Week 9 Picks (In Two Acts) (Second Act now available!)

Back to reality. Just in case anybody thought after the previous week's uncanny 11-2 performance that maybe I'd figured things out a bit and knew what I was doing, here's a nice 4-10 record to prove I don't. I did pick 4 of the teams to win, but I expected them to not cover. Not that it matters, but yeah, my picks weren't really as bad as the record indicates, I just bought into the "take the points" idea a bit too much this week. Damn favorites are covering a lot so far this season.

This week doesn't get any easier, with 4 spreads of 9 points or more. Oh, and this is the last week with bye teams, so full schedules start again next week! And I think that whole "flexible Monday night game" thingy kicks in soon too, with the first game being Bears at Giants in a few weeks. I hope the Bears lose at some point. I'm sick of people kissing their ass.

"And that's why they call it gambling"... Felix Unger

The trip to Green Bay was invigorating for the Samichlaus family, as evidenced by my return to winning ways. We're at the midway point in the season and things are shaking out just as St. Ides said they would: unpredicatbly. We get half of 'em right and half of 'em wrong...

As far as the Bears are concerned: they'll lose to the Giants and NewEngland, they may lose to the Jets, and the Packers have a shot in Soldier Field the last week in December...

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 9-5
St. Ides: 4-10

Overall:
Samichlaus: 44-40
St. Ides: 41-43

Cowboys -3.5 over REDSKINS
Stick a fork in the Skins, they're done. Cowboys looked awful for 3 quarters last week, then somehow the much-praised Panthers defense fell apart and allowed a QB in his first NFL start to rip them apart. At one point during the game, the announcers were talking about how Romo grew up idolizing Favre. How when the Cowboys signed the o-lineman Rivera, Romo was pestering him about what it was like to play with Favre. And the announcers mentioned how Romo does a great impression. A few minutes later, they cut to a pre-recorded clip of the aforementioned impersonation. I have to say, it was pretty funny. I like Romo now. I still hate Parcells and TO though. But anyways, Brunell is toast, the Skins defense is garbage,and Gibbs will be back into retirement soon. Cowboys 27, Redskins 16.

I'm starting to believe that Joe Gibbs may be the worst coach in football. I live in Redskins country and what I'm hearing is that "Gibbs should call the plays" and "the assistant coaches are killing the team". That's secret code for "the head coach is doing a terrible job, but we can't admit it". With that said, I know the Skins are fired up this week. I think St. Ides's analysis is dead on, but I have a funny feeling about this.... Skins 24 Boys 23.

GIANTS -12.5 over Texans
I keep taking the huge spreads, and more often than not, the teams have covered. I don't have exact numbers, but it seems every time I take 10+ points, the team loses by like 40. Giants somehow found their groove. Texans have not. Giants 30, Texans 10.

The G-Men are pretty dinged up, and that's enough to keep this game close. The Texans are experiencing growing pains, and are moving to a cold climate, but are otherwise healthy. Giants by 10, not by 12.5 Giants 31 Texans 21

BEARS -13.5 over Dolphins
I took the Niners +16.5 over the Bears last week. I think it was something like 63-3 at halftime. I'm not making that mistake again. Not just one week later. Bears 69, Dolphins 0.

That's an absurd prediction and you know it. Bears 71 Dolphins 3

LIONS +5.5 over Falcons
Falcons have looked great. Vick is running wild and actually finding the open receiver (9 times out of 10, that's Alge Crumpler) for long passes. They're due for a little bit of a letdown game I think, and the Lions aren't really that bad... Are they? Falcons 26, Lions 21.

Yep, they are that bad. The Falcons convinced me that they can win on the road so I'm officially on the bandwagon. Vicks Sick Dangling Prick 27 Lions 17

Packers +3.5 over BILLS
The Packers are the only team in the league with 3 wins. Exactly 3 wins that is. They're also only one game worse than the Seahawks. Who woulda thunk? Seems Favre is starting to find his groove again. Not sure I'm ready to say the defense looks good, but not getting lit up by the Cardinals is a good sign. The Bills offense isn't very good, and their defense is having something of a youth movement. The Pack is heating up, maybe they can start thinking playoffs! The NFC is wide frickin open. Packers 24, Bills 17.

The Packers have never won in Buffalo. In fact I saw them get their asses kicked there in September of 2000. However they are an improving team. For one, the O line is mastering the zone blocking techinique and is opening up the running game. Last week both Ahman Green and Vernon Morency each rushed for 100 yards. The defense is playing better now that Ahmad Carroll is gone and Brett Favre is having fun (It was a thrill to be able to see Favre's first "Lambeau Leap" in person). Favre's been making better decisions in the passing game and gets back rookie sensation Greg Jennings who missed our game due to injury. Jennings, who is still in some pain, had this to say: ""I think I'll be able to go. I've been getting off the jam, which was the biggest issue going into the Arizona game. Every day I run on it, I'm sore. But that's to be expected. There's nobody in this league that's playing that's 100%. It's something I'm going to have to play with for the rest of the season." I love this kid. Is JP Losman still starting foir the Bills? Good. Packers 27 Bills 17

BUCS +1.5 over Saints
So maybe the Saints illusion has been shattered by the Ravens last week. Reggie Bush hurt his ankle too, though he's expected to play. Meanwhile the Bucs looked like they might have some life in them, before the Giants spanked them in the Meadowlands. Tough game to call, but I'm going with the idea the Saints aren't as good as their record, and the Bucs aren't as bad as theirs. Bucs 20, Saints 17.

Here's a hot news flash: as I predicted, Reggie Bush has not been an impact player. The Saints winning ways have more to do with a good D and Drew Brees. I like the Saints on the road against a team I just have no respect for. Saints 24 Bucs 2o

Chiefs +2.5 over RAMS
Let's play a little "who beat who" logic game, shall we? Chiefs beat the Seahawks. Seahawks beat the Rams. Chiefs beat the Chargers. Chargers spanked the Rams. Yes, both those Chiefs wins were in KC, where they have a big home field advantage. But the loss to Seattle was in their dome. Oh, and the Rams have one of the league's worst run defenses. Larry Johnson is just getting warmed up. The Chiefs D isn't exactly great, but the Rams will be lucky if they force 3 punts all game. Chiefs 37, Rams 35.

Trent Green is out for the Chiefs so that leaves Damon Hooha, err Huard, to run the team. Chiefs are 1-2 on the road. Rams are 2-1 at home. Rams are relatively healthy... Rams 34 Chiefs 27

RAVENS -3.5 over Bengals
The Bungles laid an egg at home against the Falcons. The Ravens just went in and kicked the Saints heineys in New Orleans. Brian Billick fired his friend and offensive coordinator Jim Fassel and called the plays last week. And everybody is crediting him for the offensive explosion. McNair played well enough (though he did get lucky a couple passes weren't picked off, including one of his touchdown passes that deflected off the hands of two defenders). Anyways, I'll buy into it for now. But just barely. Ravens 19, Bengals 13.

The Bengals and Carson Palmer are having a bit of a slump. St. Ides has this one nailed: the Ravens at home against a slumping Bengals team equals a win and a cover: Ravens 24 Bengals 19

Titans +9.5 over JAGUARS
Let's not forget the Jaguars lost to the Texans recently. For some reason, the Jaguars always have close games against their divisional rivals. Against the Colts, that's good, since you're keeping pace with one of the league's best teams. With the Texans and Titans.. that's not such a good thing. Jaguars 23, Titans 17.

Here lies the Samichlaus Stinker of the Week: two teams that I could not care less about. One is 4-3 while the other is 2-4. That's a good observation about the Jags playing it close against their division rivals, so I'll go with that as well. Titans cover.... Jags 26 Titans 20

NINERS +5.5 over Vikings
As I was telling Anonymous all last week, the Vikings are not that good. Then the Patriots proved it. They should have lost to the Lions but their defense saved them. They needed an awful game and a backup QB to beat Seattle. I think they can easily lose this game outright. Niners 20, Vikings 17.

San Fran's two wins came at home and I think that may be good enought to keep it close. Of course, Brad Johnson usually doesn't do anything to beat himself... I'll take San Fran and the points: Vikings 24 San Francisco 23.

CHARGERS -12.5 over Browns
Browns offense finally showed a pulse against the Jets. But even with Merriman out, the Chargers defense is decent. I'm tempted to take all those points and say there will be a garbage time TD to prevent the Chargers from covering... But I'll play it safe. Chargers 27, Browns 13.

I agree with the pick. The big difference is going to be the home field. And let me say for the record that without anybody's assistance or opinions, I believe that Philip Rivers is the best young quarterback in the league. I'll take the Bolts: San Diego 34 Browns 17

Broncos +2.5 over STEELERS
Look! It's the Super Bowl loser curse! Oh wait, the Steelers won... But yeah, Big Ben's disguise as a talented young QB is melting away quickly. Broncos have a good chance to bounce back after Manning had his way with them in Denver. Cowher doesn't have the jaw-jut going this year, and it's almost as if he's already thinking about his retirement after the season. No way do the Steelers make the playoffs. Broncos 26, Steelers 16.

That damn brain trauma is a sonofabitch, ain't it Ben? The Broncos are in a tight battle against the aforementioned Chargers and are now the more desperate team. I think it's time they make a statement game and prove once and for all that they don't suck on the road. Denver 27 Pittsburgh 20

PATRIOTS -2.5 over Colts
Here's what I wrote to Anonymous the other day:

"I'd lean towards Indy too, but just barely. When was the Broncos game, like Week 2 or 3? Brady was in still in disbelief that they traded Branch, and was clearly not comfortable with the receivers he had left. I think it's safe to say he's settled in with them now.

Despite Manning finally winning one against Brady last year, keep in mind he is still one of the biggest choke artists out there when it comes to big games. And no, I don't really consider last week's game a "big game". The Colts own the Broncos for some reason. So if the Colts lost, in Denver, it wouldn't mean much. However, if they lose to the Patriots YET AGAIN, it'll make that one win last year seem like a fluke. This game is much more important for the psyche of the Colts than the Patriots. Which is why they'll likely choke, and are getting points.

Remember, Vegas isn't stupid. If the Patriots were getting points at home, everybody would take them. I mean, when was the last time the Pats got points at home? I'm thinking it had to be pre-Brady."

So I pretty much think Manning still kinda sucks when it really matters. Does this game REALLY matter? No. But in his mind, it probably does. Because he's still the #2 QB in the league in the mind of most people. Oh, and for an added wrinkle, let's throw in a missed Vinatieri kick with a chance to go to OT as the clock expires. Patriots 23, Colts 20.

I have to admit, I'm excited to see this game as well. I might have to TiVo it... OK, so here's the deal: The Colts have been their consistant dominant selves this season. They tend to also be a second half team. Look at the stats: they've had pedestrian first halves and then twisted sick second halves that blow away their opponents. That's not going to happen agains the Pats.

The Pats meanwhile have come into their own and are peaking. Their performance last week was one of the most dominating performances I've ever seen a team put on in some one else's back yard. Not only am I rooting for the Patriots to beat Indy (and injure Peytie Pie... something minor to keep him out a week and break his streak) but I'm picking them as well: Pats 24 Colts 20

Raiders +7.5 over SEAHAWKS
Forget the reverse jinx stuff. I'm actually worried about this game. No Hasselbeck. No Alexander. The defense looks as bad as it has in like 3 years. The Raiders defense is actually better than people might think, at least statistically. And the Raiders have Randy Moss, who should be good for 1-3 catches of 40+ yards against this horrible secondary. Awful. Not to mention the whole "Old AFC West Rivalry" thing they'll be playing up the whole game. And I'm sure we'll see the clip of Bo Jackson running over Bosworth during a Monday night game like 15 years ago. I just hope this time it's not LaMont Jordan running over Tatupu. But really, I am worried about this game and this team. I'm not trying to work the reverse jinx here. If I were, I'd admit it. Seahawks 27, Raiders 26.

Are they still showing that clip? Christ. Why the hell don't they show clips of Jim Zorn for that matter. OK, I admit that the Seahawks are reeling from their injuries, but have you seen your 2006 Oakland Raiders? I still can't believe they've won two. They beat the Cardinals dispite 5 turnovers and beat the Steelers dispite a total offensive (and I do mean offensive) outburst of 98 yards. Their luck can't last forever... Seahawks 27 Raiders 10