shepherd is hurt now). But that was against the frickin Texans. Meanwhile, the Giants lost the "Manning Bowl", but just barely. (Maybe now we'll get less commercials starring the Mannings? Sheesh.) Anyways, with the Giants going to Seattle for Week 3, they're in danger of falling to 0-3, not good for a team lots of people picked to win the NFC East. (Small tangent - lots of "experts" keep saying how the NFC East is the league's toughest division. Only the Eagles won in Week 1. Just wanted to mention that, cause if the Skins, Giants, Cowboys, and/or Eagles suck this year, I'm going to come back to this point. A lot.) Giants pull it out by shutting down Stallworth and Westbrook. Giants 24, Eagles 23
I like the G-men in this game as well. The Giants played the mighty Colts pretty even last week, and St. Ides's analysis of the Giants predicament if they lose is dead on balls. Can the rule of the more desperate team apply as early as week two? You betcha. Giants win it outright... Giants 23 Eagles 17
Lions +8.5 over BEARS
Back to the experts - lots of them claimed Seattle is in trouble cause their offensive line looked horrible last week, and how they already miss Hutchinson. Truth is Detroit DT Shaun Rodgers is a frickin monster. Let's see how Hutch handles him one-on-one when the Vikes play Detroit twice this season. Here's a prediction - he doesn't fare much better. Anyways, Roy Williams' ridiculous guarantee aside, the Lions defense looks pretty decent, and the Bears aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse. They shouldn't be giving almost 9 points to anybody. It might take Jon Kitna and co. a few more weeks to settle intothe Mike Martz offense, but look for the Lions to challenge the Beas for the Division later this season. Bears 13, Lions 6.
I think the Lions season was last week, and I hope Detroit enjoyed it. That's as good as its going to get for the NFC North also rans, and I fully expect the Bears to shut them down at Soldier Field. Besides, the Bears offense is better than you might think. Da Bears walk away with an easy win.... Bears 17 Lions 3
PACKERS +1.5 over Saints
Packers getting points at home two weeks in a row? Ouch. It can't possibly get worse than last week, can it? And the Packerswill be able to win at least one of their first two home games, won't they? For Favre (and Samichlaus), I hope so. Watch out for Reggie Bush though, he just might be for real. (Also, the over/under on the BAC of new Packer Koren Robinson is 0.15. I'll take the over.) Packers 23, Saints 20.
St. Ides and I agree again! I'm taking the over. I'll say he blows a .17 before the bye week. Meanwhile, the last time these teams played the Packers put on a show in front of Mrs. Samichlaus and me and trounced the Saints 55 - 3. The acquisition of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will help the Saints, but I can't believe it will help them THAT much. Meanwhile, the Packers are officially in panic mode. They are clearly the more desperate team and will pull out all the stops to win this week. Packers 35 Saints 17
Panthers -2.5 over VIKINGS
Not sure how the Vikings are home dogs after beating the Skins on the road and after that awful opener by the Panthers. Oh wait,I know how. John Fox is a good coach and there's no way his team doesn't bounce back from that disaster. Plus Jake Delhomme won't have John Abraham in his face all day. Plus Steve Smith ought to be back. Anyways, if you notice a bias against the Vikings this season, it's not imagined. I want them to lose, and lose badly. F Hutch. Panthers 26, Vikings 17.
I'm going the other way. Now that Mike Tice is out of the picture, there's nothing holding that team back. Say what you want about Hutchinson, he was a great acquisition. Fuck Ted Thompson for not having the balls to play hardball the way the VIkings did and bringing one of the best O linemen in the game to Green Bay. Like we don't need any of those. Shit. Vikings 27 Panthers 24
FALCONS -5.5 over Bucanneers
After the Ravens destroyed the Bucs last week, there was some talk that Chris Simms was heard "whimpering" as he was being hit over and over again. Not a good sign. And last year, I think it was Dan Marino, but anyways some announcer questioned the "toughness" of Chris Simms. His response? Nothing. Instead Daddy Phil Simms spoke up for his little boy and said that he was as tough as they came, blah blah blah. Apparently the younger Simms is a good team guy who everybody loves. But they won't be loving him if he keeps losing. And there's something to be said in general about these "sons of players" players who grow up rich. Who's tougher? Chris Simms and Eli Manning who grew up with the luxury of being the sons of rich and famous players, or someone from the hood who grew up playing football so they stayed out of jail. I thought so. Oh yeah, and supposedly the Falcons are just about done trying to force a square peg (Michael Vick) into a round hole (the West Coast Offense) and are gonna just let him do his thing. Falcons 23, Bucs 13.
I heard a great story about the Vick family last week. And please, put this in the right perspective, I know this Hokie fanatic friend down here who ends every rant about the Hokie hero he's talking about with "and he comes from a great family". Apparanty during the Sugar Bowl in 1998 Vick's family wanted to fight in the stands with FSU quarterback Chris Weinke's family and were forcibly removed from the stadium. Also, since we've last chatted Vick settled the infamous "Ron Mexico" lawsuit for an undisclosed monitary sum. Meanwhile Marcus remains firmly entrenched on the Dolphins practice squad. Great family. As far as the Bucs go, I said all last year that Chris Simms doesn't have the mental capacity to play quarterback in the NFL. Does it really surprise anyone that someone that blond would not only be an idiot, he'd also be a wussy? Vick's herpes infested penis 27, Phil Simms gay son 15.
Bills +6.5 over DOLPHINS
I really wanted to take the Dolphins, but two reasons I can't: First, the Bills somehow hung with the Patriots in Week 1 in Foxboro, and probably should have won that game. Second, Daunt Culpepper looked awful, and I mean AWFUL, in the opener against the Steelers. Balls clanging at the feet of wide open receivers, overthrowing a wide open receiver on an easy touch pass in the end zone, balls thrown out of bounds by 10 yards (and he wasn't trying to throw it away). He either needs to shake off the rust, or he's back to his pre-injury form from last year where he threw like 15 picks in 4 games. Dolphins 20, Bills 17.
6.5 is a lot but I'm going to risk it. I've never thought Daunte was a great quarterback, or even a good one for that matter. His hands are too small, spanning about 8" from pinky to thumb. But I like them at home and I like them by a touchdown. The Bills on the other hand hung with the Pats because the Pats played a lousy game. I'm going to swim with the fishes. Dolphins 23 Bills 10
COLTS -13.5 over Texans
Texans stink. Passing on Reggie Bush for Mario Williams maybe become this century's version of passing on Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie. Colts roll. Colts 31, Texans 13.
You mean to tell me the addition of Mike Sherman to the Texans coaching staff doesn't sweeten the pot for you? How 'bout if we throw in a little Samkon Gado? Yep, the Texans still suck. Pretty quarterback and all. Colts 37 - Texans 17
Browns +10.5 over BENGALS
Bengals looked good in dismantling the Chiefs in KC (with that dismantling including the near decapitation of Trent Green). Browns lost at home to the Saints. But 10 points is too much to give a divisional rivalry where the teams aren't really that far apart talent-wise. Or maybe they are. Anyways, divisional rivalry and stuff, blah blah blah. Bengals 30, Browns 20.
I think the Bengals are bigger than you think. I watched them play the Packers in preseason and they looked real good on both sides of the ball. In particular I must point out the play of their quarterback Carson Palmer. Let me be the first to proclain that Carson Palmer could very well be the best young quarterback in the league. I'll take the Bengals big. Bengals 35 Browns 10
RAVENS -11.5 over Raiders
Two words: Aaron Brooks. Here's two more words: God awful.
I'm still a bit shocked the Raiders didn't draft a QB this past draft and are depending on Brooks. Who may arguably be the worst starting QB in the league that's actually had a steady starting job for the longest time. If that makes sense. Second shutout in a row for the rejuvenatedRavens D. Ravens 16, Raiders 0.
Aaron Brooks. Now there's a discussion worth having. I mean, who is a worse starting quarterback? Last year I'd have said Kyle Boller, but I do believe that Steve McNair starts for the Ravens these days. With all that said, I'm having a hard time the Raiders are as bad as they looked last week. I'm taking a chance with this one, but I'm taking the Raiders and the points. Ravens 26 Raiders 17
Cardinals +6.5 over SEAHAWKS
Does last week'sclose win against the Lions scare me? A little. Does the Cardinals WR combo of Fitzgerald and Boldin terrify me? Absolutely. But here's the thing... Their offensive line still sucks. And Kurt Warner still gets rattled when under pressure. (In fact, in these teams first meeting last year, we knocked Warner out of the game. In came Josh McNown, and Football Gods wrote "Game Over" on the game.) New acquisition Deion Branch won't play this week, but they don't need him yet, as their WR core is healthy. I'm expecting 5-7 sacks from the Seattle D (including Julian Peterson and Lofa Tatupu getting in on the action) and a late garbage TD to keep Seattle from covering. Seahawks 27, Cardinals 23.
I wondered how bad that game against Detroit would fuck with St. Ides's head. Here's what's going to happen: The Seahawks are going to show up this week, and if they get 5 - 7 sacks as my partner in crime suggests they should cover easily. Seattle is hands down the best team in the NFC and one of the best teams in the NFL. Last week was an anomoly. The Seahawks will win, and win easy. The Cardinals and their head coach are simply overrrated. Seattle 38 Arizona 10
Rams -2.5 over NINERS
The Niners gave the Cardinals a run for their money last week. (Quick side note: rumor has it that the Cardinals explicitly requested, and were given, the Niners for the opening game at theirnew stadium last week. Wouldn't it have been justice if they would have lost?) Meanwhile the Rams kicked 6 field goals with no TDs, but shut down the Broncos offense. Mike Martz (offensive guru) is out. Jim Haslett (defensive guru) is in. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Rams surprise some people this year with an improved D. Though it'll only be improved so much simply cause they're not incredibly talented. Still, having a coach who knows how to play defense will help. Rams 20, Niners 13.
Jim Haslett. Didn't he used to coach the Saints? The Niners are a better team now that Mike McCarthy is no longer on their coaching staff. Oops, did I say that? I like the Niners at home, but I don't know why. Oh yeah, its St. Ides dad who loves those home dogs. Can he be my adopted dad? Or at least my drinking buddy? Niners 17 - Rams 14
Patriots -5.5 over JETS
Jets surprised some people by beating the Titans on the road last week. Let me remind you that Kerry Collins, who was signed by the Titans less than 3 weeks ago, was the Titans starter. Expect Tom Brady to bounce back from a shaky game last week and go to town. Don't let last week fool you - the Jets still stink. Patriots 24, Jets 10.
I like the Pats in this game too. Tom Brady said that the Deion Branch issue got to him last week and it affected his game. Brady stunk it up big time, what's the odds of that happening two weeks in a row. The Patriots were out of sync and out of step... and they still won. They've got better players than the Jets and a better coach than the Jets. I think they win by a touchdown. Pats 24 - Jets 17
CHARGERS +11.5 over Titans
Let me remind you that Kerry Collins, who was signed by the Titans less than 3 weeks ago, is the Titans starter. Chargers defense looks pretty brutal, and that Merriman guy (who barely beat out Lofa for Defensive Rookie of the Year last season) is a beast. Not to mention even when teams KNOW Tomlinson is touching the ball 30-40 times a game, they still can't stop him. Chargers 29, Titans 9.
This is an ugly mismatch. What's the over / under on LT's yardage, 150? 175? How about the over / under on Collins's BAC? It's the Chargers in a runaway Bolts 31 Titans 10
BRONCOS -10.5 over Chiefs
Who's the Chiefs QB now that Trent Green is out? Seriously, I don't even know. It's not Todd Collins, is it? Sheesh. Anyways, yeah, between Green being out and my unexplainable complete lack of faith in Herm Edwards as a coach, the Chiefs are going to stink. Broncos lost to the Rams and Plummer looked awful, but Denver also lost in Week 1 last week to the Dolphins (who everybody thought was going to suck). Broncos 26, Chiefs 13.
The Broncos lost last week because (repeat after me)... they suck on the road. And guess what? Even with Trent Green, so do the Cheifs. These are two historically great home teams and two historically lousy road teams, so this is an easy pick. Broncos 28 Cheifs 13
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS
Loser of this game is 0-2 in the "Toughest Division in the League." Drew Bledsoe is as immobile as ever. Shouldn't be long before TO starts complaining. Vandershank is unhealthy (not to mentionshaky in clutch moments). Clinton Portis showed some guts playing last week, and should be better this week. Matchup to watch: TO vs. Skins safety Sean Taylor. The dude is from U. Miami (and we know what upstanding citizens they produce), hits hard, plays dirty, and should probably be in jail. Anyways, Vanderjerk misses the potential game winner. Skins 17, Cowboys 16
Vandershank. That's pretty funny. I don't think the Skins are as good as everyone around Richmond thinks they are. In fact, as tough as these teams play each other, I think the Cowboys are going to win this game by a touchdown or more. That team has too many weapons, and I don't think the Redskins can stop them. Cowboys 24 Redskins 17.
Steelers +.05 over JAGUARS
As much as I hate the Stealers, I think Jacksonville is going to be one of those maddening teams this year that can look great or awful any given week. They pulled a minor upset against Dallas last week. Roethlisberger should be back, although Chaz Batch played just fine in his absence. Look for Byron Leftwich to start a season of inconsistency this week, with people clamoring for David Garard by Week 11. Steelers 24, Jags 13.
Chaz??? Christ on a popsicle stick. The difference maker in this game is going to be none other than Najeh Davenport. That's right, you heard it here first. Davenport was picked up by the Steelers who are pretty much done with Duce Staley as Willie Parker's backup. I can't even begin to imagine what Najeh will do with actual blockers in front of him. The only problem is he doesn't have a cool nickname like "The Bus" or "Fast". I'll have to work on that. Anyway, the Samichlaus household will be tuning in to Monday Night Football this week so my wife can see her favorite player play for a real football team. Steelers 27 Jags 17.
Still pretty early in the season, and the bookies haven't even figured out what's what yet. Last week, almost all the spreads were under 4 points. This week, we have 5 spreads over 10 points. Yeah, that's a lot of points to give. Anyways, here's some shots in the dark.
Greetings from America’s all time favorite blogging fools, and a special hello to our 2 biggest fans: my wife and Anonymous. And may I note to my wife that I am writing during my lunch hour which is my time and not my bosses. Also, thanks for all the work you did on the fence Tuesday, that was amazing. When do you want to go to Lowes? I’d like to get the new doors installed. BTW, I need to take care of the windshield. Do you want them to come to the house or should I have them do it at work?
Now… if the bookies haven’t figured out what’s going on yet what are the odds that Ol’ Samichlaus has a clue? He’s still in shock over the christflogging the Bears put on the Packers last week. But anyway, here we go….
Giants +3.5 over EAGLES
McNabb looked like his old self last week. And the recently aqcuired Donte Stallworth looked like he could fill their void for a #1 WR. Their defense is solid as always (though DB Lito Shepherd is hurt now). But that was against the frickin Texans. Meanwhile, the Giants lost the "Manning Bowl", but just barely. (Maybe now we'll get less commercials starring the Mannings? Sheesh.) Anyways, with the Giants going to Seattle for Week 3, they're in danger of falling to 0-3, not good for a team lots of people picked to win the NFC East. (Small tangent - lots of "experts" keep saying how the NFC East is the league's toughest division. Only the Eagles won in Week 1. Just wanted to mention that, cause if the Skins, Giants, Cowboys, and/or Eagles suck this year, I'm going to come back to this point. A lot.) Giants pull it out by shutting down Stallworth and Westbrook. Giants 24, Eagles 23
I like the G-men in this game as well. The Giants played the mighty Colts pretty even last week, and St. Ides's analysis of the Giants predicament if they lose is dead on balls. Can the rule of the more desperate team apply as early as week two? You betcha. Giants win it outright... Giants 23 Eagles 17
Lions +8.5 over BEARS
Back to the experts - lots of them claimed Seattle is in trouble cause their offensive line looked horrible last week, and how they already miss Hutchinson. Truth is Detroit DT Shaun Rodgers is a frickin monster. Let's see how Hutch handles him one-on-one when the Vikes play Detroit twice this season. Here's a prediction - he doesn't fare much better. Anyways, Roy Williams' ridiculous guarantee aside, the Lions defense looks pretty decent, and the Bears aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse. They shouldn't be giving almost 9 points to anybody. It might take Jon Kitna and co. a few more weeks to settle intothe Mike Martz offense, but look for the Lions to challenge the Beas for the Division later this season. Bears 13, Lions 6.
I think the Lions season was last week, and I hope Detroit enjoyed it. That's as good as its going to get for the NFC North also rans, and I fully expect the Bears to shut them down at Soldier Field. Besides, the Bears offense is better than you might think. Da Bears walk away with an easy win.... Bears 17 Lions 3
PACKERS +1.5 over Saints
Packers getting points at home two weeks in a row? Ouch. It can't possibly get worse than last week, can it? And the Packerswill be able to win at least one of their first two home games, won't they? For Favre (and Samichlaus), I hope so. Watch out for Reggie Bush though, he just might be for real. (Also, the over/under on the BAC of new Packer Koren Robinson is 0.15. I'll take the over.) Packers 23, Saints 20.
St. Ides and I agree again! I'm taking the over. I'll say he blows a .17 before the bye week. Meanwhile, the last time these teams played the Packers put on a show in front of Mrs. Samichlaus and me and trounced the Saints 55 - 3. The acquisition of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will help the Saints, but I can't believe it will help them THAT much. Meanwhile, the Packers are officially in panic mode. They are clearly the more desperate team and will pull out all the stops to win this week. Packers 35 Saints 17
Panthers -2.5 over VIKINGS
Not sure how the Vikings are home dogs after beating the Skins on the road and after that awful opener by the Panthers. Oh wait,I know how. John Fox is a good coach and there's no way his team doesn't bounce back from that disaster. Plus Jake Delhomme won't have John Abraham in his face all day. Plus Steve Smith ought to be back. Anyways, if you notice a bias against the Vikings this season, it's not imagined. I want them to lose, and lose badly. F Hutch. Panthers 26, Vikings 17.
I'm going the other way. Now that Mike Tice is out of the picture, there's nothing holding that team back. Say what you want about Hutchinson, he was a great acquisition. Fuck Ted Thompson for not having the balls to play hardball the way the VIkings did and bringing one of the best O linemen in the game to Green Bay. Like we don't need any of those. Shit. Vikings 27 Panthers 24
FALCONS -5.5 over Bucanneers
After the Ravens destroyed the Bucs last week, there was some talk that Chris Simms was heard "whimpering" as he was being hit over and over again. Not a good sign. And last year, I think it was Dan Marino, but anyways some announcer questioned the "toughness" of Chris Simms. His response? Nothing. Instead Daddy Phil Simms spoke up for his little boy and said that he was as tough as they came, blah blah blah. Apparently the younger Simms is a good team guy who everybody loves. But they won't be loving him if he keeps losing. And there's something to be said in general about these "sons of players" players who grow up rich. Who's tougher? Chris Simms and Eli Manning who grew up with the luxury of being the sons of rich and famous players, or someone from the hood who grew up playing football so they stayed out of jail. I thought so. Oh yeah, and supposedly the Falcons are just about done trying to force a square peg (Michael Vick) into a round hole (the West Coast Offense) and are gonna just let him do his thing. Falcons 23, Bucs 13.
I heard a great story about the Vick family last week. And please, put this in the right perspective, I know this Hokie fanatic friend down here who ends every rant about the Hokie hero he's talking about with "and he comes from a great family". Apparanty during the Sugar Bowl in 1998 Vick's family wanted to fight in the stands with FSU quarterback Chris Weinke's family and were forcibly removed from the stadium. Also, since we've last chatted Vick settled the infamous "Ron Mexico" lawsuit for an undisclosed monitary sum. Meanwhile Marcus remains firmly entrenched on the Dolphins practice squad. Great family. As far as the Bucs go, I said all last year that Chris Simms doesn't have the mental capacity to play quarterback in the NFL. Does it really surprise anyone that someone that blond would not only be an idiot, he'd also be a wussy? Vick's herpes infested penis 27, Phil Simms gay son 15.
Bills +6.5 over DOLPHINS
I really wanted to take the Dolphins, but two reasons I can't: First, the Bills somehow hung with the Patriots in Week 1 in Foxboro, and probably should have won that game. Second, Daunt Culpepper looked awful, and I mean AWFUL, in the opener against the Steelers. Balls clanging at the feet of wide open receivers, overthrowing a wide open receiver on an easy touch pass in the end zone, balls thrown out of bounds by 10 yards (and he wasn't trying to throw it away). He either needs to shake off the rust, or he's back to his pre-injury form from last year where he threw like 15 picks in 4 games. Dolphins 20, Bills 17.
6.5 is a lot but I'm going to risk it. I've never thought Daunte was a great quarterback, or even a good one for that matter. His hands are too small, spanning about 8" from pinky to thumb. But I like them at home and I like them by a touchdown. The Bills on the other hand hung with the Pats because the Pats played a lousy game. I'm going to swim with the fishes. Dolphins 23 Bills 10
COLTS -13.5 over Texans
Texans stink. Passing on Reggie Bush for Mario Williams maybe become this century's version of passing on Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie. Colts roll. Colts 31, Texans 13.
You mean to tell me the addition of Mike Sherman to the Texans coaching staff doesn't sweeten the pot for you? How 'bout if we throw in a little Samkon Gado? Yep, the Texans still suck. Pretty quarterback and all. Colts 37 - Texans 17
Browns +10.5 over BENGALS
Bengals looked good in dismantling the Chiefs in KC (with that dismantling including the near decapitation of Trent Green). Browns lost at home to the Saints. But 10 points is too much to give a divisional rivalry where the teams aren't really that far apart talent-wise. Or maybe they are. Anyways, divisional rivalry and stuff, blah blah blah. Bengals 30, Browns 20.
I think the Bengals are bigger than you think. I watched them play the Packers in preseason and they looked real good on both sides of the ball. In particular I must point out the play of their quarterback Carson Palmer. Let me be the first to proclain that Carson Palmer could very well be the best young quarterback in the league. I'll take the Bengals big. Bengals 35 Browns 10
RAVENS -11.5 over Raiders
Two words: Aaron Brooks. Here's two more words: God awful.
I'm still a bit shocked the Raiders didn't draft a QB this past draft and are depending on Brooks. Who may arguably be the worst starting QB in the league that's actually had a steady starting job for the longest time. If that makes sense. Second shutout in a row for the rejuvenatedRavens D. Ravens 16, Raiders 0.
Aaron Brooks. Now there's a discussion worth having. I mean, who is a worse starting quarterback? Last year I'd have said Kyle Boller, but I do believe that Steve McNair starts for the Ravens these days. With all that said, I'm having a hard time the Raiders are as bad as they looked last week. I'm taking a chance with this one, but I'm taking the Raiders and the points. Ravens 26 Raiders 17
Cardinals +6.5 over SEAHAWKS
Does last week'sclose win against the Lions scare me? A little. Does the Cardinals WR combo of Fitzgerald and Boldin terrify me? Absolutely. But here's the thing... Their offensive line still sucks. And Kurt Warner still gets rattled when under pressure. (In fact, in these teams first meeting last year, we knocked Warner out of the game. In came Josh McNown, and Football Gods wrote "Game Over" on the game.) New acquisition Deion Branch won't play this week, but they don't need him yet, as their WR core is healthy. I'm expecting 5-7 sacks from the Seattle D (including Julian Peterson and Lofa Tatupu getting in on the action) and a late garbage TD to keep Seattle from covering. Seahawks 27, Cardinals 23.
I wondered how bad that game against Detroit would fuck with St. Ides's head. Here's what's going to happen: The Seahawks are going to show up this week, and if they get 5 - 7 sacks as my partner in crime suggests they should cover easily. Seattle is hands down the best team in the NFC and one of the best teams in the NFL. Last week was an anomoly. The Seahawks will win, and win easy. The Cardinals and their head coach are simply overrrated. Seattle 38 Arizona 10
Rams -2.5 over NINERS
The Niners gave the Cardinals a run for their money last week. (Quick side note: rumor has it that the Cardinals explicitly requested, and were given, the Niners for the opening game at theirnew stadium last week. Wouldn't it have been justice if they would have lost?) Meanwhile the Rams kicked 6 field goals with no TDs, but shut down the Broncos offense. Mike Martz (offensive guru) is out. Jim Haslett (defensive guru) is in. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Rams surprise some people this year with an improved D. Though it'll only be improved so much simply cause they're not incredibly talented. Still, having a coach who knows how to play defense will help. Rams 20, Niners 13.
Jim Haslett. Didn't he used to coach the Saints? The Niners are a better team now that Mike McCarthy is no longer on their coaching staff. Oops, did I say that? I like the Niners at home, but I don't know why. Oh yeah, its St. Ides dad who loves those home dogs. Can he be my adopted dad? Or at least my drinking buddy? Niners 17 - Rams 14
Patriots -5.5 over JETS
Jets surprised some people by beating the Titans on the road last week. Let me remind you that Kerry Collins, who was signed by the Titans less than 3 weeks ago, was the Titans starter. Expect Tom Brady to bounce back from a shaky game last week and go to town. Don't let last week fool you - the Jets still stink. Patriots 24, Jets 10.
I like the Pats in this game too. Tom Brady said that the Deion Branch issue got to him last week and it affected his game. Brady stunk it up big time, what's the odds of that happening two weeks in a row. The Patriots were out of sync and out of step... and they still won. They've got better players than the Jets and a better coach than the Jets. I think they win by a touchdown. Pats 24 - Jets 17
CHARGERS +11.5 over Titans
Let me remind you that Kerry Collins, who was signed by the Titans less than 3 weeks ago, is the Titans starter. Chargers defense looks pretty brutal, and that Merriman guy (who barely beat out Lofa for Defensive Rookie of the Year last season) is a beast. Not to mention even when teams KNOW Tomlinson is touching the ball 30-40 times a game, they still can't stop him. Chargers 29, Titans 9.
This is an ugly mismatch. What's the over / under on LT's yardage, 150? 175? How about the over / under on Collins's BAC? It's the Chargers in a runaway Bolts 31 Titans 10
BRONCOS -10.5 over Chiefs
Who's the Chiefs QB now that Trent Green is out? Seriously, I don't even know. It's not Todd Collins, is it? Sheesh. Anyways, yeah, between Green being out and my unexplainable complete lack of faith in Herm Edwards as a coach, the Chiefs are going to stink. Broncos lost to the Rams and Plummer looked awful, but Denver also lost in Week 1 last week to the Dolphins (who everybody thought was going to suck). Broncos 26, Chiefs 13.
The Broncos lost last week because (repeat after me)... they suck on the road. And guess what? Even with Trent Green, so do the Cheifs. These are two historically great home teams and two historically lousy road teams, so this is an easy pick. Broncos 28 Cheifs 13
Redskins +5.5 over COWBOYS
Loser of this game is 0-2 in the "Toughest Division in the League." Drew Bledsoe is as immobile as ever. Shouldn't be long before TO starts complaining. Vandershank is unhealthy (not to mentionshaky in clutch moments). Clinton Portis showed some guts playing last week, and should be better this week. Matchup to watch: TO vs. Skins safety Sean Taylor. The dude is from U. Miami (and we know what upstanding citizens they produce), hits hard, plays dirty, and should probably be in jail. Anyways, Vanderjerk misses the potential game winner. Skins 17, Cowboys 16
Vandershank. That's pretty funny. I don't think the Skins are as good as everyone around Richmond thinks they are. In fact, as tough as these teams play each other, I think the Cowboys are going to win this game by a touchdown or more. That team has too many weapons, and I don't think the Redskins can stop them. Cowboys 24 Redskins 17.
Steelers +.05 over JAGUARS
As much as I hate the Stealers, I think Jacksonville is going to be one of those maddening teams this year that can look great or awful any given week. They pulled a minor upset against Dallas last week. Roethlisberger should be back, although Chaz Batch played just fine in his absence. Look for Byron Leftwich to start a season of inconsistency this week, with people clamoring for David Garard by Week 11. Steelers 24, Jags 13.
Chaz??? Christ on a popsicle stick. The difference maker in this game is going to be none other than Najeh Davenport. That's right, you heard it here first. Davenport was picked up by the Steelers who are pretty much done with Duce Staley as Willie Parker's backup. I can't even begin to imagine what Najeh will do with actual blockers in front of him. The only problem is he doesn't have a cool nickname like "The Bus" or "Fast". I'll have to work on that. Anyway, the Samichlaus household will be tuning in to Monday Night Football this week so my wife can see her favorite player play for a real football team. Steelers 27 Jags 17.
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