Round 2! Divisional Playoffs!

Round two! Ding ding!

Can anybody remember a Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs where every single spread was more than a touchdown? It's pretty frickin crazy.

On Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday afternoon, they were talking about how the playoffs often come down to QBs and coaches. So they ranked the remaining ones. Let's do the same, shall we? (And for the record, this is pretty much how they had it too, maybe with one or two differences.. it's pretty cut and dry for the most part.)

QBs:
1) Brady
2) P. Manning
3) Favre
4) Hasselbeck
5) Romo
6) E. Manning
7) Garrard
8) Rivers

(One interesting thing there: You could also argue that the top 4 or 5 QBs on this list are the top 4 or 5 QBs in the league. Seems there aren't many top QBs sitting on the couch this postseason. Who's the best QB not playing? Brees? )

Coaches:
1) Belichick
2) Holmgren
3) Dungy
4) Coughlin
5) Del Rio
6) Phillips
7) McCarthy
8) Turner

Anyways, on to the picks...

Seahawks +7.5 over PACKERS
So since the reverse jinx has been put to rest, and Seattle won without it last week, let's stick with the reverse reverse jinx. (Also known as no jinx at all.)

Do I think Seattle can really win? Yes, I do. Will they? Probably not, but I'll take the points.

Here's the thing: Seattle is a much better team than their record indicates. There were only a handful of games this year where the whole team played a good game. Hell, even last week, Hasselbeck played pretty poorly, but they still won by 21. If they play as good as they can in all areas of the game, they can beat anybody. Yes, even the Patriots.

As strange as it may sound, I think this game might come down to playcalling and coaching. (Okay, maybe that doesn't sound too strange, but I don't say it often.) Both teams are considered "pass" offenses for the most part, though the Packers have done a nice job running the ball since this Ryan Grant kid has emerged. So what will the Packers try and do on offense? Do they throw the ball, and let Patrick Kerney and the hot Seattle pass rush get a chance to try and tee off on Favre? Or do they run the ball, which Seattle has been surprisingly stout against (including totally shutting down Clinton Portis last week)? A lot of people are predicting they'll try and run the ball and tire down the Seattle defense. Guess what. A lot of teams have tried that, and failed. Rookie DT Brandon Mebane has been excellent against the run since coming in for injured Chuck Darby around week 6. Their DEs are good against the run. Their LBs are good against everything. Their safeties are solid tacklers.

On the other side of the ball, it's almost the same situation, except Seattle's running game has been much worse. So do you think Holmgren sticks to what got them here, the pass? Or does he try and surprise them, and run more?

I don't know, but the pass/rush ratios for each team should be something to watch, and will tell a lot about how the game is going.

Another interesting matchup on both sides of the ball will be the pass-rushing DEs vs. the OTs. The Packers have Aaron Kampman and KGB against All-Pro Walter Jones and underrated Sean Locklear. (The article Samichlaus copied and pasted kind of dissed Locklear, but he's been very good the past few years.) The Seahawks have Kerney and Darryl Tapp going against what are supposed to be two pretty good tackles for the Packers (whose names I'm too lazy to look up right now... was Clifton one of them?)... Anyways, watch these matchups, and keep in mind that if any of the OTs look like they're struggling in pass protection, that could mean a RB or TE needs to be kept in to block. Last week, the Redskins were keeping in a TE AND a RB at times to help block Kerney. That means an easier job for the defense behind the line, since less receivers are running patterns. Also look for a lot of stunts from the d-lines, since the guards on both teams seem to be a weaker link than the tackles.

One thing assistant coach Jim Mora pointed out this week, and rightly so, is how dangerous the Packers receivers can be after the catch. He's right. The defenders need to wrap up Jennings and Driver (and even Donald Lee) immediately. They're dangerous with a bit of open space. (That said, so is Burleson on the other side of the ball.)

I could probably write another 10 paragraphs on this game, but it's already 1:30 and I know Anonymous is (not so) patiently waiting for this to appear, so just a couple more points:

Hasselbeck almost never has two bad games in a row. I look for him to be very sharp. (If he's not, I expect to hear after the game that his wrist is really pretty badly hurt...) Seattle has a lot more playoff experience than Green Bay does. Including several players who have actually beaten the Packers in Green Bay in the playoffs. (Burleson and Russell with the Vikings, Kerney with the Falcons.) So they're not unbeatable in the not-really-that-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Favre will need to remain disciplined and calm, as he has most of this season. Once the pressure starts getting to him, he can't revert to his gun-slinging mode, or else his mistakes WILL be turned into turnovers. Green Bay has a pretty solid defense. If they have weakness, I'd say it's at safety. Atari Bigby won the starting job from former Seahawk Marque Manuel, and looked good at times. But he also looked very bad. It he bits on play action and pump fakes, the big play behind him could be there.

It should be a good game. Even on paper and looking at the stats, the teams are very evenly matched. I think Hasselbeck hangs with Favre for most of the game, both defenses live up to their end of the bargains, and in the end, somehow, Mike Holmgren makes a decision, playcall, or adjustment that comes out ahead of what Mike McCarthy does.

Random Predictions:

* Leroy Hill chases down Ryan Grant from behind as he's looking for a hole, and knocks the ball out. Seattle recovers. Grant doesn't look quite the same after that play.

* Hasselbeck uses the same look-off and pump fake that worked against the Redskins last week for the go-ahead TD. This time, Atari Bigby bites.

* Tony Siragusa (yes, he'll be there) makes fun of Seattle kicker Josh Brown's widely publicized heated pants no less than 3 times. Brown responds by nailing 3 field goals without a miss.

Seahawks 30, Packers 27.


PATRIOTS -13.5 over Jaguars
The Jaguars really should have lost last week to a banged up and shaky Steelers team. Big Dumb Ben blew the game for the Steelers with 3 turnovers, including a horrible fumble while hanging onto the ball WAY too long when the Steelers had the ball with a chance to get in range for a winning field goal.

Defensively, the Jaguars are excellent against the run. Which doesn't matter a whole lot because the Patriots throw the ball mostly.

Offensively, the Jaguars are excellent running the ball. Fred Taylor can pound it and still has a decent burst, and Maurice Jones-Drew is the shifty (and fast) change of pace back who can also be very dangerous. A solid running game would usually cause problems for the Pats, since they can be run on. And the more you run on them, the more worn down their not-so-young defense begins to get. Usually. The problem with the Jaguars is that their passing game is shaky. David Garrard threw two interceptions against the Steelers. And do you know how many passes he completed to his own team? 9 completions. All game. That's pretty damn low. There have been QBs who've completed double that in absolute blizzards this season.

Oh, and I mentioned the Jaguars butter-fingered receivers last week, but their passing game was already so ineffective that it didn't really hurt them. So keep an eye on that again this week. They've gots the dropsies, I'm telling you.

So there's not a whole lot to really dissect here. The Pats can put 8 or 9 in the box and stop the run. And they can throw on the Jags at will.

One of the funnier things this week was Patriots safety Rodney Harrison STILL trying to play the "no respect" card. Let me find the quote... Here we go: "I don’t think everyone expects us to win it. I think a lot of people expect us to lose." Uhhhh, huh? Like who? Are you fucking kidding me? Last I checked, a two touchdown point spread pretty much means everyone expects you to WIN.

If that's what the Patriots need to get themselves fired up, some delusional idea that people expect them to lose, then maybe they are in trouble.

Anyways, Garrard will be overwhelmed by the Patriots defensive schemes, the stacked box will be able to contain the Jags running game, and basically I don't expect the Jaguars to do very much on offense. Which means the Patriots won't even need their usual 40+ points to win this one.

Stay tuned for next week, when Rodney Harrison says the Patriots get no respect and nobody expects them to beat the Colts in Foxboro. I can't wait!

Random Predictions:
* Interception by Teddy Brusci!

* Did I mention Wes Welker cost me a trip to my Fantasy Football playoffs with the horrible game he put up against the Ravens? Well, I'm in a playoff league where you can only use each player once, and I inserted Welker this week. Which will probably mean he stinks it up. Less than 5 catches, less than 50 yards.

* Maurice Jones-Drew takes a kickoff to the house!.... Only to have it called back on a sketchy holding penalty.

Patriots 27, Jaguars 10.

COLTS -9.5 over Chargers
I'll give Anonymous some credit in that he called that the Chargers/Titans game last week might be close. It was. And if Vince Young were a bit better and the Titans RB didn't have a key fumble inside the Chargers 10, we might have seen the Titans pull it out.

The Titans did almost everything right. They contained Tomlinson. They knocked Antonio Gates out of the ball game. They forced Phillip Rivers to beat them. Sadly, they forgot one thing - cover the fucking wide receivers. Despite the lack of big stats and not much attention, the Chargers actually have a decent WR pair in Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers. You cannot leave them open.

I look for the Colts defense to follow the same general gameplan, except they won't let the WRs beat them either. The Colts defense is actually pretty underrated. Safety Bob Sanders just won the Defensive Player of the Year award. (Patrick Kerney came in tied for second with Albert Haynesworth, but both were behind Sanders by 20+ votes.)

If you look at the above QB/Coach rankings, the Chargers have the worst QB and coach remaining. That should be enough to create a blowout environment.

Random Predictions:

* The announcers mention how great Bob Sanders is against the run at least 7 times.

* Tomlinson gets mostly contained in terms of yardage (under 60 rushing), yet still gets into the end zone.

* Phillip Rivers stinks it up so bad, we revisit the whole "Shouldn't they have kept Drew Brees?" debate.

Giants +7.5 over Cowboys

Did I mention Romo was in Mexico with Jessica Simpson last week? Did you TO has the infamous "high ankle sprain" and didn't practice until yesterday? Do you realize that Cowboys coach Wade Phillips has an awful record in the playoffs? Do you remember Romo's pedestrian performance in last year's playoffs in Seattle, when the Seahawk secondary actually employed a dude who had been a loan officer a few weeks prior to the game? And, let me ask, can you still picture the scene where Romo bobbled the snap for the potential game-winning field goal, and got chased down from behind at the 2 yard line?

Here's the thing: there's a TON of pressure on Romo and the Cowboys. There couldn't possibly be more. They're a touchdown favorite at home against a divisional rival they've already beaten twice this year. Eli Manning has been the poster boy for choke artists the past few seasons. (And even a few times this season.)

If the Cowboys lost this game it'll be a huge and complete letdown. Which is exactly why I think they will lose. Romo has faded down the stretch, exactly like last year. (Ironically, he made the Pro Bowl both seasons. Pro Bowl voting ends after week 14. And, both years, he's been pretty awful after week 14.) Everybody thinks he's the second coming of Favre. But to quote the immortal Denny Green, "You want to crown their ass, then crown them!"

Believe it or not, I'm starting to have a little faith in the Giants. They hung tough with the Patriots, and that might be just what they needed to build a little confidence. They pretty much dominated the Bucs last week. The offense had a smart game plan of keeping the passes short and not trying to challenge their quality cornerbacks up top.

A lot of what the Giants do on defense starts with their pass rush. We all know that Strahan and Uminoyurauraura are probably the best pass-rushing tandem in the league. They need to show up, and show up bigtime. Get Romo's happy feet going a bit, make sure you cover Jason Whitten, and jam/frustrate TO, and you could have a recipe for a win. If they don't get to Romo, he'll pick them apart.

I don't really trust Eli. But I don't trust Romo very much either. And here's the difference in this game: the Dallas secondary. All season I've been saying you can beat the Dallas safeties over the top. Roy Williams and Ken Hamlin (more on them in a moment) are not very good in coverage. No team has really taken advantage of this fact. (The Packers tried to before Favre got hurt, as he was unleashing bombs, but they were either off target or the defense expected it, because it didn't work.) I think that Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer complement each other nicely, and should be able to get open consistently all day. The question is whether or not Eli can hit them. And I'm saying he does. Enough to win.

So about Ken Hamlin and Roy Williams.. By ALL reports, the Seahawks secondary is vastly improved this year because they brought in two smart, skilled, veteran safeties in Deon Grant and Brian Russell. Getting rid of the risk-taking, biting on play action, doesn't wrap up his tackles, goes for the big hit rather than the ball Ken Hamlin was one of their best offseason moves. Yet Hamlin and Williams both make the Pro Bowl. Go figure. I think the Giants expose them for the liability they are. And if they don't... well, there's always next week.

Random Predictions:

* Roy Williams gets called for a "Roy Williams Rule" horse collar penalty.

* Ken Hamlin goes for a big hit on Brandon Jacbos, lowering his shoulder and delivering a solid BOOM, but Jacobs bounces off him and jobs into the end zone.

* TO drops a certain touchdown pass.

Giants 31, Cowboys 27.