We're Baaaaaaaack! Week One Picks!

A new season, a fresh start. Everyone is 0-0, including the two of us. When you last heard from us with picks, it was Week 6 last season, and we were both barely under .500. Let's see how many weeks we make it this season. There's a buzz going around that our readership may grow by 100% (from 2 to 4), but that may just be a rumor at this point.

It’s great to be making picks again! I have to say after last year’s disappointing seasons I wasn’t sure if Ol’ Samichlaus had the spirit to commit to a whole season. But much like Brett Favre it took a little convincing on St. Ides’s part to get me fired up and we’re back. I’m looking forward to another outstanding season of blogging and football pickin’ so without further adieu…

Tennessee at Pittsburgh -5.5
“Then there was the ever present football-player rapist, they were all in love with dying, they were doing it in Texas”. Or Pittsburgh. Or a hotel suite in Vegas. I like the Steelers in this game by a TD at least. Tennessee will play them tough but there’s no way the defending champs lose at home. Taking the Steelers and the points : Pittsburgh 27 Tennessee 20

Titans +5.5 over STEELERS
Wait, was that a Butthole Surfers lyrics quote? And here I thought your musical tastes were limited to BDF and the Eagles... Speaking of rumors, have you heard this one about Big Ben being sued by a woman claiming sexual assault? Supposedly she's a whack job, so he'll probably not have any true charges filed against him. Too bad. Yes, I still hate the Steelers. Yes, I still think Ben Roethlisberger is overrated. More importantly, I think their running game is going to struggle this year and they've slowly but surely lost some key offensive linemen. I'm still convinced the Steelers are somehow connected to the Illuminati and Dan Rooney managed to rig those last two Super Bowl wins... Karma has to boomerang back around at some point, doesn't it? Titans 23, Steelers 16.

Kansas City at Baltimore -12.5
Yoiks and away. Kansas City is finally rid of St. Ides’s target du jour Herm Edwards, but he’s been replaced by former Cardinals Offensive Coordinator (and ex Jets assistant) Todd Haley. Haley successfully employed the “Get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and get the hell out of his way” offense last year but I suspect that KC might have issues running the scheme. Still, 12.5 is a lot of points, but if the Ravens can stop Larry Johnson the Chiefs will have no answer. Ravens 31 Chiefs 10

RAVENS -12.5 over Chiefs
You are correct, I'm going to miss Herm "We Play To Win The Game" Edwards. Hopefully that means we'll see him on more of those Coors Light commercials. Man, there's some big spreads this first week. And they seem to be based more on last year's performances than this year's expectations. I mean, think about it this way - the vast majority of gamblers probably aren't watching every pre-season game, keeping up with the latest training camp news for each team, and analyzing the new members of each team. They're making their judgments based on last season. (More on this later.) That said, the Chiefs should be almost as bad as last year. Ravens 20, Chiefs 6.

NY Jets at Houston -4.5
Rookie QB Mark “Dirty” Sanchez gets his first look at a real NFL defense… wait, they’re playing Houston? Hold that thought. Matt Schaub says he’s ready to go despite an ankle sprain and he should have fun against the Jets. I like the Texans to win: Texans 24 Jets 17

TEXANS -4.5 over Jets
The Jets gave up a bunch to land Mark Sanchez, their supposed QB savior. Sanchez came out of college early. And if you look deeper at "why" it becomes pretty clear. This was a VERY week QB draft. If he had been in the 2010 draft, he'd likely be the 4th or 5th QB taken, maybe even slip to the 3rd round. Does that mean he's going to suck? Not necessarily. But the Jets didn't exactly give him great weapons to throw to. Jerricho Cotchery and... Who? Chansi Stuckey? David Clowney? Ouch. Meanwhile, if Matt Schaub can stay healthy in Houston (that's a big "if"), he has awesome weapons in Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton. And their defense ain't half bad either. Some are picking the Texans to win the AFC South. I won't go that far, but I think they beat Dirty Sanchez starting his first NFL game as a rookie on the road. Texans 24, Jets 17. (Editor's note: Yes, St. Ides and Samichlaus both made the lame "Dirty Sanchez" joke independently. This is what it comes to when Jeff Garcia is not on an NFL roster.)

Dallas at Tampa Bay +5.5
Can Dallas win their first game on the road at Tampa? I don’t know what to make of these teams this year. Tampa’s new head coach Raheem Morris is a good defensive coordinator, but is unproven as a head coach. Dallas head coach Wade Phillips is a moron. But Dallas has a good QB who is no longer dating that Daisy Duke chick. I like Dallas to win, but I’m going to take the home dog: Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 24.

BUCCANEERS +5.5 over Cowboys
The Bucs are pretty much a mess and officially in "rebuild" mode. But I think the Cowboys are going to be a complete train wreck all season long, even with T.O and Pacman shipped out. Tony Romo is a highly overrated QB who hasn't won jack shit. And supposedly after he dumped Jessica Simpson, she went to a witch and had a curse put on him. And she proceeded to pick up a slightly lesser known QB as her next boyfriend - practice squad fodder Colt Brennan. Anyways, I'll take the points at home. Cowboys 23, Bucs 20.

Philadelphia at Carolina +1.5
This time I’m going against the home dog. Philadelphia has armed themselves with a dog killer this season, so I’m liking them in this game. Philly looked good with McNabb under center, and Carolina is a team that I always think is going to play well and I’m always wrong. Philly wins and covers: Eagles 30 Panthers 27

PANTHERS +1.5 over Eagles
Oh man, it didn't take long for the dog killer jokes to come out, but that was nicely done. Kind of a strange spread here. I'm not sure what Jake Delhomme has left in the tank, but their Carolina run game and defense should be solid. And Steve Smith is still Steve Smith. The Eagles have had an interesting offseason, especially with the whole Michael Vick soap opera. But their hopes basically still come down to Donovan McNabb and Micheal Westbrook - two guys who aren't getting any younger and haven't exactly stayed healthy lately. I'll stick with the Cats. Panthers 27, Eagles 22.

Detroit at New Orleans -13.5
Only two TDs? What am I missing here? Drew Brees is the best QB in the NFC. The Saints are going to have a field day against a team that can’t run, can’t pass and can’t play defense. Two TD’s and a field goal separate these teams and that’s after New Orleans brings in the scrubs at the end of the third Quarter. New Orleans 27 Detroit 10.

Lions +13.5 over SAINTS
Okay, this is where I was going to address the whole "based on last year" thing again. The Lions did shake up things quite a bit on both sides of the ball - #1 pick Matt Stafford will start at QB, Calvin Johnson has another year of experience under his belt (and no Roy Williams opposite him), they picked up former Seahawk Julian Peterson and former Steeler (and Wolverine.. for those playing at home, my hatred for the Steelers overrides my love for Michigan, so I don't like him) Larry Foote. The Saints offense should be just as explosive as last year. Sadly, their defense will likely be just as porous. Lions stay within 2 TDs with a garbage time score. Saints 30, Lions 17.

Minnesota at Cleveland +4.5
Cleveland sucks. And now with the Mangenius at the helm they’re going to suck even more. If Minnesota is smart they’ll hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and get out of his way. Favre has not yet developed a chemistry with his receivers so I don’t expect him to light it up. Yet. I’ll take Minnesota and the points Vikings 30 Cleveland 20

BROWNS +4.5 over Vikings
The Brett Favre era in Minnesota begins! Mangini has pretty much looked like a complete fool in his short time as a head coach in both New York and Cleveland. Even as of right now, on Wednesday night, he's not declared a starting QB for Sunday, claiming it'll make it harder for the Vikes to plan for if they have to prepare for both possible QBs. Right. Like Brady Quinn and Dereck Anderson are striking fear into their hearts. (The word on the street is that Quinn will start by the way.) The common thinking is that a legit passing game with Favre will open up even more space for consensus pre-season MVP pick Adrian Peterson. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few picks by Favre and Brady Quinn finding Braylon Edwards deep once or twice to keep this close. Vikings 27, Browns 24.

Miami at Atlanta -4.5
I really like Miami this year. They were a surprise last year, and I just think they’re going to get better. Atlanta is a good team as well. Can we expect a sophomore slump for Matt Ryan? Me thinks that some things are unavoidable, like death and republican opposition. I’m going out on a limb and taking Miami for a early season Samichlaus shocker: Miami 17 Atlanta 13

FALCONS -4.5 over Dolphins
Michael Turner and Matt Ryan had awesome years last year. Can they repeat? Throw Tony Gonzalez out there with them, and I say, sure, why not? Meanwhile, I think Chad Pennington may fall back down a bit to reality. I think the Dolphins 11-6 record last year was a bit of a fluke. (Slight tangent: Matt Ryan's nickname from his college days is "Matty Ice" and I suspect that's less because he has "icewater in his veins" and more a play on the cheapass college brew "Natty Ice" (also known as Natural Light Ice, which went for about $12 a case back in my day). I bet 95% of football fans don't realize that. So you're quite welcome for the enlightenment.) Falcons 27, Dolphins 13.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis -7.5
The Dungyless Colts. What to make of it? Even if the new coach sucks, it will take a while for some of the old coaching to wear off. Case in point: the Ray Rhodes Packers were 4-0 in preseason and won their first 3 games before collapsing and finishing 8-8. I like Indy with ease. Colts 30 Jaguars 20

Jaguars +7.5 over COLTS
A lot of people think the Colts will suffer a pretty big dropoff this year, with almost complete turnover on the coaching staff, the loss of Marvin Harrison, and some other key departures. Peyton Manning is starting to get a bit up there in years, and may start taking a bit more of a beating behind a somewhat suspect offensive line. I don't trust the Jags either, especially David Garrard. But I'll take the points, as the Jags usually play their divisional rivals pretty close. Colts 27, Jags 26.

Denver at Cincinnati -4.5
Did anyone else watch “Hard Knocks” this season? The Bengals suck. Suck didly suck suck suck. Of course Denver sucks too. Denver doesn’t have a quarterback, do they? Kyle Freakin Orton. And as for Brandon Marshall, whose self serving attitude makes Chad Ochocinco look like a model citizen, all I can say is thank God you are not on my team. Jesus. I’m going to pick the damn Bengals. Crap. Bengals 23 Broncos 17

BENGALS -4.5 over Broncos
I don't have HBO, but I read that Hard Knocks was pretty entertaining,especially Tank Johnson. Okay, let me say this early and often. I'm going to be rooting hard against the Broncos this year, the hardest since they were AFC West rivals with the Seahawks and I wanted to knock that horse-faced smile off John Elway's face every time I saw him. Why? Simple. The Broncos traded their 2010 1st round pick to Seattle for Seattle's 2009 2nd round pick. With Cutler out of town, them not really doing much to improve their offense, and the mess with Brandon Marshall, that pick is looking like a potential top 10 right about now. I like it. Now, that aside, if Carson Palmer can stay healthy (again, a big "if"), they should be able to move the ball. They lost T.J Whosyourmomma to Seattle, but replaced him with Laverneus "Nobody Can Ever Fucking Spell My First Name Right" Coles, who will be a suitable replacement. Bengals 29, Broncos 20.

St. Louis at Seattle -8.5
Has the MASH unit left Seattle yet? If the Seahawks can stay healthy there is no reason why they can’t win their division. But staying healthy is a big if. I like Seattle in this Game. It’s been a long time since the Rams have fielded a competitive team, particularly on the road. Seattle cruises: Seahawks 27 Rams 13

SEAHAWKS -8.5 over Rams
Hasselbeck has looked awesome (and healthy) this pre-season. He's developed a nice chemistry with T.J. Houshmanzadeh pretty quickly. (Reports say better than he's had with Deion Branch, even though Branch has now been there like 3+ years.) They made four pretty big (and overlooked) moves on defense - signed former Packer big body Colin Cole to clog the running lanes, traded Julian Peterson for Corey Redding (who's underachieved his whole career, but who hasn't in Detroit?), drafted top defensive prospect Aaron Curry with the #4 pick, and re-signed former CB Ken Lucas (who's taller than any CB they have which is nice against the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Anyways, their big question mark will be their offensive line and running game. Walter Jones is hurt, and he's not getting any younger. Julius Jones is their starter, but they signed Edge James just 3 weeks ago as insurace. The Rams will likely be one of the worst teams in the league. Marc Bulger may miss this game with a broken pinkie, which leaves the offense in the hands of Kyle Boller. Which means they should be able to focus on Steven Jackson, who Seattle has done a surprisingly good job containing the past two seasons. The crowd is going to be rocking and the team will be looking to prove last season was an injury-riddled blip on the radar. Seahawks 27, Rams 10.

Washington at NY Giants -6.5
Washington is the local team here in Virginia so there’s a lot of Redskins hype on the radio. I’m saying that as a warning: my logic here is being influenced by the media. Now with that caveat emptor, the Skins and Giants always play close games, right? And 6.5 may seem like the right spread, but I think the Skins keep it close enough to lose in the last seconds. Skins and the points. Giants 20 Redskins 17.

Redskins +6.5 over GIANTS
When the Skins started hot last season, everyone was praising Jim Zorn. I was happy the former Seattle QB and coach was having success - and a little bit sad we had let him escape to Washington by handing over the future reins to the team to Jim Mora. Then the team started to crumble and missed the playoffs. Now, with names like Holmgren, Cowher, Gruden, and Dungy out there as potential coaches next season, Zorn is on the hot seat. They also spent a lot of their offseason pursuing a new starting QB - there were rumors about Cutler, Favre, Sanchez, and even Vick. Which has to be a shot to the ego of Jason Campbell. How does he respond? Some players thrive on that sort of challenge, and some wilt. I'm going to say Campbell is somewhere in the middle. As for the Giants, I'm not real high on them. They'll miss Plaxico. I still don't think Eli has become a top 5 QB in the league... Maybe barely top 10. It'll be close. Giants 20, Skins 17.

San Francisco at Arizona -6.5
Arizona went to the Super Bowl last year, and I still find that hard to believe. But last year I picked against the Cards several time, and I usually lost. San Francisco is still without their first round pick Michael Crabtree who is holding out for more money than he deserves. That pretty much means last year’s Niners team is going to take the field. Let’s go with the Cards and the points: Arizona 24 San Francisco 17

Niners +6.5 over CARDINALS
You know, the Cardinals are one hit away from Matt Leinart being their starting QB. Does Warner really have one more amazing season left in him? Really? Because that's what they'll need to win the NFC West again. Yes, the Niners suck, but I just think the Cardinals are in for a hugely disappointing season with the "Defending NFC Champs" target on their back. Niners 29, Cards 27.

Chicago at Green Bay -3.5
What a way to start the season: a crushing victory over the Bears. Sure, SI and Fox picked the Bears to go to the Super Bowl, but what do they know? The Packers are a much improved team. They’ve purged the defensive coaching staff and have brought in Dom Capers and his aggressive zone blitzing 3-4. Aaron Rodgers has been lights out in preseason, and RB Ryan Grant is healthy and running downhill again. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are back and here’s the inside scoop: Packers TE Jermichael Finley and Donald Lee are going to be huge. Watch this Finley kid: he stretches the field like Tony Gonzalez. The D has looked fantastic, albeit preseason fantastic. I can’t wait to see them in action against Jay Cutler, who by the way has looked terrific. Packers and the points: Green Bay 30 Chicago 21

PACKERS -3.5 over Bears
As an impartial observer, I agree with Steve here. I think the Packers are going to be one of the best teams in the NFC. Their defense should be pretty damn good, and Rodgers has looked good and has nice weapons around him. I'm not sold on Cutler, especially without all that much to throw to. And the Bears D has to be getting a bit up there in age, no? Packers 26, Bears 19.

Buffalo at New England -10.5
The line must have dropped here. This one is a no brainer: New England at home, with their star QB back under the helm, going up against a Dick Jauron coached team. It’s going to be an interesting season for New England: can they make it back to the upper echelon of the NFL? You bet they can, and they send a huge message for week 1: New England 37 Buffalo 13

PATRIOTS -10.5 over Bills
As long as the offensive line can keep Brady's jersey clean (and knees intact), they should be good. Word is the Bills plan on blitzing the poop out of him. With Brady missing all of last year, nobody has really been able to try out the "pressure the hell out of Brady" winning formula the Giants used to win the Super Bowl. Although with the losses of Vrabel, Brusci, and Seymour, who the hell is playing D for the Pats? Ty Law? Randall Gay? As for the Bills.. The over/under on T.O. being seen blowing up on the sidelines is 2.5 quarters. Pats 30, Bills 13.

San Diego at Oakland +9.5
How fucked up is Oakland? They send their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots (!) for a guy who won’t show up. Time will tell if he makes it there by Sunday but this team is cursed. Look for the Pats to have the #1 or #2 in that draft, and look for Richard Seymour to be a marginal help for the hapless Raider run defense. San Diego should have no problem whippin’ the home dog. Bolts 35 Raiders 20

Chargers -9.5 over RAIDERS
Yeah, the Raiders are pretty fucked up. Their first round pick, that Bey-Heyward guy, is fast as hell but apparently can't catch a cold. And they cut Jeff Garcia last week. That right there will doom them to a hard season of criticsm here on SBS for taking away some of our best joke material. The Merriman situation with choking that chick is interesting. Roid rage anyone? Still, Phil Rivers looks decent and LDT has something left to prove. Chargers 28, Raiders 10.