Week Six

While watching several games last Sunday, Ol’ Samichlaus had an epiphany: Good teams play good and bad teams play bad. When the Giants devastated the Raiders, I thought about how “clever” my pick was: “Take the Giants! Eli is hurt! The Raiders will cover!” . Bullspit. Good teams play good and bad teams play bad. Now lets see how many times I contradict myself this week.

So the picks are a bit late again this week because I’m a slacker. And because I was in Fort Lauderdale, Florida until last night. No, not vacation. Work. And it was a rude awakening coming back last night. From sunny and 90 degrees to raining and 30 degrees. I’ll try and be better about getting these up early next week yo.

NY Giants (5-0) at New Orleans (4-0) -3.5
The battle of the unbeatens, and Ol’ Samichlaus is stumped. Sure, I thought I was soooo clever last week, figuring the Giants wouldn’t put up much against the Raiders. Christ. They put up 44 against the Raiders who mercifully have the week off. This week is going to be a lot tougher against the Saints for sure. I can’t wait to read St. Ides analysis because I’m not sure how to go. Lets say Saints win and cover. Saints 24 Giants 20

This should be a fun game to watch. I’m taking the Saints because deep down I feel that the Giants defense is slightly overrated. Look at their 5 wins: Raiders, Chiefs, Skins, Bucs, and the Cowboys. And I think the Cowboys have been exposed as average-at-best by now. That’s a combined 6 wins for their opponents – and the Skins and Cowboys have 5 of those 6. So yeah, I think the Saints are going to continue to light up the scoreboard at home. Saints 31, Giants 24.

St. Louis (0-5) at Jacksonville (2-3) -9.5
I think it was SI that had an article today where the premise was there could be 4 0-16 teams this year: Tampa, St. Louis, Kansas City and Tennessee. St. Louis is pretty pathetic, and going on the road against an up and down Jaguar team could be a trap game. Sometimes the mediocre team (Jacksonville) will play to the level of its opponent. I’m going to forgo the bait and give the points. The Rams are that bad. Jacksonville 30 St. Louis 12

I saw that article. The Jaguars looked pretty horrendous against the Seahawks last week, but it seemed as if Hasselbeck with a man on a mission now that he’s back from his cracked ribs. Kyle Boller is no Matt Hasselbeck. And the Jags should bounce back nicely at home against the worst team in the league. Jags 24, Rams 10.

Houston (2-3) at Cincinnati (4-1) -4.5
Break up the Bengals! Cincy is for real, and thank goodness. Ol’ Samichlaus spent a good part of last summer in Cincinnati and let me tell you, its one step above Cleveland. The town is famous for its chili, which is made with dark bitter chocolate and cinnamon, and the townies love it. Thank goodness for Graeters, a diabetic’s nightmare for sure, but the most amazing ice cream I ever had. Meanwhile I’ve never been to Houston, but as a former girlfriend told me a long time ago “If New Jersey is America’s armpit, then Houston is its asshole” Cincinnati 30 Houston 24

Mmmmm chilli…. Yep, I’m starting to believe in the Bengals, especially after last week’s win over the Ravens. Cedric Benson was the first back to run for over 100 yards against Baltimore in something ridiculous like 35 games. Over 2 full seasons without giving up a 100 yard rusher. That’s pretty crazy. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco seem to have turned back the clock, and this might just be a playoff team. Of course, their coach is still Marvin Lewis, so they could implode at any time. Not yet though. Maybe after Halloween. Bengals 29, Texans 24.

Cleveland (1-4) at Pittsburgh (3-2) -14.5
The Steelers made me look bad last week. Again. By only beating the Lions by 7, they showed me that the team really can’t play without Ms. Clairol, Troy Polamalu. Honestly, those commercials with him are a little gay. Who knew he had such a high voice? The line seems a bit out of line, and I’m gathering that’s because Polamalu is back, so I’m going to bite. I’ll take Cleveland and the points: Steelers 28 Browns 20
PS: St. Ides, I just noticed the spelling of “Stealers” on last week’s pick! How long have you been doing that???

I’ve been doing the Stealers thing almost every week since Super Bowl XL. It’s not a typo. The Browns are pretty frickin bad. Somehow Dereck Anderson only completed two passes last week.. And they won. I’m going with my “divisional rivalry games are usually competitive no matter how good or bad one team is” theory on this one… Even though it hasn’t worked so well this season so far. Stealers 23, Browns 10.

Carolina (1-3) at Tampa Bay (0-5) +3.5
…and here is YOUR SBS stinker. How bad is Tampa Bay? I don’t even know where to begin. I know that memory can be a bit short sighted, but if last years’ Lions played this year’s Bucs, I think the Lions would win. Tampa is so desperate that they are considering starting Rookie QB Josh Freeman (who?). Don’t be surprised if he’s playing by the third quarter. Carolina is so damn frustrating, I have no idea what to make of them. But they are better than the Bucs, a very bad football team. Take the Cats and give the points, it won’t be that close. Cats 27 Bucs 10

I believe the Bucs actually have two young QBs named Josh: Josh Johnson (who played last week) and Josh Freeman. I don’t really trust either of them to do much. The Panthers had a nice come from behind win last week. But missed covering by half a point, dammit. I’m going to say they miss covering by another half point this week too. Panthers 17, Bucs 14.

Baltimore (3-2) at Minnesota (5-0) -2.5
I won’t lie: I have a rooting interest in this game, and I’m rooting hard for the Ravens. You know, the Packers held Adrian Peterson to less than 60 yards rushing, but turnovers killed them. The Ravens are a better team than the Packers: they’re not coached by an incompetent idiot like Mike McCarthy. Plus they have an emotional leader in Ray Lewis, something else the Pack lacks. Bottom line: this is the first really decent team the Vikes have played and they’re in for a letdown. The Ravens bounce back with a win: Baltimore 30 Minnesota 27

Yeah, I agree totally with this analysis. I don’t think the Ravens lose two in a row, especially after giving up 100+ yards to Cedric Benson as I already mentioned. They’ll be stacking the box against AP. And I don’t think Favre beats them. Ravens 23, Vikings 17.

Detroit (1-4) at Green Bay (2-2) -13.5
After a bye, the Packers get some help on the O line as Chad Clifton returns and Mark Tauscher is back with the team after recovering from an ACL tear from last year. I like what I’ve heard out of Green Bay this week. The team sounds confident and fired up, and reports say that McCarthy addressed the team at midfield during Wednesday’s practice and talked about taking responsibility and playing better. Or something like that. It was out of the ordinary and the team seemed to respond. 13.5 is a lot of points, but I’m going out on a lark here. I’ll take the Packers and give the points: Green Bay 37 Detroit 17

That is a lot of points. And yes, I’m going against my “divisional games are usually close” theory I just used like a few picks ago. They missed Chad Clifton badly against the Vikes as Jared Allen had his way with the replacement. So that’s a big boost. Plus it looks like both Stafford and Calvin Johnson are still too banged up to play this week. Packers 30, Lions 10.

Kansas City (0-5) at Washington (2-3) -6.5
Washington at home against the God awful Chiefs, and all they have to do is cover 6.5? I’m in. As bad as Jason Campbell is I think he has a field day against KC, who are officially pining for the days of Herm Edwards. This one gets an honorable mention for the SBS stinker Skins 23 Chiefs 13

I’m not so convinced the Chiefs are really that bad. They’ve given the Ravens and the Cowboys both scares. I mean, they’re not a playoff team or anything. But they’re one of those bad teams that are at least somewhat competitive most games, if that makes any sense. Poor Jim Zorn. Skins 23, Chiefs 17.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Oakland (1-4) +13.5
Easy win for the Eagles against one of the worst teams I’ve ever seen. St, Ides called it last week against the Giants: The Raiders are terrible, and they proved it. Their performance against the Giants was a disgrace. Meanwhile the Eagles looked great with McNabb under center, and I see no reason to go against them, It just gets worse and worse for the Raiders: Eagles 41 Raiders 12

How Jamarcus Russell is still starting for this team I’ll never know. And I’ve seen/heard this line used at least 4 times this week, so I’m jumping on the bandwagon: the Raider’s first round pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey has more names (3) than catches (2). Eagles 37, Raiders 10.

Arizona (2-2) at Seattle (2-3) -2.5
Was Seattle a different team with Matt Hassleback running the show? You bet they were. When the Pack isn’t on TV I’ll always keep one eye on the Seahawks in honor of my partner in crime, but last week I did a double take. Seattle’s D was sick and Hassleback was terrific. Sure Arizona always plays them tough, but the Hawks are fired up… and so is the 12th man. Seattle wins and covers: Seattle 30 Arizona 24

While I’m happy and flattered you watch Seattle for me even with Holmgren gone, I’m saddened at the way you massacred the spelling of our QB’s name. It’s Hasselbeck. And yes, this is a completely different team with him under center as opposed to Seneca Wallace. And as sad as it may be for me to admit it, the pass rush and defensive line has looked better with Patrick Kerney on the sideline. They’ve been getting pressure with the front four, and Aaron Curry is starting to get the hang of this blitzing the QB thing when he’s called upon. If Seattle can get pressure on Warner without blitzing (and it seems like they should be able to), I like them to pull this one out pretty easily. Slight side note – did anyone see the pre-game ritual by Seattle fullback Owen Schmitt? That got the team psyched up. (Though the coaching staff has put a nix on it going forward.) Oh, and Schmitt’s nickname in college was “Runaway Beer Truck” so he’s a bit favorite around here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjxI9OD3h3A&feature=related
Seahawks 27, Cardinals 16.

Tennessee (0-5) at New England (3-2) -9.5
Puhleeez. This one won’t be close. New England, at home, after a tough loss to surprising Denver, look for the Patsies to come back strong. Tennessee has gone from disappointing to bad in a hurry and don’t stand a chance. New England 30 Tennessee 13

The poor Titans. I almost feel bad for Jeff Fisher. Then I remember how he was on the competition committee with Holmgren and often disagreed with him about certain rules and calls that seemed obviously wrong. Pats 27, Titans 16.

Buffalo (1-4) at NY Jets (3-2) -9.5
Dirty Sanchez and the boys come off a tough loss against the Dolphins… and yes, Ol’ Samichlaus didn’t see that one coming either kids. Up in Buffalo, things are coming unglued faster than a homemade bird feeder in a spring thaw. OK, you have to see my backyard to understand that one. See, Mrs Samichlaus and I one year bought a whole bunch of bird feeder kits from the local arts and crafts store, and Mrs Samichlaus glued them all together and painted them really pretty, and we hung them along the back fence. So they go through summer pretty much OK, but then the winter really takes a toll on them. So one day I’m out back Doing my first mow of the spring when all of a sudden…. Huh? The pick? OH! Sorry. Jets 30 Bills 17

And that’s why the spread was so low. Vegas knows what they’re doing. In my pool, 29 people took the Jets, the most popular pick of the day. 3 people took the Dolphins. So yeah, when a spread is surprisingly low, there’s probably a reason. (The second most popular pick were the damn Panthers, with 28 people taking them, including me. Only 1 person took the Skins.) The Bills are much worse than I thought they’d be, and TO looks done. Jets 26, Bills 10.

Chicago (3-1) at Atlanta (3-1) -3.5
Great test for the upstart Bears as Rick, err, Jay Cutler takes the show on the road. I like Atlanta in this game for several reasons. First, they’re at home. OK, that’s all I’ve got. It’s late. Samichlaus needs to get some sleep. What? There’s one more pick? Oh, fuck a moose. Atlanta 20 Chicago 15

The Falcons dismantled the Niners in San Fran. I like their offense. A lot. I don’t like their defense that much, but give them home field and the fact Cutler is about due to have a stinker, and I like Atlanta. Rick Cutler.. Why does that sound familiar? Wasn’t he a sales guy or something at Datalan? I can’t picture him though… Falcons 26, Bears 20.

Denver (5-0) at San Diego (2-2) -3.5
Here’s where it ends for Denver. Monday night under the lights, and the pressure is finally going to get to the Broncos. Sure they are a great home team, but traditionally they are never ever a good bet on the road. They go in as dogs, but I think it’s not even that close. I like the Bolts by 10: San Diego 24 Denver 14

Yeah, given the records and how both have played, this is one of those lines that Vegas sets to suck you in to picking Denver.. And then the bookmakers laugh all the way to the bank as the Chargers destroy them. Kyle Orton has played well so far since the regular season has started after looking awful in the pre-season. The Broncos’ crash to earth begins here. Chargers 30, Broncos 20.