Playoff Picks, Round Two!

It's Divisional Round time, woohoo!

St. Ides went 3-1 last week, including picking the winners of all 4 games. (Only mistake was expecting Indy not to cover.)

Enough chit chat, let's get to the picks!

Colts +4.5 over RAVENS
As you can see from the previous entry, Anonymous likes McNair a hell of a lot more than I do. I don't think he's that great at this point in his career. His receivers are pretty average. The running game isn't exactly scary with the post-prison Jamal Lewis still trying to find his pre-conviction 2000+ yard form. Billick is calling the offensive plays now, and the Ravens have been pretty successful since he took over that job from Jim Fassel during the season. But I'm still not convinced. The Colts D showed a bit of life against the Chiefs last week, so maybe they have a bit of confidence. Freeney played a great game, and if he can put pressure on McNair, we could see some mistakes.

On the other side of the ball, we have Mr. Choke artist himself, Peyton Manning. Only the Chiefs total offensive ineptitude last week prevented Manning's 3 INT game from being more of a story. He didn't play very well. That game should have been an even bigger blowout than it was. But isn't Manning due for a huge playoff win? Doesn't it just seem like he has too much talent to keep fizzling out in the postseason? People like to make the Marino comparison, but Marino never had talent around him like Manning does.

The Ravens D is good, but not quite as dominant as people like to make it out to be. They key is they've stayed healthy. (Only Ray Lewis has missed any games among the defensive starters, and he only missed 2. That's an unheard of lack of injuries.) This game is going to come down to Manning. I hate to say it, but it will. If he can score on the Ravens D (and he has the talent, teammates, and experience to be able to), they can win. If he chokes again, they're toast. They will NOT win if he throws 3 picks again this week. I think Peyton plays decent, but not quite good enough to pull out the win. I'll take the points though.

Ravens 23, Colts 20.

SAINTS -5.5 over Eagles
The Jeff Garcia fairy tale (pun intended) comes to an end as the New Orleans one continues. I mean, come on, I'm not even going to waste too much time on this one. The NFL wants the Saints to win the Super Bowl, just like they wanted the Steelers to win last year.

The dome is going to be rocking, the Eagles are going to really miss Pro Bowl corner Lito Shepperd (dislocated elbow, ouch), and Brees, Bush, McAllister, and Colston will light up the scoreboard. I'd be shocked if the Eagles won this game, despite their roll of late.

Saints 27, Eagles 17.

Seattle +9.5 over BEARS
It looks to me like this spread went up from about 8 to around 9 since Monday. That's a ton of points to be giving. Wow.

A few things to consider here: Everybody points to when the Bears destroyed the Seahawks earlier in the season. 37-6 was the final. That was week 4, October 1st, 2006. Three and a half months ago. The Seahawks were without Shaun Alexader for the first time. The offensive line was banged up, with natural center Chris Spencer starting his first game at left guard. Backup RB Mo Morris got all of 11 carries. Rex Grossman hadn't imploded yet.

These are two different teams now. Very different. Alexander is back, and close to 100%. The offensive line has come together in recent weeks, with Chris Spencer moving to center, where he belongs, and he's playing very well. Hasselbeck has been a bit up and down, but he made some big passes late in the Dallas game. I still have confidence in him. Speaking of confidence, in week 4, Rex Grossman was in the middle of his huge upswing where people were proclaiming him the savior of the Bears' annual offensive woes. Now people are wondering how long Lovie Smith will wait before yanking him for Brian Griese. Bears All World DT Tommy Harris is out. People don't understand how dominant that guy is. In week 4, he was in the Seattle backfield all. Frickin. Day. Nobody could block him. Putting two or three bodies on him allowed Urlacher and others to make the plays. Oh, and Bears safety Mike Brown (who has a knack for making big plays) is out too.

No, this is not the same Bears defense. Not by a longshot.

Another thing people are talking about is how badly Seattle played last week, and how lucky they were to have won. Lucky? Please. Then I guess the Cowboys were just lucky to be in the game, considering they had a punt return for a TD. I guess the Cowboys were lucky Seattle didn't turn that safety into a TD and then go up by even more points. Actually, the Cowboys are lucky Romo did botch it. Because with 1:20 left on the clock, the odds were pretty good Seattle could march right down the field and score the winning FG with time expiring anyways. Luck, my ass. People act like that botched snap lost the game. It did not. The 20+ yard run they allowed on the first play with Seattle pinned inside their own 2, that lost the game.

The Seattle secondary is banged up, but it's not as bad as people thought. Pete Hunter gets allllll my love for coming off the street and playing a solid game at nickel corner. The rookie Jennings played well, and Babineaux (known as "Big Play Babs" since last year, when he had a few timely turnovers) lived up to his nickname with the heads up game saving tackle on Romo. If Romo, TO, and Terry Glenn couldn't exploit this secondary, there's no reason to believe the Bears can.

I said it last week, I'll say it again - the Seahawks coaching staff has done a PHENOMENAL job with game planning on defense the past two postseasons. I expect that to continue.

One other thing worth noting: Jerramy Stevens had the game of his career. He's been plagued with drops ever since the Super Bowl. Last week, he made catch after catch. He had zero drops. The dude is a matchup nightmare. He's 6 foot 7 and fast. Linebackers are too slow (and some are too small). Safeties are too small. If he can continue to be sure-handed, I think he can be the difference maker yet again. Let's see Urlacher try and cover him. And, even if he does a decent job, if Urlacher is 15 yards down the field in coverage, that means he's not at the line in run support.

Anyways, I think Seattle being a huge underdog helps them. A lot. No pressure on them. Yet they know they're the reigning NFC Champs. Meanwhile, the Bears haven't won a home playoff game in 10 years.

I'm leaning towards thinking Seattle wins this game, but man, I just can't pull the trigger. That's way too many points for any playoff game though.

Bears 23, Seahawks 20.

Patriots +4.5 over CHARGERS
I keep telling Anonymous to not worry about this game so much. Belichick and Brady vs. Schottenheimer and Rivers? Come on. I don't care about Tomlinson. I don't care about Merriman. I'd venture to say 90% of playoff games come down to coaching and QB play.

The Patriots are the best in the league in cooking up defensive game plans to confuse the opponent. Philip Rivers has looked like the young QB he is recently. He can easily be confused. The question will be how rattled he gets after the first couple mistakes (and he will make mistakes) and if he can keep himself composed.

Hate to bring Seattle up again, but they should have beaten the Chargers in week 16. It took a last second blown coverage long pass for the Chargers to pull out the win. How did they do it? Pretty easy, contain Tomlinson and force Rivers to beat you. He really shouldn't have been able to. I'm sure the Patriots coaching staff took a good hard look at that film, and I'm sure they learned something. Rivers was something like 0 for his first 11 passes, and Seattle wasn't even doing anything fancy. And if that Seattle defense can execute a pretty simple game plan and have it work, imagine what the Patriots can do?

On the other side of the ball, yes, Shaun Merriman is a roid raging monster. He's unblockable at times. But teams can and will adjust to block him and keep him off balance. He can be a little over aggressive and times, and can be fooled with play actions and bootleg type plays. He had 2 sacks against Seattle, including one on the first snap of the game. But they adjusted, and he was almost a non-factor the rest of the game.

Maybe the key to the game actually will be the tight ends on both teams. Antonio Gates is still probably the best TE in the league, and presents matchup problems. But if Rivers is a bit shaky back there, he might have trouble finding the big target. Ben Watson has had some big catches, and could sneak out of coverage here and there for a big play. Neither team really has standout WRs, so keep an eye on those TEs.

This should be a hell of a game, probably the best game of the weekend. But I'm sticking with the proven playoff winners until someone knocks them off.

Patriots 26, Chargers 24.