Week 11 (or "Have we always sucked at this stuff like this?")

Here we go!
Not a great week for either of us last week... And it drops Samichlaus below .500 on the season.

I sweard to Jiminy Christ himself I though we had a better week than this. St. Ides hits on it in his first pick: the point spreads have be HUGE. With half the league sitting somewhere between 4-5 and 5-4 the playoff hunt is wide open and parity is alive and well, but somethings going on with the double digit spreads and 'Ol Samichlaus is going to get to the bottom of it.

PS: Look for my Packers breakdown below!

Last Week -
St. Ides: 6-10
Samichlaus: 5-11

Overall -
Samichlaus: 56-58
St. Ides: 51-63


Titans +12.5 over EAGLES
Is it just me, or are there more double-digit spreads than usual this season? Eagles took care of the Skins at home convincingly last week, and should have it easy against the Titans. Which puts them right back in the mix for the NFC East. Vince Young will still probably struggle a bit against good defenses. Eagles 24, Titans 10.

I'm not surprised that Reggie Bush is struggling but I have to say, Vince Young caught me by surprise. I really thought he'd be playing a bit better than he is. It just goes to show you: the college game is childs play next to the NFL. Of course, back in the day the College All Stars used to play the NFL Champs in an exhibition game before the start of the season. One year in the early 1960's, the College All Stars beat Lombardi's Packers (who honestly saw the game for what it was: a meaningless exhibition where the goal is not to get injured). Well, Lombardi didn't see it that way. The following week he tortured the team in ways that would make Bobby Knight squeal like a little girl. But I digress: Eagles 31 Titans 13

BUCS -3.5 over Redskins
Mark Brunell has been benched. Clinton Portis is out for the season. Santana Moss has been banged up. You think this Campbell kid is going to be able to go into Tampa and win against that defense? I doubt it. Though the Bucs rookie QB has looked bad lately too. Bucs 20, Skins 16.

I heard the Brunell press conference. Gotta say, he's a stand-up guy. I think the Redskins have officially given up. They're a team of Hutchinsons: overpayed underperforming free agents, and give Joe Gibbs credit for givind the new kid a chance. Meanwhile, I don't know what to make of the Bucs, but I'll agree with St. Ides. I'm taking "Chuckie" over Gibbs in a close one: Bucs 24 Skins 20

JETS +6.5 over Bears
If they can beat the Pats in Foxboro, I'm thinking they might just have a chance to keep it close at home against the Bears. Grossman has looked awful at times, and if they can pressure him like they did Brady, he might stink it up enough for this to be a tight game. Bears 20, Jets 17.

Hold on to you balls, I think the Jets win this one outright. The only reason the Bears beat the Giants last week was because half the Giants starters were either out or dinged up. J-E-T-S etc. etc. etc. Jets 17 Bears 13

PACKERS +5.5 over Patriots
Anonymous wrote: "I have never seen back to back games of the Pats playing poorly" Oh, how quickly a string of success can make one forget about years of misery. Let me remind him of the good ol' Steve Grogan/Tony Eason era. Anyways, I think Belichek is at the point where he's getting too arrogant, and maybe won't listen to his other coaches or something. That whole thing with Mangini was ridiculous. Meanwhile, Favre is having fun. I think this could be a good game, and I'll go out on a limb and say it'll be close... or a blowout.. one of the other. Patriots 23, Packers 21.

Allright, here's the quick breakdown of the Packers:

Offenseive Scheme: Mike McCarthy is running a traditional West Coast Offense, and it's starting to pay dividends. In previous seasons the Pack had gotten away from the WCO and were running what I like to call the Midwestcoast Offense (clever motherfucker that I am). Favre is somwhere between thrilled and ecstatic to be running this more traditional O and has shown it by putting up Brady-esque numbers.

Passing game: Lots of slants to Donald Driver. Did you see the slant to Driver last week that went for an 83 yard TD? If the Vikes had only read SBS they'd a known it was comming. Truth is Driver and rookie Greg Jennings are becomming quite a 1-2 combo, but both are a bit dinged. TE Bubba Franks has all but been replaced by David Martin in passing situations. Beyond that the receiving corps are made up of pedestrian street free agents and practice squad players. Sort of like the Patriots now that I think of it.

Running Game: McCarthy instituted a zone blocking scheme that's starting to pay dividends. Ahman Green is healthy, but is always a fumble risk. The Pack gets Vernan Morency back, who has been out since he ran for over 100 yards against the Cardinals. William Henderson may get the nod at FB if Brandon Miree is still hurt

Defense: The Packers play a basic 4-3 D, and play man coverage against the pass, with the corners up in press and a variation of quarters for the DBs. They play this very well 95% of the time, but every single game they absolutely blow 1 or 2 coverages. Brady will be all over this. The Packers linebackers have come into their own: Nick Barnett is playing solid and A.J Hawk has improved every week. Even Brady Popinga has played well, but he will have his hands full against the Patriots Tight End attack.

Special Teams: Who cares.

Final Prediction: The Patriots are a well diciplined team and are hungry for a win. The game will be statistically close, but the final score won't. The Pats will exploit the mistake prone Packers and win easy. Patriots 31 Packers 21

DOLPHINS -3.5 over Vikings
Let the QB controversy begin in Minnesota! And before the season started, people wondered why Brad Johnson was the lowest paid starting QB in the league. Their defense is respectable, but their offense blows. And an offense that blows isn't a good thing against a good defense. Let's see how Hutch does against that solid Miami d-line. Dolphins 19, Vikings 10.

The Dolphins have really shown me something the last two weeks, and so have the Vikings. Brad Johnson looked all of his 38 years against the Packers last week and frankly I officially have my doubts about Brad Childress as a coach (to think I really wanted him coaching Green Bay) Dolphins 24 Viqueens 17

RAVENS -4.5 over Falcons
I'm tempted to take the Falcons on the "more desperate team" rule, but they were pretty desperate last week too, and lost at home to the Browns. Mora Jr. is on borrowed time in Atlanta. Ray Lewis might miss a few games, but the Ravens D should still be solid enough to give Vick fits. Notice how quickly the "Wow, maybe he's finally figured it out!" talk has died down about Mr. Mexico? Ravens 26, Falcons 17.

I like the logic about the more desperate team... tough game to pick, is Ray Lewis really a difference maker any more? I like the Ravens a lot this year and I think it's too early to apply the rule of the more desperate team. Maybe. Ravens 31 Mr. Sore Pecker 24

Rams +6.5 over PANTHERS
Early in the season, when they were 4-1, I said something like "Wow, Jim Haslett has done a nice job as the Rams defensive coordinator! Maybe he just wasn't meant to be a head coach, but he knows his defenses!" 4 straight losses later, I take that back. The Rams defense is awful. Still, they manage to keep games close with their offensive attack. I just traded away Steven Jackson in one of my fantasy leagues, so that means he's probably good for like 4 TDs. Upset special? Maybe.... Rams 30, Panthers 28.

I'll go the other way. I think the Rams are ready to blow and the Panthers are the team to blow 'em. Wait, that sounds gay. What I mean is Panther 27 Rams 17

SAINTS -3.5 over Bengals
Both these teams got into shootouts last week, and lost. Saints in Pittsburgh, Bengals at home to San Diego. The Bengals defense can't stop anybody. Regge Bush got his first TD from scrimmage last week, this could be the perfect team to have a nice encore against. Saints 31, Bengals 24.

I like the Bengals in this game. They're a better road team than they get credit for and I'm just not convinced that the Saints are any good. We watched that Steelers game last week (Najeh Davenport is officially number two, uhh, second on the depth charts) and the Saints were less impressive than the score indicates. Bengals 35 Saints 24

TEXANS -2.5 over Bills
Wow, do the Texans own the Jaguars or what? It's scary. Look for Mario Williams to rack up a couple sacks on J.P. Losman. Could this be the "Stinker of the Week"...? Texans 24, Bills 16.

I don't know what to make of the Bills. The Packers should have beat them, then they almost beat the Colts. Meanwhile, I can't seem to get the Texans right either. Have I even gotten one of their games right? Bills 20 Texans 17.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Lions
Nope, this one is. The Cardinals have to win another game, right? I got Anquan Boldin as part of that Steven Jackson deal.. which means he'll have like 1 catch before breaking his collarbone. Cardinals 23, Lions 17.

The SBS Stinker of the week it is. I'll take the Lions just because I like their coach better than I like Denny Green, who evidently can't coach unless he's got a young Daunte Culpepper throwing to Randy Moss and Chris Carter. Of course, I can't remember the name of their coach... Lions 24 Cardinals 17


BROWNS +3.5 over Steelers
Pittsburgh showed some life last week against the Saints. The Browns did too though, and I like what they're doing on offense. Braylon Edwards was talking some smack in this game, saying they want some revenge for the 41-0 ass-whuppin the Steelers laid down on them last year in Cleveland. They might just get it... Maybe... Browns 24, Steelers 23.

It's a long way from last year to this year, but I'm taking Pittsburg. The biggest reason the Saints game was so close was the loss of Troy Polamalu early on with a concussion. He's back this week and so are the Steelers: Steelers 31 Browns 17


Raiders +9.5 over CHIEFS
Trent Green is back, and will be a bit rusty. Tony Gonzalez is out with a sprained shoulder. That means the load falls in Larry Johnson. Somehow the Raiders kept it close against Denver last week, who refused to blitz Andrew Walter a week after the Seahawks racked up 9 sacks against him. Art Shell may be the worst coach in football. Chiefs 20, Raiders 13.

Let's do an analysis of all the coaches in the NFL and rank them. We'll do it seperatly and compare notes. But we do agree on one, eh? I'll take the Chiefs and the points at home. Chiefs 34 Raiders 13


NINERS +3.5 over Seahawks
Trap game. Alexander will be back, and that should provide some emotional boost. But Seattle struggled in San Fran last year against a worse team and had to swat down a last second 2-point conversion to seal the win. Julian Peterson should be pumped up to return to Frisco too. I dunno, I just think Seattle has been playing too well lately with mostly backups, and it's bound to catch up to them eventually. Seahawks 26, Niners 23.

I'll bet it doesn't catch up to them in Frisco. I'll also bet that Hasselback goes along with Alexander, and they both play well. I think the Seahawks are realizing that they can win without their two studs, and if they do they're going to be mighty dangerous. Seahawks 31 Niners 20

Colts +0.5 over COWBOYS
People are pointing to this game as the Colts biggest obstacle towards going unbeaten. The only way to beat the Colts is to pressure Manning non-stop. The Cowboys have the personnel to do it. But somehow I see TO dropping an important pass late, and blowing this one. Colts 30, Cowboys 28.

After last weeks game against the Bills I think the Colts are ready to flop. St. Ides had it right last week: they're not blowing people out. I really thought they'd trounce Buffalo and they couldn't. Something has to give and I think it's this week: Cowboys 24 Colts 17.

BRONCOS -2.5 over Chargers
So far this "flex" thing on Sunday night is working out pretty well. I like the Chargers, but they are banged up on defense. And they were down to the Bengals for a big portion of the game last week. And the Broncos are good at home. Should be a good one, and goes a long way towards deciding the AFC West. Broncos 23, Chargers 20.

I think this is the best game of the week, and I'm starting to think the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL. Chargers - Colts, right now, who would win? As tough as Denver is at home, I like the Chargers. Weather for Sunday is Sunny and temps in the 40s at game time. Bolts 30 Horsies 27

Giants +3.5 over JAGUARS
Despite all the Giants injuries and their poor second half against the Bears, I simply cannot pick a team that has lost to the Texans twice this season. Giants 27, Jags 23.

Yep. The Giants will get healthy this week for sure, and the Jaguars? Well I'm sick of losing picks to them. The Giants win easy on the big stage: Giants 27 Jags 10