Week 4 Picks, Part 1 (and part 1.5)

Hey kids, Ol' Samichlaus here. Looks like St. Ides might be taking his bye week a little early so I've decided to post my picks. Hope you enjoy and make a few extra elves with the knowledge I shall impart.

Yeah, sorry, I suck. I was off yesterday and didn't get any free time until really late on Thursday night, so here's my short additions.

This week I’ve decided to write a bit of an introduction. I think it’s absolutely awesome that NFL Players, coaches, and referees will be sporting pink accoutrements this week in honor of breast cancer awareness month. Mega kudos! When the Packers started selling pink hats several years ago, Mrs. Samichlaus got one of the first ones available, and for every hat purchased the Packers donated $5.00 to the American Cancer Society. The response was so overwhelming, the hats sold out on the first day. Much of that response was due to Deanna Favre, whose well known battle with breast cancer was front and center on Packer fans radar. Packer fans are always years ahead of the rest of the league, but I’m glad the league has finally figured it out.

I have a few other random thoughts. First, I haven’t tallied up the scores last week, but at first glance it looked like St. Ides and I had boffo weeks. Second, the circus officially comes to Minnesota this Monday night in a game that I ultimately think will be disappointing and one sided. Third, I am absolutely in love with my writing these days so I figure I’d share the love with our throngs of readers by writing this mostly mindless dribble (except for the part above). Oh, and fourth, Ol’ Samichlaus has discovered that the real reason why the Eagles let go of Jeff Garcia was because Garcia was insisting on wearing his pink “Breast Cancer Awareness” panties into the shower.


NY Giants (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3) +9.5
I’m not getting suckered into that whole “Kansas City at home” thing again. The Giants are the second best story in New York these days and are absolutely the real deal. Eli Manning continues to mature as a quarterback, and the Giants D gets better and better. KC will have a hard time scoring against the Jints: Giants 31 Kansas City 10
Yeah, the Chiefs blow. Giants 27, Chiefs 6.

Baltimore (3-0) at New England (2-1) -2.5
I went against New England last week… will I be fool enough to do it again? Yes! I think the Patriot are going to get better and better this year, but the comeback trail gets derailed against a tough Ravens team. It will be close, but the Ravens pull it out with a field goal at the buzzer: wait, that’s a basketball metaphor… a field goal at the gun: Ravens 23 Patriots 21
I was wrong about the Falcons coming in and beating the Pats last week. I might be wrong again, but I'm taking the Ravens. I'm starting to believe this Flacco kid is for real. Ravens 27, Pats 20.

Cincinnati (2-1) at Cleveland (0-3) +5.5
I feel a lot better about losing to Cincinnati after Cincy put the smackdown on the Steelers. What the fuck? All of a sudden Carson Palmer (who many years ago Boomer Esiason called “the best young quarterback in the game) is playing like Carson Palmer, and the Bengals are playing inspired football. Cleveland on the other hand is coming apart at the seams. The Cleveland press is calling the hiring of Eric Mangini “the worst managerial hiring of any sport, anytime, anywhere”. Guess they never met Scot Hillier. Cincinnati 34 Cleveland 17
Hahaha, oh man. Anytime we get a Scot Hillier joke worked in, we're in for a good week. (Let's see how long this takes to show up on Google and a subsequent request for it to be removed as to not hurt his professional career.) You realize the Bungals are that freak deflection TD against Denver from being 3-0? Bengals 28, Browns 17.

Seattle (1-2) at Indianapolis (3-0) -8.5
Walter Jones: Out. Sean Locklear: Out. Matt Hassleback: Out. Granted, Seattle played the Bears tough at home last week, but on the road at India-no-place, St. Ides boys in, well now what exactly was that color they were wearing? Sorry. St. Ides boys in blue don’t have a prayer. Indy wins and covers: Indianapolis 30 Seattle 20
No chance. Seattle is staring at 1-3 and will face an uphill climb to make the playoffs. The longer Hasselbeck is out, the deeper the hole. Colts 29, Seahawks 13.

Detroit (1-2) at Chicago (2-1) -10.5
Detroit finally got off the, uhh, “Loser Acela Express” last week by beating the Redskins as St. Ides and Ol’ Samichlaus predicted. Now let’s not get too excited here. Detroit will not beat the Bears, but they’ll keep it closer than 10.5. The Bears are getting better and better and should cruise this week. But it will be a small cruise on a wooden ship. Bears 24 Lions 20
I agree. They'll keep this close. The Bears are very lucky to be 2-1 at this point. Bears 23, Lions 17.

Tampa Bay (0-3) at Washington (1-2) -7.5
And here, my friends, is your Samichlaus SBS Stinker of the week. Let’s get this straight: The Skins are giving a TD+ to an NFL team? OK. Some may argue that the Bucs are not really an NFL team now… but neither are the Rams, and the Skins barely beat them. If you want to see awful, uninspired football, tune in to this gem. Oh, and take the Bucs: Washington 10 Tampa Bay 7
You're making my job easy this week. The Skins barely beat the frickin Rams. The Bucs are bad, but the Skins are a disaster. Skins 17, Bucs 13.

Oakland (1-2) at Houston (1-2) -9.5
The only reason that this isn’t your SBS Stinker is because it doesn’t get much worse than Tampa and Washington. Oakland came back to earth last week with a crushing loss to Denver. In this game the Raiders managed to muster 3 points over the course of 60 minutes. The Texans took a tough loss to the Jaguars, but managed to put up 24. I’ll go with the Texans and give the points, cause it won’t matter: Houston 24 Oakland 10
Matt Schaub is starting to look like the QB Houston expected him to be when they traded a bunch of picks to the Falcons for him. I think they'll start to put together some wins here. Texans 31, Raiders 17.

TTennessee (0-3) at Jacksonville (1-2) +3.5
The odds makers think the Titans get off the, uhh, “No-win-Pony” this week and are making them the favorites by a field goal +. I’m not biting. Jacksonville lost to a much improved Jets team last week and I see them fighting the good fight against the Titans. I like Jacksonville to win, keeping the Titans on the, uhh, “Zero Win Toboggan”. Jaguars 20 Titans 17
I think you have it slightly backwards dude. The Titans are the ones who lost to the Jets last week, no? You just said the Jags beat the Texans in your previous post. Anyways, I'm going with the rare road favorite pick this time. Titans 26, Jags 20.
Buffalo (1-2) at Miami (0-3) +2.5
Michigan standout Chad Henne takes over for injured Chad Pennington as Miami takes on the Bills at home, and I can’t help be reminded of another Michigan QB taking over for an aging veteran several years ago. I wonder what Henne will do with this opportunity? I always liked Henne, and I’m looking forward to this game. Meanwhile Buffalo is coming apart at the seams. For the first time in my life I actually felt sorry for T.O., who was absolutely badgered by the Buffalo press. They were rude and confrontational, and I swear I was wishing T.O. would go all Bobby Knight on them. Anyway, I think Miami finally gets off the, uhh, “We haven’t won Himalayan Yak” and defeats the Bills: Miami 24 Buffalo 21
As a Michigan fan ("Ty Law gets alllllllllllll my love") I always liked Henne too. Except that he went 0-4 against Ohio State. Ugh. Not all his fault, but come on, if you're going to be a good pro QB at least beat Ohio State once. Should be a close game, I'll take the home dog. Bills 24, Dolphins 23.

NY Jets (3-0) at New Orleans (3-0) -6.5
Here’s where it ends for the Amazing Jets. As much as I like the Jets this year, I like the Saints more. Drew Brees is hands down the best Quarterback in the league right now. He is absolutely lights out. It will be a learning experience for the Jets young colt, Marc Sanchez, who will taste defeat for the first time in his budding career. The Saints win by 10: New Orleans 30 New York Jets 20
I'm taking the Saints until they prove me wrong. Saints 31, Jets 20.

St. Louis (0-3) at San Francisco (2-1) -10.5
After getting stunned by Brett Favre and the Vikings, San Francisco will be primed to take it out on the lowly Rams. If the Packer can beat them by double digits, then the Niners should breeze by without too much hassle. Did I mention that I love what Mike Singletary is doing out there? Niners 31 Rams 10
Tough tough loss for the Niners last week. I'm still not completely sold on them, but they get an easy bounce-back game against the horrendous Rams. Niners 24, Rams 10.

Dallas (2-1) at Denver (3-0) +3.5
The 3-0 Broncos??? Why not go to 4-0? I love Denver in this game. I’m beginning to see St. Ides’ vision when it comes to Tony Romo: he’s way overrated and really just a part of the Cowboy hype machine. That whole team is overrated, well except for coach Wade Phillips who is in no danger of being overrated any time soon. I always like Denver at home, but Denver as a home dog? I’m having pavlovian salivations… Denver 24 Dallas 20
Did anyone mention the supposed "curse" Jessica Simpson put on Romo when he dumped her? If not, I'm mentioning it now. I predict he's not even the Dallas starting QB within 3 years. Broncos 23, Cowboys 20.

San Diego (2-1) at Pittsburgh (1-2) -6.5
Pittsburgh has been disappointing to say the least. A loss to the Bears, and a stunning loss to the Bengals shows me that this is not a very good Steelers team. Troy Palomalu is hurt and so is Willie Parker, and I’m starting to question if that’s all it takes to bring the Steelers down? On the opposite side is Norv Turner, another overrated head coach who (I have to say) has done a pretty good job with the Bolts. I think Pittsburgh’s injuries catch up to them: Steelers 24 Chargers 21
That's a lot of points for a pretty underwhelming looking team to be giving a legitimate playoff contender. Chargers 26, Stealers 13.

Green Bay (2-1) at Minnesota (3-0) -3.5
This much anticipated game won’t be much of a game, and here’s why. The Vikings simply match up too well against the Packers. The weakest link on the Packers thus far has been the Offensive line. Their left guard Chad Clifton is hurt. They can’t block for Ryan Grant and they can’t protect Aaron Rogers. The Vikings have a terrific Defensive line. No one can run on them. The Packers have no one to stop them, and Aaron Rogers is in for a long night. The second weakest link on the Packers is their inability to stop the run. Here are the rushing statics against the Packers for the first three games:

Week 1 – 86 yards to the Bears (OK, not too bad)
Week 2- 151 yards to the Bengals (uh oh)
Week 3 – 149 yards to the Rams (yoiks and away)

We were joking at work this week , and I asked “How many yards you think Adrian Peterson goes for this week? 500? 600?” Honestly, I don’t think the Packers will be able to stop him. Peterson could easily go for 200 yards or more. Finally, you know Brett wants to win this game bad. That in and of itself is enough reason for me to take the Vikings. Vikings 34 Packers 20.
Don't underestimate the revenge factor. And I don't mean Favre getting revenge on the Packers. I mean the opposite. I think Rodgers finds a way to will Green Bay to a win, and Favre throws one of his patented game-killer picks late. Packers 27, Vikings 20.