Week 16... if this were a better season we'd have been waiting for this one!

Merry Christmas from the Samichlaus household here in the southernmost region of the North Pole. It was a spectacular Christmas, as we were able to keep our respective families at a safe distance and share a quiet holiday with each other. I did manage to watch some of the Bolts beat down of the Titans, and I will say that I would have taken the Chargers to win. We’ll see if St. Ides feels a little Christmas spirit and gives me credit for the post apocalyptic pick.

Of course I'm feeling the Christmas spirit! I think we've been late on most of our Thursday picks, but considering we're admitting defeat (yes, I took the Titans this week) means we're being honest, right?

So going into last week in my money pool, I had a 2-game lead. I went an abysmall 2-3. However, one of the guys right behind me went 1-4, and the other went 0-5. It was a rough week, nobody out of 70+ people went 5-0. So here we are entering the final 2 weeks of the season, and I have a 3-game lead. My "magic number" to clinch first is 8. (I'm sure our highly intelligent readers know what that means, but just in case we get a random sport newb stopping by, it means if I get a combined total of my wins + my closest competition's losses of 8 or more, I win.) Basically, if I can go 3-2 both weeks, they'd have to go 9-1 just to tie me. It SEEMS like a pretty good cushion, but I still have to pick the winners. The pressure is on. $5k on the line. Wish me luck.

This week features a matchup made for SBS: The Seahawks come to Green Bay to play the Packers. Had the Seahawks played a bit better this season, this game would have been special. SBS would have been the place to be this Sunday. We would have featured live gameday blogs, along with analysis and commentary throughout the week. All the things that you'd expect from a first rate sports blog.

Which of course we are not...

Meanwhile, here’s how the rest of your games are going to shake out…

Baltimore (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7) -2.5
Pittsburgh had a huge win against Green Bay. They played well and won fair and square. I warned Mrs. Samichlaus that every call in the game would go the Steelers way, but it was simply not the case. The last play of the game was something, and as much as the Green Bay press wants to get on journeyman dime back Josh Bell for not getting under the receiver, Ben Roethlisberger made a hell of a throw from 20 yards out. (btw, Roethlisberger is now a spell check aware word in Office 2007…. Kudos to Microsoft!). With that said, I’m going with Baltimore in this game. I think the Ravens D is better than the Packers D (especially since Al Harris is out) and I think the Ravens won’t let up: they are mentally tougher than the Packers and will prove it this week. Ravens 30 Steelers 27

I couldn't believe the Stealers pulled that one out last week. But the Packers did give me the gift of getting that 2-point conversion in the end and barely covering. Meanwhile the Ravens have quietly put together a nice little run and are in pretty good shape for the playoffs. I think they turn up the heat on Ben and he goes from throwing for 500 yards to throwing for around 200. I think I'm making this one of my money picks this week. Joe Flacco don 't let me down! Ravens 27, Stealers 17.

Carolina (6-8) at NY Giants (8-6) -7.5
The Cats are playing for pride, and the Giants are playing for a playoff spot. I’m not sure about the spread, but I’m going with the Giants. They can still dominate at times, and I think this is the time. Giants 34 Panthers 23

You would think that's how it should play out, right? But the Vikings had a lot on the line last week and the Panthers handled them. When are DBs in this league going to learn? Don't talk smack to Steve Smith. I don't quite understand why he doesn't play at that level every game when he's clearly capable of it, but once someone talks shit to him, he goes on a mission to single-handedly embarass them. Let's hope the Giants don't make that mistake. Giants 30, Panthers 20.

Seattle (5-9) at Green Bay (9-5) -14.5
Wowsers. That is a lot of points. Seattle has looked bad and is moving in the wrong direction. They are spiraling out of control. Matt Hasselbeck, coming off a five turnover outing, can’t throw the deep ball and is nursing a bad shoulder. The receivers are not doing well either: first off they overpaid for Houshmandzadeh (not a spell check aware name) who is pedestrian at best. Second, Nate Burleson is out, making Deion Branch their number two. Branch has not been the same since blowing out his knee against Green Bay in ’08. Bottom line is the Packers D should give them fits. Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy was quoted on Thursday as saying the Packers have practiced better than they have all year this week. Practice well, play well. Packers win and cover. Packers 36 Seahawks 10

Yes, Seattle has sucked. But Houshmandzadeh has been a little better than pedestrian. He's 6th in the NFC in receptions and has had some huge third down catches. There have also been big plays where he clearly draws the safety, which has left Burleson or TE John Carlson wide open. Did Seattle overpay for him? Probably. But let's give him a full year with a healthy Hasselbeck before declaring him a bust. I was tempted to take the Packers as a money pick, but I don't think I could deal with the emotional turmoil if the Seahawks somehow pulled off a win in this game and at the same time cost me 5 grand... Packers 31, Seahawks 13.

Tampa Bay (2-12) at New Orleans (13-1) -14.5
Well. The Bucs pulled off the SBS sweep this year by whupping both the Packers and the Seahawks. Good for them. I hope they all get the runs from eating a bad batch of Cuban sandwiches from Ybor City. Fucks. New Orleans should win with ease: Saints 37 Bucs 13

You'd think by this late in the season we'd see fewer huge point spreads. Nope. There's clearly a top tier and rock bottom tier this season, and they're often playing one another. The Saints screwed me on Thursday night last week, and let's not forget that botched game when they fumbled with under 2 minutes to go. They haven't been covering much lately. I'll take those points. Saints 31, Bucs 20.

Buffalo (5-9) at Atlanta (7-7) -9.5
There’s been a Brian Brohm sighting in Buffalo: Brohm, signed off the Packers practice squad may get the start this week as Ryan Fitzpatrick has not practiced and is listed as questionable. I’m going with Atlanta this week. Although Matt Ryan is also questionable, he has had limited practice. The Bills on the road lose by 10. Falcons 30 Bills 20

Ryan played last week and I imagine he'll tough it out this week. The Bills have been an odd team, and that's a lot of points, but now that I know there's a good chance Brian Brohm will be the QB, it makes more sense that the spread is so high. Falcons 27, Bills 10.

Kansas City (3-11) at Cincinnati (9-5) -13.5
The Bengals need a win to clinch their division. The Chiefs? They can smell that good Kansas City BBQ and the respite of the off season… The Bengals are great at home in December, winning 6 of their last 7. Bengals win and cover: Bengals 34 Chiefs 17

I road the Bengals early on and they gave me several wins. At one point, I think I jumped ship after they lost to the Raiders. And I haven't climbed back on since. The Chiefs are pretty bad and very banged up, but this has "trap game" written all over it, at least in terms of betting. Bengals dominate the game but don't put up tons of points, and a garbage-time TD for the cover from the Chiefs. Bengals 23, Chiefs 10.

Oakland (5-9) at Cleveland (3-11) -3.5
Both teams have shown some life, perhaps Oakland has shown a bit more. But with Mike Holmgren waiting in the wings Browns players and coaches are playing for their jobs. Watch the Browns absolutely trounce the Raiders this week. Browns 27 Raiders 7

I have mixed emotions about Holmgren going to Cleveland. Apparently he wanted back in Seattle, and Seattle made him an offer.. Though for him not to take it, it was probably a shitty offer. I guess we'll see what he's really made of, as the Browns are a frickin mess. Meanwhile, the Raiders would be a half way decent team if they can solve their QB woes. I'm not sure if Jamarcus Russell or Charlie Frye gets the start this week, but it probably doesn't matter much. Browns 19, Raiders 13.

Houston (7-7) at Miami (7-7) -3.5
This should be a great game, but I’ll give the nod to Miami. On a personal note, this game should be a bit paradoxal for my father in law. Although he is a Dolphins fan, he also lives in the shadow of UVA. I wonder how he’ll react to Matt Schaub throwing passes against the Fins? Better hope this one isn’t on local TV… Dolphins 24 Texans 20

I've gone back and forth on this one three times. The Fins had a heart-breaking loss to the Titans last week. The Texans barely beat the Rams. Both teams seem to have the talent to get into the playoffs, it's a matter of who shows up and wants it more and makes fewer mistakes. Schaub hasn't shown me he can deliver under pressure. But neither has Henne (who, by the way, went 0-4 against Ohio State during his career at Michigan). The Texans running game has been fumble prone. The Dolphins running game is Ricky Williams. The defenses seem to be pretty evenly matched. I'm going to say Henne pulls this one out of his ass and gives Miami fans hope that he can truly be their first solid franchise QB since Dan Marino. But they don't cover. Dolphins 27, Texans 26.

Jacksonville (7-7) at New England (9-5) -7.5
Easy pick: Patriots at home fighting for the division title. I like New England by 10. Patriots 30 Jaguars 20

I agree. Though I wouldn't put money on it. Patriots 29, Jaguars 20.

Detroit (2-12) at San Francisco (6-8) -12.5
Honestly. The hardest part about doing picks at the end of the season is forcing myself to think about the Detroit Lions. Yesterday, a Nigerian terrorist attempted to blow up an aircraft in route to Detroit, but according to passengers fumbled with the apparatus he was using to ignite the explosives. After he was tackled by the other passengers and led off the plane, the Lions offered him a contract to play special teams. What? Too soon? Niners 30 Lions 13

Haha, no, not too soon. Lions actually covered last week. Despite Daunte Culpepper seeing extended playing time. Niners are done for the playoff hunt, but they can still finish at .500 by winning their final two. Niners 27, Lions 10.

St. Louis (1-13) at Arizona (9-5) -14.5
Arizona should have an easy win, and no, the 14.5 doesn’t scare me. They win today and coast against Green Bay next week to finish 10-6. Cardinals 33 Rams 17

It scares me a little. The Cardinals seem to play down to their competition. The Rams have kept it close lately against the likes of the Saints and Texans. Arizona doesn't have much to play for. They have the NFC West locked up, would need all kinds of help to sneak into the #2 seed. So they're basically a #3-4 seed with a home playoff game. It might make sense to not put Kurt Warner in harm's way. Cardinals 24, Rams 13.

Denver (8-6) at Philadelphia (10-4) -7.5
Denver on the road against a Philadelphia team that’s poised to win their division. You’ve got to love Philly in this one. I see a two TD win easily. Eagles 37 Denver 23

I hope you're right. I'm making this one of my money picks. I was basically thinking the same thing. Denver really isn't as good as their 8 wins may indicate. I been saying for weeks that McNabb was due to lay an egg, and he hasn't. Which means he is still due. But I'm thinking he'll save it for the playoffs, as their offense is now a bit more balanced and their defense is playing well enough for McNabb to not have to do a lot. Eagles 31, Broncos 20.

NY Jets (7-7) at Indianapolis (14-0) -5.5
I’m really rooting for the Jets this week. Sure the Colts would like to go undefeated, but the Jets are playing for a playoff spot. The question is can they rise to the occasion? Mark Sanchez has a lot stacked against him. He’s playing in a loud dome. He’s been making the same mistakes over and over. He may be hitting the “rookie wall”. Still…. Jets 24 Colts 20

Sanchez hasn't looked good at all lately. The Colts are still playing all coy and shit about whether or not they'll play their starters. They did make a roster move that may be telling - they activated a QB from their practice squad. I'll be keeping a close eye on this one tomorrow to see if the Colts deactivate any key players and my dad is going to be in touch with his Vegas connection to see if the line shifts dramatically as game time approaches. I don't see Sanchez pulling this out in Indy if Peyton Manning and the rest of the starters play even a half. I said it last week, and I'll say it again - the Colts have Patriot envy and will try to go undefeated, despite what they might say. Colts 30, Jets 10.

Dallas (9-5) at Washington (4-10) +6.5
The goddamn Cowboys are going to win this goddamn game because the Redskins are so goddamn pathetic. What’s worse is that the best they can hope for is Mike Shanahan to come to the rescue. Jim Zorn sealed his fate when he tried to run the same trick play twice in a row last week. Ye gods. Cowboys 37 Redskins 13.

I didn't watch that game, but it was the first thing one of my co-workers mentioned to me the next day. I was like "What? You can't be serious. You must be explaining it wrong. Don't they have rules about having 5 down linemen for any play?" I never found the answer to that (I can only imagine that special teams has different rules about this?), but I did see the play on Youtube. Ye gods is right. Meanwhile, Romo and the Cowboys showed me something last week in dismantling the Saints in New Orleans. It doesn't mean they're winning a playoff game, but maybe they're slightly better than I've given them credit for. Cowboys 30, Skins 13.

Minnesota (11-3) at Chicago (5-9) +7.5
So last week Carolina figured out what Packers fans have said all year: pressure Favre and you can beat him. The Bears however, aren’t that bright. Minnesota should trounce them with ease, and Brett has something to prove: after he put the smackdown on coach Brad Childress during the game last week, Brett needs to show he’s still got something left in the tank. Has anyone seen Adrian Peterson lately? Vikings 30 Bears 13

This game isn't meaningless for the Vikings. The Eagles can actually pass them for the #2 seed in the NFC. I'm tempted to take the Bears and the points, but I can't talk myself into it. Nothing has been good for the Bears this season. And Devin Hester appears to be out as well. Remember when Chicago was all excited about getting Jay Cutler? How they feeling about that deal now?