Conference Title Games Picks!

Well, we're getting down to the end here folks. I'll spare you my lamenting the Seahawks loss last week (a game they were one play away from winning.. and they had like 6 chances to make that one play...), and just get to the picks.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2

Saints +2.5 over BEARS
Rex Grossman and the Bears barely beat a beat up Seahawks team last week. It took two long pass plays against a depleted secondary and a long field goal to pull out the win. Shaun Alexander repeatedly gouged the defense for 10 yards a pop. Receivers sat down in the holes in the zone and Hasselbeck easily found them. Thomas Jones didn't really do much against a suspect run defense. And I even saw Urlacher miss at least two tackles.

To put it simply, the Bears are overrated. Way overrated. Keep in mind their 13-3 record includes 2 wins over the hapless Lions and Vikings, wins over the Cardinals (a game they should have lost... "They are what we thought they were!"), Niners, and Bucs (in OT). When Seattle made the playoffs, people pointed out they only beat one team with a winning record all season - the Broncos, IN Denver (though they also beat a playoff team in the 8-8 Giants.) Guess what. The Bears only beat two teams over .500 - the Seahawks and Jets. Why is nobody talking about the Bears weak schedule? Because they're the effin Bears, and that gives them some sort of "history" or "aura" or something. Give me a break.

Meanwhile, the Saints are experiencing a turnaround unlike anything in recent memory. Without talking to much about the overdone Katrina disaster, a year ago this was a losing team, an annually disappointing and underachieving franchise, with no home stadium and an owner that wanted to move them out of town. Enter Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Sean Payton. What a difference, huh? For comparison sake (and what the hell, I'll do this for all 4 teams), the Saints also beat two winning teams - the Eagles and Cowboys. But their division was much more competitive, with the Panthers and Falcons both having impressive stretches during the season where they looked like playoff teams (though neither finished above .500).

I said I wasn't going to talk about the whole Katrina thing too much, but just one more point about it - the Saints are this year's "feel good story" in the NFL. Much like Bettis was last year, with his pending retirement and the Super Bowl in his home town. I'm still not totally convinced that there wasn't a conspiracy to give the Super Bowl to the Steelers. And if I'm not totally convinced about that, then I'm surely not convinced the NFL won't do the same thing for the Saints this year. If we start seeing some questionable calls going their way, look for the theorists to start putting together their theories.

In any case, conspiracy or not, the Saints will be in the Super Bowl. If Alexander and an unhealthy Hasselbeck (who we now found out had multiple broken fingers on his left hand and will be having surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder) can do that kind of damage to the Bears, imagine what Brees, Bush, Colston, McAllister, and company will do. Rex Grossman had two pretty big mistakes last week (a fumble inside their own 20 that led to a TD, and an interception in the red zone that took points off the board), but nobody is talking about them because he got away with them, and hit those wide open receivers with a couple bombs. They'll be talking about them this week, and his future will officially be in doubt going into next season.

Saints 27, Bears 24.

Patriots +3.5 over COLTS
Before I forget, the Colts beat 4 teams with winning records - Jets, Pats, Eagles, and Broncos. The Patriots beat 2 - the Jets and the Bears.

Maybe I'm crazy for picking both road teams to win outright, but how can I pick against the Pats? Sooooo many crazy subplots in this game:

Brady vs. Manning
Patriots vs. Colts
Belichick's Excellent Playoff Record vs. Dungy's Crappy Playoff Record
Adam Vinatieri vs. His Old Team
Will Manning Choke Again?
The Colts D That Struggled All Season Suddenly Looks Decent - Can It Continue?
Neither Brady Or Manning Has Played Well In The Playoffs So Far - Yet They've Won
Will Belichick Continue To Dress Worse Than A Homeless Crackhead?
Can I Keep Capitalizing Each Word In A Sentence Fragment Forever?

Here's the thing: The Patriots really should have lost last week. Brady didn't play well. The defense couldn't stop Tomlinson. Brady threw a key interception late in the game. The team was far from perfect.

Yet, they had a few major things go right: Schottenheimer punted on a 4th down he should have gone for it. On the key Brady interception, the defender did a bit too much dipsy doodling, and was stripped of the ball. The Patriots recovered. Then Schottenheimer challenged the play, though it was very very clear it was a fumble. Which means he basically wasted a timeout. That timeout could have bought him another play at the end of the game, which could have gotten them closer for the tying kick. And the 54-yard kick with time expiring missed. Badly.

Basically, if that's any other coach on the other sideline, the Patriots lose. But hey, that's why they're the damn Patriots. And as much as I liek Brady (Michigan alums get alllll my love), I'm starting to get sick of them. They get way too many breaks. Belichick's ego is approaching Brian Billick proportions. When was the last time a call went against the Patriots? Oh, okay, last year's playoffs against Denver, they had a bad call go against them. And before that? Can't think of one, can you? Bastards.

So that's the logic a lot of people are using this week in picking the Colts - the Patriots have been good, but they've also been lucky. You don't win that many games without a little bit of luck. Admit it, dammit. They've had some luck along the way. And the luck has to run out eventually, right? The Football Gods have to turn things around and balance out the Football Karma at some point, no? Belichick's contract with the Devil needs to expire at some point, doesn't it?

I can't really argue with that logic, and I'm very tempted to take the Colts to win on a Vinatieri field goal as time expires, the perfect irony for the Colts and Manning to finally slay their arch nemesis using the hero the Patriots discarded. It seems like the ideal way for the Patriots dynasty to crumble. One for the ages.

But I just can't trust Manning in the playoffs. Cannot do it. Will not do it. He panics. He feels the pressure. He gets happy feet. He's not as confident or accurate. And once Manning starts to struggle, everybody in the building (including his teammates) will think "Here we go again" and it'll be all over for the Colts.

Before I get back into the whole mental game and auras and luck and whatnot, a few words on the actual game itself. The Colts defense has played well in the playoffs. Against the Chiefs, Herm Edwards proved that he's the bad coach I always said he was by not adjusting the gameplan to take advantage of the Colts playing 10 men in the box to stop Larry Johnson. Against the Ravens, Steve McNair basically played horribly. They're playing better, but I have no doubt the Patriots will make them revert to their porous pre-playoffs form. Brady hasn't played great, but he's played good enough to win. How often does Brady have consecutive bad games? Like never. He'll be near perfect this game.

Meanwhile, Manning has been pretty bad in the playoffs. Usually when he has a bad game in the playoffs, his team has lost. Not so this year. Until this week. The Patriots are known for cooking up defensive schemes to confuse the opposing QB, and it works just about every week. The Pats have Manning's number. All his audibles and justiculating don't effect them. They stick with the gameplan, execute, and more often than not, the Colts lose the game.

Now, it might not be fair to compare Manning with Rex Grossman, but follow me here for a moment. Grossman has been up and down all season, struggling mightily at times, mostly down the stretch. There were a lot of questions marks surrounding him going into last week's game. It's obvious once he makes a mistake, he gets rattled, and plays worse. During the Bears first drive of the game, on 3rd and long, Grossman threw the ball down the middle of the field to a tightly covered Bernard Berrian. Jordan Babinauex (aka, the hero from the Dallas game for his shoestring tackle on Romo after the bobbled snap) was in perfect position for the interception. An interception here gives Grossman that early big mistake, and ptus that same "Uh oh, here we go again" thought into his head, his coach's head, his teammates' heads, and the crowd's heads. Instead, the ball glanced through Babineuax's hands, slightly deflected, bounced off Berrian's chest, bounced off Babineaux's arm, and Berrian caught it for a 30 yard gain. Un-frickin-believable. I'm convinced if he picks that ball off, Grossman falls to pieces and Seattle wins easily.

Manning in the playoffs is in the same fragile mental situation as Grossman. And do yo think a similar pass will go through the hands of Asante Samuel? Nope, not for the Patriots. Things go there way. Good coaching and good players is a big part of it, but there's that winning tradition that makes them make plays. The Bears kicked nailed the 49-yarder to beat the Seahawks. The Chargers kicker missed his kick to send it to OT. These things happen to the Patriots. And until the karma swings in the other direction and I see with my own two eyes it go the other way, I'm not betting against them. But the little bit of luck does have to run out sometime. I think.

Patriots 24, Colts 18.