A Look Back at Pre-Season Predictions

Soooo. How'd the "experts" do predicting the division winners and playoff teams? Let's take a look, shall we? (Because I love any opportunity I can get to bash these so-called "experts)... I didn't do so great either, but at least I didn't do anything ridiculous as predict the Lions as NFC North champs. Sheesh.

The nice thing about a blog like this, I can go back and easily find old stuff I wrote... As wrong as I may have been at times...

St. Ides NFC Predictions
NFC West: Seahawks
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
Wild Card Teams: Rams and Packers

So I went 2 for 6. Not great, but wait til you see how the "experts" did. I also correctly predicted that the Cardinals would suck, despite a lot of people picking them as a good sleeper team. I also got Carolina's record exactly right (11-5), as well as Atlanta (8-8), including this dead on comment on the Falcons: "I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it." And yet, somehow, Mr. Vick is going to the Pro Bowl.

St. Ides AFC Predictions:
AFC East: Patriots
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
Wild Card Teams: Chargers and Bills

2 for 6 again, though the Chargers and Chiefs now seem like better picks than the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, or Rams. Ouch. I did have the Steelers and Jaguars just barely missing the playoffs. And maybe I was wrong about Big Ben. We'll see this coming week in Cinci. I didn't get any of the records exactly right in the AFC, oh well. 4 out of 12 overall, or 33% accuracy. Pretty crappy.

So now that I look like I suck, let's take a look at what those who do this for a living said.. Back in the day, I made a blog entry noting all the predictions, just for this purpose.

Here's the not-so-pretty breakdown from the ESPN crew:
NFC East: Eagles 11, Cowboys 1
NFC West: Rams 7, Cardinals 3, Seahawks 2
NFC North: Vikings 12
NFC South: Panthers 8, Falcons 3, Saints(?!?) 1

AFC West: Chargers 5,Chiefs 3, Raiders 3, Broncos 1
AFC East: Patriots 10, Jets 2
AFC North: Ravens 7, Steelers 5
AFC South: Colts 12

Overall ESPN Score: 25/96 (and 22 of those correct picks were the slam dunk Patriots and Colts picks). 26% correct.

SI's Dr. Z (who I loathe)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chiefs
Wild card: Jets and Steelers

Overall Dr. Z Score: 4 out of 12. 33%. Damn, he tied me. Though the combined record of his teams is FAR worse than mine.

SI's Peter King (who I usually hate, because he's so ridiculously biased towards the Giants, oh, and he says some dumb things like how teams should be penalized when the crowd makes too much noise)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Jaguars
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: Bills and Colts

Overall Peter King Score: 4 out of 12 again, though he had the Steelers and Jags as division champs instead of wild card teams. He had the exact same (awful) NFC picks as his friend the Doctor.

3 more SI Guys:
NFC East: Eagles 3
NFC North: Vikings 2, Lions(?!?) 1
NFC South: Panthers 3
NFC West: Rams 1, Seahawks 1, Cardinals 1
Wild card: Falcons 3, Lions 2, Vikings 1

AFC East: Patriots 3
AFC North: Ravens 2, Bengals 1
AFC South: Colts 3
AFC West: Chargers 1, Chiefs 1, Broncos 1
Wild card: Jets 3, Steelers 1, Broncos 1

Overall SI Score: 14/36… 39%, the best yet! Including someone finally picking Seattle to win the division, and someone liking the Broncos. 3 picks for the Lions to make the playoffs though?!?

And, still my favorite NFL writer, TMQ from NFL.com:
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Buccaneers
NFC West: Seahawks
Wild card: Rams and Falcons

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Bengals
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: (Doesn't say, but has Chiefs, Jags, and Steelers all at 10-6, so he got 2 right there!)

Overall TMQ Score: 6.5/12 (I'll give him half a point for not clarifying which two AFC teams were the wild card.) The best by far! Including nailing the NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North with unpopular picks. He remains my favorite writer.

Final Regular Season Predictions Standings:
TMQ: 54%
SI: 39%
St. Ides: 33%
Dr. Z: 33%
Peter King: 33%
ESPN: 26%

As for the playoffs, here's what the experts predicted:
AFC Champion:
Colts - 9 votes
Patriots - 7 votes
Steelers - 1 vote

NFC Champion:
Vikings - 5 votes
Panthers - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Falcons - 3 votes
Rams - 1 vote
Redskins - 1 vote

All the AFC picks alive, but only 5 of the 17 NFC picks have a shot, and all of those as a Wild Card team. Notice nobody picked Seattle as the possible NFC Champ… I know someone who did though.. Me… We'll check out my post-season predictions sometime soon. ;)