Week four... and another milestone for #4

Greetings SBS fans! The picks are up and they’re good, with plenty of time to fill your Friday with idle discussion! The I-genius lost a point off his formidable lead while Ol’ Samichlaus started the long road back to respectability. Meanwhile the job search is heating up with some interesting prospects. Don’t be surprised if you see Samichlaus delivering his Christmas cheer around the hallowed halls of Big Blue next week…and I don’t mean the NY Football Giants.

Sorry for the mix-up last week - I figured since you posted the previous week, you were gonna do those too, and then I was in meetings all afternoon so I didn't see the comments waiting for it until too late. Anyways....

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 8-8
St. Ides: 7-9

Overall:
St. Ides: 18-14
Samichlaus: 13-19


Ravens -4.5 over BROWNS

The Browns are actually showing some signs of life... I'm real tempted to take them. They destroyed the Bengals two weeks ago. And almost beat an improving Raiders team on the road last week. (The Raiders used the same last second timeout to cancel a game winning field goal tactic the Broncos used against them last week. ) The Ravens are having some weirdness at QB - they took out McNair for Boller last week when they had a big lead over the Cardinals, but then left Boller in to finish the game when it got very close.... I don't trust the Ravens, but I trust the Browns slightly less. But only slightly. Ravens 23, Browns 16.

I have seen the light (through a beer soaked glass): McNair has lost it, and lost it fast. Kudos to my partner for figuring this out early. However, I’m going to stick with the Ravens one more week. If the Browns win it, they win it close. (Oops... I've changed my prediction to match my analysis. Shows you how much thought I put into this) I’ll go Ravens 27 Browns 17


Raiders +3.5 over DOLPHINS

With condolences to Steve's father-in-law, I think the Dolphins are in for a rough season. Trent Green is not the answer at QB. And now Zach Thomas is concussed. Bad news. And as awful as the Raiders were last year, I really do have a bit of faith in them last year. Take away Art Shell as their coach, and that's worth an additional 3-4 wins alone. If they can almost beat the Broncos in Denver, they can probably stay within 3 in Miami. Dolphins 24, Raiders 23.

The thing that’s baffling me about the Fins is their D. To quote Vince Lombardi, what the hell is going on out there? Same goes for Trent Green. I was thrilled when Miami picked him up, but he’s been less than pedestrian. With that said I’m going to take them one more week. The Raiders are traveling coast to coast and that’s worth a few points. Meanwhile Miami is due to break out of their slump. They’re just more talented than they’re record. Miami 24 Oakland 20


Rams +12.5 over COWBOYS

Yes, the Rams are devastated by injuries. Yes, the Cowboys look like world beaters so far. But let's take a closer look at their 3 wins, shall we? They allowed 35 points to the Giants, who lost their starting RB and QB during the game. They allows 20 points to a Miami team that I just told you Trent Green is not the answer at QB. (When was the last time you heard anybody sound scared of facing Trent Green?) And then they demolished poor little Rex Grossman, possibly the worst starting QB ever for a team that played in the Super Bowl. Now, as long as Marc Bulger's broken ribs allow him to get the ball downfield with some semblance of accuracy, he'll torch those safeties all day long. Of course, nobody is going to stop TO going the other way either.... Rams 37, Cowboys 34.

Boy that Rex is a cute little fella isn’t he? “Poor little Rex Grossman” made me laugh out loud. Right now the Cowboys are a step ahead of the rest of the NFC, and they’re hot. But I like the logic here and 12.5 is a lot of coin for a team not named the Patriots. I’ll take the Rams to cover: Dallas 31 St. Louis 21


VIKINGS +1.5 over Packers

Sorry, but the dream comes crashing down this week. That's just the way this league works. Although Samichlaus has mentioned the Vikings have a crappy D, that's not entirely true. Their run defense is pretty damn good. Their pass defense is pretty damn bad though, and the Packers will have to be one-dimensional again this week. You can't win every week in the NFL with no running game. I predict a low-scoring affair with a bunch of turnovers on both sides, but the Packers giving up the most costly one. Vikings 13, Packers 9.

You’re right about the Vikings D. I underestimated them, and completely forgot just how good they are against the run. The key for Green Bay is to play essentially the same game they played against the Chargers, except to take some more shots down field. In the past, Favre has had trouble in the Metrodome, but very quietly he’s gone 3-1 his last 4 starts there. And here’s an inside scoop: the place will be loaded with Packer fans. Ticket sales in Green Bay are through the roof and I think it’s going to be surreal as Packer fans set out to see Brett Favre become the all time NFL TD passing leader (or interception leader, he needs 2). Last bit of data: Brad Childress is an idiot. I didn’t notice it last year as Childress coached in the shadow of a bigger idiot (Mike Tice) but make no mistake: he’s nuts. I like the Packers in a close game: Packers 17 Vikings 10.


LIONS +2.5 over Bears

It looks like Grossman is going to be benched. And after the Lions got torched by the Eagles last week, it's the perfect game for Griese to step in and put up decent numbers and pull out a key divisional win. Here's the thing though - the Bears defense hasn't been THAT impressive so far and they're really banged up. Two starters gone for the season and two or three more likely to miss this week. And (overrated) safety Adam Archuleta will be playing with a cast on his hand. So yeah, I'm taking Detroit. Lions 20, Bears 17.

That injury report says it all. Griese is a game manager at best, and the Bears aren’t built for Ford Field. The Lions have some offensive firepower, enough to take it to the battered Bears: Lions 27 Bears 13


Texans -2.5 over FALCONS

Nothing complicated here. I'm picking against the Falcons every week until they show me something. Other than their best player self-destructing. (DeAngelo Hall that is, not Michael Vick.) Texans 24, Falcons 10.

Even the heartiest of Tech fans hate DeAngelo Hall. My Hokie fan buddy tells me that back in his Tech days he was known as "MeAngelo" (snicker snicker). OK, I know that’s lame, but these are country folk. Fuck, they still get riled up when their favorite country star goes “GIVE ME A HELL YEAH!!!!”. Whoooo-eee! My fear is the point spread. Why is it so low? This reminds me of the Skins Giants game last week and that didn’t exactly work out as I thought. Oh, and did anyone else notice all of Mike Sherman’s rejects getting it done at running back in Texas? Ahman Green, Samkon Gado, Vonta Leach, I’ll bet Ted Thompson wishes he had at least one of those guys. I’ll take the Texans: Texans 27 Falcons 24

BILLS +3.5 over Jets

So I was wrong about the Mangini jinx last week. I'm gonna stick with it though. If the Jets play the Dolphins like the Titans play the Colts, then the Bills play the Jets like that too. Or something like that. Bills 20, Jets 17.

With Losman rolled up like an adulterous wife by a horny football coach, I don’t see the Bills having any answers on O. In addition, I’m not aware of any historical trend between the Jets and the Bills other than the fact that they’re division rivals. Finally, I like the Mangenius over a Dick Jauron coached team any day. Jets 27 Bills 20


PANTHERS -2.5 over Bucanneers

As much as I've liked the Bucs recently (and maybe secretly hope they turn out to be a good team, which would make Seattle's Week 1 win over them more impressive), I think the Panthers should be able to handle them at home. Although if Delhomme can't go, that means we get to see David Carr at QB.... Panthers 20, Bucs 17

Oooh! Girls go wild! It’s a David Carr sighting! Actually, he did a good job when Delhomme went down, and I don’t think the Cats will lose much. I like the Bucs too, but not on the road against the Panthers. Panthers 24 Bucs 17.


NINERS +2.5 over Seahawks

The Niners swept Seattle last year. Now they arguably have a better defense, and former WR Darrell Jackson looking for a little payback. This game is HUGE for the Seahawks. Maybe too huge. They haven't done well under pressure really lately. Not since the Super Bowl fiasco. Okay, maybe that's a slight exaggeration, but I'm way nervous about this game. And a loss here means they're 0-2 in the division, while San Fran would move to 3-0. Not good. The only thing we got going for us is that Alex Smith has looked horrendous. Of course, if Frank Gore runs for 200+ yards like he did last year, Alex Smith could look like Rex Grossman and the Niners will still win easily. Oh yeah, and the Niners getting points at home in this game scares me too. Niners 26, Seahawks 20.

I like the Niners as well. They’re getting points at home and they’re a hot team. Shaun Alexander is dinged up and the Seahawks are just so dern inconsistent. The difference between playing at home and playing on the road for Seattle is they still drop the passes, but this time they don’t make the big plays. Niners 31 Seattle 17


Broncos +9.5 over COLTS

I'm not very impressed with the Jay Cutler era so far. (Especially since Jevon Walker is one of my top WRs on my fantasy team, and he's done jack so far this year.) But almost 10 points is a lot to give what should be a team that's in the hunt for a playoff spot. Colts 34, Broncos 27.

Walker is dinged up as well if I’m not mistaken, but here’s the truth: He’s not the same guy since Darrent Williams died in his arms after that tragic shooting. I saw Walker in an interview a few months ago and thought “Uh oh. That shit fucked with his head”. I’m going with the Colts. They’re the second best team in the NFL, they’re at home, and the Broncos just aren’t that good. Colts 37 Broncos 20


CHARGERS -11.5 over Chiefs

I think the Chargers are going to stink this year, mostly thanks to Norv Turner. But not quite enough to be close to Herm Edwards and the Chiefs at home. LT is really way overdue for a breakout game this year. Chargers 23, Chiefs 10.

Agreed. Philip Rivers was on fire against Green Bay, and essentially missed one crucial third and three completion that would have sent the Packers home. LT was depressed after the game, and I mean depressed. He was practically in tears. If they lose this week, I’m not sure what the normally mild mannered Californians will do to Norv Turner. Like St. Ides points out, thank God he’s going up against Herm Edwards. Chargers 34 Chiefs 17


CARDINALS +5.5 over Steelers

Everybody is on the Steelers' peepee at 3-0. They've beaten the Browns (before they found their QB savior in Derek Anderson), the Bills (who are horrible), and the Niners (who hopefully are horrible as well). Of course the Cardinals have looked awful so far except for like 2 quarters against the Seahawks. Ugh. Anyways, I don't trust either team at all, so I'll take the home dog. Cardinals 23, Steelers 20.

This is a tough call for me, but I'm going with the Steelers. Big Ben is playing well (something like 6 TD’s and 1 INT) and Willie Parker is running wild. The Cardinals have played well for the Cardinals, but that just means they’re not losing by as much. Steelers by a TD: Steelers 27 Cardinals 20.


GIANTS +2.5 over Eagles

McNabb finds his groove and suddenly everybody loves the Eagles again? Not me. There's a good chance Westbrook will miss this game. But so might Plaxico for the Giants. Again, this game is too tight to call, so I'll take the home team and the points. There's a lot of games like that this week. 9 out of 14 to be exact. Think about how crazy that is for a second - only 5 home teams are favored this week. That's insane. Welcome to parity. Giants 20, Eagles 17.

Mooch had a great stat about parity. He said that half of all games in the NFL are decided by a last minute scoring drive. I’d like to check the facts, but if it isn’t completely accurate I’ll bet it’s darn close. The Giants put on a show against the Redskins, but nothing like what Philly did to the Cards. I’m going to play the hot hand and go with the Birds over the other “Big Blue”.
Eagles 37 Giants 31


Patriots -7.5 over BENGALS

Another home dog. But I just can't trust that defense. Seattle didn't get much pressure on Carson Palmer last week, and they gave up a boatload of passing yardage. But they avoided the big play, picked off two passes, kept the catches to mostly short stuff underneath (a LOT of stuff underneath), and, most importantly, held them to just two touchdowns. If Seattle's defense can slow down that Bengals offensive juggernaut, so can the Patriots. Patriots 38, Bengals 23.

Yeah, no fucking way I’m picking against New England. If the Eagles are hot, the Pats are off the dial. They’ve been winning by double digits all season and I see no reason for that trend to abate. By the way, last week was their “let down” game and they still won by over 20. Carson Palmer may be the best middle aged QB in the game but this one could get ugly early. Patriots 34 Bengals 17.