Why Seattle SHOULD Win This Weekend

In a few days, the Washington Redskins will take the field against the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC Divisional Playoff game. The winner goes to the NFC Conference Championship game. The loser goes home. Depending what you read, the Seahawks are either one of the top 3 teams in the NFL and going to dominate this game, or they're an overrated team who played a weak schedule and they're ready to be upset by the streaking Redskins. Let's take a look at the facts, shall we?

Exhibit A: Week 4 - Redskins 20, Seahawks 17 (OT)
Week 4 was a long time ago, and this was the last game Seattle lost before losing the meaningless game in Green Bay in Week 17. Yes, that's right. They rolled off 11 wins in a row from Week 5 to Week 16. A few blowouts, a few close games. But all wins.

Looking back in that game, Shaun Alexander was "held" to a mere 98 yards on 20 carries and 1 TD. That's 4.9 yards per carry, folks. There were a few things that stood out in this game. First, the Seattle defense was AWFUL on 3rd down, allowing the Skins to keep the chains moving (and their offense off the field) time after time after time. The Redskins 13 for 18 on 3rd down. 13 for 18. 72% success rate. On the season, the Redskins had 42% success on 3rd down. Hasselbeck went 26/38 for 242 yards and 1 TD (no interceptions). Seattle was 6 for 12 on 3rd down. One of the 3rd down conversions for the Redskins came on a key 3rd and long. Brunell threw the ball down the field for Santana Moss, who had to jump for the ball, as it was a bit high. Right behind him, safety Michael Boulware jumped with Moss, and as the ball entered Moss's grip, Boulware poked his hands through and knocked the ball away. Penalty flag. Pass interference, ball spotted inside the Seattle 20, and a TD mere plays later. Replays clearly showed this was an awful call. Boulware did not touch Moss on the way up, he jumped in sync with him, directly behind him, almost touching him, but not. The call was so bad that Holmgren did get an apology from the league a few days later.

Still, despite the defense's inability to get the Skins off the field on 3rd down and this horrendous call, Seattle had a very good chance to win this game. The Redskins defense did a pretty good job of disrupting the rhythm of the offense most of the game, and this offense is all about getting into its rhythm. But when crunch time arrived, they found the rhythm. Trailing 17-10, Seattle took over on their own 9 yard line with about 8 minutes left in the game. Now it wasn't quite a two minute drill since they had a lot of time to work with, but Hasselbeck took the team down the field, converting several 3rd downs and a key 4th down. With 1:23 remaining in the game, he found Darrell Jackson in the end zone for the tying touchdown.

Washington got the ball back, and decided to try and move it down the field. Despite their success on 3rd down all game, they had still only put 17 points on the board. Brunell looked for Clinton Portis for a little dump pass over the middle, but the throw was a little high and behind him. The ball bounced off of Portis' hands, and into the hands of Seattle CB Kelly Herndon. A couple Alexander runs later, and out comes Josh Brown to kick the winning field goal for Seattle. A 47 yarder… hooking… hooking… hooking.. CLANK… off the left upright. No good.

Overtime. The Redskins won the toss, and converted three 3rd downs to drive within range for the winning field goal. Redskins win, 20-17.

Now, that's not what I would exactly call a convincing win. And the game was in DC. This time the game is in Seattle, where the crowd has been so loud at times this year that they forced 9 false starts against the Giants offensive line.

Exhibit B: The Offense
Here's our top 2 offensive players:
Matt Hasselbeck - Top Rated Passer in the NFC (4th in the NFL)
Shaun Alexander - NFL Leading Rusher, Single-Season Touchdown Record Holder, NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year

And here's some team numbers:
#2 Overall Offense (was #1 most of the season, the meaningless Green Bay game probably prevented the team from finishing #1)
#3 Rushing Offense
#13 Passing Offense (who has to throw when you're ahead in most games?)
#1 Scoring Offense (28.3 points per game. Yes, more than the Colts)
#7 Turnover Ratio (+9.. Including the 2nd lowest number of turnovers, only 17 all season. That's barely one turnover per game)
#5 Sacks Allowed (27 Sacks Allowed in 474 attempts, or 1 sack every 17.5 attempts)
#1 Offensive TDs (29 rushing, 25 passing, 54 total offensive TDs.. Oh, and for the record, Alexander had more TDs than several entire teams)

Here's my point - the Seattle offense is well-balanced and has many weapons. Both Hasselbeck and Alexander are having the best seasons of their career. Hasselbeck only threw 9 interceptions all year, and only 2 in his last 7 games. (Only Jake Plummer had less among QBs who started the entire season. Jake Plummer?!?!) Brett Favre had 29, more than 3 times as many. (In fairness to Favre and his decimated offense, Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe, and Aaron Brooks had 17 each, the next closest.)

And you may be tired of hearing it, but a big reason why the Seahawks offense is so good this year comes down to one thing : Blocking. Left tackle Walter Jones, left guard Steve Hutchinson, and fullback Mack Strong all made the All Pro team and are starting in the Pro Bowl. The right side of the line is pretty solid too. And even when teams KNOW the run is coming to the left, they can not stop it. You know how in the old Tecmo Bowl Nintendo game, when there were only 4 plays on offense and defense, and if the defense called the identical play as the offense, the offense would get swarmed and instantly stopped for a loss? That's what the defenses are like when Seattle gets the ball at the goal line. They have the play called. They have the formation they want. And they still can't stop the play. Not only do they blow open holes for Alexander to run through (and by TMQ's unofficial count, was untouched by a defending player on 15 of his 28 touchdowns), but they give Hasselbeck plenty of time to throw. Four man rushes rarely gets through to him. Blitzes are usually picked up well. I know it's not exciting, but the offensive line wins or loses games for teams.

Speaking of TMQ, here's what he had to say about his annual Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP, an award he gives out every year:
"The Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP: Walter Jones, Seattle. There's a reason Alexander led the league in rushing, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason Alexander had 15 untouched touchdown runs, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason most of Alexander's record-setting tally of touchdowns occurred when he was running left, and that reason is that the left side of Seattle's line -- Jones at tackle and guard Steve Hutchison -- is fabulous. Repeatedly this season, Jones just leveled the man in front of him, even when the defense expected Alexander to run left: for instance in the Blue Men Group-Eagles game on Monday Night Football. Repeatedly when Alexander broke into the secondary, the very large Jones has hustled to accompany him: Check the tape of Alexander's 52-yard touchdown against Tennessee, Jones made the finishing block 20 yards downfield. And repeatedly, Jones got no help in passing blocking: not needing a back or tight end to help the left tackle freed more targets for the Hawks' passing game. If ever an offensive lineman should have been the NFL MVP, it was this year, and it was Walter Jones."

Now, all that said… sure, a good defense can have a good gameplan and good execution any day of the week and be successful against a good offense. I just don't see it happening with the Redskins, and here's why. Without going into too much depth breaking down the entire Redskins offense, I'll just say that their front four doesn't get a ton of pressure, especially now with their starting tackle out with a fractured arm. They'll need to blitz to get to Hasselbeck, and blitzing too much is not a good idea - as TMQ will tell you, blitzing on defense gets you burnt more times than not. As much press as Alexander has (finally) gotten this season, Seattle uses the pass to set up the run. Quick slants and curls by the WRs, hooks by the TE. High-percentage completion passes. Oh, I almost forgot to mention… Hasselbeck set a record for highest completion percentage in a month for December. Something ridiculous like 73% completions. Anyways, when Seattle gets the ball Saturday, don't be surprised when you see passes on the first 3 or 4 plays. It's all part of their master plan to create some space in the second lair for Alexander to carve up. And you know what - it works.

Exhibit C: The Defense
Wow, this is getting long. I'll try and keep this section short.. This is NOT the same defense we've had the past few years. Rookie middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu was 2nd in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting and was named defensive second captain (whatever that means) for the playoffs. Tackles Marcus Tubbs, Chuck Darby, and Rocky Bernard have been excellent against both the pass and run while working a rotation to stay fresh. Seattle's defense quietly led the entire league with 50 sacks, spreading it out so that no single player had double digits. The only 100 yard rusher they allowed all season long was Tiki Barber, and Tiki needed OT to get over the century mark. (Yes, that includes Clinton Portis, who rushed for 90 yards on 25 attempts in Week 4, a 3.6 average. The Seattle defense was 5th in rushing yards allowed. 25th in passing yards allowed. But that's a bit deceptive. Teams were often behind early and big against Seattle, so they were throwing a lot, and got a lot of passing yardage late in games during garbage time. Teams threw against them a 4th-most 571 times. That's 35 pass attempts per game. That's a lot.

Anyways, here's the most important stat: 7th in points allowed, allowing only 16.9 points per game. During the latter part of the season, announcers and writers were fond of saying they had a "bend but not break" defense. They'd give up yardage, but once the opposing team got into the red zone, they often clamped down and held them to field goals. Points win games, not yardage.

Let's look at the Redskins offense:
Mark Brunell - a 35 year old quarterback who has been up and down all season and has a brace the size of Texas on his knee. He threw for just 41 yards last week. All game. Carson Palmer was in for 2 snaps before injuring his knee, and threw for more yards than Brunell.
Clinton Portis - his outside speed scares me a little, but our defense has been good against the run all year, and haven't given up big plays. I expect him to get the ball a lot, but can't see him suddenly having a breakout game.
Santana Moss - a scary weapon. But who are the other Redskins WRs? Can't name them? Exactly. No reason not to double team Moss. Moss had 6 catches for 87 yards in Week 4.
Chris Cooley - a tight end/fullback type who has recently become more involved in their passing game. As long as a linebacker keeps an eye on him, he's containable.

Oh, and our top 3 CBs are all healthy together for the first time since like Week 3. Trufant, Dyson, and Herndon aren't Pro Bowl names, but they're solid. After going up the Bucanneers defense last weekend, Redskins fans are trumpeting "Our offense is good! The Seahawks defense is no Tampa Bay defense!" I think people underestimate our defense.

Exhibit D: Home Field Advantage

Anybody remember the Giants game? The crowd was deafening. Eli Manning took two timeouts in the first quarter because he couldn't hear himself think. The Giants offensive line had a whopping 9 false starts against them. That's 45 yards right there (more than Brunell threw for last week). The Seattle fans are starting to believe. They will be louder than ever, and if you don't think they'll be even louder this week… well, they will be.

The Redskins were 4-4 on the road this season. Their wins? At Dallas in Week 2 (where Moss had those two long TD catches late to pull out the miraculous win), at Arizona (an unimpressive 17-13 win), at St. Louis (24-9), and at Philly in Week 17 (against a Philly team with nothing to play for, and I think they even had Koy Detmer in at QB for a bit. The Redskins led only 24-20 until a fumble was returned for a TD with 2:16 left in the game to give them the 31-20 win.) Yes, they pulled off the impressive win in Tampa Bay last weekend. It took two Chris Simms interceptions and another fumble returned for a TD to give them the win though.

And how about that flight? Seattle has been resting up, getting healthy, going home every night, and generally focusing on the task at hand for weeks now. The Redskins have been battling for their playoff lives, getting even more banged up, and traveling from Washington to Tampa back to Washington then to Seattle. Seattle is a pretty long flight from Washington and has a timezone difference that can sometimes cause a little jet lag. Going from East to West is a bit easier than going from West to East (where 1pm EST games start at 10am PST), but it'll still effect the body. Sure, the Redskins are professionals and have done it before, right? Well, maybe. Their only game in the Pacific Time Zone was at Arizona. So they're not exactly used to it.

Anyways, that's my case. Is it convincing enough to think Seattle should win on Saturday? I think so. Am I still nervous? Well, yeah, anything can happen on any day in the NFL. Really, as long as the offense holds onto the ball, I don't see the Redskins outscoring this team. I'll give you my prediction right now anyways: Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.