Crazy week this week. Basically the thing that really screws things up are teams that are locked into their seeding already. Some of the coaches are saying "We're going to stay healthy and rest our starters mostly." (Makes sense.) Some are saying, "Well, our starters will play a bit to stay sharp, but probably get pulled early." (Also makes sense.) And then you have those those who are saying "We're going to play all our starters and play to win!" (Doesn't make as much sense...) What further confuses things is that both Atlanta and Philly benched their starters last week and lost rather handily. So do they try and recover and get the momentum going again? Or do they just continue to play it safe and not risk a championship-dream-demolishing injury?
I can almost see it now... Rams win the early game, which means the Seahawks need to beat Atlanta to win the divison.. Oh the 40-yard scramble for the game winning touchdown, Michael Vick takes a huge hit as he crosses the goal line and breaks his leg into tiny pieces. Atlanta wins and has some momentum going into the playoffs! But how far are they getting with Matt Schaub as their QB?
On to the picks....
St. Ides in blue, Samichlaus in Green.
Records so far:
St. Ides: 21-25
Samichlaus: 22-24
Home team in CAPS:
Playoff implications:
RAMS (+3.5) over Jets
Yes, I dislike both teams. Yes, I hope both teams miss the playoffs. And guess what, they can! Here's how:
We need Rams (vs Jets), Bills (vs Pitt), Broncos (vs Indy), Seahawks (vs Atlanta), and Vikings (at Wash) all to win, and the Saints-Panthers game to not end in a tie. In this scenario, Seattle wins the West, Vikes get the 5 seed at 9-7, and Rams lose the tie-breaker to either the Saints or Panthers, whoever wins will be 8-8 just like the Rams. (The Rams lost to both teams head-to-head this season.) Oh, and this is also a emotional security pick. If the Rams win and Seattle loses, the Rams win the less. Having picked them will ease the sting of that just a little.
This is an “Organization” game. In other words both teams have their flaws, so it comes down to the better organization, and the Jets are the Hindenburg of Organizations. The Rams win outright.
Saints (+7.5) over PANTHERS
This is basically a playoff game. Winner most likely gets in. Although there are some scenarios where the winner could still go home. I'm going with the Saints. Just because people are kissing the Panthers' asses a little too much. And because Aaron Brooks is due to win a big game, right? Uhm, don't answer that. More than a touchdown worth of points is a lot to give in a playoff game. Even against the Aints. Let's just move on before I change my mind...
Yeah, well I’m jumping all over that Cats bandwagon. Right now they are the hottest team in the NFC, and frankly I hope you’re right. They’re the one team I see giving the Packers fits in that first playoff game. Cats win and cover.
Steelers (+8.5) over BUFFALO
Okay, this is the first of several games where you have a team locked into their seeding versus a team playing for their playoff life. But still, that's a lot of points. Steelers won't have Ben or the Bus in there. And most of their defense will probably play most of the game. And oh by the way, Tommy Maddox was doing a pretty decent job at QB before he got hurt. He could throw just enough TDs to keep this close. Bills win a close one. But won't cover.
This is a hard game to pick. I’m going with Buffalo to win and cover. Buffalo is the more desperate team and I think Cowher mails in the Steeler performance. If the Steelers decide to keep it close then your pick is right on. I just don’t see it happening.
Colts (+8.5) over BRONCOS
Watch this: "Okay, this is the second of several games where you have a team locked into their seeding versus a team playing for their playoff life. But still, that's a lot of points." Copy and paste is a wonderful thing. Dungy claims he's going to play his starters and play to win. But 50 would be a nice TD total for Peyton to stop at. And this could very well be a first round matchup next week, except in Indy. So do the Colts want to tip their hand very much? Probably not. Everything screams take the Broncos. Except one thing: Jake Plummer. Actually, I kinda hope the Broncos win this, so they get in and I can bet my house against Plummer next weekend.
Denver at home. Dungy would be insane to leave his starters in for very long in Colorado. Denver keeps it close or wins outright. Can I cut and paste Denver is the more desperate team?
Falcons (+5.5) over SEAHAWKS
Another game where one team is locked into a seed, and the other team could still be battling for positioning. The funny thing about this game is the Seahawks will know by kickoff whether they need to win or not. If the Rams beat the Jets in the early game, Seattle needs a win for the division title. If the Rams lose, they have it clinched and can relax a bit. And we're getting mixed signals from Atlanta, who lost to NO last week while benching several starters. They say this week they're playing their starters and playing to win. But can they really risk a Vick injury in a game that means nothing to them?
All week I’ve been listening to Mike Sherman say that he was going to start his starters and they are going to play to win, and I’ve thought “That’s pretty cool and unique!” What a fool I’ve been. All these asswipes are saying it. OK, back to my analysis. Seattle is the more desperate team. Seattle wins and covers.
SKINS (+3.5) over Vikes
I'll let Samichlaus drop the "insider stat" he came up with for this game. But I think I liked the Skins even before hearing that juicy piece of info. Time for the Vikes and Culpepper to choke yet again. One writer joked that Tice recently had his contract renewed "Through 2005" but if they lose this one, that could mean "Through January 3rd, 2005". I'm willing to bet they don't have Moss throw any passes in this one.
Thank you sir! The insider stat St. Ides is referring to is this: In their last 15 games outdoors, the Viqueens have gone 1-14. The 1 was a victory over the completely unprepared Packers last season. Want more? Karen and I were listening to Mike Tice on NFL Network last night, and we both quickly came to the conclusion that he might be the stupidest man on the planet. He sounds like Raymond’s brother on “Everybody Loves Raymond”. Gibbs wins at home as Samichlaus delivers one last Christmas gift for the season.
Meaningless:
Cowboys (+3.5) over GIANTS
Meaningless game. Would be nice for Eli to get a win before the season ends. I don't see it.
Is that fat racist fuck still starting Testaverde? No offense to the Orientals but I think the Giants run a few Jap plays and pull it out. I’ll guess the Giants cover.
Niners (+14.5) over PATS
Yikes, that's a lot of points to give a team that will likely be facing practice squad players. Here's one of those games where you really don't know how long New England will keep their starters in. But I'm guessing not long enough to hold onto a 15 point lead. Pats hang on to win, but don't cover.
The Pats may just win this one 14 – 0 depending on the weather. I’ll take the Niners with the pointless points.
Miami (+10.5) over BALTIMORE
What can I say... in a week where things will likely be very wacky, why not take the points when in doubt? Ravens have an outside chance of making the playoffs still, but they need a lot of help. And the Pitt D last week exposed just how awful the Ravens O is. They'll need to pitch a shutout to cover this spread.
I’ll say this, since Wannstead was fired, the fins have been in every game. The players love the interim coach and will send him off with a victory. Reason 35 why Dave Wannstead was a terrible head coach: Wannstead’s defensive coordinator when he was Bears head coach was, you guessed it, Packer defensive coordinator Bob Slowik.
Lions (+3.5) over TITANS
The Billy Volek-Drew Bennett Show came crashing back down to earth last week. (Sadly, two weeks too late to save my fantasy season. Bastards.) Volek might not even play this week. And Harrington is starting to quiet some rumors that he sucks. I'm not quite sure he doesn't suck, but I'm betting that he sucks less than whoever the Titans 3rd string QB is.
The Goose had a great line about Harrington: “I wouldn't see him ordering a beer anytime soon. He's over there with the champagne and caviar and the strawberries and chocolate. “-- Fox broadcaster (and ex-NFLer) Tony Siragusa on Lions QB Joey Harrington
I’ll take the Titans, who I have taken and lost with all season.
Browns (+10.5) over TEXANS
I really don't have much to say about this game. Sticking with the points.
Do we really have to analyze this one? Do you think our reader cares? I’ll take the Browns because every time our reader sees David Carr on TV she gives him the finger.
CARDS (-3.5) over Bucs
Just because I needed to pick at least one favorite this week. And because it seems Arizona was really only that bone-headed Denny Green 4 game benching of McNown from being a playoff team. Their defense looks pretty good, and those two big receivers are very promising.
Plus Gruden has completely lost control over the Bucs. Cards win and cover.
EAGLES (-1.5) over Bengals
After that horrible Monday night showing against the Rams, surely the Eagles want to work on some stuff and put in a strong effort without TO before their playoff game in two weeks, right? Surely they realize that if they bench their starters again, it will be almost a whole month between meaningful games by the time they host a game for the right to go to the NFC Championship game, no? I'm giving Andy Reid enough credit to say yes, they'll try and do some things to win this game. In a way, I hope I'm wrong, cause I'd love for Seattle to go into Philly against a very rusty team if they ever make it that far.
I agree. Reid’s a better coach than that. Philly wins by a TD.
Packers (+3.5) over DA BEARS
Packers are locked into the 3 seed and don't have much to play for aside from avenging an early season loss to Chicago in Green Bay. But the Bears offense is just awful enough that the Packers D should be able to stay within 3, even with Green Bay's second stringers playing. Big day for Mr. Poopie Pants on the way!
Easy there. Keep calling him Poopie Pants and we’ll lose our reader. Besides, he pooped into a hamper. That’s not as bad, right? PS: He banged up his shoulder against the Vikes and is listed a questionable. I’m thinking we’re going to see Tony Fischer and Vontay Leech. OK, here’s the deal. This is a huge local rivalry. Think Yankees / Red Sox and you’re starting to get close. The Packers have not been swept by the Bears since 1991, and I don’t think they are going to just lay down. If they lose, it’s by a field goal, but I’m picking them to win outright.
Jags (+2.5) over RAIDERS
Who cares. Jags faded fast after a good start and a lot of people calling them this year's Panthers. They blew it last week though, getting shutout by Houston and pretty much killing their playoff hopes.
The same Jags that beat the Packers at Lambeau? Christ, we suck at home. We’re 5-2 on the road and 4-4 at home. Wait, sorry, I’m supposed to be analyzing this game. Uhh… Jags with the points.
Chiefs (-3.5) over CHARGERS
Chiefs O is finally rolling. I hear Vermeil is already planning for next year. Would be nice to go out on a winning note against a divisional rival. PS: Chargers have nothing to play for, locked into the #4 seed, and will likely rest starters.
Sounds good. I’ve liked KC all year, it’s about time they did something on the road. Cheifs win and cover.
No comments:
Post a Comment