Week 14 Pick! (Sub-.500 Temperatures...Samichlaus's "picks" now available)

Cutting it a bit close on the Thursday's night game, but here goes...

It's Saturday morning and today is the day of the office holiday extravaganza where they're serving barbeque. Welcome to the south, where the confederate flag still flies from the back of pickup trucks and the difference between a good meal and a great meal is determined by what type of sauce you slather on the pig you've slaughtered and smoked. Well at least where I work. But enough about me, let's get to another week of lousy picks courtesy of Ol' Samichlaus who if he had half a brain would simply just trust St. Ides's judgement and agree with his analysis...

Last Week
St. Ides: 8-8
Samichlaus: 5-10

Season:
Samichlaus: 70-75 (.483)
St. Ides: 72-90 (.444)

Browns +7.5 over STEELERS
No Troy Polamalu. No Hines Ward. Big Ben stinks. And the Super Bowl Loser curse is still in full effect on the Steelers. (Except some bribery of the commish and some referee mularky still gave them the trophy. But I'm not bitter. ) Browns 23, Steelers 20.

Pass. I'm late again. Luv ya bye bye.

CHIEFS -2.5 over Ravens
The Ravens were exposed a bit by the Bengals last week. The Chiefs are good at home and really need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a horrendous loss to the Browns last week. A steady does of LJ ought to be enough. Meanwhile, watch McNair begin to fold down the stretch. Chiefs 24, Ravens 20.

I always like the Chiefs at home. This week they are the more desperate team, as Baltimore sits atop their division with a two game lead. Take the Chiefs this week, but don't bet against Baltimore next week. Chiefs 17 Ravens 13

Titans +1.5 over TEXANS
The Titans are now 6-5 with Vince Young as the starter. They just finished beating the Manning brothers in back-to-back weeks. I think they're on a roll. Meanwhile, the David Carr Era may be nearing an end in Houston. Titans 26, Texans 16.

This might actually be a fun game to watch. David Carr is playing for his career while Vince Young is returning to Texas. I like the Titans as well: in a close game Young will be the difference maker. Titans 24 Texans 21

JAGUARS +1.5 over Colts
The Colts SHOULD win this game after losing last week. But guess what: teams now know they can run on them for about 600 yards a game. Which does two things: A) Moves the ball and creates some offense and points to keep up with the Indy scoring and, more importantly, B) grinds the clock and keeps the potent Indy offense off the field. Jags should be good enough to repeat the formula with their playoff life on the line. Jaguars 27, Colts 24.

Tough call: Jags are the more desperate team in a super tight wild card race. Indy is coming off a loss, and Tony Dungy should figure out a way to correct the defensive issues. Jags are at home. Indy can't lose two in a row, can they? I'll take the Colts: Indy 31 Jacksonville 24

DOLPHINS +3.5 over Patriots
I haven't watched too much Patriots action the past couple weeks, but from what Anonymous says and the boxscore shows, they need to stop turning the ball over and playing better overall football if they expect to win any playoff games. I'll take the home team and the points until the Patriots show that they've regained a bit of that championship form. Dolphins 20, Patriots 17.

If I've learned anything over the last 3 weeks, its that New England and the Jets aren't these world beating teams. It's that Green Bay stinks. Anyway, Anonymous is the expert on these matters and he doesn't like what he sees in New England. Meanwhile Miami seemed to turn it around under Joey Harrington until last week. My guess is New England will get to Harrington, and if you get to Harrington he goes all Jim Everett on you. New England 27 Miami 17

BENGALS -10.5 over Raiders
I don't bet on the Raiders at this point, against anyone, no matter the points. Still waiting to hear from Samichlaus that he updated his QB Rankings, but I suspect Aaron Brooks will be near the bottom. Bengals 25, Raiders 13.

Oh shitty! I forgot about that... I can work on that tomorrow... Meanwhile, the Bengals are reeady to make a statement. They too are in the midst of a wildcard malay, so I'm looking for a big game out of them. Bengals 37 Raiders 10.

Giants +3.5 over PANTHERS
Both these teams are in pretty bad shape after last week. Giants lost to the Cowboys at home (and pretty much lost the NFC East in the process). Panthers lost to Jeff Garcia. Jake Delhomme has looked awful. He's banged up though, and might not even play this week. Giving way to.... wait for it.. wait for it... Weinke. I forget his first name, Chris is it? Anyways, his record as a starter is something like 1-8. Not sure what's worse, his record, or the fact some team actually let him start 9 games. Anyways, provided Eli doesn't have a complete meltdown and the Giants don't turn into a complete mutiny, I'll pick against Weinke. Giants 20, Panthers 17.

Did I ever tell you about the time Mike Vick's mother got into a fist fight with Chris Weinke's family at a bowl game? Great family. The question of the week is: has Tom Coughlin lost this team? The Giants are a mess, but the Cats aren't much better. John Fox used to be the brilliant up and comer but what's the guy done lately? I'll agree... the G-men turn it around and win. Giants 27 Cats 20

Eagles +0.5 over REDSKINS
Holy poop! It's Jeff Garcia leading the team to a win! I couldn't bring myself to watch the whole game, but from what I saw, he actually looked halfway decent. At the very least, he pumped some hope into a deflated Eagles team, and they're alive for the playoffs. I'll take Garcia and the Eagles D over the inexperienced Skins QB. Eagles 24, Skins 20.

Jeff Garcia pumping anything is a poorly chosen metaphore, eh? Lets see... Skins at home, at 4 -8. Eagles at 6 - 6 and still in the wildcard hunt. Eagles are the more desperate team. I'll take the Eagles for the win: Philly 20 Skins 17

LIONS -2.5 over Vikings
The Vikings SHOULD have lost to the Lions in Minnesota earlier this season. A couple bad turnovers let the Vikings defense score and pull out the win from behind. Since then, the Vikings have gotten worse. Their receivers drop balls. Brad Johnson was benched at halftime last week (for Brooks Bollinger). Their running back is banged up. This one has Lions win written all over it. Lions 20, Vikings 17.

Detroit is duking it out for that first pick in the draft with the Raiders. The Raiders are going to lose this week so I'm guessing that the Lions will lose too. But Brooks Bollinger? Can we be looking at the SBS stinker of the week? We'll get to that in a bit. Vikings 27 Detroit 17.

Falcons -3.5 over BUCANNEERS
Oh look! The Falcons won a game! They're back in the playoff hunt! People are believing in Ron Mexico again! That's okay, I wouldn't mind the Falcons making the playoffs. They scare nobody. If they lose this game, Mora Jr. could very well be gone this offseason. Or Vick even. One or the other. Here's the real question though: When do the Falcons finally give up on Vick? Probably not until it's too late. Trade his ass now while he still has some value. Falcons 26, Bucs 17.

..and replace the Hokie Vick with the UVA Cavalier Matt Schaub. Now there's a kid with a great family. And this one knows how to throw a pass. Anyway, enough Vick bashing for a week. I think Atlanta plays well this week, and still loses. I like Chucky's Buckys: Bucs 20 Atlanta 17

NINERS -4.5 over Packers
Okay, maybe I gave the Packers too much credit against Seattle, and had too much faith in them last week against the Jets. They got smoked. At home. By a middle-of-the-pack team. Ouch. I'll let Samichlaus dissect them further, but as much as I'd love for them to win this week (a Seattle win and San Fran loss clinches the NFC West for the Seahawks), I don't see it happening. Frank Gore runs for about a buck ninety. Niners 30, Packers 17.

Oh can I dissect them, really? While they're still alive? So they can feel the pain of organ evisceraton? Let me quote Mrs. Samichlaus who has begun to repeat her mantra from the end of the 2004 season. "ALL DEFENSIVE COACHES MUST BE FIRED..." Now, keep repeating that over and over kids because that's problem number one. This week Mike McCarthy said that when he watched the film he was convinced that his players hadn't quit on him. He said they were giving great effort but were out of position (ALL DEFENSIVE COACHES MUST BE FIRED) and that sometimes they were leaving their assigments to try to make plays. BTW coach, players tend to do that when they've given up on the system (ALL DEFENSIVE COACHES MUST BE FIRED) so if they haven't given up on you they have given up on your defensive coordinator's game plan (ALL DEFENSIVE COACHES MUST BE FIRED). Meanwhile, our O line is banged up and has not been protecting Favre. Our receivers can't get open down field, our tight end is as dumb as a kumquat, our running back has asthma and can't seem to stay on the field between the 40's . Sad to say, this should be an easy win for the Niners... and sad to say this is my nominee for the SBS Stinker of the week. San Fran 37 Green Bay 24.

Seahawks -3.5 over CARDINALS
Seattle didn't look great last week, but a win in Denver is always tough to get. Seattle still hasn't really clicked on offense or defense consistently, yet they're winning games and are 8-4. They're 5-0 in games where they have both Alexander and Hasselbeck. Let's hope that the loss in San Fran about a month ago prevents them from taking this game lightly, and it's a good game to get both sides of the ball going. The big Cardinals receivers worry me a bit, but Seattle should be able to pressure Leinart and have played better in the secondary lately. They need this game if they want to keep pace for the #2 seed (and a bye) in the NFC. Seahawks 27, Cardinals 20.

Green Bay 31 Cardinals 14. Don't worry. Seattle hasn't clicked because their top players have been out. They'll win this week and win easy. Seattle 31 Arizona 17

Bills +3.5 over JETS
I still say the Jets are over-achieving, and they haven't locked up anything yet. What better time to lose and put an end to this Cinderella run than at home against a divisional rival that has been as inconsistent as anyone? Bills 21, Jets 20.

The Jets looked like the second coming of the '72 Dolphins last week. Well at least to Packers Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders. The Jets keep winning, and I keep believing... Jets 31 Bills 20.

CHARGERS -7.5 over Broncos
Jay Cutler, meet Shawn Merriman. I wonder if Mike Shanahan will have second thoughts about benching Jake Plummer after Cutler throws another 2 picks and gets sacked like 5 times, as Denver sees their once-promising playoff run turn into a battle just to make the postseason. Chargers 27, Broncos 17.

The Bolts should handle the Broncos fairly easily. I like the analysis... is Cutler officially the starter now? Shows you how much I know, well, if my picks haven't shown you. I'll take the Chargers too: Chargers 34 Broncos 20

Saints +6.5 over COWBOYS
Ugh. I'm going to just keep picking against the Cowboys out of spite. Romo didn't play very well last week, but he made that one big pass to the tight end at the end to set up the winning field goal. So nobody is criticizing him yet. Still. How annoying. Saints 24 Cowboys 20.

The Saints are a good team, good enough to keep it close. Romo is starting to get on my nerves. He's the flavor of the month and frankly I can't stand all the gushing. I pine for those days when announcers gushed over Brett Favre like this. Hey, did you ever do the drinking game where you chug a beer every time John Madden mentions Brett Favre? I'll tell you what, it kept me good and drunk in the late 1990's Cowboys 24 Saints 21

RAMS +6.5 over Bears
The Rams are still alive for a wildcard berth in the mediocre NFC. The Bears are close to benching Rex Grossman. Did I mention Marc Bulger single-handedly killed my fantasy season? Now that I've missed the playoffs and I'm done in the league, he'll probably light it up for like 5 TDs. Rams 35, Bears 16.

The Bears will mail this one in. The rule of the more desperate team applies and the Rams will keep it close. I'll pick them to win outright as well: Rams 17 Bears 10.

Anti-Picks (a week late)

So, as I mentioned in a recent post, I'm doing so bad in my "money" pool (pick any 5 games each week, with the spread), I'm near last place. Finishing in last has a $300 prize. Winning a single week (which requires going 5 for 5 and often goes to the Monday night point tie-breaker) has a $200 prize. Winning one would be nice.

Baltimore +3.5 over BENGALS
Already got a winner.. err.. I mean loser here! As I said in the "real" picks post, I just had a feeling the Bengals would get on a roll and the Ravens' roll was bound to stop. Why not on the road in a divisional game? 0-1 baby!

RAIDERS -2.5 over Texans
Betting on Art Shell and Aaron Brooks is a sure way to lose.

Cowboys -3.5 over GIANTS
Giving more than a field goal at the Meadowlands with an unproven starting QB going into hostile territory? Yes please! What all the Romo ass-kissers are forgetting is that when he first replaced Bledsoe, it was in the second half against the Giants in Dallas, and he proceeded to throw 3 picks, ending any hopes of a Cowboys comeback. As much as I sorta liked the guy after his Favre impersonation, my hatred of the Cowboys, Parcells, and TO are now being supplemented with the media's total fascination with him. So I'm off the Romo bandwagon.

Seattle +3.5 over BRONCOS
The reverse reverse jinx. I never pick Seattle in hopes that I won't jinx them. In fact, I almost always pick AGAINST them to try the reverse jinx. This week, it's the double reverse. By not not picking them, they'll probably lose. Which is what I want. Well, no, I don't WANT them to lose. But I think their chances of winning in Denver are slim to none. So why not pick them? If they lose (as expected), great, at least I got a wrong pick right and closer to $300. If they win, well, I got a pick right, but they somehow pulled off the upset in Denver, which I'll be ecstatic about. Worse case scenario is they lose by less than 4. Then they lose the game AND I get the pick right. Oh well, gotta take some chances yo.

EAGLES +3.5 over Panthers
Jeff Garcia, meet Julius Peppers. The Eagles are just NOT the same team without McNabb. And the Panthers are pissed off about losing to the Skins last week.

A few thoughts before I start my killing spree...

Over the last three weeks, my Packers have lost convincingly to Anonymous's favorite team (Patriots), St. Ides's favorite team (Seahawks) and my cousin Frank's favorite team (Jets). Next week we play my brother Vinnie's favorite team (49'rs) and I have no reason to believe this drubbing will cease.

First of all, Anonymous was dead on balls regarding the Jets. The 3-4 D baffled and befuddled the hapless Packers, whose offensive line played like they were starting 3 rookies or something. I didn't think things could look any worse than they did during the Patrios game three weeks ago, but after giving up 31 first half points to the Jets I had to admit, they did. There's something else too: Favre looked old again. He's missing open guys and he's terrible going downfield. Some of that is on the receivers who are great at getting seperation at the line but awfull at stretching the field. Just once I'd like to see a Packer receiver with two steps on a defensive back, but alas, Robert Brooks isn't out there. Neither is Corey Bradford or Andre Rison for that matter. I love Driver and Jennings, but we need a guy with speed. Shit, I'd take Randy Moss at this point.

But the disgrace of this team is its defense. This was supposed to be an improved unit over last year, and they're not. In fact they're terrible, and it begins and ends with the coaching staff. Last year, Jim Bates coached a team with a fraction of the talent that this team has, and finished with the 10th ranked defense in the league. This year, it's Bates's assistant Bob Sanders at the helm and he's in way over his head. Sanders is a nice guy. I met him in Green Bay and got his autograph. He had this to say to me about Arizona "They're a very good football team". I can't imagine what he had to say about the Jets. "Ohhhh GODDDDD!!!! I CANT STOP THEM!!!! GODDDD! HERE THEY COME AGAIN!!!!!" Or something like that, I imagine. I hate Bob Sanders and I hate Kurt Schottenheimer, and I'm disgusted with Ted Thompson for bringing them all to Green Bay.

Two weeks ago, someone asked a reporter if he thought there was any chance that Jim Bates might return to coach D for the Packers. The reporter didn't really have an opinion, but he did say that Bates still lived in Green Bay.

Get Jim Bates back, and maybe I'll start tolerating Ted Thompson again.

One other thought before I go: this morning my wife remarked that I never blog about her anymore. In fact, she punctuated her comments with a beautiful rendition of "You don't bring me flowers". I reminded her that I hardly have time to write ANYTHING these days, and that I did write a really nice post about her on our other site the day after Thanksgiving. However I would like to mention that today she spent the day going through some old boxes of clothes and collected 6 or 7 bags for charity. She also got some Christmas presents for the triplets and got rid of several pairs of old shoes. And throughout all of this I was not subjected to any pictures of her ex boyfriends penises. Now that's what I call Thanksgiving

Week 13 (Warning: Includes Thursday's Game) (Additional warning: Samichlaus's picks now available)

We're in the home stretch now! Teams can actually start clinching divisions this week (Bears, Ravens, and Bengals all clinch if they simply win.) Beyond that.. it's anybody's guess. The NFC is a frickin logjam behind the Bears. (And would have been even worse had Hasselbeck (who was pretty close to being redubbed "Hasselstiff") not shaken off the rust in the 2nd half Monday night.)

Weird stuff: I never got St. Ides picks last week, and never got around to doing my own. Now here it is on Sunday morning and I'm finally getting to these. Hmm... must be the holiday season 'cause Ol' Samichlaus finds himself spending a bit too much time dipping into the Christmas cheer with his favorite elf. Yep, things are sure active at the south pole this time of year.

A word about the Seahawks game: First, I would have taken the Seahawks. I honestly believe that the beat down New England put on the Pack effectively killed them. The Packers are done, and that will leave us in the same predicament we were in last season when in January, Packer nation collectively looked at their keyboards and typed "WTF?". Second, when the Pack managed 4 first half picks and held a mere 2 point lead as the teams trotted off the field I thought, "yep, they're done". But I would be remiss if I didn't point out a terrible roughing the passer call that had me screaming at the TV from my couch. Not that it matters, but up until that point there was a flicker of hope... a flicker.

Samichlaus' picks were MIA last week, so we'll judge overall standings by winning percentage now.

Last Week
St. Ides: 7-9
Samichlaus: 0-0

Overall
Samichlaus: 65-65 (.500)
St. Ides: 64-82 (.438)

BENGALS -3.5 over Ravens
Pretty good Thursday night game. At least on paper. This divisional matchup hasn't really turned into much of a rivalry because one or the other teams have mostly sucked in recent years. This year, the Ravens are surprisingly good and the Bengals have been a bit of a disappointment. I think the Bengals turn it around tonight, and this could be a decent rivalry in the making. Bengals 24, Ravens 20.

This one won't count for me... but I probably would have picked the Ravens.

Chiefs -4.5 over BROWNS
Browns were scuffling a bit on the sidelines last week, which is not good. Their passing game has some potential, but their defense and running game need work. The Chiefs aren't nearly as good on the road as at home. But I think a steady dose of LJ should be enough. Chiefs 27, Browns 20.

I agree. The Browns look like there's a bit of chaso going on, and the Chiefs are a good enough team to exploit this Cheifs 24 Browns 10

Cardinals +6.5 over RAMS
So now we find out Marc Bulger has been playing with hurt ribs the past 3-4 weeks or so. Great. NOW they frickin tell me. After he's ruined my fantasy season by throwing only 3 TD passes in the past 5 weeks. Awful, simply awful. Anyways, the Rams defense pretty much stinks, and Leinart looks like he's settling in with the passing game. Upset special? Nah, but it'll be close. Rams 30, Cardinals 27.

I think the Cards are really really bad and the Rams are really really medeocre. I'll take the Rams, partly because I believe they'll win by a TD and partly because I believe it's 1999. Rams 34 Cardinals 24

Falcons +1.5 over REDSKINS
After Michael Vick ran for more yards on ONE PLAY than he threw ALL GAME last week, then double flipped off the home crowd, he's on borrowed time in Atlanta. I think everybody knows he's not turning into that superstar people have been waiting for. At least not in Atlanta. It doesn't help that his receivers can't catch a cold. The Skins showed some life in beating the inconsistent Panthers. But I'll go with the Falcons this time. Falcons 24, Skins 19.

The problem with the Vick brothers is their family. Everyone knows that Virginia Tech is chock full of inmates, rednecks, and one or two fairly bright engineering student who effectively pick up the collective GPA of the school. But boy, they sure have a great football team huh? I've concluded that when a Hokie fan tells me that the student "Comes from a great family" that means they only have 3 or 4 relatives who are currently doing time or will be appearing on "Dog the Bounty Hunter" in the next few weeks. However the Falcons should beat the Skins: Atlanta 27 Washington 20

Vikings +9.5 over BEARS
The Vikings are saying Grossman spoke just a little too much smack last game, when he led the team back for a game-winning TD after his turnover almost killed them. I doubt that will be enough inspiration for the Vikes to pull off the upset, but maybe it'll be close. Bears 13, Vikings 6.

Bears at home against the Vikings, who abolutely suck in oiurdoor venues? I'll go the other way: Bears 27 Vikodins 10

PATRIOTS -13.5 over Lions
Patriots dismantled the Packers 2 weeks ago and knocked off the Bears last week. I think they can handle the Lions pretty easily. How does Matt Millen still have a job? (Sorry, but this game is too boring to say much more about... :P ) Patriots 24, Lions 10.

Yawwwnnnnnn.......(pooootttt) Pats 34 Lions 10

PACKERS +1.5 over Jets
Who woulda thunk at the start of the season that the Packers would be getting points at home against the Jets? Not me. Anyways, the Packers actually played relatively well in Seattle, until the Seattle offense got hot in the 2nd half. And when that offense is clicking, it's hard for ANY defense to stop them. I just can't figure out why they didn't try running the ball more at a weak run defense. Anyways, Pennington hasn't looked very good of late, that weak arm is starting to show a bit. No way the Packers lose this game. Packers 26, Jets 17.

First, I'll answer the run question: With Mark Tausher out and Chad Clifton hurt, the Packers are starting 3 rookies on the O line, and sadly they have not mastered the zone blocking scheme. When the Packers tried to run, Seattle was all over it. Now, to address Anonymous: the ONLY way the Packers win is if the weather is cold and windy. Today's weather? Game time temp is 15, winds blowing at 16mph. One might argue that the rule of the more desperate team applies here and the Jets should win, but I'm taking the long shot: Packer 20 Jets 17

Niners +6.5 over SAINTS
The Niners played a pretty good game in St. Louis last week, and some conservative play-calling by their coach (kicking a field goal on 4th and an inch deep in Rams territory) has been ripped apart all week. The Saints are lighting it up through the air, but their defense is shaky. Which means Frank Gore could possibly go for 200 yards. Should be close enough to take the points I think. Saints 31, Niners 27.

I like the Saints at home and so do the script writers. San Fran has looked improved, but I'm convinced they're goin to lose their next two games. Saints 31 Niners 17

BILLS +6.5 over Chargers
One of these days, the Chargers are going to fall behind to a team they're supposed to beat and NOT make the comeback. This isn't that week. Although I did make the right call about the Jaguars coming to frigid Buffalo and stinking, and I think it might snow this week. Merriman will be back for the Chargers though. I'm tempted to go upset special with this one outright, but J.P. Losman scares me. Chargers 26, Bills 20.

That's a gutsy call. I like it, but I'm going the other way. The point about the weather is well taken: today's game time report is snow showers and temps in the 30's, but at this point no one has played in really bad weather. All things considered, I'll stick with the Bolts in a close one: Chargers 27 Bills 17

TITANS +7.5 over Colts
Vince Young has some confidence after that ridiculous comeback against the Giants. And the Titans usually play their divisional games pretty close. I'm getting really sick of Peyton Manning commercials. Colts 30, Titans 24.

Can some one please roll up on Peytee-Pie's leg ala Hassleback and put him out of our collective misery? Oh wait, that means he'd have more free time to film commercials. The Titans - Giants game was astounding, and probably the greatest collapse I've ever witnessed, but I think that was more about the Giants than the Titans. 7.5 is a lot to give to a home team, but I'll take it. Oh and don't share that with St. Ides's dad. I'm still trying to convince him to adopt me. Colts 34 Titans 20

TEXANS +2.5 over Raiders
Here it is.. the Stinker of the Week! God, I can't even bring myself to write anything meaningful on this game. Texans 20, Raiders 17.

Another one of those pick on someone your own size games. The Raiders will consider this a break as they won’t have to face off against one of those nasty AFC West defenses this week. The Houston Texans have been good medicine for many an NFL team, and against the scrapping Raiders who have now covered in 6 of the last 7 games this one is one that either team can break through with a W. Houston has been slinging the ball around a bit and have covered in two of the last three road games, and three of the previous 5 games. Laying points with this bunch of losers is risky either way, I could easily see David Carr and Andre Johnson hooking up for a monster game and rolling the Raiders. However, despite the Raiders propensity to choke, I like the Texans propensity to suck more. 2.5 points is about all I can stand, if this were to be 3 or more I would probably be all over the Texans.

OK, I didn't write any of that. I cut and pasted it from some loser's gambling site so I guess I should plug him: http://www.panageotech.com/thenfledge/. (I googled NFL game analysis and this was like the second or third site. BTW, still looking for SBS.... page 279 of 13,623,593) I agree with St. Ides: the SBS stinker of the week. And I disagree with this loser. Texans 20 Raiders 17

GIANTS +3.5 over Cowboys
Interesting game. On one hand, you have the Cowboys, on the rise since putting Tony Romo (rumored to be banging Jessica Simpson) in as the starter. On the other hand, you have the Giants, who collapses against the Titans, have players not only questioning the coach, but fighting with one another. Oh and their "star" QB is sucking. They're very close away to completely imploding. Which is why I think they win this game. Maybe Romo stays up a little too late the night before with Jessica in NYC, but he's about due for a bad game. A really bad game. (Oh, and the Cowboys cut Vanderjerk. How funny is that?) Giants 24, Cowboys 16.

I always liked "Vandershank" as his nickname, you know? OK, interesting game. Throw out Shockey's "guarantee" and essentially we have one team on the rise and one team in the midst of a full blown implosion. In fact the Giants are pretty damn far "very close". "Very Close" was 12 minutes to go in the 4th quarter last week. Dallas will continue to play well and win by at least 4. (but wouldn't it be great if they lose because of a Martin Gramatica missed FG?) Dallas 24 Giants 20

Jaguars +1.5 over DOLPHINS
It's the epic battle of Florida! Joey Harrington had his victorious return to Detroit on Thanksgiving, and his confidence has to be high right now. Which means he ought to play awful. The Jaguars look good at times. And awful at others. I think it's their turn to look good. Jaguars 20, Dolphins 16.

I'll go the other way. I had a nice chat with my Dolphins insider (Mrs. Samichlaus's dad) who now believes that Joey Harrington is the second coming of, well, not Dan Marino or Bob Greise. Hmm... definitely not Earl Morrell but we're getting close. Somewhere between Earl Morrell and Sage Rosenfels. Dolphins at home continue their late season upswing: Fishes 27 Jags 24

Bucanneers +7.5 over STEELERS
The way the Steelers have played, they shouldn't be giving 7 points to anybody. And Hines Ward is out now too. Ladies and gentlemen, it's the 2007 edition of the "Super Bowl Loser's Curse!" Oh wait. Nevermind... Steelers 24, Bucs 23.

Hines Ward is a huge loss. Next to Najeh Davenport he's the best player on the team. I'll take the Bucs as well. Steelers win but fail to cover: Steelers 17 Bucs 14

BRONCOS -3.5 over Seahawks
I just don't trust that seahawks defense. On the road. In one of the toughest places to play. Even if it is a rookie QB in his first start, that just means Denver is going to run the ball down their throat even more. And Seattle has shown no ability to stop the run. It'll take a turnover or two by Cutler, none by Seattle, and a last second Hasselbeck comeback to pull this one out. I just don't see it happening. Broncos 27, Seahawks 20.

Seattle had a terriffic second half last week. What can I say? If they can put it together for 4 quarters then they'll have no trouble with the Broncos, even in Denver. Look for Seattle to run first today behind Jones & Co. and keep the Broncos off the field. Seattle 20 Denver 17

Panthers -3.5 over EAGLES
Panthers have to be pissed about losing to the Skins last week. Eagles are pretty much done without McNabb, and now even their defense isn't looking so good. Is it just me, or have most of the Monday night games been pretty bad lately? Panthers 24, Eagles 16.

The Monday nighters have stunk, and that my friend is a loving tribute to that broadcast team of Tirico, Theisman and Kornholer. Actually, Tirico is a good play by play guy. I like him. I've always hated Theisman, and Kornholer is just an un-funny sarcastic putz. Well, he did have one good line the other night. Theisman had mentioned that Shaun Alexander was such a good runner because he "kept his legs under him". Kornholer fired right back: "Where else would he keep 'em Joe?"? Theisman was speechless, a huge accomplishment for Kornholer. Anyway, I'll take the Cats to devour some tasty birds: Panthers 20 Eagles 12

Week 12 (or "Huh? This wasn't here last week!")

Early week this week! Football! Turkey! Wine! Woohoo!

And if you don't have the NFL Network (and if you have cable, you probably don't), sucks for you! The best game of the day is only on the NFL Network. And there will be Thursday night games from here on out. So get on the horn and yell at your cable provided that you want it!

Why don't the cable companies have it? Because they're greedy bastards. The NFL Network is charging X amount of dollars for companies to carry them. Which I guess is a bit higher than a "typical" channel. But, then again, they're peddling the above average produuct as well. The cable companies say if they're paying that much, then the channel will only be carried on "premium packages" so they can recover some of the cost. The NFL is like "No way. We want this on basic cable. We want to reach every household that has cable." And the cable companies are like "No way. We're not paying you THAT much and then giving the channel away for free." So that's the stand-off. It'll be interesting to see who breaks down first. My guess is the cable companies. Football is THAT big a deal that they likely have the upper hand. But I'll guess we'll see. What the cable companies SHOULD do is say "Okay, we'll put you on basic cable, but when your monopoly... errr.. I mean... "exclusive agreement" with DirectTV is up, we want a piece of that action." But they're probably not smart enough to think of that.

So in my actual money pool, after an 0-5 week, I am now tied for 63rd out of 70, just 2 games out of last place. Last place has a $300 booby prize. That's my new goal! (My dad is tied for 2nd place, just 2 games out of first. The first place prize is MUCH bigger than the last place prize.)

Samichalus has a decent week and pulls back to .500, whicl St. Ides will need a few miracles to pull even before the season ends.

Last Week
Samichlaus: 9-7
St. Ides: 6-10

Overall:
Samichlaus: 65-65
St. Ides: 57-73

LIONS +2.5 over Dolphins
As bad as the Lions have been, they're 7-5 in their last 12 Thanksgiving games. And I'll take the points at home on Thanksgiving against a hot Dolphins team that is due to cool off. Subplot - Joey Harrington returns to Detroit! Expect him to choke. Lions 23, Dolphins 17.

Bucs +10.5 over COWBOYS
Warning! Warning! Let down game alert! Cowboys are feeling good now that they're tied with the Giants for first, they knocked off the Colts, and Romo seems to be shaping up. (Could it be "The QB who replaces Bledsoe Mid-season takes the team to the Super Bowl" all over again? Doubt it.) Bucs defense looks better of late. Though that rookie QB is still a bit shaky. Cowboys 23, Bucs 16.

CHIEFS +0.5 over Broncos
Broncos suffered a back-breaking loss at home to the Chargers last week. Their "dominant" defense suddenly looks pretty mediocre. Now they go to KC, one of the toughest places to play in the league. Trent Green got some of the rust off, Tony Gonzalez should be back, and look for Jake Plummer to give way to Jay Cutler after this debacle. Chiefs 26, Broncos 10.

VIKINGS -6.5 over Cardinals
Cards got that win last week at home against the Lions, but it was close. Vikings defense is too much for them. This game actually has "Stinker of the Week" potential. Vikings 23, Cards 10.

Panthers -4.5 over REDSKINS
Panthers are finding their groove and are definitely in the hunt for the NFC title now, though personally I don't really trust their running game or Jake Delhomme. The Skins are a mess. Panthers 24, Skins 17.

FALCONS -2.5 over Saints
I've been saying for 2 weeks that the Falcons are desperate, and they've stunk up the joint. However, the Saints have come back down to earth a bit as well, especially their defense. Drew Brees threw for over 500 yards last week, and they still lost. Falcons 30, Saints 27.

RAMS -5.5 over Niners
Holy poop, the Niners are suddenly Seattle's biggest threat for the NFC West title! They're only one game back, and now hold the head-to-head tie-breaker. Marc Bulger has single-handedly killed my fantasy season by throwing ZERO TDs in the past 2 weeks. This should be a shootout, but I think the Rams should pull it out. Rams 33, Niners 24.

BILLS +2.5 over Jaguars
Who the hell can figure out the Jaguars? They lose twice to the Texans, yet destroy the Giants. It ought to be pretty cold by now in Buffalo, so I'll go with that and the points. Bills 20, Jaguars 17.

Texans +5.5 over JETS
Not sure I can trust the Jets immediately after Pennington's bad performance last week. Yes, it was the Bears. But the Bears are definitely beatable. If the Jets have any real shot of actually making the playoffs, they need to beat teames like the Texans. They could win, but might not cover. Jets 23, Texans 20.

Bengals -3.5 over BROWNS
The Bengals offense has suddenly come to life. Chad Johnson has been on fire, and maybe Carson Palmer's knee is finally feeling better. Browns suffered a crushing loss at home last week to the Steelers. Make it two in a row divisional losses at home. Ouch. Bengals 30, Browns 20.

RAVENS -2.5 over Steelers
If the Ravens are for real, they put the division away for all intents and purposes by KO'ing the Steelers in this one. Big Ben ought to get his brain rattled around a bit more in this one. And has anybody else noticed the Steelers defense isn't really stopping anyone? Joey Porter is awfully quiet when he's sucking. Ravens 27, Steelers 17.

CHARGERS -13.5 over Raiders
The past two weeks, the Raiders have stayed close enough to the Broncos and Chiefs to give them scares. And to cover the double-digit points they were getting. Not this week. Tomlinson looks frickin unstoppable. Chargers 26, Raiders 10.

PATS -3.5 over Bears
The final game of the Bears tough Giants-Jets-Pats road trip, they run outta steam for this one. I guess this will really be a good test to see what kind of shape the Pats offense and coaching staff are in. The Bears defense can be run on. The Bears offense is still led by unproven Rex Grossman. If the Patriots can't win this game, they can start reserving some tee times in Florida for late January. Patriots 23, Bears 16.

TITANS +3.5 over Giants
Eli Manning looked awful, I mean AWFUL on Monday night. I submitted my QB rankings to Samichlaus before the game, but I'd drop him a few slots after that performance. Between the injuries and Eli, I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants miss the playoffs. Titans 24, Giants 23.

COLTS -9.5 over Eagles
Is there any single player as important to their team as McNabb? The Colts haven't covered the big spreads often this year, and their defense can be run on. But I think maybe this is one they cover against an Eagles team ready to fall off the map. Colts 26, Eagles 16.

Packers +6.5 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle looked totally flat against the Niners, and their run defense was awful. Seneca Wallace went 2-2 as the starter, but he also turned the ball over 9 times (7 picks, 2 fumbles), which is more than 2 a game. Hasselbeck will be back, so that should change. Look for him and Deion Branch to work on their own chemistry and this could be a shootout. Favre's last game against Holmgren? Could be. How's that arm feeling though? I think Seattle will win this game, but might not cover. Seahawks 27, Packers 23.

Week 11 (or "Have we always sucked at this stuff like this?")

Here we go!
Not a great week for either of us last week... And it drops Samichlaus below .500 on the season.

I sweard to Jiminy Christ himself I though we had a better week than this. St. Ides hits on it in his first pick: the point spreads have be HUGE. With half the league sitting somewhere between 4-5 and 5-4 the playoff hunt is wide open and parity is alive and well, but somethings going on with the double digit spreads and 'Ol Samichlaus is going to get to the bottom of it.

PS: Look for my Packers breakdown below!

Last Week -
St. Ides: 6-10
Samichlaus: 5-11

Overall -
Samichlaus: 56-58
St. Ides: 51-63


Titans +12.5 over EAGLES
Is it just me, or are there more double-digit spreads than usual this season? Eagles took care of the Skins at home convincingly last week, and should have it easy against the Titans. Which puts them right back in the mix for the NFC East. Vince Young will still probably struggle a bit against good defenses. Eagles 24, Titans 10.

I'm not surprised that Reggie Bush is struggling but I have to say, Vince Young caught me by surprise. I really thought he'd be playing a bit better than he is. It just goes to show you: the college game is childs play next to the NFL. Of course, back in the day the College All Stars used to play the NFL Champs in an exhibition game before the start of the season. One year in the early 1960's, the College All Stars beat Lombardi's Packers (who honestly saw the game for what it was: a meaningless exhibition where the goal is not to get injured). Well, Lombardi didn't see it that way. The following week he tortured the team in ways that would make Bobby Knight squeal like a little girl. But I digress: Eagles 31 Titans 13

BUCS -3.5 over Redskins
Mark Brunell has been benched. Clinton Portis is out for the season. Santana Moss has been banged up. You think this Campbell kid is going to be able to go into Tampa and win against that defense? I doubt it. Though the Bucs rookie QB has looked bad lately too. Bucs 20, Skins 16.

I heard the Brunell press conference. Gotta say, he's a stand-up guy. I think the Redskins have officially given up. They're a team of Hutchinsons: overpayed underperforming free agents, and give Joe Gibbs credit for givind the new kid a chance. Meanwhile, I don't know what to make of the Bucs, but I'll agree with St. Ides. I'm taking "Chuckie" over Gibbs in a close one: Bucs 24 Skins 20

JETS +6.5 over Bears
If they can beat the Pats in Foxboro, I'm thinking they might just have a chance to keep it close at home against the Bears. Grossman has looked awful at times, and if they can pressure him like they did Brady, he might stink it up enough for this to be a tight game. Bears 20, Jets 17.

Hold on to you balls, I think the Jets win this one outright. The only reason the Bears beat the Giants last week was because half the Giants starters were either out or dinged up. J-E-T-S etc. etc. etc. Jets 17 Bears 13

PACKERS +5.5 over Patriots
Anonymous wrote: "I have never seen back to back games of the Pats playing poorly" Oh, how quickly a string of success can make one forget about years of misery. Let me remind him of the good ol' Steve Grogan/Tony Eason era. Anyways, I think Belichek is at the point where he's getting too arrogant, and maybe won't listen to his other coaches or something. That whole thing with Mangini was ridiculous. Meanwhile, Favre is having fun. I think this could be a good game, and I'll go out on a limb and say it'll be close... or a blowout.. one of the other. Patriots 23, Packers 21.

Allright, here's the quick breakdown of the Packers:

Offenseive Scheme: Mike McCarthy is running a traditional West Coast Offense, and it's starting to pay dividends. In previous seasons the Pack had gotten away from the WCO and were running what I like to call the Midwestcoast Offense (clever motherfucker that I am). Favre is somwhere between thrilled and ecstatic to be running this more traditional O and has shown it by putting up Brady-esque numbers.

Passing game: Lots of slants to Donald Driver. Did you see the slant to Driver last week that went for an 83 yard TD? If the Vikes had only read SBS they'd a known it was comming. Truth is Driver and rookie Greg Jennings are becomming quite a 1-2 combo, but both are a bit dinged. TE Bubba Franks has all but been replaced by David Martin in passing situations. Beyond that the receiving corps are made up of pedestrian street free agents and practice squad players. Sort of like the Patriots now that I think of it.

Running Game: McCarthy instituted a zone blocking scheme that's starting to pay dividends. Ahman Green is healthy, but is always a fumble risk. The Pack gets Vernan Morency back, who has been out since he ran for over 100 yards against the Cardinals. William Henderson may get the nod at FB if Brandon Miree is still hurt

Defense: The Packers play a basic 4-3 D, and play man coverage against the pass, with the corners up in press and a variation of quarters for the DBs. They play this very well 95% of the time, but every single game they absolutely blow 1 or 2 coverages. Brady will be all over this. The Packers linebackers have come into their own: Nick Barnett is playing solid and A.J Hawk has improved every week. Even Brady Popinga has played well, but he will have his hands full against the Patriots Tight End attack.

Special Teams: Who cares.

Final Prediction: The Patriots are a well diciplined team and are hungry for a win. The game will be statistically close, but the final score won't. The Pats will exploit the mistake prone Packers and win easy. Patriots 31 Packers 21

DOLPHINS -3.5 over Vikings
Let the QB controversy begin in Minnesota! And before the season started, people wondered why Brad Johnson was the lowest paid starting QB in the league. Their defense is respectable, but their offense blows. And an offense that blows isn't a good thing against a good defense. Let's see how Hutch does against that solid Miami d-line. Dolphins 19, Vikings 10.

The Dolphins have really shown me something the last two weeks, and so have the Vikings. Brad Johnson looked all of his 38 years against the Packers last week and frankly I officially have my doubts about Brad Childress as a coach (to think I really wanted him coaching Green Bay) Dolphins 24 Viqueens 17

RAVENS -4.5 over Falcons
I'm tempted to take the Falcons on the "more desperate team" rule, but they were pretty desperate last week too, and lost at home to the Browns. Mora Jr. is on borrowed time in Atlanta. Ray Lewis might miss a few games, but the Ravens D should still be solid enough to give Vick fits. Notice how quickly the "Wow, maybe he's finally figured it out!" talk has died down about Mr. Mexico? Ravens 26, Falcons 17.

I like the logic about the more desperate team... tough game to pick, is Ray Lewis really a difference maker any more? I like the Ravens a lot this year and I think it's too early to apply the rule of the more desperate team. Maybe. Ravens 31 Mr. Sore Pecker 24

Rams +6.5 over PANTHERS
Early in the season, when they were 4-1, I said something like "Wow, Jim Haslett has done a nice job as the Rams defensive coordinator! Maybe he just wasn't meant to be a head coach, but he knows his defenses!" 4 straight losses later, I take that back. The Rams defense is awful. Still, they manage to keep games close with their offensive attack. I just traded away Steven Jackson in one of my fantasy leagues, so that means he's probably good for like 4 TDs. Upset special? Maybe.... Rams 30, Panthers 28.

I'll go the other way. I think the Rams are ready to blow and the Panthers are the team to blow 'em. Wait, that sounds gay. What I mean is Panther 27 Rams 17

SAINTS -3.5 over Bengals
Both these teams got into shootouts last week, and lost. Saints in Pittsburgh, Bengals at home to San Diego. The Bengals defense can't stop anybody. Regge Bush got his first TD from scrimmage last week, this could be the perfect team to have a nice encore against. Saints 31, Bengals 24.

I like the Bengals in this game. They're a better road team than they get credit for and I'm just not convinced that the Saints are any good. We watched that Steelers game last week (Najeh Davenport is officially number two, uhh, second on the depth charts) and the Saints were less impressive than the score indicates. Bengals 35 Saints 24

TEXANS -2.5 over Bills
Wow, do the Texans own the Jaguars or what? It's scary. Look for Mario Williams to rack up a couple sacks on J.P. Losman. Could this be the "Stinker of the Week"...? Texans 24, Bills 16.

I don't know what to make of the Bills. The Packers should have beat them, then they almost beat the Colts. Meanwhile, I can't seem to get the Texans right either. Have I even gotten one of their games right? Bills 20 Texans 17.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Lions
Nope, this one is. The Cardinals have to win another game, right? I got Anquan Boldin as part of that Steven Jackson deal.. which means he'll have like 1 catch before breaking his collarbone. Cardinals 23, Lions 17.

The SBS Stinker of the week it is. I'll take the Lions just because I like their coach better than I like Denny Green, who evidently can't coach unless he's got a young Daunte Culpepper throwing to Randy Moss and Chris Carter. Of course, I can't remember the name of their coach... Lions 24 Cardinals 17


BROWNS +3.5 over Steelers
Pittsburgh showed some life last week against the Saints. The Browns did too though, and I like what they're doing on offense. Braylon Edwards was talking some smack in this game, saying they want some revenge for the 41-0 ass-whuppin the Steelers laid down on them last year in Cleveland. They might just get it... Maybe... Browns 24, Steelers 23.

It's a long way from last year to this year, but I'm taking Pittsburg. The biggest reason the Saints game was so close was the loss of Troy Polamalu early on with a concussion. He's back this week and so are the Steelers: Steelers 31 Browns 17


Raiders +9.5 over CHIEFS
Trent Green is back, and will be a bit rusty. Tony Gonzalez is out with a sprained shoulder. That means the load falls in Larry Johnson. Somehow the Raiders kept it close against Denver last week, who refused to blitz Andrew Walter a week after the Seahawks racked up 9 sacks against him. Art Shell may be the worst coach in football. Chiefs 20, Raiders 13.

Let's do an analysis of all the coaches in the NFL and rank them. We'll do it seperatly and compare notes. But we do agree on one, eh? I'll take the Chiefs and the points at home. Chiefs 34 Raiders 13


NINERS +3.5 over Seahawks
Trap game. Alexander will be back, and that should provide some emotional boost. But Seattle struggled in San Fran last year against a worse team and had to swat down a last second 2-point conversion to seal the win. Julian Peterson should be pumped up to return to Frisco too. I dunno, I just think Seattle has been playing too well lately with mostly backups, and it's bound to catch up to them eventually. Seahawks 26, Niners 23.

I'll bet it doesn't catch up to them in Frisco. I'll also bet that Hasselback goes along with Alexander, and they both play well. I think the Seahawks are realizing that they can win without their two studs, and if they do they're going to be mighty dangerous. Seahawks 31 Niners 20

Colts +0.5 over COWBOYS
People are pointing to this game as the Colts biggest obstacle towards going unbeaten. The only way to beat the Colts is to pressure Manning non-stop. The Cowboys have the personnel to do it. But somehow I see TO dropping an important pass late, and blowing this one. Colts 30, Cowboys 28.

After last weeks game against the Bills I think the Colts are ready to flop. St. Ides had it right last week: they're not blowing people out. I really thought they'd trounce Buffalo and they couldn't. Something has to give and I think it's this week: Cowboys 24 Colts 17.

BRONCOS -2.5 over Chargers
So far this "flex" thing on Sunday night is working out pretty well. I like the Chargers, but they are banged up on defense. And they were down to the Bengals for a big portion of the game last week. And the Broncos are good at home. Should be a good one, and goes a long way towards deciding the AFC West. Broncos 23, Chargers 20.

I think this is the best game of the week, and I'm starting to think the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL. Chargers - Colts, right now, who would win? As tough as Denver is at home, I like the Chargers. Weather for Sunday is Sunny and temps in the 40s at game time. Bolts 30 Horsies 27

Giants +3.5 over JAGUARS
Despite all the Giants injuries and their poor second half against the Bears, I simply cannot pick a team that has lost to the Texans twice this season. Giants 27, Jags 23.

Yep. The Giants will get healthy this week for sure, and the Jaguars? Well I'm sick of losing picks to them. The Giants win easy on the big stage: Giants 27 Jags 10

Samichlaus breaks down the Patriots (with a little help from Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Bill Belichick ranks at the top of his profession and will be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. He's also 54, an age when you'd think the man wouldn't find the need to be so cold and petty.

Apparently, Belichick didn't think Eric Mangini should have taken the New York Jets job. It was Belichick who brought Mangini into the NFL in 1995 and, in 2005, promoted him from his secondary coach to his coordinator.

But Mangini, 35, wanted to become a head coach. He had done a magnificent job for the Patriots and Belichick. At that point, doesn't one just say heartfelt thanks for all the contributions and wish him good luck in the future?

Of course one does, but not Belichick. Last week, he refused even to say his former friend's name in news conferences. And then, after Mangini proved his merit as a coach by pulling an upset in Foxborough, Belichick cut their mid-field handshake off so quickly that Mangini looked caught in mid-sentence.

All Belichick did was heap embarrassment upon himself.


OFFENSE


SCHEME

QB coach Josh McDaniels, 30, also received the coordinator's duties in January and supposedly calls the plays in conjunction with coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots are comfortable pounding away with multiple tight ends in their gap-style ground game or flooding the field with wide receivers from "empty" formations. They run on 46.3% of the downs. New England ranks 11th in points (22.3) and yards (345.0), and is tied for 11th in turnovers (15).

RECEIVERS

With Deion Branch traded to Seattle on Sept. 11, there is no No. 1 WR and perhaps not even a legitimate No. 2. The best receiver is TE Benjamin Watson (6 feet 3½ inches, 255 pounds), a phenomenal athlete with 4.51-second speed in the 40-yard dash and rare athleticism. He doesn't care much for blocking and will drop the ball on occasion. The other TE, Daniel Graham (6-3, 257), is a good to outstanding run-blocker and productive red-zone receiver. On the outside, Belichick shuffles in former Charger Reche Caldwell (5-11½, 210), 14-year veteran Troy Brown (5-9½, 196), former Raider Doug Gabriel (6-2, 215), former Texan Jabar Gaffney (6-1½, 205) and rookie Chad Jackson (6-0½, 215), a second-round pick. Caldwell is the most athletic and has good speed, but he isn't physical and disappears in big games. Brown will go anywhere to catch a ball but is 35. Gabriel is neither quick nor fast but has a knack for making plays when he's in the right place. Gaffney is skilled but can't run. Jackson has 4.32 speed but makes mistakes.

OFFENSIVE LINE

LT Matt Light (6-4½, 305), LG Logan Mankins (6-4, 310) and C Dan Koppen (6-2½, 296) all rank among the top half of the league at their positions. Light, a six-year starter, doesn't have Chad Clifton's feet or balance but he's good with his hands, efficient and tough. Mankins, the 32nd pick in '05, isn't a great athlete but he is aggressive, consistent and technically sound. Koppen, a four-year starter, also plays with plenty of attitude, quickness and intelligence. RG Stephen Neal (6-4, 305) is expected to miss his fourth straight game with a shoulder injury. Third-stringer Billy Yates had been starting for Neal because second-stringer Russ Hochstein also was hurt. On Sunday, Yates suffered a season-ending leg injury. However, Hochstein (6-3½, 305) is back now, once started a Super Bowl and should be competent. Adequate RT Nick Kaczur (6-4½, 315) relies more on agility than power.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady (6-4½, 225), a three-time Pro Bowl pick, is coming off two subpar outings after destroying the Vikings in Week 7. His decision-making, leadership, toughness, accuracy and feel are off the charts. He can't run a lick but usually is able to sidestep the rush. At times, he has reacted poorly to pressure. Some say he looks banged up. Little-used backup Matt Cassel (6-4½, 225) was joined Tuesday by Vinny Testaverde (6-5, 233), who turned 43 Monday and was retired.

RUNNING BACKS

Corey Dillon (6-0½, 225) continues to start but rookie Laurence Maroney (6-0, 220), the 21st pick, gets as many carries and is far more explosive. Dillon, 32, still can get the tough yards and is an old hand in blitz pickup. He just can't run away from anybody anymore. Maroney isn't the most creative runner but he has 4.48 speed, finds the creases and packs a surprising punch. Quick little Kevin Faulk (5-7½, 202) still makes tacklers miss as a third-down receiver. FB Heath Evans (6-0, 250) is OK.


DEFENSE


SCHEME

The first-year coordinator, Dean Pees, moved up from LB coach to replace Mangini. The Patriots' base is the 3-4 but in an earlier game this season it was all 4-3. They're generally a zone team using "quarters" coverage. Belichick is a master of deception, particularly on third down. New England ranks fourth in points allowed (14.6), tied for eighth in takeaways (17) and ninth in yards allowed (301.2).

DEFENSIVE LINE

RE Richard Seymour (6-5½, 310) has been far less dominant since damaging an elbow Oct. 22. Belichick started Seymour at LE last week and pulled him for about 20 snaps. Seymour has great size, strength, athletic ability and intensity. LE Ty Warren (6-4½, 300), an elite run defender, missed the first game of his career last week with a shoulder injury and his status is unknown. The other top-notch end, Jarvis Green (6-3, 285), keeps getting better and better against run and pass. He's a fixture inside alongside Seymour on passing downs. The LE in nickel is Tully Banta-Cain (6-2, 250), who has 4.81 speed and plays hard. NT Vince Wilfork (6-1, 325), the 21st pick in '04, isn't as quick as Minnesota's Pat Williams but is even better occupying two gaps and keeping blockers off linebackers.

LINEBACKERS

This group is short on speed but makes up for it with amazingly quick reactions. LOLB Mike Vrabel (6-4, 261), a six-year starter, might be having his finest season. He anchors well over the tight end, can rush and drop, and is highly instinctive. ROLB Rosevelt Colvin (6-2½, 250), who plays RE on passing downs, is the team's best pass rusher. Colvin is exceptionally quick, fast enough and surprisingly strong, but he can't cover. WILB Tedy Bruschi (6-0, 247) probably isn't what he was since suffering a stroke in February 2005. He's also 33. But Bruschi still has uncanny instincts and is liable to show up anywhere. SILB Junior Seau (6-2, 248), who was signed Aug. 18, is 37 and wearing down. He'll tackle what he can get to but doesn't shed blocks and has lost more than a step.

SECONDARY

The loss of SS Rodney Harrison in Week 8 with a broken shoulder blade was devastating. Thus, former Steelers CB Chad Scott (6-1, 205) was moved inside and LCB Ellis Hobbs (5-9, 190) regained his job. Perhaps the most effective starter is FS Artrell Hawkins (5-10, 195), a onetime starting CB in Cincinnati. He's active, still runs well at 30 and isn't the least bit timid. Scott, 32, relies on veteran savvy and is holding up fine. Hobbs, a third-round pick in '05, has 4.46 speed, quick feet and likes to hit. RCB Asante Samuel (5-11, 185), a three-year starter, isn't as fast as Hobbs and at times gives excessive cushion. FS Eugene Wilson (5-10½, 195), a four-year starter, figures to miss his sixth game in seven weeks with a hamstring injury.

SPECIAL TEAMS

In 10 categories the Patriots under eighth-year coach Brad Seely ranked sixth in overall performance after eight games. Rookie K Stephen Gostkowski, a fourth-round pick, has made 10 of 14 as the replacement for Adam Vinatieri. He ranks second in kickoff average at 68 yards. P Josh Miller, 36, has lost some leg strength over the years but still does a solid job directionally. Maroney didn't return much at Minnesota but has ripped off a 29.7 average as a rookie. He's much harder to bring down than the average returner and loves to stiff-arm folks. Faulk, tied for second in punt-return average at 13.1, isn't flashy but makes good decisions, has excellent hands and is hard to corral. Linebackers Larry Izzo and Don Davis are the best players on struggling cover units.

HOW DO YOU BEAT THESE GUYS?

Despite their poor performance the last two games, the Patriots remain an elite team. Anonymous nailed it though in his last comment, the problem right now is the head coach. We all know how Belichick handles success, but we've lost sight of how he handles failure. It eerily seems like Cleveland in the early days, but I can't believe that this team is ready to melt down. Truth is this is a better team than Green Bay, and the better team usually wins. The Packers 5 keys to success are simple:

1: Pressure Brady with the front four and hope the linebackers are up to the challenge of stopping New England's Tight End Arial Attack.

2: Play flawless football. No defensive breakdowns and no turnovers. That means you Brett.

3: Keep the game plan simple. New England's defense is all about deception, and they're better than just about every offense who tries to attack them.

4: Stop Laurence Maroney. I think Maroney is the best young running back in the game, better than Reggie Bush and anyone else you can think of.

5: Don't get beat on special teams. You can do all of the above and still lose because of special teams. New England will come prepared and will be up to the challenge. The game could come down to a field goal or a special teams play.

Or New England could simply devistate the young Packer team.

Tomorrow I'll have a less detailed but equally compelling look at the Packers.

The biggest game of the season, well at least the Pro season, because it isn't bigger than that Michigan game in Ohio on Saturday, you know...

This is the biggest game of the season thus far for both the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. One team struggles for respectability, the other for identity. Although they play in different conferences, the teams are oddly joined at the hip.

One team's aging quarterback, considered by all to be past his prime and by many to be past productivity is suddenly playing the best football he's played in recent memory. The other teams quarterback, considered by all to be a dead on accurate passer and by many to be the best quarterback in the league, is suddenly having issues with interceptions. But their stats are eerily similar: One reads 304 - 180 - 2054, 15 TD, 9 Int, QB rating of 83.7. The other reads 352 - 203 - 2295 13 TD, 9 Int, QB rating of 81.3. Without peeking, can you guess who's who? One team, not known for its defense, has played solid D but can't seem to get through a game without giving up at least one huge play. The other team, known for it's impeccable defense, has suddenly had issues giving up at least one huge play (though at times that play has come from the Offense). Both teams have run the ball well and have stud running backs, but have inexplicably passed in obvious running situations and have been subsequently burned.

And both teams have terrific motivation this week. One team struggles to reach .500 as suddenly talks of a Wild Card seem completely realistic, while the other team tries to figure out how to stop the bleeding after losing two in a row for the first time in 3 years.

When all is said and done, there may be bigger games ahead for both teams, but for now this one is as big as it gets.

Tomorrow, God willing, I'll break down the Patriots and tell you what the Packers need to do to beat them (yes, it is possible). I'll also break down the Packers and tell Anonymous what the Pats need to do to beat the Packers. No, seriously.

Quick hitter on Hutchinson...

Regular readers to SBS know it's no secret that Steve Hutchinson's defection to the Viqueens left a bitter taste on St. Ides's beer soaked taste buds. For what its worth, the conventional wisdom in the NFL seems to think that not only did Minnesota overpay for him, but that Hutchinson simply isn't as good as he used to be.

This from JSOnline's Bob McGinn:

The Packers will get their first look at guard Steve Hutchinson in a Vikings' uniform. Minnesota gave Hutchinson $16 million in bonuses this season in a transition free-agent offer that the Seahawks declined to match. "Not in a million years would I pay that guy $49 million," an opposing defensive coach said. "You can get away without having tremendous guards. He's a pretty good guard, but it's not like he comes off and mauls people. When he gets his hands on you he can block pretty good." One scout used the word "solid" to describe Hutchinson's season. "He's not playing what he was last year in Seattle," the scout said. "Whether that's a comfort level with who he's playing with, I don't know. In Seattle, he was just a road grader. He has been good, that's it. Before I thought he was outstanding. He's not what he was in Seattle."

Truth be told, Hutchinson isn't making an impact in Minnesota, and he probably wouldn't be adding much in Seattle.

For the love of Anonymous: The picks are posted! All of 'em! No, Seriously!

Some comments I sent to Anonymous after watching Monday Night Football:

I think Christian Slater was stoned, drunk, or both. He was making next to no sense. And what the hell was that veiled reference to Suzy Kolber about? Weird.

Gotta love the pump fake. I don't know why more pro QBs don't do it. In today's NFL, DBs are ALWAYS looking to make the big play and peeking into the backfield, ready to jump the route. Two weeks in a row, Seneca Wallace has done the old "pump fake short, throw deep" play. Both times it resuled in TDs. Last week, Ty Law (who still gets alllllllllllllllll my love) was so faked out, he fell down. This week, Deion Branch didn't even turn around to try and sell the pump fake. He just ran a patten right for the corner cone, and thanks to the pump fake, he was wide open. Long live the pump fake!

Tony Kornhole brings nothing to the table. Nothing. Well almost nothing. At least it's somewhat entertaining when he calls out Thiesmann for ridiculous comments. Oh, and we're sick of hearing "I have him on my Fantasy Team!" every week. Either he's A) lying or B) purposely playing someone that plays on Monday night every single week JUST so he can say that. I'm not sure which is worse.

And speaking of the bad announcers, two things last night annoyed me. Well, three things. We know the Raiders are bad. We get it. No need to say it every 10 seconds.

Then going into halftime, they said "Well, at least the Raiders get the ball the second half." "Oh, that's about the only good thing I could say about their offense." See point one above. We get it. They're bad. But not only that, you're WRONG! Raiders got the opening kickoff. Seahawks got the ball to start the second half.

And lastly, late in the 4th quarter with the Raiders putting together some semblence of a drive, they face a 3rd and 20. Throw to Moss, who at first looks to make the catch rolling out of bounds. But nope, incomplete. He dropped it as he was falling out of bounds. They replayed this play about 6 ot 7 times. They talked about whether or not he caught it. They mentioned it again several times a little later on when pointing out how Moss had a bad game and didn't step up. But the thing they pretty much just glided right over was a pretty important fact: there was a penalty on the play. Illegal shift on Oakland. The play wouldn't have counted even had he caught it. SO THESE EFFIN MORONS SPENT LIKE 10 MINUTES ANALYZING AND REPAYING A NON-CATCH THAT WOULDN'T HAVE COUNTED ANYWAYS!!!! Ugh.

Hey, you know what would be a great idea? Get this: you should start a sports blog! Yeah, instead of sending emails to your friend Anonymous, you could post your thoughts on your sports blog! Then Anonymous and all of your other friends could read your blog and post comments too! It’s just like the email except everyone participates! Wow, I can’t believe we hadn’t thought of that before!

OK, enough smartassing. The reader has spoken and so here I am on Thursday night taking valuable family time to write my gambling predictions. Well, I’m writing and chatting with my wife so this could get interesting. Anyway, I’ve been meaning to write about Green Bay and low and behold my wife told a great story about the trip on her blog! So check out Mrs. Samichlaus's Blog by clicking here and I swear one of these days I’ll tell you all about meeting Fuzzy Thurston…..

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 7-7
St. Ides: 4-10

Overall:
Samichlaus: 51-47
St. Ides: 45-53

Bye weeks are over, woohooo! Full slate of 16 games every week from here on out...

EAGLES -6.5 over Redskins
Redskins got a win they needed badly last week against the Cowboys, but they're still going nowhere. Eagles got off to a great start, but have cooled off recently. Divisional game at home should be just what they need to get going again. Eagles 26, Skins 17.

The Redskins got a huge win last week against the Cowboys, a game I had a funny feeling about, and the mood in Redskin country has been somewhere between thrilled and ecstatic. I don’t think the Skins are good enough to beat Philly in Philly, but I think they keep it close. Eagles 27 Redskins 24


Niners +5.5 over LIONS
Let me beat him to it: "It's the Samichlaus Stinker of the Week!" Both teams are pretty bad, yet both teams beat "good" (and I use that term loosely) teams at home last week. Niners beat the Vikings, Lions beat the Falcons. Lions probably pull this out, but are bad enough to not cover. Lions 24, Niners 23.

Hey, ya got me! So I'll beat you to the posting.... Agreed, this one will have lower ratings than the Packer game. St. Ides nailed the Lions last week and got a win, and it was a big enough win to think they’ll do it again AND cover. Lions 24 Niners 17


VIKINGS -5.5 over Packers
Speaking of the Viqueens... Seems like just a few weeks ago I was telling a worried Anonymous that the Vikings suck. Their offense is awful. They only beat the Seahawks thanks to a horrendous defensive effort and Hasselbeck being knocked out of the game. And I think they showed it last week by laying an egg in San Fran. That said, their defense is decent, and may be enough to keep them in this game until that seemingly inevitable Favre turnover late in the game. I actually had the Packers game on last week when he threw that pick on the 1. Ouch. Take that away and the last second fumble against the Rams, and the Packers could be 5-3 right now. Vikings 17, Packers 10.

I watched an absolutely unbelievable Packer performance last week. They hands down dominated the Bills in every aspect of the game, except one: four motherfucking killer turnovers. The Favre interception that St. Ides saw was all Brett. He thought he could look off a veteran linebacker on a slant to Donald Driver (like they never run THAT play) and was easily picked. The other three turnovers? A botched snap by Scott Wells (who got a big contract extension this week), another botched snap by Scott Wells (who did I mention got a big contract extension this week?), and a terrible call on a first and goal play: a (wait for it) slant to Donald Driver that was well defended tipped and picked off. Here’s the thing with young teams: they are never as good or as bad as they look.

I want to believe the Packers can win this game, really, but (wait, my wife is dancing around the ironing board and exposing herself…. OK, shows over…. Where was I?) I know that they won’t. Even when they were good they had a hard time in Minnesota. The Viqueens are tough against the run and the Packers are thin at receiver. Jennings reinjured his ankle last week and is questionable, so look for a game plan of short to medium passes to the likes of Shawn Bodiford and Ruvel Martin. In fact, don’t be surprised if you see a slant or two to Donald Driver. Viqueens 31 Packers 24


FALCONS -7.5 over Browns
Who can figure out the frickin Falcons? Not me. Browns played the Chargers tough last week, but I can't trust them. Falcons 26, Browns 17.

I think the Falcons are more consistent at home and the Browns are less consistent on the road. I see the Falcons having all the answers for anything the Browns throw at them. Throw in ol’ drippy pecker playing like a decent QB and the Falcons win and cover. PS: know who the highest paid player in the NFL is? Mike Vick and his Sick Dick. Mr "So fucking sue me for giving you an STD": 31 Browns 17


Bills +11.5 over COLTS
Has anybody noticed the Colts aren't really blowing teams out this year? Yet they still give double-digit points almost every game? I'm too lazy to look it up, but I'm thinking they're probably only like 4-4 against the spread this year. Too many big points to cover. Colts 28, Bills 17.

I can’t begin to tell you how bad the Bills looked for 58 minutes last week. However, they had a really good 2 minutes and evidently that’s all you need to beat the Packers. That’s not going to be enough to beat the Colts. Did I mention that Willis McGay-hee is out? Colts win easy: Colts 41 Bills 10

Chiefs -0.5 over DOLPHINS
Dolphins got to enjoy beating the Bears last week. Chiefs had a pretty nice showing to win in St. Louis, not a real easy place to play. I'm kinda liking what the Chiefs offense is doing right now, and suddenly my 8-1 odds for them to win the AFC don't seem so crazy. A steady diet of Larry Johnson with throws over the middle to a wide open Tony Gonzalez all day long. Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20.

Well I guess we were a little off on last weeks Dolphins game, eh? I’m thinking it’s a blip on the radar, and the Fins will go back to sucking eggs this week. Meanwhile the Chiefs have picked it up on the road and I’m kinda liking it too. Chiefs 24 Dolphins 17

PATRIOTS -10.5 over Jets
I get the funny feeling the Patriots will come out ready to take care of business after that debacle against the Colts. Patriots 31, Jets 10.

I agree: the Pats will win but I have a funny feeling about that half point… The Jets keep on keeping ‘em close and that’s good enough for me. Pats 30 Jets 20


BENGALS +1.5 over Chargers
This one follows the rule of "most desperate team". Bengals NEED to start winning or else they're not making the playoffs. Carson Palmer may be the best young quarterback in the league, but that injured knee has effected his mobility, and he's a sitting duck behind an underachieving offensive line. At least Shawn "I didn't know my supplemants contained illegal stuff" Merriman is sitting this out. Chargers are a damn good team, but the fact they let the Browns stick around last week makes me nervous. Bengals 27, Chargers 24.

I like the Bolts for several reasons. First, that bad knee is not only affecting Palmer’s mobility, it’s affecting his throwing motion. He’s not the same QB he was last year. Second, I’m betting that the Browns anomaly last week was a team playing down to the level of the competition. Young teams do that from time to time and the Chargers are a young team, I’m going with the Bolts: Chargers 31 Bengals 27


JAGUARS -10.5 over Texans
Last week I took the Titans and a crapload of points against the Jaguars. The Jags covered by like 30 points. I'll go the other way this week behind David Garrard or however you spell it. Maybe Leftwich was the reason why they didn't blow out these weak divisional opponents when they should have. Jaguars 32, Texans 20.

I’m getting tired of trying to figure out these two teams. David Carr keeps playing well, but that supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired. The Jags meanwhile impressed without the still injured Leftwich who I heard may be more injured than he’s letting on to. I’ll take the Jags at home: Jags 34 Texans 20

Broncos -9.5 over OAKLAND
Wow, the Raiders couldn't block anybody Monday night. Andrew Walter was getting hit from every side, and that was only with 4 rushing on several of the 9 sacks. 3rd string DE Craig Terrill had THREE sacks! Anyways, don't expect Oakland to do much of anything against this defense. Broncos 20, Raiders 3.

Okie dokie, do we agree now that the Raiders are god awful? Denver meanwhile has played better on the road and that’s enough for me. PS: Art Shell, not Joe Gibbs, is the worst coach in the NFL. Period. Broncos 37 Oakland13

Saints +3.5 over STEELERS
I'm still not quite convinced that the Saints are for real. But I'm pretty sure the Steelers are done. Saints 20, Steelers 17

I like the Saints here as well, but don’t count the Steelers out. If they’d only smarten up a bit and give the ball to Najeh Trenadius Monte Davenport. Well at least my wife would be happy (update: she sitting on the couch taking a cigarette break, listening to club mix that sounds eerily like the stuff they play at those chick clothing stores like “The Limited”… OK, back to ironing… no more titty sightings) I’ll take the Saints and the points: Steelers 24 Saints 23


Rams +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
No Hasselbeck. No Alexander. Seneca Wallace has played well so far, and the Rams aren't exactly a top defense. But the Seattle defense might be worse. And if this is a shootout (and games between these two usually are), I'll take Marc Bulger over Seneca Wallace. Only way the Seahawks win this game is if their defense plays as well as they did against the Raiders. And I don't see that happening. Rams 30, Seahawks 23.

I’ll go with St. Ides here. Even with the 12th man (that amazingly loud fan base… it’s got to be the coffee) Seattle is simply outmanned. The Rams pull the upset: Rams 31 Seahawks 21


CARDINALS +6.5 over Cowboys
Did you see TO dropping those passes last week? Including a sure TD? He sucks. Cardinals actually have a decent defense (keep in mind that when they blew that game against the Bears, it wasn't the defenses fault - it was turnovers by the offense and a punt return allowed on special teams). I like Tony Romo, and Leinart will probaby be getting his ass kicked all game. But I'll take the home points. Cowboys 23, Cardinals 17.

I’d love to get that sound bite of Tony Romo doing his Brett Favre impression… I like the kid too, he’s got some spunk. Meanwhile, I don’t know which Cardinals D is going to show up: the one that held the Bears in check or the one we saw Green Bay have its way with. Oh, and admit it, you know there’s going to be more Cowboy fans in the stands than Cardinal fans…. Boys 34 Birds 17

Bears +2.5 over GIANTS
Giants are without Strahan, Toomer, and now it looks like Plaxico Burress could be out too. I think that Osi guy is hurt too. Urlacher should be fine for the Bears. Bears should be ashamed of how they played last week. Grossman is still young and mistake prone is pressured. Problem with all the injuries is will they be able to get that pressure? Probably not. And Eli in primetime in a big game? He's a Manning. Nuff said. Bears 20, Giants 17.

Holy shit are the Giants banged up. Not only is Burress questionable but so is Sam Madison and Sinorice Moss amongst others. The Bears are going to be ready to play Sunday, while the Giants are hobbling. I’m rooting for the G-men but I’m betting on the Bears: Bears 17 Giants 13

Bucs +9.5 over PANTHERS
This game probably looked great on the schedule at the beginning of the year. Now? Not so much. Panthers are ridiculously inconsistent all around, and need this home win pretty badly against a divisional rival. I think think the Bucs keep it close. Panthers 27, Bucs 20.

Fuck, I don’t know. You think the Bucs will keep it close? Who am I to argue? I’m getting tired and this club music is giving me a headache, plus my ass itches and we’re out of Preparation H. Getting older totally sucks. What in living fuck are my 50’s and 60’s going to be like??? I shouldn’t complain though, my wife IS doing the ironing. Panthers 27 Bucs 23


Ravens -7.5 over TITANS
I'm jumping on the "Brian Billick - Offensive Genius" bandwagon now while there's still room. And before Steve McNair gets hurt, which brings Kyle Boller back in at QB. Who woulda thunk the Ravens would be running away with the AFC North? Ravens 33, Titans 16.

Man, that Ray Lewis just keeps killing ‘em you know? Yeah, gotta say I didn’t see this coming either, but I’m officially on the bandwagon. I’ll take the Ravens and the points: Ravens 34 Titans 20

Peace out from the Capital of the Confederacy and points north....

Week 9 Picks (In Two Acts) (Second Act now available!)

Back to reality. Just in case anybody thought after the previous week's uncanny 11-2 performance that maybe I'd figured things out a bit and knew what I was doing, here's a nice 4-10 record to prove I don't. I did pick 4 of the teams to win, but I expected them to not cover. Not that it matters, but yeah, my picks weren't really as bad as the record indicates, I just bought into the "take the points" idea a bit too much this week. Damn favorites are covering a lot so far this season.

This week doesn't get any easier, with 4 spreads of 9 points or more. Oh, and this is the last week with bye teams, so full schedules start again next week! And I think that whole "flexible Monday night game" thingy kicks in soon too, with the first game being Bears at Giants in a few weeks. I hope the Bears lose at some point. I'm sick of people kissing their ass.

"And that's why they call it gambling"... Felix Unger

The trip to Green Bay was invigorating for the Samichlaus family, as evidenced by my return to winning ways. We're at the midway point in the season and things are shaking out just as St. Ides said they would: unpredicatbly. We get half of 'em right and half of 'em wrong...

As far as the Bears are concerned: they'll lose to the Giants and NewEngland, they may lose to the Jets, and the Packers have a shot in Soldier Field the last week in December...

Last Week:
Samichlaus: 9-5
St. Ides: 4-10

Overall:
Samichlaus: 44-40
St. Ides: 41-43

Cowboys -3.5 over REDSKINS
Stick a fork in the Skins, they're done. Cowboys looked awful for 3 quarters last week, then somehow the much-praised Panthers defense fell apart and allowed a QB in his first NFL start to rip them apart. At one point during the game, the announcers were talking about how Romo grew up idolizing Favre. How when the Cowboys signed the o-lineman Rivera, Romo was pestering him about what it was like to play with Favre. And the announcers mentioned how Romo does a great impression. A few minutes later, they cut to a pre-recorded clip of the aforementioned impersonation. I have to say, it was pretty funny. I like Romo now. I still hate Parcells and TO though. But anyways, Brunell is toast, the Skins defense is garbage,and Gibbs will be back into retirement soon. Cowboys 27, Redskins 16.

I'm starting to believe that Joe Gibbs may be the worst coach in football. I live in Redskins country and what I'm hearing is that "Gibbs should call the plays" and "the assistant coaches are killing the team". That's secret code for "the head coach is doing a terrible job, but we can't admit it". With that said, I know the Skins are fired up this week. I think St. Ides's analysis is dead on, but I have a funny feeling about this.... Skins 24 Boys 23.

GIANTS -12.5 over Texans
I keep taking the huge spreads, and more often than not, the teams have covered. I don't have exact numbers, but it seems every time I take 10+ points, the team loses by like 40. Giants somehow found their groove. Texans have not. Giants 30, Texans 10.

The G-Men are pretty dinged up, and that's enough to keep this game close. The Texans are experiencing growing pains, and are moving to a cold climate, but are otherwise healthy. Giants by 10, not by 12.5 Giants 31 Texans 21

BEARS -13.5 over Dolphins
I took the Niners +16.5 over the Bears last week. I think it was something like 63-3 at halftime. I'm not making that mistake again. Not just one week later. Bears 69, Dolphins 0.

That's an absurd prediction and you know it. Bears 71 Dolphins 3

LIONS +5.5 over Falcons
Falcons have looked great. Vick is running wild and actually finding the open receiver (9 times out of 10, that's Alge Crumpler) for long passes. They're due for a little bit of a letdown game I think, and the Lions aren't really that bad... Are they? Falcons 26, Lions 21.

Yep, they are that bad. The Falcons convinced me that they can win on the road so I'm officially on the bandwagon. Vicks Sick Dangling Prick 27 Lions 17

Packers +3.5 over BILLS
The Packers are the only team in the league with 3 wins. Exactly 3 wins that is. They're also only one game worse than the Seahawks. Who woulda thunk? Seems Favre is starting to find his groove again. Not sure I'm ready to say the defense looks good, but not getting lit up by the Cardinals is a good sign. The Bills offense isn't very good, and their defense is having something of a youth movement. The Pack is heating up, maybe they can start thinking playoffs! The NFC is wide frickin open. Packers 24, Bills 17.

The Packers have never won in Buffalo. In fact I saw them get their asses kicked there in September of 2000. However they are an improving team. For one, the O line is mastering the zone blocking techinique and is opening up the running game. Last week both Ahman Green and Vernon Morency each rushed for 100 yards. The defense is playing better now that Ahmad Carroll is gone and Brett Favre is having fun (It was a thrill to be able to see Favre's first "Lambeau Leap" in person). Favre's been making better decisions in the passing game and gets back rookie sensation Greg Jennings who missed our game due to injury. Jennings, who is still in some pain, had this to say: ""I think I'll be able to go. I've been getting off the jam, which was the biggest issue going into the Arizona game. Every day I run on it, I'm sore. But that's to be expected. There's nobody in this league that's playing that's 100%. It's something I'm going to have to play with for the rest of the season." I love this kid. Is JP Losman still starting foir the Bills? Good. Packers 27 Bills 17

BUCS +1.5 over Saints
So maybe the Saints illusion has been shattered by the Ravens last week. Reggie Bush hurt his ankle too, though he's expected to play. Meanwhile the Bucs looked like they might have some life in them, before the Giants spanked them in the Meadowlands. Tough game to call, but I'm going with the idea the Saints aren't as good as their record, and the Bucs aren't as bad as theirs. Bucs 20, Saints 17.

Here's a hot news flash: as I predicted, Reggie Bush has not been an impact player. The Saints winning ways have more to do with a good D and Drew Brees. I like the Saints on the road against a team I just have no respect for. Saints 24 Bucs 2o

Chiefs +2.5 over RAMS
Let's play a little "who beat who" logic game, shall we? Chiefs beat the Seahawks. Seahawks beat the Rams. Chiefs beat the Chargers. Chargers spanked the Rams. Yes, both those Chiefs wins were in KC, where they have a big home field advantage. But the loss to Seattle was in their dome. Oh, and the Rams have one of the league's worst run defenses. Larry Johnson is just getting warmed up. The Chiefs D isn't exactly great, but the Rams will be lucky if they force 3 punts all game. Chiefs 37, Rams 35.

Trent Green is out for the Chiefs so that leaves Damon Hooha, err Huard, to run the team. Chiefs are 1-2 on the road. Rams are 2-1 at home. Rams are relatively healthy... Rams 34 Chiefs 27

RAVENS -3.5 over Bengals
The Bungles laid an egg at home against the Falcons. The Ravens just went in and kicked the Saints heineys in New Orleans. Brian Billick fired his friend and offensive coordinator Jim Fassel and called the plays last week. And everybody is crediting him for the offensive explosion. McNair played well enough (though he did get lucky a couple passes weren't picked off, including one of his touchdown passes that deflected off the hands of two defenders). Anyways, I'll buy into it for now. But just barely. Ravens 19, Bengals 13.

The Bengals and Carson Palmer are having a bit of a slump. St. Ides has this one nailed: the Ravens at home against a slumping Bengals team equals a win and a cover: Ravens 24 Bengals 19

Titans +9.5 over JAGUARS
Let's not forget the Jaguars lost to the Texans recently. For some reason, the Jaguars always have close games against their divisional rivals. Against the Colts, that's good, since you're keeping pace with one of the league's best teams. With the Texans and Titans.. that's not such a good thing. Jaguars 23, Titans 17.

Here lies the Samichlaus Stinker of the Week: two teams that I could not care less about. One is 4-3 while the other is 2-4. That's a good observation about the Jags playing it close against their division rivals, so I'll go with that as well. Titans cover.... Jags 26 Titans 20

NINERS +5.5 over Vikings
As I was telling Anonymous all last week, the Vikings are not that good. Then the Patriots proved it. They should have lost to the Lions but their defense saved them. They needed an awful game and a backup QB to beat Seattle. I think they can easily lose this game outright. Niners 20, Vikings 17.

San Fran's two wins came at home and I think that may be good enought to keep it close. Of course, Brad Johnson usually doesn't do anything to beat himself... I'll take San Fran and the points: Vikings 24 San Francisco 23.

CHARGERS -12.5 over Browns
Browns offense finally showed a pulse against the Jets. But even with Merriman out, the Chargers defense is decent. I'm tempted to take all those points and say there will be a garbage time TD to prevent the Chargers from covering... But I'll play it safe. Chargers 27, Browns 13.

I agree with the pick. The big difference is going to be the home field. And let me say for the record that without anybody's assistance or opinions, I believe that Philip Rivers is the best young quarterback in the league. I'll take the Bolts: San Diego 34 Browns 17

Broncos +2.5 over STEELERS
Look! It's the Super Bowl loser curse! Oh wait, the Steelers won... But yeah, Big Ben's disguise as a talented young QB is melting away quickly. Broncos have a good chance to bounce back after Manning had his way with them in Denver. Cowher doesn't have the jaw-jut going this year, and it's almost as if he's already thinking about his retirement after the season. No way do the Steelers make the playoffs. Broncos 26, Steelers 16.

That damn brain trauma is a sonofabitch, ain't it Ben? The Broncos are in a tight battle against the aforementioned Chargers and are now the more desperate team. I think it's time they make a statement game and prove once and for all that they don't suck on the road. Denver 27 Pittsburgh 20

PATRIOTS -2.5 over Colts
Here's what I wrote to Anonymous the other day:

"I'd lean towards Indy too, but just barely. When was the Broncos game, like Week 2 or 3? Brady was in still in disbelief that they traded Branch, and was clearly not comfortable with the receivers he had left. I think it's safe to say he's settled in with them now.

Despite Manning finally winning one against Brady last year, keep in mind he is still one of the biggest choke artists out there when it comes to big games. And no, I don't really consider last week's game a "big game". The Colts own the Broncos for some reason. So if the Colts lost, in Denver, it wouldn't mean much. However, if they lose to the Patriots YET AGAIN, it'll make that one win last year seem like a fluke. This game is much more important for the psyche of the Colts than the Patriots. Which is why they'll likely choke, and are getting points.

Remember, Vegas isn't stupid. If the Patriots were getting points at home, everybody would take them. I mean, when was the last time the Pats got points at home? I'm thinking it had to be pre-Brady."

So I pretty much think Manning still kinda sucks when it really matters. Does this game REALLY matter? No. But in his mind, it probably does. Because he's still the #2 QB in the league in the mind of most people. Oh, and for an added wrinkle, let's throw in a missed Vinatieri kick with a chance to go to OT as the clock expires. Patriots 23, Colts 20.

I have to admit, I'm excited to see this game as well. I might have to TiVo it... OK, so here's the deal: The Colts have been their consistant dominant selves this season. They tend to also be a second half team. Look at the stats: they've had pedestrian first halves and then twisted sick second halves that blow away their opponents. That's not going to happen agains the Pats.

The Pats meanwhile have come into their own and are peaking. Their performance last week was one of the most dominating performances I've ever seen a team put on in some one else's back yard. Not only am I rooting for the Patriots to beat Indy (and injure Peytie Pie... something minor to keep him out a week and break his streak) but I'm picking them as well: Pats 24 Colts 20

Raiders +7.5 over SEAHAWKS
Forget the reverse jinx stuff. I'm actually worried about this game. No Hasselbeck. No Alexander. The defense looks as bad as it has in like 3 years. The Raiders defense is actually better than people might think, at least statistically. And the Raiders have Randy Moss, who should be good for 1-3 catches of 40+ yards against this horrible secondary. Awful. Not to mention the whole "Old AFC West Rivalry" thing they'll be playing up the whole game. And I'm sure we'll see the clip of Bo Jackson running over Bosworth during a Monday night game like 15 years ago. I just hope this time it's not LaMont Jordan running over Tatupu. But really, I am worried about this game and this team. I'm not trying to work the reverse jinx here. If I were, I'd admit it. Seahawks 27, Raiders 26.

Are they still showing that clip? Christ. Why the hell don't they show clips of Jim Zorn for that matter. OK, I admit that the Seahawks are reeling from their injuries, but have you seen your 2006 Oakland Raiders? I still can't believe they've won two. They beat the Cardinals dispite 5 turnovers and beat the Steelers dispite a total offensive (and I do mean offensive) outburst of 98 yards. Their luck can't last forever... Seahawks 27 Raiders 10