Week 4 Picks

The whole TO drama is worth its own blog, but we're lazy. So yeah, I'll just say this - I'm still not sure whether to believe him or not that he didn't really try to kill himself. Maybe we'll get to hear the 911 tape. Maybe some doctor will come out and say "Uhhh yeah, it's BS, you don't get all loopy from mixing supplements and pain killers." Maybe it was his PR woman at that press conference that was so unconvincing, or her wild hair. But yeah, it seems this dude has had one of the weirdest careers I can remember.

My apologies to all of our reader who en mass requested these picks for Thursday. Although it is still technically Thursday, it's pretty late and I'm pretty tired. I'm also pretty but that's another story. So here's the deal kids, Samichalus is a big time executive for a small town software firm. That means 'Ol Samichlaus doesn't have a lot of free time during the day. Man, I miss the days when St. Ides and I worked together. There was nothing to do but have fun, get drunk, and write goofy shit. No seriously, did you ever see some of the code he did back then?

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 6-8
St. Ides: 4-10

Overall:
Samichlaus: 17-13
St. Ides: 10-20

FALCONS -7.5 over Cardinals
Someone please shoot me for picking against the Saints last week. Samichlaus nailed it - no way they were losing their return to New Orleans game. The conspiracy theories are already popping up, with the ridiculous opening minutes blocked punt returned for a touchdown at the top of the evidence list. So yeah, I'm going to go ahead and say the Falcons threw that game, to give the world a "feel good" story. They come back this week with a vengeance. Falcons 26, Cardinals 13.

Of course the story line wasn't exactly as I'd predicted, but the outcome was as predictable as that first blocked punt. So tell me, has there been a Matt Leinart sighting yet? This week the script writers owe the Falcons one, so I'm taking them as well: Vicks Clap Infested and Formerly Indicted Penis 31 Cardinals 17

TITANS +9.5 over Cowboys
That's too many points to pass up on at home. Last week they were getting 10 at Miami, and kept it pretty close all game. This week they face a Cowboys team that will be distracted by the TO drama. When will we see Vince Young? Could be this week. Cowboys 23, Titans 16.

Who starts first? Leinart or Young? I like the Titans in this game too, but watch 'em pull the upset win straight up. It's the Samichlaus Shocker of the week: Titans 27 Cowgirls 24

Vikings +1.5 over BILLS
Vikings hung in there against the Bears last week. The Bills have played surprisingly well. But they lost to the Jets last week in their home opener. And uhhhh, yeah, I think the Vikings are probably quite a bit better than the Jets. Vikings 20, Bills 10.

I don't know what the hell happened to the Bills last week. I'm telling you, that one shocked me. Then again, so did the Packer game. Bills win and cover: Bills 23 Viqueens 17

Saints +7.5 over PANTHERS
Probably the toughest game to pick because of the aforementioned fixed game in New Orleans handing the game to the Saints. So are they really 3-0 good? The Panthers needed a last second long field goal to barely beat the struggling Bucs and Chris Simms playing with a ruptured spleen. So doesn't this spread seem surprisingly high? Unless Vegas knows the same thing we do: the Saints were handed those wins on a silver platter. They're really not that good, espcially on defense. Still, somehow I can't bring myself to lay a touchdown. Panthers 20, Saints 13.

I was all set to pick the Cats until I read St. Ides's analysis. Damn. Shit. Let me stick with my gut. I think the script writers have told the Saints "You're on your own", and without the extra help this is a pretty sad team. Cats win and cover: Cats 24 Saints 14.

Niners +6.5 over CHIEFS
Okay, so I was wrong about the Niners upsetting the Eagles last week. Very wrong. (Though the game was closer than the score, that fumble return on the goal line for a touchdown was a 14-point swing.) Yes, KC is probably one of the top 3 toughest places to play. But who's their QB now? Damon Huard? And how's that O-line looked? Not good. Oh and I continue to stick by my claim that Herm Edwards is not a good coach. I think during their bye week people must have forgotten how bad the Chiefs looked and how knocked silly Trent Green was. Oh, and their defense still stinks. Chiefs 27, Niners 24.

The Niners are on the comeback trail, but these paths are hardly linear. I see a misstep this week for the Niners, a young team in a very loud stadium that won't be able to get their precision offense going. Cheifs 31 Niners 10

Colts -8.5 over JETS
If the Colts can cover a by a TD over the tough Jaguards, I think they can manage to squeeze a few more points out against the Jets. Colts 34, Jets 17.

OK, I'm going to bet against the Colts. I think the Jets are the real deal, I've seen enough to believe they'll keep it close. Jets with the points: Colts 34 Jets 31

TEXANS +3.5 over Dolphins
Yes, the Texans are pretty bad. But so are the Dolphins, who barely beat the Titans last week at home. For a change, David Carr has actually looked pretty good. (I think he's like the 2nd highest rated QB in the league. Too lazy to look it up right now. Okay, what the hell, I know it's hard to believe, I'll look it up... Okay, correction: He's the TOP rated QB in the league: 113.6 rating. 6 TDs, just one pick. ) Anyways, the problem with the Texans this year is their defense (as usual) and their running game (but no, they didn't need Reggie Bush). Culpepper continues to throw balls into the ground and float them into the stands. So yeah, don't be shocked if the Texans win this outright. Texans 20, Dolphins 16.

The "St. Ides Shocker of the week"???!!! No figgin WAY! Pretty Boy's the highest rated QB in the league???? Motherfucker! Too bad I still can't pick 'em, but judging by that close spread St. Ides might be on to something... Still, I think the Fins are ready to break out... Dolphins 31 Texans 20

Chargers -2.5 over RAVENS
Two of the top defenses in the league. But here's the difference: despite the addition of Steve McNair, the Ravens offense still isn't very good. It'll be tough to shut down Tomlinson, but if they do, this could be the first real test for Phillip Rivers (who, by the way, is the 2nd highest rated QB in the league, behind Carr). Chargers 19, Ravens 13.

Philip Rivers is arguably the best young quarterback in the league. Psych! I'm going to take the Ravens at home. Baltimore is tough in that stadium, and as much as I like the Chargers I see the Ravens D coming up big and stopping them cold. Ravens 17 Chargers 14

RAMS -5.5 over Lions
After a frisky opening game against Seattle, the Lions haven't shown much. And this is Mike Martz's homecoming. Sadly, Jon Kitna and Roy Williams are no Warner/Bulger and Holt/Bruce combo. Watch for the Rams to run Steven Jackson down the Lions' throat in a not-so-subtle message to Martz that he should have run the damn ball more. Well, probably not, but it'd be funny to see. Rams 23, Lions 16.

I dunno, Kitna and Williams looked pretty fucking good to me against the Packers "Matador Defense" O'le. Seriously, I like the "run Jackson" line, that's a good plan, but you have to know that Mike Martz (Super Genius) will pull out all the stops in this one. The Lions get their first win: Lions 31 Rams 21

Patriots +5.5 over BENGALS
After a huge win in Pittsburgh last week, this is a classic letdown game for the Bengals, especially since the Patriots don't look very tough right now. And this is exactly the sort of game where everybody is doubting the Patriots this season, and they somehow win and suddenly everyone is like "Uh oh, they're back." If the Patriots don't at least keep this one close, you can pretty much stick a fork in them. Then again, they have a bunch of games left against the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins, so winning the division will still be a reasonable goal. Patriots 16, Bengals 13.

I think Anonymous captured the spirit of the Pats best during your little lively exchange earlier this week. I don't see the Bengals or Carson Palmer (who many consider to be the best young quarterback in the league) to let up. The Patriots are still a good team and so everybody puts their A game forward when they come to town. The Bengals go for the kill shot: Bengals 28 Pats 17

Browns -2.5 over RAIDERS
The Raiders are so bad they're actually getting points at home against the 0-3 Browns. Browns showed some signs of life last week against the Ravens, and lost on a last second kick. Aaron Brooks is out. Some dude named Walter is in. (And I'm not sure if that's his first name or last name.) Bet against Art Shell until he wins. Browns 20, Raiders 10.

Bet against Art Shell... is that a "shell game"??? yuk yuk yuk... OK, who really cares about this one? Lately Raider Nation has been looking more and more like Afghanistan. What's the over/under on Art Shell out, Jim Bates in: Week 8? Browns 20 Raiders 10

Jaguars -2.5 over REDSKINS
The Skins offense finally came to life last week. But it was against the Texans. The Jags hung with the Colts, but their passing game couldn't really get it done, and Josh Scobey missed 2 field goals (including one under 30 yards). This should be a pretty close game, but I'm gonna go with the Jags D shutting down Brunell and Portis. Jaguars 17, Redskins 9.

Texans: worst D in the league. Jaguars: second best D in the league. Any questions? Jags 20 Skins 10 (though if there's going to be a direct hit this week, I'd take St. Ides's score)

BEARS -3.5 over Seahawks
Shaun Alexader will not play, despite him proclaiming his foot much better, and that it healed miraculously through prayer. The MRI still shows a crack in his foot. He won't play for awhile. That said, Maurice Morris is not a huge dropoff, and gives a different look to the offense. One could argue he's actually better suited for the West Coast Offense, as he's an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and he's quick with a good speed burst. Whereas Alexander is a more patient runner who finds the cutback lanes, Morris can hit those holes quick and be gone. Still, the Bears defense is as good as it gets. Seattle will likely show the 4-WR set over 20 times this game (I think they did it about 15 last week, and that was with Alexander healthy), so we'll see just how good the Bears defense is with their nickel and dime defensive backs in. I don't see Grossman and the suddenly alive Bears offense doing much against this underrated Seattle D. The D that shut down an impressive Giants offense for 3 and a half quarters last week. Low scoring game. And the reverse jinx is 2-0 so far this year. Bears 16, Seahawks 10.

This is a tough pick, and I'm not sure how it plays out. On paper, the Bears are not in the same class as the Seahawks. But their tough at home and there D is superb. Conversely, the Seahawks came alive last week, big time. Factor in that Mike Holmgren has a terriffic record against Chicago and knows how to coach there, and this becomes a Seahawk win, Seattle 31 Bears 21

EAGLES -10.5 over Packers
The last time the Eagles were on Monday Night Football, they were getting absolutely shellacked and embarassed by Seattle. Of course, McNabb wasn't playing that game. Interesting side note: there's a decent chance that the Phillies will wind up tied for the NL Wild Card with the Padres or Dodgers, in which case a one-game "play in" game will be held on Monday afternoon. So that'd be a pretty huge sports day for Philly fans. And the Eagles are the less likely of the two to let them down. Eagles 27, Packers 16.

It ain't even going to be close. The Packers D is a mess. I actually started to write a blog about it on Monday and I still haven't finished it. It's too painful. They can't stop the run, and they consistantly give up about 7 big plays a game... to LOUSY TEAMS!!!!! Favre has a tough time in Philly... the last time the Packers won in Philly, Vince Lombardi was the head coach (1962). Last year the Eagles without Westbrook and Mc Nabb won by about 35. Want more? Ahman Green is nursing a sore hammy. William Henderson is about to lose his starting job to a no name off the practice squad. Our best defensive back has been Ahmad Carrol. Our Safetys have no figgin clue who they're supposed to cover... Brady Popinga is a starting linebacker... Jesus H. Christ in a Chicken Basket. Eagles 41 Packers 13.