Week 8 Picks, All of it!

Zomg, Happy Halloween! I can't wait to see the crazy costumes all those wacky fans come up with this weekend.

Hey kids, Samichlaus here! Happy Sunday to our readers, and yes, Ol Samichlaus had a heck of a week. In my other secret identity as a computer geek, a great project shut its doors and I've been celebrating with my co-workers. Oh, and working my buns off as well. What ever alone time I had was spent prepping for band practice, which is a story for another day on another blog. Let's just say for now that I can still rock the house.

Denver (6-0) at Baltimore (3-3) -3.5
I keep doubting Denver, and they keep proving me wrong. And I keep having faith in the Ravens, and they keep proving me wrong too. Well, not this time! Somehow the Denver defense has been excellent, and Kyle Orton has resembled an NFL QB. Shocking, I know. The Ravens defense is finally starting to show some signs of age. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are no spring chickens any more. I'll say the Ravens win on a late field goal, but don't cover. Ravens 24, Broncos 23.

This is going to be Denver's toughest test yet: and I like the Ravens to win. I like them for two reasons: first, they have been decidedly mediocre this year. They can't seem to get to the next level as they beat up on the lesser teams but fail to rise to the occasion against the good teams. Second, I always like them at home. The do play well in front of their fellow, uhh, Baltimorons? Whatever... I think this is make or break for the Ravens so the rule of the more desperate team applies: Balitmore 27 Denver 20

Seattle (2-4) at Dallas (4-2) -9.5
Walter Jones - Done for the season. Lofa Tatupu - Done for the season. Seahawks - Done for the season. Well, maybe I'm jumping the gun slightly, but after they lose this week, 2-5 will be hard to recover from. The Cowboys showed me something against the Falcons last week. But not a whole lot. The key here will be Demarcus Ware will be going up against the 5th starting LT Seattle has started this season, a dude they just signed off the scrap heap after he was cut by the Chiefs. So yeah, Hasselbeck will probably be running for his life all game. The only positives I can see is that maybe Julius Jones plays inspired against his old team, and Seattle is getting back Marcus Trufant and Leroy Hill on defense. I'm tempted to take the points, because my heart says, "Seattle is still a decent team," but my head says, "Wow, they suck." Cowboys 27, Seahawks 17.

I hate to agree with you on this one, but I see it the same way. This is two seasons in a row now where the injury bug has taken its toll on Seattle. The Cowboys got a big win last week and I think that bolsters them at home. Seattle will hang for a while but ultimately the Cowboys will out them away with relative ease. Here's to the double reverse jinx:  Cowboys 34  Seahawks 23


Cleveland (1-6) at Chicago (3-3) -13.5
That's a lot of points. Remember what I wrote recently about "so much for parity" in the NFL? Well, I saw at least 3 articles this week by "professional" writers along the same lines. Can I sue for plagiarism? One of them was paritcularly interesting. Last week had the biggest average margin of victory in the NFL since 1970. Even with these huge spreads, teams are covering. There were SIX games last week that were decided by 28 points or more. Six of the thirteen games on the schedule were won by 4 TDs or more. That's really pretty insane. So people laying all these points are still winning their bets. Vegas needs to start bumping these spreads up to the 20-24 point range or they're going to get killed before the season ends. Anyways, back to this particular game... Browns suck. I'm laying the huge points hoping the blowout trend continues. Bears 27, Browns 10.

Who's the QB for Cleveland this week?  Not that it matters. On the road against a darn good Bears team and this one is a no brainer. The only way this game is decided by less than 2 TDs is if the Bears don't take it seriously, and I don't think that Lovie Smith will let that happen. As a Packers fan I hate to admit this but Lovie Smith can flat out coach. BTW, did you know that Lovie was named after his great aunt Lovana? Thank goodness my family didn't hold that tradition, lest Ol' Samichlaus might have been known as "Viola" or "Jessupina". Yikes.  Bears 34  Browns 10

St. Louis (0-7) at Detroit (1-5) -4.5
This is probably the Rams best chance this season to get a win. Well, it is on the road, so maybe not. Okay, I won't be lazy, let me go check the schedule, one moment please. They've got Seattle and San Fran at home, and at Tennessee as the only possibly winnable games. So yeah, this is probably their best bet. And it looks like Stafford is still out. So yeah, why not, let's say the Rams are going to win their first of the year. Rams 24, Lions 23.

I'm going the other way. Not sure why, especially if Stafford is out, but I have a feeling about Detroit. They usually keep it close, and have tasted victory once before. Plus they're at home, though I know we're going dome against dome here. St. Louis on the other hand has been consistantly awful. Maybe they pull it out? I don't know... stop making be think about this game any longer.   Detroit 20   St. Louis 10

San Francisco (3-3) at Indianapolis (6-0) -12.5
I bet against the Niners last week versus Houston, and I looked like a genius as the Texans roared out to a big lead by halftime. Then something odd happened. The Niners brought former #1 overall pick Alex Smith off the bench and he almost led them to a comeback. This week he gets the start in Indy. And I predict he shows us why he was benched in the first place. Alex Smith, meet Dwight Freeney. As usual, Manning lights things up. Colts 34, Niners 17.

That so funny! I swear I'm not making this up: when the Texans were up 24 - 0 I was sitting on my couch going "Jeez, St. Ides looks like a friggin' genius on this one". The Colts have been absolutely sick this year. They're beating teams by two TDs every week.  I'm going to be a contrarian here: I'm going to take the points. At some point this trend has to change: thats what my Heuristically Programmed Algoritmic Computer, series 9000 computer tells me, and as we know the HAL 9000 has never made a mistake. Colts 37  Niners 27

Houston (4-3) at Buffalo (3-4) +3.5
I like the Texans. I especially like them because I have Matt Schaub on my fantasy team and he's been awesome. The Bills have shown some life lately.. I'm shocked to see they're actually 3-4.. I should check the weather in Buffalo, but I've used up my research time checking the Rams schedule. Assuming it's not a blizzard, I like Houston's offense to continue to roll.. PS - Has anyone seen TO lately? Texans 27, Bills 20.

Matt Schabb once again proves that the superior institution of higher learning here in the Old Dominion is the University of Virginia. Sure, the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Athletic Penetentary might be nationally ranked, but when was the last time you heard of a UVA student athlete getting involved in a felony? Anyway, back to football: I like the Texans too. The Bills can be tough at home, but to take my partners analysis one step further, today is going to be sunny and 45 at kickoff. In other words ain't nothing going to stop the Texans.   Houston 30   Buffalo 17

Miami (2-4) at NY Jets (4-3) -3.5
I can't figure out either of these teams. The Dolphins came incredibly close to beating the Colts on MNF early in the season, and had a big lead against the Saints last week before letting it slip away. Dirty Sanchez went from the next Joe Namath to just another rookie QB making mistakes and throwing a bunch of picks. And now Jets linebacker Bartt Scott has said he wants to go out there and hurt Chad Henne. Hey, don't mess with the Wolverines! (Speaking of which, did you know they're remaking the movie Red Dawn? I know Samichlaus knew, since he sent me the link, but I'm talking to our readers... Hello out there?) Anyways, I'm taking the fish. Dolphins 26, Jets 20.

Red Dawn! That great paragon of second amendment rights! Here's a little advice for St. Ides: go rent "Wolverine: X Men Origins". It will make you an Ohio State fan. I like the Jets in this game, and pretty much for the same reasons I liked them last time. Of course I was wrong last time, but this week Rex Ryan has an answer for the Wildcat. The Jets at home will stop Miami and win by 10.  Jets 27  Finned Marine Mammals 17


NY Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-2) -3.5
Oh how the Giants disappointed me last week by not crushing the Cardinals. They've now given up 72 points in their last 2 games. Not exactly the dominant defense people associate them with. The Eagles took care of business against the Skins last week and can actually pull into 1st place in the NFC East with a win. I still don't trust McNabb a whole lot, and it looks like Westbrook is out, so let's say the Giants bounce back and hold onto first place. Oh, and this New York at Philly game will be followed by another New York at Philly game just a few hours later. (The World Series.. you might have heard of it?) Giants 24, Eagles 17.

Now now, you know Samichlaus is a Mets fan. Why oh why did you have to bring up that baseball game. This is the first World Series I can remember where every morining I look at the headlines and say either "Damn, the Phillies won" or "Damn, the Yankees won".  Meanwhile, I'm going to go Eagles this week. The Giants D has been less than pedestrian lately and Philadelphia is a tough team. Speaking of "has any one heard from...", what's become of Michael Vick? He lost more than a step...  Eagles 30  Giants 24


World Series tangent... I was going to make this its own post, but fuck it. I liked the Yankees going in, but
watching Cliff Lee pitch lights out and seeing that Philly lineup close up and personal scares me. That dude Chase Utley has GOT to be juicing, right? He doesn't look that big, yet he's jacking homers like that? Okay, so I lied, I'm going to look up something else this article.. Okay, says here he's 6'1" 192... I guess that's slightly above average for a 2nd baseman. Still, 31 home runs this year? For comparison, his teammate Ryan Howard is 6'4" 255, Mark Texeira is 6'3" 220, and A-Rod is 6'3" 228. Anyways, if the Yankees are going to win, they better win the games Cliff Lee isn't pitching. Because that dude looks unhittable.


One more thing... I'm pretty excited about the NY Rangers this year because they have a legit offensice superstar in Marian Gaborik. I noticed a trend after watching both the Rangers and Yankees lose the other night.. Since the postseason started, when they both play on the same night, they've both done the same thing: All 3 of the Yankee postseason losses have come right after a Ranger loss.


Oct 11
W - Rangers 3, Maple Leafs 0
W - Yankees 4, Twins 1


Oct 17
W - Rangers 4, Maple Leafs 1
W - Yankees 4, Angels 3


Oct 19
L - Sharks 7, Rangers 3
L - Angels 5, Yankees 4


Oct 22
L - Canadiens 5, Rangers 4
L - Angels 7, Yankees 6


Oct 28
L - Islanders 3, Rangers 1
L - Phillies 6, Yankees 1


Nov 1
Yankees @ Phillies - Game 4
Bruins @ Rangers


Nov 5
Phillies @ Yankees - Game 7
Rangers @ Oilers

Great stuff! Where else can you get this kind of analysis? 


Jacksonville (3-3) at Tennessee (0-6) -3.5
Maurice Jones-Drew said this week that he believes the Jaguars are the best team in the league. He may be smoking some crack, but I think they can probably beat the struggling Titans, now being helmed by Vince Young. Jaguars 23, Titans 20.

I'm surprised the spread is only 3.5 here, I like the Jags, who much like the Ravens need a win to push them to the next level. I also like Vince Young, but to rely on him to win his first week as a starter is not realistic. young can bring a new dimension to the Titan's offense, but he's going to need time. The Jags should win and cover, even in the Titan's back yard.   Jacksonville 27  Tennessee 20


Oakland (2-5) at San Diego (3-3) -16.5
You know.. I want to take those points.. I really do... Somehow the Raiders actually have two wins.. This is a divisional rivarly game.. The Chargers have looked underwhelming all season.. I'm trying to talk myself into taking the points. Okay, I'll do it. Chargers 27, Raiders 14.

I was totally suckered by the Raiders against the Jets. I made a fool of myself in the eyes of our loyal readers, and have flogged myself accordingly. This week at San Diego I'm not going to make the same mistake. Sure the Bolts have looked underwhealming, but so did the Jets until they played the Raiders. This week they'll look like world beaters  San Diego 41  Raiders 14

Minnesota (6-1) at Green Bay (4-2) -3.5
Oh boy, here we go. The return of Favre to Green Bay. I'll leave the emotional evaluation to my colleague. I'll just say that I think that the Packers players really want to beat him badly. And I think that despite the "It's just another game" facade that Favre is putting on, he'll be rattled when he gets booed by people who previously worshipped him like a saint. (He is going to get booed, right? Please tell me they'll boo him.) Hopefully the Packers D can contain Peterson, as that's still the key to beating the Vikings. And hopefully this time someone will block Jarred Allen. Holy crap, for the love of God, give the OT some help with this monster! Jeez. Anyways, this should be a pretty good game, and I think the Packers will pull it out. Packers 24, Vikings 20.

There are four schools of thought in booing Favre. According to a poll taken by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel,  about 40% of the fans want to boo the ever living Christ out of him. About 20 % want to cheer him first (out of respect) then boo the ever living Christ out of him, and the remaining 20 % are split between cheer him and give him the silent treatment. I fall into the second catagory of cheer first and boo going forward.  (official aside: I just re-read what I wrote and realized how absurd this is. Have I really spent that much time wondering what the proper reaction to Brett Favre should be?) Now, back to the game. The last time they played the Pack had a smart defensive plan: stop Adrian Peterson. What they couldn't do was stop Brett, and a lot of that had to do with their banged up secondary. Since the secondary was banged up, they couldn't blitz, so Favre had all day to throw. This week the D is healty and playing a lot better than they were on October 5th. That said, no matter how well the D is playing you can't win if you give up 8 sacks. Rookie T.J. Lang gets the start against Jared Allen, and all I can say is may God save his soul. I'm going for the Packers to win and cover, as Favre throws a pick to end a potential game tying drive in the last minute of play:  Green Bay 27 Minnesota 20


Carolina (2-4) at Arizona (4-2) -9.5
The Panthers are brutal. People keep waiting for Jake Delhomme to be benched, but they really have no better option. Their current backup QBs are better suited to this new UFL league. I wish the Cardinals would lose a few gimmes so Seattle still hung around in the divisional race, but I don't see it happening against Carolina. Cardinals 31, Panthers 20.

Usually I save these sort of comments for my beautful wife, but for what it's worth... I was wrong. The Cards showed me something agains the Giants and Kurt Warner has been lights out. St. Ides is dead on about Jake Delhomme, and that's sad: Delhomme is a shadow of the mediocre QB he always was, and the Cats have no better alternative.  Take the Cards and the points.  Cardinals 34  Panthers 20

Atlanta (4-2) at New Orleans (6-0) -9.5
I almost regretted it last week as the Dolphins jumped out to a big lead early, but then Drew Brees and co came roaring back. I'm sticking with it. Take the Saints til they lose. Saints 38, Falcons 27.

Agreed. I'm riding the Saints until someone, anyone can show me that they can cover against them. I like Atlanta, but they're not in the same class as New Orleans. Right now, with the possible exception of the Colts, no one is. New Orleans 37 Atlanta 24

Week 7..all of it...

A note to our loyal readers (all three or so of you…we chart IP addresses here at the “SBS Data Center and Business Intelligence Compound”). This weekend it is once again safe to turn on your TV’s. The NFL has mercifully scheduled a bye week for the Seattle Seahawks. And not just the really good Seahawks who showed up two weeks ago, but the crappy ones too who mailed one in last week against Arizona. However those of you here in the 804 be forewarned: the Redskins play on Monday Night. We strongly advise switching to TNT or Bravo at 8 PM on Monday where you can probably catch a rerun of one of the “Law & Order” franchises. This has been a PSA from your ol’ pal Samichlaus. Go Packers.

Well, the small glimmer of hope I’m still hanging on to has to do with this bye week and us potentially getting back several injured players. We’ll see though. The offensive line is in complete shambles right now… Also, I'm surprised none of our astute readers noticed that we had two weeks of picks both labeled as "Week 4".. Clearly, there was only week 4. So we apologize for any confusion. (Yes, we sometimes make mistakes.)

San Diego (2-3) at Kansas City (1-5) +4.5
San Diego hasn’t been nearly as good as I thought they would be, and at least for last week, KC wasn’t as bad. Well, anyone can look halfway decent against the Redskins. Despite this recent trend I’m going to stay with my gut and pick the Chargers. I think they’re ready for a win, and KC are patsies enough for the Chargers to have it easy. San Diego 24 Kansas City 17

The Chargers have been pretty horrible. The Chiefs have stuck around against almost every opponent. I’m taking the points in KC. Chargers 27, Chiefs 24.

Minnesota (6-0) at Pittsburgh (4-2) -4.5
Minnesota has gotten lucky twice now. I watched the end of the Ravens game and if it weren’t for their kicker totally sucking, they would have won. The Vikings take it on the road against a Pittsburgh team that’s been putting up around 500 yards a game in offense. Couple that with Ms. Clairol having a game under his belt and Pittsburgh coasts. Steelers 30 Vikings 20

Who the hell is Ms. Clairol? Okay, not many go over my head on this highly intellectual website, but that one got me… I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop against the Vikes, and it hasn’t happened. I hate both these teams. Do I really have to pick one? Ah hah! It's time for the unprecedented SBS prediction - a tie! Stealers 29, Vikes 29.

Green Bay (3-2) at Cleveland (1-5) +7.5
Last week’s game against Detroit was an enigma: the Packers had 14 on the board by the 6 minute mark, and then it was 4 field goals the rest of the afternoon. Against 3 second string D linemen, the Pack gave up 5 sacks. 7 penalties were committed including 4 by Chad Clifton. The running game has gotten so bad that the Pack signed Ahman Green to a one year deal. Mark Tauscher is still not ready to play and Green is at least a week out. On a positive note, Nick Barnett is playing like a man possessed, while Atari Bigby laid what Dan Glarus called “an epic hit” on some unsuspecting Lions receiver. BTW, kudos to Dan who chose a local Wisconsin beer as his SBS name to honor his home state. Despite my reservations about the team and its moronic looking head coach (Mike “we’re going to get that cleaned up” McCarthy) I’ll take the Packers and give the points. Besides, there’s been an outbreak of swine flu on the Browns. No, seriously. Packers 34 Browns17

Swine flu outbreak for the Browns? Yikes. WTF is that team's facility like, a Civil War era infirmary? I mean, remember how many people got staph infection on that team? In fact, I think good ol' Joe Jurivicius was attempting to sue the team for their neglect once he got it. Not sure where that case went. They probably settled under the table. As if the Browns don't have enough problems... Packers 27, Browns 10.

New England (4-2) vs Tampa Bay (0-6) +14.5
Once again I’m a bit fearful about pulling the trigger on this one. That’s a lot of points to give, but really, after what the Patriots did to Tennessee last week I’m not sure how I can pass this one up. That was almost unconscionable. Besides, Tampa Bay is pretty awful. Even though the Bucs are home and even though they are getting double digit points, I’ll still take New England. Fantasy players: this is the week to start Lawrence Maroney who should see ample playing time against the Bucs. New England 37 Tampa Bay 10

There's several big spreads this week... It's weird really. Whatever happened to parity? The Bucs are pretty bad, and it looks like the Brady-Moss magic may be back. That spells trouble for the rest of the league. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of the Pats defense, but it shouldn't matter against this offense. Patriots 34, Bucs 16.

San Francisco (3-2) at Houston (3-3) -3.5
Houston giving 3.5 to the Nooners? OK, I’ll go with “the odds makers are factoring in home field advantage”. Well, that and UVA great Matt Schaub has looked pretty good the last few weeks. I’m leaning towards the Nooners for several reasons. First, they’re coming off a bye so they’re rested. Second, Frank Gore is back, playing his first game since getting injured against the Vikings. Third, I anticipate the Texans will have a bit of a letdown after beating the scrappy Bengals. San Fran wins a close one: Nooners 28 Texans 27

You know, I like what the Texans have done lately on offense. I have Matt Schaub on my fantasy team and he's quietly #1 in TDs and #2 yards. Yes, really. I'm pretty sure the Niners are somewhat overrated, especially with that QB who's never asked to actually win a game for them. What the hell is his name again, Shaun Hill? The NFC West being so bad is the one reason I'm still slightly optimistic about the Seahawks season. I'll take Houston by a field goal, so not quite covering. Texans 27, Niners 24.

Indianapolis (5-0) at St. Louis (0-6) +13.5
The Colt machine keeps on rolling as they face the pathetic St. Louis Rams. This one is a no brainer: the Colts are used to playing in loud indoor stadiums and will absolutely feast on St. Louis. Coming off their bye they will be rested and poised. Oh, and without doing the math, it looks like their margin of victory over their last three games was about 18. Colts 34 Rams 10

Another huge spread. Poor Vegas can't make these spreads high enoguh. I wonder what the highest spread ever has been for an NFL game. Because we could break it this season. Colts 31, Rams 13.

Buffalo (2-4) at Carolina (2-3) -7.5
The Bills won a game last week, right? Oh yeah, against the Jets. So did Carolina, who had Tampa Bay giving them fits all afternoon. This is one of those games where I’m sitting here in my hotel wondering why on earth do I have to even think about this??? I’m leaning towards the Bills, who are getting a TD. I think they’ll keep the Cats honest. Panthers 20 Bills 17

The Panthers have cost me two games by half a point in my pick 'em pool. (Where I'm still in first place by a slim one-game margin by the way.) I don't trust them any more. Jake Delhomme would have been benched weeks ago if they had a backup that wasn't CFL material. They can't even get their running game going. I don't trust the Bills at all (where the hell has TO been?), but I trust the Panthers less. Bills 23, Panthers 21.

NY Jets (3-3) at Oakland (2-4) +6.5
How quickly things have come apart for the Jets. It took 4 weeks but teams figured out they can run on Rex Ryan’s D, and run they have. I have a feeling now that the District Attorney announced that no charges would be filed against Oakland head coach Tom Cable, the big idiot might actually coach a smart game. Lots of running for the Raiders, who keep it close enough to at least cover: Jets 23 Raiders 20

I'm not letting last week's win fool me - the Raiders still blow. Although I'm less convinced that Dirty Sanchez doesn't blow. I think he threw another pick to the Bills! The whole crazyness with Cable breaking his assistant's jaw is pretty entertaining. As much as I'd like to see the Raiders become competitive again, that team is a disaster. Jets 26, Raiders 17.

Chicago (3-2) at Cincinnati (4-2) -1.5
Big test for Da Bears who just signed Jay Cutler to a two year extension. I read where another Bears linebacker went down, but I think the Bears have enough to win. The Bengals came down to earth a bit last week and I think, like water, they will find their own level. That point spread is real tight, but I’m going with the Bears and hoping to be wrong: Bears 24 Bengals 20

Letdown game for the Bengals. They're due for a bad one. The strange thing this season has been the Cinci defense has actually looked pretty good. I think Cutler and Forte can carve them up a bit by mixing up the run and pass. Bears 23, Bengals 20.

New Orleans (5-0) at Miami (2-3) +6.5
Here’s one of those games where Miami tries to control the ball and succeeds, only to have Drew Brees throw four TDs in 17 minutes of possession. As St. Ides likes to say, I’ll keep riding the Saints until they prove me wrong. BTW, they put up 48 points against a pretty solid D last week… Saints 38 Dolphins 20.

Exactly, I'm taking the Saints until they lose and fail to cover. Hell, even then, I might keep taking them. They seem like as sure a thing as you're going to get in the NFL these days. That spread worries me though. With all these double-digit spreads, why is this one less than a touchdown? It's like Vegas is begging everyone to take the Saints. Which means they really think the Dolphins will win. Who knows, maybe that wild cat nonsense will cause trouble for the still non-dominant Saints D? I'm very tempted to take Miami and the points at home... But I just can't go against Bress right now. Can't do it. Saints 41, Dolphons 34.

Atlanta (4-1) at Dallas (3-2) -3.5
I tempted to take the cowpokes at home, but I really like Atlanta. I’m surprised this line isn’t closer. The Falcons beat a solid Bears squad last week, and no one is going to tell me that the Cowboys are better than the Bears. Even at home in their fancy new stadium. I’m going with Atlanta: Falcons 34 Cowboys 31

Agree totally. I like the Falcons, though they do have flaws. Their sole loss is in New England right as the Pats seemed to find their mojo again. And I think America is starting to realize what I've been saying for years now - Tony Romo just isn't all that great. Falcons 27, Cowboys 20.

Arizona (3-2) at NY Giants (5-1) -7.5
No knock against the Giants, but last week the Saints pretty much established who the best team in the NFC is. The Giants look to bounce back against Arizona who has surprisingly (at least to Ol’ Samichlaus) won 3 games. I like the Giants at home to win and dominate. There’s no way Kurt Warner puts on another show like he did against the Seahawks last week. Warner was lights out. Still, take the Giants who win by at least 10. Giants 30 Cardinals 20.

Yeah, the Giants will want some revenge after the thrashing by the Saints last week. And there's no way they let that happen against a crappy NFC West team at home, defending NFC champs or not. Plus, this game could be going opposite Yankees-Angels game 7 (or 6 if they get rained out on Saturday, like they're predicting) which means the crowd might be slightly empty or distracted or filled with non-Giants fans. Kurt Warner's magic has to run out one of these weeks, doesn't it? And the kind of pressure the Giants put on a QB seems like the likely formula to make that happen. Giants 24, Cardinals 13.

Philadelphia (3-2) at Washington (2-4) +7.5
The Eagles could learn a thing or two from the Phillies. The performance they put on against Oakland (Oakland!) was an abomination in the eyes of the Lord (I refer you, dear reader to the book of Leviticus). I wonder if Andy Reed is losing the team? Kudos to the Raiders for spanking them, but greater shame to the Eagles for not being prepared. On the Redskins side, things have gone from bad to worse: management has brought in Sherman Lewis to call the plays for Jim Zorn. It was “strongly suggested” to Zorn that Lewis, who has been with the team for a whopping two weeks, be given the job as play caller. But instead of getting angry and kicking ass, Zorn reluctantly agreed. It took his old buddy Steve Largent to come to his rescue. Largent said something along the lines of “To bring a guy in to call the plays who two weeks ago was collecting ping pong balls at an old age home, he was literally picking up ping pong balls at an old age home, is a disgrace”. Yoiks and away. Eagles 30 Skins 20

Hahaha. Ahhh, a rare mention of my idol (and a big reason why I'm a Seahawks fan - that and their jerseys looked cool to an impressionable 5 year old), Steve Largent. The Redskins are a pretty big mess. There's already talk that Dan Snyder is targetting one of the "Big 3" coaches for next year - Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, or Mike Holmgren. I wouldn't mind seeing Holmgren land there, especially since the rumor mill currently thinks the Cowboys will also go after him. Holmgren coaching Dallas would be unbearable. Seems to me both those owners are too meddlesome for Holmgren's ego though. Of course, a big paycheck can often cause an ego to take a back seat.. But I digress... Yes, yhe Eagles losing to the Raiders was pretty horrible. And yes, the Skins are a mess right now. But I'm taking the points under the "close divisional rival game" rule of my inconsistent picking games method. Eagles 31, Skins 27.

Week Six

While watching several games last Sunday, Ol’ Samichlaus had an epiphany: Good teams play good and bad teams play bad. When the Giants devastated the Raiders, I thought about how “clever” my pick was: “Take the Giants! Eli is hurt! The Raiders will cover!” . Bullspit. Good teams play good and bad teams play bad. Now lets see how many times I contradict myself this week.

So the picks are a bit late again this week because I’m a slacker. And because I was in Fort Lauderdale, Florida until last night. No, not vacation. Work. And it was a rude awakening coming back last night. From sunny and 90 degrees to raining and 30 degrees. I’ll try and be better about getting these up early next week yo.

NY Giants (5-0) at New Orleans (4-0) -3.5
The battle of the unbeatens, and Ol’ Samichlaus is stumped. Sure, I thought I was soooo clever last week, figuring the Giants wouldn’t put up much against the Raiders. Christ. They put up 44 against the Raiders who mercifully have the week off. This week is going to be a lot tougher against the Saints for sure. I can’t wait to read St. Ides analysis because I’m not sure how to go. Lets say Saints win and cover. Saints 24 Giants 20

This should be a fun game to watch. I’m taking the Saints because deep down I feel that the Giants defense is slightly overrated. Look at their 5 wins: Raiders, Chiefs, Skins, Bucs, and the Cowboys. And I think the Cowboys have been exposed as average-at-best by now. That’s a combined 6 wins for their opponents – and the Skins and Cowboys have 5 of those 6. So yeah, I think the Saints are going to continue to light up the scoreboard at home. Saints 31, Giants 24.

St. Louis (0-5) at Jacksonville (2-3) -9.5
I think it was SI that had an article today where the premise was there could be 4 0-16 teams this year: Tampa, St. Louis, Kansas City and Tennessee. St. Louis is pretty pathetic, and going on the road against an up and down Jaguar team could be a trap game. Sometimes the mediocre team (Jacksonville) will play to the level of its opponent. I’m going to forgo the bait and give the points. The Rams are that bad. Jacksonville 30 St. Louis 12

I saw that article. The Jaguars looked pretty horrendous against the Seahawks last week, but it seemed as if Hasselbeck with a man on a mission now that he’s back from his cracked ribs. Kyle Boller is no Matt Hasselbeck. And the Jags should bounce back nicely at home against the worst team in the league. Jags 24, Rams 10.

Houston (2-3) at Cincinnati (4-1) -4.5
Break up the Bengals! Cincy is for real, and thank goodness. Ol’ Samichlaus spent a good part of last summer in Cincinnati and let me tell you, its one step above Cleveland. The town is famous for its chili, which is made with dark bitter chocolate and cinnamon, and the townies love it. Thank goodness for Graeters, a diabetic’s nightmare for sure, but the most amazing ice cream I ever had. Meanwhile I’ve never been to Houston, but as a former girlfriend told me a long time ago “If New Jersey is America’s armpit, then Houston is its asshole” Cincinnati 30 Houston 24

Mmmmm chilli…. Yep, I’m starting to believe in the Bengals, especially after last week’s win over the Ravens. Cedric Benson was the first back to run for over 100 yards against Baltimore in something ridiculous like 35 games. Over 2 full seasons without giving up a 100 yard rusher. That’s pretty crazy. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco seem to have turned back the clock, and this might just be a playoff team. Of course, their coach is still Marvin Lewis, so they could implode at any time. Not yet though. Maybe after Halloween. Bengals 29, Texans 24.

Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2) -14.5
The Steelers made me look bad last week. Again. By only beating the Lions by 7, they showed me that the team really can’t play without Ms. Clairol, Troy Polamalu. Honestly, those commercials with him are a little gay. Who knew he had such a high voice? The line seems a bit out of line, and I’m gathering that’s because Polamalu is back, so I’m going to bite. I’ll take Cleveland and the points: Steelers 28 Browns 20
PS: St. Ides, I just noticed the spelling of “Stealers” on last week’s pick! How long have you been doing that???

I’ve been doing the Stealers thing almost every week since Super Bowl XL. It’s not a typo. The Browns are pretty frickin bad. Somehow Dereck Anderson only completed two passes last week.. And they won. I’m going with my “divisional rivalry games are usually competitive no matter how good or bad one team is” theory on this one… Even though it hasn’t worked so well this season so far. Stealers 23, Browns 10.

Carolina (1-3) at Tampa Bay (0-5) +3.5
…and here is YOUR SBS stinker. How bad is Tampa Bay? I don’t even know where to begin. I know that memory can be a bit short sighted, but if last years’ Lions played this year’s Bucs, I think the Lions would win. Tampa is so desperate that they are considering starting Rookie QB Josh Freeman (who?). Don’t be surprised if he’s playing by the third quarter. Carolina is so damn frustrating, I have no idea what to make of them. But they are better than the Bucs, a very bad football team. Take the Cats and give the points, it won’t be that close. Cats 27 Bucs 10

I believe the Bucs actually have two young QBs named Josh: Josh Johnson (who played last week) and Josh Freeman. I don’t really trust either of them to do much. The Panthers had a nice come from behind win last week. But missed covering by half a point, dammit. I’m going to say they miss covering by another half point this week too. Panthers 17, Bucs 14.

Baltimore (3-2) at Minnesota (5-0) -2.5
I won’t lie: I have a rooting interest in this game, and I’m rooting hard for the Ravens. You know, the Packers held Adrian Peterson to less than 60 yards rushing, but turnovers killed them. The Ravens are a better team than the Packers: they’re not coached by an incompetent idiot like Mike McCarthy. Plus they have an emotional leader in Ray Lewis, something else the Pack lacks. Bottom line: this is the first really decent team the Vikes have played and they’re in for a letdown. The Ravens bounce back with a win: Baltimore 30 Minnesota 27

Yeah, I agree totally with this analysis. I don’t think the Ravens lose two in a row, especially after giving up 100+ yards to Cedric Benson as I already mentioned. They’ll be stacking the box against AP. And I don’t think Favre beats them. Ravens 23, Vikings 17.

Detroit (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2) -13.5
After a bye, the Packers get some help on the O line as Chad Clifton returns and Mark Tauscher is back with the team after recovering from an ACL tear from last year. I like what I’ve heard out of Green Bay this week. The team sounds confident and fired up, and reports say that McCarthy addressed the team at midfield during Wednesday’s practice and talked about taking responsibility and playing better. Or something like that. It was out of the ordinary and the team seemed to respond. 13.5 is a lot of points, but I’m going out on a lark here. I’ll take the Packers and give the points: Green Bay 37 Detroit 17

That is a lot of points. And yes, I’m going against my “divisional games are usually close” theory I just used like a few picks ago. They missed Chad Clifton badly against the Vikes as Jared Allen had his way with the replacement. So that’s a big boost. Plus it looks like both Stafford and Calvin Johnson are still too banged up to play this week. Packers 30, Lions 10.

Kansas City (0-5) at Washington (2-3) -6.5
Washington at home against the God awful Chiefs, and all they have to do is cover 6.5? I’m in. As bad as Jason Campbell is I think he has a field day against KC, who are officially pining for the days of Herm Edwards. This one gets an honorable mention for the SBS stinker Skins 23 Chiefs 13

I’m not so convinced the Chiefs are really that bad. They’ve given the Ravens and the Cowboys both scares. I mean, they’re not a playoff team or anything. But they’re one of those bad teams that are at least somewhat competitive most games, if that makes any sense. Poor Jim Zorn. Skins 23, Chiefs 17.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Oakland (1-4) +13.5
Easy win for the Eagles against one of the worst teams I’ve ever seen. St, Ides called it last week against the Giants: The Raiders are terrible, and they proved it. Their performance against the Giants was a disgrace. Meanwhile the Eagles looked great with McNabb under center, and I see no reason to go against them, It just gets worse and worse for the Raiders: Eagles 41 Raiders 12

How Jamarcus Russell is still starting for this team I’ll never know. And I’ve seen/heard this line used at least 4 times this week, so I’m jumping on the bandwagon: the Raider’s first round pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey has more names (3) than catches (2). Eagles 37, Raiders 10.

Arizona (2-2) at Seattle (2-3) -2.5
Was Seattle a different team with Matt Hassleback running the show? You bet they were. When the Pack isn’t on TV I’ll always keep one eye on the Seahawks in honor of my partner in crime, but last week I did a double take. Seattle’s D was sick and Hassleback was terrific. Sure Arizona always plays them tough, but the Hawks are fired up… and so is the 12th man. Seattle wins and covers: Seattle 30 Arizona 24

While I’m happy and flattered you watch Seattle for me even with Holmgren gone, I’m saddened at the way you massacred the spelling of our QB’s name. It’s Hasselbeck. And yes, this is a completely different team with him under center as opposed to Seneca Wallace. And as sad as it may be for me to admit it, the pass rush and defensive line has looked better with Patrick Kerney on the sideline. They’ve been getting pressure with the front four, and Aaron Curry is starting to get the hang of this blitzing the QB thing when he’s called upon. If Seattle can get pressure on Warner without blitzing (and it seems like they should be able to), I like them to pull this one out pretty easily. Slight side note – did anyone see the pre-game ritual by Seattle fullback Owen Schmitt? That got the team psyched up. (Though the coaching staff has put a nix on it going forward.) Oh, and Schmitt’s nickname in college was “Runaway Beer Truck” so he’s a bit favorite around here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjxI9OD3h3A&feature=related
Seahawks 27, Cardinals 16.

Tennessee (0-5) at New England (3-2) -9.5
Puhleeez. This one won’t be close. New England, at home, after a tough loss to surprising Denver, look for the Patsies to come back strong. Tennessee has gone from disappointing to bad in a hurry and don’t stand a chance. New England 30 Tennessee 13

The poor Titans. I almost feel bad for Jeff Fisher. Then I remember how he was on the competition committee with Holmgren and often disagreed with him about certain rules and calls that seemed obviously wrong. Pats 27, Titans 16.

Buffalo (1-4) at NY Jets (3-2) -9.5
Dirty Sanchez and the boys come off a tough loss against the Dolphins… and yes, Ol’ Samichlaus didn’t see that one coming either kids. Up in Buffalo, things are coming unglued faster than a homemade bird feeder in a spring thaw. OK, you have to see my backyard to understand that one. See, Mrs Samichlaus and I one year bought a whole bunch of bird feeder kits from the local arts and crafts store, and Mrs Samichlaus glued them all together and painted them really pretty, and we hung them along the back fence. So they go through summer pretty much OK, but then the winter really takes a toll on them. So one day I’m out back Doing my first mow of the spring when all of a sudden…. Huh? The pick? OH! Sorry. Jets 30 Bills 17

And that’s why the spread was so low. Vegas knows what they’re doing. In my pool, 29 people took the Jets, the most popular pick of the day. 3 people took the Dolphins. So yeah, when a spread is surprisingly low, there’s probably a reason. (The second most popular pick were the damn Panthers, with 28 people taking them, including me. Only 1 person took the Skins.) The Bills are much worse than I thought they’d be, and TO looks done. Jets 26, Bills 10.

Chicago (3-1) at Atlanta (3-1) -3.5
Great test for the upstart Bears as Rick, err, Jay Cutler takes the show on the road. I like Atlanta in this game for several reasons. First, they’re at home. OK, that’s all I’ve got. It’s late. Samichlaus needs to get some sleep. What? There’s one more pick? Oh, fuck a moose. Atlanta 20 Chicago 15

The Falcons dismantled the Niners in San Fran. I like their offense. A lot. I don’t like their defense that much, but give them home field and the fact Cutler is about due to have a stinker, and I like Atlanta. Rick Cutler.. Why does that sound familiar? Wasn’t he a sales guy or something at Datalan? I can’t picture him though… Falcons 26, Bears 20.

Denver (5-0) at San Diego (2-2) -3.5
Here’s where it ends for Denver. Monday night under the lights, and the pressure is finally going to get to the Broncos. Sure they are a great home team, but traditionally they are never ever a good bet on the road. They go in as dogs, but I think it’s not even that close. I like the Bolts by 10: San Diego 24 Denver 14

Yeah, given the records and how both have played, this is one of those lines that Vegas sets to suck you in to picking Denver.. And then the bookmakers laugh all the way to the bank as the Chargers destroy them. Kyle Orton has played well so far since the regular season has started after looking awful in the pre-season. The Broncos’ crash to earth begins here. Chargers 30, Broncos 20.

Week 4 Picks Yo!

Well kids, one of us is going to tally up our picks this week… One thing that worked out better than expected was the early bye for the Packers. With the team reeling and the O line sucking like one of those Dyson vacuums, the Pack needs to regroup and “clean up” all the issues (to use a little coach speak). Truth be told, it’s going to take a little more than a “clean up” to fix their woes. I read they brought in Mark Tauscher for a workout, and want to sign him, but here it is Thursday night and he isn’t signed. I’ll bet Tightwad Ted doesn’t pull the trigger, and Tauscher goes to the Chiefs…

Got some scoreboard catching up to do:
Week 3:
St. Ides: 10-6
Samichlaus: 11-5

Week 4:
St. Ides: 7-7
Samichlaus: 9-5

Total:
Samichlaus: 36-26
St. Ides: 33-29

Oakland (1-3) at NY Giants (4-0) -15.5
After a promising start the first week of the season, the Oakland Raiders have come crashing back into the cesspool and are fighting for the title of worst team in the NFL. But the spread seems a bit high and here’s why: whether the Giants start Eli Manning or the very pretty David Carr, the game plan will be conservative. Lots of running and not a lot of passing, Sure the Giants win, but in a low scoring game. Giants 24 Raiders 10

I’m tempted to take the points, especially with David Carr in there… But how frickin bad is Jamarcus Russell? He’s pretty horrible. I suspect the Raiders offense will likely do next to nothing against this Giants D, and in a rare move, I’ll lay the double-digit points this time. Giants 24, Raiders 6.

Dallas (2-2) at Kansas City (0-4) +8.5
Dallas gets back to winning and winning easy this week. Sure, they’re not as good as they’re hyped up to be, but Kansas City is a joke. Even at home. Of course what if the Cowboys lose? I’d love to hear that “Wade Phillips has my complete confidence” news conference Jerry Jones will have to give. If that happens, Ol’ Samichlaus predicts he’ll be gone by week 10. But don’t worry Cowboy fans: you get an easy pass this week. Cowboys 30 Kansas City 10

I’ve lost all faith in Tony Romo and the Cowboys. There’s speculation he didn’t even realize it was 4th down last week on their final play of the game, as he was seen screaming at the referee holding up 3 fingers as if to say “That was only 3rd down!!!” Seems he forgot that he’d spiked the ball to stop the clock. So yeah, that Jessica Simpson curse may be working after all. I’ll take the points. Cowboys 23, Chiefs 20.

Minnesota (4-0) at St. Louis (0-4) +10.5
St. Louis is a pretty bad team, and I guess we all know by now the Vikings are a pretty good team. It’s a lot of points to give after a tough Monday night game, and Brett Favre has never played well in St. Louis, but I think it’s all a red herring, Minnesota cruises: Vikings 34 Rams 17

I hate the Vikings. The one bright spot so far for the Rams has been they’ve had some decent play from their young defense. Don’t let the scoreboard fool you, a lot of those points they’re giving up are touchdowns scored by the opponents’ defense or special teams. This is a trap game if I’ve ever seen one… Vikes pull it out, but barely. Vikings 23, Rams 17.

Washington (2-2) at Carolina (0-3) -3.5
OK, this is the week that the Panthers finally get a win. Washington play 30 good minutes of football last week and that was enough to beat the Bucs, but that won’t be enough to beat the Cats. The Panthers will look like a different team against the JV. Take the Cats and the points: Panthers 26 Redskins 13

How bad are the frickin Redskins? The Panthers had a nice early bye week and maybe that’s enough for them to get their poop together. Jake Delhomme is still on fairly thin ice, but they should be okay this week at home against a fading Skins team. Panthers 23, Skins 17.

Tampa Bay (0-4) at Philadelphia (2-1) -13.5
This one won’t be close. Westbrook is playing and so is McNabb, though here we go again with Donovan playing hurt. He’s too tough for his own good. But Philly’s D is going hold Tampa at, err, bay while the offense does more than enough to win. Fantasy players: start the Eagles D. Philadelphia 27 Tampa Bay 6

Man, there are some big spreads this week. It looks like both McNabb and Hasselbeck are going to try and play this week with their respective rib injuries. But reports say McNabb’s was worse, in that the rib actually sort of broke all the way through. Which meant they were afraid to shoot him up with pain killers because if the displaced rib punctured his lung, he wouldn’t feel it. Yikes. I don’t think he makes it through this game, and I’ll take the points. Eagles 24, Bucs 13.

Pittsburgh (2-2) at Detroit (1-3) +10.5
Pittsburgh made a nice statement last week and should have little trouble against the Lions. Did anyone see the second half of Detroit – Chicago? The Lions quit after the first 30 minutes against an improving Bears team, and that told me something: they have no heart. I like Pittsburg giving the points: Steelers 37 Lions 20.

I had the Lions last week in my money pool, and I was looking good for awhile. Then Stafford got hurt, and we saw Daunte Culpepper enter the game. And that “keeping it close” quickly became “there goes my first place position.” Still, the Stealers aren’t all that and I think they can struggle on the road this season, especially since they’ve had some difficulty establishing a consistent running game. Stealers 26, Lions 20.

Cleveland (0-4) at Buffalo (1-3) -5.5
Don’t you just love those shots of T.O. sitting on the sidelines looking all pissed off and stuff? I know, Ol’ Samichlaus’s empathy for Mr. Owens lasted all of one week. This week the Bills should have an easy win. Yes, Derek Anderson is playing QB for the Browns, and yes they look much improved, but the Bills are ready to win. Things are weird up in Buffalo.... Bills 28 Browns 20

I think the Browns didn’t get nearly enough for Braylon Edwards. A decent WR, a special teamer, a 3rd and 5th? Keep in mind the Lions got two 1st rounders for Roy Williams. TWO! And their career numbers are almost identical (with neither of them really having a good QB throwing to them for any extended length of time.) I have no idea what the story with T.O. is.. Is he not getting open? Has age finally caught up with him and caused him to lose a step? Is Trent Edwards just not looking for him? It seems silly to have gone out and risk picking up a potentially divisive personality like Owens and then not use him. Bills 26, Browns 16.

Cincinnati (3-1) at Baltimore (3-1) -8.5
Cincinnati gets derailed this week against the Ravens, who are out to get back on track after losing to the referees, err, the Patriots last week in Foxboro. I’ll admit that the Bengals are better than I thought they’d be and may keep this game surprisingly close, but I’m banking that the Ravens will be fired up enough after last week to win by 10. Ravens 23 Bengals 13

Might the Bengals be for real? Did I mention they’re one wacky tipped pass fluke TD away from being 4-0 right now? Divisional clash, I think I’ll take those points. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco have turned back the clock. Ravens 24, Bengals 20.

Atlanta (2-1) at San Francisco (3-1) -2.5
Well well well. Holdout Michael Crabtree finally signed… I can’t wait to see him get hit a few times. The good news is the 49ers apparently held their ground and paid exactly what they wanted for this prima donna’s services. Now don’t get me wrong, Ol’ Samichlaus is a friend of the working man, but in tough economic times I have very little sympathy for a guy who balks at 32 million because he’s looking for 38 million. Crabtree notwithstanding, I like the Niners in this game. Not a lot of in depth analysis here, just a gut feeling. Niners 20 Falcons 17

I’m selling on the Falcons after taking them in New England two weeks ago and them letting me down. On the radio this morning, some talking head was saying how Atlanta is an undersized defense, and this makes it harder for them on the road where they don’t have crowd noise giving them an advantage getting off on the snap. I’m not sure how true it is, but it sounded like the guy knew what he was talking about. The X-factor is still Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez though. I’m convinced they can be good enough on any given Sunday to beat most teams. I really need the Niners to lose to Seattle can claw their way back into the playoff hunt… So let’s not forget their QB is some dude named Shaun Hill who is about due to cost them a game. Falcons 26, Niners 23.

New England (3-1) at Denver (4-0) +3.5
Samichlaus is no fool. New England is back and they’re ready to take it to Denver. As I predicted, New England continues to improve, but even Ol’ Samichlaus has to admit he didn’t see it happening this fast. Now, everyone knows I love Denver at home, but three and a half isn’t enough for me to take the bait. I’ll go with the Pats: Patriots 30 Denver 26

The spread says it all – Vegas ain’t buying into Denver’s 4-0 record (including that aforementioned fluke TD against the Bengals, and victories over the horrendous Browns and Raiders). And neither am I. The reports of the Patriots’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. Well, maybe not that greatly. I still think their defense is quite vulnerable. But their offense and Tom Brady should be okay. Pats 27, Broncos 20.

Houston (2-2) at Arizona (1-2) -5.5
Arizona is coming off a bye, and I like their chances this week at home. I said they would win four games this year, right? Let’s give ‘em this one only because they are coming off said bye. By the way kids, Virginia Cavalier standout Matt Schaub is one of the most accurate passers in the league with a career percentage of 66.2%. We love the Cavs at the Samichlaus household: UVA believes in education first, football second, as opposed to Virginia Tech where in English class they teach the students that at the end of a sentence you make an appeal. OK, it’s an old Rodney Dangerfield joke. Cardinals 30 Texans 23

Hahaha, that’s a good one! With Jeff Garcia unsigned, we need other sources of humor, and what better than some old school Rodney! I’m all over Houston in this one. Warner has looked pretty old and beat up, and the Texans offense has looked pretty good since the Jets throttled them in Week One. Watch Andre Johnson outplay Larry Fitzgerald and the Super Bowl Loser Curse to continue as the Cardinals fall deeper into their hole. Texans 27, Cardinals 20.

Jacksonville (2-2) at Seattle (1-3) -1.5
Call me crazy but I’m taking the Seahawks. Matt Hassleback is back under the saddle, and although Walter Jones is still out I’m betting that Hassleback will make the difference. The Jaguars are an attractive pick, but they’re all over the map this year. Add the crowd, the west coast time change, and Jacksonville comes up short. Seahawks 27 Jaguars 24

I’m busting out the reverse jinx for the first time this year. Yes, it looks like Hasselbeck will play. And yes, Seneca Wallace was single-handedly responsible for losing the Bears game (okay, maybe not single-handedly, Olindo Mare could have hit those two field goals he missed) and made some mistakes early in the Colts game to let it slip away quickly. I’ve been on some Seahawks boards where people insist that Wallace has the talent to be a starting QB in this league. While he’s extremely athletic, he just doesn’t have a very high football IQ. The Colts were able to put 8 guys in the box all game last week because Seneca is totally inaccurate beyond 10 yards. And they brought the heat during obvious passing plays. Hasselbeck has the intelligence and the freedom to audible at the line, something I’m sure Wallace is unable to do. A couple draw plays, a couple screen passes, a couple shots down the field, and guess what, there’s suddenly not 8 in the box any more. Anyways, yeah, Hasselbeck and Wallace is like night and day. All that said, their offensive line and defense are still banged up, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maurice Jones-Drew run all over them. Jaguars 27, Seahawks 24.

Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4) +3.5
This line has got to be a misprint. But I’ll tell you what: 3.5 or 13.5, it wouldn’t make a difference. Indy is going to walk all over the Titans. Peyton Manning has played as well as I’ve ever seen him play, and that’s saying something. Consider that he’s doing it all with pedestrian receivers. I’m taking the Colts, no questions asked. Colts 38 Titans 10

I think that line is taking into consideration that this is a divisional rivalry that is usually a pretty close game. And you know what, I’m buying it. The Titans are not as bad as their 0-4 record indicates, and Chris Johnson is due for another huge game. I’ll take the points. Colts 27, Titans 26.

NY Jets (3-1) at Miami (1-3) +1.5
The NFL Network is showing that Jets – Miami game on “Greatest 4th Quarters”, the one where Vinny goes nuts and throws for over 200 yards in the quarter and rallies the Jets who were down something like 30 – 0. It’s a reminder of something my Father in Law always says. No matter how good the Dolphins are and no matter how bad the Jets are, the Jets always seem to beat the Fins. This year, the Jets are good and the Dolphins are running a college offense. The Jets win and cover: Jets 29 Fins 27

This spread seems a bit low. I mean, just because the Dolphins destroyed the Bills last week doesn’t mean they’re suddenly a contender. I like Chad Henne, but I think Rex Ryan has some surprises in store for him and he struggles a lot. Meanwhile, let’s see what Dirty Sanchez can do with his new offensive weapon Braylon Edwards. That’s a pretty important addition to the Jets, and he may just be the piece they need to overtake the Pats to claim the division. Jets 26, Fins 17.

Burning down the house?

For those of you who didn't bother to click on the links in my earlier post, I thought you might enjoy this. Ever wonder why you never see Packers GM Ted Thompson and Talking Heads frontman David Byrne in the same room together? Click on the "Read the rest" link and it will, uhh, start making sense...

Today on the Green Bay edition of Craigs List...

This appeared on the Green Bay Craigs List today. In these difficult economic times I'm glad someone is hiring: http://greenbay.craigslist.org/spo/1409654641.html

More on @NickBarnett and my beloved Packers

Several weeks ago Nick Barnett announced a self imposed moratorium on tweeting, saying he would not be using twitter until the off-season. Less than 24 hours later he was tweeting again.

After the Packers lost to the Vikings last night, Nick Barnett tweeted this to his now 38,373 followers:

“I just want to thank everyone who was with us today.. It was a really tough battle but we did not give up.. We did not get the result we wanted but we will do everything we must to become the packer team we are capable of being. We have a lot of talent and great guys in that locker room we will be fine as long as the packet nation stays behind us and give us all there support!! This is not the time to divide”

What amazes me about Nick is not that he was tweeting less than 24 hours after his self imposed moratorium, nor that not only was he tweeting less than 24 hours after his self imposed moratorium but he was also blogging on his barnett56.com web site, no. What amazes me about Nick is how sensitive the big wuss is.

You might recall that when confronted with a little criticism from the fans after the loss to the Bengals, Barnett suggested that we should "kiss (his) ass". He referred to the critics as “haters” and even cleverly dedicated a song called “Hate” by Jay-Z to “all the haters”. On this blog I observed that Barnett came across as thin skinned. It seemed odd to me that after a crushing defeat to the Bengals the thing that really pissed him off was the fans reaction to the team’s poor performance and to Barnett’s inappropriate showboating. Barnett seemed overly egotistical and overly sensitive. But are these generalizations about Barnett’s character correct? After all, Ol’ Samichlaus is just a blog bloviator who is named after a rare beer. So let’s look at Barnett’s three tweets from last night and try to read between the lines.

Barnett begins with an appeal to the positive: “I just want to thank everyone who was with us today..” Nice preemptive strike Nick. Thank the fans before they have a chance to tell you that you all sucked. Again. Barnett then goes for the sympathy angle: “It was a really tough battle but we did not give up..” Yes, it was tough out there. Especially for your quarterback who was knocked on his ass, what, 8 times? The only people who had it tougher than you Nick was that idiot Ted Thompson and the, oh, 14 million or so Packer fans that tuned in. Barnett continues: “We did not get the result we wanted but we will do everything we must to become the packer team we are capable of being.” Right…. Just keep swimming, swimming, swimming. I’ve got news for you Nick. This is the best this team is capable of. You guys lack talent, and you lack guts, just like your David Byrne look-alike GM. You let the Vikings walk all over you, and relax: by you I mean the Packers. Barnett finishes off with my favorite: a plea not to hurt his feelings. “We have a lot of talent and great guys in that locker room we will be fine as long as the packet nation stays behind us and give us all there support!! This is not the time to divide”

"This is not the time to divide"?

Into what? Like, half the room thinks the Packers lack skill and fundamentals, while the other half thinks the Packers lack talent and leadership? No, what Nick is saying is “Please don’t fill my twitter inbox with vitriolic claptrap. You’ll hurt my feelings”. Nick, Packer Nation will always stand behind our team. We’ve been here longer than you and we’ll be here longer than you. The question you have to ask yourself is, are you worthy of that uniform you wear? You’re a linebacker for cripes sake. You think Ray Nitschke would be begging for sensitivity? Also Nick, “vitriolic claptrap” means like “angry words that really have no meaning”

The Packers lost a game last night because they couldn’t pressure the quarterback, and they gave up way too much pressure on theirs. Aaron Rogers was tentative at times and it cost him. The offensive line played terrible. Donald Lee dropped a touchdown pass. The Packers committed 9 penalties to the Vikings 1. They turned the ball over three times (counting the safety they gave up). They look poorly coached and poorly prepared. After the game, defensive players like Charles Woodson wondered when they were planning on unleashing the defense, as opposed to the conservative play calling coordinator Dom Capers has rolled out the last several weeks. And when it’s all said and done, Mike McCarthy is ultimately responsible for a team that has no rhythm on offense, can’t protect its quarterback, and makes too many mental mistakes.

I think the team lacks balls. I said that to my wife today. They haven’t had an emotional leader since Reggie White played all those years ago. But they do have Nick Barnett, who appears to be less and less a man and more and more of this sweet young fellow. Time to grow a set and grow up.

One final note: Last night our friend Dan from Wausau WI came over to watch the game with Mrs. Samichlaus. Dan attends graduate school at VCU, and is studying sports medicine (he’s the only guy I’ve ever seen get all excited when Dr. Patrick Mckenzie runs on the field to tend to an injured Packer). As our regular SBS readers know, I am on the road staying in a hotel. Prior to the kickoff I was on the phone with Mrs. Samichlaus and Dan. “I have an HD TV in my room” I snickered, and followed up with “Are you jealous?” “Yes, I am jealous” replied Dan. “Of course,” he continued, “I have your wife”.

Game, set, and match.

Dan plans on running the Richmond marathon on November 14th, which he may find a bit challenging with a dozen or so of Samichlaus’s delicious extra hot chicken wings shoved up his ass.

Week 4 Picks, Part 1 (and part 1.5)

Hey kids, Ol' Samichlaus here. Looks like St. Ides might be taking his bye week a little early so I've decided to post my picks. Hope you enjoy and make a few extra elves with the knowledge I shall impart.

Yeah, sorry, I suck. I was off yesterday and didn't get any free time until really late on Thursday night, so here's my short additions.

This week I’ve decided to write a bit of an introduction. I think it’s absolutely awesome that NFL Players, coaches, and referees will be sporting pink accoutrements this week in honor of breast cancer awareness month. Mega kudos! When the Packers started selling pink hats several years ago, Mrs. Samichlaus got one of the first ones available, and for every hat purchased the Packers donated $5.00 to the American Cancer Society. The response was so overwhelming, the hats sold out on the first day. Much of that response was due to Deanna Favre, whose well known battle with breast cancer was front and center on Packer fans radar. Packer fans are always years ahead of the rest of the league, but I’m glad the league has finally figured it out.

I have a few other random thoughts. First, I haven’t tallied up the scores last week, but at first glance it looked like St. Ides and I had boffo weeks. Second, the circus officially comes to Minnesota this Monday night in a game that I ultimately think will be disappointing and one sided. Third, I am absolutely in love with my writing these days so I figure I’d share the love with our throngs of readers by writing this mostly mindless dribble (except for the part above). Oh, and fourth, Ol’ Samichlaus has discovered that the real reason why the Eagles let go of Jeff Garcia was because Garcia was insisting on wearing his pink “Breast Cancer Awareness” panties into the shower.


NY Giants (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3) +9.5
I’m not getting suckered into that whole “Kansas City at home” thing again. The Giants are the second best story in New York these days and are absolutely the real deal. Eli Manning continues to mature as a quarterback, and the Giants D gets better and better. KC will have a hard time scoring against the Jints: Giants 31 Kansas City 10
Yeah, the Chiefs blow. Giants 27, Chiefs 6.

Baltimore (3-0) at New England (2-1) -2.5
I went against New England last week… will I be fool enough to do it again? Yes! I think the Patriot are going to get better and better this year, but the comeback trail gets derailed against a tough Ravens team. It will be close, but the Ravens pull it out with a field goal at the buzzer: wait, that’s a basketball metaphor… a field goal at the gun: Ravens 23 Patriots 21
I was wrong about the Falcons coming in and beating the Pats last week. I might be wrong again, but I'm taking the Ravens. I'm starting to believe this Flacco kid is for real. Ravens 27, Pats 20.

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3) +5.5
I feel a lot better about losing to Cincinnati after Cincy put the smackdown on the Steelers. What the fuck? All of a sudden Carson Palmer (who many years ago Boomer Esiason called “the best young quarterback in the game) is playing like Carson Palmer, and the Bengals are playing inspired football. Cleveland on the other hand is coming apart at the seams. The Cleveland press is calling the hiring of Eric Mangini “the worst managerial hiring of any sport, anytime, anywhere”. Guess they never met Scot Hillier. Cincinnati 34 Cleveland 17
Hahaha, oh man. Anytime we get a Scot Hillier joke worked in, we're in for a good week. (Let's see how long this takes to show up on Google and a subsequent request for it to be removed as to not hurt his professional career.) You realize the Bungals are that freak deflection TD against Denver from being 3-0? Bengals 28, Browns 17.

Seattle (1-2) at Indianapolis (3-0) -8.5
Walter Jones: Out. Sean Locklear: Out. Matt Hassleback: Out. Granted, Seattle played the Bears tough at home last week, but on the road at India-no-place, St. Ides boys in, well now what exactly was that color they were wearing? Sorry. St. Ides boys in blue don’t have a prayer. Indy wins and covers: Indianapolis 30 Seattle 20
No chance. Seattle is staring at 1-3 and will face an uphill climb to make the playoffs. The longer Hasselbeck is out, the deeper the hole. Colts 29, Seahawks 13.

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (2-1) -10.5
Detroit finally got off the, uhh, “Loser Acela Express” last week by beating the Redskins as St. Ides and Ol’ Samichlaus predicted. Now let’s not get too excited here. Detroit will not beat the Bears, but they’ll keep it closer than 10.5. The Bears are getting better and better and should cruise this week. But it will be a small cruise on a wooden ship. Bears 24 Lions 20
I agree. They'll keep this close. The Bears are very lucky to be 2-1 at this point. Bears 23, Lions 17.

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Washington (1-2) -7.5
And here, my friends, is your Samichlaus SBS Stinker of the week. Let’s get this straight: The Skins are giving a TD+ to an NFL team? OK. Some may argue that the Bucs are not really an NFL team now… but neither are the Rams, and the Skins barely beat them. If you want to see awful, uninspired football, tune in to this gem. Oh, and take the Bucs: Washington 10 Tampa Bay 7
You're making my job easy this week. The Skins barely beat the frickin Rams. The Bucs are bad, but the Skins are a disaster. Skins 17, Bucs 13.

Oakland (1-2) at Houston (1-2) -9.5
The only reason that this isn’t your SBS Stinker is because it doesn’t get much worse than Tampa and Washington. Oakland came back to earth last week with a crushing loss to Denver. In this game the Raiders managed to muster 3 points over the course of 60 minutes. The Texans took a tough loss to the Jaguars, but managed to put up 24. I’ll go with the Texans and give the points, cause it won’t matter: Houston 24 Oakland 10
Matt Schaub is starting to look like the QB Houston expected him to be when they traded a bunch of picks to the Falcons for him. I think they'll start to put together some wins here. Texans 31, Raiders 17.

TTennessee (0-3) at Jacksonville (1-2) +3.5
The odds makers think the Titans get off the, uhh, “No-win-Pony” this week and are making them the favorites by a field goal +. I’m not biting. Jacksonville lost to a much improved Jets team last week and I see them fighting the good fight against the Titans. I like Jacksonville to win, keeping the Titans on the, uhh, “Zero Win Toboggan”. Jaguars 20 Titans 17
I think you have it slightly backwards dude. The Titans are the ones who lost to the Jets last week, no? You just said the Jags beat the Texans in your previous post. Anyways, I'm going with the rare road favorite pick this time. Titans 26, Jags 20.
Buffalo (1-2) at Miami (0-3) +2.5
Michigan standout Chad Henne takes over for injured Chad Pennington as Miami takes on the Bills at home, and I can’t help be reminded of another Michigan QB taking over for an aging veteran several years ago. I wonder what Henne will do with this opportunity? I always liked Henne, and I’m looking forward to this game. Meanwhile Buffalo is coming apart at the seams. For the first time in my life I actually felt sorry for T.O., who was absolutely badgered by the Buffalo press. They were rude and confrontational, and I swear I was wishing T.O. would go all Bobby Knight on them. Anyway, I think Miami finally gets off the, uhh, “We haven’t won Himalayan Yak” and defeats the Bills: Miami 24 Buffalo 21
As a Michigan fan ("Ty Law gets alllllllllllll my love") I always liked Henne too. Except that he went 0-4 against Ohio State. Ugh. Not all his fault, but come on, if you're going to be a good pro QB at least beat Ohio State once. Should be a close game, I'll take the home dog. Bills 24, Dolphins 23.

NY Jets (3-0) at New Orleans (3-0) -6.5
Here’s where it ends for the Amazing Jets. As much as I like the Jets this year, I like the Saints more. Drew Brees is hands down the best Quarterback in the league right now. He is absolutely lights out. It will be a learning experience for the Jets young colt, Marc Sanchez, who will taste defeat for the first time in his budding career. The Saints win by 10: New Orleans 30 New York Jets 20
I'm taking the Saints until they prove me wrong. Saints 31, Jets 20.

St. Louis (0-3) at San Francisco (2-1) -10.5
After getting stunned by Brett Favre and the Vikings, San Francisco will be primed to take it out on the lowly Rams. If the Packer can beat them by double digits, then the Niners should breeze by without too much hassle. Did I mention that I love what Mike Singletary is doing out there? Niners 31 Rams 10
Tough tough loss for the Niners last week. I'm still not completely sold on them, but they get an easy bounce-back game against the horrendous Rams. Niners 24, Rams 10.

Dallas (2-1) at Denver (3-0) +3.5
The 3-0 Broncos??? Why not go to 4-0? I love Denver in this game. I’m beginning to see St. Ides’ vision when it comes to Tony Romo: he’s way overrated and really just a part of the Cowboy hype machine. That whole team is overrated, well except for coach Wade Phillips who is in no danger of being overrated any time soon. I always like Denver at home, but Denver as a home dog? I’m having pavlovian salivations… Denver 24 Dallas 20
Did anyone mention the supposed "curse" Jessica Simpson put on Romo when he dumped her? If not, I'm mentioning it now. I predict he's not even the Dallas starting QB within 3 years. Broncos 23, Cowboys 20.

San Diego (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5
Pittsburgh has been disappointing to say the least. A loss to the Bears, and a stunning loss to the Bengals shows me that this is not a very good Steelers team. Troy Palomalu is hurt and so is Willie Parker, and I’m starting to question if that’s all it takes to bring the Steelers down? On the opposite side is Norv Turner, another overrated head coach who (I have to say) has done a pretty good job with the Bolts. I think Pittsburgh’s injuries catch up to them: Steelers 24 Chargers 21
That's a lot of points for a pretty underwhelming looking team to be giving a legitimate playoff contender. Chargers 26, Stealers 13.

Green Bay (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0) -3.5
This much anticipated game won’t be much of a game, and here’s why. The Vikings simply match up too well against the Packers. The weakest link on the Packers thus far has been the Offensive line. Their left guard Chad Clifton is hurt. They can’t block for Ryan Grant and they can’t protect Aaron Rogers. The Vikings have a terrific Defensive line. No one can run on them. The Packers have no one to stop them, and Aaron Rogers is in for a long night. The second weakest link on the Packers is their inability to stop the run. Here are the rushing statics against the Packers for the first three games:

Week 1 – 86 yards to the Bears (OK, not too bad)
Week 2- 151 yards to the Bengals (uh oh)
Week 3 – 149 yards to the Rams (yoiks and away)

We were joking at work this week , and I asked “How many yards you think Adrian Peterson goes for this week? 500? 600?” Honestly, I don’t think the Packers will be able to stop him. Peterson could easily go for 200 yards or more. Finally, you know Brett wants to win this game bad. That in and of itself is enough reason for me to take the Vikings. Vikings 34 Packers 20.
Don't underestimate the revenge factor. And I don't mean Favre getting revenge on the Packers. I mean the opposite. I think Rodgers finds a way to will Green Bay to a win, and Favre throws one of his patented game-killer picks late. Packers 27, Vikings 20.