Enough with the crickets! The only crickets I've heard around here was when I was blogging my ass off during the Packers Giants game. Did any of our loyal readers choose to participate? chirp * chirp * chirp * chirp * OK, enough about that. Let talk a little about the game from a Packers fan's perspective...
As I re-read my game day blog, it was obvious what was transpiring. The theme that carried through the posts was "The Packers need to get started, but man the Giants are playing well", and to quote an earlier post: simply put, the better team won. The Giants were absolutely flying to the ball, while the Packers played flat. The cold seemed to affect Favre more than Eli Manning, who by the way had a great game. I wonder if Favre's age is catching up to him? I saw a film of the last interception: Favre had Jennings open downfield, Grant open for a short first down and Lee open over the middle. He chose to to Driver, who was tigtly covered, and who out of his four choices was the worst possible choice.
Now that some time has passed and the bitterness of the defeat has worn off, I can honestly say that I'm already looking forward to next season, and its all because of my wife...
Towards the end of the game, when we both new the Packers were going to lose, Mrs. Samichlaus said the following: "It's better if they lose". I really didn't get that at first but she explained further.
"They're a young team. They're not ready. That's obvious! If they win this game, they'll go to the Super Bowl and lose to New England. Then they'll say "We were supposed to lose" and that would be the end of it. But losing at home to the Giants? This is going to stick with them all through the offseason. And next year, they're going to be hungry."
What really amazed me was that she came up with that while the game was on. And damn if it didn't make perfect sense.
In the end I was still depressed with the Packers loss. It took me a few days to get over it, and it helped that I've been inundated on my project at work. But what helped the most was Mrs. Samichlaus's words. And not just the words I mentioned above, but the words she said when the game was over...
"You know", she said, "If he comes back and plays one more year, I think we should go see him"
I love my wife!
Friday, January 25, 2008
Sunday, January 20, 2008
That's enough
This game is waaaaayyyyyyy too good. I'm signing off for the night, and will be blogging more this week (win or lose).
Packers score!
Finally, we get a huge call to keep a drive alive. I didn't see Sam Madison throw Vernon Morency to the ground, but judging by the reactions on both sides, it was a good call. Giants got a good runback so here we go again
More good play from the Giants...
...and an embarrasing showing from the Packer D. Four penalties, including two offsides. The Packers are going to need to adjust their D and get Al Harris some help. Their Offense needs to answer the Giants with an impressive drive of their own.
Who's the home team?
The Giants have gotten 2 huge calls to keep the drive alive. Al Harris can't guard Burress. The Giants need to keep going to Burress, not that I want to give them advice or anything. Giants are pounding the ball, and the Packers D line is starting to falter.
Half time
This is a much closer game than I expected. The Giants are clearly outplaying the Packers, but on the strenght of one big play the Packers have the lead. I'm curious as to what the time of possession is, but I imagine the Giants have a huge advantage. Plaxico Burres is dominating Al Harris, and Charles Woodson has been knocked on his ass several times.
OK, after 20 years in broadcasting, Terry Bradshaw doesn't know to keep the microphone in front of his mouth.
Time of possession: NYG 18:13 GB 11:47
OK, after 20 years in broadcasting, Terry Bradshaw doesn't know to keep the microphone in front of his mouth.
Time of possession: NYG 18:13 GB 11:47
The Packers running game
The Packers can't seem to get their running game going. I'm not sure if the Giants are simply beating the Packers O-line or if the O line is missing their blocks but Ryan Grant is getting nowhere first. Packers just caught a break on an illegal contact call. Packers have no offensive continuity. Know what? The Giants are playing great defense. Ryan Grant just ran for one and it looked like a huge gain
Like that, for example
That's more like it. Donald Driver still has track star speed. Corey Webster was closing on Driver when Driver found an extra gear and sprinted the remainder of 90 yards for the score. Packers lead 7-6.
Giants go up 6-0
After another efficient drive, the Giants are up 6-0. The Packers need to answer the Giants with an effective drive, and they need to put 7 on the board. Right now the Giants seem to have a better game plan, and seem like the more well coached team.
End of the first quarter
The Giants continue to impress. If Armani Toomer doesn't drop an easy pass, their last possession could have gone very different. Meanwhile the Packers can't seem to get anything going on offense, and I'm beginning to wonder what the game plan is. The Pack needs to start throwing 5 - 10 yards downfield, but so far they shown a shovel pass and two quick outs that went nowhere. Jones drops third and 5 but would have been short
Giants score...
This is a great drive by the Giants. The Packers seem to be playing a soft middle, and Eli is making them pay. The Giants run game has not been effective, but the short passing game has been spot on. The Giants score first, and the Packers are lucky to get away with 3. Sorry, I just had to rewind the best Bud Light commercial I've seen in a long time: "Talking to animals".
First Drive...
That was dissapointing. A few quick first downs, followed by two poor throws by Favre. On the third and 9, Driver was wide open and Favre just flat out missed him. Let's see what the new and improved Eli Manning can do...
Jimmy's hair
Normally I would have postulated that Jimmy Johnson is pretty toasted, because he's acting like a buffoon, but the truth of the matter is it's really cold out there and Jimmy is no spring chicken. That bandanna he's wearing is fucking up his hair, and that's the first time I've ever seen that (Including after the "Gatoraid bath").
Pregame blog
Congratulations to the New England Patriots, who as expected defeated the Bolts. As expected, Lawrence Maroney was the difference maker with a huge second half that effectively killed any hopes that San Diego might have had.
Watching Junior Seau speaking now... he sounds a bit whacky, doesn't he?
Vitals at Green Bay: Temp -1, wind is light- 9 mph from the south west. See you after kickoff, gotta finish my bratwurst.
Watching Junior Seau speaking now... he sounds a bit whacky, doesn't he?
Vitals at Green Bay: Temp -1, wind is light- 9 mph from the south west. See you after kickoff, gotta finish my bratwurst.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
SBS Announces an official game day blog!
Be sure to log into SBS for a game day blog starting Sunday evening at 6:30. Ol' Samichlaus will be writing, chatting, and providing overall enhancement of your game watching experience as the Packers host the New York Football Giants. Comments and participation are welcome!!!!
Friday, January 18, 2008
Divisional Championship Weekend!
First, let me say it’s great to be back. I want to thank our readers for their patience and support this week as I slogged through more project stuff here in the beautiful New York State Capital region. What a supportive bunch you are. You motherfuckers. While I’m banished to the consultant equivalent of Siberia, apparently the biggest pain points in your cushy little sister-went-to-Union-College worlds is the lack of reading material on this blog. So who am I to cause such angst? Lets agree to forgive St. Ides who deserves a proper mourning period. It’s all Samichlaus’s fault.
Enough vitriol.
A special snout-shout out goes to my wife, the beautiful Mrs. Samichlaus, also known by her blogger stage name “Ki KI”. If I didn’t have her to fight my battles I don’t know what I’d do. To quote James J. Braddock, “Ain’t she somethin’?”
So, I don’t know about anyone else around here, but goddamnit I am so ready for some football…
Let’s start with the Patriots vs. the Chargers.
Pats win,37-10. Nuff said.
Admit it. The Giants vs. the Packers is the premier game on Sunday, which is why the NFL scheduled it for the late kickoff. Now relax, this doesn’t mean the NFL is disrespecting a certain someone’s beloved Patriots. The truth is the Pats – Chargers just isn’t a very interesting matchup. Banged up Bolts vs. Picture of Health Pats? Norv Turner vs. Bill Belichick? Phillip (cry me a) Rivers vs. Tom Brady? Randy Moss vs. that Sarasota woman who has a restraining order against him? Whoopsie! Ol’ Randy just couldn’t keep out of trouble for a year now could he? How does one “accidentally” batter a woman? Anyway, here’s my take on the Packers / Giants and if you’ve heard this all before it’s because I’m a little late getting around to this, and all the smart sports bloggers have already written.
First and foremost, nothing that happened in the first meeting between these teams is of any value in the analysis of this game. Repeatedly we’ve heard all week “these are two different teams” and that essentially is true. Say what you want about Eli Manning but the young Manning has matured this season (want to try something cool? Re-read that sentence but do it in Howard Cosell voice. It works!). He is making quick decisions and crisp throws, and his team believes in him as a leader. Although he doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps, they are serviceable and pretty much catch everything thrown their way. Brandon Jacobs, the 265 lb running back is strong and remarkably agile for a man his size. Compare his physical stats to Nick Barnett, who goes about 235 soaking wet, and you’ll quickly understand the Giants game plan. In order to defeat the Packers, the Giants have to control the ball, and with Jacobs and the serviceable receiving corps they certainly have the personnel to accomplish this.
A lot has been written this week about the weather. If you haven’t heard, game time high temperature is expected to be a balmy 4 degrees. I don’t even want to guess what the wind chill is going to be. Most feel as though these conditions will favor the Packers but I disagree. When the Packers played the Bears in similar conditions at Soldier Field it was obvious the Packers didn’t want to be there. While the Bears sat on their bench, the Packers huddled around the heaters with these horrified looks on their faces. Brett Favre included. In the end it was all Bears. The truth is this Packer team doesn’t like the cold, and I’m not talking about last Saturday’s game against the Seahawks. To quote Mike McCarthy, “30 degrees with snow and no wind is a nice day in Wisconsin in January. 4 degrees is something completely different”. In fact, this kind of weather favors a team with a 265 lb running back that can hammer the living shit out of whoever tries to tackle him, including Atari Bigby and his 211 lbs. Of course, the mitigating factor here is Eli Manning. I saw a chart the other day that showed how dramatically Eli’s production drops off when the weather gets cold (at 30 degrees or less his QB rating was somewhere below 60), so Eli ain’t gonna be exactly slinging it.
I imagine the Packers know this.
I don’t expect a high scoring game. The cold weather will negate a lot of the Packers passing game. TE Donald Lee might not catch a pass, but Bubba Franks will. As far as the rest of the receivers go, my thought is there are going to be some easy drops, but there is yet another mitigating factor: according to the Milwaukee Journal – Sentinel, Donald Driver spoke to “his receiving corps” and essentially asked them to get him to the Super Bowl. The receivers all agreed to put the game on their backs. The last time I heard something like this was the Monday night game after Favre’s dad croaked. One can never tell how a pact like this will affect the team.
The Packers O line will have its work cut out for them. Everyone is well aware of how good and fast the Giants D is. Osi Umenyoria is arguably the best pass rushing lineman in the game (with all due respect to Patrick Kearney), and was an absolute beast the last 5 minutes of the Dallas game. Michael Strahan has also been playing lights out, although the Packers Mark Tauscher has never had a problem with him. I expect that this matchup will be similar to the Seattle game, with the Packers ultimately prevailing.
OK, so lets get down to it. This game will be close for the first half, with the Packers going into halftime with a 7 point lead. In the second half, the Packers will open it up. Forced to play from behind, Eli Manning will throw a key interception early in the 4th quarter to essentially ice it for the Pack. The Packers defense will force a fumble late in the 4th to clinch the game, and SBS becomes THE site for all your Packers – Patriots Super Bowl vitriolic spew (and analysis)
Packers 27 Giants 17
Enough vitriol.
A special snout-shout out goes to my wife, the beautiful Mrs. Samichlaus, also known by her blogger stage name “Ki KI”. If I didn’t have her to fight my battles I don’t know what I’d do. To quote James J. Braddock, “Ain’t she somethin’?”
So, I don’t know about anyone else around here, but goddamnit I am so ready for some football…
Let’s start with the Patriots vs. the Chargers.
Pats win,37-10. Nuff said.
Admit it. The Giants vs. the Packers is the premier game on Sunday, which is why the NFL scheduled it for the late kickoff. Now relax, this doesn’t mean the NFL is disrespecting a certain someone’s beloved Patriots. The truth is the Pats – Chargers just isn’t a very interesting matchup. Banged up Bolts vs. Picture of Health Pats? Norv Turner vs. Bill Belichick? Phillip (cry me a) Rivers vs. Tom Brady? Randy Moss vs. that Sarasota woman who has a restraining order against him? Whoopsie! Ol’ Randy just couldn’t keep out of trouble for a year now could he? How does one “accidentally” batter a woman? Anyway, here’s my take on the Packers / Giants and if you’ve heard this all before it’s because I’m a little late getting around to this, and all the smart sports bloggers have already written.
First and foremost, nothing that happened in the first meeting between these teams is of any value in the analysis of this game. Repeatedly we’ve heard all week “these are two different teams” and that essentially is true. Say what you want about Eli Manning but the young Manning has matured this season (want to try something cool? Re-read that sentence but do it in Howard Cosell voice. It works!). He is making quick decisions and crisp throws, and his team believes in him as a leader. Although he doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps, they are serviceable and pretty much catch everything thrown their way. Brandon Jacobs, the 265 lb running back is strong and remarkably agile for a man his size. Compare his physical stats to Nick Barnett, who goes about 235 soaking wet, and you’ll quickly understand the Giants game plan. In order to defeat the Packers, the Giants have to control the ball, and with Jacobs and the serviceable receiving corps they certainly have the personnel to accomplish this.
A lot has been written this week about the weather. If you haven’t heard, game time high temperature is expected to be a balmy 4 degrees. I don’t even want to guess what the wind chill is going to be. Most feel as though these conditions will favor the Packers but I disagree. When the Packers played the Bears in similar conditions at Soldier Field it was obvious the Packers didn’t want to be there. While the Bears sat on their bench, the Packers huddled around the heaters with these horrified looks on their faces. Brett Favre included. In the end it was all Bears. The truth is this Packer team doesn’t like the cold, and I’m not talking about last Saturday’s game against the Seahawks. To quote Mike McCarthy, “30 degrees with snow and no wind is a nice day in Wisconsin in January. 4 degrees is something completely different”. In fact, this kind of weather favors a team with a 265 lb running back that can hammer the living shit out of whoever tries to tackle him, including Atari Bigby and his 211 lbs. Of course, the mitigating factor here is Eli Manning. I saw a chart the other day that showed how dramatically Eli’s production drops off when the weather gets cold (at 30 degrees or less his QB rating was somewhere below 60), so Eli ain’t gonna be exactly slinging it.
I imagine the Packers know this.
I don’t expect a high scoring game. The cold weather will negate a lot of the Packers passing game. TE Donald Lee might not catch a pass, but Bubba Franks will. As far as the rest of the receivers go, my thought is there are going to be some easy drops, but there is yet another mitigating factor: according to the Milwaukee Journal – Sentinel, Donald Driver spoke to “his receiving corps” and essentially asked them to get him to the Super Bowl. The receivers all agreed to put the game on their backs. The last time I heard something like this was the Monday night game after Favre’s dad croaked. One can never tell how a pact like this will affect the team.
The Packers O line will have its work cut out for them. Everyone is well aware of how good and fast the Giants D is. Osi Umenyoria is arguably the best pass rushing lineman in the game (with all due respect to Patrick Kearney), and was an absolute beast the last 5 minutes of the Dallas game. Michael Strahan has also been playing lights out, although the Packers Mark Tauscher has never had a problem with him. I expect that this matchup will be similar to the Seattle game, with the Packers ultimately prevailing.
OK, so lets get down to it. This game will be close for the first half, with the Packers going into halftime with a 7 point lead. In the second half, the Packers will open it up. Forced to play from behind, Eli Manning will throw a key interception early in the 4th quarter to essentially ice it for the Pack. The Packers defense will force a fumble late in the 4th to clinch the game, and SBS becomes THE site for all your Packers – Patriots Super Bowl vitriolic spew (and analysis)
Packers 27 Giants 17
Monday, January 14, 2008
Reggie's Prayer?
Years ago when Reggie White was playing for the Packers, he starred in a low budget Christian movie called "Reggie's Prayer". He played Reggie Knox, a former football player who returns to his home town to coach the high school football team.
As an added bonus, Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre had a cameo, playing a father and son janitor team. I've never seen this movie, and up until a few moments ago I never saw the clip. It's so bad, its hysterical...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Next?
In the end, there was no doubt that the better team won. I heard some radio head say that the team with the one true superstar prevailed, but the reality was the Packers victory came down to so much more than the performance of Brett Favre. It was truly a team victory, a victory won at the line of scrimmage where the offensive line of the Packers exposed the overrated* Seahawks defensive front, and opened holes for the heretofore unheralded Ryan Grant that the most advanced TBM would be envious of...
I have to admit: five minutes into the game I had already started softening my depression with happy thoughts of "at least St. Ides is happy! Good for him!", and wondered how early on Monday would Anonymous be puking from the conciliatory fluff piece I was sure I would have to write. But then something happened: Brett Favre (as St. Ides predicted) kept his cool and Ryan Grant started holding on to the ball. It's hard to describe how dominant the Packers were from that point on, but the facts speak for themselves: six times the Packers took possession and six times they scored a touchdown. Ryan Grant set a franchise record with 201 yards rushing in less than ideal conditions while Greg Jennings led the receiving corps with 7 receptions for 60 + yards. Favre was accurate and poised, and Seattle had no answer for the Packers well balanced attack
On the other side of the ball, the defense was stellar. After spotting Seattle 14, the Packers D took the game on their collective shoulders and limited the Seahawks to 3 measly points. Atari Bigby, who earlier in the week had been fined by coach Mike McCarthy for arriving late to practice on Friday, had a monster game. Bigby absolutely crushed Marcus Pollard (causing a key fumble) and Bobby Ingram on consecutive possessions, putting the fear of God into D.J. Hackett. Hackett then dropped a key 3rd and 7 pass with Bigby in pursuit.
So lets get to my observations, shall we?
The first time I thought the Packers had a chance after the initial 4 minutes: The Packers had third and 7 from their own 48. Seattle blitzed 5 on a stunt. The Packers picked up the blitz, Favre stepped up, and hit James Jones for 31. It occurred to me that the O line looked pretty good.
Where's Pat? Seattle's All Pro Defensive lineman Patrick Kearney looked like the second coming of Reggie White against the Redskins last week, and I'm talking about the thin muscular USFL Reggie White at that. Of course, everybody knows that the Redskins O line isn't very good, right? Kearney's stats against Packer tackle Mark Tauscher? Tackles: 0 Assists: 0 Sacks:0 Passes Defended: 0 Quarterback Pressures: (wait for it).... 0. In all fairness to Kearney, that is the first time he's ever been shut out in his illustrious 142 game career. Pat Kearney is truely a great football player. He's just not as great as Mark Tauscher.
Where's Pat part deux: After the game Kearney said this: "I came in with a lot of respect for (Tauscher). I expected, like Brett said this week, for them to put two guys on me. That's what they did. I don't care how many blockers are on me, I expect to overcome it and I didn't and I'm disappointed in that." Uhh, sorry Pat, Taush had you one on one 75% of the time.
Let's get this over with: I'm sure that by Sunday night we'll all have heard about that amazing play Brett Favre made stumbling to his right and under handing the ball to Donald Lee for a key first down. I'm not going to wax poetic on this, only because there's enough main stream media guys to do that, but I will say this: On the way home from my father in-law's on Saturday, Mrs. Samichlaus and I were discussing the game. I told her that when Favre first came up he used to do that kind of stuff all the time, but that now a days it's almost second nature. "When Favre first started", I said, "no one had ever seen anything like him before". And then I said to her "You know, when I was growing up, my uncles used to talk about seeing DiMaggio play, or seeing Babe Ruth play, and how great a time it was. I am so glad that I got to see Brett Favre play in my lifetime. I'll take Favre over all of them". And then I had to be quiet, so I could wipe the tears from my eyes.
Just Checking: Is Anonymous puking yet?
Random Reactions to St. Ides's Random Predictions: Ryan Grant did indeed fumble. Twice. And come to think of it he really didn't look the same after that. Hasslebeck did try a few pump fakes and I found out later that Atari Bigby did bite both Marcus Pollard and Bobby Ingram after laying their sorry latte drinking asses out. Poor St. Ides. It sucks being right all the time.
The other I-Genius: Mike McCarthy is turning out to be a hell of a football coach. McCarthy had the youngest team in the NFL prepared and well coached, which is more than I can say for Mike Holmgren's team. McCarthy also showed patience with Ryan Grant which also turned out to be the right decision. I have to say, after the second fumble Mrs. Samichlaus was ready to climb through the TV and pull Grant herself out of the game. I didn't disagree.
Time sucks: Fat and triple chinned, Mike Holmgren has not aged gracefully. He's always had that walrus look about him but recently he's really let himself go to pot. I saw his post game interview last night on NFL Network and all I could think was "time to retire". Not because the guy can't coach (he can) but because it's apparantly killing him.
Most Overrated.... Seahawk: Marcus Pollard Announcer: Kenny Albert (with an honorable mention to "Goose". I actually like Siragusa, he's smart as a whip and knows his stuff, but he cares more about the shtick than the game) Packer: Not sure. Up to yesterday I would have said Bigby, but not any more. St. Ides is going to be having nightmares about that guy for a while. I'll leave this one up to the readers.
Biggest non-story story: The kicker with the hot pants. Turns out that Josh Brown was effective. He kicked a 29-yard field goal in the second quarter and came back in the third quarter with a 27-yard field goal. That turned out to be the Seahawks' last score of the day, making it 35-20.
Report from the zoo: I thought the officiating was terrific. The zebras (IMHO) made all the right calls, including the re-spot of Bubba Franks and the incomplete pass by Hasslebeck. I'd like to hear St. Ides thought on this...
Final thought: Mrs. Samichlaus asked me who I wanted the Packers to play next week. Without hesitating I said "Dallas". Sure, it would be great if the Giants had to come to Lambeau field to play us. That's an easier path to the Super Bowl. But my thought is this, Brett Favre has two things people hold against him: the interceptions, and he's never won in Dallas. I have no doubt the Packers can win in Dallas. What better way to exorcise one more demon that to get to the Super Bowl through fucking Texas.
* overrated by St. Ides
I have to admit: five minutes into the game I had already started softening my depression with happy thoughts of "at least St. Ides is happy! Good for him!", and wondered how early on Monday would Anonymous be puking from the conciliatory fluff piece I was sure I would have to write. But then something happened: Brett Favre (as St. Ides predicted) kept his cool and Ryan Grant started holding on to the ball. It's hard to describe how dominant the Packers were from that point on, but the facts speak for themselves: six times the Packers took possession and six times they scored a touchdown. Ryan Grant set a franchise record with 201 yards rushing in less than ideal conditions while Greg Jennings led the receiving corps with 7 receptions for 60 + yards. Favre was accurate and poised, and Seattle had no answer for the Packers well balanced attack
On the other side of the ball, the defense was stellar. After spotting Seattle 14, the Packers D took the game on their collective shoulders and limited the Seahawks to 3 measly points. Atari Bigby, who earlier in the week had been fined by coach Mike McCarthy for arriving late to practice on Friday, had a monster game. Bigby absolutely crushed Marcus Pollard (causing a key fumble) and Bobby Ingram on consecutive possessions, putting the fear of God into D.J. Hackett. Hackett then dropped a key 3rd and 7 pass with Bigby in pursuit.
So lets get to my observations, shall we?
The first time I thought the Packers had a chance after the initial 4 minutes: The Packers had third and 7 from their own 48. Seattle blitzed 5 on a stunt. The Packers picked up the blitz, Favre stepped up, and hit James Jones for 31. It occurred to me that the O line looked pretty good.
Where's Pat? Seattle's All Pro Defensive lineman Patrick Kearney looked like the second coming of Reggie White against the Redskins last week, and I'm talking about the thin muscular USFL Reggie White at that. Of course, everybody knows that the Redskins O line isn't very good, right? Kearney's stats against Packer tackle Mark Tauscher? Tackles: 0 Assists: 0 Sacks:0 Passes Defended: 0 Quarterback Pressures: (wait for it).... 0. In all fairness to Kearney, that is the first time he's ever been shut out in his illustrious 142 game career. Pat Kearney is truely a great football player. He's just not as great as Mark Tauscher.
Where's Pat part deux: After the game Kearney said this: "I came in with a lot of respect for (Tauscher). I expected, like Brett said this week, for them to put two guys on me. That's what they did. I don't care how many blockers are on me, I expect to overcome it and I didn't and I'm disappointed in that." Uhh, sorry Pat, Taush had you one on one 75% of the time.
Let's get this over with: I'm sure that by Sunday night we'll all have heard about that amazing play Brett Favre made stumbling to his right and under handing the ball to Donald Lee for a key first down. I'm not going to wax poetic on this, only because there's enough main stream media guys to do that, but I will say this: On the way home from my father in-law's on Saturday, Mrs. Samichlaus and I were discussing the game. I told her that when Favre first came up he used to do that kind of stuff all the time, but that now a days it's almost second nature. "When Favre first started", I said, "no one had ever seen anything like him before". And then I said to her "You know, when I was growing up, my uncles used to talk about seeing DiMaggio play, or seeing Babe Ruth play, and how great a time it was. I am so glad that I got to see Brett Favre play in my lifetime. I'll take Favre over all of them". And then I had to be quiet, so I could wipe the tears from my eyes.
Just Checking: Is Anonymous puking yet?
Random Reactions to St. Ides's Random Predictions: Ryan Grant did indeed fumble. Twice. And come to think of it he really didn't look the same after that. Hasslebeck did try a few pump fakes and I found out later that Atari Bigby did bite both Marcus Pollard and Bobby Ingram after laying their sorry latte drinking asses out. Poor St. Ides. It sucks being right all the time.
The other I-Genius: Mike McCarthy is turning out to be a hell of a football coach. McCarthy had the youngest team in the NFL prepared and well coached, which is more than I can say for Mike Holmgren's team. McCarthy also showed patience with Ryan Grant which also turned out to be the right decision. I have to say, after the second fumble Mrs. Samichlaus was ready to climb through the TV and pull Grant herself out of the game. I didn't disagree.
Time sucks: Fat and triple chinned, Mike Holmgren has not aged gracefully. He's always had that walrus look about him but recently he's really let himself go to pot. I saw his post game interview last night on NFL Network and all I could think was "time to retire". Not because the guy can't coach (he can) but because it's apparantly killing him.
Most Overrated.... Seahawk: Marcus Pollard Announcer: Kenny Albert (with an honorable mention to "Goose". I actually like Siragusa, he's smart as a whip and knows his stuff, but he cares more about the shtick than the game) Packer: Not sure. Up to yesterday I would have said Bigby, but not any more. St. Ides is going to be having nightmares about that guy for a while. I'll leave this one up to the readers.
Biggest non-story story: The kicker with the hot pants. Turns out that Josh Brown was effective. He kicked a 29-yard field goal in the second quarter and came back in the third quarter with a 27-yard field goal. That turned out to be the Seahawks' last score of the day, making it 35-20.
Report from the zoo: I thought the officiating was terrific. The zebras (IMHO) made all the right calls, including the re-spot of Bubba Franks and the incomplete pass by Hasslebeck. I'd like to hear St. Ides thought on this...
Final thought: Mrs. Samichlaus asked me who I wanted the Packers to play next week. Without hesitating I said "Dallas". Sure, it would be great if the Giants had to come to Lambeau field to play us. That's an easier path to the Super Bowl. But my thought is this, Brett Favre has two things people hold against him: the interceptions, and he's never won in Dallas. I have no doubt the Packers can win in Dallas. What better way to exorcise one more demon that to get to the Super Bowl through fucking Texas.
* overrated by St. Ides
Friday, January 11, 2008
Round 2! Divisional Playoffs!
Round two! Ding ding!
Can anybody remember a Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs where every single spread was more than a touchdown? It's pretty frickin crazy.
On Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday afternoon, they were talking about how the playoffs often come down to QBs and coaches. So they ranked the remaining ones. Let's do the same, shall we? (And for the record, this is pretty much how they had it too, maybe with one or two differences.. it's pretty cut and dry for the most part.)
QBs:
1) Brady
2) P. Manning
3) Favre
4) Hasselbeck
5) Romo
6) E. Manning
7) Garrard
8) Rivers
(One interesting thing there: You could also argue that the top 4 or 5 QBs on this list are the top 4 or 5 QBs in the league. Seems there aren't many top QBs sitting on the couch this postseason. Who's the best QB not playing? Brees? )
Coaches:
1) Belichick
2) Holmgren
3) Dungy
4) Coughlin
5) Del Rio
6) Phillips
7) McCarthy
8) Turner
Anyways, on to the picks...
Seahawks +7.5 over PACKERS
So since the reverse jinx has been put to rest, and Seattle won without it last week, let's stick with the reverse reverse jinx. (Also known as no jinx at all.)
Do I think Seattle can really win? Yes, I do. Will they? Probably not, but I'll take the points.
Here's the thing: Seattle is a much better team than their record indicates. There were only a handful of games this year where the whole team played a good game. Hell, even last week, Hasselbeck played pretty poorly, but they still won by 21. If they play as good as they can in all areas of the game, they can beat anybody. Yes, even the Patriots.
As strange as it may sound, I think this game might come down to playcalling and coaching. (Okay, maybe that doesn't sound too strange, but I don't say it often.) Both teams are considered "pass" offenses for the most part, though the Packers have done a nice job running the ball since this Ryan Grant kid has emerged. So what will the Packers try and do on offense? Do they throw the ball, and let Patrick Kerney and the hot Seattle pass rush get a chance to try and tee off on Favre? Or do they run the ball, which Seattle has been surprisingly stout against (including totally shutting down Clinton Portis last week)? A lot of people are predicting they'll try and run the ball and tire down the Seattle defense. Guess what. A lot of teams have tried that, and failed. Rookie DT Brandon Mebane has been excellent against the run since coming in for injured Chuck Darby around week 6. Their DEs are good against the run. Their LBs are good against everything. Their safeties are solid tacklers.
On the other side of the ball, it's almost the same situation, except Seattle's running game has been much worse. So do you think Holmgren sticks to what got them here, the pass? Or does he try and surprise them, and run more?
I don't know, but the pass/rush ratios for each team should be something to watch, and will tell a lot about how the game is going.
Another interesting matchup on both sides of the ball will be the pass-rushing DEs vs. the OTs. The Packers have Aaron Kampman and KGB against All-Pro Walter Jones and underrated Sean Locklear. (The article Samichlaus copied and pasted kind of dissed Locklear, but he's been very good the past few years.) The Seahawks have Kerney and Darryl Tapp going against what are supposed to be two pretty good tackles for the Packers (whose names I'm too lazy to look up right now... was Clifton one of them?)... Anyways, watch these matchups, and keep in mind that if any of the OTs look like they're struggling in pass protection, that could mean a RB or TE needs to be kept in to block. Last week, the Redskins were keeping in a TE AND a RB at times to help block Kerney. That means an easier job for the defense behind the line, since less receivers are running patterns. Also look for a lot of stunts from the d-lines, since the guards on both teams seem to be a weaker link than the tackles.
One thing assistant coach Jim Mora pointed out this week, and rightly so, is how dangerous the Packers receivers can be after the catch. He's right. The defenders need to wrap up Jennings and Driver (and even Donald Lee) immediately. They're dangerous with a bit of open space. (That said, so is Burleson on the other side of the ball.)
I could probably write another 10 paragraphs on this game, but it's already 1:30 and I know Anonymous is (not so) patiently waiting for this to appear, so just a couple more points:
Hasselbeck almost never has two bad games in a row. I look for him to be very sharp. (If he's not, I expect to hear after the game that his wrist is really pretty badly hurt...) Seattle has a lot more playoff experience than Green Bay does. Including several players who have actually beaten the Packers in Green Bay in the playoffs. (Burleson and Russell with the Vikings, Kerney with the Falcons.) So they're not unbeatable in the not-really-that-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Favre will need to remain disciplined and calm, as he has most of this season. Once the pressure starts getting to him, he can't revert to his gun-slinging mode, or else his mistakes WILL be turned into turnovers. Green Bay has a pretty solid defense. If they have weakness, I'd say it's at safety. Atari Bigby won the starting job from former Seahawk Marque Manuel, and looked good at times. But he also looked very bad. It he bits on play action and pump fakes, the big play behind him could be there.
It should be a good game. Even on paper and looking at the stats, the teams are very evenly matched. I think Hasselbeck hangs with Favre for most of the game, both defenses live up to their end of the bargains, and in the end, somehow, Mike Holmgren makes a decision, playcall, or adjustment that comes out ahead of what Mike McCarthy does.
Random Predictions:
* Leroy Hill chases down Ryan Grant from behind as he's looking for a hole, and knocks the ball out. Seattle recovers. Grant doesn't look quite the same after that play.
* Hasselbeck uses the same look-off and pump fake that worked against the Redskins last week for the go-ahead TD. This time, Atari Bigby bites.
* Tony Siragusa (yes, he'll be there) makes fun of Seattle kicker Josh Brown's widely publicized heated pants no less than 3 times. Brown responds by nailing 3 field goals without a miss.
Seahawks 30, Packers 27.
PATRIOTS -13.5 over Jaguars
The Jaguars really should have lost last week to a banged up and shaky Steelers team. Big Dumb Ben blew the game for the Steelers with 3 turnovers, including a horrible fumble while hanging onto the ball WAY too long when the Steelers had the ball with a chance to get in range for a winning field goal.
Defensively, the Jaguars are excellent against the run. Which doesn't matter a whole lot because the Patriots throw the ball mostly.
Offensively, the Jaguars are excellent running the ball. Fred Taylor can pound it and still has a decent burst, and Maurice Jones-Drew is the shifty (and fast) change of pace back who can also be very dangerous. A solid running game would usually cause problems for the Pats, since they can be run on. And the more you run on them, the more worn down their not-so-young defense begins to get. Usually. The problem with the Jaguars is that their passing game is shaky. David Garrard threw two interceptions against the Steelers. And do you know how many passes he completed to his own team? 9 completions. All game. That's pretty damn low. There have been QBs who've completed double that in absolute blizzards this season.
Oh, and I mentioned the Jaguars butter-fingered receivers last week, but their passing game was already so ineffective that it didn't really hurt them. So keep an eye on that again this week. They've gots the dropsies, I'm telling you.
So there's not a whole lot to really dissect here. The Pats can put 8 or 9 in the box and stop the run. And they can throw on the Jags at will.
One of the funnier things this week was Patriots safety Rodney Harrison STILL trying to play the "no respect" card. Let me find the quote... Here we go: "I don’t think everyone expects us to win it. I think a lot of people expect us to lose." Uhhhh, huh? Like who? Are you fucking kidding me? Last I checked, a two touchdown point spread pretty much means everyone expects you to WIN.
If that's what the Patriots need to get themselves fired up, some delusional idea that people expect them to lose, then maybe they are in trouble.
Anyways, Garrard will be overwhelmed by the Patriots defensive schemes, the stacked box will be able to contain the Jags running game, and basically I don't expect the Jaguars to do very much on offense. Which means the Patriots won't even need their usual 40+ points to win this one.
Stay tuned for next week, when Rodney Harrison says the Patriots get no respect and nobody expects them to beat the Colts in Foxboro. I can't wait!
Random Predictions:
* Interception by Teddy Brusci!
* Did I mention Wes Welker cost me a trip to my Fantasy Football playoffs with the horrible game he put up against the Ravens? Well, I'm in a playoff league where you can only use each player once, and I inserted Welker this week. Which will probably mean he stinks it up. Less than 5 catches, less than 50 yards.
* Maurice Jones-Drew takes a kickoff to the house!.... Only to have it called back on a sketchy holding penalty.
Patriots 27, Jaguars 10.
COLTS -9.5 over Chargers
I'll give Anonymous some credit in that he called that the Chargers/Titans game last week might be close. It was. And if Vince Young were a bit better and the Titans RB didn't have a key fumble inside the Chargers 10, we might have seen the Titans pull it out.
The Titans did almost everything right. They contained Tomlinson. They knocked Antonio Gates out of the ball game. They forced Phillip Rivers to beat them. Sadly, they forgot one thing - cover the fucking wide receivers. Despite the lack of big stats and not much attention, the Chargers actually have a decent WR pair in Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers. You cannot leave them open.
I look for the Colts defense to follow the same general gameplan, except they won't let the WRs beat them either. The Colts defense is actually pretty underrated. Safety Bob Sanders just won the Defensive Player of the Year award. (Patrick Kerney came in tied for second with Albert Haynesworth, but both were behind Sanders by 20+ votes.)
If you look at the above QB/Coach rankings, the Chargers have the worst QB and coach remaining. That should be enough to create a blowout environment.
Random Predictions:
* The announcers mention how great Bob Sanders is against the run at least 7 times.
* Tomlinson gets mostly contained in terms of yardage (under 60 rushing), yet still gets into the end zone.
* Phillip Rivers stinks it up so bad, we revisit the whole "Shouldn't they have kept Drew Brees?" debate.
Giants +7.5 over Cowboys
Did I mention Romo was in Mexico with Jessica Simpson last week? Did you TO has the infamous "high ankle sprain" and didn't practice until yesterday? Do you realize that Cowboys coach Wade Phillips has an awful record in the playoffs? Do you remember Romo's pedestrian performance in last year's playoffs in Seattle, when the Seahawk secondary actually employed a dude who had been a loan officer a few weeks prior to the game? And, let me ask, can you still picture the scene where Romo bobbled the snap for the potential game-winning field goal, and got chased down from behind at the 2 yard line?
Here's the thing: there's a TON of pressure on Romo and the Cowboys. There couldn't possibly be more. They're a touchdown favorite at home against a divisional rival they've already beaten twice this year. Eli Manning has been the poster boy for choke artists the past few seasons. (And even a few times this season.)
If the Cowboys lost this game it'll be a huge and complete letdown. Which is exactly why I think they will lose. Romo has faded down the stretch, exactly like last year. (Ironically, he made the Pro Bowl both seasons. Pro Bowl voting ends after week 14. And, both years, he's been pretty awful after week 14.) Everybody thinks he's the second coming of Favre. But to quote the immortal Denny Green, "You want to crown their ass, then crown them!"
Believe it or not, I'm starting to have a little faith in the Giants. They hung tough with the Patriots, and that might be just what they needed to build a little confidence. They pretty much dominated the Bucs last week. The offense had a smart game plan of keeping the passes short and not trying to challenge their quality cornerbacks up top.
A lot of what the Giants do on defense starts with their pass rush. We all know that Strahan and Uminoyurauraura are probably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league. They need to show up, and show up bigtime. Get Romo's happy feet going a bit, make sure you cover Jason Whitten, and jam/frustrate TO, and you could have a recipe for a win. If they don't get to Romo, he'll pick them apart.
I don't really trust Eli. But I don't trust Romo very much either. And here's the difference in this game: the Dallas secondary. All season I've been saying you can beat the Dallas safeties over the top. Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin (more on them in a moment) are not very good in coverage. No team has really taken advantage of this fact. (The Packers tried to before Favre got hurt, as he was unleashing bombs, but they were either off target or the defense expected it, because it didn't work.) I think that Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer complement each other nicely, and should be able to get open consistently all day. The question is whether or not Eli can hit them. And I'm saying he does. Enough to win.
So about Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams.. By ALL reports, the Seahawks secondary is vastly improved this year because they brought in two smart, skilled, veteran safeties in Deon Grant and Brian Russell. Getting rid of the risk-taking, biting on play action, doesn't wrap up his tackles, goes for the big hit rather than the ball Ken Hamlin was one of their best offseason moves. Yet Hamlin and Williams both make the Pro Bowl. Go figure. I think the Giants expose them for the liability they are. And if they don't... well, there's always next week.
Random Predictions:
* Roy Williams gets called for a "Roy Williams Rule" horse collar penalty.
* Ken Hamlin goes for a big hit on Brandon Jacbos, lowering his shoulder and delivering a solid BOOM, but Jacobs bounces off him and jobs into the end zone.
* TO drops a certain touchdown pass.
Giants 31, Cowboys 27.
Can anybody remember a Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs where every single spread was more than a touchdown? It's pretty frickin crazy.
On Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday afternoon, they were talking about how the playoffs often come down to QBs and coaches. So they ranked the remaining ones. Let's do the same, shall we? (And for the record, this is pretty much how they had it too, maybe with one or two differences.. it's pretty cut and dry for the most part.)
QBs:
1) Brady
2) P. Manning
3) Favre
4) Hasselbeck
5) Romo
6) E. Manning
7) Garrard
8) Rivers
(One interesting thing there: You could also argue that the top 4 or 5 QBs on this list are the top 4 or 5 QBs in the league. Seems there aren't many top QBs sitting on the couch this postseason. Who's the best QB not playing? Brees? )
Coaches:
1) Belichick
2) Holmgren
3) Dungy
4) Coughlin
5) Del Rio
6) Phillips
7) McCarthy
8) Turner
Anyways, on to the picks...
Seahawks +7.5 over PACKERS
So since the reverse jinx has been put to rest, and Seattle won without it last week, let's stick with the reverse reverse jinx. (Also known as no jinx at all.)
Do I think Seattle can really win? Yes, I do. Will they? Probably not, but I'll take the points.
Here's the thing: Seattle is a much better team than their record indicates. There were only a handful of games this year where the whole team played a good game. Hell, even last week, Hasselbeck played pretty poorly, but they still won by 21. If they play as good as they can in all areas of the game, they can beat anybody. Yes, even the Patriots.
As strange as it may sound, I think this game might come down to playcalling and coaching. (Okay, maybe that doesn't sound too strange, but I don't say it often.) Both teams are considered "pass" offenses for the most part, though the Packers have done a nice job running the ball since this Ryan Grant kid has emerged. So what will the Packers try and do on offense? Do they throw the ball, and let Patrick Kerney and the hot Seattle pass rush get a chance to try and tee off on Favre? Or do they run the ball, which Seattle has been surprisingly stout against (including totally shutting down Clinton Portis last week)? A lot of people are predicting they'll try and run the ball and tire down the Seattle defense. Guess what. A lot of teams have tried that, and failed. Rookie DT Brandon Mebane has been excellent against the run since coming in for injured Chuck Darby around week 6. Their DEs are good against the run. Their LBs are good against everything. Their safeties are solid tacklers.
On the other side of the ball, it's almost the same situation, except Seattle's running game has been much worse. So do you think Holmgren sticks to what got them here, the pass? Or does he try and surprise them, and run more?
I don't know, but the pass/rush ratios for each team should be something to watch, and will tell a lot about how the game is going.
Another interesting matchup on both sides of the ball will be the pass-rushing DEs vs. the OTs. The Packers have Aaron Kampman and KGB against All-Pro Walter Jones and underrated Sean Locklear. (The article Samichlaus copied and pasted kind of dissed Locklear, but he's been very good the past few years.) The Seahawks have Kerney and Darryl Tapp going against what are supposed to be two pretty good tackles for the Packers (whose names I'm too lazy to look up right now... was Clifton one of them?)... Anyways, watch these matchups, and keep in mind that if any of the OTs look like they're struggling in pass protection, that could mean a RB or TE needs to be kept in to block. Last week, the Redskins were keeping in a TE AND a RB at times to help block Kerney. That means an easier job for the defense behind the line, since less receivers are running patterns. Also look for a lot of stunts from the d-lines, since the guards on both teams seem to be a weaker link than the tackles.
One thing assistant coach Jim Mora pointed out this week, and rightly so, is how dangerous the Packers receivers can be after the catch. He's right. The defenders need to wrap up Jennings and Driver (and even Donald Lee) immediately. They're dangerous with a bit of open space. (That said, so is Burleson on the other side of the ball.)
I could probably write another 10 paragraphs on this game, but it's already 1:30 and I know Anonymous is (not so) patiently waiting for this to appear, so just a couple more points:
Hasselbeck almost never has two bad games in a row. I look for him to be very sharp. (If he's not, I expect to hear after the game that his wrist is really pretty badly hurt...) Seattle has a lot more playoff experience than Green Bay does. Including several players who have actually beaten the Packers in Green Bay in the playoffs. (Burleson and Russell with the Vikings, Kerney with the Falcons.) So they're not unbeatable in the not-really-that-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Favre will need to remain disciplined and calm, as he has most of this season. Once the pressure starts getting to him, he can't revert to his gun-slinging mode, or else his mistakes WILL be turned into turnovers. Green Bay has a pretty solid defense. If they have weakness, I'd say it's at safety. Atari Bigby won the starting job from former Seahawk Marque Manuel, and looked good at times. But he also looked very bad. It he bits on play action and pump fakes, the big play behind him could be there.
It should be a good game. Even on paper and looking at the stats, the teams are very evenly matched. I think Hasselbeck hangs with Favre for most of the game, both defenses live up to their end of the bargains, and in the end, somehow, Mike Holmgren makes a decision, playcall, or adjustment that comes out ahead of what Mike McCarthy does.
Random Predictions:
* Leroy Hill chases down Ryan Grant from behind as he's looking for a hole, and knocks the ball out. Seattle recovers. Grant doesn't look quite the same after that play.
* Hasselbeck uses the same look-off and pump fake that worked against the Redskins last week for the go-ahead TD. This time, Atari Bigby bites.
* Tony Siragusa (yes, he'll be there) makes fun of Seattle kicker Josh Brown's widely publicized heated pants no less than 3 times. Brown responds by nailing 3 field goals without a miss.
Seahawks 30, Packers 27.
PATRIOTS -13.5 over Jaguars
The Jaguars really should have lost last week to a banged up and shaky Steelers team. Big Dumb Ben blew the game for the Steelers with 3 turnovers, including a horrible fumble while hanging onto the ball WAY too long when the Steelers had the ball with a chance to get in range for a winning field goal.
Defensively, the Jaguars are excellent against the run. Which doesn't matter a whole lot because the Patriots throw the ball mostly.
Offensively, the Jaguars are excellent running the ball. Fred Taylor can pound it and still has a decent burst, and Maurice Jones-Drew is the shifty (and fast) change of pace back who can also be very dangerous. A solid running game would usually cause problems for the Pats, since they can be run on. And the more you run on them, the more worn down their not-so-young defense begins to get. Usually. The problem with the Jaguars is that their passing game is shaky. David Garrard threw two interceptions against the Steelers. And do you know how many passes he completed to his own team? 9 completions. All game. That's pretty damn low. There have been QBs who've completed double that in absolute blizzards this season.
Oh, and I mentioned the Jaguars butter-fingered receivers last week, but their passing game was already so ineffective that it didn't really hurt them. So keep an eye on that again this week. They've gots the dropsies, I'm telling you.
So there's not a whole lot to really dissect here. The Pats can put 8 or 9 in the box and stop the run. And they can throw on the Jags at will.
One of the funnier things this week was Patriots safety Rodney Harrison STILL trying to play the "no respect" card. Let me find the quote... Here we go: "I don’t think everyone expects us to win it. I think a lot of people expect us to lose." Uhhhh, huh? Like who? Are you fucking kidding me? Last I checked, a two touchdown point spread pretty much means everyone expects you to WIN.
If that's what the Patriots need to get themselves fired up, some delusional idea that people expect them to lose, then maybe they are in trouble.
Anyways, Garrard will be overwhelmed by the Patriots defensive schemes, the stacked box will be able to contain the Jags running game, and basically I don't expect the Jaguars to do very much on offense. Which means the Patriots won't even need their usual 40+ points to win this one.
Stay tuned for next week, when Rodney Harrison says the Patriots get no respect and nobody expects them to beat the Colts in Foxboro. I can't wait!
Random Predictions:
* Interception by Teddy Brusci!
* Did I mention Wes Welker cost me a trip to my Fantasy Football playoffs with the horrible game he put up against the Ravens? Well, I'm in a playoff league where you can only use each player once, and I inserted Welker this week. Which will probably mean he stinks it up. Less than 5 catches, less than 50 yards.
* Maurice Jones-Drew takes a kickoff to the house!.... Only to have it called back on a sketchy holding penalty.
Patriots 27, Jaguars 10.
COLTS -9.5 over Chargers
I'll give Anonymous some credit in that he called that the Chargers/Titans game last week might be close. It was. And if Vince Young were a bit better and the Titans RB didn't have a key fumble inside the Chargers 10, we might have seen the Titans pull it out.
The Titans did almost everything right. They contained Tomlinson. They knocked Antonio Gates out of the ball game. They forced Phillip Rivers to beat them. Sadly, they forgot one thing - cover the fucking wide receivers. Despite the lack of big stats and not much attention, the Chargers actually have a decent WR pair in Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers. You cannot leave them open.
I look for the Colts defense to follow the same general gameplan, except they won't let the WRs beat them either. The Colts defense is actually pretty underrated. Safety Bob Sanders just won the Defensive Player of the Year award. (Patrick Kerney came in tied for second with Albert Haynesworth, but both were behind Sanders by 20+ votes.)
If you look at the above QB/Coach rankings, the Chargers have the worst QB and coach remaining. That should be enough to create a blowout environment.
Random Predictions:
* The announcers mention how great Bob Sanders is against the run at least 7 times.
* Tomlinson gets mostly contained in terms of yardage (under 60 rushing), yet still gets into the end zone.
* Phillip Rivers stinks it up so bad, we revisit the whole "Shouldn't they have kept Drew Brees?" debate.
Giants +7.5 over Cowboys
Did I mention Romo was in Mexico with Jessica Simpson last week? Did you TO has the infamous "high ankle sprain" and didn't practice until yesterday? Do you realize that Cowboys coach Wade Phillips has an awful record in the playoffs? Do you remember Romo's pedestrian performance in last year's playoffs in Seattle, when the Seahawk secondary actually employed a dude who had been a loan officer a few weeks prior to the game? And, let me ask, can you still picture the scene where Romo bobbled the snap for the potential game-winning field goal, and got chased down from behind at the 2 yard line?
Here's the thing: there's a TON of pressure on Romo and the Cowboys. There couldn't possibly be more. They're a touchdown favorite at home against a divisional rival they've already beaten twice this year. Eli Manning has been the poster boy for choke artists the past few seasons. (And even a few times this season.)
If the Cowboys lost this game it'll be a huge and complete letdown. Which is exactly why I think they will lose. Romo has faded down the stretch, exactly like last year. (Ironically, he made the Pro Bowl both seasons. Pro Bowl voting ends after week 14. And, both years, he's been pretty awful after week 14.) Everybody thinks he's the second coming of Favre. But to quote the immortal Denny Green, "You want to crown their ass, then crown them!"
Believe it or not, I'm starting to have a little faith in the Giants. They hung tough with the Patriots, and that might be just what they needed to build a little confidence. They pretty much dominated the Bucs last week. The offense had a smart game plan of keeping the passes short and not trying to challenge their quality cornerbacks up top.
A lot of what the Giants do on defense starts with their pass rush. We all know that Strahan and Uminoyurauraura are probably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league. They need to show up, and show up bigtime. Get Romo's happy feet going a bit, make sure you cover Jason Whitten, and jam/frustrate TO, and you could have a recipe for a win. If they don't get to Romo, he'll pick them apart.
I don't really trust Eli. But I don't trust Romo very much either. And here's the difference in this game: the Dallas secondary. All season I've been saying you can beat the Dallas safeties over the top. Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin (more on them in a moment) are not very good in coverage. No team has really taken advantage of this fact. (The Packers tried to before Favre got hurt, as he was unleashing bombs, but they were either off target or the defense expected it, because it didn't work.) I think that Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer complement each other nicely, and should be able to get open consistently all day. The question is whether or not Eli can hit them. And I'm saying he does. Enough to win.
So about Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams.. By ALL reports, the Seahawks secondary is vastly improved this year because they brought in two smart, skilled, veteran safeties in Deon Grant and Brian Russell. Getting rid of the risk-taking, biting on play action, doesn't wrap up his tackles, goes for the big hit rather than the ball Ken Hamlin was one of their best offseason moves. Yet Hamlin and Williams both make the Pro Bowl. Go figure. I think the Giants expose them for the liability they are. And if they don't... well, there's always next week.
Random Predictions:
* Roy Williams gets called for a "Roy Williams Rule" horse collar penalty.
* Ken Hamlin goes for a big hit on Brandon Jacbos, lowering his shoulder and delivering a solid BOOM, but Jacobs bounces off him and jobs into the end zone.
* TO drops a certain touchdown pass.
Giants 31, Cowboys 27.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
The Packer Press takes a look at the Seahawks
One thing that I love about the Milwaukee coverage of the Packers is the in-depth analysis of both the Packers and their opponents. Wednesday is the day their best and most thorough writer, a fellow named Bob McGinn, does the opponent analysis. Here's what he had to say today...
The Seattle Seahawks' chances of upsetting the Green Bay Packers on Saturday rest on quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, according to several personnel men and opposing coaches.
"It's all on Hasselbeck, and there's not a ton around him," an offensive coach for a recent Seahawks opponent said Tuesday.
"Seattle's offense has not lit it up. Taking a good defense on the road always gives you a chance, so I do not discount Seattle. But if the Green Bay defense can turn it into a defensive game, then I think Green Bay's offense will make a few more plays than Seattle's will."
"I'd like to think Green Bay will be more physical, so it will all come down to the quarterbacks," one scout said. "I'd take (Brett) Favre over Hasselbeck. Favre could self-destruct, but he also wants to beat his mentor (Mike Holmgren), all that (expletive), and prove to him he's not a loose cannon anymore."
Hasselbeck is 1-3 against his former team. In three full games, his passer ratings were 64.6, 67.4 and 52.7. Playing just the first half of the 2005 finale mailed in by the Seahawks, Hasselbeck's rating was 104.2.
"Green Bay," another scout said. "Seattle's defense isn't all that good, No. 1. No. 2, Green Bay's defense will be able to contain what Seattle does. Then there's the quarterbacks. I'd take Favre.
"Watch the Baltimore game (Dec. 23) and you'll see Hasselbeck isn't a tough guy. If that pressure gets in there early on Hasselbeck, then you'll know the answer to that game very early."
Weather permitting, Favre should be able to make plays down the field, according to a defensive coach and one personnel man.
"Seattle isn't intimidating by any means defensively but they've got playmakers and good team speed," the coach said. "They're the kind of team you might be able to get 30, 28 (points) on, but also if it goes their way can hold you to 10 or less.
"Hasselbeck can put together a drive and look like $1 million, then have a bonehead throw or two. Green Bay lives and dies by their corners. If their corners have a good day and the Seahawks struggle throwing it, I think Seattle will have a hard time. With Favre and his receivers, they can get deep on Seattle."
OFFENSE
SCHEME
Mike Holmgren has strayed less from the Bill Walsh model than all the other West Coast practitioners. He still uses some split backfields. He doesn't use much shotgun. He loves the draw, the screen and the flare pass. And his play-calling remains exceptional. The Seahawks were tied for seventh in turnovers (24), ninth in yards (348.9) and tied for ninth in points (24.6).
RECEIVERS
Holmgren traded a first-round draft choice to New England in September 2006 for Deion Branch (5 feet 9 inches, 192 pounds), but at this point he's probably the fourth-best WR. Branch is quick, courageous, sure-handed and injury prone. Cut by Chicago in August 2001, old pro Bobby Engram (5-10, 192) has overcome a serious thyroid problem to post a career season. Engram isn't as fast as Branch but he's quick, has tremendous chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck and catches everything. In four-wide sets, Engram and Branch man the slots with Nate Burleson (6-0½, 198) and D.J. Hackett (6-2, 208) outside. Burleson is ever-improving, a smooth athlete who runs nifty routes and has adequate speed. Hackett probably has the best speed of the group but is not a blazer. He does have good hands and has become more reliable. Holmgren signed former Colts and Lions TE Marcus Pollard (6-3, 255) on the cheap March 13 and the move turned out OK. Pollard, 35, can't get deep anymore but he's resourceful and a surprisingly capable blocker.
OFFENSIVE LINE
At 33, LT Walter Jones (6-5, 325) doesn't practice much because of bad shoulders and isn't finishing blocks as he once did. Yet, his pass blocking remains phenomenal. There's a huge drop-off to RT Sean Locklear (6-4, 308) and C Chris Spencer (6-3, 312), and then another to LG Rob Sims (6-2½, 312) and RG Chris Gray (6-3½, 305). Locklear, a three-year starter, is agile and athletic but insists on trying to play a power game and as a result gets beat by movement. Spencer, the 26th pick in '05, is in his first year as a full-fledged starter. He's a physical specimen with good speed and strength. Sims, a fourth-round pick in '06, shows pop and isn't a bad athlete, but fails to sustain blocks. Gray is more consistent than anyone except Jones, but at 37 has lost his legs and gets overpowered too much.
QUARTERBACKS
Hasselbeck (6-4, 225), eighth in passer rating at 91.4, is nursing thigh and right wrist injuries and coming off an uneven showing against Washington. After nine seasons in the same offense, he is quick with an audible and can pick apart zones. He throws a flat ball that can be difficult to catch, and whips it out fast and hard. Though bright (29 on the Wonderlic test), he tends to become overly emotional and it leads to interceptions. Despite his Ichabod Crane dimensions, he surprises defenses with his scrambling. Seneca Wallace (5-11½, 205) has four starts in five seasons.
RUNNING BACKS
At 30, Shaun Alexander (6-0, 228) is in steep decline. He never has been a hard-nosed runner. Nobody would ever describe him as gritty. He picks his holes adroitly, slips, slides and then gets down or out of bounds. He's patient, follows his blockers and has deceptive speed and power. Maurice Morris (5-11½, 214), a backup from 2002-'06, splits time by series. He hits holes hard and fast and doesn't mind doing the dirty work. His speed is average. Veteran FB Mack Strong suffered a career-ending neck injury in Week 5 and was replaced by Leonard Weaver (6-0, 242), a third-year free agent. Holmgren makes use of his running-receiving ability. However, he's hit or miss as a blocker.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Coordinator John Marshall uses a slant 4-3 "over" defense on early downs and a hard-to-handle 3-3 package on passing downs that feature Julian Peterson as a roving rusher. In his first season as assistant head coach/secondary coach, Jim Mora has made an impact after being reunited with old 49ers colleagues Marshall and line coach Dwaine Board. The Seahawks are a base Cover 3 zone team and like to zone blitz. They tied for sixth in takeaways (34) and points allowed (18.2) and 15th in yards allowed (321.8).
DEFENSIVE LINE
Athletic former Falcons LE Patrick Kerney (6-5½, 272) has become an elite player. As a rusher, he uses his hands extremely well and never quits. Against the run, he has gained strength and plays with good leverage. RE Darryl Tapp (6-1½, 265), a second-round pick in '06, would be better served playing 60% of the downs rather than 85%. He's instinctive, quicker than fast and is better playing the run away than at him. LDT Rocky Bernard (6-3½, 308) isn't as quick as he once was but his increased strength has made him stouter at the point. A lingering groin injury has reduced his impact. After season-ending injuries to Marcus Tubbs and Chuck Darby, rookie Brandon Mebane (6-1, 314) has held the fort surprisingly well. A third-round pick, Mebane is quick, strong and athletic but too often can't find the ball. Craig Terrell (6-2½, 290), a high-effort player, and shock absorber Howard Green (6-2, 320) also play extensively inside.
LINEBACKERS
All three possess big-play capability. MLB Lofa Tatupu (6-0, 242), a second-round pick in '05, and SLB Julian Peterson (6-3, 240) made the Pro Bowl. Tatupu plays far beyond his pedestrian speed and athletic ability because of near-instantaneous recognition. He runs well-timed blitzes and just finds the ball. Peterson, drafted at No. 16 in 2000, two slots after the Packers took Bubba Franks, loses focus at times on early downs and can be a late reactor. However, he has great speed and hitting ability, and rushes the passer from two- and three-point stances as well as any LB. Highly aggressive WLB Leroy Hill (6-1, 238) also flies all over the field and probably is the team's most underrated player. He doesn't take on blocks well.
SECONDARY
LC Marcus Trufant (5-11, 197), the 11th pick in '03, gained confidence in techniques taught by Mora and was a well-deserved Pro Bowl pick. He has become much more physical, both against run and pass, and covered well all season. RC Kelly Jennings (5-11, 175), the 31st pick in '06, is a fast, skinny finesse player with very good speed. He plays soft and can be slow to locate the ball. Nickel back Jordan Babineaux (6-0, 206), a former safety, is physical from the slot and has good ball skills, but his speed is marginal. The free-agent signings of SS Deon Grant (6-1½, 215) and SS Brian Russell (6-2, 210) paid off. Grant, a six-year starter in Carolina and Jacksonville, has become a more willing tackler to go with excellent ball skills and good speed. He still gets out of position too much. Russell, a four-year starter in Minnesota and Cleveland, makes sure everyone is lined up properly and is an OK tackler. However, he lacks speed and gets outflanked on some deep balls.
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Josh Brown, who had six winning field goals (50, 36, 42, 54, 38 and 50 yards) in 2005 and '06, didn't attempt any this season but improved his kickoffs. P Ryan Plackemeier rallied from a poor regular season (40.0 gross, 34.6 net) to put four of his seven punts down inside the 20 Saturday. The risk-taking Burleson, with two TDs on returns, has an uncanny ability to make the first tackler miss. The coverage units are subpar.
Book on the Seahawks
GAME-BREAKER
Nate Burleson probably is the fastest of the Seahawks' top four wide receivers and one of the NFL's top two-way kick returners. He caught nine TD passes, averaging a team-high 13.9 yards per catch, and returned two kicks for scores. Playing for Minnesota, he had three TD catches against Green Bay in three games in 2004. All three (8, 68 and 19 yards) came with the departed Ahmad Carroll in coverage.
WEAKEST LINK
Mike Holmgren's best punter in Seattle, Jeff Feagles, was allowed to leave as an unrestricted free agent in March 2003. In 2007, at age 41, he still punted effectively for the New York Giants. In '06, Holmgren used a seventh-round draft choice on Ryan Plackemeier, an overweight punter from Wake Forest. After a solid rookie season, he finished this season ranked 30th in average net at 34.3. He did punt well Saturday night.
McGINN'S VIEW
It was reported over the weekend that the Seahawks this season posted the fewest penalties per game (3.69) of any NFL team in 34 years. That would date to the New England Patriots of 1973 as coached by Chuck Fairbanks. That team averaged merely 3.57. For the record, Seattle was charged with 59 penalties for 428 yards, both NFL lows. On the other hand, Green Bay ranked 29th in penalties with 113 and 31st in penalty yardage with 1,006. Mike Holmgren's first team in Green Bay ranked an unseemly 19th in penalties. After that, his clubs ranked seventh, fourth, fourth, sixth, tied for fifth and tied for fifth. His seven teams in Green Bay averaged 88 penalties; his nine teams in Seattle have averaged 85.6.
It has been written and said over the years that Holmgren's years of service on the NFL Competition Committee won him some breaks from officials. One of his predecessors on that prestigious committee, Don Shula, drew the same comments when his Dolphins most always had so few penalties. That's sour grapes. Like Shula, Holmgren always coached his teams to play with precision and discipline. And it's another reason why his Seahawks are a dangerous opponent
The Seattle Seahawks' chances of upsetting the Green Bay Packers on Saturday rest on quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, according to several personnel men and opposing coaches.
"It's all on Hasselbeck, and there's not a ton around him," an offensive coach for a recent Seahawks opponent said Tuesday.
"Seattle's offense has not lit it up. Taking a good defense on the road always gives you a chance, so I do not discount Seattle. But if the Green Bay defense can turn it into a defensive game, then I think Green Bay's offense will make a few more plays than Seattle's will."
"I'd like to think Green Bay will be more physical, so it will all come down to the quarterbacks," one scout said. "I'd take (Brett) Favre over Hasselbeck. Favre could self-destruct, but he also wants to beat his mentor (Mike Holmgren), all that (expletive), and prove to him he's not a loose cannon anymore."
Hasselbeck is 1-3 against his former team. In three full games, his passer ratings were 64.6, 67.4 and 52.7. Playing just the first half of the 2005 finale mailed in by the Seahawks, Hasselbeck's rating was 104.2.
"Green Bay," another scout said. "Seattle's defense isn't all that good, No. 1. No. 2, Green Bay's defense will be able to contain what Seattle does. Then there's the quarterbacks. I'd take Favre.
"Watch the Baltimore game (Dec. 23) and you'll see Hasselbeck isn't a tough guy. If that pressure gets in there early on Hasselbeck, then you'll know the answer to that game very early."
Weather permitting, Favre should be able to make plays down the field, according to a defensive coach and one personnel man.
"Seattle isn't intimidating by any means defensively but they've got playmakers and good team speed," the coach said. "They're the kind of team you might be able to get 30, 28 (points) on, but also if it goes their way can hold you to 10 or less.
"Hasselbeck can put together a drive and look like $1 million, then have a bonehead throw or two. Green Bay lives and dies by their corners. If their corners have a good day and the Seahawks struggle throwing it, I think Seattle will have a hard time. With Favre and his receivers, they can get deep on Seattle."
OFFENSE
SCHEME
Mike Holmgren has strayed less from the Bill Walsh model than all the other West Coast practitioners. He still uses some split backfields. He doesn't use much shotgun. He loves the draw, the screen and the flare pass. And his play-calling remains exceptional. The Seahawks were tied for seventh in turnovers (24), ninth in yards (348.9) and tied for ninth in points (24.6).
RECEIVERS
Holmgren traded a first-round draft choice to New England in September 2006 for Deion Branch (5 feet 9 inches, 192 pounds), but at this point he's probably the fourth-best WR. Branch is quick, courageous, sure-handed and injury prone. Cut by Chicago in August 2001, old pro Bobby Engram (5-10, 192) has overcome a serious thyroid problem to post a career season. Engram isn't as fast as Branch but he's quick, has tremendous chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck and catches everything. In four-wide sets, Engram and Branch man the slots with Nate Burleson (6-0½, 198) and D.J. Hackett (6-2, 208) outside. Burleson is ever-improving, a smooth athlete who runs nifty routes and has adequate speed. Hackett probably has the best speed of the group but is not a blazer. He does have good hands and has become more reliable. Holmgren signed former Colts and Lions TE Marcus Pollard (6-3, 255) on the cheap March 13 and the move turned out OK. Pollard, 35, can't get deep anymore but he's resourceful and a surprisingly capable blocker.
OFFENSIVE LINE
At 33, LT Walter Jones (6-5, 325) doesn't practice much because of bad shoulders and isn't finishing blocks as he once did. Yet, his pass blocking remains phenomenal. There's a huge drop-off to RT Sean Locklear (6-4, 308) and C Chris Spencer (6-3, 312), and then another to LG Rob Sims (6-2½, 312) and RG Chris Gray (6-3½, 305). Locklear, a three-year starter, is agile and athletic but insists on trying to play a power game and as a result gets beat by movement. Spencer, the 26th pick in '05, is in his first year as a full-fledged starter. He's a physical specimen with good speed and strength. Sims, a fourth-round pick in '06, shows pop and isn't a bad athlete, but fails to sustain blocks. Gray is more consistent than anyone except Jones, but at 37 has lost his legs and gets overpowered too much.
QUARTERBACKS
Hasselbeck (6-4, 225), eighth in passer rating at 91.4, is nursing thigh and right wrist injuries and coming off an uneven showing against Washington. After nine seasons in the same offense, he is quick with an audible and can pick apart zones. He throws a flat ball that can be difficult to catch, and whips it out fast and hard. Though bright (29 on the Wonderlic test), he tends to become overly emotional and it leads to interceptions. Despite his Ichabod Crane dimensions, he surprises defenses with his scrambling. Seneca Wallace (5-11½, 205) has four starts in five seasons.
RUNNING BACKS
At 30, Shaun Alexander (6-0, 228) is in steep decline. He never has been a hard-nosed runner. Nobody would ever describe him as gritty. He picks his holes adroitly, slips, slides and then gets down or out of bounds. He's patient, follows his blockers and has deceptive speed and power. Maurice Morris (5-11½, 214), a backup from 2002-'06, splits time by series. He hits holes hard and fast and doesn't mind doing the dirty work. His speed is average. Veteran FB Mack Strong suffered a career-ending neck injury in Week 5 and was replaced by Leonard Weaver (6-0, 242), a third-year free agent. Holmgren makes use of his running-receiving ability. However, he's hit or miss as a blocker.
DEFENSE
SCHEME
Coordinator John Marshall uses a slant 4-3 "over" defense on early downs and a hard-to-handle 3-3 package on passing downs that feature Julian Peterson as a roving rusher. In his first season as assistant head coach/secondary coach, Jim Mora has made an impact after being reunited with old 49ers colleagues Marshall and line coach Dwaine Board. The Seahawks are a base Cover 3 zone team and like to zone blitz. They tied for sixth in takeaways (34) and points allowed (18.2) and 15th in yards allowed (321.8).
DEFENSIVE LINE
Athletic former Falcons LE Patrick Kerney (6-5½, 272) has become an elite player. As a rusher, he uses his hands extremely well and never quits. Against the run, he has gained strength and plays with good leverage. RE Darryl Tapp (6-1½, 265), a second-round pick in '06, would be better served playing 60% of the downs rather than 85%. He's instinctive, quicker than fast and is better playing the run away than at him. LDT Rocky Bernard (6-3½, 308) isn't as quick as he once was but his increased strength has made him stouter at the point. A lingering groin injury has reduced his impact. After season-ending injuries to Marcus Tubbs and Chuck Darby, rookie Brandon Mebane (6-1, 314) has held the fort surprisingly well. A third-round pick, Mebane is quick, strong and athletic but too often can't find the ball. Craig Terrell (6-2½, 290), a high-effort player, and shock absorber Howard Green (6-2, 320) also play extensively inside.
LINEBACKERS
All three possess big-play capability. MLB Lofa Tatupu (6-0, 242), a second-round pick in '05, and SLB Julian Peterson (6-3, 240) made the Pro Bowl. Tatupu plays far beyond his pedestrian speed and athletic ability because of near-instantaneous recognition. He runs well-timed blitzes and just finds the ball. Peterson, drafted at No. 16 in 2000, two slots after the Packers took Bubba Franks, loses focus at times on early downs and can be a late reactor. However, he has great speed and hitting ability, and rushes the passer from two- and three-point stances as well as any LB. Highly aggressive WLB Leroy Hill (6-1, 238) also flies all over the field and probably is the team's most underrated player. He doesn't take on blocks well.
SECONDARY
LC Marcus Trufant (5-11, 197), the 11th pick in '03, gained confidence in techniques taught by Mora and was a well-deserved Pro Bowl pick. He has become much more physical, both against run and pass, and covered well all season. RC Kelly Jennings (5-11, 175), the 31st pick in '06, is a fast, skinny finesse player with very good speed. He plays soft and can be slow to locate the ball. Nickel back Jordan Babineaux (6-0, 206), a former safety, is physical from the slot and has good ball skills, but his speed is marginal. The free-agent signings of SS Deon Grant (6-1½, 215) and SS Brian Russell (6-2, 210) paid off. Grant, a six-year starter in Carolina and Jacksonville, has become a more willing tackler to go with excellent ball skills and good speed. He still gets out of position too much. Russell, a four-year starter in Minnesota and Cleveland, makes sure everyone is lined up properly and is an OK tackler. However, he lacks speed and gets outflanked on some deep balls.
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Josh Brown, who had six winning field goals (50, 36, 42, 54, 38 and 50 yards) in 2005 and '06, didn't attempt any this season but improved his kickoffs. P Ryan Plackemeier rallied from a poor regular season (40.0 gross, 34.6 net) to put four of his seven punts down inside the 20 Saturday. The risk-taking Burleson, with two TDs on returns, has an uncanny ability to make the first tackler miss. The coverage units are subpar.
Book on the Seahawks
GAME-BREAKER
Nate Burleson probably is the fastest of the Seahawks' top four wide receivers and one of the NFL's top two-way kick returners. He caught nine TD passes, averaging a team-high 13.9 yards per catch, and returned two kicks for scores. Playing for Minnesota, he had three TD catches against Green Bay in three games in 2004. All three (8, 68 and 19 yards) came with the departed Ahmad Carroll in coverage.
WEAKEST LINK
Mike Holmgren's best punter in Seattle, Jeff Feagles, was allowed to leave as an unrestricted free agent in March 2003. In 2007, at age 41, he still punted effectively for the New York Giants. In '06, Holmgren used a seventh-round draft choice on Ryan Plackemeier, an overweight punter from Wake Forest. After a solid rookie season, he finished this season ranked 30th in average net at 34.3. He did punt well Saturday night.
McGINN'S VIEW
It was reported over the weekend that the Seahawks this season posted the fewest penalties per game (3.69) of any NFL team in 34 years. That would date to the New England Patriots of 1973 as coached by Chuck Fairbanks. That team averaged merely 3.57. For the record, Seattle was charged with 59 penalties for 428 yards, both NFL lows. On the other hand, Green Bay ranked 29th in penalties with 113 and 31st in penalty yardage with 1,006. Mike Holmgren's first team in Green Bay ranked an unseemly 19th in penalties. After that, his clubs ranked seventh, fourth, fourth, sixth, tied for fifth and tied for fifth. His seven teams in Green Bay averaged 88 penalties; his nine teams in Seattle have averaged 85.6.
It has been written and said over the years that Holmgren's years of service on the NFL Competition Committee won him some breaks from officials. One of his predecessors on that prestigious committee, Don Shula, drew the same comments when his Dolphins most always had so few penalties. That's sour grapes. Like Shula, Holmgren always coached his teams to play with precision and discipline. And it's another reason why his Seahawks are a dangerous opponent
Monday, January 7, 2008
Recapping St. Ides recap
This started out as a reply on St. Ides's thread, but I figured it was worthy of a thread of its own, so if you can stand not reading any mention of the New England Patriots, read on MacDuff...
We're not professionals? WTF?
Thomas Boswell is a columnist, not a reporter. His job is to write wonderfully biased diatribes that get Redskins fans to shell out their 50 cents to buy the Washington Post. I wouldn't get too upset, he's just doing his job. It's our job as discernable readers with good taste to know the difference. Wait, that just sound wrong. Especially with this crew
On a side note, all the Richmond reporters who were reporting on the VA Tech / Kansas bowl game had that game won for Tech before the damn football was snapped. One went as so far to say that she spoke to about 8 reporters from Kansas and only 1 of them gave Kansas a remote chance to win. Kansas won 24 - 21 proving that either (a) there is no God, (b) no Virginia, there is no Santa Claus, or (c) There is a God, but he was busy getting loaded with Sean Taylor and all those dead students while the games were on (hey, it was a hell of a bender)
The I-Genius should toot his own horn. He had a great season, and should spend as much time as he wants reminding the rest of us. This is "Sports Blog Steves" afterall.
One more thing about Hasslebeck's health: in a press conference this afternoon, Holmgren said the quarterback was suffering from a charley horse, "but he played the rest of the game." He described Hasselbeck being in the training room Monday receiving treatment to his whole body and then said about the thigh: "It's sore.". This reminded Packers beat writer Tom Silverstein of something Holmgren said many years ago about Dorsey Levens. Silverstein writes "After saying Hasselbeck was "OK," it reminded me of the time he was asked about Dorsey Levens' ankle sprain suffered against Tampa Bay following his return from a holdout in '98. Holmgren said he would be out a little while. When pressed how long Levens would be out, I vividly remember him saying, "Let's just say 'weeks'." Well, it turned out Levens not only suffered a severe ankle injury, he broke his fibula and was out for two months.
Finally, St. Ides correctly recounts the "We'll take the ball and we're gonna score" scenario in his thread, and I have nothing to add except for this: Al Harris isn't going to get fooled by a pump fake, but Charles Woodson will. He's the risk taker. A.J. Hawk will too, as will free safety Atari Bigby. Those are the guys I'd be picking on if I were Hasslebeck...
Stay tuned kids...
We're not professionals? WTF?
Thomas Boswell is a columnist, not a reporter. His job is to write wonderfully biased diatribes that get Redskins fans to shell out their 50 cents to buy the Washington Post. I wouldn't get too upset, he's just doing his job. It's our job as discernable readers with good taste to know the difference. Wait, that just sound wrong. Especially with this crew
On a side note, all the Richmond reporters who were reporting on the VA Tech / Kansas bowl game had that game won for Tech before the damn football was snapped. One went as so far to say that she spoke to about 8 reporters from Kansas and only 1 of them gave Kansas a remote chance to win. Kansas won 24 - 21 proving that either (a) there is no God, (b) no Virginia, there is no Santa Claus, or (c) There is a God, but he was busy getting loaded with Sean Taylor and all those dead students while the games were on (hey, it was a hell of a bender)
The I-Genius should toot his own horn. He had a great season, and should spend as much time as he wants reminding the rest of us. This is "Sports Blog Steves" afterall.
One more thing about Hasslebeck's health: in a press conference this afternoon, Holmgren said the quarterback was suffering from a charley horse, "but he played the rest of the game." He described Hasselbeck being in the training room Monday receiving treatment to his whole body and then said about the thigh: "It's sore.". This reminded Packers beat writer Tom Silverstein of something Holmgren said many years ago about Dorsey Levens. Silverstein writes "After saying Hasselbeck was "OK," it reminded me of the time he was asked about Dorsey Levens' ankle sprain suffered against Tampa Bay following his return from a holdout in '98. Holmgren said he would be out a little while. When pressed how long Levens would be out, I vividly remember him saying, "Let's just say 'weeks'." Well, it turned out Levens not only suffered a severe ankle injury, he broke his fibula and was out for two months.
Finally, St. Ides correctly recounts the "We'll take the ball and we're gonna score" scenario in his thread, and I have nothing to add except for this: Al Harris isn't going to get fooled by a pump fake, but Charles Woodson will. He's the risk taker. A.J. Hawk will too, as will free safety Atari Bigby. Those are the guys I'd be picking on if I were Hasslebeck...
Stay tuned kids...
Wildcard Weekend Recap
Let's start with the thing I hate most about the "real" media writers out there.
On the "Seahawks Insider" website that I go to for most of my info on the Seahawks (it's essentially a blog maintained by 2 or 3 Seahawks beat writers), they often post links to articles written by the other team's writers. So I read some of them sometimes. This past week, I read almost all of them. I find it amazing that so-called "professionals" can be so amazingly biased.
Exhibit A:
Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell.
Here are some quotes from the article:
"The Redskins, adjusted for their brutal schedule, probably have the second-best defense in the NFC. The Seahawks, factoring in their lame schedule, have almost the worst defense in the entire NFL. That gap is too wide to hide and will ultimately tell the tale. "
"So, remember "strength of schedule" when you're watching Washington vs. Washington. You'll seldom see a greater contrast. The Seahawks' road to January was a marshmallow roast. The battle-tested Redskins arrive on the West Coast battered but still inspired by the memory of Sean Taylor."
"Second-best defense in the conference vs. third worst in the NFL: that's the "normalized" reality of these teams. "
"Somebody will end this remarkable Redskins run. But it's not going to be the Seahawks. "
I think I said in my previous post you could bend and stretch and manipulate numbers any way you want if you try hard enough, and it doesn't end up meaning a whole lot. This guy took it to the extreme, basically saying the Seahawks defense sucks because they played a weak schedule. I wonder how many Seahawk games he watched during the season. I suspet somewhere between one and none.
Of course, his follow-up article on Sunday mentioned nothing about his mistaken analysis of the situation. Nor did it give very much credit to the Seahawks. It basically just said the "magical" ride of the Redskins was over, and it was fun while it lasted.
God, I fucking hate 90% of the writers out there. (Keep in mind that we here at SBS are not professionals, and therefore do not get paid to write this stuff. So we can be as biased as we want, and we sure as hell will be. If anybody wants to offer us a full-time job as a sports writer, I think the very least we could do is be impartial in our work, something most "professionals" seem unable to do.)
Anyways, on to the game itself...
St. Ides put up a perfect record last week, going 4-0 against the spread. (Though called the winners of the Bucs/Giants and Steelers/Jags game wrong, the points are what count, right?) Samichlaus went 2-2 agaisnt the spread, though 3-1 picking actual winners.
Anyways, I think Seattle demonstrated to Mr. Boswell and the rest of America that their defense is pretty fucking good. I've been saying all season they have the best linebacker trio in the NFL, and I'm sticking to that claim. Leroy Hill is the least appreciated of the 3, but arguably had the best game - led the team in tackles, had an impressive sack where he bull-rushed through the blocking back and pulled Collins down by the jersey as he was being pushed to the ground, and deflected away several passes. Kerney was an absolute beast. Even when they double and triple teamed him, he was getting through to the QB. (Oh, and that definitely should have been a fumble when he hit the QBs arm and the ball came loose. How the hell did the refs good that one up? Call it a fumble and let replay decide! Not the other way around!)
I think Samichlaus had it right that Hasselbeck's wrist is hurt more than they're letting on. He missed several wide open receivers. But just as it seemed good ol' Hasselstiff had returned (as Anonymous was kind enough to point out in a post-game phonecall), he made the big passes in the final drive and did enough for the team to win. The pump fake look-off on the TD pass to Hackett was a thing of beauty. I don't know why more QBs don't use the pump fake. It works pretty often. (More on that in a second.)
Not a good game for Hasselbeck or the Seattle offense really. But that's what is different about this team - the defense is good enough to win games. And Hasselbeck rarely (if ever) plays two bad games in a row. So, as long as his wrist can recover by Saturday, I think he'll be playing well in Green Bay.
As for the "We want the ball and we're gonna score" thing we'll hear about a million times this week. I'm sure Samichlaus knows this, but I'll rehash it for our other reader. Hasselbeck was goofing around with his old teammates in the coin toss huddle when he said that, and didn't expect it to be taken so seriously. There was one quote he made at the time saying he didn't realize the ref's mic was on and that it would be broadcast to the whole stadium. So it wasn't a cocky thing really. It was a goofball, fun, let me joke around with my former teammate friends, love of the game type thing. That's his personality, and his team loves him for it. (And his fans too usually, except when he's throwing up rainbows into double coverage...)
The play that went the other way for the winning Packers score in OT that game... AL Harris did a nice job of jumping the route. The receiver at the time? 5th string special teams ace Alex Bannister. (Who I believe is now out of football.) Apparently, he ran the wrong route. The Seahawks receivers are much better this time around, and don't often run the wrong routes. And, Al Harris better be ready for the pump fake on a similar play. Because if he tries jumping that route again, D.J. Hackett might just be taking one to the house behind him.
Last part: a revisit of my random predictions section!
* Josh Brown will hit at least one 50+ yard field goal. The Reskins kicker will miss a chip shot. - Check! And the missed 30-yarder by the Skins after the muffed kickoff was a crucial momentum shifter!
* Nate Burleson will have an important long punt return. - Sorta. He had several decent returns into Redskins territory, but hard to say any really had a huge impact on the game. He had a long return of 20, and I think one that took it to inside the Redskins 40, so he was something of a factor.
* Lofa Tatupu will have an interception where he fakes a blitz, then drops back into the path of a slant pattern. He did this 3 frickin times against the Eagles. I think Collins falls for it at least once. - Didn't happen. It seemed like they were bringing Tatupu on more blitzes than usual and dropping him into deep coverage. Leroy Hill was given the "jump the slant" responsibility this time, and while he didn't get a pick, he knocked down a couple balls intended for Cooley.
* The announcers will mention the sloppy field conditions no less than 10 times. - I'll need an assist on this one. I was watching the game, but not as closely as I would have liked, and often with the volume turned down a bit.
* Steve Samichlaus will giggle everytime Najeh "Dookie" Davenport touches the ball. - Only Samichlaus himself can confirm the accuracy of this one.
* Hines Ward will catch a deep touchdown pass. - Nope. :(
* Ronde Barber will have an interception. (Proving he always was the more talented Barber brother.) - Wrong again.
* Eli Manning will get hit from behind and fumble. (Then display the "Manning Face.") - Eli was surprisingly good. And had zero turnovers. Shocking.
* Brandon Jacobs will be held to under 60 yard rushing. - Check! 13 rushes, 34 yards. Though Ahmad Bradshaw had 66 yards on 17 carries for New York.
* Phillip Rivers has at least 2 turnovers, causing the game to actually be closer on the scoreboard than it is on the field for much of the second half. - True! One int, and one lost fumble. And although the Chargers covered, the game was pretty close until the 4th quarter.
* Nobody mentions the fact that Shawne Merriman has been a lot less effective (not to mention looking a lot skinnier) since he was busted for roids last year. - Check! In fact, the announcers were talking about how huge he is when he caused that fumble.
* It's warm and sunny in San Diego. (Sorry, but this game just bores me to tears.) _ ouch, I got the easiest one wrong! It was actually windy and raining at the game. Who knew it rains in California?!
So let's see.... 4-0 on game picks, and 4.5 out of 10 (possible 6.5 out of 12) on my random predictions.
Look for the Seahawks-Packers breakdown to appear early and often this week!
On the "Seahawks Insider" website that I go to for most of my info on the Seahawks (it's essentially a blog maintained by 2 or 3 Seahawks beat writers), they often post links to articles written by the other team's writers. So I read some of them sometimes. This past week, I read almost all of them. I find it amazing that so-called "professionals" can be so amazingly biased.
Exhibit A:
Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell.
Here are some quotes from the article:
"The Redskins, adjusted for their brutal schedule, probably have the second-best defense in the NFC. The Seahawks, factoring in their lame schedule, have almost the worst defense in the entire NFL. That gap is too wide to hide and will ultimately tell the tale. "
"So, remember "strength of schedule" when you're watching Washington vs. Washington. You'll seldom see a greater contrast. The Seahawks' road to January was a marshmallow roast. The battle-tested Redskins arrive on the West Coast battered but still inspired by the memory of Sean Taylor."
"Second-best defense in the conference vs. third worst in the NFL: that's the "normalized" reality of these teams. "
"Somebody will end this remarkable Redskins run. But it's not going to be the Seahawks. "
I think I said in my previous post you could bend and stretch and manipulate numbers any way you want if you try hard enough, and it doesn't end up meaning a whole lot. This guy took it to the extreme, basically saying the Seahawks defense sucks because they played a weak schedule. I wonder how many Seahawk games he watched during the season. I suspet somewhere between one and none.
Of course, his follow-up article on Sunday mentioned nothing about his mistaken analysis of the situation. Nor did it give very much credit to the Seahawks. It basically just said the "magical" ride of the Redskins was over, and it was fun while it lasted.
God, I fucking hate 90% of the writers out there. (Keep in mind that we here at SBS are not professionals, and therefore do not get paid to write this stuff. So we can be as biased as we want, and we sure as hell will be. If anybody wants to offer us a full-time job as a sports writer, I think the very least we could do is be impartial in our work, something most "professionals" seem unable to do.)
Anyways, on to the game itself...
St. Ides put up a perfect record last week, going 4-0 against the spread. (Though called the winners of the Bucs/Giants and Steelers/Jags game wrong, the points are what count, right?) Samichlaus went 2-2 agaisnt the spread, though 3-1 picking actual winners.
Anyways, I think Seattle demonstrated to Mr. Boswell and the rest of America that their defense is pretty fucking good. I've been saying all season they have the best linebacker trio in the NFL, and I'm sticking to that claim. Leroy Hill is the least appreciated of the 3, but arguably had the best game - led the team in tackles, had an impressive sack where he bull-rushed through the blocking back and pulled Collins down by the jersey as he was being pushed to the ground, and deflected away several passes. Kerney was an absolute beast. Even when they double and triple teamed him, he was getting through to the QB. (Oh, and that definitely should have been a fumble when he hit the QBs arm and the ball came loose. How the hell did the refs good that one up? Call it a fumble and let replay decide! Not the other way around!)
I think Samichlaus had it right that Hasselbeck's wrist is hurt more than they're letting on. He missed several wide open receivers. But just as it seemed good ol' Hasselstiff had returned (as Anonymous was kind enough to point out in a post-game phonecall), he made the big passes in the final drive and did enough for the team to win. The pump fake look-off on the TD pass to Hackett was a thing of beauty. I don't know why more QBs don't use the pump fake. It works pretty often. (More on that in a second.)
Not a good game for Hasselbeck or the Seattle offense really. But that's what is different about this team - the defense is good enough to win games. And Hasselbeck rarely (if ever) plays two bad games in a row. So, as long as his wrist can recover by Saturday, I think he'll be playing well in Green Bay.
As for the "We want the ball and we're gonna score" thing we'll hear about a million times this week. I'm sure Samichlaus knows this, but I'll rehash it for our other reader. Hasselbeck was goofing around with his old teammates in the coin toss huddle when he said that, and didn't expect it to be taken so seriously. There was one quote he made at the time saying he didn't realize the ref's mic was on and that it would be broadcast to the whole stadium. So it wasn't a cocky thing really. It was a goofball, fun, let me joke around with my former teammate friends, love of the game type thing. That's his personality, and his team loves him for it. (And his fans too usually, except when he's throwing up rainbows into double coverage...)
The play that went the other way for the winning Packers score in OT that game... AL Harris did a nice job of jumping the route. The receiver at the time? 5th string special teams ace Alex Bannister. (Who I believe is now out of football.) Apparently, he ran the wrong route. The Seahawks receivers are much better this time around, and don't often run the wrong routes. And, Al Harris better be ready for the pump fake on a similar play. Because if he tries jumping that route again, D.J. Hackett might just be taking one to the house behind him.
Last part: a revisit of my random predictions section!
* Josh Brown will hit at least one 50+ yard field goal. The Reskins kicker will miss a chip shot. - Check! And the missed 30-yarder by the Skins after the muffed kickoff was a crucial momentum shifter!
* Nate Burleson will have an important long punt return. - Sorta. He had several decent returns into Redskins territory, but hard to say any really had a huge impact on the game. He had a long return of 20, and I think one that took it to inside the Redskins 40, so he was something of a factor.
* Lofa Tatupu will have an interception where he fakes a blitz, then drops back into the path of a slant pattern. He did this 3 frickin times against the Eagles. I think Collins falls for it at least once. - Didn't happen. It seemed like they were bringing Tatupu on more blitzes than usual and dropping him into deep coverage. Leroy Hill was given the "jump the slant" responsibility this time, and while he didn't get a pick, he knocked down a couple balls intended for Cooley.
* The announcers will mention the sloppy field conditions no less than 10 times. - I'll need an assist on this one. I was watching the game, but not as closely as I would have liked, and often with the volume turned down a bit.
* Steve Samichlaus will giggle everytime Najeh "Dookie" Davenport touches the ball. - Only Samichlaus himself can confirm the accuracy of this one.
* Hines Ward will catch a deep touchdown pass. - Nope. :(
* Ronde Barber will have an interception. (Proving he always was the more talented Barber brother.) - Wrong again.
* Eli Manning will get hit from behind and fumble. (Then display the "Manning Face.") - Eli was surprisingly good. And had zero turnovers. Shocking.
* Brandon Jacobs will be held to under 60 yard rushing. - Check! 13 rushes, 34 yards. Though Ahmad Bradshaw had 66 yards on 17 carries for New York.
* Phillip Rivers has at least 2 turnovers, causing the game to actually be closer on the scoreboard than it is on the field for much of the second half. - True! One int, and one lost fumble. And although the Chargers covered, the game was pretty close until the 4th quarter.
* Nobody mentions the fact that Shawne Merriman has been a lot less effective (not to mention looking a lot skinnier) since he was busted for roids last year. - Check! In fact, the announcers were talking about how huge he is when he caused that fumble.
* It's warm and sunny in San Diego. (Sorry, but this game just bores me to tears.) _ ouch, I got the easiest one wrong! It was actually windy and raining at the game. Who knew it rains in California?!
So let's see.... 4-0 on game picks, and 4.5 out of 10 (possible 6.5 out of 12) on my random predictions.
Look for the Seahawks-Packers breakdown to appear early and often this week!
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Now it gets interesting..
The end of God, faith, help from heaven above and the Washington Redskins came for me when NBC broke out the "We want the ball and we're gonna score!" clip. I love that clip if for nothing else than the goofy grin on Hasselbeck's face. That and the part where Al Harris intercepts the pass and runs it in for the game winning touchdown. Come to think of it, that was during the "Irv Favre is watching from heaven above" season, wasn't it? Right... Irv was watching but he couldn't defend 4th and 26 the following week against the Eagles.
Of all the teams the Packers could have faced next week, the Seahawks are by and large the best of the bunch. I imagine we're in for a great game, and honestly I can't tell you who is going to win. This game could go either way, with evenly matched defenses, offenses, and special teams squads. I also imagine you're all in for a busy week of reading because the two of us are going to have a fucking field day with this. Especially St. Ides, who I imagine will write a blog that rivals "War and Peace"
Just be advised: I'm back on the job next week, so my insights probably will come early and late. But I know this is the matchup we've all wanted... may the best team win, beat Dallas, and have the honor of getting their asses kicked by the Patriots in Phoenix.
Of all the teams the Packers could have faced next week, the Seahawks are by and large the best of the bunch. I imagine we're in for a great game, and honestly I can't tell you who is going to win. This game could go either way, with evenly matched defenses, offenses, and special teams squads. I also imagine you're all in for a busy week of reading because the two of us are going to have a fucking field day with this. Especially St. Ides, who I imagine will write a blog that rivals "War and Peace"
Just be advised: I'm back on the job next week, so my insights probably will come early and late. But I know this is the matchup we've all wanted... may the best team win, beat Dallas, and have the honor of getting their asses kicked by the Patriots in Phoenix.
"As Sean Taylor watches from heaven above..."
What a joke. The script writers are having a field day. Someone want to explain why Seattle is now playing a soft cover 2? Redskins ball after a muffed kick return...
Seattle vs Washington, Samichlaus's first half thoughts...
Just a few thoughts as I watch these two teams play:
- Seattle's D plays a lot faster than I remember. The Redskins have no answer for them.
- Hasselbeck's hand is hurting him more than he's admitting.
- Holmgren is as annoying as ever with his play calling: twice on 4th and short he punted and once on 3rd and 15 he called a 7 yard pattern.
- Todd Collins isn't playing all that bad, but the Redskins receivers remind me a lot of the Seahawks circa 2004. They're defending more passes than the Seahawks secondary.
- Watching games at Quest are friggin annoying. That whole stupid "12th man" thing is making it difficult to hear Chris Collinsworth... hey wait, maybe this isn't such a bad thing afterall.
Second half is starting.... stay tuned!
Friday, January 4, 2008
Samichlaus's view of the playoffs... less words, same great analysis.
So the playoffs have arrived and I have absolutely nothing of use to add to what St. Ides wrote. This has forced me to do several things I really hate to do:
1: Actually do a little research
2: Read St. Ides post word for word. Twice.
3: Give serious analyitcal thought to the Tennessee Titans
4: Verify the spelling of the word Tennessee (Hey, I got it right! All thoses s's and e's just look a little funny)
Funny thing about St. Ides and me: we're both computer guys, but our brains work differently. St. Ides thinks like a programmer, and thus his analysis resembles the code he writes: page upon page of mind boggling perfection. On the other hand, I write like an engineer: my analysis resembles a reboot.
With that, here's my less than specatular take on the games
SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Redskins
What else is left to say about this game? Hasselbeck is 21 - 3 starting at Quest field. Seattle's defense is very good. Although the Redskins are playing inspired football they frankly lack the talent to compete. Shaun Alexander will absolutely show up, maybe for the first time this season. Todd Collins will not be able to handle the noise at Quest. The Redskins have a little momentum but have gained it against a Dallas team that didn't care, an up and down Giants team, an up and mostly down Bears team and a Vikings team that was just about realizing that they sucked. The playoffs are quite different than the regular season, and Seattle will be ready. Start packing for Green Bay...
Seahawks 31 Redskins 17
Jaguars -2 over STEELERS
Four weeks ago the Jags whupped the Steelers at Jacksonville pretty convincingly, and that was with a healthy Willie Parker. This game will be a bit closer but I really don't see a different outcome. A few things of note: from what I've heard the field is in terrible condition. This might even things out a bit, but it also increases the odds that, uhh, "Dookie" Davenport is going to get hurt. By the way that's an awfull nickname. It lacks the creativity of "The Dump Truck" which actually made me laugh. I still say that the woman who accused Najeh was full of crap, but I digress. The Jags have a terrific D, and should not have any problems containing the Steelers. Another point is the betting line: The line opened with Pittsburgh favored by 1, then shifted three points toward Jacksonville. Anonymous cab attest to significance here: the smart money is on the Jags.
Jacksonville 24 Pittsburgh 10
BUCS (-3.5) over Giants
I agree with St. Ides, this should be a great game, and up until last weekend I would have said this pick was a no-brainer. But the Giants showed a bit of greatness in defeat to the mighty Patriots, and I've been wavering on this one ever since. In the end it comes down to Jeff Garcia (get it? "in the end"?)over Eli Manning, the Tampa D over the Giants D, and Jon Gruden over Tom Coughlin. Tampa is rested and well coached, while the Giants have to be emotionally spent after that Pats game. Tampa should win, but it should be fun
Tampa Bay 24 New York 20
CHARGERS (-9) over Titans
Since the trade for Chris Chambers from Miami, the Bolts have been a very different ball club. First off, Norv Turner proved he could coach all that talent and second off, LT has proven he's got a lot of miles left in those legs. Philip Rivers has continued to improve and the Chargers are finally hitting stride. Oh, and Norv Turner's playoff record is 1 - 1 which is a much better winning percentage than former coach Marty Schottenheimers's. I'm liking the Chargers pretty easy
Chargers 34 Titans 17
1: Actually do a little research
2: Read St. Ides post word for word. Twice.
3: Give serious analyitcal thought to the Tennessee Titans
4: Verify the spelling of the word Tennessee (Hey, I got it right! All thoses s's and e's just look a little funny)
Funny thing about St. Ides and me: we're both computer guys, but our brains work differently. St. Ides thinks like a programmer, and thus his analysis resembles the code he writes: page upon page of mind boggling perfection. On the other hand, I write like an engineer: my analysis resembles a reboot.
With that, here's my less than specatular take on the games
SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Redskins
What else is left to say about this game? Hasselbeck is 21 - 3 starting at Quest field. Seattle's defense is very good. Although the Redskins are playing inspired football they frankly lack the talent to compete. Shaun Alexander will absolutely show up, maybe for the first time this season. Todd Collins will not be able to handle the noise at Quest. The Redskins have a little momentum but have gained it against a Dallas team that didn't care, an up and down Giants team, an up and mostly down Bears team and a Vikings team that was just about realizing that they sucked. The playoffs are quite different than the regular season, and Seattle will be ready. Start packing for Green Bay...
Seahawks 31 Redskins 17
Jaguars -2 over STEELERS
Four weeks ago the Jags whupped the Steelers at Jacksonville pretty convincingly, and that was with a healthy Willie Parker. This game will be a bit closer but I really don't see a different outcome. A few things of note: from what I've heard the field is in terrible condition. This might even things out a bit, but it also increases the odds that, uhh, "Dookie" Davenport is going to get hurt. By the way that's an awfull nickname. It lacks the creativity of "The Dump Truck" which actually made me laugh. I still say that the woman who accused Najeh was full of crap, but I digress. The Jags have a terrific D, and should not have any problems containing the Steelers. Another point is the betting line: The line opened with Pittsburgh favored by 1, then shifted three points toward Jacksonville. Anonymous cab attest to significance here: the smart money is on the Jags.
Jacksonville 24 Pittsburgh 10
BUCS (-3.5) over Giants
I agree with St. Ides, this should be a great game, and up until last weekend I would have said this pick was a no-brainer. But the Giants showed a bit of greatness in defeat to the mighty Patriots, and I've been wavering on this one ever since. In the end it comes down to Jeff Garcia (get it? "in the end"?)over Eli Manning, the Tampa D over the Giants D, and Jon Gruden over Tom Coughlin. Tampa is rested and well coached, while the Giants have to be emotionally spent after that Pats game. Tampa should win, but it should be fun
Tampa Bay 24 New York 20
CHARGERS (-9) over Titans
Since the trade for Chris Chambers from Miami, the Bolts have been a very different ball club. First off, Norv Turner proved he could coach all that talent and second off, LT has proven he's got a lot of miles left in those legs. Philip Rivers has continued to improve and the Chargers are finally hitting stride. Oh, and Norv Turner's playoff record is 1 - 1 which is a much better winning percentage than former coach Marty Schottenheimers's. I'm liking the Chargers pretty easy
Chargers 34 Titans 17
Thursday, January 3, 2008
It's Playoff Time! Wild Card Picks!
It's playoff time! Woohoo! That means you get extra long-winded pieces for any game that includes the Seahawks or Packers. Enjoy!
SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Redskins
Okay, so after years of mixed results, I'm officially laying the "reverse jinx" to rest. The truth of the matter is that the Seahawks should win this game pretty easily at home. Although the 10-6 record isn't all that impressive, and the team has been somewhat inconsistent at times, there's some things to get excited about. Let's throw out some numbers, bullet point style:
* 7-1 at home this season.
* 4 of Seattle's 6 losses were by 3 points or less.
* 6-2 in the second half of the season. (With those 2 losses coming at Carolina and at Atlanta AFTER they had clinched the division.)
* Not to play "What if" but a botched handoff/fumble in Arizona and a failed 4th and inches in Cleveland in OT cost them two games. This team could EASILY be 12-4. Or even better if the last 3 games meant anything.
* Seattle is sending 4 defensive players to the Pro Bowl - their most ever. (Tatupu, Peterson, Kerney, and CB Marcus Trufant, who has had an excellent year.)
* Qwest Field has caused the most opponent false starts since 2002 than any other stadium. By far. By like 20. The second most? Giants Stadium. And that's counting both Jets and Giants games.
* +10 turnover differential this season. (Good for 5th in the league.)
This is the best Seattle defense I can ever remember. They have no weaknesses. The linebackers are great in run defense and in coverage, as well as excellent blitzers. The team is getting a lot of pressure on the QB from the front 4. (Free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney finished 2nd in the NFL with 13.5 and a half sacks. The final 3 or 4 games, he was getting double-teamed, or else he would have had it easily.) The rush defense has been surprisingly solid. (Though they have given up a few big runs, those were chalked up to "assignment" problems and hopefully been corrected.) The safeties play smart and do not get beat over the top. (They're also very good in run support.)
Yes, last week they gave up 40+ points to the hapless Falcons. But that was a meaingless game, the Falcons had several short fields due to turnovers, and, as Julian Peterson said after the game, they were playing "base defense" the whole game. They didn't do anything special. Before that game, Seattle had allowed the 3rd fewest points in the league. That's pretty dope. Even after that inflated number, they finished tied for 6th, giving up 18.2 points per game. What's the number at home? Glad you asked. 13.875. Less than 2 touchdowns per game. If they can hold the Redskins to under 2 TDs, I think the game is in the bag.
So, let's take a look at the Redskins, shall we? Everybody knows by now the whole Sean Taylor tragedy, and how that has seemingly inspired the team. And yes, it's a "feel good" story to see the team playing well in his memory. (I can only hope there's no conspiracy to help the story last longer, as Samichlaus mentioned. Reading that made me cringe.) The Skins have won their last 4 games - home against the Bears, at the Giants, at the Vikings (I called this one perfectly by the way - this is the impressive win that got them into the playoffs), and home against the Dallas second stringers. It also took them OT to beat the Dolphins and Jets along the way.
As Anonymous pointed out, you can throw on the Skins. The Patriots lit them up for a whopping 52 points. They're 16th in the league in passing yardage allowed, giving up 214 yards per game. (Seattle gives up 219 for comparison's sake.)
Okay, enough numbers. We all know numbers can be twisted and interpreted a million ways. Let's look at the players.
It's no secret the Seattle running game has struggled all year. Some blame Shaun Alexander (who's been banged up). Some blame the offensive line. Either way, Holmgren switched to a pass-heavy offense around mid-season, and the team has responded. Matt Hasselbeck is going to his 3rd Pro Bowl and set career highs in touchdowns, completions, and yardage. Bobby Engram, long considered the team's 3rd option at WR, set a team record for receptions and went over 1000 yard receiving. The team's top 2 WRs going into the season (Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett) have only been on the field together for like 3 games all year. (They'll both be there on Saturday.) And while the offensive line may have struggled against the run, they've been pretty good in pass protection, often giving Hasselbeck enough time to find his 3rd or 4th option. And whereas a lot of teams like to set up the pass with the run, Seattle has reversed it of late. The running game has picked up lately, including going over 140 yards a couple games ago against the still stout Ravens rush D.
The bottom line is that I'll be shocked if Seattle fails to move the ball against the Skins. Hasselbeck will need to have a real bad day in order to not find his receivers.
Turning around to the other side of the ball.. we have NFC Offensive Player of the Month Todd Collins at QB. If his name sounds vaguely familiar it's because he's been a journeyman QB around the league for about 13 years now. Oh yeah, and he's a former Michigan Wolverine. As a lifelong Michigan fan, let me describe the college career of Todd Collins with one word - forgettable. The team was decent but not championship caliber while he was there, and he was one of the big reasons. So don't expect Tom Brady Part Dos to come to life here. He's riding a hot streak against mostly bad teams. I watched him closely against the Cowboys on Sunday, and he was holding onto the ball way too long and looking down his receivers quite a bit - both recipes for disaster. It's just that the disaster hasn't hit yet.
Yes, the Redskins have some play makers on offense. Clinton Portis can bust out a big run. Santana Moss is a speed demon. And Chris Cooley scares the bajeezus out of me. But I just think the Seattle coaching staff and defense will be too much for Todd Collins to handle.
Random predictions section:
* Josh Brown will hit at least one 50+ yard field goal. The Reskins kicker will miss a chip shot.
* Nate Burleson will have an important long punt return.
* Lofa Tatupu will have an interception where he fakes a blitz, then drops back into the path of a slant pattern. He did this 3 frickin times against the Eagles. I think Collins falls for it at least once.
Final score: Seahawks 23, Redskins 16.
STEELERS +2.5 over Jaguars
Forgive me if these other sections aren't quite as long as the Seattle one. Samichlaus made some good points about Willie Parker being out and Big Dumb Ben running the show. But you know what? I just canNOT give a home team points in the playoffs. Not gonna do it.
I think these teams match up pretty evenly overall. I give the Jags a slight nod in the running game because of the injury to Parker. I give the Steelers a slight nod in the passing game because the Jags WRs have butter fingers. (Remember I said that when Reggie Williams or Matt Jones are dropping a key 3rd down pass.)
I give the Jaguars a slight advantage in run defense. (Thanks to their bigass DTs.) And I give the Steelers a slight advantage in pass defense. (Thanks to decent corners and wildman Polamulu, whose name I'm sure I've spelled differently every single time I've used it, none of them right.)
So what does a game this close come down to? Home cooking (home field crowd + biased refs), coaching, and the QBs. As much as I hate to say it, Roethlisberger looked very good in dismantling Seattle this year, and he may have evolved past Trent Dilfer comparisons. While David Garrard has been mostly mistake free, he hasn't been asked to win a game in a playoff atmosphere. And I'm not yet quite convinced that Jack Del Rio knows what he's doing as coach, while the Steelers seem to have responded mostly favorably to first year Cowher replacement Mike Timlin.
Home field + better QB + better coaching = win. Oh, and don't underestimate the "bulletin board material" motivation that being an underdog at home in the playoffs will provide for Pittsburgh.
Random predictions section:
* The announcers will mention the sloppy field conditions no less than 10 times.
* Steve Samichlaus will giggle everytime Najeh "Dookie" Davenport touches the ball.
* Hines Ward will catch a deep touchdown pass.
Steelers 27, Jaguars 20.
Giants +3.5 over BUCANNEERS
I think this will actually be the closest and most exciting game of the weekend. The Giants showed something in that game against the Patrtiots. They played a hell of a game, and if they play like that, they'll win. However there's two reasons I think the Bucs will actually win (but not cover): Eli Manning vs. Jeff Garcia.
They're like polar opposites almost. (And I'm not even talking about their sexual preferences.) Whereas Eli seems to freeze up under pressure and makes awful mistakes that KILLS his team, Garcia is usually making plays and getting his team fired up. It's no accident that he led the McNabb-less Eagles on a nice run last year.
The key for the Giants will not just be pressuring Garcia, but containing him. Something they should be able to do. The Bucanneers don't have a lot of weapons on offense, the big name being Joey Galloway. (Who Seattle traded to Dallas for not one, but TWO first round picks about 10 years ago.. So, yeah, he's not young.)
After starting the season off somewhat slow, the Bucs defense has come around and played like its usual self. And I think that will be the difference in a tight game. The Bucs will not let Eli Manning beat them.
Random predictions section:
* Ronde Barber will have an interception. (Proving he always was the more talented Barber brother.)
* Eli Manning will get hit from behind and fumble. (Then display the "Manning Face.")
* Brandon Jacobs will be held to under 60 yard rushing.
Bucs 20, Giants 17.
CHARGERS -9.5 over Titans
It's a shame the Colts played their second stringers and rolled over for the Titans, cause I would have much rather seen the Browns in this spot. I'm still not real sure how the heck the Titans got here. By all accounts, Vince Young has been less than spectacular. Lendale White, the former sidekick to Reggie Bush at USC, has been their primary RB. (Oh, and he fumbles a lot.) Their defense has been okay I guess. A lot of attention has been given to DT Albert Haynesworth, who's having a nice season in his contract year. (That's the same scumbag who stomped on the face of a helmetless opponent last season by the way.)
I don't have a whole lot more to say about the Titans. I've watched very little (aka, none?) of their games this season. I can't even name their 2 starting WRs. (And I can probably do that for about 30 of the 32 teams in the league.)
As for the Chargers.. they're losing in the next round anyways, so I won't spend too much time on them either. Their defense is overrated, Tomlinson is becoming something of a premadonna (no clue if I spelled that right.. anyways, he's a bit too cocky and "entitled" for my liking, despite him telling everyone how much class he has)... Speaking of class, did anyone catch that footage of the Chargers, including mediocre QB Phillip Rivers talking smack to Jay Cutler? Yeah, that's class right there. After that, I went from not caring about the Chargers much to not liking them at all. Anyways, their offense led by Tomlinson and Antonio Gates should be enough to win this fairly easily.
Random predictions section:
* Phillip Rivers has at least 2 turnovers, causing the game to actually be closer on the scoreboard than it is on the field for much of the second half.
* Nobody mentions the fact that Shawne Merriman has been a lot less effective (not to mention looking a lot skinnier) since he was busted for roids last year.
* It's warm and sunny in San Diego. (Sorry, but this game just bores me to tears.)
Chargers 27, Titans 16.
SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Redskins
Okay, so after years of mixed results, I'm officially laying the "reverse jinx" to rest. The truth of the matter is that the Seahawks should win this game pretty easily at home. Although the 10-6 record isn't all that impressive, and the team has been somewhat inconsistent at times, there's some things to get excited about. Let's throw out some numbers, bullet point style:
* 7-1 at home this season.
* 4 of Seattle's 6 losses were by 3 points or less.
* 6-2 in the second half of the season. (With those 2 losses coming at Carolina and at Atlanta AFTER they had clinched the division.)
* Not to play "What if" but a botched handoff/fumble in Arizona and a failed 4th and inches in Cleveland in OT cost them two games. This team could EASILY be 12-4. Or even better if the last 3 games meant anything.
* Seattle is sending 4 defensive players to the Pro Bowl - their most ever. (Tatupu, Peterson, Kerney, and CB Marcus Trufant, who has had an excellent year.)
* Qwest Field has caused the most opponent false starts since 2002 than any other stadium. By far. By like 20. The second most? Giants Stadium. And that's counting both Jets and Giants games.
* +10 turnover differential this season. (Good for 5th in the league.)
This is the best Seattle defense I can ever remember. They have no weaknesses. The linebackers are great in run defense and in coverage, as well as excellent blitzers. The team is getting a lot of pressure on the QB from the front 4. (Free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney finished 2nd in the NFL with 13.5 and a half sacks. The final 3 or 4 games, he was getting double-teamed, or else he would have had it easily.) The rush defense has been surprisingly solid. (Though they have given up a few big runs, those were chalked up to "assignment" problems and hopefully been corrected.) The safeties play smart and do not get beat over the top. (They're also very good in run support.)
Yes, last week they gave up 40+ points to the hapless Falcons. But that was a meaingless game, the Falcons had several short fields due to turnovers, and, as Julian Peterson said after the game, they were playing "base defense" the whole game. They didn't do anything special. Before that game, Seattle had allowed the 3rd fewest points in the league. That's pretty dope. Even after that inflated number, they finished tied for 6th, giving up 18.2 points per game. What's the number at home? Glad you asked. 13.875. Less than 2 touchdowns per game. If they can hold the Redskins to under 2 TDs, I think the game is in the bag.
So, let's take a look at the Redskins, shall we? Everybody knows by now the whole Sean Taylor tragedy, and how that has seemingly inspired the team. And yes, it's a "feel good" story to see the team playing well in his memory. (I can only hope there's no conspiracy to help the story last longer, as Samichlaus mentioned. Reading that made me cringe.) The Skins have won their last 4 games - home against the Bears, at the Giants, at the Vikings (I called this one perfectly by the way - this is the impressive win that got them into the playoffs), and home against the Dallas second stringers. It also took them OT to beat the Dolphins and Jets along the way.
As Anonymous pointed out, you can throw on the Skins. The Patriots lit them up for a whopping 52 points. They're 16th in the league in passing yardage allowed, giving up 214 yards per game. (Seattle gives up 219 for comparison's sake.)
Okay, enough numbers. We all know numbers can be twisted and interpreted a million ways. Let's look at the players.
It's no secret the Seattle running game has struggled all year. Some blame Shaun Alexander (who's been banged up). Some blame the offensive line. Either way, Holmgren switched to a pass-heavy offense around mid-season, and the team has responded. Matt Hasselbeck is going to his 3rd Pro Bowl and set career highs in touchdowns, completions, and yardage. Bobby Engram, long considered the team's 3rd option at WR, set a team record for receptions and went over 1000 yard receiving. The team's top 2 WRs going into the season (Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett) have only been on the field together for like 3 games all year. (They'll both be there on Saturday.) And while the offensive line may have struggled against the run, they've been pretty good in pass protection, often giving Hasselbeck enough time to find his 3rd or 4th option. And whereas a lot of teams like to set up the pass with the run, Seattle has reversed it of late. The running game has picked up lately, including going over 140 yards a couple games ago against the still stout Ravens rush D.
The bottom line is that I'll be shocked if Seattle fails to move the ball against the Skins. Hasselbeck will need to have a real bad day in order to not find his receivers.
Turning around to the other side of the ball.. we have NFC Offensive Player of the Month Todd Collins at QB. If his name sounds vaguely familiar it's because he's been a journeyman QB around the league for about 13 years now. Oh yeah, and he's a former Michigan Wolverine. As a lifelong Michigan fan, let me describe the college career of Todd Collins with one word - forgettable. The team was decent but not championship caliber while he was there, and he was one of the big reasons. So don't expect Tom Brady Part Dos to come to life here. He's riding a hot streak against mostly bad teams. I watched him closely against the Cowboys on Sunday, and he was holding onto the ball way too long and looking down his receivers quite a bit - both recipes for disaster. It's just that the disaster hasn't hit yet.
Yes, the Redskins have some play makers on offense. Clinton Portis can bust out a big run. Santana Moss is a speed demon. And Chris Cooley scares the bajeezus out of me. But I just think the Seattle coaching staff and defense will be too much for Todd Collins to handle.
Random predictions section:
* Josh Brown will hit at least one 50+ yard field goal. The Reskins kicker will miss a chip shot.
* Nate Burleson will have an important long punt return.
* Lofa Tatupu will have an interception where he fakes a blitz, then drops back into the path of a slant pattern. He did this 3 frickin times against the Eagles. I think Collins falls for it at least once.
Final score: Seahawks 23, Redskins 16.
STEELERS +2.5 over Jaguars
Forgive me if these other sections aren't quite as long as the Seattle one. Samichlaus made some good points about Willie Parker being out and Big Dumb Ben running the show. But you know what? I just canNOT give a home team points in the playoffs. Not gonna do it.
I think these teams match up pretty evenly overall. I give the Jags a slight nod in the running game because of the injury to Parker. I give the Steelers a slight nod in the passing game because the Jags WRs have butter fingers. (Remember I said that when Reggie Williams or Matt Jones are dropping a key 3rd down pass.)
I give the Jaguars a slight advantage in run defense. (Thanks to their bigass DTs.) And I give the Steelers a slight advantage in pass defense. (Thanks to decent corners and wildman Polamulu, whose name I'm sure I've spelled differently every single time I've used it, none of them right.)
So what does a game this close come down to? Home cooking (home field crowd + biased refs), coaching, and the QBs. As much as I hate to say it, Roethlisberger looked very good in dismantling Seattle this year, and he may have evolved past Trent Dilfer comparisons. While David Garrard has been mostly mistake free, he hasn't been asked to win a game in a playoff atmosphere. And I'm not yet quite convinced that Jack Del Rio knows what he's doing as coach, while the Steelers seem to have responded mostly favorably to first year Cowher replacement Mike Timlin.
Home field + better QB + better coaching = win. Oh, and don't underestimate the "bulletin board material" motivation that being an underdog at home in the playoffs will provide for Pittsburgh.
Random predictions section:
* The announcers will mention the sloppy field conditions no less than 10 times.
* Steve Samichlaus will giggle everytime Najeh "Dookie" Davenport touches the ball.
* Hines Ward will catch a deep touchdown pass.
Steelers 27, Jaguars 20.
Giants +3.5 over BUCANNEERS
I think this will actually be the closest and most exciting game of the weekend. The Giants showed something in that game against the Patrtiots. They played a hell of a game, and if they play like that, they'll win. However there's two reasons I think the Bucs will actually win (but not cover): Eli Manning vs. Jeff Garcia.
They're like polar opposites almost. (And I'm not even talking about their sexual preferences.) Whereas Eli seems to freeze up under pressure and makes awful mistakes that KILLS his team, Garcia is usually making plays and getting his team fired up. It's no accident that he led the McNabb-less Eagles on a nice run last year.
The key for the Giants will not just be pressuring Garcia, but containing him. Something they should be able to do. The Bucanneers don't have a lot of weapons on offense, the big name being Joey Galloway. (Who Seattle traded to Dallas for not one, but TWO first round picks about 10 years ago.. So, yeah, he's not young.)
After starting the season off somewhat slow, the Bucs defense has come around and played like its usual self. And I think that will be the difference in a tight game. The Bucs will not let Eli Manning beat them.
Random predictions section:
* Ronde Barber will have an interception. (Proving he always was the more talented Barber brother.)
* Eli Manning will get hit from behind and fumble. (Then display the "Manning Face.")
* Brandon Jacobs will be held to under 60 yard rushing.
Bucs 20, Giants 17.
CHARGERS -9.5 over Titans
It's a shame the Colts played their second stringers and rolled over for the Titans, cause I would have much rather seen the Browns in this spot. I'm still not real sure how the heck the Titans got here. By all accounts, Vince Young has been less than spectacular. Lendale White, the former sidekick to Reggie Bush at USC, has been their primary RB. (Oh, and he fumbles a lot.) Their defense has been okay I guess. A lot of attention has been given to DT Albert Haynesworth, who's having a nice season in his contract year. (That's the same scumbag who stomped on the face of a helmetless opponent last season by the way.)
I don't have a whole lot more to say about the Titans. I've watched very little (aka, none?) of their games this season. I can't even name their 2 starting WRs. (And I can probably do that for about 30 of the 32 teams in the league.)
As for the Chargers.. they're losing in the next round anyways, so I won't spend too much time on them either. Their defense is overrated, Tomlinson is becoming something of a premadonna (no clue if I spelled that right.. anyways, he's a bit too cocky and "entitled" for my liking, despite him telling everyone how much class he has)... Speaking of class, did anyone catch that footage of the Chargers, including mediocre QB Phillip Rivers talking smack to Jay Cutler? Yeah, that's class right there. After that, I went from not caring about the Chargers much to not liking them at all. Anyways, their offense led by Tomlinson and Antonio Gates should be enough to win this fairly easily.
Random predictions section:
* Phillip Rivers has at least 2 turnovers, causing the game to actually be closer on the scoreboard than it is on the field for much of the second half.
* Nobody mentions the fact that Shawne Merriman has been a lot less effective (not to mention looking a lot skinnier) since he was busted for roids last year.
* It's warm and sunny in San Diego. (Sorry, but this game just bores me to tears.)
Chargers 27, Titans 16.
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