Wednesday, January 9, 2008

The Packer Press takes a look at the Seahawks

One thing that I love about the Milwaukee coverage of the Packers is the in-depth analysis of both the Packers and their opponents. Wednesday is the day their best and most thorough writer, a fellow named Bob McGinn, does the opponent analysis. Here's what he had to say today...


The Seattle Seahawks' chances of upsetting the Green Bay Packers on Saturday rest on quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, according to several personnel men and opposing coaches.

"It's all on Hasselbeck, and there's not a ton around him," an offensive coach for a recent Seahawks opponent said Tuesday.

"Seattle's offense has not lit it up. Taking a good defense on the road always gives you a chance, so I do not discount Seattle. But if the Green Bay defense can turn it into a defensive game, then I think Green Bay's offense will make a few more plays than Seattle's will."

"I'd like to think Green Bay will be more physical, so it will all come down to the quarterbacks," one scout said. "I'd take (Brett) Favre over Hasselbeck. Favre could self-destruct, but he also wants to beat his mentor (Mike Holmgren), all that (expletive), and prove to him he's not a loose cannon anymore."

Hasselbeck is 1-3 against his former team. In three full games, his passer ratings were 64.6, 67.4 and 52.7. Playing just the first half of the 2005 finale mailed in by the Seahawks, Hasselbeck's rating was 104.2.

"Green Bay," another scout said. "Seattle's defense isn't all that good, No. 1. No. 2, Green Bay's defense will be able to contain what Seattle does. Then there's the quarterbacks. I'd take Favre.

"Watch the Baltimore game (Dec. 23) and you'll see Hasselbeck isn't a tough guy. If that pressure gets in there early on Hasselbeck, then you'll know the answer to that game very early."

Weather permitting, Favre should be able to make plays down the field, according to a defensive coach and one personnel man.

"Seattle isn't intimidating by any means defensively but they've got playmakers and good team speed," the coach said. "They're the kind of team you might be able to get 30, 28 (points) on, but also if it goes their way can hold you to 10 or less.

"Hasselbeck can put together a drive and look like $1 million, then have a bonehead throw or two. Green Bay lives and dies by their corners. If their corners have a good day and the Seahawks struggle throwing it, I think Seattle will have a hard time. With Favre and his receivers, they can get deep on Seattle."

OFFENSE

SCHEME

Mike Holmgren has strayed less from the Bill Walsh model than all the other West Coast practitioners. He still uses some split backfields. He doesn't use much shotgun. He loves the draw, the screen and the flare pass. And his play-calling remains exceptional. The Seahawks were tied for seventh in turnovers (24), ninth in yards (348.9) and tied for ninth in points (24.6).

RECEIVERS

Holmgren traded a first-round draft choice to New England in September 2006 for Deion Branch (5 feet 9 inches, 192 pounds), but at this point he's probably the fourth-best WR. Branch is quick, courageous, sure-handed and injury prone. Cut by Chicago in August 2001, old pro Bobby Engram (5-10, 192) has overcome a serious thyroid problem to post a career season. Engram isn't as fast as Branch but he's quick, has tremendous chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck and catches everything. In four-wide sets, Engram and Branch man the slots with Nate Burleson (6-0½, 198) and D.J. Hackett (6-2, 208) outside. Burleson is ever-improving, a smooth athlete who runs nifty routes and has adequate speed. Hackett probably has the best speed of the group but is not a blazer. He does have good hands and has become more reliable. Holmgren signed former Colts and Lions TE Marcus Pollard (6-3, 255) on the cheap March 13 and the move turned out OK. Pollard, 35, can't get deep anymore but he's resourceful and a surprisingly capable blocker.

OFFENSIVE LINE

At 33, LT Walter Jones (6-5, 325) doesn't practice much because of bad shoulders and isn't finishing blocks as he once did. Yet, his pass blocking remains phenomenal. There's a huge drop-off to RT Sean Locklear (6-4, 308) and C Chris Spencer (6-3, 312), and then another to LG Rob Sims (6-2½, 312) and RG Chris Gray (6-3½, 305). Locklear, a three-year starter, is agile and athletic but insists on trying to play a power game and as a result gets beat by movement. Spencer, the 26th pick in '05, is in his first year as a full-fledged starter. He's a physical specimen with good speed and strength. Sims, a fourth-round pick in '06, shows pop and isn't a bad athlete, but fails to sustain blocks. Gray is more consistent than anyone except Jones, but at 37 has lost his legs and gets overpowered too much.

QUARTERBACKS

Hasselbeck (6-4, 225), eighth in passer rating at 91.4, is nursing thigh and right wrist injuries and coming off an uneven showing against Washington. After nine seasons in the same offense, he is quick with an audible and can pick apart zones. He throws a flat ball that can be difficult to catch, and whips it out fast and hard. Though bright (29 on the Wonderlic test), he tends to become overly emotional and it leads to interceptions. Despite his Ichabod Crane dimensions, he surprises defenses with his scrambling. Seneca Wallace (5-11½, 205) has four starts in five seasons.


RUNNING BACKS

At 30, Shaun Alexander (6-0, 228) is in steep decline. He never has been a hard-nosed runner. Nobody would ever describe him as gritty. He picks his holes adroitly, slips, slides and then gets down or out of bounds. He's patient, follows his blockers and has deceptive speed and power. Maurice Morris (5-11½, 214), a backup from 2002-'06, splits time by series. He hits holes hard and fast and doesn't mind doing the dirty work. His speed is average. Veteran FB Mack Strong suffered a career-ending neck injury in Week 5 and was replaced by Leonard Weaver (6-0, 242), a third-year free agent. Holmgren makes use of his running-receiving ability. However, he's hit or miss as a blocker.

DEFENSE

SCHEME

Coordinator John Marshall uses a slant 4-3 "over" defense on early downs and a hard-to-handle 3-3 package on passing downs that feature Julian Peterson as a roving rusher. In his first season as assistant head coach/secondary coach, Jim Mora has made an impact after being reunited with old 49ers colleagues Marshall and line coach Dwaine Board. The Seahawks are a base Cover 3 zone team and like to zone blitz. They tied for sixth in takeaways (34) and points allowed (18.2) and 15th in yards allowed (321.8).


DEFENSIVE LINE

Athletic former Falcons LE Patrick Kerney (6-5½, 272) has become an elite player. As a rusher, he uses his hands extremely well and never quits. Against the run, he has gained strength and plays with good leverage. RE Darryl Tapp (6-1½, 265), a second-round pick in '06, would be better served playing 60% of the downs rather than 85%. He's instinctive, quicker than fast and is better playing the run away than at him. LDT Rocky Bernard (6-3½, 308) isn't as quick as he once was but his increased strength has made him stouter at the point. A lingering groin injury has reduced his impact. After season-ending injuries to Marcus Tubbs and Chuck Darby, rookie Brandon Mebane (6-1, 314) has held the fort surprisingly well. A third-round pick, Mebane is quick, strong and athletic but too often can't find the ball. Craig Terrell (6-2½, 290), a high-effort player, and shock absorber Howard Green (6-2, 320) also play extensively inside.

LINEBACKERS

All three possess big-play capability. MLB Lofa Tatupu (6-0, 242), a second-round pick in '05, and SLB Julian Peterson (6-3, 240) made the Pro Bowl. Tatupu plays far beyond his pedestrian speed and athletic ability because of near-instantaneous recognition. He runs well-timed blitzes and just finds the ball. Peterson, drafted at No. 16 in 2000, two slots after the Packers took Bubba Franks, loses focus at times on early downs and can be a late reactor. However, he has great speed and hitting ability, and rushes the passer from two- and three-point stances as well as any LB. Highly aggressive WLB Leroy Hill (6-1, 238) also flies all over the field and probably is the team's most underrated player. He doesn't take on blocks well.


SECONDARY

LC Marcus Trufant (5-11, 197), the 11th pick in '03, gained confidence in techniques taught by Mora and was a well-deserved Pro Bowl pick. He has become much more physical, both against run and pass, and covered well all season. RC Kelly Jennings (5-11, 175), the 31st pick in '06, is a fast, skinny finesse player with very good speed. He plays soft and can be slow to locate the ball. Nickel back Jordan Babineaux (6-0, 206), a former safety, is physical from the slot and has good ball skills, but his speed is marginal. The free-agent signings of SS Deon Grant (6-1½, 215) and SS Brian Russell (6-2, 210) paid off. Grant, a six-year starter in Carolina and Jacksonville, has become a more willing tackler to go with excellent ball skills and good speed. He still gets out of position too much. Russell, a four-year starter in Minnesota and Cleveland, makes sure everyone is lined up properly and is an OK tackler. However, he lacks speed and gets outflanked on some deep balls.

SPECIAL TEAMS
K Josh Brown, who had six winning field goals (50, 36, 42, 54, 38 and 50 yards) in 2005 and '06, didn't attempt any this season but improved his kickoffs. P Ryan Plackemeier rallied from a poor regular season (40.0 gross, 34.6 net) to put four of his seven punts down inside the 20 Saturday. The risk-taking Burleson, with two TDs on returns, has an uncanny ability to make the first tackler miss. The coverage units are subpar.

Book on the Seahawks

GAME-BREAKER
Nate Burleson probably is the fastest of the Seahawks' top four wide receivers and one of the NFL's top two-way kick returners. He caught nine TD passes, averaging a team-high 13.9 yards per catch, and returned two kicks for scores. Playing for Minnesota, he had three TD catches against Green Bay in three games in 2004. All three (8, 68 and 19 yards) came with the departed Ahmad Carroll in coverage.

WEAKEST LINK
Mike Holmgren's best punter in Seattle, Jeff Feagles, was allowed to leave as an unrestricted free agent in March 2003. In 2007, at age 41, he still punted effectively for the New York Giants. In '06, Holmgren used a seventh-round draft choice on Ryan Plackemeier, an overweight punter from Wake Forest. After a solid rookie season, he finished this season ranked 30th in average net at 34.3. He did punt well Saturday night.

McGINN'S VIEW
It was reported over the weekend that the Seahawks this season posted the fewest penalties per game (3.69) of any NFL team in 34 years. That would date to the New England Patriots of 1973 as coached by Chuck Fairbanks. That team averaged merely 3.57. For the record, Seattle was charged with 59 penalties for 428 yards, both NFL lows. On the other hand, Green Bay ranked 29th in penalties with 113 and 31st in penalty yardage with 1,006. Mike Holmgren's first team in Green Bay ranked an unseemly 19th in penalties. After that, his clubs ranked seventh, fourth, fourth, sixth, tied for fifth and tied for fifth. His seven teams in Green Bay averaged 88 penalties; his nine teams in Seattle have averaged 85.6.

It has been written and said over the years that Holmgren's years of service on the NFL Competition Committee won him some breaks from officials. One of his predecessors on that prestigious committee, Don Shula, drew the same comments when his Dolphins most always had so few penalties. That's sour grapes. Like Shula, Holmgren always coached his teams to play with precision and discipline. And it's another reason why his Seahawks are a dangerous opponent

14 comments:

  1. I see how this works, instead of supplying St Ides style indepth analysis that goes on for paragraphs, you simply copy/pasted someone elses prose - or was the second part all yours?

    Either way, that guy McGinn had some lame analysis - read this line "They're the kind of team you might be able to get 30, 28 (points) on, but also if it goes their way can hold you to 10 or less."

    that is SOOO chicken shit. Bob "Pussy McGinn" is my new nickname for him. I'm surprised he didn't write 'if the packers score more points than the seahawks, their chances of winning will be far greater'

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  2. That was a quote from a "defensive coach", not McGinn. He gets a lot of good insight by not naming his sources. But yes, occasionally the insights are lame.

    Jeez, this is a tough crowd! But here at SBS we pay attention to our reader. Next time, no cut and paste. I'll re-word the fucker like everybody else does.

    BTW, is it me or does it seem like Anonymous has become the moral compass of this blog???

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  3. The position by position breakdown is pretty good, but I have to agree with Anonymous that he makes some not-so-great generalizations.

    When are people going to admit the Seattle defense is good? They have an excellent pass rush, awesome linebackers, a Pro Bowl CB, and 2 safeties who play very intelligently and rarely make mistakes, yet "Seattle's defense isn't all that good" ?? WTF? I'd like to know who those "scouts" are, because those were the ones quoted who seem most off.

    "Hasselbeck isn't a tough guy."?? The dude has been banged up the past 2 seasons and has only missed 4 games because a Vikings cheap shot artist almost tore his ACL.

    Also, I wouldn't say it was Holmgren that traded a first rounder for Branch. Holmgren liked Darrell Jackson. It was the front office that had the problem with his whining about a new contract promised to him by the previous regime. So the GM traded for Branch knowing that Jackson would be gone soon.

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  4. Awesome article on Hasselbeck, his time in Green Bay, and his early relationship with Favre. I'm surprised I've never seen this written before, but apparently the Bears tried to sign him off the Packers practice squad, and he turned them down:

    Hasselbeck in Green Bay

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  5. Moral compass eh? Neah, just keeping it real. The posts can't be all massaging the perenium, we need some unique analysis from formal educated SBS bloggers, and by formal educated I mean we took "Evil", the class.

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  6. I like the little story about the signed ball at the end of the story - pretty funny.

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  7. Hahaha, I almost forgot about that class.

    I didn't attend as much as I should have, or do all the readings. But yeah, that's something to be proud of.

    "Philisophy 303 - Evil"

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  8. Pats vs Jags opening line was +12, now its upto +13.5

    thats WAY too many points for a playoff game. There's no way the Pats blow them out.

    Key to beating the Patriots - run the ball, run the ball some more, and then run it again - regardless of the results - in the end, if you have a good running game, you will be successful, plus it keeps the Pats Offense off the board. If you limiti Brady's chances, then you have a better chance of winning, its that simple.

    How about a little love for the Pats - just a little SBS column on the Pats/Jags game. I know it means NOTHING to both of you.....but you can't cover the JV all the time

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  9. What??? We were going to deal with Pats / Jags in our weekly predictions! You want more than that??? Sheesh! I guess I owe the board something after my cut and paste. We'll see, gotta pack tonight for the long journey home...

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  10. I just realized the colors of this blog are decidedly Seahawk colors.

    How does Samiclaus feel about writing about his beloved Packers under the guise of Seahawk heaven?

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  11. Well, the Seahawks do have our beloved former coach and beloved backup QB running the show. I believe there is a special kinship that exists between these organizations, so no it never bothered me at all. Of course, if the Seahawks win on Saturday look for me to change the skins shortly thereafter to a fabulous green and gold. Then I'll be going into hibernation until September.

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  12. On a happy note, Favre has indicated playing next year, so more Favre looks likely.

    Isn't there anything I can say to make you guys hate each other's team, if even for a little while?

    St Ides - Samiclaus emailed me directly, and called you and your seahawk team a bunch of pussies, and then went on to say how overrated Tatatpu was, something like "the only LB'ing he's good at, was lying on his back spread eagle with hasselstiff givin him the business"

    paraphrasing of course

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  13. Working on it now, a little patience. :P

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