Week 13 Picks! (Steroid free) (now with extra carbohydrates!)

We're into the home stretch! And the holiday season! Which means lots of food and booze, and hopefully a slow enough work environment that you'll be seeing weekly picks from here through the Pro Bowl. No promises though. (I also plan on writing a little something about the baseball steroids thing, but figured the picks were more important right now.)

With 3 weeks left, 5 of the 12 playoff spots have been clinched. Tampa Bay is looking pretty good for the NFC South. The Giants are looking pretty good for the 1st NFC Wild Card spot. The Jaguars look pretty set as an AFC Wild Card. The Steelers have a 1 game lead and the tie-breaker over the Browns for the AFC North. And the Chargers would have to totally collapse to lose the AFC West. So really, there's not a whole lot of spots left up for grabs. It's more like 10 of the 12 spots are decided. Though the spots that ARE available have a lot of teams in the hunt.

OK, we're back. OJ is under arrest, Vick is in prison, and the Packers have clinched the NFC Central. Sorry I've got to rush through these but I do have a few things to take care of...

Last Time:
St. Ides: 9-7
Samichlaus: 8-8

Overall:
St. Ides: 51-52
Samichlaus: 39-64

Bengals -8.5 over NINERS
The Bengals are showing a little bit of life. While the Niners are not. There's some bad stuff going on in San Fran, with Alex Smith accusing Mike Nolan of ruining his career and trying to undermine his rep with teammates by questioning his toughness not playing through (what's been proven to be a pretty serious) injury. At this point in the season, I think it's safe to throw the "take the home dogs" strategy out the window. In the pool me and my dad are in, we're both near the bottom of the pack with a pedestrian 29-41 record. (Though my dad has been trying to lose on purpose lately.. for the last place booby prize.. and I've still been trying to win...) Anyways, Niners blow. Bengals 27, Niners 16.

Day after day the selection of Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers is looking like a huge mistake. Did anyone other than me notice how good Rodgers looked against the Cowboys? Anyway, I like the Bengals, but 8.5 is a lot to give so I'm taking the Niners and the points. Bengals 24 Niners 21

SAINTS -3.5 over Cardinals
Wow, this game actually has playoff ramnifications. Both teams are in the hunt for the final NFC Wild Card spot. The Saints are getting just a little hot and had a big win over the Falcons on Monday night. The Cardinals got absolutely dominated by Seattle with the NFC West at stake. To be fair, the Cardinals have been hit by injuries pretty badly, especially in their secondary. Which means Drew Brees and company should have a field day. Oh, and wouldn't it be somewhat ironic if the Saints go on a nice winning streak here and make the playoffs without Reggie Bush? Saints 31, Cardinals 20.

Yes it would. Reggie Bush is a good running back, but he's no Samkon Gado. I like the Saints to win easy... Saints 34 Cardinals 17

Seahawks -7.5 over PANTHERS
To answer Anonymous's recent question, it's Hasselbeck lately. He's looked awesome since Seattle has gone to a pass-happy attack, mostly due to an ineffective running game behind a shaking run-blocking offensive line. Hasselbeck has been making all the right decisions, has made the throws he's had to, and has been outsmarting opposing defenses by audibling very well at the line. (Including an interesting matchup against Urlacher a few weeks ago where both were exchanging audibles... I have to say, Hasselbeck came out ahead on most of those plays.) Another reason to like Hasselbeck is his personality. He's a pretty funny guy from all accounts, doesn't take himself too seriously, yet commands respect and inspires his teammates in the huddle when it matters. Here's a good clip that captures his personality perfectly. (And he talks about his days in Green Bay, so that's a reason for Samichlaus to actually watch it.)

Anyways, while Hasselbeck gets the offense going (and if he doesn't make the Pro Bowl, it'll be a travesty), the defense has been stepping up. This past weekend, underrated CB Marcus Trufant had 3 picks. The week before, Lofa Tatupu had 3. And free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney leads the league in sacks. Yes, you read that right. A Seahawk leads the league in sacks. The run defense has been solid, the pass defense has been even better. Thanks largely in part due to new assistant head coach/secondary coach Jim Mora and having two veteran safeties who know not to get beat deep. If Seattle doesn't scare the living bajeezus out of the other NFC playoff teams, they should. This team is two plays away from being 11-2. And as poorly as they played the first half of the season, is as good as they're playing now.

Okay, so I'm rambling a bit now.. As for this game... Seattle sometimes struggles getting started in 1pm games, but the Panthers offense is bad enough that it shouldn't matter. They shut down Steve Smith in the playoffs a few years ago when they had a decent QB and a running game. With neither of those going for them now, he'll have little impact. Seahawks 23, Panthers 10.

That's a great clip! There's one out there where he talks about getting drafted by Green Bay and how excited he was to go and play with Brett Favre. He ends it by saying something like "... so I figured it was time to take the poster of him hanging on my wall down". If I can find it, I'll post it. Meanwhile, what you said. Seattle 27 Panthers 13

Falcons +11.5 over BUCANNEERS
With playoff positioning at stake and a chance to wrap up the NFC South, the Bucs laid an egg last week against the Texans. Jeff Garcia has sat out two games with back problems, so that's not good. The Falcons pretty much stink, and now their head coach jumped ship before even finishing his first year. Star CB DeAngelo Hall was caught telling NO coach Sean Payton he wants to play for him DURING last week's game. Atlanta is pretty much in shambles. Which means take the points, cause nothing makes sense in the NFL. Bucs 23, Falcons 14.

The Falcons are in a state of turmoil, and the question is do they rise to the occasion and play for interim head coach Emmit Thomas? I'm going with yes. The Bucs will win, but in a close game. Bucs 24 Falcons 21

BROWNS -5.5 over Bills
Look! Another game that means something late in the season between two teams that have sucked a lot lately! I'm impressed with how resilient the Bills have been, especially since they've had some serious injuries and can't decide on a starting QB. But I've been even more impressed with the Browns and Dereck Anderson, who I think I even made a joke about in one of our first picks columns this season. Well, he's looked awesome. And now the Browns might find themselves in the same tricky situation the Chargers did a few years ago - a lower drafted QB actually playing well for them with a top draft pick QB with high expectations (and a phat contract) sitting on the bench. So far, it looks like the Chargers might have made the wrong move by letting Brees get away and keeping Rivers. Now the Browns have to figure out what to do between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. Good luck! (Oh, and former Wolverine Braylon Edwards has had a Pro Bowl caliber year as well.) Browns 27, Bills 20.

I think they trade Quinn to Miami for a second round pick. Unless Miami plans on choosing a QB... who's the hot QB in the draft this year anyways? Sunday's game time weather: Snow and Wind. So the question is, who can run the ball better? I'll take the Bills and Marshawn Lynch for the upset. Bills 17 Browns 10

PATRIOTS -23.5 over Jets
I think the spread is even higher now, but that's what it's listed as in my pool, which is what I usually pull these spreads from. The Revenge Bowl! Now accusations are flying back and forth that the Jets might have been caught videotaping the Pats signals last year. It's all pretty ridiculous. I'm not even going to spend time on the whole revenge thing cause you can read about it on every other website. I'll just say this is going to be ugly, and the after-game handshake should be interesting. Patriots 52, Jets 16.

I really think the Jets pride will keep this game closer than people think. But if St. Ides is right, look for Mangenius to sucker punch Belichick on the way out. Pats 37 Jets 20

Ravens -3.5 over DOLPHINS
Shouldn't the spread by higher than this? An 0-13 team against a team that almost knocked off the Pats? Yes, the Ravens got spanked last week by the Colts, but the Dolphins offense isn't exactly as explosive. And Kyle Boller actually looked like an NFL QB a couple weeks ago. I don't see the Fins winning this year... Ravens 20, Fins 10.

The great John Beck experiment is over in Miami. This team has no coach, no front office, and no players of any worth. No wonder my father in law hates the holidays. Ravens 27 Dolphins 10

CHIEFS +3.5 over Titans
Titans may have choked away their playoff hopes by blowing a decent lead against the Chargers last week and losing in OT. Chiefs aren't that bad, but Herm Edwards still blows as a coach. They're still kinda tough at home though, and Vince Young hasn't been very good for most of this year. I'm still not entirely sure how the Titans have won as many games as they have. Decent running game and defense I guess... Chiefs 20, Titans 17.

Hell, I can't figure out how the Packers have won so many games this year. Chiefs are getting 3.5... hmm, I don't know. I'm going with Tennesee. Just cause I can. Tennesee 30 Chiefs 20

Jaguars +3.5 over STEELERS
I actually think the Jaguars are a decent team. Took them awhile to convince me, but call me convinced. The Steelers are decent too. These teams could very well meet in the first round of the playoffs. I'll take the points. Steelers 23, Jags 20.

Steelers at home... they're going to get at least 3 points off of ref calls. That leaves a half a point to cover, and I just don't think it's a problem. Steelers 24 Jags 17

RAMS +9.5 over Packers
The Packers are due for a letdown game or two, right? Especially since they are pretty much locked into the #2 seed. They're 1 game behind the Cowboys for #1 (but lose the head-to-head tie-breaker, so it's really like 2 games). And 2 games ahead of Seattle (but would lose the conference record tie-breaker, so yeah, it's 2 games). Favre doesn't really have a great history in domes, and the Rams can still be frisky at times. I expect the Packers to pretty much win easily, but a doodoo time TD could keep the Rams within 10. Packers 30, Rams 24.

I agree with this analysis completely. I will say that the Packers looked real good against the Raiders, better than I expected. The D was flying all over the field, and nearly pitched a shutout. If the Packers have this game put away early, look for the second string to come in and finish. Meanwhile, Mark Bulger returns to the Rams just to make it interesting. Packers 34 Rams 27

Colts -10.5 over RAIDERS
Okay, I take back what I said towards the beginning of the season about the Raiders surprising people. They're still pretty bad. If the Colts dismantled the Ravens so easily, I'll lay the points. Colts 31, Raiders 13.

The Raiders are a joke. If the Pack can win by 31 at home, the Colts win by at least 20 on the road. Colts 31 Raiders 10


Lions +10.5 over CHARGERS
Even after choking away that game against the Cowboys, the Lions are still right in the thick of the hunt for the final NFC playoff spot. There's some trouble brewing in SD with Tomlison giving Phillip Rivers the cold shoulder last week on the sidelines while he was playing poorly. It would have been interesting to see how that developed had the Chargers not come back to win. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose outright this week. So I'll happily take 10 points. Lions 26, Chargers 24.

I just have to say this: Tomlinson is a big wussy. I love his story, and how he made it to the NFL, but he reminds me of a guy that used to play for the Mets named Greg Jefferies. Grow the fuck up, will you? Another million dollar talent with a five cent emotional makeup. I like the Lions and the points. Chargers 34 Lions 27

Eagles +10.5 over COWBOYS
Ugh. I'm so disgusted by the Cowboys and the Romo love-fest I can't even comment on this game. Eagles 26, Cowboys 24.

Me too... but boy, that Romo is something huh? tee hee hee. The Eagles will keep it real close... Cowboys 27 Eagles 24


Redskins +4.5 over GIANTS
Does Eli Manning really scare any team going into the playoffs? I didn't think so. The Skins are still alive for the final Wild Card spot as well. Redskins 23, Giants 20.

Apply the rule of the more desperate team, and the Redskins win. The game means more to them. Eli might not scare anybody, but I'll bet Jason Campbell has nightmares about Osi Umenyiora... Skins 24 Giants 21

Bears +9.5 over VIKINGS
Just as everybody is sucking Adrian Peterson's peepee almost as much as Tony Romo's, he has 14 carries for 3 yards (a whopping 0.2 yards per carry) against the Niners last week. Of course, Chester Taylor ripped off an 84-yard TD run and the Niners suck enough that the Vikings still won and currently hold the #6 seed in the NFC if the season ended today. Whether or not the Vikes (who are pretty much one-dimensional on both sides of the ball) scare anybody going into the playoffs is debatable, but I'm thinking they'll stumble and not make it. The Bears get a big chance to play spoiler here, and their defense still has enough pride to get amped up to stop Peterson. Bears 20, Vikes 12.

I absloutely agree. The Bears will win this game by virtue of defense and special teams. I see a low scoring loss for the Vikes, who will not make the playoffs. Bears 20 Vikes 10 (Samichlaus LOVES the under @ 43)