Playoff Picks! (Wildcard Round! We're back!)

It's playoff time, woohoo!

So since Seattle has made the playoffs (despite going 1-3 to finish the season, including losses to SF and Arizona, and that heartbreaker to the Chargers), I figure I can bounce back a bit and resume with the picks. I'll start off by saying I'm happy Seattle made the playoffs. They're one of only 3 teams to make the playoffs the past 4 seasons. (New England and Indy being the other two). That's a pretty nice accomplishment in this era of NFL parity. So I'm happy about that at least.

Before I continue to ramble on about Seattle, let's check out the final regular season results...

Samichlaus: 77-83 (.481)
St. Ides: 82-96 (.461)

So Samichlaus came out on top by a few percentage points! Or, if you use the ol' "games back" system, he had a 6-game lead. Congrats!

Anyways, on to the picks!

Chiefs +7.5 over COLTS
Yes, folks, it's that time of year! Time for the annual "Manning choke-job!" And, for the second straight year, we get two for the price of one, as both Manning brothers made the playoffs! Oh happy days!

Since there are only four games, I can actually make use of multiple paragraphs in each game breakdown without confusing the reader. Another reason to celebrate!

Anyways, the Chiefs basically lucked in to the playoffs when the Broncos choked at home against the Niners. Their offense is a great matchup for the Indy defense - a power running game. Larry Johnson should have no problem finding holes and bowling over undersized defenders. Which should allow them to eat clock and keep Peyton off the field. If they get LJ like 30+ carries, he ought to go over 150 yards (maybe closer to 200), and KC should have the ball close to 40 minutes of the game. That's the formula for beating Indy (just ask the Texans).

Luckily for Indy, the Chiefs defense isn't very good. Ty Law gets allll my love, but he's getting old and probably can't keep up with Harrison or Wayne. Still, if Peyton falls behind and gets a little pressure, he starts to get happy feet and be a bit inaccurate.

I think the Colts will win, but it'll be close. Closer than a touchdown.

And, to steal a Sports Guy gimmick from his "Beat the Sports Guy" Monday Night Football thingy, here's my "Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction" for each game: Ty Law intercepts a Peyton Manning pass, and gets all fancy dipsy doodling trying to make a big runback. Reggie Wayne catches him from behind, strips the ball, and recovers it. The Colts go on to score a TD on the drive, which goes on to provide the final margin of victory.

Colts 24, Chiefs 20

COWBOYS +3.5 over Seahawks
Reverse jinx baby! The reverse jinx luck abandoned me at times this season, but I can't give up on it now. The line actually seems a little low for a Dallas team that has looked horrible the past few weeks, and basically gave away an NFC East title they looked to have wrapped up when they beat the Giants 5 weeks ago. Seattle hasn't looked great either, but keep in mind they've had a ton of injuries and the offense has been a little out of synch. Just two weeks ago, they were one late-game blown coverage away from beating the Chargers, a team most people consider the best in the whole NFL. They made Philip Rivers look like the first-year starter he is. I'm hoping they can do the same to Tony Romo.

Speaking of Romo, how the hell did this guy make the Pro Bowl? He's started something like 9 games (and the Pro Bowl results were announced before Week 16, so he only had 7 starts at the time). He's been awful in his last 4. Are the rest of the NFC QBs that bad? Does his banging of Jessica Simpson and Carrie Underwood get him some bonus points or something? Oh, and here's another scoop I read somewhere - Saints head coach Sean Peyton was Romo's previous offensive coordinator. Peyton understands Romo's strengths... and weaknesses. The Saints took advantage of this when they thrashed the Cowboys a few weeks ago. And all subsequent teams have studied that tape, and done the same thing. And all subsequent teams have made him look pretty horrible, and have beaten the Cowboys. If this is true, (and I have no reason to believe it's not,) I suspect Holmgren and his crew should be able to do the same thing.

So, take a first-year starting QB, shake his confidence a bit with several poor games in a row, leak a rumor that teams have "figured out" his weaknesses, put the pressure of playoff football on his shoulders, and toss him into one of the loudest and most hostile environments in the NFL, and you have the makings of what should be an absolutely horrendous performance.

(About that homefield advantage... Seattle was a somewhat disappointing 5-3 this year at home. After going 8-0 last year. But looking more closely at those losses, they were all close: Loss to Minnesota when Hasselbeck had his knee rolled over in the 3rd quarter. The game was tied at the time. Seneca Wallace came in and couldn't get it going. Loss to San Francisco on Thursday night in an absolute monsoon. They shut down the Niners offense for 3 quarters, and the defense finally wore down since the offense couldn't sustain any drives. And two weeks ago against the Chargers, who they held in check the whole game. It took a last second 30-yard bomb against blown coverage for them to lose that game. That one hurt.)

That said, the Seattle secondary is decimated. Both starters (Marcus Trufant and Kelly Herndon) are out. Our 4th string CB (Jimmy Williams) is also out. That leaves the starters as a rookie - Kelly Jennings, first round pick, who HAS looked good at times - and a converted safety - Jordan Babinauex, who started several games at safety because of Michael Boulware's coverage problems. Yes, the same Michael Boulware who blew the coverage on the winning TD pass by the Chargers with 30 seconds left. Boulware is considered much better at run support, so he was put back in the starting lineup to help shut down Tomlinson, which he did a good job of. Sadly, his suckage at coverage came back to bite them. Our nickel corner will likely be a guy who wasn't on the team 3 weeks ago. Unless they try and get fancy and line up Julian Peterson to cover a WR. He did it in San Fran on occasion, but as athletic as he is, I'm not too comfortable with it.

I'm focusing a bit much on the Dallas offense vs. Seattle defense part of the game a bit much because that's what it will come down to. There's no reason the Seattle offense should have any problem scoring on the Dallas defense. On one condition - they block DeMarcus Ware. That's all they have to do. Remember, the Lions put up 30+ points on the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Alexander should be able to run for 100+ yards pretty easily. As long as someone blocks Ware, Hasselbeck will have time. And I'm expecting a big game from Deion Branch. Darrell Jackson is banged up and may not play. Recent breakout D.J. Hackett is also dinger up. We gave up a first round pick for Branch. Time for him to polish off his Super Bowl MVP trophy, give it a kiss for good luck, and show us what he's made of.

So back to the Seattle defense. They were good early in the year at getting to the QB, but have slowed down lately. They need to pick that up again. And the Dallas offensive line isn't that good, so they should be able to get pressure with just four rushing. I don't see them blitzing a ton, since their secondary will need all the help they can get. But when they do blitz, they MUST get to Romo.

Last thing worth noting - during the regular season, Seattle doesn't get too fancy on defense. They play a pretty simple scheme, and don't blitz a ton. They did the same thing last year during the regular season. However, you may recall that during the playoffs, they made some key defensive adjustments. They took away the Redskins running game and forced Marc Brunell to beat them. (He could not.) They put 5 guys covering Steve Smith, and forced the rest of the Panthers to beat them. (They could not.) They took away the Steelers running game (for the most part), and forced Big Ben to beat them. (His stats in the Super Bowl were awful. Randel El threw the TD pass to Hines Ward, and Willie Parker busted off that one big run.) My point is that their coaches are smart. They know what to do to win, and they make big adjustments in the playoffs. The Seattle gameplan? Stop the run (not too hard against Dallas, the front 7 should be able to handle it), force Romo to beat them, and take advantage of knowing his weaknesses. The blueprint for beating them is there, they just have to excute.

So, although Seattle SHOULD win this game, I don't have a lot of confidence. They're turned the ball over WAY too much this season, and have given up WAY too many big plays. And as I've been thinking to myself the past few days, "You know, if they lose this, their Super Bowl window could be closing," I think I've convinced myself otherwise. Hasselbeck is 31, but that's not old for QBs really. This is only his 5th year as a full-time starter. Alexander is 29, and with the foot injury this year, he didn't put on a lot of mileage. He's got a few good years left in him. Walter Jones is getting up there at 32, but lineman can usually stick around til their mid-to-late 30s, and he's got a few years left on his contract. The defense is very young. Aside from Engram (who hasn't played much this year anyways), the WRs are pretty young. As long as they draft well (and they have since Holmgren got here for the most part), this team should remain competitive for a few more years.

Anyways, I babbled way too long on this one. I think Seattle should win, but I don't have the confidence in them to expect an easy win. Josh Brown last second field goal does it.

Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: Nate Burleson will have a key play returning punts. Since he was put back there, he's been an adventure. Sometimes trying to grab bouncing balls he shouldn't, sometimes busting out big returns (including a key TD return against the Rams, and another against the Chargers that was called back on a phantom holding call). He'll either fumble or take one to the house. I'm hoping it's the latter.

Seahawks 30, Cowboys 27.

PATRIOTS -8.5 over Jets
I know Anonymous is probably hoping for as detailed a breakdown of this one as the Seattle game, but I don't watch the Jets or Pats much. :P I will tell you this - no way Belichek lets Mangini (and the Jets) win twice in Foxboro in the same season. No way.

The Jets are basically winning with two things - solid defense and Pennington not losing the game. They got a lot of pressure on Brady when they beat the Pats. Something I'm sure they will adjust for this time. I'd be surprised if they can generate that much pressure again. And a few successful draws and play actions should be enough to slow the pass rush a bit.

The Pats are without Rodney Harrison, which hurts. But I still expect that defense to force Pennington into mistakes he's mostly avoided this season. I've read more than one writer say things about the Patriots (and Broncos actually) that they will often seem to only play up or down to the competition during the regular season because they don't want to give away too much. I think there's probably a little bit of truth to that. You can count on the Pats D showing the Jets some formations, looks, and blitzes they haven't seen from them before. That's their specialty really. Cooking up defensive schemes to confuse the other team.

I don't have a whole lot more to say about this game, so I'll sum it up with some key points:

* The Jets running game is not good enough to win the game on its own.
* Pennington is not good enough to win the game on his own.
* Brady just wins playoff games.
* Belichek just wins playoff games.
* The game is at Foxboro.

The spread seems just a little high, but I really think the Jets offense could be completely shut down.

Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: After giving way to Laurence Maroney most of the game, Corey Dilon busts out for a 36-yard TD run midway through the 4th quarter while the Patriots are mostly grinding out the clock. The score puts the game away.

Patriots 20, Jets 7.

Giants +7.5 over EAGLES
Last night I had the NFL Network on and was watching their daily show called "Total Access". They showed a press conference with Jeff Garcia. My wife was in the room, so I said to her, "Hey, do you think this guy looks gay?" She actually has pretty good gaydar, and can spot them a mile away. So I'm interested in her answer. The conversation follows:

Me: "Hey, do you think this guy looks gay?"
Her: "Huh? Why?"
Me: "Does he look gay to you?"
Her: "Why would you say that? Who is he?"
Me: "He's a football player. Just answer the question please."
Her: "Why are you making assumptions like that? Why the heck would you think he's gay?"
(Note: At this time, she still hasn't actually looked at the TV.)
Me: "I'm not making the assumption, there are rumors!"
Her: "Who's starting these rumors? Why?"
Me: "I don't know!! The press, his teammates! There is SOME speculation he's gay. I'm not the one who's first saying this!"
Her: "Oh." (And, finally actually looking at the TV.) "Yeah, he's gay."

That said, Garcia has played lights out down the stretch. He's looked awesome. The Giants are without Strahan, so that'll hurt their ability to put pressure on. Eli Manning has looked brutal lately. (It's a toss-up between him and Romo for the "Worst Looking QB Going Into The Playoffs" award.) Brian Westbrook is a threat all over the field. The Philly defense has a bit of its swagger back like they did previous years.

This is actually probably the toughest game to call I think. On one hand, if Garcia is THAT good, how come he's been regulated to backup duty on crappy teams since his departure from San Fran? On the other hand, I have real trouble envisioning Eli playing a good game under such pressure. Tiki is going to have to win this game for the Giants, like he did last week. And the Eagles probably know it.

I really want to pick the Giants as my "St. Ides Shocker of the Week", but I just can't get myself to do it. It could be a tough weekend in the Manning household.

Way-Too-Detailed Random Prediction: Before the first half, the Giants line up for a 41-yard field goal. Jusssst before the snap, the Eagles call a timeout, but the ball is snapped and kicked. Giants kicker Jay Feely misses it, badly. However, the play didn't count. After the timeout, he tries again and nails it. That field goal is the difference that causes the Eagles to not cover.

Eagles 23, Giants 17.