Divisional Round Picks

We're down to 8 teams left! And after this weekend, it'll be the NFL's Final Four! Can you feel the excitement? Can you?

Well, it's time for our picks! I hope to continue my perfect playoff record, but really I just want Seattle to win its damn game. Just win at least one playoff game, please? Is that too much to ask?

The big topic around the Samichlaus household on Monday was astonishing success Mr. St. Ides had last weekend. I'm not making this up. His 4 - 0 weekend was both a item of pride for our little blog site while stoking enough professional jealousy to get my competitive embers fired up. Realistically though, you must agree you caught a break when Carson Palmer got knocked out of the Cinci - Pittsburgh game on the second play.

Let me also for the record state that St. Ides had these to me on Thursday. For our now apparantly ravaging fans, I apologize for the delay. I also suggest you visit the following web site ASAP: http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/. They were even nice enough to put your name in their URL.

Here's also a quirky thing to note: All 4 of these matchups happened already during the regular season. The results are included in each breakdown. (Notice all the home teams won. And the only game to switch locations is the Skins-Hawks game.)

St. Ides
Last Week: 4-0

Samichlaus
Last Week: 2-2

Redskins +9.5 over SEAHAWKS
Previously met in Week 4 at Washington: Redskins 20-17 (OT)
When this spread opened at 9 points, I was like "Wow, that's a lot of points for a playoff game. It'll settle in around 6 or so by the end of the week." Here we are on Thursday, and it's still 9. I guess enough people think Seattle will crush the Redskins. You can read my entire in-depth longass breakdown of why the Seahawks _should_ win this game in the previous piece. For those of you with shorter attention spans it comes down to 3 things really: 1) The Seattle offense is too good and too balanced to be shut down for an entire game, 2) The Seattle defense is better than most of the numbers show and can most likely keep the average (and beat up) Redskins offense under wraps, and 3) home field advantage. I'm going to take the points, because I can't imagine a blowout. I hope it is, I really hope it's 35-3 at halftime so I can relax a bit, but I get the feeling I'm going to be nervous until the clock has all zeroes on it. Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.

Even the local Redskin biased press is saying the Skins don't have a chance in hell. St. Ides has disected this game as well as anyone could in his previous thesis, err, blog. In fact it was such a well thought out arguement that I've decided to pull the trigger and take the Seahawks. The excruciatingly loud crowd coupled with two and a half weeks of rest will turn the Seahawks into raging Ostriches. On an interesting side note, a local Seattle paper is limiting the use of the word "Redskins" to once per article, the reason being the potential offensive nature of the racially charged moniker. Which made me think: I'll bet somewhere out west, some idiot might read "Seattle is playing Washington" and think "But I thought Seattle was IN Washington!" Seahawks 34 Redskins 17

Patriots +3.5 over BRONCOS
Previously met in Week 6 at Denver: Broncos 28-20
With the injuries to Drew Bress and Carson Palmer, guess who's going to the Pro Bowl… Yes, that's right, the one, the only Jake Plummer. Plummer did have a pretty amazing season, especially considering his lack of interceptions. Generally the knock against Plummer is that he makes bad decisions, allows too many turnovers, and can't win the big game. Well, he's taken care of the first two of those this season. Can he complete the hat trick and knock off the defending champs this weekend? I don't think so. Belichek will have a gameplan to force him into mistakes. And let's face it, he's still Jake Plummer. The Broncos will need to play near perfect ball on both sides to win this, and I don't see it happening. The Patriots are rolling now, and their confidence has got to be high. Plus, doesn't everybody want to see a Colts-Pats AFC Title Game? I know I sure as hell do. Patriots 23, Broncos 20.

When the Patriots played the Broncos in week six I swear that their secondary was running around wearing those "Hello! My name is...." tags. Who were those guys? This week is going to be different. The Patriots sent notice last week, and I know this is cliche, but New England knows how to win playoff football. What makes this game intriguing is Denver's propensity for home victories. Denver expects to win at home, period. In the end though I can not bet against the champs. Fool me once shame on you, fool me eleven times shame on me. This will be a close game but New England wins outright... Patriots 24 Broncos 23

COLTS -9.5 over Steelers
Previously met in Week 12 at Indy: Colts 26-7
Steelers were impressive last week, but it was the Bengals they were up against and Carson Palmer did get knocked out on his second snap. I still think they would have won even it Palmer played the whole game, but that was mostly because the Bengals are a young team with no playoff experience. The Colts have a lot of pressure on them, but I think they have enough talent to get it done and at least get past the Steelers. I mean, how much would it suck if the Patriots did their part to set up the huge AFC Title game, and then the Colts choke and lose? Although Peyton is probably having some flashbacks of playoff choke jobs after watching Eli stink it up last week. The Colts just have too many offensive weapons, and their defense is improved enough this year to not always get into 37-35 shootouts with teams. Colts 27, Steelers 16.

Palmer wouldn't have missed those long passes that Kitna was missing.... OK, I have to let go of the anger. You smoked me fair and square last week. I like the Steelers and the points. They're healthy, can play ball control, and have a good D. The only thing they can't do is win this game. Colts 34 Steelers 28

BEARS -3.5 over Panthers
Previously met in Week 11 in Chicago: Bears 13-3
Tough game to call here. Both defenses are pretty dope. Even the Panthers offense looked pretty good last week running over the Giants. Guess what though, the Bears defense is not the Giants defense. You think Urlacher and friends are going to let the Panthers run for 200+ yards against them in Chicago? I don't think so. I also don't see the Bears letting Steve Smith run wild on them. Who the hell is the Panthers' second WR anyways? Do they even need to worry about covering him? Really, the big thing making me a bit hesitant to pick the Bears is Rex Grossman. Young inexperienced QBs have not faired well so far in the playoffs (see Simms, Eli, Leftwich). In their previous matchup, it was a ridiculous defensive battle, with the only touchdown coming on a 8-yard drive after an interception return. Expect more of the same, with Rex Grossman doing just enough to keep the Bears slightly ahead. Bears 13, Panthers 9.

Cautionary advice: I am a Packers fan, so my vision here might be a bit predjudiced. I'm still not sold on the Bears. And why oh why did Lovie Smith sit Rex Grossman the last game of the season? Did he honestly think Grossman has played too much and needed the rest? Anyway, the Panthers (who I do like) impressed me thoroughly against the Giants. Say what you want about the appropriateness of Tikik Barber's post game comments but they were essentially correct. The Giants were outcoached. John Fox is fast becomming my favorite coach other than the great Mike McCarthy who... God, I can't even type that in a joke.... anyway, I have to go to work so let me curtail this... Panthers 20 Bears 10.