Zomg, Happy Halloween! I can't wait to see the crazy costumes all those wacky fans come up with this weekend.
Hey kids, Samichlaus here! Happy Sunday to our readers, and yes, Ol Samichlaus had a heck of a week. In my other secret identity as a computer geek, a great project shut its doors and I've been celebrating with my co-workers. Oh, and working my buns off as well. What ever alone time I had was spent prepping for band practice, which is a story for another day on another blog. Let's just say for now that I can still rock the house.
Denver (6-0) at Baltimore (3-3) -3.5
I keep doubting Denver, and they keep proving me wrong. And I keep having faith in the Ravens, and they keep proving me wrong too. Well, not this time! Somehow the Denver defense has been excellent, and Kyle Orton has resembled an NFL QB. Shocking, I know. The Ravens defense is finally starting to show some signs of age. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are no spring chickens any more. I'll say the Ravens win on a late field goal, but don't cover. Ravens 24, Broncos 23.
This is going to be Denver's toughest test yet: and I like the Ravens to win. I like them for two reasons: first, they have been decidedly mediocre this year. They can't seem to get to the next level as they beat up on the lesser teams but fail to rise to the occasion against the good teams. Second, I always like them at home. The do play well in front of their fellow, uhh, Baltimorons? Whatever... I think this is make or break for the Ravens so the rule of the more desperate team applies: Balitmore 27 Denver 20
Seattle (2-4) at Dallas (4-2) -9.5
Walter Jones - Done for the season. Lofa Tatupu - Done for the season. Seahawks - Done for the season. Well, maybe I'm jumping the gun slightly, but after they lose this week, 2-5 will be hard to recover from. The Cowboys showed me something against the Falcons last week. But not a whole lot. The key here will be Demarcus Ware will be going up against the 5th starting LT Seattle has started this season, a dude they just signed off the scrap heap after he was cut by the Chiefs. So yeah, Hasselbeck will probably be running for his life all game. The only positives I can see is that maybe Julius Jones plays inspired against his old team, and Seattle is getting back Marcus Trufant and Leroy Hill on defense. I'm tempted to take the points, because my heart says, "Seattle is still a decent team," but my head says, "Wow, they suck." Cowboys 27, Seahawks 17.
I hate to agree with you on this one, but I see it the same way. This is two seasons in a row now where the injury bug has taken its toll on Seattle. The Cowboys got a big win last week and I think that bolsters them at home. Seattle will hang for a while but ultimately the Cowboys will out them away with relative ease. Here's to the double reverse jinx: Cowboys 34 Seahawks 23
Cleveland (1-6) at Chicago (3-3) -13.5
That's a lot of points. Remember what I wrote recently about "so much for parity" in the NFL? Well, I saw at least 3 articles this week by "professional" writers along the same lines. Can I sue for plagiarism? One of them was paritcularly interesting. Last week had the biggest average margin of victory in the NFL since 1970. Even with these huge spreads, teams are covering. There were SIX games last week that were decided by 28 points or more. Six of the thirteen games on the schedule were won by 4 TDs or more. That's really pretty insane. So people laying all these points are still winning their bets. Vegas needs to start bumping these spreads up to the 20-24 point range or they're going to get killed before the season ends. Anyways, back to this particular game... Browns suck. I'm laying the huge points hoping the blowout trend continues. Bears 27, Browns 10.
Who's the QB for Cleveland this week? Not that it matters. On the road against a darn good Bears team and this one is a no brainer. The only way this game is decided by less than 2 TDs is if the Bears don't take it seriously, and I don't think that Lovie Smith will let that happen. As a Packers fan I hate to admit this but Lovie Smith can flat out coach. BTW, did you know that Lovie was named after his great aunt Lovana? Thank goodness my family didn't hold that tradition, lest Ol' Samichlaus might have been known as "Viola" or "Jessupina". Yikes. Bears 34 Browns 10
St. Louis (0-7) at Detroit (1-5) -4.5
This is probably the Rams best chance this season to get a win. Well, it is on the road, so maybe not. Okay, I won't be lazy, let me go check the schedule, one moment please. They've got Seattle and San Fran at home, and at Tennessee as the only possibly winnable games. So yeah, this is probably their best bet. And it looks like Stafford is still out. So yeah, why not, let's say the Rams are going to win their first of the year. Rams 24, Lions 23.
I'm going the other way. Not sure why, especially if Stafford is out, but I have a feeling about Detroit. They usually keep it close, and have tasted victory once before. Plus they're at home, though I know we're going dome against dome here. St. Louis on the other hand has been consistantly awful. Maybe they pull it out? I don't know... stop making be think about this game any longer. Detroit 20 St. Louis 10
San Francisco (3-3) at Indianapolis (6-0) -12.5
I bet against the Niners last week versus Houston, and I looked like a genius as the Texans roared out to a big lead by halftime. Then something odd happened. The Niners brought former #1 overall pick Alex Smith off the bench and he almost led them to a comeback. This week he gets the start in Indy. And I predict he shows us why he was benched in the first place. Alex Smith, meet Dwight Freeney. As usual, Manning lights things up. Colts 34, Niners 17.
That so funny! I swear I'm not making this up: when the Texans were up 24 - 0 I was sitting on my couch going "Jeez, St. Ides looks like a friggin' genius on this one". The Colts have been absolutely sick this year. They're beating teams by two TDs every week. I'm going to be a contrarian here: I'm going to take the points. At some point this trend has to change: thats what my Heuristically Programmed Algoritmic Computer, series 9000 computer tells me, and as we know the HAL 9000 has never made a mistake. Colts 37 Niners 27
Houston (4-3) at Buffalo (3-4) +3.5
I like the Texans. I especially like them because I have Matt Schaub on my fantasy team and he's been awesome. The Bills have shown some life lately.. I'm shocked to see they're actually 3-4.. I should check the weather in Buffalo, but I've used up my research time checking the Rams schedule. Assuming it's not a blizzard, I like Houston's offense to continue to roll.. PS - Has anyone seen TO lately? Texans 27, Bills 20.
Matt Schabb once again proves that the superior institution of higher learning here in the Old Dominion is the University of Virginia. Sure, the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Athletic Penetentary might be nationally ranked, but when was the last time you heard of a UVA student athlete getting involved in a felony? Anyway, back to football: I like the Texans too. The Bills can be tough at home, but to take my partners analysis one step further, today is going to be sunny and 45 at kickoff. In other words ain't nothing going to stop the Texans. Houston 30 Buffalo 17
Miami (2-4) at NY Jets (4-3) -3.5
I can't figure out either of these teams. The Dolphins came incredibly close to beating the Colts on MNF early in the season, and had a big lead against the Saints last week before letting it slip away. Dirty Sanchez went from the next Joe Namath to just another rookie QB making mistakes and throwing a bunch of picks. And now Jets linebacker Bartt Scott has said he wants to go out there and hurt Chad Henne. Hey, don't mess with the Wolverines! (Speaking of which, did you know they're remaking the movie Red Dawn? I know Samichlaus knew, since he sent me the link, but I'm talking to our readers... Hello out there?) Anyways, I'm taking the fish. Dolphins 26, Jets 20.
Red Dawn! That great paragon of second amendment rights! Here's a little advice for St. Ides: go rent "Wolverine: X Men Origins". It will make you an Ohio State fan. I like the Jets in this game, and pretty much for the same reasons I liked them last time. Of course I was wrong last time, but this week Rex Ryan has an answer for the Wildcat. The Jets at home will stop Miami and win by 10. Jets 27 Finned Marine Mammals 17
NY Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-2) -3.5
Oh how the Giants disappointed me last week by not crushing the Cardinals. They've now given up 72 points in their last 2 games. Not exactly the dominant defense people associate them with. The Eagles took care of business against the Skins last week and can actually pull into 1st place in the NFC East with a win. I still don't trust McNabb a whole lot, and it looks like Westbrook is out, so let's say the Giants bounce back and hold onto first place. Oh, and this New York at Philly game will be followed by another New York at Philly game just a few hours later. (The World Series.. you might have heard of it?) Giants 24, Eagles 17.
Now now, you know Samichlaus is a Mets fan. Why oh why did you have to bring up that baseball game. This is the first World Series I can remember where every morining I look at the headlines and say either "Damn, the Phillies won" or "Damn, the Yankees won". Meanwhile, I'm going to go Eagles this week. The Giants D has been less than pedestrian lately and Philadelphia is a tough team. Speaking of "has any one heard from...", what's become of Michael Vick? He lost more than a step... Eagles 30 Giants 24
World Series tangent... I was going to make this its own post, but fuck it. I liked the Yankees going in, but
watching Cliff Lee pitch lights out and seeing that Philly lineup close up and personal scares me. That dude Chase Utley has GOT to be juicing, right? He doesn't look that big, yet he's jacking homers like that? Okay, so I lied, I'm going to look up something else this article.. Okay, says here he's 6'1" 192... I guess that's slightly above average for a 2nd baseman. Still, 31 home runs this year? For comparison, his teammate Ryan Howard is 6'4" 255, Mark Texeira is 6'3" 220, and A-Rod is 6'3" 228. Anyways, if the Yankees are going to win, they better win the games Cliff Lee isn't pitching. Because that dude looks unhittable.
One more thing... I'm pretty excited about the NY Rangers this year because they have a legit offensice superstar in Marian Gaborik. I noticed a trend after watching both the Rangers and Yankees lose the other night.. Since the postseason started, when they both play on the same night, they've both done the same thing: All 3 of the Yankee postseason losses have come right after a Ranger loss.
Oct 11
W - Rangers 3, Maple Leafs 0
W - Yankees 4, Twins 1
Oct 17
W - Rangers 4, Maple Leafs 1
W - Yankees 4, Angels 3
Oct 19
L - Sharks 7, Rangers 3
L - Angels 5, Yankees 4
Oct 22
L - Canadiens 5, Rangers 4
L - Angels 7, Yankees 6
Oct 28
L - Islanders 3, Rangers 1
L - Phillies 6, Yankees 1
Nov 1
Yankees @ Phillies - Game 4
Bruins @ Rangers
Nov 5
Phillies @ Yankees - Game 7
Rangers @ Oilers
Great stuff! Where else can you get this kind of analysis?
Jacksonville (3-3) at Tennessee (0-6) -3.5
Maurice Jones-Drew said this week that he believes the Jaguars are the best team in the league. He may be smoking some crack, but I think they can probably beat the struggling Titans, now being helmed by Vince Young. Jaguars 23, Titans 20.
I'm surprised the spread is only 3.5 here, I like the Jags, who much like the Ravens need a win to push them to the next level. I also like Vince Young, but to rely on him to win his first week as a starter is not realistic. young can bring a new dimension to the Titan's offense, but he's going to need time. The Jags should win and cover, even in the Titan's back yard. Jacksonville 27 Tennessee 20
Oakland (2-5) at San Diego (3-3) -16.5
You know.. I want to take those points.. I really do... Somehow the Raiders actually have two wins.. This is a divisional rivarly game.. The Chargers have looked underwhelming all season.. I'm trying to talk myself into taking the points. Okay, I'll do it. Chargers 27, Raiders 14.
I was totally suckered by the Raiders against the Jets. I made a fool of myself in the eyes of our loyal readers, and have flogged myself accordingly. This week at San Diego I'm not going to make the same mistake. Sure the Bolts have looked underwhealming, but so did the Jets until they played the Raiders. This week they'll look like world beaters San Diego 41 Raiders 14
Minnesota (6-1) at Green Bay (4-2) -3.5
Oh boy, here we go. The return of Favre to Green Bay. I'll leave the emotional evaluation to my colleague. I'll just say that I think that the Packers players really want to beat him badly. And I think that despite the "It's just another game" facade that Favre is putting on, he'll be rattled when he gets booed by people who previously worshipped him like a saint. (He is going to get booed, right? Please tell me they'll boo him.) Hopefully the Packers D can contain Peterson, as that's still the key to beating the Vikings. And hopefully this time someone will block Jarred Allen. Holy crap, for the love of God, give the OT some help with this monster! Jeez. Anyways, this should be a pretty good game, and I think the Packers will pull it out. Packers 24, Vikings 20.
There are four schools of thought in booing Favre. According to a poll taken by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, about 40% of the fans want to boo the ever living Christ out of him. About 20 % want to cheer him first (out of respect) then boo the ever living Christ out of him, and the remaining 20 % are split between cheer him and give him the silent treatment. I fall into the second catagory of cheer first and boo going forward. (official aside: I just re-read what I wrote and realized how absurd this is. Have I really spent that much time wondering what the proper reaction to Brett Favre should be?) Now, back to the game. The last time they played the Pack had a smart defensive plan: stop Adrian Peterson. What they couldn't do was stop Brett, and a lot of that had to do with their banged up secondary. Since the secondary was banged up, they couldn't blitz, so Favre had all day to throw. This week the D is healty and playing a lot better than they were on October 5th. That said, no matter how well the D is playing you can't win if you give up 8 sacks. Rookie T.J. Lang gets the start against Jared Allen, and all I can say is may God save his soul. I'm going for the Packers to win and cover, as Favre throws a pick to end a potential game tying drive in the last minute of play: Green Bay 27 Minnesota 20
Carolina (2-4) at Arizona (4-2) -9.5
The Panthers are brutal. People keep waiting for Jake Delhomme to be benched, but they really have no better option. Their current backup QBs are better suited to this new UFL league. I wish the Cardinals would lose a few gimmes so Seattle still hung around in the divisional race, but I don't see it happening against Carolina. Cardinals 31, Panthers 20.
Usually I save these sort of comments for my beautful wife, but for what it's worth... I was wrong. The Cards showed me something agains the Giants and Kurt Warner has been lights out. St. Ides is dead on about Jake Delhomme, and that's sad: Delhomme is a shadow of the mediocre QB he always was, and the Cats have no better alternative. Take the Cards and the points. Cardinals 34 Panthers 20
Atlanta (4-2) at New Orleans (6-0) -9.5
I almost regretted it last week as the Dolphins jumped out to a big lead early, but then Drew Brees and co came roaring back. I'm sticking with it. Take the Saints til they lose. Saints 38, Falcons 27.
Agreed. I'm riding the Saints until someone, anyone can show me that they can cover against them. I like Atlanta, but they're not in the same class as New Orleans. Right now, with the possible exception of the Colts, no one is. New Orleans 37 Atlanta 24
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