Week 4 Picks Yo!

Well kids, one of us is going to tally up our picks this week… One thing that worked out better than expected was the early bye for the Packers. With the team reeling and the O line sucking like one of those Dyson vacuums, the Pack needs to regroup and “clean up” all the issues (to use a little coach speak). Truth be told, it’s going to take a little more than a “clean up” to fix their woes. I read they brought in Mark Tauscher for a workout, and want to sign him, but here it is Thursday night and he isn’t signed. I’ll bet Tightwad Ted doesn’t pull the trigger, and Tauscher goes to the Chiefs…

Got some scoreboard catching up to do:
Week 3:
St. Ides: 10-6
Samichlaus: 11-5

Week 4:
St. Ides: 7-7
Samichlaus: 9-5

Total:
Samichlaus: 36-26
St. Ides: 33-29

Oakland (1-3) at NY Giants (4-0) -15.5
After a promising start the first week of the season, the Oakland Raiders have come crashing back into the cesspool and are fighting for the title of worst team in the NFL. But the spread seems a bit high and here’s why: whether the Giants start Eli Manning or the very pretty David Carr, the game plan will be conservative. Lots of running and not a lot of passing, Sure the Giants win, but in a low scoring game. Giants 24 Raiders 10

I’m tempted to take the points, especially with David Carr in there… But how frickin bad is Jamarcus Russell? He’s pretty horrible. I suspect the Raiders offense will likely do next to nothing against this Giants D, and in a rare move, I’ll lay the double-digit points this time. Giants 24, Raiders 6.

Dallas (2-2) at Kansas City (0-4) +8.5
Dallas gets back to winning and winning easy this week. Sure, they’re not as good as they’re hyped up to be, but Kansas City is a joke. Even at home. Of course what if the Cowboys lose? I’d love to hear that “Wade Phillips has my complete confidence” news conference Jerry Jones will have to give. If that happens, Ol’ Samichlaus predicts he’ll be gone by week 10. But don’t worry Cowboy fans: you get an easy pass this week. Cowboys 30 Kansas City 10

I’ve lost all faith in Tony Romo and the Cowboys. There’s speculation he didn’t even realize it was 4th down last week on their final play of the game, as he was seen screaming at the referee holding up 3 fingers as if to say “That was only 3rd down!!!” Seems he forgot that he’d spiked the ball to stop the clock. So yeah, that Jessica Simpson curse may be working after all. I’ll take the points. Cowboys 23, Chiefs 20.

Minnesota (4-0) at St. Louis (0-4) +10.5
St. Louis is a pretty bad team, and I guess we all know by now the Vikings are a pretty good team. It’s a lot of points to give after a tough Monday night game, and Brett Favre has never played well in St. Louis, but I think it’s all a red herring, Minnesota cruises: Vikings 34 Rams 17

I hate the Vikings. The one bright spot so far for the Rams has been they’ve had some decent play from their young defense. Don’t let the scoreboard fool you, a lot of those points they’re giving up are touchdowns scored by the opponents’ defense or special teams. This is a trap game if I’ve ever seen one… Vikes pull it out, but barely. Vikings 23, Rams 17.

Washington (2-2) at Carolina (0-3) -3.5
OK, this is the week that the Panthers finally get a win. Washington play 30 good minutes of football last week and that was enough to beat the Bucs, but that won’t be enough to beat the Cats. The Panthers will look like a different team against the JV. Take the Cats and the points: Panthers 26 Redskins 13

How bad are the frickin Redskins? The Panthers had a nice early bye week and maybe that’s enough for them to get their poop together. Jake Delhomme is still on fairly thin ice, but they should be okay this week at home against a fading Skins team. Panthers 23, Skins 17.

Tampa Bay (0-4) at Philadelphia (2-1) -13.5
This one won’t be close. Westbrook is playing and so is McNabb, though here we go again with Donovan playing hurt. He’s too tough for his own good. But Philly’s D is going hold Tampa at, err, bay while the offense does more than enough to win. Fantasy players: start the Eagles D. Philadelphia 27 Tampa Bay 6

Man, there are some big spreads this week. It looks like both McNabb and Hasselbeck are going to try and play this week with their respective rib injuries. But reports say McNabb’s was worse, in that the rib actually sort of broke all the way through. Which meant they were afraid to shoot him up with pain killers because if the displaced rib punctured his lung, he wouldn’t feel it. Yikes. I don’t think he makes it through this game, and I’ll take the points. Eagles 24, Bucs 13.

Pittsburgh (2-2) at Detroit (1-3) +10.5
Pittsburgh made a nice statement last week and should have little trouble against the Lions. Did anyone see the second half of Detroit – Chicago? The Lions quit after the first 30 minutes against an improving Bears team, and that told me something: they have no heart. I like Pittsburg giving the points: Steelers 37 Lions 20.

I had the Lions last week in my money pool, and I was looking good for awhile. Then Stafford got hurt, and we saw Daunte Culpepper enter the game. And that “keeping it close” quickly became “there goes my first place position.” Still, the Stealers aren’t all that and I think they can struggle on the road this season, especially since they’ve had some difficulty establishing a consistent running game. Stealers 26, Lions 20.

Cleveland (0-4) at Buffalo (1-3) -5.5
Don’t you just love those shots of T.O. sitting on the sidelines looking all pissed off and stuff? I know, Ol’ Samichlaus’s empathy for Mr. Owens lasted all of one week. This week the Bills should have an easy win. Yes, Derek Anderson is playing QB for the Browns, and yes they look much improved, but the Bills are ready to win. Things are weird up in Buffalo.... Bills 28 Browns 20

I think the Browns didn’t get nearly enough for Braylon Edwards. A decent WR, a special teamer, a 3rd and 5th? Keep in mind the Lions got two 1st rounders for Roy Williams. TWO! And their career numbers are almost identical (with neither of them really having a good QB throwing to them for any extended length of time.) I have no idea what the story with T.O. is.. Is he not getting open? Has age finally caught up with him and caused him to lose a step? Is Trent Edwards just not looking for him? It seems silly to have gone out and risk picking up a potentially divisive personality like Owens and then not use him. Bills 26, Browns 16.

Cincinnati (3-1) at Baltimore (3-1) -8.5
Cincinnati gets derailed this week against the Ravens, who are out to get back on track after losing to the referees, err, the Patriots last week in Foxboro. I’ll admit that the Bengals are better than I thought they’d be and may keep this game surprisingly close, but I’m banking that the Ravens will be fired up enough after last week to win by 10. Ravens 23 Bengals 13

Might the Bengals be for real? Did I mention they’re one wacky tipped pass fluke TD away from being 4-0 right now? Divisional clash, I think I’ll take those points. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco have turned back the clock. Ravens 24, Bengals 20.

Atlanta (2-1) at San Francisco (3-1) -2.5
Well well well. Holdout Michael Crabtree finally signed… I can’t wait to see him get hit a few times. The good news is the 49ers apparently held their ground and paid exactly what they wanted for this prima donna’s services. Now don’t get me wrong, Ol’ Samichlaus is a friend of the working man, but in tough economic times I have very little sympathy for a guy who balks at 32 million because he’s looking for 38 million. Crabtree notwithstanding, I like the Niners in this game. Not a lot of in depth analysis here, just a gut feeling. Niners 20 Falcons 17

I’m selling on the Falcons after taking them in New England two weeks ago and them letting me down. On the radio this morning, some talking head was saying how Atlanta is an undersized defense, and this makes it harder for them on the road where they don’t have crowd noise giving them an advantage getting off on the snap. I’m not sure how true it is, but it sounded like the guy knew what he was talking about. The X-factor is still Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez though. I’m convinced they can be good enough on any given Sunday to beat most teams. I really need the Niners to lose to Seattle can claw their way back into the playoff hunt… So let’s not forget their QB is some dude named Shaun Hill who is about due to cost them a game. Falcons 26, Niners 23.

New England (3-1) at Denver (4-0) +3.5
Samichlaus is no fool. New England is back and they’re ready to take it to Denver. As I predicted, New England continues to improve, but even Ol’ Samichlaus has to admit he didn’t see it happening this fast. Now, everyone knows I love Denver at home, but three and a half isn’t enough for me to take the bait. I’ll go with the Pats: Patriots 30 Denver 26

The spread says it all – Vegas ain’t buying into Denver’s 4-0 record (including that aforementioned fluke TD against the Bengals, and victories over the horrendous Browns and Raiders). And neither am I. The reports of the Patriots’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. Well, maybe not that greatly. I still think their defense is quite vulnerable. But their offense and Tom Brady should be okay. Pats 27, Broncos 20.

Houston (2-2) at Arizona (1-2) -5.5
Arizona is coming off a bye, and I like their chances this week at home. I said they would win four games this year, right? Let’s give ‘em this one only because they are coming off said bye. By the way kids, Virginia Cavalier standout Matt Schaub is one of the most accurate passers in the league with a career percentage of 66.2%. We love the Cavs at the Samichlaus household: UVA believes in education first, football second, as opposed to Virginia Tech where in English class they teach the students that at the end of a sentence you make an appeal. OK, it’s an old Rodney Dangerfield joke. Cardinals 30 Texans 23

Hahaha, that’s a good one! With Jeff Garcia unsigned, we need other sources of humor, and what better than some old school Rodney! I’m all over Houston in this one. Warner has looked pretty old and beat up, and the Texans offense has looked pretty good since the Jets throttled them in Week One. Watch Andre Johnson outplay Larry Fitzgerald and the Super Bowl Loser Curse to continue as the Cardinals fall deeper into their hole. Texans 27, Cardinals 20.

Jacksonville (2-2) at Seattle (1-3) -1.5
Call me crazy but I’m taking the Seahawks. Matt Hassleback is back under the saddle, and although Walter Jones is still out I’m betting that Hassleback will make the difference. The Jaguars are an attractive pick, but they’re all over the map this year. Add the crowd, the west coast time change, and Jacksonville comes up short. Seahawks 27 Jaguars 24

I’m busting out the reverse jinx for the first time this year. Yes, it looks like Hasselbeck will play. And yes, Seneca Wallace was single-handedly responsible for losing the Bears game (okay, maybe not single-handedly, Olindo Mare could have hit those two field goals he missed) and made some mistakes early in the Colts game to let it slip away quickly. I’ve been on some Seahawks boards where people insist that Wallace has the talent to be a starting QB in this league. While he’s extremely athletic, he just doesn’t have a very high football IQ. The Colts were able to put 8 guys in the box all game last week because Seneca is totally inaccurate beyond 10 yards. And they brought the heat during obvious passing plays. Hasselbeck has the intelligence and the freedom to audible at the line, something I’m sure Wallace is unable to do. A couple draw plays, a couple screen passes, a couple shots down the field, and guess what, there’s suddenly not 8 in the box any more. Anyways, yeah, Hasselbeck and Wallace is like night and day. All that said, their offensive line and defense are still banged up, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maurice Jones-Drew run all over them. Jaguars 27, Seahawks 24.

Indianapolis (4-0) at Tennessee (0-4) +3.5
This line has got to be a misprint. But I’ll tell you what: 3.5 or 13.5, it wouldn’t make a difference. Indy is going to walk all over the Titans. Peyton Manning has played as well as I’ve ever seen him play, and that’s saying something. Consider that he’s doing it all with pedestrian receivers. I’m taking the Colts, no questions asked. Colts 38 Titans 10

I think that line is taking into consideration that this is a divisional rivalry that is usually a pretty close game. And you know what, I’m buying it. The Titans are not as bad as their 0-4 record indicates, and Chris Johnson is due for another huge game. I’ll take the points. Colts 27, Titans 26.

NY Jets (3-1) at Miami (1-3) +1.5
The NFL Network is showing that Jets – Miami game on “Greatest 4th Quarters”, the one where Vinny goes nuts and throws for over 200 yards in the quarter and rallies the Jets who were down something like 30 – 0. It’s a reminder of something my Father in Law always says. No matter how good the Dolphins are and no matter how bad the Jets are, the Jets always seem to beat the Fins. This year, the Jets are good and the Dolphins are running a college offense. The Jets win and cover: Jets 29 Fins 27

This spread seems a bit low. I mean, just because the Dolphins destroyed the Bills last week doesn’t mean they’re suddenly a contender. I like Chad Henne, but I think Rex Ryan has some surprises in store for him and he struggles a lot. Meanwhile, let’s see what Dirty Sanchez can do with his new offensive weapon Braylon Edwards. That’s a pretty important addition to the Jets, and he may just be the piece they need to overtake the Pats to claim the division. Jets 26, Fins 17.