Well, we're getting down to the end here folks. I'll spare you my lamenting the Seahawks loss last week (a game they were one play away from winning.. and they had like 6 chances to make that one play...), and just get to the picks.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2
Saints +2.5 over BEARS
Rex Grossman and the Bears barely beat a beat up Seahawks team last week. It took two long pass plays against a depleted secondary and a long field goal to pull out the win. Shaun Alexander repeatedly gouged the defense for 10 yards a pop. Receivers sat down in the holes in the zone and Hasselbeck easily found them. Thomas Jones didn't really do much against a suspect run defense. And I even saw Urlacher miss at least two tackles.
To put it simply, the Bears are overrated. Way overrated. Keep in mind their 13-3 record includes 2 wins over the hapless Lions and Vikings, wins over the Cardinals (a game they should have lost... "They are what we thought they were!"), Niners, and Bucs (in OT). When Seattle made the playoffs, people pointed out they only beat one team with a winning record all season - the Broncos, IN Denver (though they also beat a playoff team in the 8-8 Giants.) Guess what. The Bears only beat two teams over .500 - the Seahawks and Jets. Why is nobody talking about the Bears weak schedule? Because they're the effin Bears, and that gives them some sort of "history" or "aura" or something. Give me a break.
Meanwhile, the Saints are experiencing a turnaround unlike anything in recent memory. Without talking to much about the overdone Katrina disaster, a year ago this was a losing team, an annually disappointing and underachieving franchise, with no home stadium and an owner that wanted to move them out of town. Enter Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Sean Payton. What a difference, huh? For comparison sake (and what the hell, I'll do this for all 4 teams), the Saints also beat two winning teams - the Eagles and Cowboys. But their division was much more competitive, with the Panthers and Falcons both having impressive stretches during the season where they looked like playoff teams (though neither finished above .500).
I said I wasn't going to talk about the whole Katrina thing too much, but just one more point about it - the Saints are this year's "feel good story" in the NFL. Much like Bettis was last year, with his pending retirement and the Super Bowl in his home town. I'm still not totally convinced that there wasn't a conspiracy to give the Super Bowl to the Steelers. And if I'm not totally convinced about that, then I'm surely not convinced the NFL won't do the same thing for the Saints this year. If we start seeing some questionable calls going their way, look for the theorists to start putting together their theories.
In any case, conspiracy or not, the Saints will be in the Super Bowl. If Alexander and an unhealthy Hasselbeck (who we now found out had multiple broken fingers on his left hand and will be having surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder) can do that kind of damage to the Bears, imagine what Brees, Bush, Colston, McAllister, and company will do. Rex Grossman had two pretty big mistakes last week (a fumble inside their own 20 that led to a TD, and an interception in the red zone that took points off the board), but nobody is talking about them because he got away with them, and hit those wide open receivers with a couple bombs. They'll be talking about them this week, and his future will officially be in doubt going into next season.
Saints 27, Bears 24.
Patriots +3.5 over COLTS
Before I forget, the Colts beat 4 teams with winning records - Jets, Pats, Eagles, and Broncos. The Patriots beat 2 - the Jets and the Bears.
Maybe I'm crazy for picking both road teams to win outright, but how can I pick against the Pats? Sooooo many crazy subplots in this game:
Brady vs. Manning
Patriots vs. Colts
Belichick's Excellent Playoff Record vs. Dungy's Crappy Playoff Record
Adam Vinatieri vs. His Old Team
Will Manning Choke Again?
The Colts D That Struggled All Season Suddenly Looks Decent - Can It Continue?
Neither Brady Or Manning Has Played Well In The Playoffs So Far - Yet They've Won
Will Belichick Continue To Dress Worse Than A Homeless Crackhead?
Can I Keep Capitalizing Each Word In A Sentence Fragment Forever?
Here's the thing: The Patriots really should have lost last week. Brady didn't play well. The defense couldn't stop Tomlinson. Brady threw a key interception late in the game. The team was far from perfect.
Yet, they had a few major things go right: Schottenheimer punted on a 4th down he should have gone for it. On the key Brady interception, the defender did a bit too much dipsy doodling, and was stripped of the ball. The Patriots recovered. Then Schottenheimer challenged the play, though it was very very clear it was a fumble. Which means he basically wasted a timeout. That timeout could have bought him another play at the end of the game, which could have gotten them closer for the tying kick. And the 54-yard kick with time expiring missed. Badly.
Basically, if that's any other coach on the other sideline, the Patriots lose. But hey, that's why they're the damn Patriots. And as much as I liek Brady (Michigan alums get alllll my love), I'm starting to get sick of them. They get way too many breaks. Belichick's ego is approaching Brian Billick proportions. When was the last time a call went against the Patriots? Oh, okay, last year's playoffs against Denver, they had a bad call go against them. And before that? Can't think of one, can you? Bastards.
So that's the logic a lot of people are using this week in picking the Colts - the Patriots have been good, but they've also been lucky. You don't win that many games without a little bit of luck. Admit it, dammit. They've had some luck along the way. And the luck has to run out eventually, right? The Football Gods have to turn things around and balance out the Football Karma at some point, no? Belichick's contract with the Devil needs to expire at some point, doesn't it?
I can't really argue with that logic, and I'm very tempted to take the Colts to win on a Vinatieri field goal as time expires, the perfect irony for the Colts and Manning to finally slay their arch nemesis using the hero the Patriots discarded. It seems like the ideal way for the Patriots dynasty to crumble. One for the ages.
But I just can't trust Manning in the playoffs. Cannot do it. Will not do it. He panics. He feels the pressure. He gets happy feet. He's not as confident or accurate. And once Manning starts to struggle, everybody in the building (including his teammates) will think "Here we go again" and it'll be all over for the Colts.
Before I get back into the whole mental game and auras and luck and whatnot, a few words on the actual game itself. The Colts defense has played well in the playoffs. Against the Chiefs, Herm Edwards proved that he's the bad coach I always said he was by not adjusting the gameplan to take advantage of the Colts playing 10 men in the box to stop Larry Johnson. Against the Ravens, Steve McNair basically played horribly. They're playing better, but I have no doubt the Patriots will make them revert to their porous pre-playoffs form. Brady hasn't played great, but he's played good enough to win. How often does Brady have consecutive bad games? Like never. He'll be near perfect this game.
Meanwhile, Manning has been pretty bad in the playoffs. Usually when he has a bad game in the playoffs, his team has lost. Not so this year. Until this week. The Patriots are known for cooking up defensive schemes to confuse the opposing QB, and it works just about every week. The Pats have Manning's number. All his audibles and justiculating don't effect them. They stick with the gameplan, execute, and more often than not, the Colts lose the game.
Now, it might not be fair to compare Manning with Rex Grossman, but follow me here for a moment. Grossman has been up and down all season, struggling mightily at times, mostly down the stretch. There were a lot of questions marks surrounding him going into last week's game. It's obvious once he makes a mistake, he gets rattled, and plays worse. During the Bears first drive of the game, on 3rd and long, Grossman threw the ball down the middle of the field to a tightly covered Bernard Berrian. Jordan Babinauex (aka, the hero from the Dallas game for his shoestring tackle on Romo after the bobbled snap) was in perfect position for the interception. An interception here gives Grossman that early big mistake, and ptus that same "Uh oh, here we go again" thought into his head, his coach's head, his teammates' heads, and the crowd's heads. Instead, the ball glanced through Babineuax's hands, slightly deflected, bounced off Berrian's chest, bounced off Babineaux's arm, and Berrian caught it for a 30 yard gain. Un-frickin-believable. I'm convinced if he picks that ball off, Grossman falls to pieces and Seattle wins easily.
Manning in the playoffs is in the same fragile mental situation as Grossman. And do yo think a similar pass will go through the hands of Asante Samuel? Nope, not for the Patriots. Things go there way. Good coaching and good players is a big part of it, but there's that winning tradition that makes them make plays. The Bears kicked nailed the 49-yarder to beat the Seahawks. The Chargers kicker missed his kick to send it to OT. These things happen to the Patriots. And until the karma swings in the other direction and I see with my own two eyes it go the other way, I'm not betting against them. But the little bit of luck does have to run out sometime. I think.
Patriots 24, Colts 18.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Friday, January 12, 2007
Playoff Picks, Round Two!
It's Divisional Round time, woohoo!
St. Ides went 3-1 last week, including picking the winners of all 4 games. (Only mistake was expecting Indy not to cover.)
Enough chit chat, let's get to the picks!
Colts +4.5 over RAVENS
As you can see from the previous entry, Anonymous likes McNair a hell of a lot more than I do. I don't think he's that great at this point in his career. His receivers are pretty average. The running game isn't exactly scary with the post-prison Jamal Lewis still trying to find his pre-conviction 2000+ yard form. Billick is calling the offensive plays now, and the Ravens have been pretty successful since he took over that job from Jim Fassel during the season. But I'm still not convinced. The Colts D showed a bit of life against the Chiefs last week, so maybe they have a bit of confidence. Freeney played a great game, and if he can put pressure on McNair, we could see some mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, we have Mr. Choke artist himself, Peyton Manning. Only the Chiefs total offensive ineptitude last week prevented Manning's 3 INT game from being more of a story. He didn't play very well. That game should have been an even bigger blowout than it was. But isn't Manning due for a huge playoff win? Doesn't it just seem like he has too much talent to keep fizzling out in the postseason? People like to make the Marino comparison, but Marino never had talent around him like Manning does.
The Ravens D is good, but not quite as dominant as people like to make it out to be. They key is they've stayed healthy. (Only Ray Lewis has missed any games among the defensive starters, and he only missed 2. That's an unheard of lack of injuries.) This game is going to come down to Manning. I hate to say it, but it will. If he can score on the Ravens D (and he has the talent, teammates, and experience to be able to), they can win. If he chokes again, they're toast. They will NOT win if he throws 3 picks again this week. I think Peyton plays decent, but not quite good enough to pull out the win. I'll take the points though.
Ravens 23, Colts 20.
SAINTS -5.5 over Eagles
The Jeff Garcia fairy tale (pun intended) comes to an end as the New Orleans one continues. I mean, come on, I'm not even going to waste too much time on this one. The NFL wants the Saints to win the Super Bowl, just like they wanted the Steelers to win last year.
The dome is going to be rocking, the Eagles are going to really miss Pro Bowl corner Lito Shepperd (dislocated elbow, ouch), and Brees, Bush, McAllister, and Colston will light up the scoreboard. I'd be shocked if the Eagles won this game, despite their roll of late.
Saints 27, Eagles 17.
Seattle +9.5 over BEARS
It looks to me like this spread went up from about 8 to around 9 since Monday. That's a ton of points to be giving. Wow.
A few things to consider here: Everybody points to when the Bears destroyed the Seahawks earlier in the season. 37-6 was the final. That was week 4, October 1st, 2006. Three and a half months ago. The Seahawks were without Shaun Alexader for the first time. The offensive line was banged up, with natural center Chris Spencer starting his first game at left guard. Backup RB Mo Morris got all of 11 carries. Rex Grossman hadn't imploded yet.
These are two different teams now. Very different. Alexander is back, and close to 100%. The offensive line has come together in recent weeks, with Chris Spencer moving to center, where he belongs, and he's playing very well. Hasselbeck has been a bit up and down, but he made some big passes late in the Dallas game. I still have confidence in him. Speaking of confidence, in week 4, Rex Grossman was in the middle of his huge upswing where people were proclaiming him the savior of the Bears' annual offensive woes. Now people are wondering how long Lovie Smith will wait before yanking him for Brian Griese. Bears All World DT Tommy Harris is out. People don't understand how dominant that guy is. In week 4, he was in the Seattle backfield all. Frickin. Day. Nobody could block him. Putting two or three bodies on him allowed Urlacher and others to make the plays. Oh, and Bears safety Mike Brown (who has a knack for making big plays) is out too.
No, this is not the same Bears defense. Not by a longshot.
Another thing people are talking about is how badly Seattle played last week, and how lucky they were to have won. Lucky? Please. Then I guess the Cowboys were just lucky to be in the game, considering they had a punt return for a TD. I guess the Cowboys were lucky Seattle didn't turn that safety into a TD and then go up by even more points. Actually, the Cowboys are lucky Romo did botch it. Because with 1:20 left on the clock, the odds were pretty good Seattle could march right down the field and score the winning FG with time expiring anyways. Luck, my ass. People act like that botched snap lost the game. It did not. The 20+ yard run they allowed on the first play with Seattle pinned inside their own 2, that lost the game.
The Seattle secondary is banged up, but it's not as bad as people thought. Pete Hunter gets allllll my love for coming off the street and playing a solid game at nickel corner. The rookie Jennings played well, and Babineaux (known as "Big Play Babs" since last year, when he had a few timely turnovers) lived up to his nickname with the heads up game saving tackle on Romo. If Romo, TO, and Terry Glenn couldn't exploit this secondary, there's no reason to believe the Bears can.
I said it last week, I'll say it again - the Seahawks coaching staff has done a PHENOMENAL job with game planning on defense the past two postseasons. I expect that to continue.
One other thing worth noting: Jerramy Stevens had the game of his career. He's been plagued with drops ever since the Super Bowl. Last week, he made catch after catch. He had zero drops. The dude is a matchup nightmare. He's 6 foot 7 and fast. Linebackers are too slow (and some are too small). Safeties are too small. If he can continue to be sure-handed, I think he can be the difference maker yet again. Let's see Urlacher try and cover him. And, even if he does a decent job, if Urlacher is 15 yards down the field in coverage, that means he's not at the line in run support.
Anyways, I think Seattle being a huge underdog helps them. A lot. No pressure on them. Yet they know they're the reigning NFC Champs. Meanwhile, the Bears haven't won a home playoff game in 10 years.
I'm leaning towards thinking Seattle wins this game, but man, I just can't pull the trigger. That's way too many points for any playoff game though.
Bears 23, Seahawks 20.
Patriots +4.5 over CHARGERS
I keep telling Anonymous to not worry about this game so much. Belichick and Brady vs. Schottenheimer and Rivers? Come on. I don't care about Tomlinson. I don't care about Merriman. I'd venture to say 90% of playoff games come down to coaching and QB play.
The Patriots are the best in the league in cooking up defensive game plans to confuse the opponent. Philip Rivers has looked like the young QB he is recently. He can easily be confused. The question will be how rattled he gets after the first couple mistakes (and he will make mistakes) and if he can keep himself composed.
Hate to bring Seattle up again, but they should have beaten the Chargers in week 16. It took a last second blown coverage long pass for the Chargers to pull out the win. How did they do it? Pretty easy, contain Tomlinson and force Rivers to beat you. He really shouldn't have been able to. I'm sure the Patriots coaching staff took a good hard look at that film, and I'm sure they learned something. Rivers was something like 0 for his first 11 passes, and Seattle wasn't even doing anything fancy. And if that Seattle defense can execute a pretty simple game plan and have it work, imagine what the Patriots can do?
On the other side of the ball, yes, Shaun Merriman is a roid raging monster. He's unblockable at times. But teams can and will adjust to block him and keep him off balance. He can be a little over aggressive and times, and can be fooled with play actions and bootleg type plays. He had 2 sacks against Seattle, including one on the first snap of the game. But they adjusted, and he was almost a non-factor the rest of the game.
Maybe the key to the game actually will be the tight ends on both teams. Antonio Gates is still probably the best TE in the league, and presents matchup problems. But if Rivers is a bit shaky back there, he might have trouble finding the big target. Ben Watson has had some big catches, and could sneak out of coverage here and there for a big play. Neither team really has standout WRs, so keep an eye on those TEs.
This should be a hell of a game, probably the best game of the weekend. But I'm sticking with the proven playoff winners until someone knocks them off.
Patriots 26, Chargers 24.
St. Ides went 3-1 last week, including picking the winners of all 4 games. (Only mistake was expecting Indy not to cover.)
Enough chit chat, let's get to the picks!
Colts +4.5 over RAVENS
As you can see from the previous entry, Anonymous likes McNair a hell of a lot more than I do. I don't think he's that great at this point in his career. His receivers are pretty average. The running game isn't exactly scary with the post-prison Jamal Lewis still trying to find his pre-conviction 2000+ yard form. Billick is calling the offensive plays now, and the Ravens have been pretty successful since he took over that job from Jim Fassel during the season. But I'm still not convinced. The Colts D showed a bit of life against the Chiefs last week, so maybe they have a bit of confidence. Freeney played a great game, and if he can put pressure on McNair, we could see some mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, we have Mr. Choke artist himself, Peyton Manning. Only the Chiefs total offensive ineptitude last week prevented Manning's 3 INT game from being more of a story. He didn't play very well. That game should have been an even bigger blowout than it was. But isn't Manning due for a huge playoff win? Doesn't it just seem like he has too much talent to keep fizzling out in the postseason? People like to make the Marino comparison, but Marino never had talent around him like Manning does.
The Ravens D is good, but not quite as dominant as people like to make it out to be. They key is they've stayed healthy. (Only Ray Lewis has missed any games among the defensive starters, and he only missed 2. That's an unheard of lack of injuries.) This game is going to come down to Manning. I hate to say it, but it will. If he can score on the Ravens D (and he has the talent, teammates, and experience to be able to), they can win. If he chokes again, they're toast. They will NOT win if he throws 3 picks again this week. I think Peyton plays decent, but not quite good enough to pull out the win. I'll take the points though.
Ravens 23, Colts 20.
SAINTS -5.5 over Eagles
The Jeff Garcia fairy tale (pun intended) comes to an end as the New Orleans one continues. I mean, come on, I'm not even going to waste too much time on this one. The NFL wants the Saints to win the Super Bowl, just like they wanted the Steelers to win last year.
The dome is going to be rocking, the Eagles are going to really miss Pro Bowl corner Lito Shepperd (dislocated elbow, ouch), and Brees, Bush, McAllister, and Colston will light up the scoreboard. I'd be shocked if the Eagles won this game, despite their roll of late.
Saints 27, Eagles 17.
Seattle +9.5 over BEARS
It looks to me like this spread went up from about 8 to around 9 since Monday. That's a ton of points to be giving. Wow.
A few things to consider here: Everybody points to when the Bears destroyed the Seahawks earlier in the season. 37-6 was the final. That was week 4, October 1st, 2006. Three and a half months ago. The Seahawks were without Shaun Alexader for the first time. The offensive line was banged up, with natural center Chris Spencer starting his first game at left guard. Backup RB Mo Morris got all of 11 carries. Rex Grossman hadn't imploded yet.
These are two different teams now. Very different. Alexander is back, and close to 100%. The offensive line has come together in recent weeks, with Chris Spencer moving to center, where he belongs, and he's playing very well. Hasselbeck has been a bit up and down, but he made some big passes late in the Dallas game. I still have confidence in him. Speaking of confidence, in week 4, Rex Grossman was in the middle of his huge upswing where people were proclaiming him the savior of the Bears' annual offensive woes. Now people are wondering how long Lovie Smith will wait before yanking him for Brian Griese. Bears All World DT Tommy Harris is out. People don't understand how dominant that guy is. In week 4, he was in the Seattle backfield all. Frickin. Day. Nobody could block him. Putting two or three bodies on him allowed Urlacher and others to make the plays. Oh, and Bears safety Mike Brown (who has a knack for making big plays) is out too.
No, this is not the same Bears defense. Not by a longshot.
Another thing people are talking about is how badly Seattle played last week, and how lucky they were to have won. Lucky? Please. Then I guess the Cowboys were just lucky to be in the game, considering they had a punt return for a TD. I guess the Cowboys were lucky Seattle didn't turn that safety into a TD and then go up by even more points. Actually, the Cowboys are lucky Romo did botch it. Because with 1:20 left on the clock, the odds were pretty good Seattle could march right down the field and score the winning FG with time expiring anyways. Luck, my ass. People act like that botched snap lost the game. It did not. The 20+ yard run they allowed on the first play with Seattle pinned inside their own 2, that lost the game.
The Seattle secondary is banged up, but it's not as bad as people thought. Pete Hunter gets allllll my love for coming off the street and playing a solid game at nickel corner. The rookie Jennings played well, and Babineaux (known as "Big Play Babs" since last year, when he had a few timely turnovers) lived up to his nickname with the heads up game saving tackle on Romo. If Romo, TO, and Terry Glenn couldn't exploit this secondary, there's no reason to believe the Bears can.
I said it last week, I'll say it again - the Seahawks coaching staff has done a PHENOMENAL job with game planning on defense the past two postseasons. I expect that to continue.
One other thing worth noting: Jerramy Stevens had the game of his career. He's been plagued with drops ever since the Super Bowl. Last week, he made catch after catch. He had zero drops. The dude is a matchup nightmare. He's 6 foot 7 and fast. Linebackers are too slow (and some are too small). Safeties are too small. If he can continue to be sure-handed, I think he can be the difference maker yet again. Let's see Urlacher try and cover him. And, even if he does a decent job, if Urlacher is 15 yards down the field in coverage, that means he's not at the line in run support.
Anyways, I think Seattle being a huge underdog helps them. A lot. No pressure on them. Yet they know they're the reigning NFC Champs. Meanwhile, the Bears haven't won a home playoff game in 10 years.
I'm leaning towards thinking Seattle wins this game, but man, I just can't pull the trigger. That's way too many points for any playoff game though.
Bears 23, Seahawks 20.
Patriots +4.5 over CHARGERS
I keep telling Anonymous to not worry about this game so much. Belichick and Brady vs. Schottenheimer and Rivers? Come on. I don't care about Tomlinson. I don't care about Merriman. I'd venture to say 90% of playoff games come down to coaching and QB play.
The Patriots are the best in the league in cooking up defensive game plans to confuse the opponent. Philip Rivers has looked like the young QB he is recently. He can easily be confused. The question will be how rattled he gets after the first couple mistakes (and he will make mistakes) and if he can keep himself composed.
Hate to bring Seattle up again, but they should have beaten the Chargers in week 16. It took a last second blown coverage long pass for the Chargers to pull out the win. How did they do it? Pretty easy, contain Tomlinson and force Rivers to beat you. He really shouldn't have been able to. I'm sure the Patriots coaching staff took a good hard look at that film, and I'm sure they learned something. Rivers was something like 0 for his first 11 passes, and Seattle wasn't even doing anything fancy. And if that Seattle defense can execute a pretty simple game plan and have it work, imagine what the Patriots can do?
On the other side of the ball, yes, Shaun Merriman is a roid raging monster. He's unblockable at times. But teams can and will adjust to block him and keep him off balance. He can be a little over aggressive and times, and can be fooled with play actions and bootleg type plays. He had 2 sacks against Seattle, including one on the first snap of the game. But they adjusted, and he was almost a non-factor the rest of the game.
Maybe the key to the game actually will be the tight ends on both teams. Antonio Gates is still probably the best TE in the league, and presents matchup problems. But if Rivers is a bit shaky back there, he might have trouble finding the big target. Ben Watson has had some big catches, and could sneak out of coverage here and there for a big play. Neither team really has standout WRs, so keep an eye on those TEs.
This should be a hell of a game, probably the best game of the weekend. But I'm sticking with the proven playoff winners until someone knocks them off.
Patriots 26, Chargers 24.
QB Rankings! (Well, slightly outdated though)
Okay, well, I originally did these rankings on 11/20/06, which is almost 2 months ago. A few things have changed since then. But you can see a couple places where I was right (like where I said I think Romo was good enough to get the Cowboys into the playoffs) and wrong (like where I said the Eagles were done without McNabb). I'm mostly posting this to keep Anonymous happy while I finish some work before posting the playoff picks. Enjoy debating the rankings as they would look now! (My biggest movers between now and then would probably be Eli and Carr dropping several spots, and Alex Smith and VY moving up a few.)
On to the rankings...
1. Pats - Tom Brady
The Super Bowl rings do the talking. He misses the WRs he lost a bit this year I think, and he's suffered a bit from bad play-calling (see the losses to the Colts and Jets), but he's still who you'd most want to have at the helm during the playoffs.
2. Colts - Peyton Manning
I don't think this needs much explanation. He has the numbers, but not the Super Bowl rings (or appearances actually).
3. Philly - Donovon McNabb
The Eagles are just a totally different team with him in there. Watch them now fall out of playoff contention with him gone for the year. Arguably the most important player to any team.
4. Saints - Drew Brees
The Saints huge turnaround this season could be largely credited to Brees. He's looked excellent. And to think the Dolphins saved a few bucks and signed Culpepper instead.
5. Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck
I might have considered putting him at #3 had he not missed the past 4 games. He could finish the season anywhere between #3 and #15, depending on how he leads this shaky Seattle team down the stretch.
6. Rams - Marc Bulger
Has single-handedly killed my fantasy team the past two weeks with poor performances. But his accuracy is pretty damn good most of the time, and he makes very few mistakes. (I think he only has 2 picks all season.) Something about the guy is very... dull... though. Seems like he doesn't have much fire in him most of the time and not much of a personality.
7. Bengals - Carson Palmer
Can we really still call him "the best young QB in the league" any more? He's been around long enough. I think the knee injury is still bothering him a little bit, maybe mentally as much as physically. But he's shown some signs of life these past couple weeks.
8. Packers - Brett Favre
Looks like he's having fun again, and the West Coast Offense is starting to click. Well, aside from yesterday against the Patriots.. Since it sounds like he'll be back next week despite banging up his elbow, I won't bother listing Aaron Rodgers anywhere.
9. Chargers - Phillip Rivers
After a conservative start, he's been let loose. And the Chargers may be the team to beat in the AFC now that the Colts have lost. Impressive comeback win in Denver last night. I guess the Chargers' peeps knew what they were doing when they let Brees get away in free agency. This kid is for real.
10. NYG - Eli Manning
Has looked great at times... and awful at others... Seems he may have inherited the Manning gene for choking in big games, so I don't expect him to really rise above #5 or so on this list ever. And he actually seems less charismatic than Peyton, who woulda thunk that possible?
11. Dallas - Tony Romo
A bit early, but I like this guy so far. And as much as I hate Parcells and the Cowboys, I can easily see him leading them to a playoff berth. The Cowboys have a good defense, and he has the weapons on offense to get it done.
12. Texans - David Carr
This is probably slightly too high for him, but the fact is he's playing well right now. Very few mistakes. He's staying upright more than he's used to. And the Texans are competitive just about every week. Andre Johnson is one of the most underrated receivers in the league, and Carr is finding him often.
13. Panthers - Jake Delhomme
He'd probably be like 5 slots lower if he didn't have Steve Smith making ridiculous catches. He is quietly accurate and mistake-free though.
14. Ravens - Steve McNair
I'm not really a big McNair fan, but he is winning games for the Ravens. Even if a few of those wins did require a lucky bounce or two. There's no way the Ravens have as many wins with Kyle Boller as their QB, so that in itself is worth a few jumps up the list.
15. Jets - Chad Pennington
He looks like his shoulder is holding up okay, and his play is a big reason the Jets are alive in the playoff hunt. He had a rough game against the Bears, but most QBs do. And they were in it til the end.
16. Bears - Rex Grossman
Speaking of the Bears, Grossman has stayed healthy for a change and is getting a lot of credit for giving Chicago a decent offense to go with their dominant defense. But really, he's very inconsistent, and can cost the team the game at any point.
17. Broncos - Jake Plummer
Copy and paste time! "But really, he's very inconsistent, and can cost the team the game at any point." Jake the Snake still makes way too many mistakes. Last year was clearly an anomaly. Look for a first round playoff exit with Jake in control.
18. Falcons - Mike Vick
4 weeks ago, he might have cracked the top 10. Now, he's back down here sandwiched between the likes of Jake Plummer and Jon Kitna. I think it's safe to say Vick is never going to "get it" and suddenly become a top 5 QB in this league.
19. Lions - Jon Kitna
He's actually doing fairly well under Mike Martz's offense, though the Lions' record wouldn't tell you that. The problem with Martz's offense is that it goes pass wacky, and defenses adjust. And Jon Kitna-Roy Williams isn't quite Marc Bulger-Tory Holt.
20. Niners - Alex Smith
He's maturing and looks decent and times. But he's not exactly setting the league on fire and you don't hear too many Sportscenter highlights mentioning his name.
21. Miami - Joey Harrington
New life in Miami? Sure, why not. The bottom line is the Dolphins have won a few big games since he has taken over at QB. Really, it's been the defense winning the games. But Harrington hasn't turned around and lost them right back.
22. Bills - J.P. Losman
Not much to say here other than the Bills are just about where we'd expect them to be, and it sounds like Losman has played well enough to quiet any QB controversy between him and that Holcome guy whose first name I can't even remember right now. You know, the former Browns guy...
23. Chiefs - Trent Green
Probably moves up the list quite a bit if he can show he's recovered from that concussion. But it took a last minute touchdown to beat the Raiders yesterday, and really the Chiefs offense revolves around Larry Johnson. It's not like Green is asked to do a lot.
24. Titans - Vince Young
Typical rookie mistakes and struggles, but showing an occasional sign of life here and there. Way too early to give him a fair rating, but right now, he's not winning too many games on his own.
25. Seattle - Seneca Wallace
2-2 as the starter. Loss in KC was acceptable. Win over the Rams was impressive. Loss to the Niners yesterday while throwing 3 picks and making a few other questionable decisions takes him down several notches. With a well-played game yesterday, he goes to 3-1 as starter and sets himself up for a nice free agent contract from a team considering making him their starter. Instead, he played himself back to the bench and an uncertain future.
26. Steelers - Ben Roethlisburger
Decent comeback win yesterday against the Browns. But that was more thanks to the Browns prevent defense than anything great Ben was doing. He's had way more bad games than good ones this year, and my ill-fated Trent Dilfer comparsion may come to proove true before his career is over.
27. Browns - Charlie Frye
He's been decent at times, but the offensive play-calling was killing him until recently. He has nice weapons with Winslow and Edwards to throw to, but needs to show a bit more consistency and win some games.
28. Cardinals - Matt Leinart
Got off to a nice start, but has mostly struggled since. Has the weapons to be good, they just need an O-line that keeps him off his back. Which might be a few years away yet.
29. Jags - David Garrard
It was thought maybe he was the answer to an ineffective Leftwich, but he hasn't exactly lit it up. I'm not convinced. Although his receivers haven't helped him much by dropping balls.
30. Jags - Byron Leftwich
Comments get shorter as we get towards the end. He's immobile, not accurate, and inconsistent.
31. Chiefs - Damon Huard
Looked decent in a few starts for Green. Looked not-so-decent in the most recent couple.
32. Bucs - Chris Simms
Even before the ruptured spleen, there were some whispers he might be benched.
33. Philly - Jeff Garcia
Probably among the best backups in the league, but that's not saying much. Now he'll get a chance to try and get the Eagles into the playoffs.
34. Dallas - Drew Bledsoe
Borderline starter material at this point. His lack of mobility and tendancy towards big mistakes late in games make him just about done.
35. Skins - Jason Campbell
Don't know a whole lot about him. But if Mark Brunell was a better option for the Skins for the first 10 weeks of the season, that's not saying much.
36. Bucs - Bruce Gradkowski
Has won a few games, but mostly was the defense. He might keep the job over Simms. Big deal.
37. Vikings - Brad Johnson
Actually has a decent offensive line and running game. His receivers drop a lot of balls, but the whole "he knows how to manage games" compliment only gets you so far in this league.
38. Skins - Mark Brunell
Stick a fork in him, he's done. His brief resurgence last year was his last gasp.
39. Cardinals - Kurt Warner
Hasn't been the same since that nasty thumb injury. The dude still has some ability, he just can't hold on to the damn ball. And that's a problem.
40. Miami - Daunte Culpepper
Hasn't been the same since he lost Randy Moss. And now even when his knee is "100%" he might have a tough job winning the starting job back from Harrington.
41. Raiders - Andrew Walter
9 sacks in one game is a rough way to get settled in at the pro level. Still, even with zero pressure on him, I've seen this kid overthrow wide open receivers and bounce balls at people's feet.
42. Raiders - Aaron Brooks
If this guy is still in the league in 3 years as anything more than a clipboard holder, I'll be shocked. Notice how the Saints got rid of him and pretty much instantly won 5 more games? Yes, he's the worst, by far.
On to the rankings...
1. Pats - Tom Brady
The Super Bowl rings do the talking. He misses the WRs he lost a bit this year I think, and he's suffered a bit from bad play-calling (see the losses to the Colts and Jets), but he's still who you'd most want to have at the helm during the playoffs.
2. Colts - Peyton Manning
I don't think this needs much explanation. He has the numbers, but not the Super Bowl rings (or appearances actually).
3. Philly - Donovon McNabb
The Eagles are just a totally different team with him in there. Watch them now fall out of playoff contention with him gone for the year. Arguably the most important player to any team.
4. Saints - Drew Brees
The Saints huge turnaround this season could be largely credited to Brees. He's looked excellent. And to think the Dolphins saved a few bucks and signed Culpepper instead.
5. Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck
I might have considered putting him at #3 had he not missed the past 4 games. He could finish the season anywhere between #3 and #15, depending on how he leads this shaky Seattle team down the stretch.
6. Rams - Marc Bulger
Has single-handedly killed my fantasy team the past two weeks with poor performances. But his accuracy is pretty damn good most of the time, and he makes very few mistakes. (I think he only has 2 picks all season.) Something about the guy is very... dull... though. Seems like he doesn't have much fire in him most of the time and not much of a personality.
7. Bengals - Carson Palmer
Can we really still call him "the best young QB in the league" any more? He's been around long enough. I think the knee injury is still bothering him a little bit, maybe mentally as much as physically. But he's shown some signs of life these past couple weeks.
8. Packers - Brett Favre
Looks like he's having fun again, and the West Coast Offense is starting to click. Well, aside from yesterday against the Patriots.. Since it sounds like he'll be back next week despite banging up his elbow, I won't bother listing Aaron Rodgers anywhere.
9. Chargers - Phillip Rivers
After a conservative start, he's been let loose. And the Chargers may be the team to beat in the AFC now that the Colts have lost. Impressive comeback win in Denver last night. I guess the Chargers' peeps knew what they were doing when they let Brees get away in free agency. This kid is for real.
10. NYG - Eli Manning
Has looked great at times... and awful at others... Seems he may have inherited the Manning gene for choking in big games, so I don't expect him to really rise above #5 or so on this list ever. And he actually seems less charismatic than Peyton, who woulda thunk that possible?
11. Dallas - Tony Romo
A bit early, but I like this guy so far. And as much as I hate Parcells and the Cowboys, I can easily see him leading them to a playoff berth. The Cowboys have a good defense, and he has the weapons on offense to get it done.
12. Texans - David Carr
This is probably slightly too high for him, but the fact is he's playing well right now. Very few mistakes. He's staying upright more than he's used to. And the Texans are competitive just about every week. Andre Johnson is one of the most underrated receivers in the league, and Carr is finding him often.
13. Panthers - Jake Delhomme
He'd probably be like 5 slots lower if he didn't have Steve Smith making ridiculous catches. He is quietly accurate and mistake-free though.
14. Ravens - Steve McNair
I'm not really a big McNair fan, but he is winning games for the Ravens. Even if a few of those wins did require a lucky bounce or two. There's no way the Ravens have as many wins with Kyle Boller as their QB, so that in itself is worth a few jumps up the list.
15. Jets - Chad Pennington
He looks like his shoulder is holding up okay, and his play is a big reason the Jets are alive in the playoff hunt. He had a rough game against the Bears, but most QBs do. And they were in it til the end.
16. Bears - Rex Grossman
Speaking of the Bears, Grossman has stayed healthy for a change and is getting a lot of credit for giving Chicago a decent offense to go with their dominant defense. But really, he's very inconsistent, and can cost the team the game at any point.
17. Broncos - Jake Plummer
Copy and paste time! "But really, he's very inconsistent, and can cost the team the game at any point." Jake the Snake still makes way too many mistakes. Last year was clearly an anomaly. Look for a first round playoff exit with Jake in control.
18. Falcons - Mike Vick
4 weeks ago, he might have cracked the top 10. Now, he's back down here sandwiched between the likes of Jake Plummer and Jon Kitna. I think it's safe to say Vick is never going to "get it" and suddenly become a top 5 QB in this league.
19. Lions - Jon Kitna
He's actually doing fairly well under Mike Martz's offense, though the Lions' record wouldn't tell you that. The problem with Martz's offense is that it goes pass wacky, and defenses adjust. And Jon Kitna-Roy Williams isn't quite Marc Bulger-Tory Holt.
20. Niners - Alex Smith
He's maturing and looks decent and times. But he's not exactly setting the league on fire and you don't hear too many Sportscenter highlights mentioning his name.
21. Miami - Joey Harrington
New life in Miami? Sure, why not. The bottom line is the Dolphins have won a few big games since he has taken over at QB. Really, it's been the defense winning the games. But Harrington hasn't turned around and lost them right back.
22. Bills - J.P. Losman
Not much to say here other than the Bills are just about where we'd expect them to be, and it sounds like Losman has played well enough to quiet any QB controversy between him and that Holcome guy whose first name I can't even remember right now. You know, the former Browns guy...
23. Chiefs - Trent Green
Probably moves up the list quite a bit if he can show he's recovered from that concussion. But it took a last minute touchdown to beat the Raiders yesterday, and really the Chiefs offense revolves around Larry Johnson. It's not like Green is asked to do a lot.
24. Titans - Vince Young
Typical rookie mistakes and struggles, but showing an occasional sign of life here and there. Way too early to give him a fair rating, but right now, he's not winning too many games on his own.
25. Seattle - Seneca Wallace
2-2 as the starter. Loss in KC was acceptable. Win over the Rams was impressive. Loss to the Niners yesterday while throwing 3 picks and making a few other questionable decisions takes him down several notches. With a well-played game yesterday, he goes to 3-1 as starter and sets himself up for a nice free agent contract from a team considering making him their starter. Instead, he played himself back to the bench and an uncertain future.
26. Steelers - Ben Roethlisburger
Decent comeback win yesterday against the Browns. But that was more thanks to the Browns prevent defense than anything great Ben was doing. He's had way more bad games than good ones this year, and my ill-fated Trent Dilfer comparsion may come to proove true before his career is over.
27. Browns - Charlie Frye
He's been decent at times, but the offensive play-calling was killing him until recently. He has nice weapons with Winslow and Edwards to throw to, but needs to show a bit more consistency and win some games.
28. Cardinals - Matt Leinart
Got off to a nice start, but has mostly struggled since. Has the weapons to be good, they just need an O-line that keeps him off his back. Which might be a few years away yet.
29. Jags - David Garrard
It was thought maybe he was the answer to an ineffective Leftwich, but he hasn't exactly lit it up. I'm not convinced. Although his receivers haven't helped him much by dropping balls.
30. Jags - Byron Leftwich
Comments get shorter as we get towards the end. He's immobile, not accurate, and inconsistent.
31. Chiefs - Damon Huard
Looked decent in a few starts for Green. Looked not-so-decent in the most recent couple.
32. Bucs - Chris Simms
Even before the ruptured spleen, there were some whispers he might be benched.
33. Philly - Jeff Garcia
Probably among the best backups in the league, but that's not saying much. Now he'll get a chance to try and get the Eagles into the playoffs.
34. Dallas - Drew Bledsoe
Borderline starter material at this point. His lack of mobility and tendancy towards big mistakes late in games make him just about done.
35. Skins - Jason Campbell
Don't know a whole lot about him. But if Mark Brunell was a better option for the Skins for the first 10 weeks of the season, that's not saying much.
36. Bucs - Bruce Gradkowski
Has won a few games, but mostly was the defense. He might keep the job over Simms. Big deal.
37. Vikings - Brad Johnson
Actually has a decent offensive line and running game. His receivers drop a lot of balls, but the whole "he knows how to manage games" compliment only gets you so far in this league.
38. Skins - Mark Brunell
Stick a fork in him, he's done. His brief resurgence last year was his last gasp.
39. Cardinals - Kurt Warner
Hasn't been the same since that nasty thumb injury. The dude still has some ability, he just can't hold on to the damn ball. And that's a problem.
40. Miami - Daunte Culpepper
Hasn't been the same since he lost Randy Moss. And now even when his knee is "100%" he might have a tough job winning the starting job back from Harrington.
41. Raiders - Andrew Walter
9 sacks in one game is a rough way to get settled in at the pro level. Still, even with zero pressure on him, I've seen this kid overthrow wide open receivers and bounce balls at people's feet.
42. Raiders - Aaron Brooks
If this guy is still in the league in 3 years as anything more than a clipboard holder, I'll be shocked. Notice how the Saints got rid of him and pretty much instantly won 5 more games? Yes, he's the worst, by far.
Thursday, January 4, 2007
Playoff Picks! (Wildcard Round! We're back!)
It's playoff time, woohoo!
So since Seattle has made the playoffs (despite going 1-3 to finish the season, including losses to SF and Arizona, and that heartbreaker to the Chargers), I figure I can bounce back a bit and resume with the picks. I'll start off by saying I'm happy Seattle made the playoffs. They're one of only 3 teams to make the playoffs the past 4 seasons. (New England and Indy being the other two). That's a pretty nice accomplishment in this era of NFL parity. So I'm happy about that at least.
Before I continue to ramble on about Seattle, let's check out the final regular season results...
Samichlaus: 77-83 (.481)
St. Ides: 82-96 (.461)
So Samichlaus came out on top by a few percentage points! Or, if you use the ol' "games back" system, he had a 6-game lead. Congrats!
Anyways, on to the picks!
Chiefs +7.5 over COLTS
Yes, folks, it's that time of year! Time for the annual "Manning choke-job!" And, for the second straight year, we get two for the price of one, as both Manning brothers made the playoffs! Oh happy days!
Since there are only four games, I can actually make use of multiple paragraphs in each game breakdown without confusing the reader. Another reason to celebrate!
Anyways, the Chiefs basically lucked in to the playoffs when the Broncos choked at home against the Niners. Their offense is a great matchup for the Indy defense - a power running game. Larry Johnson should have no problem finding holes and bowling over undersized defenders. Which should allow them to eat clock and keep Peyton off the field. If they get LJ like 30+ carries, he ought to go over 150 yards (maybe closer to 200), and KC should have the ball close to 40 minutes of the game. That's the formula for beating Indy (just ask the Texans).
Luckily for Indy, the Chiefs defense isn't very good. Ty Law gets allll my love, but he's getting old and probably can't keep up with Harrison or Wayne. Still, if Peyton falls behind and gets a little pressure, he starts to get happy feet and be a bit inaccurate.
I think the Colts will win, but it'll be close. Closer than a touchdown.
And, to steal a Sports Guy gimmick from his "Beat the Sports Guy" Monday Night Football thingy, here's my "Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction" for each game: Ty Law intercepts a Peyton Manning pass, and gets all fancy dipsy doodling trying to make a big runback. Reggie Wayne catches him from behind, strips the ball, and recovers it. The Colts go on to score a TD on the drive, which goes on to provide the final margin of victory.
Colts 24, Chiefs 20
COWBOYS +3.5 over Seahawks
Reverse jinx baby! The reverse jinx luck abandoned me at times this season, but I can't give up on it now. The line actually seems a little low for a Dallas team that has looked horrible the past few weeks, and basically gave away an NFC East title they looked to have wrapped up when they beat the Giants 5 weeks ago. Seattle hasn't looked great either, but keep in mind they've had a ton of injuries and the offense has been a little out of synch. Just two weeks ago, they were one late-game blown coverage away from beating the Chargers, a team most people consider the best in the whole NFL. They made Philip Rivers look like the first-year starter he is. I'm hoping they can do the same to Tony Romo.
Speaking of Romo, how the hell did this guy make the Pro Bowl? He's started something like 9 games (and the Pro Bowl results were announced before Week 16, so he only had 7 starts at the time). He's been awful in his last 4. Are the rest of the NFC QBs that bad? Does his banging of Jessica Simpson and Carrie Underwood get him some bonus points or something? Oh, and here's another scoop I read somewhere - Saints head coach Sean Peyton was Romo's previous offensive coordinator. Peyton understands Romo's strengths... and weaknesses. The Saints took advantage of this when they thrashed the Cowboys a few weeks ago. And all subsequent teams have studied that tape, and done the same thing. And all subsequent teams have made him look pretty horrible, and have beaten the Cowboys. If this is true, (and I have no reason to believe it's not,) I suspect Holmgren and his crew should be able to do the same thing.
So, take a first-year starting QB, shake his confidence a bit with several poor games in a row, leak a rumor that teams have "figured out" his weaknesses, put the pressure of playoff football on his shoulders, and toss him into one of the loudest and most hostile environments in the NFL, and you have the makings of what should be an absolutely horrendous performance.
(About that homefield advantage... Seattle was a somewhat disappointing 5-3 this year at home. After going 8-0 last year. But looking more closely at those losses, they were all close: Loss to Minnesota when Hasselbeck had his knee rolled over in the 3rd quarter. The game was tied at the time. Seneca Wallace came in and couldn't get it going. Loss to San Francisco on Thursday night in an absolute monsoon. They shut down the Niners offense for 3 quarters, and the defense finally wore down since the offense couldn't sustain any drives. And two weeks ago against the Chargers, who they held in check the whole game. It took a last second 30-yard bomb against blown coverage for them to lose that game. That one hurt.)
That said, the Seattle secondary is decimated. Both starters (Marcus Trufant and Kelly Herndon) are out. Our 4th string CB (Jimmy Williams) is also out. That leaves the starters as a rookie - Kelly Jennings, first round pick, who HAS looked good at times - and a converted safety - Jordan Babinauex, who started several games at safety because of Michael Boulware's coverage problems. Yes, the same Michael Boulware who blew the coverage on the winning TD pass by the Chargers with 30 seconds left. Boulware is considered much better at run support, so he was put back in the starting lineup to help shut down Tomlinson, which he did a good job of. Sadly, his suckage at coverage came back to bite them. Our nickel corner will likely be a guy who wasn't on the team 3 weeks ago. Unless they try and get fancy and line up Julian Peterson to cover a WR. He did it in San Fran on occasion, but as athletic as he is, I'm not too comfortable with it.
I'm focusing a bit much on the Dallas offense vs. Seattle defense part of the game a bit much because that's what it will come down to. There's no reason the Seattle offense should have any problem scoring on the Dallas defense. On one condition - they block DeMarcus Ware. That's all they have to do. Remember, the Lions put up 30+ points on the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Alexander should be able to run for 100+ yards pretty easily. As long as someone blocks Ware, Hasselbeck will have time. And I'm expecting a big game from Deion Branch. Darrell Jackson is banged up and may not play. Recent breakout D.J. Hackett is also dinger up. We gave up a first round pick for Branch. Time for him to polish off his Super Bowl MVP trophy, give it a kiss for good luck, and show us what he's made of.
So back to the Seattle defense. They were good early in the year at getting to the QB, but have slowed down lately. They need to pick that up again. And the Dallas offensive line isn't that good, so they should be able to get pressure with just four rushing. I don't see them blitzing a ton, since their secondary will need all the help they can get. But when they do blitz, they MUST get to Romo.
Last thing worth noting - during the regular season, Seattle doesn't get too fancy on defense. They play a pretty simple scheme, and don't blitz a ton. They did the same thing last year during the regular season. However, you may recall that during the playoffs, they made some key defensive adjustments. They took away the Redskins running game and forced Marc Brunell to beat them. (He could not.) They put 5 guys covering Steve Smith, and forced the rest of the Panthers to beat them. (They could not.) They took away the Steelers running game (for the most part), and forced Big Ben to beat them. (His stats in the Super Bowl were awful. Randel El threw the TD pass to Hines Ward, and Willie Parker busted off that one big run.) My point is that their coaches are smart. They know what to do to win, and they make big adjustments in the playoffs. The Seattle gameplan? Stop the run (not too hard against Dallas, the front 7 should be able to handle it), force Romo to beat them, and take advantage of knowing his weaknesses. The blueprint for beating them is there, they just have to excute.
So, although Seattle SHOULD win this game, I don't have a lot of confidence. They're turned the ball over WAY too much this season, and have given up WAY too many big plays. And as I've been thinking to myself the past few days, "You know, if they lose this, their Super Bowl window could be closing," I think I've convinced myself otherwise. Hasselbeck is 31, but that's not old for QBs really. This is only his 5th year as a full-time starter. Alexander is 29, and with the foot injury this year, he didn't put on a lot of mileage. He's got a few good years left in him. Walter Jones is getting up there at 32, but lineman can usually stick around til their mid-to-late 30s, and he's got a few years left on his contract. The defense is very young. Aside from Engram (who hasn't played much this year anyways), the WRs are pretty young. As long as they draft well (and they have since Holmgren got here for the most part), this team should remain competitive for a few more years.
Anyways, I babbled way too long on this one. I think Seattle should win, but I don't have the confidence in them to expect an easy win. Josh Brown last second field goal does it.
Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: Nate Burleson will have a key play returning punts. Since he was put back there, he's been an adventure. Sometimes trying to grab bouncing balls he shouldn't, sometimes busting out big returns (including a key TD return against the Rams, and another against the Chargers that was called back on a phantom holding call). He'll either fumble or take one to the house. I'm hoping it's the latter.
Seahawks 30, Cowboys 27.
PATRIOTS -8.5 over Jets
I know Anonymous is probably hoping for as detailed a breakdown of this one as the Seattle game, but I don't watch the Jets or Pats much. :P I will tell you this - no way Belichek lets Mangini (and the Jets) win twice in Foxboro in the same season. No way.
The Jets are basically winning with two things - solid defense and Pennington not losing the game. They got a lot of pressure on Brady when they beat the Pats. Something I'm sure they will adjust for this time. I'd be surprised if they can generate that much pressure again. And a few successful draws and play actions should be enough to slow the pass rush a bit.
The Pats are without Rodney Harrison, which hurts. But I still expect that defense to force Pennington into mistakes he's mostly avoided this season. I've read more than one writer say things about the Patriots (and Broncos actually) that they will often seem to only play up or down to the competition during the regular season because they don't want to give away too much. I think there's probably a little bit of truth to that. You can count on the Pats D showing the Jets some formations, looks, and blitzes they haven't seen from them before. That's their specialty really. Cooking up defensive schemes to confuse the other team.
I don't have a whole lot more to say about this game, so I'll sum it up with some key points:
* The Jets running game is not good enough to win the game on its own.
* Pennington is not good enough to win the game on his own.
* Brady just wins playoff games.
* Belichek just wins playoff games.
* The game is at Foxboro.
The spread seems just a little high, but I really think the Jets offense could be completely shut down.
Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: After giving way to Laurence Maroney most of the game, Corey Dilon busts out for a 36-yard TD run midway through the 4th quarter while the Patriots are mostly grinding out the clock. The score puts the game away.
Patriots 20, Jets 7.
Giants +7.5 over EAGLES
Last night I had the NFL Network on and was watching their daily show called "Total Access". They showed a press conference with Jeff Garcia. My wife was in the room, so I said to her, "Hey, do you think this guy looks gay?" She actually has pretty good gaydar, and can spot them a mile away. So I'm interested in her answer. The conversation follows:
Me: "Hey, do you think this guy looks gay?"
Her: "Huh? Why?"
Me: "Does he look gay to you?"
Her: "Why would you say that? Who is he?"
Me: "He's a football player. Just answer the question please."
Her: "Why are you making assumptions like that? Why the heck would you think he's gay?"
(Note: At this time, she still hasn't actually looked at the TV.)
Me: "I'm not making the assumption, there are rumors!"
Her: "Who's starting these rumors? Why?"
Me: "I don't know!! The press, his teammates! There is SOME speculation he's gay. I'm not the one who's first saying this!"
Her: "Oh." (And, finally actually looking at the TV.) "Yeah, he's gay."
That said, Garcia has played lights out down the stretch. He's looked awesome. The Giants are without Strahan, so that'll hurt their ability to put pressure on. Eli Manning has looked brutal lately. (It's a toss-up between him and Romo for the "Worst Looking QB Going Into The Playoffs" award.) Brian Westbrook is a threat all over the field. The Philly defense has a bit of its swagger back like they did previous years.
This is actually probably the toughest game to call I think. On one hand, if Garcia is THAT good, how come he's been regulated to backup duty on crappy teams since his departure from San Fran? On the other hand, I have real trouble envisioning Eli playing a good game under such pressure. Tiki is going to have to win this game for the Giants, like he did last week. And the Eagles probably know it.
I really want to pick the Giants as my "St. Ides Shocker of the Week", but I just can't get myself to do it. It could be a tough weekend in the Manning household.
Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: Before the first half, the Giants line up for a 41-yard field goal. Jusssst before the snap, the Eagles call a timeout, but the ball is snapped and kicked. Giants kicker Jay Feely misses it, badly. However, the play didn't count. After the timeout, he tries again and nails it. That field goal is the difference that causes the Eagles to not cover.
Eagles 23, Giants 17.
So since Seattle has made the playoffs (despite going 1-3 to finish the season, including losses to SF and Arizona, and that heartbreaker to the Chargers), I figure I can bounce back a bit and resume with the picks. I'll start off by saying I'm happy Seattle made the playoffs. They're one of only 3 teams to make the playoffs the past 4 seasons. (New England and Indy being the other two). That's a pretty nice accomplishment in this era of NFL parity. So I'm happy about that at least.
Before I continue to ramble on about Seattle, let's check out the final regular season results...
Samichlaus: 77-83 (.481)
St. Ides: 82-96 (.461)
So Samichlaus came out on top by a few percentage points! Or, if you use the ol' "games back" system, he had a 6-game lead. Congrats!
Anyways, on to the picks!
Chiefs +7.5 over COLTS
Yes, folks, it's that time of year! Time for the annual "Manning choke-job!" And, for the second straight year, we get two for the price of one, as both Manning brothers made the playoffs! Oh happy days!
Since there are only four games, I can actually make use of multiple paragraphs in each game breakdown without confusing the reader. Another reason to celebrate!
Anyways, the Chiefs basically lucked in to the playoffs when the Broncos choked at home against the Niners. Their offense is a great matchup for the Indy defense - a power running game. Larry Johnson should have no problem finding holes and bowling over undersized defenders. Which should allow them to eat clock and keep Peyton off the field. If they get LJ like 30+ carries, he ought to go over 150 yards (maybe closer to 200), and KC should have the ball close to 40 minutes of the game. That's the formula for beating Indy (just ask the Texans).
Luckily for Indy, the Chiefs defense isn't very good. Ty Law gets allll my love, but he's getting old and probably can't keep up with Harrison or Wayne. Still, if Peyton falls behind and gets a little pressure, he starts to get happy feet and be a bit inaccurate.
I think the Colts will win, but it'll be close. Closer than a touchdown.
And, to steal a Sports Guy gimmick from his "Beat the Sports Guy" Monday Night Football thingy, here's my "Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction" for each game: Ty Law intercepts a Peyton Manning pass, and gets all fancy dipsy doodling trying to make a big runback. Reggie Wayne catches him from behind, strips the ball, and recovers it. The Colts go on to score a TD on the drive, which goes on to provide the final margin of victory.
Colts 24, Chiefs 20
COWBOYS +3.5 over Seahawks
Reverse jinx baby! The reverse jinx luck abandoned me at times this season, but I can't give up on it now. The line actually seems a little low for a Dallas team that has looked horrible the past few weeks, and basically gave away an NFC East title they looked to have wrapped up when they beat the Giants 5 weeks ago. Seattle hasn't looked great either, but keep in mind they've had a ton of injuries and the offense has been a little out of synch. Just two weeks ago, they were one late-game blown coverage away from beating the Chargers, a team most people consider the best in the whole NFL. They made Philip Rivers look like the first-year starter he is. I'm hoping they can do the same to Tony Romo.
Speaking of Romo, how the hell did this guy make the Pro Bowl? He's started something like 9 games (and the Pro Bowl results were announced before Week 16, so he only had 7 starts at the time). He's been awful in his last 4. Are the rest of the NFC QBs that bad? Does his banging of Jessica Simpson and Carrie Underwood get him some bonus points or something? Oh, and here's another scoop I read somewhere - Saints head coach Sean Peyton was Romo's previous offensive coordinator. Peyton understands Romo's strengths... and weaknesses. The Saints took advantage of this when they thrashed the Cowboys a few weeks ago. And all subsequent teams have studied that tape, and done the same thing. And all subsequent teams have made him look pretty horrible, and have beaten the Cowboys. If this is true, (and I have no reason to believe it's not,) I suspect Holmgren and his crew should be able to do the same thing.
So, take a first-year starting QB, shake his confidence a bit with several poor games in a row, leak a rumor that teams have "figured out" his weaknesses, put the pressure of playoff football on his shoulders, and toss him into one of the loudest and most hostile environments in the NFL, and you have the makings of what should be an absolutely horrendous performance.
(About that homefield advantage... Seattle was a somewhat disappointing 5-3 this year at home. After going 8-0 last year. But looking more closely at those losses, they were all close: Loss to Minnesota when Hasselbeck had his knee rolled over in the 3rd quarter. The game was tied at the time. Seneca Wallace came in and couldn't get it going. Loss to San Francisco on Thursday night in an absolute monsoon. They shut down the Niners offense for 3 quarters, and the defense finally wore down since the offense couldn't sustain any drives. And two weeks ago against the Chargers, who they held in check the whole game. It took a last second 30-yard bomb against blown coverage for them to lose that game. That one hurt.)
That said, the Seattle secondary is decimated. Both starters (Marcus Trufant and Kelly Herndon) are out. Our 4th string CB (Jimmy Williams) is also out. That leaves the starters as a rookie - Kelly Jennings, first round pick, who HAS looked good at times - and a converted safety - Jordan Babinauex, who started several games at safety because of Michael Boulware's coverage problems. Yes, the same Michael Boulware who blew the coverage on the winning TD pass by the Chargers with 30 seconds left. Boulware is considered much better at run support, so he was put back in the starting lineup to help shut down Tomlinson, which he did a good job of. Sadly, his suckage at coverage came back to bite them. Our nickel corner will likely be a guy who wasn't on the team 3 weeks ago. Unless they try and get fancy and line up Julian Peterson to cover a WR. He did it in San Fran on occasion, but as athletic as he is, I'm not too comfortable with it.
I'm focusing a bit much on the Dallas offense vs. Seattle defense part of the game a bit much because that's what it will come down to. There's no reason the Seattle offense should have any problem scoring on the Dallas defense. On one condition - they block DeMarcus Ware. That's all they have to do. Remember, the Lions put up 30+ points on the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Alexander should be able to run for 100+ yards pretty easily. As long as someone blocks Ware, Hasselbeck will have time. And I'm expecting a big game from Deion Branch. Darrell Jackson is banged up and may not play. Recent breakout D.J. Hackett is also dinger up. We gave up a first round pick for Branch. Time for him to polish off his Super Bowl MVP trophy, give it a kiss for good luck, and show us what he's made of.
So back to the Seattle defense. They were good early in the year at getting to the QB, but have slowed down lately. They need to pick that up again. And the Dallas offensive line isn't that good, so they should be able to get pressure with just four rushing. I don't see them blitzing a ton, since their secondary will need all the help they can get. But when they do blitz, they MUST get to Romo.
Last thing worth noting - during the regular season, Seattle doesn't get too fancy on defense. They play a pretty simple scheme, and don't blitz a ton. They did the same thing last year during the regular season. However, you may recall that during the playoffs, they made some key defensive adjustments. They took away the Redskins running game and forced Marc Brunell to beat them. (He could not.) They put 5 guys covering Steve Smith, and forced the rest of the Panthers to beat them. (They could not.) They took away the Steelers running game (for the most part), and forced Big Ben to beat them. (His stats in the Super Bowl were awful. Randel El threw the TD pass to Hines Ward, and Willie Parker busted off that one big run.) My point is that their coaches are smart. They know what to do to win, and they make big adjustments in the playoffs. The Seattle gameplan? Stop the run (not too hard against Dallas, the front 7 should be able to handle it), force Romo to beat them, and take advantage of knowing his weaknesses. The blueprint for beating them is there, they just have to excute.
So, although Seattle SHOULD win this game, I don't have a lot of confidence. They're turned the ball over WAY too much this season, and have given up WAY too many big plays. And as I've been thinking to myself the past few days, "You know, if they lose this, their Super Bowl window could be closing," I think I've convinced myself otherwise. Hasselbeck is 31, but that's not old for QBs really. This is only his 5th year as a full-time starter. Alexander is 29, and with the foot injury this year, he didn't put on a lot of mileage. He's got a few good years left in him. Walter Jones is getting up there at 32, but lineman can usually stick around til their mid-to-late 30s, and he's got a few years left on his contract. The defense is very young. Aside from Engram (who hasn't played much this year anyways), the WRs are pretty young. As long as they draft well (and they have since Holmgren got here for the most part), this team should remain competitive for a few more years.
Anyways, I babbled way too long on this one. I think Seattle should win, but I don't have the confidence in them to expect an easy win. Josh Brown last second field goal does it.
Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: Nate Burleson will have a key play returning punts. Since he was put back there, he's been an adventure. Sometimes trying to grab bouncing balls he shouldn't, sometimes busting out big returns (including a key TD return against the Rams, and another against the Chargers that was called back on a phantom holding call). He'll either fumble or take one to the house. I'm hoping it's the latter.
Seahawks 30, Cowboys 27.
PATRIOTS -8.5 over Jets
I know Anonymous is probably hoping for as detailed a breakdown of this one as the Seattle game, but I don't watch the Jets or Pats much. :P I will tell you this - no way Belichek lets Mangini (and the Jets) win twice in Foxboro in the same season. No way.
The Jets are basically winning with two things - solid defense and Pennington not losing the game. They got a lot of pressure on Brady when they beat the Pats. Something I'm sure they will adjust for this time. I'd be surprised if they can generate that much pressure again. And a few successful draws and play actions should be enough to slow the pass rush a bit.
The Pats are without Rodney Harrison, which hurts. But I still expect that defense to force Pennington into mistakes he's mostly avoided this season. I've read more than one writer say things about the Patriots (and Broncos actually) that they will often seem to only play up or down to the competition during the regular season because they don't want to give away too much. I think there's probably a little bit of truth to that. You can count on the Pats D showing the Jets some formations, looks, and blitzes they haven't seen from them before. That's their specialty really. Cooking up defensive schemes to confuse the other team.
I don't have a whole lot more to say about this game, so I'll sum it up with some key points:
* The Jets running game is not good enough to win the game on its own.
* Pennington is not good enough to win the game on his own.
* Brady just wins playoff games.
* Belichek just wins playoff games.
* The game is at Foxboro.
The spread seems just a little high, but I really think the Jets offense could be completely shut down.
Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: After giving way to Laurence Maroney most of the game, Corey Dilon busts out for a 36-yard TD run midway through the 4th quarter while the Patriots are mostly grinding out the clock. The score puts the game away.
Patriots 20, Jets 7.
Giants +7.5 over EAGLES
Last night I had the NFL Network on and was watching their daily show called "Total Access". They showed a press conference with Jeff Garcia. My wife was in the room, so I said to her, "Hey, do you think this guy looks gay?" She actually has pretty good gaydar, and can spot them a mile away. So I'm interested in her answer. The conversation follows:
Me: "Hey, do you think this guy looks gay?"
Her: "Huh? Why?"
Me: "Does he look gay to you?"
Her: "Why would you say that? Who is he?"
Me: "He's a football player. Just answer the question please."
Her: "Why are you making assumptions like that? Why the heck would you think he's gay?"
(Note: At this time, she still hasn't actually looked at the TV.)
Me: "I'm not making the assumption, there are rumors!"
Her: "Who's starting these rumors? Why?"
Me: "I don't know!! The press, his teammates! There is SOME speculation he's gay. I'm not the one who's first saying this!"
Her: "Oh." (And, finally actually looking at the TV.) "Yeah, he's gay."
That said, Garcia has played lights out down the stretch. He's looked awesome. The Giants are without Strahan, so that'll hurt their ability to put pressure on. Eli Manning has looked brutal lately. (It's a toss-up between him and Romo for the "Worst Looking QB Going Into The Playoffs" award.) Brian Westbrook is a threat all over the field. The Philly defense has a bit of its swagger back like they did previous years.
This is actually probably the toughest game to call I think. On one hand, if Garcia is THAT good, how come he's been regulated to backup duty on crappy teams since his departure from San Fran? On the other hand, I have real trouble envisioning Eli playing a good game under such pressure. Tiki is going to have to win this game for the Giants, like he did last week. And the Eagles probably know it.
I really want to pick the Giants as my "St. Ides Shocker of the Week", but I just can't get myself to do it. It could be a tough weekend in the Manning household.
Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: Before the first half, the Giants line up for a 41-yard field goal. Jusssst before the snap, the Eagles call a timeout, but the ball is snapped and kicked. Giants kicker Jay Feely misses it, badly. However, the play didn't count. After the timeout, he tries again and nails it. That field goal is the difference that causes the Eagles to not cover.
Eagles 23, Giants 17.
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