It's Playoff Time! Wild Card Picks!

It's playoff time! Woohoo! That means you get extra long-winded pieces for any game that includes the Seahawks or Packers. Enjoy!

SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Redskins

Okay, so after years of mixed results, I'm officially laying the "reverse jinx" to rest. The truth of the matter is that the Seahawks should win this game pretty easily at home. Although the 10-6 record isn't all that impressive, and the team has been somewhat inconsistent at times, there's some things to get excited about. Let's throw out some numbers, bullet point style:

* 7-1 at home this season.
* 4 of Seattle's 6 losses were by 3 points or less.
* 6-2 in the second half of the season. (With those 2 losses coming at Carolina and at Atlanta AFTER they had clinched the division.)
* Not to play "What if" but a botched handoff/fumble in Arizona and a failed 4th and inches in Cleveland in OT cost them two games. This team could EASILY be 12-4. Or even better if the last 3 games meant anything.
* Seattle is sending 4 defensive players to the Pro Bowl - their most ever. (Tatupu, Peterson, Kerney, and CB Marcus Trufant, who has had an excellent year.)
* Qwest Field has caused the most opponent false starts since 2002 than any other stadium. By far. By like 20. The second most? Giants Stadium. And that's counting both Jets and Giants games.
* +10 turnover differential this season. (Good for 5th in the league.)

This is the best Seattle defense I can ever remember. They have no weaknesses. The linebackers are great in run defense and in coverage, as well as excellent blitzers. The team is getting a lot of pressure on the QB from the front 4. (Free agent acquisition Patrick Kerney finished 2nd in the NFL with 13.5 and a half sacks. The final 3 or 4 games, he was getting double-teamed, or else he would have had it easily.) The rush defense has been surprisingly solid. (Though they have given up a few big runs, those were chalked up to "assignment" problems and hopefully been corrected.) The safeties play smart and do not get beat over the top. (They're also very good in run support.)

Yes, last week they gave up 40+ points to the hapless Falcons. But that was a meaingless game, the Falcons had several short fields due to turnovers, and, as Julian Peterson said after the game, they were playing "base defense" the whole game. They didn't do anything special. Before that game, Seattle had allowed the 3rd fewest points in the league. That's pretty dope. Even after that inflated number, they finished tied for 6th, giving up 18.2 points per game. What's the number at home? Glad you asked. 13.875. Less than 2 touchdowns per game. If they can hold the Redskins to under 2 TDs, I think the game is in the bag.

So, let's take a look at the Redskins, shall we? Everybody knows by now the whole Sean Taylor tragedy, and how that has seemingly inspired the team. And yes, it's a "feel good" story to see the team playing well in his memory. (I can only hope there's no conspiracy to help the story last longer, as Samichlaus mentioned. Reading that made me cringe.) The Skins have won their last 4 games - home against the Bears, at the Giants, at the Vikings (I called this one perfectly by the way - this is the impressive win that got them into the playoffs), and home against the Dallas second stringers. It also took them OT to beat the Dolphins and Jets along the way.

As Anonymous pointed out, you can throw on the Skins. The Patriots lit them up for a whopping 52 points. They're 16th in the league in passing yardage allowed, giving up 214 yards per game. (Seattle gives up 219 for comparison's sake.)

Okay, enough numbers. We all know numbers can be twisted and interpreted a million ways. Let's look at the players.

It's no secret the Seattle running game has struggled all year. Some blame Shaun Alexander (who's been banged up). Some blame the offensive line. Either way, Holmgren switched to a pass-heavy offense around mid-season, and the team has responded. Matt Hasselbeck is going to his 3rd Pro Bowl and set career highs in touchdowns, completions, and yardage. Bobby Engram, long considered the team's 3rd option at WR, set a team record for receptions and went over 1000 yard receiving. The team's top 2 WRs going into the season (Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett) have only been on the field together for like 3 games all year. (They'll both be there on Saturday.) And while the offensive line may have struggled against the run, they've been pretty good in pass protection, often giving Hasselbeck enough time to find his 3rd or 4th option. And whereas a lot of teams like to set up the pass with the run, Seattle has reversed it of late. The running game has picked up lately, including going over 140 yards a couple games ago against the still stout Ravens rush D.

The bottom line is that I'll be shocked if Seattle fails to move the ball against the Skins. Hasselbeck will need to have a real bad day in order to not find his receivers.

Turning around to the other side of the ball.. we have NFC Offensive Player of the Month Todd Collins at QB. If his name sounds vaguely familiar it's because he's been a journeyman QB around the league for about 13 years now. Oh yeah, and he's a former Michigan Wolverine. As a lifelong Michigan fan, let me describe the college career of Todd Collins with one word - forgettable. The team was decent but not championship caliber while he was there, and he was one of the big reasons. So don't expect Tom Brady Part Dos to come to life here. He's riding a hot streak against mostly bad teams. I watched him closely against the Cowboys on Sunday, and he was holding onto the ball way too long and looking down his receivers quite a bit - both recipes for disaster. It's just that the disaster hasn't hit yet.

Yes, the Redskins have some play makers on offense. Clinton Portis can bust out a big run. Santana Moss is a speed demon. And Chris Cooley scares the bajeezus out of me. But I just think the Seattle coaching staff and defense will be too much for Todd Collins to handle.

Random predictions section:
* Josh Brown will hit at least one 50+ yard field goal. The Reskins kicker will miss a chip shot.
* Nate Burleson will have an important long punt return.
* Lofa Tatupu will have an interception where he fakes a blitz, then drops back into the path of a slant pattern. He did this 3 frickin times against the Eagles. I think Collins falls for it at least once.

Final score: Seahawks 23, Redskins 16.

STEELERS +2.5 over Jaguars
Forgive me if these other sections aren't quite as long as the Seattle one. Samichlaus made some good points about Willie Parker being out and Big Dumb Ben running the show. But you know what? I just canNOT give a home team points in the playoffs. Not gonna do it.

I think these teams match up pretty evenly overall. I give the Jags a slight nod in the running game because of the injury to Parker. I give the Steelers a slight nod in the passing game because the Jags WRs have butter fingers. (Remember I said that when Reggie Williams or Matt Jones are dropping a key 3rd down pass.)

I give the Jaguars a slight advantage in run defense. (Thanks to their bigass DTs.) And I give the Steelers a slight advantage in pass defense. (Thanks to decent corners and wildman Polamulu, whose name I'm sure I've spelled differently every single time I've used it, none of them right.)

So what does a game this close come down to? Home cooking (home field crowd + biased refs), coaching, and the QBs. As much as I hate to say it, Roethlisberger looked very good in dismantling Seattle this year, and he may have evolved past Trent Dilfer comparisons. While David Garrard has been mostly mistake free, he hasn't been asked to win a game in a playoff atmosphere. And I'm not yet quite convinced that Jack Del Rio knows what he's doing as coach, while the Steelers seem to have responded mostly favorably to first year Cowher replacement Mike Timlin.

Home field + better QB + better coaching = win. Oh, and don't underestimate the "bulletin board material" motivation that being an underdog at home in the playoffs will provide for Pittsburgh.

Random predictions section:
* The announcers will mention the sloppy field conditions no less than 10 times.
* Steve Samichlaus will giggle everytime Najeh "Dookie" Davenport touches the ball.
* Hines Ward will catch a deep touchdown pass.

Steelers 27, Jaguars 20.

Giants +3.5 over BUCANNEERS
I think this will actually be the closest and most exciting game of the weekend. The Giants showed something in that game against the Patrtiots. They played a hell of a game, and if they play like that, they'll win. However there's two reasons I think the Bucs will actually win (but not cover): Eli Manning vs. Jeff Garcia.

They're like polar opposites almost. (And I'm not even talking about their sexual preferences.) Whereas Eli seems to freeze up under pressure and makes awful mistakes that KILLS his team, Garcia is usually making plays and getting his team fired up. It's no accident that he led the McNabb-less Eagles on a nice run last year.

The key for the Giants will not just be pressuring Garcia, but containing him. Something they should be able to do. The Bucanneers don't have a lot of weapons on offense, the big name being Joey Galloway. (Who Seattle traded to Dallas for not one, but TWO first round picks about 10 years ago.. So, yeah, he's not young.)

After starting the season off somewhat slow, the Bucs defense has come around and played like its usual self. And I think that will be the difference in a tight game. The Bucs will not let Eli Manning beat them.

Random predictions section:
* Ronde Barber will have an interception. (Proving he always was the more talented Barber brother.)
* Eli Manning will get hit from behind and fumble. (Then display the "Manning Face.")
* Brandon Jacobs will be held to under 60 yard rushing.

Bucs 20, Giants 17.

CHARGERS -9.5 over Titans

It's a shame the Colts played their second stringers and rolled over for the Titans, cause I would have much rather seen the Browns in this spot. I'm still not real sure how the heck the Titans got here. By all accounts, Vince Young has been less than spectacular. Lendale White, the former sidekick to Reggie Bush at USC, has been their primary RB. (Oh, and he fumbles a lot.) Their defense has been okay I guess. A lot of attention has been given to DT Albert Haynesworth, who's having a nice season in his contract year. (That's the same scumbag who stomped on the face of a helmetless opponent last season by the way.)

I don't have a whole lot more to say about the Titans. I've watched very little (aka, none?) of their games this season. I can't even name their 2 starting WRs. (And I can probably do that for about 30 of the 32 teams in the league.)

As for the Chargers.. they're losing in the next round anyways, so I won't spend too much time on them either. Their defense is overrated, Tomlinson is becoming something of a premadonna (no clue if I spelled that right.. anyways, he's a bit too cocky and "entitled" for my liking, despite him telling everyone how much class he has)... Speaking of class, did anyone catch that footage of the Chargers, including mediocre QB Phillip Rivers talking smack to Jay Cutler? Yeah, that's class right there. After that, I went from not caring about the Chargers much to not liking them at all. Anyways, their offense led by Tomlinson and Antonio Gates should be enough to win this fairly easily.

Random predictions section:
* Phillip Rivers has at least 2 turnovers, causing the game to actually be closer on the scoreboard than it is on the field for much of the second half.
* Nobody mentions the fact that Shawne Merriman has been a lot less effective (not to mention looking a lot skinnier) since he was busted for roids last year.
* It's warm and sunny in San Diego. (Sorry, but this game just bores me to tears.)

Chargers 27, Titans 16.