We're down to 8 teams left! And after this weekend, it'll be the NFL's Final Four! Can you feel the excitement? Can you?
Well, it's time for our picks! I hope to continue my perfect playoff record, but really I just want Seattle to win its damn game. Just win at least one playoff game, please? Is that too much to ask?
The big topic around the Samichlaus household on Monday was astonishing success Mr. St. Ides had last weekend. I'm not making this up. His 4 - 0 weekend was both a item of pride for our little blog site while stoking enough professional jealousy to get my competitive embers fired up. Realistically though, you must agree you caught a break when Carson Palmer got knocked out of the Cinci - Pittsburgh game on the second play.
Let me also for the record state that St. Ides had these to me on Thursday. For our now apparantly ravaging fans, I apologize for the delay. I also suggest you visit the following web site ASAP: http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/. They were even nice enough to put your name in their URL.
Here's also a quirky thing to note: All 4 of these matchups happened already during the regular season. The results are included in each breakdown. (Notice all the home teams won. And the only game to switch locations is the Skins-Hawks game.)
St. Ides
Last Week: 4-0
Samichlaus
Last Week: 2-2
Redskins +9.5 over SEAHAWKS
Previously met in Week 4 at Washington: Redskins 20-17 (OT)
When this spread opened at 9 points, I was like "Wow, that's a lot of points for a playoff game. It'll settle in around 6 or so by the end of the week." Here we are on Thursday, and it's still 9. I guess enough people think Seattle will crush the Redskins. You can read my entire in-depth longass breakdown of why the Seahawks _should_ win this game in the previous piece. For those of you with shorter attention spans it comes down to 3 things really: 1) The Seattle offense is too good and too balanced to be shut down for an entire game, 2) The Seattle defense is better than most of the numbers show and can most likely keep the average (and beat up) Redskins offense under wraps, and 3) home field advantage. I'm going to take the points, because I can't imagine a blowout. I hope it is, I really hope it's 35-3 at halftime so I can relax a bit, but I get the feeling I'm going to be nervous until the clock has all zeroes on it. Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.
Even the local Redskin biased press is saying the Skins don't have a chance in hell. St. Ides has disected this game as well as anyone could in his previous thesis, err, blog. In fact it was such a well thought out arguement that I've decided to pull the trigger and take the Seahawks. The excruciatingly loud crowd coupled with two and a half weeks of rest will turn the Seahawks into raging Ostriches. On an interesting side note, a local Seattle paper is limiting the use of the word "Redskins" to once per article, the reason being the potential offensive nature of the racially charged moniker. Which made me think: I'll bet somewhere out west, some idiot might read "Seattle is playing Washington" and think "But I thought Seattle was IN Washington!" Seahawks 34 Redskins 17
Patriots +3.5 over BRONCOS
Previously met in Week 6 at Denver: Broncos 28-20
With the injuries to Drew Bress and Carson Palmer, guess who's going to the Pro Bowl… Yes, that's right, the one, the only Jake Plummer. Plummer did have a pretty amazing season, especially considering his lack of interceptions. Generally the knock against Plummer is that he makes bad decisions, allows too many turnovers, and can't win the big game. Well, he's taken care of the first two of those this season. Can he complete the hat trick and knock off the defending champs this weekend? I don't think so. Belichek will have a gameplan to force him into mistakes. And let's face it, he's still Jake Plummer. The Broncos will need to play near perfect ball on both sides to win this, and I don't see it happening. The Patriots are rolling now, and their confidence has got to be high. Plus, doesn't everybody want to see a Colts-Pats AFC Title Game? I know I sure as hell do. Patriots 23, Broncos 20.
When the Patriots played the Broncos in week six I swear that their secondary was running around wearing those "Hello! My name is...." tags. Who were those guys? This week is going to be different. The Patriots sent notice last week, and I know this is cliche, but New England knows how to win playoff football. What makes this game intriguing is Denver's propensity for home victories. Denver expects to win at home, period. In the end though I can not bet against the champs. Fool me once shame on you, fool me eleven times shame on me. This will be a close game but New England wins outright... Patriots 24 Broncos 23
COLTS -9.5 over Steelers
Previously met in Week 12 at Indy: Colts 26-7
Steelers were impressive last week, but it was the Bengals they were up against and Carson Palmer did get knocked out on his second snap. I still think they would have won even it Palmer played the whole game, but that was mostly because the Bengals are a young team with no playoff experience. The Colts have a lot of pressure on them, but I think they have enough talent to get it done and at least get past the Steelers. I mean, how much would it suck if the Patriots did their part to set up the huge AFC Title game, and then the Colts choke and lose? Although Peyton is probably having some flashbacks of playoff choke jobs after watching Eli stink it up last week. The Colts just have too many offensive weapons, and their defense is improved enough this year to not always get into 37-35 shootouts with teams. Colts 27, Steelers 16.
Palmer wouldn't have missed those long passes that Kitna was missing.... OK, I have to let go of the anger. You smoked me fair and square last week. I like the Steelers and the points. They're healthy, can play ball control, and have a good D. The only thing they can't do is win this game. Colts 34 Steelers 28
BEARS -3.5 over Panthers
Previously met in Week 11 in Chicago: Bears 13-3
Tough game to call here. Both defenses are pretty dope. Even the Panthers offense looked pretty good last week running over the Giants. Guess what though, the Bears defense is not the Giants defense. You think Urlacher and friends are going to let the Panthers run for 200+ yards against them in Chicago? I don't think so. I also don't see the Bears letting Steve Smith run wild on them. Who the hell is the Panthers' second WR anyways? Do they even need to worry about covering him? Really, the big thing making me a bit hesitant to pick the Bears is Rex Grossman. Young inexperienced QBs have not faired well so far in the playoffs (see Simms, Eli, Leftwich). In their previous matchup, it was a ridiculous defensive battle, with the only touchdown coming on a 8-yard drive after an interception return. Expect more of the same, with Rex Grossman doing just enough to keep the Bears slightly ahead. Bears 13, Panthers 9.
Cautionary advice: I am a Packers fan, so my vision here might be a bit predjudiced. I'm still not sold on the Bears. And why oh why did Lovie Smith sit Rex Grossman the last game of the season? Did he honestly think Grossman has played too much and needed the rest? Anyway, the Panthers (who I do like) impressed me thoroughly against the Giants. Say what you want about the appropriateness of Tikik Barber's post game comments but they were essentially correct. The Giants were outcoached. John Fox is fast becomming my favorite coach other than the great Mike McCarthy who... God, I can't even type that in a joke.... anyway, I have to go to work so let me curtail this... Panthers 20 Bears 10.
Friday, January 13, 2006
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Should you shoot me now or shoot me later?
I woke up this morning to a note from Mrs. Samichlaus that said the following: "Do not pass go. Do not collect $200.00. Go straight to my journal! Yeah baby!" It was there that I read that the Packers had decided upon their new head coach, a guy named Mike McCarthy, who last season was the 49ers Offensive Coordinator. That would be the same 49ers who were competing for the worst record in football the last week of the season. I was moritified.
To exacerbate the situation, I saw this "press photo" on the lead page. This was the first good look I had at the new coach:
Uh oh. My first thought was "I.Q. in the Mike Tice range".
To exacerbate the situation, I saw this "press photo" on the lead page. This was the first good look I had at the new coach:
Uh oh. My first thought was "I.Q. in the Mike Tice range".
The more I read about McCarthy the more doubts I had. On the positive side, he has the reputation of being a stratight shooter, tell it like it is sort of guy. He hosts an offseason Quarterbacks camp that Seattle's Matt Hasslebeck swears by, and believes in playing young players (almost to a fault: he insisted on playing rookie Alex Smith in San Fransisco over the pedestrian Tim Rattay). On the other hand, he has never been associated with a winning franchise, including Green Bay when he was the quarterbacks coach under the forgetful Ray Rhodes regime. Last season, San Fransisco's offense was ranked dead last.
The more I read, the more the doubts crept in. Despite the best attempts of the Stepfordesque Milwaukee press to spin it, I still wasn't buying into Mike McCarthy.
"Very intense, very intelligent and enthusiastic." Sure, so was my Junior year Latin teacher and no one respected him either.
"He's just a good, solid, down-to-earth guy" Yeah, so was Mike Tice, well until he started scalping Super Bowl tickets.
"McCarthy's father is a retired fireman who later owned a tavern. His parents attended games in New Orleans. Mike used to work in (his fathers) bar. He's from a tough section of Pittsburgh. Bloomfield. Blue-collar all the way. He comes from good stock." Hey, his dad was a fireman AND a bartender? That's like winning the Irish Sweepstakes.
I continued to stuggle with the choice of Mike McCarthy. Is he really the second comming of Mike Tice, or is he in the mold of Philadelphia's Andy Reid as the press has been spinning it. I pondered and waivered and then I came across this:
Oh.
Now I'm happy with the selection.
Note to all SBS fans: Things have picked up again at work, so my day time blogging has been once again curtailed. I will continue to write as often as possible, and yes I am aware that I still owe y'all my Mike Sherman blog, my Marcus Vick blog and a few others too...
Samichlaus
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Why Seattle SHOULD Win This Weekend
In a few days, the Washington Redskins will take the field against the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC Divisional Playoff game. The winner goes to the NFC Conference Championship game. The loser goes home. Depending what you read, the Seahawks are either one of the top 3 teams in the NFL and going to dominate this game, or they're an overrated team who played a weak schedule and they're ready to be upset by the streaking Redskins. Let's take a look at the facts, shall we?
Exhibit A: Week 4 - Redskins 20, Seahawks 17 (OT)
Week 4 was a long time ago, and this was the last game Seattle lost before losing the meaningless game in Green Bay in Week 17. Yes, that's right. They rolled off 11 wins in a row from Week 5 to Week 16. A few blowouts, a few close games. But all wins.
Looking back in that game, Shaun Alexander was "held" to a mere 98 yards on 20 carries and 1 TD. That's 4.9 yards per carry, folks. There were a few things that stood out in this game. First, the Seattle defense was AWFUL on 3rd down, allowing the Skins to keep the chains moving (and their offense off the field) time after time after time. The Redskins 13 for 18 on 3rd down. 13 for 18. 72% success rate. On the season, the Redskins had 42% success on 3rd down. Hasselbeck went 26/38 for 242 yards and 1 TD (no interceptions). Seattle was 6 for 12 on 3rd down. One of the 3rd down conversions for the Redskins came on a key 3rd and long. Brunell threw the ball down the field for Santana Moss, who had to jump for the ball, as it was a bit high. Right behind him, safety Michael Boulware jumped with Moss, and as the ball entered Moss's grip, Boulware poked his hands through and knocked the ball away. Penalty flag. Pass interference, ball spotted inside the Seattle 20, and a TD mere plays later. Replays clearly showed this was an awful call. Boulware did not touch Moss on the way up, he jumped in sync with him, directly behind him, almost touching him, but not. The call was so bad that Holmgren did get an apology from the league a few days later.
Still, despite the defense's inability to get the Skins off the field on 3rd down and this horrendous call, Seattle had a very good chance to win this game. The Redskins defense did a pretty good job of disrupting the rhythm of the offense most of the game, and this offense is all about getting into its rhythm. But when crunch time arrived, they found the rhythm. Trailing 17-10, Seattle took over on their own 9 yard line with about 8 minutes left in the game. Now it wasn't quite a two minute drill since they had a lot of time to work with, but Hasselbeck took the team down the field, converting several 3rd downs and a key 4th down. With 1:23 remaining in the game, he found Darrell Jackson in the end zone for the tying touchdown.
Washington got the ball back, and decided to try and move it down the field. Despite their success on 3rd down all game, they had still only put 17 points on the board. Brunell looked for Clinton Portis for a little dump pass over the middle, but the throw was a little high and behind him. The ball bounced off of Portis' hands, and into the hands of Seattle CB Kelly Herndon. A couple Alexander runs later, and out comes Josh Brown to kick the winning field goal for Seattle. A 47 yarder… hooking… hooking… hooking.. CLANK… off the left upright. No good.
Overtime. The Redskins won the toss, and converted three 3rd downs to drive within range for the winning field goal. Redskins win, 20-17.
Now, that's not what I would exactly call a convincing win. And the game was in DC. This time the game is in Seattle, where the crowd has been so loud at times this year that they forced 9 false starts against the Giants offensive line.
Exhibit B: The Offense
Here's our top 2 offensive players:
Matt Hasselbeck - Top Rated Passer in the NFC (4th in the NFL)
Shaun Alexander - NFL Leading Rusher, Single-Season Touchdown Record Holder, NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year
And here's some team numbers:
#2 Overall Offense (was #1 most of the season, the meaningless Green Bay game probably prevented the team from finishing #1)
#3 Rushing Offense
#13 Passing Offense (who has to throw when you're ahead in most games?)
#1 Scoring Offense (28.3 points per game. Yes, more than the Colts)
#7 Turnover Ratio (+9.. Including the 2nd lowest number of turnovers, only 17 all season. That's barely one turnover per game)
#5 Sacks Allowed (27 Sacks Allowed in 474 attempts, or 1 sack every 17.5 attempts)
#1 Offensive TDs (29 rushing, 25 passing, 54 total offensive TDs.. Oh, and for the record, Alexander had more TDs than several entire teams)
Here's my point - the Seattle offense is well-balanced and has many weapons. Both Hasselbeck and Alexander are having the best seasons of their career. Hasselbeck only threw 9 interceptions all year, and only 2 in his last 7 games. (Only Jake Plummer had less among QBs who started the entire season. Jake Plummer?!?!) Brett Favre had 29, more than 3 times as many. (In fairness to Favre and his decimated offense, Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe, and Aaron Brooks had 17 each, the next closest.)
And you may be tired of hearing it, but a big reason why the Seahawks offense is so good this year comes down to one thing : Blocking. Left tackle Walter Jones, left guard Steve Hutchinson, and fullback Mack Strong all made the All Pro team and are starting in the Pro Bowl. The right side of the line is pretty solid too. And even when teams KNOW the run is coming to the left, they can not stop it. You know how in the old Tecmo Bowl Nintendo game, when there were only 4 plays on offense and defense, and if the defense called the identical play as the offense, the offense would get swarmed and instantly stopped for a loss? That's what the defenses are like when Seattle gets the ball at the goal line. They have the play called. They have the formation they want. And they still can't stop the play. Not only do they blow open holes for Alexander to run through (and by TMQ's unofficial count, was untouched by a defending player on 15 of his 28 touchdowns), but they give Hasselbeck plenty of time to throw. Four man rushes rarely gets through to him. Blitzes are usually picked up well. I know it's not exciting, but the offensive line wins or loses games for teams.
Speaking of TMQ, here's what he had to say about his annual Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP, an award he gives out every year:
"The Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP: Walter Jones, Seattle. There's a reason Alexander led the league in rushing, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason Alexander had 15 untouched touchdown runs, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason most of Alexander's record-setting tally of touchdowns occurred when he was running left, and that reason is that the left side of Seattle's line -- Jones at tackle and guard Steve Hutchison -- is fabulous. Repeatedly this season, Jones just leveled the man in front of him, even when the defense expected Alexander to run left: for instance in the Blue Men Group-Eagles game on Monday Night Football. Repeatedly when Alexander broke into the secondary, the very large Jones has hustled to accompany him: Check the tape of Alexander's 52-yard touchdown against Tennessee, Jones made the finishing block 20 yards downfield. And repeatedly, Jones got no help in passing blocking: not needing a back or tight end to help the left tackle freed more targets for the Hawks' passing game. If ever an offensive lineman should have been the NFL MVP, it was this year, and it was Walter Jones."
Now, all that said… sure, a good defense can have a good gameplan and good execution any day of the week and be successful against a good offense. I just don't see it happening with the Redskins, and here's why. Without going into too much depth breaking down the entire Redskins offense, I'll just say that their front four doesn't get a ton of pressure, especially now with their starting tackle out with a fractured arm. They'll need to blitz to get to Hasselbeck, and blitzing too much is not a good idea - as TMQ will tell you, blitzing on defense gets you burnt more times than not. As much press as Alexander has (finally) gotten this season, Seattle uses the pass to set up the run. Quick slants and curls by the WRs, hooks by the TE. High-percentage completion passes. Oh, I almost forgot to mention… Hasselbeck set a record for highest completion percentage in a month for December. Something ridiculous like 73% completions. Anyways, when Seattle gets the ball Saturday, don't be surprised when you see passes on the first 3 or 4 plays. It's all part of their master plan to create some space in the second lair for Alexander to carve up. And you know what - it works.
Exhibit C: The Defense
Wow, this is getting long. I'll try and keep this section short.. This is NOT the same defense we've had the past few years. Rookie middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu was 2nd in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting and was named defensive second captain (whatever that means) for the playoffs. Tackles Marcus Tubbs, Chuck Darby, and Rocky Bernard have been excellent against both the pass and run while working a rotation to stay fresh. Seattle's defense quietly led the entire league with 50 sacks, spreading it out so that no single player had double digits. The only 100 yard rusher they allowed all season long was Tiki Barber, and Tiki needed OT to get over the century mark. (Yes, that includes Clinton Portis, who rushed for 90 yards on 25 attempts in Week 4, a 3.6 average. The Seattle defense was 5th in rushing yards allowed. 25th in passing yards allowed. But that's a bit deceptive. Teams were often behind early and big against Seattle, so they were throwing a lot, and got a lot of passing yardage late in games during garbage time. Teams threw against them a 4th-most 571 times. That's 35 pass attempts per game. That's a lot.
Anyways, here's the most important stat: 7th in points allowed, allowing only 16.9 points per game. During the latter part of the season, announcers and writers were fond of saying they had a "bend but not break" defense. They'd give up yardage, but once the opposing team got into the red zone, they often clamped down and held them to field goals. Points win games, not yardage.
Let's look at the Redskins offense:
Mark Brunell - a 35 year old quarterback who has been up and down all season and has a brace the size of Texas on his knee. He threw for just 41 yards last week. All game. Carson Palmer was in for 2 snaps before injuring his knee, and threw for more yards than Brunell.
Clinton Portis - his outside speed scares me a little, but our defense has been good against the run all year, and haven't given up big plays. I expect him to get the ball a lot, but can't see him suddenly having a breakout game.
Santana Moss - a scary weapon. But who are the other Redskins WRs? Can't name them? Exactly. No reason not to double team Moss. Moss had 6 catches for 87 yards in Week 4.
Chris Cooley - a tight end/fullback type who has recently become more involved in their passing game. As long as a linebacker keeps an eye on him, he's containable.
Oh, and our top 3 CBs are all healthy together for the first time since like Week 3. Trufant, Dyson, and Herndon aren't Pro Bowl names, but they're solid. After going up the Bucanneers defense last weekend, Redskins fans are trumpeting "Our offense is good! The Seahawks defense is no Tampa Bay defense!" I think people underestimate our defense.
Exhibit D: Home Field Advantage
Anybody remember the Giants game? The crowd was deafening. Eli Manning took two timeouts in the first quarter because he couldn't hear himself think. The Giants offensive line had a whopping 9 false starts against them. That's 45 yards right there (more than Brunell threw for last week). The Seattle fans are starting to believe. They will be louder than ever, and if you don't think they'll be even louder this week… well, they will be.
The Redskins were 4-4 on the road this season. Their wins? At Dallas in Week 2 (where Moss had those two long TD catches late to pull out the miraculous win), at Arizona (an unimpressive 17-13 win), at St. Louis (24-9), and at Philly in Week 17 (against a Philly team with nothing to play for, and I think they even had Koy Detmer in at QB for a bit. The Redskins led only 24-20 until a fumble was returned for a TD with 2:16 left in the game to give them the 31-20 win.) Yes, they pulled off the impressive win in Tampa Bay last weekend. It took two Chris Simms interceptions and another fumble returned for a TD to give them the win though.
And how about that flight? Seattle has been resting up, getting healthy, going home every night, and generally focusing on the task at hand for weeks now. The Redskins have been battling for their playoff lives, getting even more banged up, and traveling from Washington to Tampa back to Washington then to Seattle. Seattle is a pretty long flight from Washington and has a timezone difference that can sometimes cause a little jet lag. Going from East to West is a bit easier than going from West to East (where 1pm EST games start at 10am PST), but it'll still effect the body. Sure, the Redskins are professionals and have done it before, right? Well, maybe. Their only game in the Pacific Time Zone was at Arizona. So they're not exactly used to it.
Anyways, that's my case. Is it convincing enough to think Seattle should win on Saturday? I think so. Am I still nervous? Well, yeah, anything can happen on any day in the NFL. Really, as long as the offense holds onto the ball, I don't see the Redskins outscoring this team. I'll give you my prediction right now anyways: Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.
Exhibit A: Week 4 - Redskins 20, Seahawks 17 (OT)
Week 4 was a long time ago, and this was the last game Seattle lost before losing the meaningless game in Green Bay in Week 17. Yes, that's right. They rolled off 11 wins in a row from Week 5 to Week 16. A few blowouts, a few close games. But all wins.
Looking back in that game, Shaun Alexander was "held" to a mere 98 yards on 20 carries and 1 TD. That's 4.9 yards per carry, folks. There were a few things that stood out in this game. First, the Seattle defense was AWFUL on 3rd down, allowing the Skins to keep the chains moving (and their offense off the field) time after time after time. The Redskins 13 for 18 on 3rd down. 13 for 18. 72% success rate. On the season, the Redskins had 42% success on 3rd down. Hasselbeck went 26/38 for 242 yards and 1 TD (no interceptions). Seattle was 6 for 12 on 3rd down. One of the 3rd down conversions for the Redskins came on a key 3rd and long. Brunell threw the ball down the field for Santana Moss, who had to jump for the ball, as it was a bit high. Right behind him, safety Michael Boulware jumped with Moss, and as the ball entered Moss's grip, Boulware poked his hands through and knocked the ball away. Penalty flag. Pass interference, ball spotted inside the Seattle 20, and a TD mere plays later. Replays clearly showed this was an awful call. Boulware did not touch Moss on the way up, he jumped in sync with him, directly behind him, almost touching him, but not. The call was so bad that Holmgren did get an apology from the league a few days later.
Still, despite the defense's inability to get the Skins off the field on 3rd down and this horrendous call, Seattle had a very good chance to win this game. The Redskins defense did a pretty good job of disrupting the rhythm of the offense most of the game, and this offense is all about getting into its rhythm. But when crunch time arrived, they found the rhythm. Trailing 17-10, Seattle took over on their own 9 yard line with about 8 minutes left in the game. Now it wasn't quite a two minute drill since they had a lot of time to work with, but Hasselbeck took the team down the field, converting several 3rd downs and a key 4th down. With 1:23 remaining in the game, he found Darrell Jackson in the end zone for the tying touchdown.
Washington got the ball back, and decided to try and move it down the field. Despite their success on 3rd down all game, they had still only put 17 points on the board. Brunell looked for Clinton Portis for a little dump pass over the middle, but the throw was a little high and behind him. The ball bounced off of Portis' hands, and into the hands of Seattle CB Kelly Herndon. A couple Alexander runs later, and out comes Josh Brown to kick the winning field goal for Seattle. A 47 yarder… hooking… hooking… hooking.. CLANK… off the left upright. No good.
Overtime. The Redskins won the toss, and converted three 3rd downs to drive within range for the winning field goal. Redskins win, 20-17.
Now, that's not what I would exactly call a convincing win. And the game was in DC. This time the game is in Seattle, where the crowd has been so loud at times this year that they forced 9 false starts against the Giants offensive line.
Exhibit B: The Offense
Here's our top 2 offensive players:
Matt Hasselbeck - Top Rated Passer in the NFC (4th in the NFL)
Shaun Alexander - NFL Leading Rusher, Single-Season Touchdown Record Holder, NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year
And here's some team numbers:
#2 Overall Offense (was #1 most of the season, the meaningless Green Bay game probably prevented the team from finishing #1)
#3 Rushing Offense
#13 Passing Offense (who has to throw when you're ahead in most games?)
#1 Scoring Offense (28.3 points per game. Yes, more than the Colts)
#7 Turnover Ratio (+9.. Including the 2nd lowest number of turnovers, only 17 all season. That's barely one turnover per game)
#5 Sacks Allowed (27 Sacks Allowed in 474 attempts, or 1 sack every 17.5 attempts)
#1 Offensive TDs (29 rushing, 25 passing, 54 total offensive TDs.. Oh, and for the record, Alexander had more TDs than several entire teams)
Here's my point - the Seattle offense is well-balanced and has many weapons. Both Hasselbeck and Alexander are having the best seasons of their career. Hasselbeck only threw 9 interceptions all year, and only 2 in his last 7 games. (Only Jake Plummer had less among QBs who started the entire season. Jake Plummer?!?!) Brett Favre had 29, more than 3 times as many. (In fairness to Favre and his decimated offense, Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe, and Aaron Brooks had 17 each, the next closest.)
And you may be tired of hearing it, but a big reason why the Seahawks offense is so good this year comes down to one thing : Blocking. Left tackle Walter Jones, left guard Steve Hutchinson, and fullback Mack Strong all made the All Pro team and are starting in the Pro Bowl. The right side of the line is pretty solid too. And even when teams KNOW the run is coming to the left, they can not stop it. You know how in the old Tecmo Bowl Nintendo game, when there were only 4 plays on offense and defense, and if the defense called the identical play as the offense, the offense would get swarmed and instantly stopped for a loss? That's what the defenses are like when Seattle gets the ball at the goal line. They have the play called. They have the formation they want. And they still can't stop the play. Not only do they blow open holes for Alexander to run through (and by TMQ's unofficial count, was untouched by a defending player on 15 of his 28 touchdowns), but they give Hasselbeck plenty of time to throw. Four man rushes rarely gets through to him. Blitzes are usually picked up well. I know it's not exciting, but the offensive line wins or loses games for teams.
Speaking of TMQ, here's what he had to say about his annual Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP, an award he gives out every year:
"The Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP: Walter Jones, Seattle. There's a reason Alexander led the league in rushing, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason Alexander had 15 untouched touchdown runs, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason most of Alexander's record-setting tally of touchdowns occurred when he was running left, and that reason is that the left side of Seattle's line -- Jones at tackle and guard Steve Hutchison -- is fabulous. Repeatedly this season, Jones just leveled the man in front of him, even when the defense expected Alexander to run left: for instance in the Blue Men Group-Eagles game on Monday Night Football. Repeatedly when Alexander broke into the secondary, the very large Jones has hustled to accompany him: Check the tape of Alexander's 52-yard touchdown against Tennessee, Jones made the finishing block 20 yards downfield. And repeatedly, Jones got no help in passing blocking: not needing a back or tight end to help the left tackle freed more targets for the Hawks' passing game. If ever an offensive lineman should have been the NFL MVP, it was this year, and it was Walter Jones."
Now, all that said… sure, a good defense can have a good gameplan and good execution any day of the week and be successful against a good offense. I just don't see it happening with the Redskins, and here's why. Without going into too much depth breaking down the entire Redskins offense, I'll just say that their front four doesn't get a ton of pressure, especially now with their starting tackle out with a fractured arm. They'll need to blitz to get to Hasselbeck, and blitzing too much is not a good idea - as TMQ will tell you, blitzing on defense gets you burnt more times than not. As much press as Alexander has (finally) gotten this season, Seattle uses the pass to set up the run. Quick slants and curls by the WRs, hooks by the TE. High-percentage completion passes. Oh, I almost forgot to mention… Hasselbeck set a record for highest completion percentage in a month for December. Something ridiculous like 73% completions. Anyways, when Seattle gets the ball Saturday, don't be surprised when you see passes on the first 3 or 4 plays. It's all part of their master plan to create some space in the second lair for Alexander to carve up. And you know what - it works.
Exhibit C: The Defense
Wow, this is getting long. I'll try and keep this section short.. This is NOT the same defense we've had the past few years. Rookie middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu was 2nd in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting and was named defensive second captain (whatever that means) for the playoffs. Tackles Marcus Tubbs, Chuck Darby, and Rocky Bernard have been excellent against both the pass and run while working a rotation to stay fresh. Seattle's defense quietly led the entire league with 50 sacks, spreading it out so that no single player had double digits. The only 100 yard rusher they allowed all season long was Tiki Barber, and Tiki needed OT to get over the century mark. (Yes, that includes Clinton Portis, who rushed for 90 yards on 25 attempts in Week 4, a 3.6 average. The Seattle defense was 5th in rushing yards allowed. 25th in passing yards allowed. But that's a bit deceptive. Teams were often behind early and big against Seattle, so they were throwing a lot, and got a lot of passing yardage late in games during garbage time. Teams threw against them a 4th-most 571 times. That's 35 pass attempts per game. That's a lot.
Anyways, here's the most important stat: 7th in points allowed, allowing only 16.9 points per game. During the latter part of the season, announcers and writers were fond of saying they had a "bend but not break" defense. They'd give up yardage, but once the opposing team got into the red zone, they often clamped down and held them to field goals. Points win games, not yardage.
Let's look at the Redskins offense:
Mark Brunell - a 35 year old quarterback who has been up and down all season and has a brace the size of Texas on his knee. He threw for just 41 yards last week. All game. Carson Palmer was in for 2 snaps before injuring his knee, and threw for more yards than Brunell.
Clinton Portis - his outside speed scares me a little, but our defense has been good against the run all year, and haven't given up big plays. I expect him to get the ball a lot, but can't see him suddenly having a breakout game.
Santana Moss - a scary weapon. But who are the other Redskins WRs? Can't name them? Exactly. No reason not to double team Moss. Moss had 6 catches for 87 yards in Week 4.
Chris Cooley - a tight end/fullback type who has recently become more involved in their passing game. As long as a linebacker keeps an eye on him, he's containable.
Oh, and our top 3 CBs are all healthy together for the first time since like Week 3. Trufant, Dyson, and Herndon aren't Pro Bowl names, but they're solid. After going up the Bucanneers defense last weekend, Redskins fans are trumpeting "Our offense is good! The Seahawks defense is no Tampa Bay defense!" I think people underestimate our defense.
Exhibit D: Home Field Advantage
Anybody remember the Giants game? The crowd was deafening. Eli Manning took two timeouts in the first quarter because he couldn't hear himself think. The Giants offensive line had a whopping 9 false starts against them. That's 45 yards right there (more than Brunell threw for last week). The Seattle fans are starting to believe. They will be louder than ever, and if you don't think they'll be even louder this week… well, they will be.
The Redskins were 4-4 on the road this season. Their wins? At Dallas in Week 2 (where Moss had those two long TD catches late to pull out the miraculous win), at Arizona (an unimpressive 17-13 win), at St. Louis (24-9), and at Philly in Week 17 (against a Philly team with nothing to play for, and I think they even had Koy Detmer in at QB for a bit. The Redskins led only 24-20 until a fumble was returned for a TD with 2:16 left in the game to give them the 31-20 win.) Yes, they pulled off the impressive win in Tampa Bay last weekend. It took two Chris Simms interceptions and another fumble returned for a TD to give them the win though.
And how about that flight? Seattle has been resting up, getting healthy, going home every night, and generally focusing on the task at hand for weeks now. The Redskins have been battling for their playoff lives, getting even more banged up, and traveling from Washington to Tampa back to Washington then to Seattle. Seattle is a pretty long flight from Washington and has a timezone difference that can sometimes cause a little jet lag. Going from East to West is a bit easier than going from West to East (where 1pm EST games start at 10am PST), but it'll still effect the body. Sure, the Redskins are professionals and have done it before, right? Well, maybe. Their only game in the Pacific Time Zone was at Arizona. So they're not exactly used to it.
Anyways, that's my case. Is it convincing enough to think Seattle should win on Saturday? I think so. Am I still nervous? Well, yeah, anything can happen on any day in the NFL. Really, as long as the offense holds onto the ball, I don't see the Redskins outscoring this team. I'll give you my prediction right now anyways: Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.
Monday, January 9, 2006
Upon Further Review - Wildcard Weekend!
Well, we did this review stuff fairly inconsistently during the season, but figure it's easy to pick it up again during the playoffs since there's so few games to look at… And this week, I'd like to look more closely at my incorrect picks… Oh wait, there were none! That's right folks, St. Ides is off to a red-hot postseason start, going 4-0 this past weekend with his picks. But let's talk about them anyways…
St. Ides said: Redskins +3.5 over BUCANNEERS, 18-20
Actual Score: Redskins 17-10
I REALLY wanted to take the Skins, but didn't want to take 3 road teams to win outright, but I did take the points. (Even though 3 road teams DID wind up winning outright.) Here's the key quote:
"I think Simms is probably more turnover prone than Brunell, but only slightly." I should have written a bit more about how playoff games usually come down to the QB, and it was the case here too. Simms threw two key picks, including one to kill their chances of forcing OT on the final drive. Both balls were tipped at the line, but that's still got to be pinned on him. Anyways, now the Redskins go to Seattle for the Divisional Round game on Saturday, but we'll save analysis of that one for later in the week.
St. Ides said: PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jaguars, 24-13
Actual Score: Patriots 28-3
Here's some stuff I said that seems about right: "They're putting Byron Leftwich back in at QB, and it's not much of a stretch to say he'll be rusty. That rust could result in a turnover or two early which puts them playing from behind all game, and pretty much done. The Jaguars defense didn't impress me much, and some predictions that they'd be a great no-name defense seems a bit off."
What I failed to mention is how Fred Taylor wouldn’t do jack in this game. Leftwich wasn't awful, but he surely didn't make any big plays to put the team in position to win.
St. Ides said: Carolina +2.5 over GIANTS, 20-16
Actual Score: Panthers 23-0
I won't quote the whole thing I wrote, you can go look it up if you really want, but I was pretty dead on here. Except I expected the Giants to at least get on the damn scoreboard. And the Manning tradition continues, like so: "I believe it is the fate of Eli Manning to follow in the foosteps of his brother at this point: look pretty good during the regular season, and then choke in the playoffs." On one hand, I'm glad the Giants are gone because I hate Shockey so damn much. On the other hand, I would have liked to have beaten them ourselves, as Eli surely would have played even worse on the road. And the Panthers scare me a little. In fact, even before this past weekend, Jake Delhomme was the only NFC QB that I think scares me. He still is.
St. Ides said: Steelers -3.5 over BENGALS, 27-24
Actual Score: Steelers 31-17
Obviously, the whole complexion of this game changed once Carson Palmer went out with that knee injury, and former Seahawk Jon Kitna came in. He didn't play horribly, but it just wasn't going to get it done. Here's what I said before the game: "I do like the Bengals offense, but they're still pretty young and inexperienced. And the Bengals defense isn't exactly great. Look for the Bus to carry a few people into the end zone, and for Big Ben to continue to make me regret calling him an over-hyped Trent Dilfer."
That's pretty much what happened, the Bengals defense just couldn't keep it together. And did you see that trick play with the direct snap to Randel-El, who threw it back across the field to Big Ben, who threw it 40 yards for the TD? That was the nail in the proverbial coffin for the Bengals. Tough break about Palmer, but I don't think they would have won this game even with him in.
Anyways, next week gives us:
Washington +9.5 at Seattle
New England +3.5 at Denver
Pittsburgh +9.5 at Indy
Carolina +3.5 at Chicago
Winners go to the Conference Championship Games, losers go home. Look for more analysis all week, especially taking a closer look at Seattle's chances.
St. Ides said: Redskins +3.5 over BUCANNEERS, 18-20
Actual Score: Redskins 17-10
I REALLY wanted to take the Skins, but didn't want to take 3 road teams to win outright, but I did take the points. (Even though 3 road teams DID wind up winning outright.) Here's the key quote:
"I think Simms is probably more turnover prone than Brunell, but only slightly." I should have written a bit more about how playoff games usually come down to the QB, and it was the case here too. Simms threw two key picks, including one to kill their chances of forcing OT on the final drive. Both balls were tipped at the line, but that's still got to be pinned on him. Anyways, now the Redskins go to Seattle for the Divisional Round game on Saturday, but we'll save analysis of that one for later in the week.
St. Ides said: PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jaguars, 24-13
Actual Score: Patriots 28-3
Here's some stuff I said that seems about right: "They're putting Byron Leftwich back in at QB, and it's not much of a stretch to say he'll be rusty. That rust could result in a turnover or two early which puts them playing from behind all game, and pretty much done. The Jaguars defense didn't impress me much, and some predictions that they'd be a great no-name defense seems a bit off."
What I failed to mention is how Fred Taylor wouldn’t do jack in this game. Leftwich wasn't awful, but he surely didn't make any big plays to put the team in position to win.
St. Ides said: Carolina +2.5 over GIANTS, 20-16
Actual Score: Panthers 23-0
I won't quote the whole thing I wrote, you can go look it up if you really want, but I was pretty dead on here. Except I expected the Giants to at least get on the damn scoreboard. And the Manning tradition continues, like so: "I believe it is the fate of Eli Manning to follow in the foosteps of his brother at this point: look pretty good during the regular season, and then choke in the playoffs." On one hand, I'm glad the Giants are gone because I hate Shockey so damn much. On the other hand, I would have liked to have beaten them ourselves, as Eli surely would have played even worse on the road. And the Panthers scare me a little. In fact, even before this past weekend, Jake Delhomme was the only NFC QB that I think scares me. He still is.
St. Ides said: Steelers -3.5 over BENGALS, 27-24
Actual Score: Steelers 31-17
Obviously, the whole complexion of this game changed once Carson Palmer went out with that knee injury, and former Seahawk Jon Kitna came in. He didn't play horribly, but it just wasn't going to get it done. Here's what I said before the game: "I do like the Bengals offense, but they're still pretty young and inexperienced. And the Bengals defense isn't exactly great. Look for the Bus to carry a few people into the end zone, and for Big Ben to continue to make me regret calling him an over-hyped Trent Dilfer."
That's pretty much what happened, the Bengals defense just couldn't keep it together. And did you see that trick play with the direct snap to Randel-El, who threw it back across the field to Big Ben, who threw it 40 yards for the TD? That was the nail in the proverbial coffin for the Bengals. Tough break about Palmer, but I don't think they would have won this game even with him in.
Anyways, next week gives us:
Washington +9.5 at Seattle
New England +3.5 at Denver
Pittsburgh +9.5 at Indy
Carolina +3.5 at Chicago
Winners go to the Conference Championship Games, losers go home. Look for more analysis all week, especially taking a closer look at Seattle's chances.
Thursday, January 5, 2006
Playoff Time! Wildcard Picks
It's playoff time!!!
Wild Card Weekend. I love this time of year, and am an extra notch of excited for two reasons: 1) Seattle being the #1 seed in the NFC and having their best shot in franchice history of making the Super Bowl and 2) the excellent assortment of college bowl games these past few days, capped by an excellent title game.
We'll wipe our records clean for the playoffs. But here's the final standings:
Samichlaus
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 130-125
St. Ides
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-130
Completely opposite records. But only 5 games apart. However, that 5 games is the difference between winning and losing money on the season. So nice job to my partner, who beat me… This time.. I'll just have to go perfect in the playoffs to even it up.
Thanks for the accolades partner! You made a great run during the second half, and at one point had me giving serious consideration to simply maing the exact same picks as you just to preserve my lead, but where's the fun in that? That's like those guys who constantly rotate pitchers in the fantasy leagues.
Oh, and congratulations to the NFL's MVP Shawn Alexander who narrowly beat Peyton Manning for the honor. Alexander's award insures that Brett Favre will remain the only three time MVP winner for at least another year.
Oh yeah, I wanted to mention that too, thanks for reminding me! Shaun Alexander won the NFL MVP award. Good for him, he deserved it. I also feel extra specially vindicated cause morons like Peter King and Dr. Z were hyping Tom Brady and Tiki Barber (who finished 3rd and 4th behind Alexander and Manning).
Redskins +3.5 over BUCANNEERS
When these two teams played during the regular season, it was a gutsy call by Gruden to go for 2 points at the end of the game that won the game by one point. So these two teams are pretty evenly matched. I'd say the Skins have a slightly better offense, but the Bucs have a more opportunistic defense. Plus, Mark Brunell has been to the playoffs before. Chris Simms is still young, and really in his first extended role as a starting QB. Just because Mark Brunell has been there before doesn't mean he's played well. And I think the Tampa defense can keep the Skins offense in check. Really, their only WR who catches the ball is Santana Moss, and I think Ronde Barber can keep him relatively quiet. Here's a cliché for you: This game will come down to turnovers. I think Simms is probably more turnover prone than Brunell, but only slightly. I don't want to take 3 road teams to win outright, so I'll say the Bucs hang on to win, but just barely. Bucs 20, Skins 18.
I like the Redskins too, but I think the Skins go into Tampa and pull off the upset win. There is no team with more momentum going into the playoffs than the Skins, winners of their last 5 in a row. Their defense is one of the best in the business and will have no problems shutting down the inexperienced Simms. Conversely, St. Ides brings up several good points. The key matchup between Ronde Barber and Santana Moss leans towards Barber, but the real star for Washington will be Clinton Portis. I imagine Portis will bust a few hefty runs, just enough to soften Tampa's defense and give the Skins the win. Washington 24 Tampa Bay 17
PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jaguars
Anonymous pointed out that nobody is giving the Jaguars a chance in this game, and the spread is too big. I think he's simply trying my good ol' "reverse jinx" trick. I'm not biting. They're putting Byron Leftwich back in at QB, and it's not much of a stretch to say he'll be rusty. That rust could result in a turnover or two early which puts them playing from behind all game, and pretty much done. The Jaguars defense didn't impress me much, and some predictions that they'd be a great no-name defense seems a bit off. Plus, people make a big deal about soft schedules of Seattle and Chicago, here's some of the teams the Jags have beaten: Houston (twice), Tennessee (twice), Baltimore, Arizona, the Jets, San Fran, Cleveland, and St. Louis. That's 10 frickin games right there (TEN) that were against pretty bad teams. They did somehow manage to beat Seattle, Cinci, and Pittsburgh, but that was early on, in Weeks 1, 4, and 5. Meanwhile, the Pats have gotten healthy, Dillon and Faulk are back to give their running game some life, and Tom Brady is spouting off about "disrespect" again. Yes, they are the champs until someone else beats them. The Jags don't get it done. Patriots 24, Jaguars 13.
Leftwich seals the deal on this one. If the Jags had any chance of keeping it close, they don't any more. Rest makes rust and Byron's going to look like the Tin Man after the snow storm. I think you're right about Anonymous's "reverse jinx". The point is why? New England is going to dominate this game on both sides of the ball. I'll take the Patriots. Patriots 31 Jaguars 6
Carolina +2.5 over GIANTS
I believe it is the fate of Eli Manning to follow in the foosteps of his brother at this point: look pretty good during the regular season, and then choke in the playoffs. Of course, of late, it's debatable if he's even looked pretty good in the regular season. His accuracy is a bit off. He seems to have the happy feet when he feels pressure. Shockey is banged up. Teams will be stacking the line against Tiki. And then there's their defense. Something like their top 5 linebackers are out, to the point where they signed the 72-year old Roman Phifer. Their only hope is to pressure Delhomme constantly from the ends, something they can do. But DeShaun Foster has looked better running the ball of late, and none of the Giants corners will be able to contain Steve Smith. This could get ugly is the Giants give up an early turnover or two. A lot of Giants fans have been mouthing off saying how they'll kick Seattle's ass in the rematch. Worry about the Panthers first, peoples. Panthers 20, Giants 16.
They signed Roman Pfifer? What, Dick Butkis was unavailable? OK, I like the Giants in this game. Now, I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers, who I like a lot, but the Giants have been literally blowing people up on the line of scrimmage. If there was an MVP award for the second half of the season, Tiki Barber would win it. I have never seen a more dominating second half of a season. With that said, I think the Gints win by a field goal against a very well coached team. Giants 23 Panthers 20
Steelers -3.5 over BENGALS
The Bengals are GETTING points at home in the playoffs?!? That can only mean one thing - Vegas thinks the Steelers are going to SMOKE them. And you know what, I tend to agree. They've gotten hot down the stretch, their defense is playing well, and they want a bit of revenge against the Bengals. The Bengals were confident a few weeks ago, but sort of limped into the playoffs with a couple unimpressive outings. I do like the Bengals offense, but they're still pretty young and inexperienced. And the Bengals defense isn't exactly great. Look for the Bus to carry a few people into the end zone, and for Big Ben to continue to make me regret calling him an over-hyped Trent Dilfer. Steelers 27, Bengals 24.
Oh yeah, I forgot about that Rothelisberger - Dilfer comparison. Whoopsie. I can't believe that the Bengals are going to lose this game, what with the best young quarterback in football. Just a thought: did Boomer Esiason simply forget about Big Ben when he made that analysis? Anyway, I like Pittsburgh a lot but in the end I'm taking the home team and the points: Bengals 24 Steelers 20
Wild Card Weekend. I love this time of year, and am an extra notch of excited for two reasons: 1) Seattle being the #1 seed in the NFC and having their best shot in franchice history of making the Super Bowl and 2) the excellent assortment of college bowl games these past few days, capped by an excellent title game.
We'll wipe our records clean for the playoffs. But here's the final standings:
Samichlaus
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 130-125
St. Ides
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-130
Completely opposite records. But only 5 games apart. However, that 5 games is the difference between winning and losing money on the season. So nice job to my partner, who beat me… This time.. I'll just have to go perfect in the playoffs to even it up.
Thanks for the accolades partner! You made a great run during the second half, and at one point had me giving serious consideration to simply maing the exact same picks as you just to preserve my lead, but where's the fun in that? That's like those guys who constantly rotate pitchers in the fantasy leagues.
Oh, and congratulations to the NFL's MVP Shawn Alexander who narrowly beat Peyton Manning for the honor. Alexander's award insures that Brett Favre will remain the only three time MVP winner for at least another year.
Oh yeah, I wanted to mention that too, thanks for reminding me! Shaun Alexander won the NFL MVP award. Good for him, he deserved it. I also feel extra specially vindicated cause morons like Peter King and Dr. Z were hyping Tom Brady and Tiki Barber (who finished 3rd and 4th behind Alexander and Manning).
Redskins +3.5 over BUCANNEERS
When these two teams played during the regular season, it was a gutsy call by Gruden to go for 2 points at the end of the game that won the game by one point. So these two teams are pretty evenly matched. I'd say the Skins have a slightly better offense, but the Bucs have a more opportunistic defense. Plus, Mark Brunell has been to the playoffs before. Chris Simms is still young, and really in his first extended role as a starting QB. Just because Mark Brunell has been there before doesn't mean he's played well. And I think the Tampa defense can keep the Skins offense in check. Really, their only WR who catches the ball is Santana Moss, and I think Ronde Barber can keep him relatively quiet. Here's a cliché for you: This game will come down to turnovers. I think Simms is probably more turnover prone than Brunell, but only slightly. I don't want to take 3 road teams to win outright, so I'll say the Bucs hang on to win, but just barely. Bucs 20, Skins 18.
I like the Redskins too, but I think the Skins go into Tampa and pull off the upset win. There is no team with more momentum going into the playoffs than the Skins, winners of their last 5 in a row. Their defense is one of the best in the business and will have no problems shutting down the inexperienced Simms. Conversely, St. Ides brings up several good points. The key matchup between Ronde Barber and Santana Moss leans towards Barber, but the real star for Washington will be Clinton Portis. I imagine Portis will bust a few hefty runs, just enough to soften Tampa's defense and give the Skins the win. Washington 24 Tampa Bay 17
PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jaguars
Anonymous pointed out that nobody is giving the Jaguars a chance in this game, and the spread is too big. I think he's simply trying my good ol' "reverse jinx" trick. I'm not biting. They're putting Byron Leftwich back in at QB, and it's not much of a stretch to say he'll be rusty. That rust could result in a turnover or two early which puts them playing from behind all game, and pretty much done. The Jaguars defense didn't impress me much, and some predictions that they'd be a great no-name defense seems a bit off. Plus, people make a big deal about soft schedules of Seattle and Chicago, here's some of the teams the Jags have beaten: Houston (twice), Tennessee (twice), Baltimore, Arizona, the Jets, San Fran, Cleveland, and St. Louis. That's 10 frickin games right there (TEN) that were against pretty bad teams. They did somehow manage to beat Seattle, Cinci, and Pittsburgh, but that was early on, in Weeks 1, 4, and 5. Meanwhile, the Pats have gotten healthy, Dillon and Faulk are back to give their running game some life, and Tom Brady is spouting off about "disrespect" again. Yes, they are the champs until someone else beats them. The Jags don't get it done. Patriots 24, Jaguars 13.
Leftwich seals the deal on this one. If the Jags had any chance of keeping it close, they don't any more. Rest makes rust and Byron's going to look like the Tin Man after the snow storm. I think you're right about Anonymous's "reverse jinx". The point is why? New England is going to dominate this game on both sides of the ball. I'll take the Patriots. Patriots 31 Jaguars 6
Carolina +2.5 over GIANTS
I believe it is the fate of Eli Manning to follow in the foosteps of his brother at this point: look pretty good during the regular season, and then choke in the playoffs. Of course, of late, it's debatable if he's even looked pretty good in the regular season. His accuracy is a bit off. He seems to have the happy feet when he feels pressure. Shockey is banged up. Teams will be stacking the line against Tiki. And then there's their defense. Something like their top 5 linebackers are out, to the point where they signed the 72-year old Roman Phifer. Their only hope is to pressure Delhomme constantly from the ends, something they can do. But DeShaun Foster has looked better running the ball of late, and none of the Giants corners will be able to contain Steve Smith. This could get ugly is the Giants give up an early turnover or two. A lot of Giants fans have been mouthing off saying how they'll kick Seattle's ass in the rematch. Worry about the Panthers first, peoples. Panthers 20, Giants 16.
They signed Roman Pfifer? What, Dick Butkis was unavailable? OK, I like the Giants in this game. Now, I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers, who I like a lot, but the Giants have been literally blowing people up on the line of scrimmage. If there was an MVP award for the second half of the season, Tiki Barber would win it. I have never seen a more dominating second half of a season. With that said, I think the Gints win by a field goal against a very well coached team. Giants 23 Panthers 20
Steelers -3.5 over BENGALS
The Bengals are GETTING points at home in the playoffs?!? That can only mean one thing - Vegas thinks the Steelers are going to SMOKE them. And you know what, I tend to agree. They've gotten hot down the stretch, their defense is playing well, and they want a bit of revenge against the Bengals. The Bengals were confident a few weeks ago, but sort of limped into the playoffs with a couple unimpressive outings. I do like the Bengals offense, but they're still pretty young and inexperienced. And the Bengals defense isn't exactly great. Look for the Bus to carry a few people into the end zone, and for Big Ben to continue to make me regret calling him an over-hyped Trent Dilfer. Steelers 27, Bengals 24.
Oh yeah, I forgot about that Rothelisberger - Dilfer comparison. Whoopsie. I can't believe that the Bengals are going to lose this game, what with the best young quarterback in football. Just a thought: did Boomer Esiason simply forget about Big Ben when he made that analysis? Anyway, I like Pittsburgh a lot but in the end I'm taking the home team and the points: Bengals 24 Steelers 20
Texas Longhorns - National Champions
Hell of a game last night. The Texas Longhorns came from behind late to knock off the USC Trojans in their bid to win their 3rd National Championship in a row. (Well, technically, their second and a half.. Two years ago they split it, something the BCS was supposed to prevent.) Great game. But really, the Trojans should have won the game. Why didn't they? Because Pete Carroll is not a good coach.
Yes, that's right. I said it. He was not a good coach in the NFL. He still is not a good coach in college. He's gotten by on talent, and talent alone for these past 3 years. How often has a USC game been so close that a coaching decision decided the game? How about never. Until last night.
USC had the ball up by 5 with less than 3 minutes left, and the ball near mid-field. Texas has all 3 timeouts, but it is first down. Run for 3 yards on first down. 2nd and 7. The next call is a little play action screen, except the pressure on Leinart is a bit much, and he throws it short, clanging to the ground, stopping the clock, and saving Texas a timeout. Mistake number 1. Now 3rd and 7, they run the ball again, this time for 5 yards. Timeout Texas, they have 2 remaining. 2:13 left in the game. (And let me remind you there's no two minute warning in college.) 4th and 2. Punt, right? Yes, Vince Young has been virtually unstoppable the whole game, but even they punt it through the end zone, that gives him an additional 30 yards he has to cover. But no, Carroll decides to go for it. Mistake number 2. And this wasn't a short 2 yards either, it was a long 2. Handoff to LenDale White, the whole Texas team saw it coming, and he's stuffed. Clock stops, and Texas takes over at mid-field with 2:09 left in the game.
Now, Vince Young has killed your defense all game (he finished with exactly 200 yards rushing and 267 yards passing). He's running ridiculous plays at this point, including QB draws from the shotgun into a blitz, and he's getting through for yardage on just about every play. He's doing a Michael Vick impersonation, but like 10 times better than the real thing. And what is one strategy for stopping Vick that works pretty effectively? Take your best linebacker, and have him play "spy" on the QB. He doesn't blitz and get lost in the offensive line. He doesn't bite on that running back out of the backfield acting like he's going to catch a screen in the flat. Just frickin SPY on Young. Shadow him on the other side of the line. If he runs, you don't even have to make the tackle, just slow him down enough to get help. I thought of this somewhere around the 3rd quarter, wondering why neither Keith Jackson or Dan Fouts even mention this. I'm baffled that Pete Carroll and his staff don't even seem to consider this tactic. Mistake number 3.
So, la la la, look at me, I'm Vince Young and nobody is assigned to me, I do my thing, and march down the frickin field to score the go ahead touchdown, a scramble into the end zone on 4th and 5 from the 10 when all his receivers are covered. Not a single USC defender came close to him as he casually strolled into the end zone. Texas now leads by 1 with 19 seconds left. As they celebrate a bit on the sideline, my immediate thought is "go for 2." There's not a lot of time left, but getting 2 puts them up by 3, just in case USC somehow gets close enough for a field goal attempt. So after some brief discussion they line up for 2. Which somehow, some way, seems to have confused USC. Who take their 3rd and final timeout. Before a two point conversion. With the clock stopped, and remaining stopped until the kickoff. Mistake number 4. Young does the same frickin play he's done a dozen times this game, and runs the QB draw in for the conversion. Texas up by 3.
Now I'm thinking, "Hey, USC can do this. They have the offense to get within field goal range. We could see overtime! That would be great! Yes, I want some OT baby! This game deserves some OT!" So Texas is lining up for the kickoff, and USC has Reggie Bush back to return the kick, the man many media people are hyping as the best (or "most exciting") college football player ever. Ever. No way Texas is kicking the ball right to him. I know that. You know that. The announcers know that. Somehow, Pete Carroll does not know that. There's Bush, standing around his own 5, waiting for a long kickoff. And here comes the squib kick. A bulky (and slow) tight end grabs it around the 25 and rumbles for all of 5 yards. Not once does he look back or even consider somehow trying to get the ball to Bush. How about a lateral, folks? It's not that hard to get the ball to your best playmaker on a kickoff. Ugh. Mistake number 5.
Ball on their own 30 with about 12 seconds or so left, no timeouts. But the clock stops when they move the chains for a first down. They need to realistically go about 40 yards or so for a chance at the tying field goal. It doesn't look good. On first down, Leinart drops back, somehow there's a bit of pressure despite Texas only rushing 4 and playing the Ultra Prevent defense. He drops it off to Bush who runs 26 yards to the Texas 43, and gets out of bounds. Now there's like 7 or 8 seconds left. (Somehow, I can't find a game log with the actual timestamp of time remaining.) But it was definitely have enough time for two plays if they're quick. 10-15 yards gives them a shot. So what does Leinart do? Scrambles around looking way downfield. Until he finally throws towards the sidelines as time expires. Over the guy's head, game over.
Hell of a game by Vince Young and Texas. Not so great clutch performance by Leinart and Bush. And definitely not a good coaching job by Carroll. Mark my words, with Bush and Leinart gone next year, USC will not be in a BCS game. The talent won't be there to overcome poor coaching decisions.
One more thing. The comment of the night, from legendary announcer Keith Jackson as they went to a commercial: "This is one doobie." Doobie?! I'm pretty sure Mr. Jackson meant "doozie" like "a doozie of a game." But he said "doobie." Funny stuff.
Yes, that's right. I said it. He was not a good coach in the NFL. He still is not a good coach in college. He's gotten by on talent, and talent alone for these past 3 years. How often has a USC game been so close that a coaching decision decided the game? How about never. Until last night.
USC had the ball up by 5 with less than 3 minutes left, and the ball near mid-field. Texas has all 3 timeouts, but it is first down. Run for 3 yards on first down. 2nd and 7. The next call is a little play action screen, except the pressure on Leinart is a bit much, and he throws it short, clanging to the ground, stopping the clock, and saving Texas a timeout. Mistake number 1. Now 3rd and 7, they run the ball again, this time for 5 yards. Timeout Texas, they have 2 remaining. 2:13 left in the game. (And let me remind you there's no two minute warning in college.) 4th and 2. Punt, right? Yes, Vince Young has been virtually unstoppable the whole game, but even they punt it through the end zone, that gives him an additional 30 yards he has to cover. But no, Carroll decides to go for it. Mistake number 2. And this wasn't a short 2 yards either, it was a long 2. Handoff to LenDale White, the whole Texas team saw it coming, and he's stuffed. Clock stops, and Texas takes over at mid-field with 2:09 left in the game.
Now, Vince Young has killed your defense all game (he finished with exactly 200 yards rushing and 267 yards passing). He's running ridiculous plays at this point, including QB draws from the shotgun into a blitz, and he's getting through for yardage on just about every play. He's doing a Michael Vick impersonation, but like 10 times better than the real thing. And what is one strategy for stopping Vick that works pretty effectively? Take your best linebacker, and have him play "spy" on the QB. He doesn't blitz and get lost in the offensive line. He doesn't bite on that running back out of the backfield acting like he's going to catch a screen in the flat. Just frickin SPY on Young. Shadow him on the other side of the line. If he runs, you don't even have to make the tackle, just slow him down enough to get help. I thought of this somewhere around the 3rd quarter, wondering why neither Keith Jackson or Dan Fouts even mention this. I'm baffled that Pete Carroll and his staff don't even seem to consider this tactic. Mistake number 3.
So, la la la, look at me, I'm Vince Young and nobody is assigned to me, I do my thing, and march down the frickin field to score the go ahead touchdown, a scramble into the end zone on 4th and 5 from the 10 when all his receivers are covered. Not a single USC defender came close to him as he casually strolled into the end zone. Texas now leads by 1 with 19 seconds left. As they celebrate a bit on the sideline, my immediate thought is "go for 2." There's not a lot of time left, but getting 2 puts them up by 3, just in case USC somehow gets close enough for a field goal attempt. So after some brief discussion they line up for 2. Which somehow, some way, seems to have confused USC. Who take their 3rd and final timeout. Before a two point conversion. With the clock stopped, and remaining stopped until the kickoff. Mistake number 4. Young does the same frickin play he's done a dozen times this game, and runs the QB draw in for the conversion. Texas up by 3.
Now I'm thinking, "Hey, USC can do this. They have the offense to get within field goal range. We could see overtime! That would be great! Yes, I want some OT baby! This game deserves some OT!" So Texas is lining up for the kickoff, and USC has Reggie Bush back to return the kick, the man many media people are hyping as the best (or "most exciting") college football player ever. Ever. No way Texas is kicking the ball right to him. I know that. You know that. The announcers know that. Somehow, Pete Carroll does not know that. There's Bush, standing around his own 5, waiting for a long kickoff. And here comes the squib kick. A bulky (and slow) tight end grabs it around the 25 and rumbles for all of 5 yards. Not once does he look back or even consider somehow trying to get the ball to Bush. How about a lateral, folks? It's not that hard to get the ball to your best playmaker on a kickoff. Ugh. Mistake number 5.
Ball on their own 30 with about 12 seconds or so left, no timeouts. But the clock stops when they move the chains for a first down. They need to realistically go about 40 yards or so for a chance at the tying field goal. It doesn't look good. On first down, Leinart drops back, somehow there's a bit of pressure despite Texas only rushing 4 and playing the Ultra Prevent defense. He drops it off to Bush who runs 26 yards to the Texas 43, and gets out of bounds. Now there's like 7 or 8 seconds left. (Somehow, I can't find a game log with the actual timestamp of time remaining.) But it was definitely have enough time for two plays if they're quick. 10-15 yards gives them a shot. So what does Leinart do? Scrambles around looking way downfield. Until he finally throws towards the sidelines as time expires. Over the guy's head, game over.
Hell of a game by Vince Young and Texas. Not so great clutch performance by Leinart and Bush. And definitely not a good coaching job by Carroll. Mark my words, with Bush and Leinart gone next year, USC will not be in a BCS game. The talent won't be there to overcome poor coaching decisions.
One more thing. The comment of the night, from legendary announcer Keith Jackson as they went to a commercial: "This is one doobie." Doobie?! I'm pretty sure Mr. Jackson meant "doozie" like "a doozie of a game." But he said "doobie." Funny stuff.
Wednesday, January 4, 2006
A Look Back at Pre-Season Predictions
Soooo. How'd the "experts" do predicting the division winners and playoff teams? Let's take a look, shall we? (Because I love any opportunity I can get to bash these so-called "experts)... I didn't do so great either, but at least I didn't do anything ridiculous as predict the Lions as NFC North champs. Sheesh.
The nice thing about a blog like this, I can go back and easily find old stuff I wrote... As wrong as I may have been at times...
St. Ides NFC Predictions
NFC West: Seahawks
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
Wild Card Teams: Rams and Packers
So I went 2 for 6. Not great, but wait til you see how the "experts" did. I also correctly predicted that the Cardinals would suck, despite a lot of people picking them as a good sleeper team. I also got Carolina's record exactly right (11-5), as well as Atlanta (8-8), including this dead on comment on the Falcons: "I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it." And yet, somehow, Mr. Vick is going to the Pro Bowl.
St. Ides AFC Predictions:
AFC East: Patriots
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
Wild Card Teams: Chargers and Bills
2 for 6 again, though the Chargers and Chiefs now seem like better picks than the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, or Rams. Ouch. I did have the Steelers and Jaguars just barely missing the playoffs. And maybe I was wrong about Big Ben. We'll see this coming week in Cinci. I didn't get any of the records exactly right in the AFC, oh well. 4 out of 12 overall, or 33% accuracy. Pretty crappy.
So now that I look like I suck, let's take a look at what those who do this for a living said.. Back in the day, I made a blog entry noting all the predictions, just for this purpose.
Here's the not-so-pretty breakdown from the ESPN crew:
NFC East: Eagles 11, Cowboys 1
NFC West: Rams 7, Cardinals 3, Seahawks 2
NFC North: Vikings 12
NFC South: Panthers 8, Falcons 3, Saints(?!?) 1
AFC West: Chargers 5,Chiefs 3, Raiders 3, Broncos 1
AFC East: Patriots 10, Jets 2
AFC North: Ravens 7, Steelers 5
AFC South: Colts 12
Overall ESPN Score: 25/96 (and 22 of those correct picks were the slam dunk Patriots and Colts picks). 26% correct.
SI's Dr. Z (who I loathe)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chiefs
Wild card: Jets and Steelers
Overall Dr. Z Score: 4 out of 12. 33%. Damn, he tied me. Though the combined record of his teams is FAR worse than mine.
SI's Peter King (who I usually hate, because he's so ridiculously biased towards the Giants, oh, and he says some dumb things like how teams should be penalized when the crowd makes too much noise)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Jaguars
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: Bills and Colts
Overall Peter King Score: 4 out of 12 again, though he had the Steelers and Jags as division champs instead of wild card teams. He had the exact same (awful) NFC picks as his friend the Doctor.
3 more SI Guys:
NFC East: Eagles 3
NFC North: Vikings 2, Lions(?!?) 1
NFC South: Panthers 3
NFC West: Rams 1, Seahawks 1, Cardinals 1
Wild card: Falcons 3, Lions 2, Vikings 1
AFC East: Patriots 3
AFC North: Ravens 2, Bengals 1
AFC South: Colts 3
AFC West: Chargers 1, Chiefs 1, Broncos 1
Wild card: Jets 3, Steelers 1, Broncos 1
Overall SI Score: 14/36… 39%, the best yet! Including someone finally picking Seattle to win the division, and someone liking the Broncos. 3 picks for the Lions to make the playoffs though?!?
And, still my favorite NFL writer, TMQ from NFL.com:
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Buccaneers
NFC West: Seahawks
Wild card: Rams and Falcons
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Bengals
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: (Doesn't say, but has Chiefs, Jags, and Steelers all at 10-6, so he got 2 right there!)
Overall TMQ Score: 6.5/12 (I'll give him half a point for not clarifying which two AFC teams were the wild card.) The best by far! Including nailing the NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North with unpopular picks. He remains my favorite writer.
Final Regular Season Predictions Standings:
TMQ: 54%
SI: 39%
St. Ides: 33%
Dr. Z: 33%
Peter King: 33%
ESPN: 26%
As for the playoffs, here's what the experts predicted:
AFC Champion:
Colts - 9 votes
Patriots - 7 votes
Steelers - 1 vote
NFC Champion:
Vikings - 5 votes
Panthers - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Falcons - 3 votes
Rams - 1 vote
Redskins - 1 vote
All the AFC picks alive, but only 5 of the 17 NFC picks have a shot, and all of those as a Wild Card team. Notice nobody picked Seattle as the possible NFC Champ… I know someone who did though.. Me… We'll check out my post-season predictions sometime soon. ;)
The nice thing about a blog like this, I can go back and easily find old stuff I wrote... As wrong as I may have been at times...
St. Ides NFC Predictions
NFC West: Seahawks
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
Wild Card Teams: Rams and Packers
So I went 2 for 6. Not great, but wait til you see how the "experts" did. I also correctly predicted that the Cardinals would suck, despite a lot of people picking them as a good sleeper team. I also got Carolina's record exactly right (11-5), as well as Atlanta (8-8), including this dead on comment on the Falcons: "I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it." And yet, somehow, Mr. Vick is going to the Pro Bowl.
St. Ides AFC Predictions:
AFC East: Patriots
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
Wild Card Teams: Chargers and Bills
2 for 6 again, though the Chargers and Chiefs now seem like better picks than the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, or Rams. Ouch. I did have the Steelers and Jaguars just barely missing the playoffs. And maybe I was wrong about Big Ben. We'll see this coming week in Cinci. I didn't get any of the records exactly right in the AFC, oh well. 4 out of 12 overall, or 33% accuracy. Pretty crappy.
So now that I look like I suck, let's take a look at what those who do this for a living said.. Back in the day, I made a blog entry noting all the predictions, just for this purpose.
Here's the not-so-pretty breakdown from the ESPN crew:
NFC East: Eagles 11, Cowboys 1
NFC West: Rams 7, Cardinals 3, Seahawks 2
NFC North: Vikings 12
NFC South: Panthers 8, Falcons 3, Saints(?!?) 1
AFC West: Chargers 5,Chiefs 3, Raiders 3, Broncos 1
AFC East: Patriots 10, Jets 2
AFC North: Ravens 7, Steelers 5
AFC South: Colts 12
Overall ESPN Score: 25/96 (and 22 of those correct picks were the slam dunk Patriots and Colts picks). 26% correct.
SI's Dr. Z (who I loathe)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chiefs
Wild card: Jets and Steelers
Overall Dr. Z Score: 4 out of 12. 33%. Damn, he tied me. Though the combined record of his teams is FAR worse than mine.
SI's Peter King (who I usually hate, because he's so ridiculously biased towards the Giants, oh, and he says some dumb things like how teams should be penalized when the crowd makes too much noise)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Jaguars
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: Bills and Colts
Overall Peter King Score: 4 out of 12 again, though he had the Steelers and Jags as division champs instead of wild card teams. He had the exact same (awful) NFC picks as his friend the Doctor.
3 more SI Guys:
NFC East: Eagles 3
NFC North: Vikings 2, Lions(?!?) 1
NFC South: Panthers 3
NFC West: Rams 1, Seahawks 1, Cardinals 1
Wild card: Falcons 3, Lions 2, Vikings 1
AFC East: Patriots 3
AFC North: Ravens 2, Bengals 1
AFC South: Colts 3
AFC West: Chargers 1, Chiefs 1, Broncos 1
Wild card: Jets 3, Steelers 1, Broncos 1
Overall SI Score: 14/36… 39%, the best yet! Including someone finally picking Seattle to win the division, and someone liking the Broncos. 3 picks for the Lions to make the playoffs though?!?
And, still my favorite NFL writer, TMQ from NFL.com:
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Buccaneers
NFC West: Seahawks
Wild card: Rams and Falcons
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Bengals
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: (Doesn't say, but has Chiefs, Jags, and Steelers all at 10-6, so he got 2 right there!)
Overall TMQ Score: 6.5/12 (I'll give him half a point for not clarifying which two AFC teams were the wild card.) The best by far! Including nailing the NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North with unpopular picks. He remains my favorite writer.
Final Regular Season Predictions Standings:
TMQ: 54%
SI: 39%
St. Ides: 33%
Dr. Z: 33%
Peter King: 33%
ESPN: 26%
As for the playoffs, here's what the experts predicted:
AFC Champion:
Colts - 9 votes
Patriots - 7 votes
Steelers - 1 vote
NFC Champion:
Vikings - 5 votes
Panthers - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Falcons - 3 votes
Rams - 1 vote
Redskins - 1 vote
All the AFC picks alive, but only 5 of the 17 NFC picks have a shot, and all of those as a Wild Card team. Notice nobody picked Seattle as the possible NFC Champ… I know someone who did though.. Me… We'll check out my post-season predictions sometime soon. ;)
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