Week 13 - Don't tell the Cowboys it's December

Wecome to December, or as it's referred to in Dallas, "Baseball Season". Yes friends your favorite sports blogging idiots have not forgotten you, and if St. Ides can wrest himself away from the X-Box he too may have some picks. There are a lot of good matchups this week, including a Monday Night game that Ol' Samichlaus has a rooting interest in so let's get to it...

For the record, I don't own an XBox. Though I do have a Nintendo Wii. And a fridge downstairs that is used for mostly beer. And DVR. And now, thanks to a generous co-worker who lives in Seattle, a Sehawks Santa hat. It's awesome. Oh and by the way, I took the Jets on Thursday night. For no other reason than someone named "JETSFAN13" (I'm not sure if that's his age or IQ) is only 3 games behind me in my money pool, and I figured he'd take the Jets. So I took them to nullify his pick. He didn't take them, Jets won, and now I'm 4 games up. It's going to be a nailbiting final 5 weeks.


Tennessee (5-6) at Indianapolis (11-0) -6.5
Sure the Titans are on a bit of a hot streak, and sure the Colts keep winning close games, but the Colts should have no problem winning this game at home by a TD. Colts 31 Titans 20

I've been sticking with the "AFC south divisional games are usually close" plan and it's backfired a few times. But I have to take the pointd here. Since the Colts held Chris Johnson to barely 30 yards several weeks ago, he's gotten at least 130 each game and is now on pace to break 2000 yards. And did you see Vince Young engineer that last minute winning drive last week? Vince freakin Young!! I like what the Titans have been doing lately and they might just win this game outright. Titans 26, Colts 24.

Tampa Bay (1-10) at Carolina (4-7) -6.5
It looks like the Bucs were able to put it together for one lousy game this year… against the Packers. Taking their show on the road brings another defeat. The Cats win and cover: Panthers 23 Buccaneers 10

Jake Delhomme is out with a busted hand or finger or something. Deangelo Williams is out too. If this backup QB were any good, don't you think he would have gotten a shot when Delhomme was completing more passes to opponents than to his own team? Meanwhile, Tampa has kept all their games close since going with the rookie qb. Bucs 24, Cats 23.

Philadelphia (7-4) at Atlanta (6-5) +5.5
One of my Samichlaus insiders broke the news to me this week that Matt Ryan is hurt and that the Falcons are in trouble. Never mind that my insider is an Indian chick who used to work for me, she’s pretty bright. I’ll trust my knowledge worker. Eagles 27 Falcons 17

Similar to the Panthers situation. No Matt Ryan. No Michael Turner. Chris Redman at QB. No chance. Eagles 31, Falcons 20.

New Orleans (11-0) at Washington (3-8) +9.5
Who dat? The Saints continue their march and have no problems against an outclassed Redskins team. Though I’m taking the Saints, I’m curious to watch how the Skins D tries to stop Drew Brees. I like the Redskins D, just not as much as I like the Saints. New Orleans 37 Washington 20

The Saints sure looked good dismantling the Pats. But that was the first game they've covered in 5 weeks. The Skins have been more competitive of late. I'm taking the points. Saints 32, Skins 26

St. Louis (1-10) at Chicago (4-7) -8.5
And so God smiled on his God forsaken children in Chicago and said “I have made you to suffer by causing you to live in this God forsaken city, always in the shadows of New York, no matter how high you build your buildings. Thus I take pity upon you good, yet dumb people and send you these sacrificial Rams. Have at ‘em”. Chicago by 10. Bears 20 Rams 10

The Bears have been brutal. I'd argue they're worse than their record. Their defense is a shell of what it once was. They can't run the ball worth a damn. And the supposed savior QB Jay Cutler has been underwhelming. I'm petrified of taking Kyle Boller on the road though. Flip a coin.. Bears 20, Rams 13.

Detroit (2-9) at Cincinnati (8-3) -13.5
I’m tempted to take those points but I’ll save it for the next game. The Bengals should cruise at home against a Lions team that will need at least 5 years to recover from Matt Millen. Bengals 35 Lions 13

Cinci is starting to get the respect they deserve this season. But maybe too much respect. They haven't been covering big spreads against crappy teams like the Browns and Raiders. Chalk up another win but failed cover. Bengals 27, Lions 17.

Oakland (3-8) at Pittsburgh (6-5) -13.5
Call me crazy but I’m taking the Raiders in this game. Maybe because they do occasionally pull the upset, or maybe because there are cracks in the Stealers armor, but either way 13.5 is too much Christmas punch for Samichlaus to handle. Stealers 27 Raiders 17

Love the silly internal bickering between Hines Ward and Big Ben about whether he should have played last week while concussed. I hate them both. Oakland is an enigma, but at least they've finally benched Jamarcus Russell. That gives them a puncher's chance. Stealers 23, Raiders 13.

Houston (5-6) at Jacksonville (6-5) -0.5
After a modest three game winning streak, the Jags got the snot kicked out of them by the Niners last week. Meanwhile Houston has a must win game as their season hangs in the balance. Both teams are equally desperate, so I’ll go with the home team and give a meaningless half point. Jags 27 Texans 24

In my pool last week I took the Texans last week and the points against the Colts. When they went up 14-0, I was thinking I was looking good. Houston then proceeded to get outscored 31-6 before scoring a last minute garbage TD. Meanwhile Jacksonville moved the ball at will against the Niners, and repeatedly turned over the ball in the red zone. I don't trust either of these teams really, but I trust the Jags less. Texans 31, Jaguars 20.

Denver (7-4) at Kansas City (3-8) +4.5
The last time I bet against KC at home I lost. The last time I took Denver on the road I lost. Any questions? Chiefs 24 Broncos 23

I'm pretty sure the Broncos are a below average team despite their record. I know KC is a below average team. I was tempted to take Denver, and then I read they're something like 1-20 at Arrowhead in December. I'll take the home dog. Chiefs 24, Broncos 23.

New England (7-4) at Miami (5-6) +4.5
The Patriots have disappointed on the road this season, winning only once against that juggernaut that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’ll stick with that trend and go against the grain. I’ll have the fish please, hold the tarter sauce, and a side of New England clam chowder to go. Patriots 30 Dolphins 28

I haven't seen the Pats get spanked like that since the first game of the season several years ago against the Bills right after they'd cut Lawyer Milloy. Wow. Has Belichick lost his mojo? Has his deal with the devil expired? Whatever it is, this Pats defense looks fairly unreliable against a good offense. Now, if Miami a good offense with Chad Henne at QB and Ronnie Brown out? That's debatable. If the Pats lose this, it's panic time. I don't see Brady letting that happen. Pats 27, Fins 20.

San Diego (8-3) at Cleveland (1-10) +13.5
The Bolts keep getting better and better, while the Browns get worse. I did look up the forecast for Cleveland on Sunday and found out it’s going to be sunny and 40 degrees. In other words there’s nothing standing in the Chargers way. Bolts 37 Browns 13

The Browns have actually hung around in a few games recently. But they're probably the worst team in the league. Two years ago with the emergence of Derek Anderson and the drafting of Brady Quinn, it looked like they had the enviable problem of two quality QBs. Now? Looks like they both suck. Meanwhile Phillip Rivers has been putting up points in bunches. I'll lay the home points this time. Chargers 34, Browns 10.

San Francisco (5-6) at Seattle (4-7) -0.5
So Seattle’s GM quit this week and Mike Holmgren wants back in. Wowsers. Is that because Holmgren was so good as a GM that the Seahawks had to bring in Ted Thompson to run the football operations? Anyway, this is going to be as good game. I’m giving the edge to Seattle for home field advantage. They can handle Frank Gore, can’t they? Seahawks 24 Niners 20

Seattle GM Tim Ruskell is out after he asked ownership about his future (this was the last year of his contract), and they said they wouldn't be having him back. Let the rumors of Holmgren's return begin! Reading some quotes from Seahawk players this week, they seem to really believe they still have a shot to make the playoffs. Really? Seriously? I don't think so. This team doesn't look good enough to run the table the rest of the way, especially on defense. When they played the Niners earlier this year, Hasselbeck suffered those broken ribs in the first half and Frank Gore tore them up. They managed to contain Steven Jackson last week and Kyle Boller couldn't make them pay. If they can contain gore, it's unlikely Alex Smith can make them pay. I'm going to show a little optimism for a change. Seahawks 27, Niners 23.

Dallas (8-3) at NY Giants (6-5) +2.5
All those drunken elves running around Samichlaus’s workshop can only mean one thing: it’s December! Time for Tony Romo (who was spotted in Vegas last week) to mail in the rest of his season. Gosh, don’t you just love Christmas time? Giants 30 Cowboys 24

Let the annual Cowboys December collapse begin! And who better to start it off than the Giants. I still think the Cowboys are a bit overrated. I don't really have much faith in the Giants or Eli Manning, but this is the NFL and teams play Jeckyl and Hyde every week. My guess is the Giants pass rush and secondary look like their old selves (at least for a week) and we see Romo leaving the field shaking his head after throwing his 3rd pick. Giants 24, Cowboys 20.

Minnesota (10-1) at Arizona (7-4) +4.5
Since I can never seem to get my Arizona picks right, and I really want them to win this week, I’m picking against them. By the way Brett Favre is a serious contender for MVP this year. If he should win, it would be the sixth time Favre was awarded the MVP. Three previous awards were for “Most Valuable Player” and two other times Favre nailed the award for “Most Vicodin Prescriptions” Vikings 37 Cardinals 24

There's still some doubt whether or not Kurt Warner will play. That loss to the Titans last week can be the kind of crushing loss that derails a season. Luckily for Arizona, the NFC West blows. Meanwhile, Favre has an 8:1 TD to INT ratio, which would be the best ever for a season. (24:3) Now, it only takes one pick to knock that down to 6:1, but still, for a "gunslinger" like Favre who's usually closer to 3:1, it's pretty amazing. Like I said earlier, I'm going to be optimistic about Seattle for this week at least, and the Cards getting destroyed would further that cause. Vikings 37, Cardinals 23.

Baltimore (6-5) at Green Bay (7-4) -3.5
This game is a huge test for the Packers, who have come alive starting with their win over Dallas. A lot has been made about the Packers #1 ranked defense in the NFC, but even the players know there is something fishy about this. The stat is based on total yards allowed per game, and the Packers have indeed allowed somewhere around 281 yards per game. But the Pack is ranked 5th in scoring allowed and 7th in touchdowns allowed. So why the discrepancy? It all comes back to special teams play. Because the Packers special teams have been so terrible, opposing teams are always playing with a short field. So yes the Packers D gives up less yards than any other NFC team, but that’s partly because they have less yards to defend. By the way, do you know which team has a better ranked defense than Green Bay? The New York Jets. OK, back to the game. I’m not sold on the Packers quite yet. The Dallas game was special, but really who have they beaten? Meanwhile the Ravens are all over the map. I like the Ravens, they are a nasty football team, but I’m taking the Packers for two reasons: home field and long rest after the Thanksgiving game. Packers 23 Ravens 17

How the hell are the Packers 7-4? Weren't we writing them (and Nick Barnett) off just a few weeks ago? Speaking of writing people off, I know he doesn't have a lot of weapons at receiver, but I'm starting to think Joe Flacco is looking like the typical "just manage games and don't lose them but can't single-handedly win them either" Ravens QB. Welcome to the Frozen Tundra, Joe. Packers 26, Ravens 20.