Week 3 Picks!

Okay, meeting over, here's the color-coding stuff and records from last week. I did a bit better...

Last Week:
St. Ides: 9-6
Samichlaus: 7-8

Overall:
Samichlaus: 17-14
St. Ides: 16-15

And now, the picks...

Cincinnati (0-2) at NY Giants (2-0) -13.5
What do you get when you take a bad team, send them on the road to play a good team with a serious D, and give ‘em almost a two touchdown head start? You get a sucker bet. I’m officially convinced: after losing two weeks in a row taking the Bungals, there’s no way I take them this week.
Giants 30 Bengals 10

I agree. Though a late garbage time TD might help the Bungles cover. Their offense is pretty bad and their defense is even worse. Giants 23, Bengals 6.

Arizona (2-0) at Washington (1-1) -3.5
St. Ides nailed it last week: this could be the Cardinals year. Going up against former Seahawk “great” Jim Zorn and his Redskins shouldn’t be a big issue. The Skins surprised me last week with a performance that showed maybe this Zorn guy might know a thing or two about being a head coach, but I don’t see the Skins winning this game. I really like the Cards and the points.
Arizona 20 Washington 17

Whoa whoa, slow down. Let's not go crazy. The Cardinals have beaten the Niners and Dolphins so far. Those teams combined for, what, about 5 wins last season? Long road trip for the Cardinals and I'm going to say this every week until it happens - Kurt Warner's lack of mobility is going to get him hurt. Jason Taylor might be just the person to do it. Skins 20, Cardinals 16.

Kansas City (0-2) at Atlanta (1-1) -5.5
So much for being tough at Arrowhead. The Chiefs won’t start winning until they’re 2-8 with no chance of making the playoffs. Just another Herm Edwards season: win when it doesn’t matter. Besides, there’s no way KC brings the kind of pressure Matt Ryan saw against the Bucs, who sacked the young QB 4 times. I like Atlanta by a ten spot.
Atlanta 27 Kansas City 17

The Chiefs may be the worst team in the league this year. It looks like some guy named Thigpen might be their starting QB this week. Another big day for Michael Turner. Falcons 24, Chiefs 16.

Tampa Bay (1-1) at Chicago (1-1) -3.5
With Devon Hester banged up, the Bears will be hard pressed to do anything to score this week. But the Bucs will be hard pressed to do anything either. Although Tommie Harris of the Bears has been limited in practice, look for him to start. This game will come down to which D can make more plays, and that D belongs to Chicago. I like the Bears in a close game
Chicago 15 Tampa Bay 10

I think it's safe to say John Gruden is officially off his rocker. First he tells Derrick Brooks he's under a gag order with the media regarding any hint about his injury. Then he starts Brian "How Am I Still In The NFL, Nevermind A Starter" Griese over Jeff "I'm Not Really Too Injured Too Play But I Am Gay" Garcia. And says Griese is the starter for the forseeable future. Now he's pissed off because WR Michael Clayton said he's ready to start for an injured Joey Galloway, flipping out because HE'S the head coach, and HE will decide who starts when. Sheesh. Anyways, it's just enough wackiness to think the Bears will hold at home. Bears 16, Bucs 10.

Carolina (2-0) at Minnesota (0-2) -3.5
This week St. Ides emailed me to announce the beginning of the Gus Frerotte era in Minnesota. Jeez. These guys are pretty desperate, and with Adrian Peterson nursing a hamstring injury again I ask: where is the offense going to come from? The Panthers have been surprisingly good. They’re playing smart D and winning games. I like them this week to win outright.
Caroline 24 Minnesota 23

Yeah, I like the Panthers too. They're 2-0 and that was without Steve Smith. Now Smith is back, and I'm sure he's fired up. Maybe this time he can direct some of that passion at the opponent instead of his teammates. I'm enjoying watching the Vikings struggle, especially since they were a popular Super Bowl pick with the "real media" in the offseason. And that has nothing to do with the fact they stole Steve Hutchinson from Seattle. Okay, it does. Fuck the Vikings. Panthers 17, Vikings 16.

Miami (0-2) at New England (2-0) -12.5
I heard some Dolphin this week mouthing off about “No Tom Brady, that’s a win for us”. Bad move. If the Patriots needed any further motivation to win this game big, that was it. I really think the Pats will make this a statement game and I pity the hapless Dolphins who despite their best efforts just aren’t any good.
New England 34 Miami 6

That "some Dolphin" was resident NFL knucklehead and former Steeler Joey Porter. The best part about that story was the next day he said "Man, all you media guys took my words out of context and twisted it around!" And then he proceeded to say the exact same thing about Cassel a second time. What a moron. Still, if the Chiefs kept it kind of close in Week 1, maybe the Pats just aren't going to totally thrash anyone this season? I'll probably regret this, but I'm taking the points. Patriots 23, Dolphins 13.

Oakland (1-1) at Buffalo (2-0) -9.5
With the threat of unemployment looming over his head, Lane Kiffin rallied his troops last week in a shocking upset. The Bills on the other hand continue to surprise me with their hard fought victories. I keep waiting for the Dick Jauron factor to kick in, but maybe he’s realizing his potential as a head coach. 9.5 is a lot of points to cover, right? Even for a good Bills team at home
Buffalo 27 Oakland 20

It's only week 3, but here's a bold prediction: the Bills win the AFC East. That's a good young team. Their defense has looked very good. And their offense isn't too bad either, with Trent Edwards seeming to be a solid QB. The Raiders won't put up many points. Bills 23, Raiders 10.

Houston (0-1) at Tennessee (2-0) -4.5
So much for my theory about the Titans. I’m telling you, this team had nothing against Green Bay in their final preseason game, and here they are winning football games. Houston was given a week off thanks to Ike so they are well rested but the question remains: are they any good? I’m going to give them a shot this week, but not to win. As improbable as this sounds to me, look for the Titans to go to 3-0
Tennessee 20 Houston 17

The Titans have a pretty solid defense. And we really don't know what we have in the Texans. I'm sticking with Tennessee until they prove me wrong. Titans 23, Texans 13.

St. Louis (0-2) at Seattle (0-2) -9.5
OK, Seattle is in a tough situation. I have never, and I mean never seen a team so obliterated by injuries. If San Francisco can whup them at home then I think the Rams can keep it closer than 9.5. I wonder what kind of shape Koren Robinson is in, because he’s probably going to be the Seahawks #1 receiver this week. Unbelieveable.
Seattle 34 St. Louis 27

Yep, Seattle went into last week's game down their top 4 WRs. By midway throguh the 1st quarter, they were down their top 6 WRs. TOP SIX!!!! They had 3 healthy WRs, 2 of which hadn't been on the team the previous Tuesday. Still, they should have won the game. The defense played horrible down the stretch, forcing punts on only 3 of San Fran's final 10 possessions. And yes, good ol K-Drop is back. Maybe it was the alcohol that was causing him to drop so many passes in his previous stint? And maybe now that he's (finally) sober, he'll show good hands? And maybe my boss will fire the two consultants who's fuck-ups I've been fixing all week and just give me the money he's been paying them. If Seattle can win this game, they should get both Engram and Branch back after next week's bye. Just in time to get their asses kicked by the Giants (a game I'll be at) in Week 5. Seahawks 23, Rams 20.

New Orleans (1-1) at Denver (2-0) -5.5
I guess we all know by now that I like Denver at home, and as much as I also like betting on the Saints, I’m going with the Broncos. New Orleans is a below sea level team built around Reggie Bush going to a high altitude climate. This game may be close for a half, but the thin air will wear down the Saints. Denver by a TD sounds about right
Denver 27 New Orleans 20

The Broncos could be a sleeper team this season. They have a decent defense, Cutler seems servicable, and they have their usual successful "system" running game. Meanwhile, the Saints struggled on offense with Marques Colston out and their defense looks pretty bad. Broncos 26, Saints 20.

Detroit (0-2) at San Francisco (1-1) -4.5
Wow. This week’s hands down SBS stinker pits two pretty hapless teams against each other. Detroit showed a little fight last week against the Packers by battling back from a 21 – 0 deficit to take a 25 – 24 lead, while San Francisco handed it to Seattle at Seattle. I’m a bit NFC North inclined, so I’m going with the Lions to win. Why? The Lions have enough talent. They just can’t seem to put it together. Besides, San Francisco reached their quota of wins last week
Detroit 27 San Francisco 24

Maybe this is me being delusional and hoping Seattle isn't really as bad as they looked last week.. but J.T. O'Sullivan showed some nice poise under pressure (he was sacked 8 times, and it probably should have been more like 11) and made some nice throws. Plus, factor in the revenge factor for Mike Martz, now the offensive coordinator in SF after being fired by Detroit. Maybe the Niners aren't as bad as people thought? Niners 27, Lions 20.

Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1) -5.5
It took all Indy had to beat the Vikings last week, but one thing was apparent: by the second half of that game Peyton Manning had found his rhythm again. This week, at home, he’ll have it going right from the start. Look for Indy to cruise.
Colts 31 Jags 20

I'll have to disagree on that one. The Jaguars always play the Colts tough, and Indy is still banged up enough to be not their usual selves. Plus Bob Sanders is out for 4-6 weeks, and he's the heart of that Indy D. I'll take the points, I think this spread is way too high. Colts 23, Jags 20.
Pittsburgh (2-0) at Philadelphia (1-1) -3.5
Philly is coming off a tough loss at Dallas Monday night despite playing their hearts out…at least on offense. This week they go against arguably the best team in the AFC. The Steelers have played good solid D, and last week (in case you missed it) Big Ben completed 11-18 in 60 mph wind gusts. I like the Steelers this week. There’s too much stacked against Philly
Steelers 28 Eagles 24

Actually, I like the Eagles in this game. Westbrook is a nightmare for opposing defenses and McNabb looks like his old self. Plus Big Ben has a separated shoulder that nobody is talking about. Eagles 28, Steelers 24.

Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (1-0) -2.5
So Baltimore got a break with Ike rolling through Houston last week. This week they play a gritty Browns team who took a tough loss against Pittsburgh. I like the Browns, really, and it’s hard to imagine that team going to 0-3 but that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Joe Flacco looked like a young Ben Rothels… Big Ben two weeks ago as he lumbered around the field in the Raven’s win. Let’s go with the Ravens again. I’m betting that this Flacco kid’s got some magic in him
Baltimore 24 Cleveland 21

I don't have much to add here. Other than I'll take the points, but just barely.
Ravens 24, Browns 23.

Dallas (2-0) at Green Bay (2-0) +2.5
It’s hard for me to bet against the Pack, but I’m going to. Dallas showed me something last week with an astonishing vertical game. There’s no doubt that Terrell Owens can stretch a field, but Tony Romo’s timing to T.O. was impeccable. This is going to be a challenge for the Packer D, especially with starting safety Atari Bigby out (replaced by a pretty good VA Tech guy named Aaron Rouse) Conversely, watching Greg Jennings waiting downfield for an Aaron Rodgers bomb was enough to convince me they’re not quite there yet. Rodgers has been everything advertised: he’s cool, confident and talented. But this is a team sport and the Cowboys have the depth. I’ll keep hoping that the short week hurts them.
Dallas 37 Green Bay 27

Uh oh, looks like Samichlaus is trying to pull the good ol' "reverse jinx" move on this one! This should be a shootout, but the difference will be the Packers CBs. They'll eb able to get their hands on TO and rough him up a bit, and he hates dealing with that. It totally throws him off his game. Also, the Packers should have an advantage in the running game. How they're getting almost a field goal at home, I have no idea. I'll say it again: Tony Romo is overrated. Packers 33, Cowboys 26.

NY Jets (1-1) at San Diego (0-2) -8.5
It’s Brett the Jet on MNF and that means show time. San Diego is not an 0-2 team but there’s way too many points separating these two. Brett will keep it close enough to cover this shoot out, and maybe even close enough to win
Jets 37 San Diego 34

Yeah, that's way too many points. I'm still not sure how the heck the Jets didn't give the Pats a better game last week. Oh, and Tomlinson is banged up for the Chargers. Did I mention I don't trust Phillip Rivers? Chargers 27, Jets 23.