Week 14 - The Home Stretch

Samichlaus actually sent me his Thursday pick during the afternoon on Thursday, but we didn't get it up. We're not cheating. Really.

It's going to be cold as a fill in your hackneyed metaphor here tonight in Cleveland, with temperatures at kickoff expected to be at 19 degrees. But does this favor the home team or the visitors? Read on dear reader, read on...

Pittsburgh (6-6) at Cleveland (1-11) +10.5
As bad as Pittsburgh has been, and as tough as Cleveland historically plays them, I am leaning towards the Stealers. I have two reasons for this thinking: first, the Stealers are the better team and second the Stealers are the more desperate team. Remember, desperation is measured by what you have to play for and at this stage all the Browns have left to play for is pride. The Stealers are still in the playoff hunt as they vie for a wildcard spot.They have lost 4 in a row and are due for a win. Add to that the challenge put forth to them by head coach Mike Tomlin, who called out the team earlier this week for their poor play and I see Pittsburgh finally putting it all together. Pittsburgh 23 Cleveland 10

I always seem to be late on the Thursday picks, but I promise I'm not picking the winner after the fact. As bad as Cleveland has been, the Stealers are in trouble. A struggling running game, a banged up Hines Ward. And their defense just isn't itself without Troy Polamalu. (The Madden Curse strikes again!) I didn't think the Browns were actually going to win, but I'd gladly take 10 points.

Miami (6-6) at Jacksonville (7-5) -2.5
A battle of Florida with huge playoff implications. It seems like just last week the Jags were getting tatered by Seattle. Meanwhile the Fins are just 1 game behind the Pats for the AFC East lead after last week's impressive win. I still don't trust the Jags at all. David Garrard is a disaster waiting to happen. Meanwhile, former Wolverine Chad Henne is doing a halfway decent job of learning under pressure and already has a few impressive game winning drives under his belt. I like Miami to romp. Dolphins 31, Jags 17.

Carolina (5-7) at New England (7-5) -13.5
That's a lot of points. I said last week if the Pats lose, it's panic time. It sure is. Brady just doesn't look like he has the same invincible aura of past years. Belichick no longer looks like a genius. Moss may be sulking. And they're slowly losing their grip on the division with both the Jets and Fins only 1 game back. Meanwhile, some guy named Moore continues to qb the Panthers in place of injured Delhomme. I don't know what to think here. I'd never really touch this game with an actual bet, but I'll take the Pats, just barely. Pats 31, Panthers 17.

Denver (8-4) at Indianapolis (12-0) -7.5
Talk about a team that's hard to figure out. I was going to take Denver at KC last week until I read Denver was like 1-20 at KC in December. And the Broncos proceeded to kill the Chiefs. Meanwhile the Colts methodically continue to march towards an undefeated season. Let me throw this out there for the first time - how nuts would it be if we Colts vs Saints in the Super Bowl, both undefeated? I wonder if that would be the most watched game of all time. Let's keep the dream alive. Colts 31, Broncos 17.

Buffalo (4-8) at Kansas City (3-9) -0.5
See above. The Chiefs have let me down for the last time this season. Bills 26, Chiefs 20.

Cincinnati (9-3) at Minnesota (10-2) -6.5
So the Vikes have finally been brought down to reality a bit. The Bengals offense has sputtered a bit since Cedric Benson got hurt. He's playing, but between the injury and heavy workload, he hasn't looked the same. Still, the Bengals seem to be in a close game every week - whether it's not covering a 10+ spread against horrible teams like the Browns or sticking around with the top teams. I'm taking the points, and wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals win outright as chinks in the Minnesota armor start to become exposed just in time for the playoffs. Bengals 26, Vikings 23.

NY Jets (6-6) at Tampa Bay (1-11) +3.5
I took the Bucs last week and paid for it as Josh whathisname was able to move the ball against Carolina, but threw 5 picks. I was going to take the Bucs again this week with Dirty Sanchez out for the Jets. Then I was talking to one of my co-workers who's a huge Jets fan, and he insisted the Kellen Clemens is a good QB. Well, maybe "good" is too strong a word. But he was insistent that Clemens is way better than Sanchez right now. Usually I would blow this off as homer optimism, but this dude is usually realistic. And does anybody who isn't a huge fan of a team usually know anything about their backup other than the fundamental "They're a backup, they must suck" assumption? I'm going with his advice and taking the Jets. Jets 27, Bucs 13.

New Orleans (12-0) at Atlanta (6-6) +9.5
Man, the Saints almost seem like a team of destiny after last week's win, huh? Lost in all media frenzy following the game celebrating their improbable win to remain undefeated (and the subsequent release of the Skins kicker who cost them the game) was one important fact - the Saints failed to cover. Despite the Falcons being amazingly banged up, I'm taking the points again. Saints 30, Falcons 23.

Detroit (2-10) at Baltimore (6-6) -13.5
The Lions are keeping their games close. No, really. I guess most people aren't noticing because Vegas keeps giving them double-digit points. Well, I'm going to keep taking them. Just like the Pittsburgh defense isn't the say without Polamalu, the Ravens defense misses Ed Reed. Speaking of those two, there's a young safety named Eric Berry coming out this year who people are comparing to those two. There's been some debate on Seahawks boards I frequent about whether or not Seattle should spend what looks like potentially a top 10 pick on a safety. After seeing the difference a safety of this caliber makes (and this year is a perfect example of what a difference they make with both missing games), I'd say take him in a heartbeat. But I digress... Taking the points. Ravens 23, Lions 13.

Green Bay (8-4) at Chicago (5-7) +3.5
Good win last week for the Packers. They look like a playoff team. What the heck has gotten into former Wolverine Charles Woodson? It was 12 years ago that he won the Heisman Trophy, and this could possibly be his best season yet. Unheard of for a DB who usually lose a step or two by then. Anyways, Cutler has been pretty much a disaster in Chicago, the defense stinks, and they have no running game. Unless the Packers fall asleep on them (and I doubt they will against a divisional rival), they should win this easily. Speaking of the Heisman, it's being awarded tonight, and there's some huge DT from Nebraska named Ndamukong Suh among the 5 finalists. There's a decent chance he'll win it, which will make him the first defensive player to win it since Woodson. (And, really, Woodson had the advantage of being a playmaker on special teams too, returning kicks and punts.) This Suh guy looks unstoppable and may just be the overall #1 pick next spring if he can stay out of trouble and have a decent combine. He seems to be a freak. I'd love him in Seattle keeping their LBs clean. Oh, back to the game.. Aaron Rodgers has looked good lately too. Packers 29, Bears 20.

Seattle (5-7) at Houston (5-7) -6.5
My optimism about Seattle last week paid off. But with the Cardinals beating the Vikings, their shot at the NFC West is all but dead. Still, they have a mathematical chance at the Wild Card, and it's always good to end the season in a positive way. One other angle - Matt Hasselbeck missed two and half games. The game he got hurt against the Niners, they were down 13-10 at halftime and Seneca Wallace proceeded to put up a goose egg in the second half. And home against the Bears, they were two missed field goals away from winning despite Wallace looking below average all game. I know it's a pathetic "what if?" situation, but it may demonstrate the Seattle really isn't as bad as they've seemed at times. Erase that Hasselbeck injury, and this team could very easily be 7-5 and knocking on the playoff door. Meanwhile, the Texans continue to let me down, having cost me wins in my money pool (where I'm clinging to a 3-game lead) the past two weeks. I think Seattle wins this outright, as the Texans fall out of playoff contention with a resounding thud. Seahawks 26, Texans 24.

St. Louis (1-11) at Tennessee (5-7) -13.5
The Rams have been playing better of late. And the Titans recovery from an 0-6 start hit a wall last week against the Colts. But Chris Johnson is just too much to handle for almost every team in the league. Yes, he's better than Adrian Peterson. Titans 27, Rams 10.

Washington (3-9) at Oakland (4-8) +1.5
I said last week that the Raiders had a puncher's chance against the Stealers with Jamarcus Russell finally benched. I'll stick with that theme and say they win a handful of more games with this uhhhh what's his name? Gradkowski or something? Anyways, yeah. The Skins had a chance for a season-defining victory over the Saints last week and blew it. That about sums up their season. Raiders 24, Skins 17.

San Diego (9-3) at Dallas (8-4) -3.5
Ho ho ho! Merry Christmas! The Chargers are hot hot hot! And as we mentioned last week, welcome to the annual Cowboys December collapse. The pressure on them this week at home has got to be immense. And I haven't known Tony Romo to do well under pressure. Speaking of which, apparently he'll be holding on kicks again starting this week. The first time he's done so since bobbling that potential game winning field goal snap in the playoffs in Seattle two years ago. Ahhhh, that was such a sweet moment. Let's raise a glass of egg nog to toast to another Romo holiday fiasco! PS - The Dallas defense really isn't anything special. Chargers 27, Cowboys 20.

Philadelphia (8-4) at NY Giants (7-5) -1.5
The winner of this game will claim 1st place in the NFC East if (when) Dallas loses to the Chargers. Everybody seems to love the Eagles. And I almost do. Except I believe that the Giants have made some adjustments in their secondary to address some of the holes they had earlier in the season. They've got their confidence back after whalloping Dallas, and the crowd should be pretty nuts at the Meadowlands for this one. Oh, and I can't remember McNabb having a horrible game yet this year. He's due. Giants 27, Eagles 16.

Arizona (8-4) at San Francisco (5-7) +3.5‬‪
Holy poop, here come the Cardinals! Around this time last year, they were getting ice cold and basically stumbling into the playoffs. They had wrapped up the god awful NFC West by now, and lost some intensity playing meaningless games, and people didn't take them seriously come playoff time. Well, as we all know, they turned it on, got hot, and made that unlikely run to the Super Bowl. This year? I predict the opposite. They continue to play well into the playoffs, and just as all the writers say "Hey, this team can repeat as NFC Champs!" they lose in the first round at home to a Wild Card team like the Packers. In fact, let's take it a bit further. Packers at Arizona, first round. Nick Barnett has 2 sacks and Charles Woodson has 2 picks as Green Bay pulls off the upset. You heard it here first. Anyways, the Niners usually play them tough, but I'll lay the points and stick to my prediction. Cardinals 29, Niners 24.