I was cleaning up the desktop on my computer yesterday, and came across a rough draft of an item I posted last season. Since we get about as many things wrong as right with our predictions around here, allow me a moment to pat myself on the back for these two good ones... One of them eerily accurate...
Posted on 10/10/2007, after week 5, Power Rankings for the league:
"Playoff Teams:
AFC: Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Titans, Ravens, Raiders (someone has to win the AFC West, right?)
NFC: Packers, Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks, Lions, Giants"
Wow, not bad. Only 1 NFC miss (Skins instead of Lions, who, to be fair, were 3-1 at that point I think.) 2 AFC misses - Jags and Chargers instead of Ravens and Raiders.(Wow, did I really pick the Raiders?) Hitting on 9 of the 12 playoff teams only 5 weeks into the season means something.. Either I got lucky, or I was able to really feel which teams were truly good and bad. I'll chalk it up to luck.
So look for the tradition to continue, with another Power Rankings item after week 5!
Now for the other accurate item:
"2. Patriots
Some more quotes I sent to Anonymous: "Oh and repeat after me again: "I am a Patriots fan, I am spoiled by success, and I can expect ZERO sympathy from the Steves this season. None whatsoever." Also, did you see the Browns accusing Vrabel of going for the knees? Between that and Wilfork, there's some bad karma building up. You've been warned." While they're enjoying running up the score against everybody as a big "F You" to those who might think their video-taping shennanigans, what goes around comes around. The Football Gods have not finished with this scenario yet. And while Tom Brady gets allllllll my love, he's about due for a torn ACL, isn't he? I mean, if Patriots players are going for opposing QBs' knees, (something they absolutely do not need to do to win), it's just a matter of time before someone gives them a taste of their own medicine."
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
Week 3 Picks!
Okay, meeting over, here's the color-coding stuff and records from last week. I did a bit better...
Last Week:
St. Ides: 9-6
Samichlaus: 7-8
Overall:
Samichlaus: 17-14
St. Ides: 16-15
And now, the picks...
Cincinnati (0-2) at NY Giants (2-0) -13.5
What do you get when you take a bad team, send them on the road to play a good team with a serious D, and give ‘em almost a two touchdown head start? You get a sucker bet. I’m officially convinced: after losing two weeks in a row taking the Bungals, there’s no way I take them this week.
Giants 30 Bengals 10
I agree. Though a late garbage time TD might help the Bungles cover. Their offense is pretty bad and their defense is even worse. Giants 23, Bengals 6.
Arizona (2-0) at Washington (1-1) -3.5
St. Ides nailed it last week: this could be the Cardinals year. Going up against former Seahawk “great” Jim Zorn and his Redskins shouldn’t be a big issue. The Skins surprised me last week with a performance that showed maybe this Zorn guy might know a thing or two about being a head coach, but I don’t see the Skins winning this game. I really like the Cards and the points.
Arizona 20 Washington 17
Whoa whoa, slow down. Let's not go crazy. The Cardinals have beaten the Niners and Dolphins so far. Those teams combined for, what, about 5 wins last season? Long road trip for the Cardinals and I'm going to say this every week until it happens - Kurt Warner's lack of mobility is going to get him hurt. Jason Taylor might be just the person to do it. Skins 20, Cardinals 16.
Kansas City (0-2) at Atlanta (1-1) -5.5
So much for being tough at Arrowhead. The Chiefs won’t start winning until they’re 2-8 with no chance of making the playoffs. Just another Herm Edwards season: win when it doesn’t matter. Besides, there’s no way KC brings the kind of pressure Matt Ryan saw against the Bucs, who sacked the young QB 4 times. I like Atlanta by a ten spot.
Atlanta 27 Kansas City 17
The Chiefs may be the worst team in the league this year. It looks like some guy named Thigpen might be their starting QB this week. Another big day for Michael Turner. Falcons 24, Chiefs 16.
Tampa Bay (1-1) at Chicago (1-1) -3.5
With Devon Hester banged up, the Bears will be hard pressed to do anything to score this week. But the Bucs will be hard pressed to do anything either. Although Tommie Harris of the Bears has been limited in practice, look for him to start. This game will come down to which D can make more plays, and that D belongs to Chicago. I like the Bears in a close game
Chicago 15 Tampa Bay 10
I think it's safe to say John Gruden is officially off his rocker. First he tells Derrick Brooks he's under a gag order with the media regarding any hint about his injury. Then he starts Brian "How Am I Still In The NFL, Nevermind A Starter" Griese over Jeff "I'm Not Really Too Injured Too Play But I Am Gay" Garcia. And says Griese is the starter for the forseeable future. Now he's pissed off because WR Michael Clayton said he's ready to start for an injured Joey Galloway, flipping out because HE'S the head coach, and HE will decide who starts when. Sheesh. Anyways, it's just enough wackiness to think the Bears will hold at home. Bears 16, Bucs 10.
Carolina (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2) -3.5
This week St. Ides emailed me to announce the beginning of the Gus Frerotte era in Minnesota. Jeez. These guys are pretty desperate, and with Adrian Peterson nursing a hamstring injury again I ask: where is the offense going to come from? The Panthers have been surprisingly good. They’re playing smart D and winning games. I like them this week to win outright.
Caroline 24 Minnesota 23
Yeah, I like the Panthers too. They're 2-0 and that was without Steve Smith. Now Smith is back, and I'm sure he's fired up. Maybe this time he can direct some of that passion at the opponent instead of his teammates. I'm enjoying watching the Vikings struggle, especially since they were a popular Super Bowl pick with the "real media" in the offseason. And that has nothing to do with the fact they stole Steve Hutchinson from Seattle. Okay, it does. Fuck the Vikings. Panthers 17, Vikings 16.
Miami (0-2) at New England (2-0) -12.5
I heard some Dolphin this week mouthing off about “No Tom Brady, that’s a win for us”. Bad move. If the Patriots needed any further motivation to win this game big, that was it. I really think the Pats will make this a statement game and I pity the hapless Dolphins who despite their best efforts just aren’t any good.
New England 34 Miami 6
That "some Dolphin" was resident NFL knucklehead and former Steeler Joey Porter. The best part about that story was the next day he said "Man, all you media guys took my words out of context and twisted it around!" And then he proceeded to say the exact same thing about Cassel a second time. What a moron. Still, if the Chiefs kept it kind of close in Week 1, maybe the Pats just aren't going to totally thrash anyone this season? I'll probably regret this, but I'm taking the points. Patriots 23, Dolphins 13.
Oakland (1-1) at Buffalo (2-0) -9.5
With the threat of unemployment looming over his head, Lane Kiffin rallied his troops last week in a shocking upset. The Bills on the other hand continue to surprise me with their hard fought victories. I keep waiting for the Dick Jauron factor to kick in, but maybe he’s realizing his potential as a head coach. 9.5 is a lot of points to cover, right? Even for a good Bills team at home
Buffalo 27 Oakland 20
It's only week 3, but here's a bold prediction: the Bills win the AFC East. That's a good young team. Their defense has looked very good. And their offense isn't too bad either, with Trent Edwards seeming to be a solid QB. The Raiders won't put up many points. Bills 23, Raiders 10.
Houston (0-1) at Tennessee (2-0) -4.5
So much for my theory about the Titans. I’m telling you, this team had nothing against Green Bay in their final preseason game, and here they are winning football games. Houston was given a week off thanks to Ike so they are well rested but the question remains: are they any good? I’m going to give them a shot this week, but not to win. As improbable as this sounds to me, look for the Titans to go to 3-0
Tennessee 20 Houston 17
The Titans have a pretty solid defense. And we really don't know what we have in the Texans. I'm sticking with Tennessee until they prove me wrong. Titans 23, Texans 13.
St. Louis (0-2) at Seattle (0-2) -9.5
OK, Seattle is in a tough situation. I have never, and I mean never seen a team so obliterated by injuries. If San Francisco can whup them at home then I think the Rams can keep it closer than 9.5. I wonder what kind of shape Koren Robinson is in, because he’s probably going to be the Seahawks #1 receiver this week. Unbelieveable.
Seattle 34 St. Louis 27
Yep, Seattle went into last week's game down their top 4 WRs. By midway throguh the 1st quarter, they were down their top 6 WRs. TOP SIX!!!! They had 3 healthy WRs, 2 of which hadn't been on the team the previous Tuesday. Still, they should have won the game. The defense played horrible down the stretch, forcing punts on only 3 of San Fran's final 10 possessions. And yes, good ol K-Drop is back. Maybe it was the alcohol that was causing him to drop so many passes in his previous stint? And maybe now that he's (finally) sober, he'll show good hands? And maybe my boss will fire the two consultants who's fuck-ups I've been fixing all week and just give me the money he's been paying them. If Seattle can win this game, they should get both Engram and Branch back after next week's bye. Just in time to get their asses kicked by the Giants (a game I'll be at) in Week 5. Seahawks 23, Rams 20.
New Orleans (1-1) at Denver (2-0) -5.5
I guess we all know by now that I like Denver at home, and as much as I also like betting on the Saints, I’m going with the Broncos. New Orleans is a below sea level team built around Reggie Bush going to a high altitude climate. This game may be close for a half, but the thin air will wear down the Saints. Denver by a TD sounds about right
Denver 27 New Orleans 20
The Broncos could be a sleeper team this season. They have a decent defense, Cutler seems servicable, and they have their usual successful "system" running game. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled on offense with Marques Colston out and their defense looks pretty bad. Broncos 26, Saints 20.
Detroit (0-2) at San Francisco (1-1) -4.5
Wow. This week’s hands down SBS stinker pits two pretty hapless teams against each other. Detroit showed a little fight last week against the Packers by battling back from a 21 – 0 deficit to take a 25 – 24 lead, while San Francisco handed it to Seattle at Seattle. I’m a bit NFC North inclined, so I’m going with the Lions to win. Why? The Lions have enough talent. They just can’t seem to put it together. Besides, San Francisco reached their quota of wins last week
Detroit 27 San Francisco 24
Maybe this is me being delusional and hoping Seattle isn't really as bad as they looked last week.. but J.T. O'Sullivan showed some nice poise under pressure (he was sacked 8 times, and it probably should have been more like 11) and made some nice throws. Plus, factor in the revenge factor for Mike Martz, now the offensive coordinator in SF after being fired by Detroit. Maybe the Niners aren't as bad as people thought? Niners 27, Lions 20.
Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1) -5.5
It took all Indy had to beat the Vikings last week, but one thing was apparent: by the second half of that game Peyton Manning had found his rhythm again. This week, at home, he’ll have it going right from the start. Look for Indy to cruise.
Colts 31 Jags 20
I'll have to disagree on that one. The Jaguars always play the Colts tough, and Indy is still banged up enough to be not their usual selves. Plus Bob Sanders is out for 4-6 weeks, and he's the heart of that Indy D. I'll take the points, I think this spread is way too high. Colts 23, Jags 20.
Pittsburgh (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1) -3.5
Philly is coming off a tough loss at Dallas Monday night despite playing their hearts out…at least on offense. This week they go against arguably the best team in the AFC. The Steelers have played good solid D, and last week (in case you missed it) Big Ben completed 11-18 in 60 mph wind gusts. I like the Steelers this week. There’s too much stacked against Philly
Steelers 28 Eagles 24
Actually, I like the Eagles in this game. Westbrook is a nightmare for opposing defenses and McNabb looks like his old self. Plus Big Ben has a separated shoulder that nobody is talking about. Eagles 28, Steelers 24.
Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (1-0) -2.5
So Baltimore got a break with Ike rolling through Houston last week. This week they play a gritty Browns team who took a tough loss against Pittsburgh. I like the Browns, really, and it’s hard to imagine that team going to 0-3 but that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Joe Flacco looked like a young Ben Rothels… Big Ben two weeks ago as he lumbered around the field in the Raven’s win. Let’s go with the Ravens again. I’m betting that this Flacco kid’s got some magic in him
Baltimore 24 Cleveland 21
I don't have much to add here. Other than I'll take the points, but just barely.
Ravens 24, Browns 23.
Dallas (2-0) at Green Bay (2-0) +2.5
It’s hard for me to bet against the Pack, but I’m going to. Dallas showed me something last week with an astonishing vertical game. There’s no doubt that Terrell Owens can stretch a field, but Tony Romo’s timing to T.O. was impeccable. This is going to be a challenge for the Packer D, especially with starting safety Atari Bigby out (replaced by a pretty good VA Tech guy named Aaron Rouse) Conversely, watching Greg Jennings waiting downfield for an Aaron Rodgers bomb was enough to convince me they’re not quite there yet. Rodgers has been everything advertised: he’s cool, confident and talented. But this is a team sport and the Cowboys have the depth. I’ll keep hoping that the short week hurts them.
Dallas 37 Green Bay 27
Uh oh, looks like Samichlaus is trying to pull the good ol' "reverse jinx" move on this one! This should be a shootout, but the difference will be the Packers CBs. They'll eb able to get their hands on TO and rough him up a bit, and he hates dealing with that. It totally throws him off his game. Also, the Packers should have an advantage in the running game. How they're getting almost a field goal at home, I have no idea. I'll say it again: Tony Romo is overrated. Packers 33, Cowboys 26.
NY Jets (1-1) at San Diego (0-2) -8.5
It’s Brett the Jet on MNF and that means show time. San Diego is not an 0-2 team but there’s way too many points separating these two. Brett will keep it close enough to cover this shoot out, and maybe even close enough to win
Jets 37 San Diego 34
Yeah, that's way too many points. I'm still not sure how the heck the Jets didn't give the Pats a better game last week. Oh, and Tomlinson is banged up for the Chargers. Did I mention I don't trust Phillip Rivers? Chargers 27, Jets 23.
Last Week:
St. Ides: 9-6
Samichlaus: 7-8
Overall:
Samichlaus: 17-14
St. Ides: 16-15
And now, the picks...
Cincinnati (0-2) at NY Giants (2-0) -13.5
What do you get when you take a bad team, send them on the road to play a good team with a serious D, and give ‘em almost a two touchdown head start? You get a sucker bet. I’m officially convinced: after losing two weeks in a row taking the Bungals, there’s no way I take them this week.
Giants 30 Bengals 10
I agree. Though a late garbage time TD might help the Bungles cover. Their offense is pretty bad and their defense is even worse. Giants 23, Bengals 6.
Arizona (2-0) at Washington (1-1) -3.5
St. Ides nailed it last week: this could be the Cardinals year. Going up against former Seahawk “great” Jim Zorn and his Redskins shouldn’t be a big issue. The Skins surprised me last week with a performance that showed maybe this Zorn guy might know a thing or two about being a head coach, but I don’t see the Skins winning this game. I really like the Cards and the points.
Arizona 20 Washington 17
Whoa whoa, slow down. Let's not go crazy. The Cardinals have beaten the Niners and Dolphins so far. Those teams combined for, what, about 5 wins last season? Long road trip for the Cardinals and I'm going to say this every week until it happens - Kurt Warner's lack of mobility is going to get him hurt. Jason Taylor might be just the person to do it. Skins 20, Cardinals 16.
Kansas City (0-2) at Atlanta (1-1) -5.5
So much for being tough at Arrowhead. The Chiefs won’t start winning until they’re 2-8 with no chance of making the playoffs. Just another Herm Edwards season: win when it doesn’t matter. Besides, there’s no way KC brings the kind of pressure Matt Ryan saw against the Bucs, who sacked the young QB 4 times. I like Atlanta by a ten spot.
Atlanta 27 Kansas City 17
The Chiefs may be the worst team in the league this year. It looks like some guy named Thigpen might be their starting QB this week. Another big day for Michael Turner. Falcons 24, Chiefs 16.
Tampa Bay (1-1) at Chicago (1-1) -3.5
With Devon Hester banged up, the Bears will be hard pressed to do anything to score this week. But the Bucs will be hard pressed to do anything either. Although Tommie Harris of the Bears has been limited in practice, look for him to start. This game will come down to which D can make more plays, and that D belongs to Chicago. I like the Bears in a close game
Chicago 15 Tampa Bay 10
I think it's safe to say John Gruden is officially off his rocker. First he tells Derrick Brooks he's under a gag order with the media regarding any hint about his injury. Then he starts Brian "How Am I Still In The NFL, Nevermind A Starter" Griese over Jeff "I'm Not Really Too Injured Too Play But I Am Gay" Garcia. And says Griese is the starter for the forseeable future. Now he's pissed off because WR Michael Clayton said he's ready to start for an injured Joey Galloway, flipping out because HE'S the head coach, and HE will decide who starts when. Sheesh. Anyways, it's just enough wackiness to think the Bears will hold at home. Bears 16, Bucs 10.
Carolina (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2) -3.5
This week St. Ides emailed me to announce the beginning of the Gus Frerotte era in Minnesota. Jeez. These guys are pretty desperate, and with Adrian Peterson nursing a hamstring injury again I ask: where is the offense going to come from? The Panthers have been surprisingly good. They’re playing smart D and winning games. I like them this week to win outright.
Caroline 24 Minnesota 23
Yeah, I like the Panthers too. They're 2-0 and that was without Steve Smith. Now Smith is back, and I'm sure he's fired up. Maybe this time he can direct some of that passion at the opponent instead of his teammates. I'm enjoying watching the Vikings struggle, especially since they were a popular Super Bowl pick with the "real media" in the offseason. And that has nothing to do with the fact they stole Steve Hutchinson from Seattle. Okay, it does. Fuck the Vikings. Panthers 17, Vikings 16.
Miami (0-2) at New England (2-0) -12.5
I heard some Dolphin this week mouthing off about “No Tom Brady, that’s a win for us”. Bad move. If the Patriots needed any further motivation to win this game big, that was it. I really think the Pats will make this a statement game and I pity the hapless Dolphins who despite their best efforts just aren’t any good.
New England 34 Miami 6
That "some Dolphin" was resident NFL knucklehead and former Steeler Joey Porter. The best part about that story was the next day he said "Man, all you media guys took my words out of context and twisted it around!" And then he proceeded to say the exact same thing about Cassel a second time. What a moron. Still, if the Chiefs kept it kind of close in Week 1, maybe the Pats just aren't going to totally thrash anyone this season? I'll probably regret this, but I'm taking the points. Patriots 23, Dolphins 13.
Oakland (1-1) at Buffalo (2-0) -9.5
With the threat of unemployment looming over his head, Lane Kiffin rallied his troops last week in a shocking upset. The Bills on the other hand continue to surprise me with their hard fought victories. I keep waiting for the Dick Jauron factor to kick in, but maybe he’s realizing his potential as a head coach. 9.5 is a lot of points to cover, right? Even for a good Bills team at home
Buffalo 27 Oakland 20
It's only week 3, but here's a bold prediction: the Bills win the AFC East. That's a good young team. Their defense has looked very good. And their offense isn't too bad either, with Trent Edwards seeming to be a solid QB. The Raiders won't put up many points. Bills 23, Raiders 10.
Houston (0-1) at Tennessee (2-0) -4.5
So much for my theory about the Titans. I’m telling you, this team had nothing against Green Bay in their final preseason game, and here they are winning football games. Houston was given a week off thanks to Ike so they are well rested but the question remains: are they any good? I’m going to give them a shot this week, but not to win. As improbable as this sounds to me, look for the Titans to go to 3-0
Tennessee 20 Houston 17
The Titans have a pretty solid defense. And we really don't know what we have in the Texans. I'm sticking with Tennessee until they prove me wrong. Titans 23, Texans 13.
St. Louis (0-2) at Seattle (0-2) -9.5
OK, Seattle is in a tough situation. I have never, and I mean never seen a team so obliterated by injuries. If San Francisco can whup them at home then I think the Rams can keep it closer than 9.5. I wonder what kind of shape Koren Robinson is in, because he’s probably going to be the Seahawks #1 receiver this week. Unbelieveable.
Seattle 34 St. Louis 27
Yep, Seattle went into last week's game down their top 4 WRs. By midway throguh the 1st quarter, they were down their top 6 WRs. TOP SIX!!!! They had 3 healthy WRs, 2 of which hadn't been on the team the previous Tuesday. Still, they should have won the game. The defense played horrible down the stretch, forcing punts on only 3 of San Fran's final 10 possessions. And yes, good ol K-Drop is back. Maybe it was the alcohol that was causing him to drop so many passes in his previous stint? And maybe now that he's (finally) sober, he'll show good hands? And maybe my boss will fire the two consultants who's fuck-ups I've been fixing all week and just give me the money he's been paying them. If Seattle can win this game, they should get both Engram and Branch back after next week's bye. Just in time to get their asses kicked by the Giants (a game I'll be at) in Week 5. Seahawks 23, Rams 20.
New Orleans (1-1) at Denver (2-0) -5.5
I guess we all know by now that I like Denver at home, and as much as I also like betting on the Saints, I’m going with the Broncos. New Orleans is a below sea level team built around Reggie Bush going to a high altitude climate. This game may be close for a half, but the thin air will wear down the Saints. Denver by a TD sounds about right
Denver 27 New Orleans 20
The Broncos could be a sleeper team this season. They have a decent defense, Cutler seems servicable, and they have their usual successful "system" running game. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled on offense with Marques Colston out and their defense looks pretty bad. Broncos 26, Saints 20.
Detroit (0-2) at San Francisco (1-1) -4.5
Wow. This week’s hands down SBS stinker pits two pretty hapless teams against each other. Detroit showed a little fight last week against the Packers by battling back from a 21 – 0 deficit to take a 25 – 24 lead, while San Francisco handed it to Seattle at Seattle. I’m a bit NFC North inclined, so I’m going with the Lions to win. Why? The Lions have enough talent. They just can’t seem to put it together. Besides, San Francisco reached their quota of wins last week
Detroit 27 San Francisco 24
Maybe this is me being delusional and hoping Seattle isn't really as bad as they looked last week.. but J.T. O'Sullivan showed some nice poise under pressure (he was sacked 8 times, and it probably should have been more like 11) and made some nice throws. Plus, factor in the revenge factor for Mike Martz, now the offensive coordinator in SF after being fired by Detroit. Maybe the Niners aren't as bad as people thought? Niners 27, Lions 20.
Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1) -5.5
It took all Indy had to beat the Vikings last week, but one thing was apparent: by the second half of that game Peyton Manning had found his rhythm again. This week, at home, he’ll have it going right from the start. Look for Indy to cruise.
Colts 31 Jags 20
I'll have to disagree on that one. The Jaguars always play the Colts tough, and Indy is still banged up enough to be not their usual selves. Plus Bob Sanders is out for 4-6 weeks, and he's the heart of that Indy D. I'll take the points, I think this spread is way too high. Colts 23, Jags 20.
Pittsburgh (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1) -3.5
Philly is coming off a tough loss at Dallas Monday night despite playing their hearts out…at least on offense. This week they go against arguably the best team in the AFC. The Steelers have played good solid D, and last week (in case you missed it) Big Ben completed 11-18 in 60 mph wind gusts. I like the Steelers this week. There’s too much stacked against Philly
Steelers 28 Eagles 24
Actually, I like the Eagles in this game. Westbrook is a nightmare for opposing defenses and McNabb looks like his old self. Plus Big Ben has a separated shoulder that nobody is talking about. Eagles 28, Steelers 24.
Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (1-0) -2.5
So Baltimore got a break with Ike rolling through Houston last week. This week they play a gritty Browns team who took a tough loss against Pittsburgh. I like the Browns, really, and it’s hard to imagine that team going to 0-3 but that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Joe Flacco looked like a young Ben Rothels… Big Ben two weeks ago as he lumbered around the field in the Raven’s win. Let’s go with the Ravens again. I’m betting that this Flacco kid’s got some magic in him
Baltimore 24 Cleveland 21
I don't have much to add here. Other than I'll take the points, but just barely.
Ravens 24, Browns 23.
Dallas (2-0) at Green Bay (2-0) +2.5
It’s hard for me to bet against the Pack, but I’m going to. Dallas showed me something last week with an astonishing vertical game. There’s no doubt that Terrell Owens can stretch a field, but Tony Romo’s timing to T.O. was impeccable. This is going to be a challenge for the Packer D, especially with starting safety Atari Bigby out (replaced by a pretty good VA Tech guy named Aaron Rouse) Conversely, watching Greg Jennings waiting downfield for an Aaron Rodgers bomb was enough to convince me they’re not quite there yet. Rodgers has been everything advertised: he’s cool, confident and talented. But this is a team sport and the Cowboys have the depth. I’ll keep hoping that the short week hurts them.
Dallas 37 Green Bay 27
Uh oh, looks like Samichlaus is trying to pull the good ol' "reverse jinx" move on this one! This should be a shootout, but the difference will be the Packers CBs. They'll eb able to get their hands on TO and rough him up a bit, and he hates dealing with that. It totally throws him off his game. Also, the Packers should have an advantage in the running game. How they're getting almost a field goal at home, I have no idea. I'll say it again: Tony Romo is overrated. Packers 33, Cowboys 26.
NY Jets (1-1) at San Diego (0-2) -8.5
It’s Brett the Jet on MNF and that means show time. San Diego is not an 0-2 team but there’s way too many points separating these two. Brett will keep it close enough to cover this shoot out, and maybe even close enough to win
Jets 37 San Diego 34
Yeah, that's way too many points. I'm still not sure how the heck the Jets didn't give the Pats a better game last week. Oh, and Tomlinson is banged up for the Chargers. Did I mention I don't trust Phillip Rivers? Chargers 27, Jets 23.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
My Sunday
One thing you’ve got to hand to this global warming thing: the drier climate in the summer has kept my lawn relatively tame. Of course, the stronger-moister-more-intense storms that are making their way through the east coast have brought upon a grand late season rally for the lawn, and so today at 8:00 AM I was outside manning the mower for about the fourth time this season.
It was a good battle. I drained two tanks of gas and several phasers, and much like the Yangs the grass kept coming. OK, that’s a Star Trek reference: google “The Omega Glory”. However when the battle ended, Mrs. Samichlaus was proud that she could boast a freshly mowed lawn to go with her exhausted husband.
OK, now on to the Packers game.
The Packers looked real good today, then they looked real bad, and then Jon Kitna showed up and all of a sudden they looked real good again. This Packer team isn’t much different than last year’s team: once again they are the youngest team in the league, and at times they play like it. They came out like gangbusters, taking a 21-0lead and leaving the Lions looking baffled and befuddled. Aaron Rodgers was all farts and giggles on the sideline as halftime approached and I started thinking to myself “this is too easy”. Turns out I was right. The Lions scored 25 points… yes, there was a safety involved, and the Packers answered with a field goal. That put the score at an improbable 25 – 24 with 7:21 to go, and now I thought to myself “this is a good test for Aaron”.
Last week, Aaron Rodgers was like a silent assassin, cool and unflappable. BTW, I never noticed this before, but you spell assassin “ass” “ass” “in”. Go figure. Anyway, this week the silent assassin (I just love typing that word all of a sudden!) had to come from behind.
Just let it go.
Back on track. Rodgers drove the team quickly down field and after Brandon Jackson inexplicably left his feet to try to catch a third down pass, the Packer kicked a field goal putting them up by two. It was then that Jon Kitna showed up. An interception to Charles Woodson (Jacksons scores a TD on a 18 yard TD run), another interception to Woodson for six, and a final interception to Nick Collins for another six, put this game away.
Next week the Cowboys come to town. The Cowboys don’t drop passes. Their QB doesn’t throw interceptions, and gets to have sex with Jessica Simpson. Their star wide receiver actually plays well enough that no one talks about his potential anymore because he’s realized it. The Pack will have to play a perfect game to have a chance to win that one. Either that or drain a few phasers on the Cowboys who also like the Yangs will keep coming.
It was a good battle. I drained two tanks of gas and several phasers, and much like the Yangs the grass kept coming. OK, that’s a Star Trek reference: google “The Omega Glory”. However when the battle ended, Mrs. Samichlaus was proud that she could boast a freshly mowed lawn to go with her exhausted husband.
OK, now on to the Packers game.
The Packers looked real good today, then they looked real bad, and then Jon Kitna showed up and all of a sudden they looked real good again. This Packer team isn’t much different than last year’s team: once again they are the youngest team in the league, and at times they play like it. They came out like gangbusters, taking a 21-0lead and leaving the Lions looking baffled and befuddled. Aaron Rodgers was all farts and giggles on the sideline as halftime approached and I started thinking to myself “this is too easy”. Turns out I was right. The Lions scored 25 points… yes, there was a safety involved, and the Packers answered with a field goal. That put the score at an improbable 25 – 24 with 7:21 to go, and now I thought to myself “this is a good test for Aaron”.
Last week, Aaron Rodgers was like a silent assassin, cool and unflappable. BTW, I never noticed this before, but you spell assassin “ass” “ass” “in”. Go figure. Anyway, this week the silent assassin (I just love typing that word all of a sudden!) had to come from behind.
Just let it go.
Back on track. Rodgers drove the team quickly down field and after Brandon Jackson inexplicably left his feet to try to catch a third down pass, the Packer kicked a field goal putting them up by two. It was then that Jon Kitna showed up. An interception to Charles Woodson (Jacksons scores a TD on a 18 yard TD run), another interception to Woodson for six, and a final interception to Nick Collins for another six, put this game away.
Next week the Cowboys come to town. The Cowboys don’t drop passes. Their QB doesn’t throw interceptions, and gets to have sex with Jessica Simpson. Their star wide receiver actually plays well enough that no one talks about his potential anymore because he’s realized it. The Pack will have to play a perfect game to have a chance to win that one. Either that or drain a few phasers on the Cowboys who also like the Yangs will keep coming.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Week 2 Picks!
Happy Friday! Interesting first week. Lots of home teams won. And I hear there was an injury or two. Lots of favorites won and covered. Which means I did poorly. Samichlaus is off to a decent start though...
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 10-6
St.Ides: 7-9
Tennessee (1-0) at Cincinnati (0-1) -1.5
I missed big on both of these teams week one, while St. Ides correctly noted that Cincy had a lot of chaos on their team in another one of his winning predictions. Maybe it’s because of Vince Young’s injury, and maybe it’s because I’ve spent the week in Cincinnati, but I’m taking the Bengals at home. I think that despite the chaos, Cincinnati is just the better team here.
Cincinnati 24 Tennessee 21
The Tennesee defense looked pretty awesome last week against the Jaguars. What the hell happened to Carson Palmer? Wasn't he once considered like a Top 5 QB in the league? Seems he's never been the same since that knee injury he suffered against the Steelers in the playoffs. The Vince Young story this week is a pretty odd one, and his time with the Titans could be running out. Their QB this week? Kerry "Tom" Collins. The Titans run more than pass anyways, so I'm going to stick with them. Titans 20, Bengals 17.
Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1) -3.5
So I was right about the Raiders: Javon Walker was the great player from several years ago who the Raiders went and got in the off season, and although he gets his first start this week, it’s not nearly enough to make a difference. What a friggin ass whopin’ Denver laid out on them last Monday. It’s going to be another lost season for Al Davis, whose fans have taken to wearing tee shirts that read “Keep Kiffin, Fire Al”. Kansas City and Damon Huard kept it close against the Patriots last week, and should win easy at Arrowhead.
Chiefs 27 Raiders 13
Are the Chiefs better than we thought, hanging in there with the shell-shocked Pats last week? And the Raiders worse than we thought, getting blown out by the Broncos? Who knows. Who really cares. The Chiefs are pretty tough at home though. And the Raiders just might stink. Chiefs 24, Raiders 17.
New Orleans (1-0) at Washington (0-1) -0.5
The Washington Redskins are a poorly coached football team. Time after time last week when they needed x amount of yards for a first down, the play call was for a route that was x – 4 yards in length. Folks, that’s just poor coaching. At home this week will give the team a boost but until I see them play a well coached game I’m going against them. New Orleans is young and talented, and should get a road win.
New Orleans 20 Washington 17
I have to agree that former Seahawk legend Jim Zorn looked like a deer in headlights. Did I mention what a huge jump it is from QB coach to Head Coach? Not to mention that QB Jason Campbell might not be the best QB for the West Coast Offense. Anyways, I'll take the Saints. Saints 23, Skins 13.
NY Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1) +8.5
Another beat down is in the making for the Rams, who have no offense, no defense, and no head coach (Scott Linehan? Wtf?). The only thing going for the Rams is that god awful stadium they play in, which is loud and disruptive. I don’t think this will affect the Giants who don’t exactly run a precision offense (Run to Jacobs, run to Jacobs, throw to Burris). Meanwhile the Giants D is good enough to shut anyone down, and I’m starting to think that they’re really building something special in New Jersey.
Giants 23 Rams 13
While I'm not quite sold on the Giants this year (their offense did look pretty bad in the second half last week), the Rams are brutal. Thankfully, they're in the NFC West! Giants 23, Rams 10.
Buffalo (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1) -5.5
I’ve got to say, I was totally blindsided by the Bills last week until St. Ides pointed out that 14 of their points came off a fake field goal and a fumble recovery. This week won’t be so forgiving against the Jags on the road. After watching the films of last week’s games (ahem), I realized that it took a stellar effort from the Tennessee Titan’s D to win against Jacksonville. This week the Jags take it to the Bills by a TD.
Jacksonville 27 Buffalo 20
Don't forget another 7 points came on a punt return. So basically the Seattle special teams gave up 21 of the 34 points. The Jags have lost their two starting guards. Which means former Jags star Marcus Stroud is going to be in their backfield all day long. And, dare I say, is David Garrard finally coming down to earth? He threw two picks last week, and he had something like 5 all of last season. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Bills pull off the minor upset. Bills 24, Jags 23.
Green Bay (1-0) at Detroit (0-1) +3.5
In many ways Green Bay looked like a dominant team on Monday night against the Vikqueens. Aaron Rodgers was poised and unflappable, made difficult throws and smart decisions, and looked like a worthy successor to the great Brett Favre. In other ways they looked sloppy. Penalties for illegal formations, o-linemen downfield, pass interference calls. It all made for a closer score than it should have been. The Lions have an improved receiving corp: I mean it’s the same guys, but they are all a year better. If Charles Woodson doesn’t play, this could be a problem. Last year, the Pack had no problems guarding Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, and I’m betting that this year won’t be much different.
Packers 31 Lions 17
That offensive lineman downfield call was killer. The announcers made a good point though, it seemed like it wasn't really their fault as Rodgers and the WR made a hot read and changed the play at the line. The Lions must be pretty embarassed getting beaten by a rookie QB in his first game no a dreadful team. It seems their run defense is pretty horrible. Packers 27, Lions 20.
Indianapolis (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1) +1.5
Question: which team is more likely to start the season 0-2: the Colts or the Vikings? That’s too easy. So why is this game only separated by 1.5? I think that Peyton Manning and the rest of Indy looked a bit shell shocked against the Bears, with Manning playing like a guy who hadn’t practiced much in the preseason. Oh right, he didn’t. With another week of practice under their belts the Colts shouldn’t have too much trouble against the Vikings, who have a good running game, a good D line and not much else.
Colts 31 Vikings 20
The Colts Oline is actually a bit depleted with injuries and losses to free agency. And the Vikings defensive line is pretty good. Still, Tavaris Jackson has Vikings fans dreaming about the glory days of Daunte Culpepper. It's a shame Culpepper was never the same player again after that nasty knee injury. A lot of people picked both this teams to be easy playoff teams. One will be 0-2 and start to panic. Yep, that sounds like a typical Vikings season. Colts 28, Vikings 20.
Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0) -3.5
If the Bills were surprising last week, the Bears were downright astonishing. Beating Indy in Indy without an offense is in no uncertain terms flabbergasting. If they can do to Indy, they can do it to the Panthers who by the way also made me look bad last week. If the over under is 39 or above, take the under. Oh and take the Bears.
Bears 20 Panthers 17
Yeah, I was pretty shocked by the Bears too. But it's only a matter of time before Kyle Orton kills them. And I think that time is now. The Panthers must be feeling pretty good about beating the Super Bowl Contender Chargers in San Diego without Steve Smith. I think they'll bring the Bears back down to reality. Panthers 20, Bears 13.
Atlanta (1-0) at Tampa Bay (0-1) -8.5
Matt Ryan showed me something last week. A good rookie QB out of Boston College, he (like A-Rodg) showed a lot of poise in Atlanta’s win. This week against a Tampa D won’t be so easy. Look for Jon Gruden to play a deceptive D that will screw with the kid’s head. Brian Greise gets the nod at QB for Tampa, replacing the injured Jeff Garcia who is out with a torn sphincter.
Tampa 20 Atlanta 13
Oh man, poor Garcia can't have a week go by without a joke. Word out of Tampa is actually that him and Gruden are on the outs. Garcia says he's healthy enough to practice, Gruden says he isn't. I don't have a whole lot of faith in Griese. I'll take the points, just cause that's a lot. Bucs 23, Falcons 17.
San Francisco (0-1) at Seattle (0-1) -7.5
Last week should have been a wake-up call for the disappointing Seahawks, and there’s nothing like the Niners on your home field to get you back on track. The lightening quick Seahawk D should handle Frank Gore with ease, and beyond Frank Gore what can San Francisco throw at you? Seattle is a very good team that should win the division. This week they’ll be out to make a statement.
Seattle 37 San Francisco 10
Seattle injury update: Starting WR Nate Burlseon? Out for the season. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram? Still a few weeks away. #4 WR Ben Obomanu? Out for the season. Seattle is down to their 5th and 6th options at WR. It's so bad that backup QB Seneca Wallace will likely start at WR. The next two? Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne. Who? Exactly. Also out for the season, starting RG Robb Sims. And starting RB Mo Morris is out 2-4 weeks. So yeah, their offense is in shambles. Like Samichlaus said, nothing like the Niners at home to get you back on track. The Seattle defense really only gave up 20 of the 34 points last week, and another TD was on a short field thanks to a fumbled kickoff. They're much better at home with the noise behind them. Still, I don't see how Hasselbeck is going to get ANY passing game going with no WRs. No passing game means 8 in the box means no running game. The week 4 bye week can't come soon enough for this injury ravaged team. Niners 16, Seahawks 10.
New England (1-0) at NY Jets (1-0) -1.5
The Jets are licking their chops over this one as former high school standout Matt Cassel takes the field against Broadway Brett and his new “Gang Green”. But hold on folks: is that the same New England D out there? Is that Randy Moss still catching passes? Is Lawrence Maroney still running the ball? I absolutely agree that Tom Brady is the absolute difference maker on this team, and his loss is tremendous. But don’t count this team out. Brady was the difference between 16 – 0 and say 12 – 4. Have the Jets done enough in the off season to narrow that gap? Remember: Brett’s still learning the O. I like the Pats in a close game
New England 24 New York 23
It's almost a shame we'll miss out on two Favre-Brady shootouts this season. But I agree with my colleague completely. The only thing I'll add is that the Pats pass defense is a bit suspect, and that might bite them in the heiney against a wiley vet like Favre. Patriots 24, Jets 23.
Miami (0-1) at Arizona (1-0) -6.5
Miami goes on the road against Arizona, and although the Dolphins showed they can keep a game close they haven’t showed they can win. Arizona showed they could win… against the Niners. My ultimate fantasy team of Samichlaus, St. Ides, Mrs. Samichlaus, Anonymous, and a few guys St. Ides and I used to work with could match up well against the Niners. I’ll go with the Dolphins and the points.
Arizona 24 Miami 20
I'm going to take the points too. Could this finally be the Cardinals year though? Their defense isn't bad, and they have two awesome receivers. You got to think that at some point a defense is going to catch up to Kurt Warner and just clobber him though. Maybe Jason Taylor does that this week. Oh wait, they traded him. Nevermind. Warner lives to see another week. Cardinals 20, Dolphins 16.
San Diego (0-1) at Denver (1-0) +1.5
Denver looked reeeaalll good last week, and I have to be honest here: I have no idea what went on with San Diego other than it says here they lost. I’ll go with Denver at home because they’re real good at home.
Denver 27 San Diego 20
Wouldn't it be great if both the Chargers and Colts started 0-2? I'm not quite sold on the Broncos, but the home field advantage is decent and I don't like the Chargers. Broncos 23, Chargers 20.
Baltimore (1-0) at Houston (0-1) -4.5
So the Joe Flacco era started with a bang huh? It just goes to show you: I don’t know what it goes to show. I’m also not sure what affect Hurricane Ike is going to have on that game, but I hear that Houston officials are frantically painting over the picture of Tina Turner that covers the Astrodome. With that non factual and completely inaccurate joke out of the way, I’ll take the Ravens and the points:
Houston 20 Baltimore 17
Hahah. I think they've officially moved this game to Monday Night. But it won't be on DirecTV because of the contract between ESPN and the league, they can't compete on another channel. There's some push to get ESPN to allow it anyways, being that a natural disaster is the cause of the move, but we'll see. Anyways... I liked the Texas to start the year... Now? Not so much. I'll take the points. Texans 17, Ravens 16.
Pittsburgh (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1) +5.5
There’s some sort of a rivalry between these two cities I hear. Pittsburgh dominated last week. Big Ben was lights out and “Fast” Willie Parker was, well, fast. Meanwhile Cleveland got the shit kicked out of them at Dallas. I’m going to bet that Pittsburgh can win by a TD on the road.
Pittsburgh 24 Cleveland 17
As much as I hate to admit it, the Steelers might be the favorite in the AFC now that Brady's down. Poor Dereck Anderson could be hearing the footsteps of Brady Quinn after a few more bad performances. Steelers 30, Browns 20.
Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0) -6.5
Philadelphia and Dallas both played well in their openers and a healthy Donovan McNabb will keep this game close. I don’t know about Dallas: maybe they are as good as all the hype. Maybe Wade Phillips is really the right coach for that team. I think the Cowboys win, but the Eagles keep it under a TD
Dallas 31 Philly 27
I really don't think the Cowboys are as good as all the hype. Plus Marion Barber is banged up a bit. Philly has a pretty decent defense and could possibly maybe shut down the Dallas passing attack. That's a lot of points for a divisional rivalry. Eagles 24, Cowboys 23.
Last Week:
Samichlaus: 10-6
St.Ides: 7-9
Tennessee (1-0) at Cincinnati (0-1) -1.5
I missed big on both of these teams week one, while St. Ides correctly noted that Cincy had a lot of chaos on their team in another one of his winning predictions. Maybe it’s because of Vince Young’s injury, and maybe it’s because I’ve spent the week in Cincinnati, but I’m taking the Bengals at home. I think that despite the chaos, Cincinnati is just the better team here.
Cincinnati 24 Tennessee 21
The Tennesee defense looked pretty awesome last week against the Jaguars. What the hell happened to Carson Palmer? Wasn't he once considered like a Top 5 QB in the league? Seems he's never been the same since that knee injury he suffered against the Steelers in the playoffs. The Vince Young story this week is a pretty odd one, and his time with the Titans could be running out. Their QB this week? Kerry "Tom" Collins. The Titans run more than pass anyways, so I'm going to stick with them. Titans 20, Bengals 17.
Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1) -3.5
So I was right about the Raiders: Javon Walker was the great player from several years ago who the Raiders went and got in the off season, and although he gets his first start this week, it’s not nearly enough to make a difference. What a friggin ass whopin’ Denver laid out on them last Monday. It’s going to be another lost season for Al Davis, whose fans have taken to wearing tee shirts that read “Keep Kiffin, Fire Al”. Kansas City and Damon Huard kept it close against the Patriots last week, and should win easy at Arrowhead.
Chiefs 27 Raiders 13
Are the Chiefs better than we thought, hanging in there with the shell-shocked Pats last week? And the Raiders worse than we thought, getting blown out by the Broncos? Who knows. Who really cares. The Chiefs are pretty tough at home though. And the Raiders just might stink. Chiefs 24, Raiders 17.
New Orleans (1-0) at Washington (0-1) -0.5
The Washington Redskins are a poorly coached football team. Time after time last week when they needed x amount of yards for a first down, the play call was for a route that was x – 4 yards in length. Folks, that’s just poor coaching. At home this week will give the team a boost but until I see them play a well coached game I’m going against them. New Orleans is young and talented, and should get a road win.
New Orleans 20 Washington 17
I have to agree that former Seahawk legend Jim Zorn looked like a deer in headlights. Did I mention what a huge jump it is from QB coach to Head Coach? Not to mention that QB Jason Campbell might not be the best QB for the West Coast Offense. Anyways, I'll take the Saints. Saints 23, Skins 13.
NY Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1) +8.5
Another beat down is in the making for the Rams, who have no offense, no defense, and no head coach (Scott Linehan? Wtf?). The only thing going for the Rams is that god awful stadium they play in, which is loud and disruptive. I don’t think this will affect the Giants who don’t exactly run a precision offense (Run to Jacobs, run to Jacobs, throw to Burris). Meanwhile the Giants D is good enough to shut anyone down, and I’m starting to think that they’re really building something special in New Jersey.
Giants 23 Rams 13
While I'm not quite sold on the Giants this year (their offense did look pretty bad in the second half last week), the Rams are brutal. Thankfully, they're in the NFC West! Giants 23, Rams 10.
Buffalo (1-0) at Jacksonville (0-1) -5.5
I’ve got to say, I was totally blindsided by the Bills last week until St. Ides pointed out that 14 of their points came off a fake field goal and a fumble recovery. This week won’t be so forgiving against the Jags on the road. After watching the films of last week’s games (ahem), I realized that it took a stellar effort from the Tennessee Titan’s D to win against Jacksonville. This week the Jags take it to the Bills by a TD.
Jacksonville 27 Buffalo 20
Don't forget another 7 points came on a punt return. So basically the Seattle special teams gave up 21 of the 34 points. The Jags have lost their two starting guards. Which means former Jags star Marcus Stroud is going to be in their backfield all day long. And, dare I say, is David Garrard finally coming down to earth? He threw two picks last week, and he had something like 5 all of last season. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Bills pull off the minor upset. Bills 24, Jags 23.
Green Bay (1-0) at Detroit (0-1) +3.5
In many ways Green Bay looked like a dominant team on Monday night against the Vikqueens. Aaron Rodgers was poised and unflappable, made difficult throws and smart decisions, and looked like a worthy successor to the great Brett Favre. In other ways they looked sloppy. Penalties for illegal formations, o-linemen downfield, pass interference calls. It all made for a closer score than it should have been. The Lions have an improved receiving corp: I mean it’s the same guys, but they are all a year better. If Charles Woodson doesn’t play, this could be a problem. Last year, the Pack had no problems guarding Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, and I’m betting that this year won’t be much different.
Packers 31 Lions 17
That offensive lineman downfield call was killer. The announcers made a good point though, it seemed like it wasn't really their fault as Rodgers and the WR made a hot read and changed the play at the line. The Lions must be pretty embarassed getting beaten by a rookie QB in his first game no a dreadful team. It seems their run defense is pretty horrible. Packers 27, Lions 20.
Indianapolis (0-1) at Minnesota (0-1) +1.5
Question: which team is more likely to start the season 0-2: the Colts or the Vikings? That’s too easy. So why is this game only separated by 1.5? I think that Peyton Manning and the rest of Indy looked a bit shell shocked against the Bears, with Manning playing like a guy who hadn’t practiced much in the preseason. Oh right, he didn’t. With another week of practice under their belts the Colts shouldn’t have too much trouble against the Vikings, who have a good running game, a good D line and not much else.
Colts 31 Vikings 20
The Colts Oline is actually a bit depleted with injuries and losses to free agency. And the Vikings defensive line is pretty good. Still, Tavaris Jackson has Vikings fans dreaming about the glory days of Daunte Culpepper. It's a shame Culpepper was never the same player again after that nasty knee injury. A lot of people picked both this teams to be easy playoff teams. One will be 0-2 and start to panic. Yep, that sounds like a typical Vikings season. Colts 28, Vikings 20.
Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0) -3.5
If the Bills were surprising last week, the Bears were downright astonishing. Beating Indy in Indy without an offense is in no uncertain terms flabbergasting. If they can do to Indy, they can do it to the Panthers who by the way also made me look bad last week. If the over under is 39 or above, take the under. Oh and take the Bears.
Bears 20 Panthers 17
Yeah, I was pretty shocked by the Bears too. But it's only a matter of time before Kyle Orton kills them. And I think that time is now. The Panthers must be feeling pretty good about beating the Super Bowl Contender Chargers in San Diego without Steve Smith. I think they'll bring the Bears back down to reality. Panthers 20, Bears 13.
Atlanta (1-0) at Tampa Bay (0-1) -8.5
Matt Ryan showed me something last week. A good rookie QB out of Boston College, he (like A-Rodg) showed a lot of poise in Atlanta’s win. This week against a Tampa D won’t be so easy. Look for Jon Gruden to play a deceptive D that will screw with the kid’s head. Brian Greise gets the nod at QB for Tampa, replacing the injured Jeff Garcia who is out with a torn sphincter.
Tampa 20 Atlanta 13
Oh man, poor Garcia can't have a week go by without a joke. Word out of Tampa is actually that him and Gruden are on the outs. Garcia says he's healthy enough to practice, Gruden says he isn't. I don't have a whole lot of faith in Griese. I'll take the points, just cause that's a lot. Bucs 23, Falcons 17.
San Francisco (0-1) at Seattle (0-1) -7.5
Last week should have been a wake-up call for the disappointing Seahawks, and there’s nothing like the Niners on your home field to get you back on track. The lightening quick Seahawk D should handle Frank Gore with ease, and beyond Frank Gore what can San Francisco throw at you? Seattle is a very good team that should win the division. This week they’ll be out to make a statement.
Seattle 37 San Francisco 10
Seattle injury update: Starting WR Nate Burlseon? Out for the season. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram? Still a few weeks away. #4 WR Ben Obomanu? Out for the season. Seattle is down to their 5th and 6th options at WR. It's so bad that backup QB Seneca Wallace will likely start at WR. The next two? Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne. Who? Exactly. Also out for the season, starting RG Robb Sims. And starting RB Mo Morris is out 2-4 weeks. So yeah, their offense is in shambles. Like Samichlaus said, nothing like the Niners at home to get you back on track. The Seattle defense really only gave up 20 of the 34 points last week, and another TD was on a short field thanks to a fumbled kickoff. They're much better at home with the noise behind them. Still, I don't see how Hasselbeck is going to get ANY passing game going with no WRs. No passing game means 8 in the box means no running game. The week 4 bye week can't come soon enough for this injury ravaged team. Niners 16, Seahawks 10.
New England (1-0) at NY Jets (1-0) -1.5
The Jets are licking their chops over this one as former high school standout Matt Cassel takes the field against Broadway Brett and his new “Gang Green”. But hold on folks: is that the same New England D out there? Is that Randy Moss still catching passes? Is Lawrence Maroney still running the ball? I absolutely agree that Tom Brady is the absolute difference maker on this team, and his loss is tremendous. But don’t count this team out. Brady was the difference between 16 – 0 and say 12 – 4. Have the Jets done enough in the off season to narrow that gap? Remember: Brett’s still learning the O. I like the Pats in a close game
New England 24 New York 23
It's almost a shame we'll miss out on two Favre-Brady shootouts this season. But I agree with my colleague completely. The only thing I'll add is that the Pats pass defense is a bit suspect, and that might bite them in the heiney against a wiley vet like Favre. Patriots 24, Jets 23.
Miami (0-1) at Arizona (1-0) -6.5
Miami goes on the road against Arizona, and although the Dolphins showed they can keep a game close they haven’t showed they can win. Arizona showed they could win… against the Niners. My ultimate fantasy team of Samichlaus, St. Ides, Mrs. Samichlaus, Anonymous, and a few guys St. Ides and I used to work with could match up well against the Niners. I’ll go with the Dolphins and the points.
Arizona 24 Miami 20
I'm going to take the points too. Could this finally be the Cardinals year though? Their defense isn't bad, and they have two awesome receivers. You got to think that at some point a defense is going to catch up to Kurt Warner and just clobber him though. Maybe Jason Taylor does that this week. Oh wait, they traded him. Nevermind. Warner lives to see another week. Cardinals 20, Dolphins 16.
San Diego (0-1) at Denver (1-0) +1.5
Denver looked reeeaalll good last week, and I have to be honest here: I have no idea what went on with San Diego other than it says here they lost. I’ll go with Denver at home because they’re real good at home.
Denver 27 San Diego 20
Wouldn't it be great if both the Chargers and Colts started 0-2? I'm not quite sold on the Broncos, but the home field advantage is decent and I don't like the Chargers. Broncos 23, Chargers 20.
Baltimore (1-0) at Houston (0-1) -4.5
So the Joe Flacco era started with a bang huh? It just goes to show you: I don’t know what it goes to show. I’m also not sure what affect Hurricane Ike is going to have on that game, but I hear that Houston officials are frantically painting over the picture of Tina Turner that covers the Astrodome. With that non factual and completely inaccurate joke out of the way, I’ll take the Ravens and the points:
Houston 20 Baltimore 17
Hahah. I think they've officially moved this game to Monday Night. But it won't be on DirecTV because of the contract between ESPN and the league, they can't compete on another channel. There's some push to get ESPN to allow it anyways, being that a natural disaster is the cause of the move, but we'll see. Anyways... I liked the Texas to start the year... Now? Not so much. I'll take the points. Texans 17, Ravens 16.
Pittsburgh (1-0) at Cleveland (0-1) +5.5
There’s some sort of a rivalry between these two cities I hear. Pittsburgh dominated last week. Big Ben was lights out and “Fast” Willie Parker was, well, fast. Meanwhile Cleveland got the shit kicked out of them at Dallas. I’m going to bet that Pittsburgh can win by a TD on the road.
Pittsburgh 24 Cleveland 17
As much as I hate to admit it, the Steelers might be the favorite in the AFC now that Brady's down. Poor Dereck Anderson could be hearing the footsteps of Brady Quinn after a few more bad performances. Steelers 30, Browns 20.
Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0) -6.5
Philadelphia and Dallas both played well in their openers and a healthy Donovan McNabb will keep this game close. I don’t know about Dallas: maybe they are as good as all the hype. Maybe Wade Phillips is really the right coach for that team. I think the Cowboys win, but the Eagles keep it under a TD
Dallas 31 Philly 27
I really don't think the Cowboys are as good as all the hype. Plus Marion Barber is banged up a bit. Philly has a pretty decent defense and could possibly maybe shut down the Dallas passing attack. That's a lot of points for a divisional rivalry. Eagles 24, Cowboys 23.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Annnnddddd... We're Back! Week One Predictions!
Don't get all emotional and crap, but we're back! We'll spare you a long intro, and cut right to the chase.
Washington at NY Giants -3.5
Well , we screwed the pooch on this one, but I can honestly say that it is 7:04 PM on Thursday, I’m sitting at a kiosk at O’Hare and I have no idea about this game. So with that said, I would have taken the Giants and the points: Giants 27 Skins 10 (I looovvee the under)
Yeah, I'm writing this on Friday morning, but I would have taken the Giants too. I'll award a win on this one as a "Welcome Back SBS!" present to both of us! The Giants didn't look great, but poor Seattle great Jim Zorn looked a bit overwhelmed in his first game as a head coach. It's a pretty big jump from QB Coach to Head Coach.
St. Louis at Philadelphia -7.5
OK, here we go for real. St. Louis is a fragment of the team it once was, and besides: they were never real good on the road anyways. Philly is a hungry team, and with the home goon advantage they win this one with ease. To quote Bill Parcells “Who ever named this the city of brotherly love ain’t never been here. I’ll tell you what it is, it’s a fucking banana republic.”
Philly 31 St Louis 20
I'm going to have to agree on this one. Although the Rams were totally ravaged by injuries last year and they've added some good young players to their defensive line, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are getting up there in years. A lot of people like the Eagles to come back strong this year. Eagles 27, Rams 16.
Seattle at Buffalo -0.5
Why is this game at only half a point? Do the oddsmakers have that little faith in Seattle? I mean Christ, don’t they read this blog? Oh right, we haven’t been blogging lately. I’ve been threatening for years that I was going to start posting St. Ides’s emails. You readers would love them. They’re short, concise, well written and intelligent. In other words nothing like our posts. I know the Bills are tough at home, but I just don’t see it being this close. Tell you what: I’ll give the odds makers their props. Seattle wins and covers
Seattle 24 Buffalo 21
There's a prevailing thought that Seattle is awful on the road in 1pm ET starts. Their record the past two years? 5-4. And two of those losses were last year to Carolina and Atlanta with the division wrapped up and second stringers mostly playing. Buffalo's Pro Bowl LT is still holding out, and they just lost one of their starting LBs for the year. (No clue if he was any good, but he was a starter.) The Seattle running game has been totally revamped, the most important part being new offensive line coach Mike Solari. His previous gig? Chiefs offensive coordinator. Okay, bad example. But before that he was the KC offensive line coach, and his lines blew open gaping holes for the likes of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. He was so good, they gave him the promotion to O-Coordinator. Where he flamed out, and was fired after one year. But the talent around him last year pretty much sucked. Anyways, yeah, Seattle WILL have a solid running game this year, bank it. Oh and Hasselbeck is 5-2 on opening day, including last year at Tampa Bay in a 1pm start against a team that made the playoffs.
Seattle 23, Buffalo 10.
NY Jets at Miami +3.5
Brett the Jet. I still can’t get used to it. I swear I’m going to drive up to Green Bay one evening and toilet paper Ted Thompson’s house. Fucking ass wipe. And yes, don’t worry, I’ll be doing a blog on the whole Favre thing soon so just be patient. Not sure if it’s going to happen, but my father in law may be coming over Sunday to watch this one. Readers of our blog know that he’s a die-hard Dolphins fan, so I thought he’d might like to watch his boys start the season right where they left off: losing. Honestly I think the ‘Fins are going to have a better season than last year, and that prediction has nothing to do with Dad’s ample gun collection. But the Jets and my quarterback are going to do some special things. Just watch.
Jets 31 Dolphins 24
I'm not quite sold on the Jets just yet. Their WR depth is not nearly as good as Green Bay. Their running game and defense probably isn't as good either. Plus, don't discount the revenge factor for Chad Pennington, who will be starting for the Fins. Considering the shitty records of both these teams last year, this could be one of the best games of the weekend. I'll take the home dog. Dolphins 27, Jets 26.
Kansas City at New England -16.5
This one almost isn’t fair. St. Ides’s favorite head coach Herm Edwards draws a tough matchup while New England is primed for another year of dominance. That’s a very good football team playing a pretty bad one. The only thing is (here we go) that point spread. How many times last year did I take the points against New England and get burned. I’ll tell you what: Brady hasn’t thrown a pass in pre-season and that’s got to cost him something. I think K.C. will keep it close for a half but will eventually lose. The question is how close? I’m going to say close enough to cover two TD’s.
New England 27 Kansas City 13
I'm taking the Pats and the points. I don't think the Chiefs have 13 points in them. In fact, I'm going to call a shutout on this one. Patriots 23, Chiefs 0.
Detroit at Atlanta +2.5
Wowsers. Week one SBS Stinker is a candidate for stinker of the year. Thank God we’re getting it out of the way quick. Detroit is a terrible team and Atlanta is still dealing with the curse of Vick. I’ll give ‘em the home team dog rule here.
Atlanta 20 Detroit 17
Yeah, this game blows. The only intrigue here (and I'm grasping at straws) is the debut at QB for rookie Matt Ryan. Oh, and I read an interesting tidbit recently about Jon Kitna. I forget where and what the exact details are, but apparently if he throws for 4,000 yards this season (something most people expect him to do), he'll be in something like the top 15 all-time QBs as far as yardage goes. Jon Frickin Kitna. Somehow I don't think that automatically punches his ticket to Dayton. I'll actually take the Lions though. Lions 24, Falcons 20.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans -3.5
New Orleans the city dodged a close one last week, but New Orleans the team won’t be so lucky. I’m not sure why I like Tampa: maybe because I buy into all the Gruden hype, or maybe it’s because he’s really a better head coach, or maybe it’s because I never bought into the Reggie Bush hype. Fuck if I know, I really haven’t followed either of these teams in the off season. I couldn’t even tell you who their QB’s are… wait, isn’t Jeff Garcia on Tampa Bay? OK, I changed my mind.
New Orleans 28 Tampa Bay 17
You know, for all the jokes we make about Garcia, he actually has a decent track record. But yeah, I like the Saints in this one too. Saints 24, Bucs 17.
Cincinnati at Baltimore +1.5
Here are two more teams I know very little about. Honestly I just wish my aircraft would show up so I can wrap these up and finish them in the morning. OK… the Ravens are starting a rookie QB named Joe Flaco (or Flacco? I’m too lazy to look it up). That’s a bad thing (the rookie, not my lazyness). As mediocre as these two teams are I won’t bet on a rookie QB in his first NFL start. Unless his name was Favre, but that was a long time ago. Forget what I said earlier about the home dog.
Bengals 20 Baltimore 17
It's Flacco. And if you're not going to bet on a rookie QB in his first NFL start, you better go back and change your Falcons pick. Did you see the nonsense about Chad Johnson officially and legally changing his last name to "Ocho Cinco" and that will be on the back of his jersey? Too bad T.J. Whosyourmomma is the bigger receiving threat at this point. Anyways, even with "offensive genius" Brian Billick out of Baltimore, their offense will suck and their defense isn't getting any younger. And I believe Ed Reed is out with an injury. I'll take Cinci and a slightly rejuvenated Carson Palmer. Bengals 23, Ravens 13.
Jacksonville at Tennessee +2.5
I watched Tennessee’s first team play Green Bay’s scrubs in their last preseason game and almost lose. The Packers second team D held the Titans to three field goals in three quarters and you know what? Vince Young was awful. Like Vick awful. He could run his ass off, but ask him to make an accurate throw and chances are he couldn’t do it. I left that game thinking “no way do I bet on this team week one”.
Jags 24 Titans 20
I'm not sold at all on Vince Young. But then again, I'm not sold on David Garrad either. The Titans defense is actually somewhat solid, so I'll say this one stays pretty low scoring, and I'll take the points. A lot of "experts" are predicting huge things for the Jaguars this year, some even saying they're a Super Bowl contender. Which means they'll probably suck. Jaguars 17, Titans 16.
Houston at Pittsburgh -6.5
The Steelers at home and healthy should have it easy against the constantly building Texans. I like Matt Shaub, the UVA star turned Texans QB but he’s got a long way to go. His team just doesn’t have the talent to match up with a gritty Pittsburgh squad.
Steelers 24 Texans 13
I'm going to take the points. The Texans D is starting to show some signs of being respectable. And I think the Steelers might just take them a bit lightly. I think the Steelers coach could be in for some rough times if Pittsburgh gets off to a slow start this season. Steelers 23, Texans 21.
Carolina at San Diego -8.5
Another tough first week draw as an east coast team heads west against a talented Charger team. The Chargers started slow last season and it cost them. Don’t think for a minute they’ll make the same mistake of complacency twice. 8.5 points may seem a lot against a John Fox defense, but really Fox isn’t such a defensive mastermind. Defense is easy when you’ve got Michael Strahan in his prime.
Bolts 27 Cats 17
The more I see them, the more I dislike the Chargers, mostly because of the attitudes of Tomlinson, Rivers, and Merriman. Merriman is playing despite two torn ligaments in his knee, against the advice of every doctor he's visited. Maybe this game is worth watching just to see if his lower leg become completely detached. Chargers 23, Panthers 10.
Dallas at Cleveland +5.5
Has anyone been watching “Hard Knocks” on HBO with the Cowboys? It’s been really cool seeing T.O. and Romo and all the rest of America’s team frolic through a Wade Phillips training camp. To the Cowboys, it’s Super Bowl or bust this year, and as long as Tony Romo has Terrell Owens to throw the ball to the Cowboys will win games in spite of themselves. This game will be close. I’m going to take the Cowboys to win but not cover. Don’t be surprised if Cleveland and Derek Anderson win it outright
Cowboys 23 Browns 20
Sadly, I don't have HBO. I look forward to a full season of Cowboy and Romo hype, only to watch them collapse in their first playoff game yet again. I have Jason Witten on my fantasy team, so I can cheer for him at least. Slight tangent: Seattle will be in Dallas this year for the Thanksgiving game. Hopefully the game has big NFC implications at that point. Cowboys 27, Browns 23.
Arizona at San Francisco +2.5
Uggh.
Arizona 20 San Francisco 17
I'll offer slightly more: Kurt Warner is starting at QB for the Cardinals, and Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator in San Fran. Martz tries to make J.T. O'Sullivan (no, that's not the seedy Irish bar that serves greasy bar food on Main Street) his next Kurt Warner. The Niners just don't have the personnel to make Martz's offense work. In other words, they have almost no talent. Cardinals 27, Niners 17.
Chicago at Indianapolis -9.5
I’ve gained a new respect for Bears fans since I’ve been working in Chicago. One of them said to me the other day “Just once in my life, before I die, I want to see a real quarterback play for the Bears. Fucking Sid Luckman was it”. Luckman played in the 1940s I think. Meanwhile Indy, like New England hasn’t practiced with their starting quarterback. However Indy, like New England, has a god-like QB and Indy, unlike New England, doesn’t have to cover two TDs.
Indy 27 Chi-town 13
Yeah, I'll take the Colts at home. How long before the Bears go from Kyle Orton back to Rex Grossman? Over/under is Week 4.
Colts 24, Bears 9.
Minnesota at Green Bay -2.5
Where to begin? A young Packer team with an inexperienced and fragile quarterback; several starters hurt; A Viking team that remembers the 34 – 0 demolition they took the last time the teams played; a healthy Adrian Peterson. This game smells like an upset in the making, but here’s how the Pack wins: play 8 in the box and dare Vikings QB Tavaras Jackson to beat you with his arm. He can’t. The Packers are a talented team, and should be able to overcome all the obstacles their GM has placed before them. Packers win one for A-Rodg…
Packers 30 Vikings 24
That's pretty much how I see it too. Throw in that Pro Bowl LT Brian McKinnie is suspended the first four games for the Vikes, and Green Bay ought to get decent penetration. I'm ripping this off from somewhere, and I don't remember where, but considering the MNF stage, the replacing Favre angle, and a divisional opponent, Aaron Rodgers has more pressure on him than any American since JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Good one. I don't see the Vikings scoring 20. Packers 27, Vikings 17.
Denver at Oakland +2.5
I don’t know what Oakland did to improve during the off season but if I know Al Davis he probably signed some over the hill veterans who made a big play or two 7-12 years ago.
Denver 24 Oakland 20
Well, they drafted Darren McFadden, who some are hyping as this year's Adrian Peterson. And they signed Jevon Walker, who's part headcase and part broken kneees. This rivalry ain't what it used to be. Broncos 20, Raiders 17.
Washington at NY Giants -3.5
Well , we screwed the pooch on this one, but I can honestly say that it is 7:04 PM on Thursday, I’m sitting at a kiosk at O’Hare and I have no idea about this game. So with that said, I would have taken the Giants and the points: Giants 27 Skins 10 (I looovvee the under)
Yeah, I'm writing this on Friday morning, but I would have taken the Giants too. I'll award a win on this one as a "Welcome Back SBS!" present to both of us! The Giants didn't look great, but poor Seattle great Jim Zorn looked a bit overwhelmed in his first game as a head coach. It's a pretty big jump from QB Coach to Head Coach.
St. Louis at Philadelphia -7.5
OK, here we go for real. St. Louis is a fragment of the team it once was, and besides: they were never real good on the road anyways. Philly is a hungry team, and with the home goon advantage they win this one with ease. To quote Bill Parcells “Who ever named this the city of brotherly love ain’t never been here. I’ll tell you what it is, it’s a fucking banana republic.”
Philly 31 St Louis 20
I'm going to have to agree on this one. Although the Rams were totally ravaged by injuries last year and they've added some good young players to their defensive line, Marc Bulger and Torry Holt are getting up there in years. A lot of people like the Eagles to come back strong this year. Eagles 27, Rams 16.
Seattle at Buffalo -0.5
Why is this game at only half a point? Do the oddsmakers have that little faith in Seattle? I mean Christ, don’t they read this blog? Oh right, we haven’t been blogging lately. I’ve been threatening for years that I was going to start posting St. Ides’s emails. You readers would love them. They’re short, concise, well written and intelligent. In other words nothing like our posts. I know the Bills are tough at home, but I just don’t see it being this close. Tell you what: I’ll give the odds makers their props. Seattle wins and covers
Seattle 24 Buffalo 21
There's a prevailing thought that Seattle is awful on the road in 1pm ET starts. Their record the past two years? 5-4. And two of those losses were last year to Carolina and Atlanta with the division wrapped up and second stringers mostly playing. Buffalo's Pro Bowl LT is still holding out, and they just lost one of their starting LBs for the year. (No clue if he was any good, but he was a starter.) The Seattle running game has been totally revamped, the most important part being new offensive line coach Mike Solari. His previous gig? Chiefs offensive coordinator. Okay, bad example. But before that he was the KC offensive line coach, and his lines blew open gaping holes for the likes of Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. He was so good, they gave him the promotion to O-Coordinator. Where he flamed out, and was fired after one year. But the talent around him last year pretty much sucked. Anyways, yeah, Seattle WILL have a solid running game this year, bank it. Oh and Hasselbeck is 5-2 on opening day, including last year at Tampa Bay in a 1pm start against a team that made the playoffs.
Seattle 23, Buffalo 10.
NY Jets at Miami +3.5
Brett the Jet. I still can’t get used to it. I swear I’m going to drive up to Green Bay one evening and toilet paper Ted Thompson’s house. Fucking ass wipe. And yes, don’t worry, I’ll be doing a blog on the whole Favre thing soon so just be patient. Not sure if it’s going to happen, but my father in law may be coming over Sunday to watch this one. Readers of our blog know that he’s a die-hard Dolphins fan, so I thought he’d might like to watch his boys start the season right where they left off: losing. Honestly I think the ‘Fins are going to have a better season than last year, and that prediction has nothing to do with Dad’s ample gun collection. But the Jets and my quarterback are going to do some special things. Just watch.
Jets 31 Dolphins 24
I'm not quite sold on the Jets just yet. Their WR depth is not nearly as good as Green Bay. Their running game and defense probably isn't as good either. Plus, don't discount the revenge factor for Chad Pennington, who will be starting for the Fins. Considering the shitty records of both these teams last year, this could be one of the best games of the weekend. I'll take the home dog. Dolphins 27, Jets 26.
Kansas City at New England -16.5
This one almost isn’t fair. St. Ides’s favorite head coach Herm Edwards draws a tough matchup while New England is primed for another year of dominance. That’s a very good football team playing a pretty bad one. The only thing is (here we go) that point spread. How many times last year did I take the points against New England and get burned. I’ll tell you what: Brady hasn’t thrown a pass in pre-season and that’s got to cost him something. I think K.C. will keep it close for a half but will eventually lose. The question is how close? I’m going to say close enough to cover two TD’s.
New England 27 Kansas City 13
I'm taking the Pats and the points. I don't think the Chiefs have 13 points in them. In fact, I'm going to call a shutout on this one. Patriots 23, Chiefs 0.
Detroit at Atlanta +2.5
Wowsers. Week one SBS Stinker is a candidate for stinker of the year. Thank God we’re getting it out of the way quick. Detroit is a terrible team and Atlanta is still dealing with the curse of Vick. I’ll give ‘em the home team dog rule here.
Atlanta 20 Detroit 17
Yeah, this game blows. The only intrigue here (and I'm grasping at straws) is the debut at QB for rookie Matt Ryan. Oh, and I read an interesting tidbit recently about Jon Kitna. I forget where and what the exact details are, but apparently if he throws for 4,000 yards this season (something most people expect him to do), he'll be in something like the top 15 all-time QBs as far as yardage goes. Jon Frickin Kitna. Somehow I don't think that automatically punches his ticket to Dayton. I'll actually take the Lions though. Lions 24, Falcons 20.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans -3.5
New Orleans the city dodged a close one last week, but New Orleans the team won’t be so lucky. I’m not sure why I like Tampa: maybe because I buy into all the Gruden hype, or maybe it’s because he’s really a better head coach, or maybe it’s because I never bought into the Reggie Bush hype. Fuck if I know, I really haven’t followed either of these teams in the off season. I couldn’t even tell you who their QB’s are… wait, isn’t Jeff Garcia on Tampa Bay? OK, I changed my mind.
New Orleans 28 Tampa Bay 17
You know, for all the jokes we make about Garcia, he actually has a decent track record. But yeah, I like the Saints in this one too. Saints 24, Bucs 17.
Cincinnati at Baltimore +1.5
Here are two more teams I know very little about. Honestly I just wish my aircraft would show up so I can wrap these up and finish them in the morning. OK… the Ravens are starting a rookie QB named Joe Flaco (or Flacco? I’m too lazy to look it up). That’s a bad thing (the rookie, not my lazyness). As mediocre as these two teams are I won’t bet on a rookie QB in his first NFL start. Unless his name was Favre, but that was a long time ago. Forget what I said earlier about the home dog.
Bengals 20 Baltimore 17
It's Flacco. And if you're not going to bet on a rookie QB in his first NFL start, you better go back and change your Falcons pick. Did you see the nonsense about Chad Johnson officially and legally changing his last name to "Ocho Cinco" and that will be on the back of his jersey? Too bad T.J. Whosyourmomma is the bigger receiving threat at this point. Anyways, even with "offensive genius" Brian Billick out of Baltimore, their offense will suck and their defense isn't getting any younger. And I believe Ed Reed is out with an injury. I'll take Cinci and a slightly rejuvenated Carson Palmer. Bengals 23, Ravens 13.
Jacksonville at Tennessee +2.5
I watched Tennessee’s first team play Green Bay’s scrubs in their last preseason game and almost lose. The Packers second team D held the Titans to three field goals in three quarters and you know what? Vince Young was awful. Like Vick awful. He could run his ass off, but ask him to make an accurate throw and chances are he couldn’t do it. I left that game thinking “no way do I bet on this team week one”.
Jags 24 Titans 20
I'm not sold at all on Vince Young. But then again, I'm not sold on David Garrad either. The Titans defense is actually somewhat solid, so I'll say this one stays pretty low scoring, and I'll take the points. A lot of "experts" are predicting huge things for the Jaguars this year, some even saying they're a Super Bowl contender. Which means they'll probably suck. Jaguars 17, Titans 16.
Houston at Pittsburgh -6.5
The Steelers at home and healthy should have it easy against the constantly building Texans. I like Matt Shaub, the UVA star turned Texans QB but he’s got a long way to go. His team just doesn’t have the talent to match up with a gritty Pittsburgh squad.
Steelers 24 Texans 13
I'm going to take the points. The Texans D is starting to show some signs of being respectable. And I think the Steelers might just take them a bit lightly. I think the Steelers coach could be in for some rough times if Pittsburgh gets off to a slow start this season. Steelers 23, Texans 21.
Carolina at San Diego -8.5
Another tough first week draw as an east coast team heads west against a talented Charger team. The Chargers started slow last season and it cost them. Don’t think for a minute they’ll make the same mistake of complacency twice. 8.5 points may seem a lot against a John Fox defense, but really Fox isn’t such a defensive mastermind. Defense is easy when you’ve got Michael Strahan in his prime.
Bolts 27 Cats 17
The more I see them, the more I dislike the Chargers, mostly because of the attitudes of Tomlinson, Rivers, and Merriman. Merriman is playing despite two torn ligaments in his knee, against the advice of every doctor he's visited. Maybe this game is worth watching just to see if his lower leg become completely detached. Chargers 23, Panthers 10.
Dallas at Cleveland +5.5
Has anyone been watching “Hard Knocks” on HBO with the Cowboys? It’s been really cool seeing T.O. and Romo and all the rest of America’s team frolic through a Wade Phillips training camp. To the Cowboys, it’s Super Bowl or bust this year, and as long as Tony Romo has Terrell Owens to throw the ball to the Cowboys will win games in spite of themselves. This game will be close. I’m going to take the Cowboys to win but not cover. Don’t be surprised if Cleveland and Derek Anderson win it outright
Cowboys 23 Browns 20
Sadly, I don't have HBO. I look forward to a full season of Cowboy and Romo hype, only to watch them collapse in their first playoff game yet again. I have Jason Witten on my fantasy team, so I can cheer for him at least. Slight tangent: Seattle will be in Dallas this year for the Thanksgiving game. Hopefully the game has big NFC implications at that point. Cowboys 27, Browns 23.
Arizona at San Francisco +2.5
Uggh.
Arizona 20 San Francisco 17
I'll offer slightly more: Kurt Warner is starting at QB for the Cardinals, and Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator in San Fran. Martz tries to make J.T. O'Sullivan (no, that's not the seedy Irish bar that serves greasy bar food on Main Street) his next Kurt Warner. The Niners just don't have the personnel to make Martz's offense work. In other words, they have almost no talent. Cardinals 27, Niners 17.
Chicago at Indianapolis -9.5
I’ve gained a new respect for Bears fans since I’ve been working in Chicago. One of them said to me the other day “Just once in my life, before I die, I want to see a real quarterback play for the Bears. Fucking Sid Luckman was it”. Luckman played in the 1940s I think. Meanwhile Indy, like New England hasn’t practiced with their starting quarterback. However Indy, like New England, has a god-like QB and Indy, unlike New England, doesn’t have to cover two TDs.
Indy 27 Chi-town 13
Yeah, I'll take the Colts at home. How long before the Bears go from Kyle Orton back to Rex Grossman? Over/under is Week 4.
Colts 24, Bears 9.
Minnesota at Green Bay -2.5
Where to begin? A young Packer team with an inexperienced and fragile quarterback; several starters hurt; A Viking team that remembers the 34 – 0 demolition they took the last time the teams played; a healthy Adrian Peterson. This game smells like an upset in the making, but here’s how the Pack wins: play 8 in the box and dare Vikings QB Tavaras Jackson to beat you with his arm. He can’t. The Packers are a talented team, and should be able to overcome all the obstacles their GM has placed before them. Packers win one for A-Rodg…
Packers 30 Vikings 24
That's pretty much how I see it too. Throw in that Pro Bowl LT Brian McKinnie is suspended the first four games for the Vikes, and Green Bay ought to get decent penetration. I'm ripping this off from somewhere, and I don't remember where, but considering the MNF stage, the replacing Favre angle, and a divisional opponent, Aaron Rodgers has more pressure on him than any American since JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Good one. I don't see the Vikings scoring 20. Packers 27, Vikings 17.
Denver at Oakland +2.5
I don’t know what Oakland did to improve during the off season but if I know Al Davis he probably signed some over the hill veterans who made a big play or two 7-12 years ago.
Denver 24 Oakland 20
Well, they drafted Darren McFadden, who some are hyping as this year's Adrian Peterson. And they signed Jevon Walker, who's part headcase and part broken kneees. This rivalry ain't what it used to be. Broncos 20, Raiders 17.
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