Week 3 Picks

Of course we'll keep track of how we do throughout the season, but it's still early for St. Ides to recover from a horrendous start:

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 11-5
St. Ides: 6-10 (ouch)

Loyal SBS readers know the drill: St. Ides always starts out slow then follows up with a strong season keeping out picks reasonably close throughout the season. I’ll bet Michigan’s stunning defeat of Notre Dame in South Bend might have motivated his brain cells this week. Either way, there are a lot of great games this week so let’s get started….

Redskins -3.5 over TEXANS
Portis should be back this week, though still not 100%. The Texans, who were thought to have a decent running game with rookie Wali Lundy, haven't decided what they're doing with the new Lundy/Gado/Dayne platoon. You think they regret passing on Reggie Bush yet? Me too. If Mario Williams can't get a sack on the rapidly aging Mark Brunell, it's time to start throwing around the "bust" word I think. Anyways, this game might be closer than we think, but I'll take the skins to avoid going 0-3 after having huge expectations. Skins 20, Texans 16.

And speaking of great games, this isn’t one of them. The Texans must be having a little buyers remorse for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Samkon Gado played well during garbage time last week, breaking off a 26 yard gain running with the familiar Mike Sherman blocking scheme. However, I will agree with St. Ides. The Redskins are a better team and should break out. Lose, and their done. Skins 27, Texans 17

Bears -3.5 over VIKINGS
Both teams are 2-0, and it's a fairly important divisional game early on. Vikings have been impressive so far, beating the Skins and Panthers, two teams the "experts" thought would be very good. Rex Grossman frickin exploded last week for the Bears. I'm going to say the Vikes get knocked down to earth a bit here against this Bears defense, and they're not quite ready to make a move to take the division just yet. Bears 20, Vikings 13.

I like the Bears too. Like I said last week, their offense is better than people think. The only way they don’t dominate this game is if their D doesn’t show up, and that’s not likely against a division rival. The Vikes? Good team, but not in the same league as the Bears. Bears 24, Vikings 10.

LIONS -6.5 over Packers
Two 0-2 teams. I hate to say it, but last week's loss may have been enough for the Packers to really start wondering if they can beat anybody. When the defense plays well, the offense does nothing. When the offense plays well, the defense vanishes. At home, against that Packers D (how is A.J. Hawk looking by the way), that might be just what Jon Kitna and Mike Martz need to get the Lions offense going. Lions 27, Packers 20.

After week one, Brett Favre had this to say: “Maybe we ain’t that good”. I agree with St. Ides analysis 100%, and I think the Lions will win this game outright, but the Packers showed enough last week to tell me they’ll keep it close. The X factor is the coaching staff. Last week I saw players out of position on defense resulting in several huge plays, I saw Brett having to direct his players where to stand (shaking his head in disgust at one point), and I saw coverage mismatches that were inexcusable. All of this is on the coaching staff. That’s got to improve now. Take the Packers and the points: Lions 27 Packers 24

Panthers -2.5 over BUCS
Looks like we were right on last week about Chris Simms. Get the fork ready, he's just about done. Meanwhile, looks like Steve Smith is back for the Panthers, and just in time for them to try and get their "Super Bowl season" (as so many "experts" predicted) back on track. I'll take John Fox over Jon Gruden any day of the week. Panthers 23, Bucs 10.

Sophomore: (Greek). From the words “Sophos” meaning “wise” and “Moros” meaning “fool”. syn: Chris Simms. I like the Panthers too. I think Simms will have a few good games this year (just like last year), but this ain’t gonna be one. The Carolina D is probably the last thing Simms needs, well except for maybe the Bears D. I’ll take Carolina too: Panthers 24 Bucs 17

Jets +5.5 over BILLS
Bills have looked decent, especially on D. They were a botched safety from knocking the Pats off in Foxboro, then beat the popular "team on the rise" Dolphins in Miami. Now they get their home opener against the Jets, who have also been decent, whipping the Titans and playing the Patriots tough. So, using the common measuring stick of the Patriots, it looks like these teams are both better than expected. (Or are the Patriots worse than expected?) Anyways, I like the Bills at home, but I'll take those points. Bills 24, Jets 20.

Buffalo has looked good, haven’t they? Then again, maybe St. Ides was right all along: the Jets problem was Herm Edwards. However, I think the Bills at home is going to be too much for the Jets to handle. The division is in their grasp and I see a big performance from the only team that plays football in New York. Bills 31 Jets 17

Jacksonville +6.5 over COLTS
The Jags sure kicked the crap out of the Steelers, didn't they? When was the last time Big Ben had a good game? When they beat the Colts in the AFC semi-finals? Anyways, both teams are cruising at 2-0, with the Jags' schedule getting MUCH easier in the coming weeks. They have a great run defense, but since when do the Colts depend on the run? Let's see how good their pass defense is. It'll depend on how well they pressure Peyton, and seems teams now have a recipe for getting to him. Colts win, but don't cover. Colts 23, Jags 17.

Nah, the Colts at home will win by at least 7 and maybe more. The reason why the Jags looked so good against the Steelers is because (a) they stopped the run and (b) Big Dumb Ben had his appendix removed 2 weeks ago so he really didn’t throw very well. Last time I checked, Paytee-Pie’s appendix was fine. Oh, and so was his receivers. Colts 34 – Jags 21

Titans +10.5 over DOLPHINS
Is it Vince Young time yet? Just in case you were wondering what the passer rating for Kerry "Whiskey" Collins was last week (and I know you are), here it is: 1.3. Yes, 1.3. You could put me in there and I could throw 10 balls into the ground, and have a higher rating. In fact, I think his BAC was higher. Anyways, yeah, the Titans stink, but the Dolphins have some QB issues themselves, with Culpepper looking about as mobile as David Ortiz back there, and missing wide open receivers. A score in garbage time, and the Titans cover. Dolphins 26, Titans 17.

“As mobile as David Ortiz”. Nice. I read these one at a time, and write my response for each so that one made me laugh out loud. OK, I’ll admit that this is a guess because after 2 weeks I’m not sure that the fins are 10.5 points better than anyone. However, I do know that the Titans are really awful. If Vince plays my guess is this game will be closer. If Collins plays, I’m liking the Dolphins. Oh, and I’m too lazy to research this… Dolphins 27 Titans 10

Bengals +2.5 over STEELERS
Steelers looked horrible last week. Big Ben sucked. Reports emerged he was playing with a 104 fever. But then it was corrected, it was only 100.4 temperature. Anyways, everybody was talking about the "Superbowl Hangover/Jinx" for the Seahawks since no team since 1999 has lost the Super Bowl and made the playoffs the following year. Further proof who really should have lost the Super Bowl will be the Steelers rapid downfall. Now that I got scorched by comparing Roethlisberger to Trent Dilfer (manages game well, but not a great passer, or QB really), the karma has swung the other way, and I go back to that claim: Not. That. Good. Now that Joey Porter's pit bulls have eaten a neighbor's horse for lunch, the Football Gods will surely frown upon the Stealers. Oh and did I mention Polamalu has a bum shoulder and is basically playing with one arm? Mark it down right now: Steelers are not making the playoffs. Bengals 30, Steelers 16.

The real reason the Steelers lost last week was because they refused to play Najeh Davenport. My thought is as long as he’s on the bench, the Steelers won’t have a prayer. We all know how I feel about Carson Palmer, but I’m going to pick against him anyway. I like the Steelers at home, with a dose of Najeh and a healthier Ben making Cincinnati look like “Ben’s Gals”. Steelers 27 Bengals 24

Ravens -6.5 over BROWNS
Boring game, but I'll just say this: Steve McNair isn't a Hall of Famer, but he's like 20 times better than any QB the Ravens have had since they won the Super Bowl several years ago (I'm too lazy to look up the year, 2001 maybe?). That's enough for them to win 3-4 more games than last year. Ravens 20, Browns 10.

Yeah, the Raven’s D is making a comeback and I’m happy for Steve McNair, one of the true good guys in the NFL. The Browns? OK team… that’s a lot of points to cover but I’ll take the Ravens. Ravens 23 Browns 15

CARDS -4.5 over Rams
Cardinals beat the Niners at home. Rams lost to the Niners in San Fran. Seattle did a great job shutting down Boldin and Fitzgerald last week (Combined 10 catches for 114 yards - most weeks they EACH do about that). But trust me when I say the Seattle defense can be scary good this year. And the Rams defense isn't close. This should be a tight game, but I think the Cardinals keep their winning streak in their new stadium alive with a close win. Cardinals 31, Rams 26.

I’m going with the Cardinals as well. The home field advantage will be the difference maker, and although I don’t have a lot of respect for Denny Green I see a win on the horizon for the Cardinals. Cards 27 Rams 20

Giants +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
The reverse jinx has worked great these past two years so far. Did you hear the latest on this one? The NFL has sent a memo to Seattle saying they're sending an official to the game to keep an eye on it. Not because of shoddy officiating, but because someone complained that Seattle is pumping artificial noise into the stadium. Uh oh, bad news for the Giants, who had something like 11 false start penalties last year. Holmgren and the defense are already jumping all over this story, using it to motivate the crowd to be even louder. Something like, "That's crazy? Artificial noise? We don't need to do that here, the fans are loud enough. And a story like this just might get them angry enough to be even louder." So yeah, look for noise to be a factor. Oh, and everybody points out that Feely missed 3 game-winning FGs in that game. What they forget is both Giants TDs were controversial: Shockey got his clock absolutely cleaned in the end zone and dropped the ball, but the refs gave it to him. And Toomer had a toenail out of bounds in the back of the end zone, yet got the benefit of the doubt. I really hope this game will be a blowout (and it should be really), but I'm not sure Seattle's offense is clicking just yet. Seahawks 20, Giants 17.

The Giant D is a tough D to get your offense going against. But Seattle at home against any east coast team is worth at least 3 points just for the time zone. So the question is are the Seahawks a half a point better than the Giants? Absolutely. Now don’t get me wrong: the Giants are the second best team in the NFC, but they’re simply not in the same class as the Seahawks. Seahawks 31 Giants 24

NINERS +5.5 over Eagles
Simple reason for this pick really: home team getting points. Niners are finally looking decent, as they beat the Rams and gave the Cardinals a scare. Eagles have a long long flight to think about that blown game againt the Giants last week. Plus Westbrook has a sore knee. Upset special of the week here, they win outright! Niners 23, Eagles 21.

Wow. Gutsy call by St. Ides. I’m going the other way, but I’m thinking the same way my partner in crime is. I’m wagering that the aforementioned long plane ride will be more than enough to fire up the Eagles. That’s a pretty good football team, and the Niners are not. Eagles 34 Niners 17

PATRIOTS -6.5 over Broncos
Jake the Snake is living on borrowed time, and this week won't help him much. Although the Broncos are pretty desperate, and play the Patriots tough, look for Brady to step up and win this one handily. Patriots 27, Broncos 10.

“They suck on the road”. This is an easy game to pick. The Pats are going to get better as the year goes on, and I see a big step happening against the Broncos this week. The Pats D will be too much for the Broncos to handle, who may score 10 but no more. Patriots 24 Broncos 10

Falcons -3.5 over SAINTS
As nice a story as it may be for the Saints to be 2-0, have a new QB and RB they can look towards for the future, and are returning to New Orleans after Katrina for this Monday Night game... Vick and the Falcons are running wild, and their defense looks pretty good. The Falcons have rushed for 558 yards in 2 games. 2 games. Think about that for a second. I think only something like 4-5 RBs have ever put up 2000 yard rushing seasons, and that's with 1 guy carrying the entire workload. The Falcons are on pace to rush for 4464 yards. That's two 2000 rushers (Dunn and Vick?). That's like insane. Anyways, maybe Atlanta finally figured out they don't need Vick to throw the ball to win. It will be interesting to watch. Falcons 27, Saints 20.

Can the Saints lose the Superdome’s grand reopening? Here’s a hot news flash: throw out all the analysis for this game. The same people who scripted that Super Bowl win for the Steelers couldn’t write a better feel good story than this one. Of course the Saints will win, down by 5 in the last seconds of the game with a miracle punt return by Reggie Bush. If the Falcons do win this game, it just might restore my faith. Maybe. Saints 26 Vick’s clap infested and formerly indicted penis 24