Young QB Analysis - AFC

The NFC preview will come next week. For now, you'll have to settle for my analysis of the plethora of young QBs in the league. Oh, and this tidbit on Mr. Viagra/Steroids himself:

Rafael Palmeiro wore earplugs last night after being booed in his first at-bat at Rogers Centre, more backlash from his steroid-related suspension. In his second at-bat, television cameras gave viewers a close-up of a plug in his left exposed ear. The other ear was covered by a flap on his batting helmet, but two plugs sat in his locker.
Awwww, what's a matter, Raffy? Can't take a little booing? You lying sack of shit?
Okay, so I mentioned this in the AFC preview earlier this week, and figured it deserved it's own article. About half the starting QBs in the NFL this season are what I would call "unproven" players, entering somewhere between their 1st and 5th years in the league. It seems that generally the press is expecting most of these QBs to be on the verge of breaking out. Typically, they're being given the benefit of the doubt, and given every chance to succeed. Why? Well, usually there are two reasons: First, these are generally high round draft picks, many of them first rounders. Secondly, with the lack of quality depth at QB these days, most teams do not have a better option. I mean, how many 2nd string QBs are out there right now who could actually step in and keep the team at about the same level of play as the starter? Not very many. I'd say 5, tops.

So here's what I'm going to do. List each QB, what year this will be for him, rate the amount of pressure/expectations he's under on a scale of 1-5 (1 being not much pressure, 5 being ready to get the hook after a bad performance), and then rate his chance of success for the season, and his career, also on a scale of 1-5 (1 being out of the league within a few years, 5 being Hall of Fame material). Oh, what the hell, I'll also list each QBs backup, so you have an idea of where part of the pressure rating came from:

Good Potential:

J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills
Experience: 2nd Year
Backup: Kelly Holcomb
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
The Bills would have been a playoff team last year had they won a couple close games. Those losses can be indirectly blamed on Bledsoe's ineffectiveness. So Losman should not have to do a whole lot for this team to win games and have a shot at the playoffs. Their running game and defense should be good enough to make the playoffs. That said, Kelly Holcomb is a former starter in Cleveland who has shown flashes of talent in the past. If Losman struggles (ie, loses a game or two for the team), he could see the bench if it would help their playoff chances.
Career Success: 3
This category will be the toughest to judge for this young guys, but what the hell, I'll feeling psychic. Losman will be a quality starter in Buffalo for years, maybe even making a Pro Bowl or two.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Experience: 3rd year
Backup: Jon Kitna
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 4
The pressure is on for Palmer. He has the weapons around him. He has a few years under his belt. The Bengals are expected to be better this year, and that falls on his shoulders. With a decent Jon Kitna waiting in the wings, there is a little bit of looking over his shoulder, but not much. I doubt Palmer gets benched this year, but this could be the year he starts hearing the "bust" label being kicked around if he doesn't perform. I think he'll be okay.
Career Success: 3
I actually like Palmer more than most of the guys on this list. He has a talented young receiver in Chad Johnson who he can throw to for years, and a talented young RB in Rudi Johnson to take some pressure off him. However, I refuse to give him anything higher than a 3 in Career Success because he plays for the Bungles.

Solid Starters:

Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens
Experience: 3rd year
Backup: Anthony Wright
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 4
I'd have maybe knocked his pressure up a notch if it weren't Anthony Wright as his backup. Who? Anthony Wright, who actually started a few games for the Cowboys a few years ago. He's awful. I think Boller will be okay because they did go out and get him Derrick Mason to throw to, Jamal Lewis should have a decent year running the ball, and the Ravens defense will keep the other team's points low.
Career Success: 3
As long as he doesn't stink up the joint, he should be a serviceable starter in Baltimore for years. But with their offensive system and defense, he won't exactly be putting up huge numbers through the air.

Drew Brees, San Diego Chargers
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Phillip Rivers
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 3
Expectations are high after the huge season Brees and the Chargers had last year. Combine that with the fact that 1st round pick Phillip Rivers is waiting in the wings, and Brees does not have a lot of room for error. This is a pretty weird situation. The Chargers were about to give up on Brees, which they signaled by drafting Rivers. (Well, actually, they drafted Eli, than traded him to the Giants for Rivers, but anyways, they acquired a highly rated new young QB to replace Brees.) Rivers had a fairly long holdout to begin training camp, and that prevented him from even competing for the opening day starting job. Brees started by default, and played so well he never gave it up. So how does Brees respond this year? I think he plays well. I think he leads the Chargers to at least contending for a playoff spot. And I think he plays well enough to keep Rivers on the bench and make San Diego management have a really tough decision about who they keep as their future QB.
Career Success: 3
Whether he stays in San Diego or goes elsewhere, I think Brees will be a solid starter in this league. Maybe even make a Pro Bowl or two.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Experience: 2nd year
Backup: Tommy Maddox
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Expectations are pretty high after last year's impressive win totals. But the wins were really his only impressive number. I'm still not sold on this kid, and I'll say it again - he's like a younger, more hyped Trent Dilfer. He manages games while his running game and defense does an excellent job of putting him in position to succeed. The high expectations and the fact that Tommy Maddox is a capable backup puts a lot of pressure on Big Ben to succeed. And do we remember how he played in the playoffs when under a lot of pressure? Poorly. I really doubt they'd bench him at all because it'd be bad for his confidence and long-term growth, but don't be surprised if he comes down with a phantom injury and Maddox steps in during some key games late in the season.
Career Success: 3
I'll say it again - I'm not convinced he has the talent to be a big-time QB in this league.

Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville Jaguars
Experience: 3rd year
Backup: David Garrand
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 3
Honestly, I don't know what to think of Leftwich quite yet. From what I've seen and read, he's big and tough and has a pretty good arm. He's not very mobile though. Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith are getting very old. The Jaguars defense is pretty good, but not sure it will be as good as last year, when I think they overachieved a bit. Still, they do have two exciting young receivers in Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, so maybe if he can develop with them, he can put together a decent year. I don't see Jacksonville as a passing team though really.
Career Success: 3
Like I said above, how he develops will depend largely on how his young receivers work out. I think he can be a solid starter, but not much beyond that.

Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Experience: 2nd year
Backup: NA
Pressure: 1 since he likely won't play… 4 if he sees any substantial time as a starter
Season Success: 3
Basically, he needs Brees to get hurt or REALLY stink it up in order to get playing time. If that does happen, he had better perform. If Brees has another good season, Phillips will likely be traded. If Phillips gets playing time and stinks it up, he will likely be traded.
Career Success: 3
Hard to say, since he has yet to start a single NFL game. But I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he lands on his feet somewhere and develops into a decent starter.

Busts:

Chad Pennington, New York Jets
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Jay Fiedler
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 2
He's looked awful in the preseason when he's played. There's some questions about how healthy his arm is. Curtis Martin has gotten a year older, and may lose a step. Somehow, this guy has gotten pretty solid press in the NY media over his career, and it seems people still have faith in him. But he hasn't really been much more than slightly above average, and his bristling at media criticism last year is not a good sign.
Career Success: 2
Remember Richard Todd and Ken O'Brien, other former Jet QBs? Ken, Chad. Chad, Ken. Richard, Chad. Chad, Richard. Meet the players he'll most likely be mentioned in the same breath when his career is over.

David Carr, Houston Texans
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Tony Banks
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
Of all the QBs on this list, I'd say Carr and Harrington are the ones under the most pressure in terms of "Okay, you've had time to adjust to the NFL, let's see some results!" type of expectations. Luckily for Carr, he has god awful QBs on the bench behind him. So his job should be safe. The problem with Carr is his offensive line, and it has been his whole career. Houston has given up more sacks than any other team over the past 3 years. By far. It's not even close. I'm just pulling these numbers out of my ass because I'm too lazy to find where I read them last week, but it's something like 100 sacks. And the next team on the list is at like 60. Or something like that. Anyways, I do like his weapons with Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis, but I think this defense might put him in position to come from behind a bit too often.
Career Success: 2
Unless Houston admits defeat and gives up on him soon, and drafts a new QB, he'll probably be leading them to mediocre records for several years to come. Maybe he gets a second chance somewhere else in another few years, but I just don't see him as having the talent to become a top QB.

Total Busts:

A.J. Feeley, Miami Dolphins
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Gus Frerotte
Pressure: 5
Season Success: 2
Actually, Frerotte is listed as the starter right now, but that could change any day now. Feeley showed some glimpses of ability as a backup in Philly, where he put together some impressive wins while playing for an injured McNabb a few years ago. Miami thought they'd found their starter for years to come. They were wrong. I don't know what's wrong with this guy, but he just is not accurate with his throws. Sometimes he just looks lost. Not really a good omen.
Career Success: 2
Career backup, if he doesn't pull it together soon, he may be reduced to career 3rd stringer. Still, those games in Philly should allow him to remain employed in the NFL for awhile still.