St. Ides NFC Preview

Expect a busy week here, with the NFL regular season starting on Thursday!

Here's what you can expect this week:
Today: NFC Preview
Tomorrow: NFC Young QB Analysis
Thursday: Week 1 Picks!

If that doesn't keep you from being productive at work this week, I don't know what will…

One quick tidbit borrowed from Peter King, for Samichlaus:

Brett Favre needs a 266-yard passing day Sunday against his old quarterback coach, Steve Mariucci, in Detroit to become the third NFL player to throw for 50,000 yards.

East:
1.) Philly - Despite the TO distraction and his feud with McNabb, this is still the team to beat. Their defense remains largely intact. However, if McNabb or Owens gets hurt, all bets are off. The thing that is still scary is their lack of a consistent running game. 12-4.

2.) Giants - Eli, year two. I think he progresses. I think the Giants D will be solid as usual. And I think Tiki Barber will continue to be quietly very effective. I also think coach Tom Coughlin will begin to really grate on the nerves of the players, and cost them a game or two. 8-8.

3.) Dallas - I'm sick of hearing about Julius Jones, Demarcus Ware, Drew Bledsoe, and Bill Parcells. I don't like Parcells, I never have. And I think he's overrated. How many years has he been in Dallas now, like 3 or 4? And his team is as big a question mark as ever. Some writers are saying Bledsoe plays well for Parcells, and blah blah blah, but I don't buy it. The good thing is we should get a few entertaining press conferences from a frustrated Tuna. 7-9.

4.) Redskins - Really, I think the non-Philly based teams in this division could finish in any order, between 9-7 and 7-9. Skins included. Gibbs claims that he'll use Clinton Portis better (as an outside runner rather than a power back). The Redskins D should still be pretty damn good. But until Patrick Ramsey proves he belongs as an NFL starter and gets their passing game going, their offense will struggle. 7-9.

North:
1.) Vikings - Interesting team to watch this season. Moss is gone. Several quality receivers try to fill his spot. Including the latest rumor that ex-Seahawk and current alcoholic Koren Dropinson will sign with them this week. I think their offense will be okay, and their defense added enough new parts to be improved. That ought to be enough talent to win the division, despite Mike Tice costing them 1 or 2 close games. 11-5.

2.) Packers - It's all about the D. Well, and the offensive line. For Favre's sake (and I do like the guy, despite the media kissing his ass on a daily basis), I hope the line gives him time to throw, and he can go out on a good note. If this is his last season. Which who knows if it will be or not. But will the defense be able to stop anybody? I'll let my colleague answer that one. ;) For now, I'm guessing 9-7 and squeaking into the wild card.

3.) Bears - The Rex Grossman injury hurt them. If Kyle Orton can settle in at QB, he has the ability to win a few games. Cedric Benson's long holdout will keep him off the field for a few weeks I'm guessing. Still, their defense should be good enough to win a few games and keep them out of the division basement. 7-9.

4.) Lions - Will the real Joey Harrington please step up? I'll save my further analysis for the QB breakdown tomorrow, but I don't see the Lions offense exactly lighting it up, nor their defense shutting teams down. 6-10.

South:
1.) Carolina - They almost made the playoffs last year despite their #1 WR and top 3 RBs being injured for most of the year. They really should have made the playoffs, and might have even won a game. In any case, I think their defense continues to be one of the best, and their offense is good enough to win a bunch of games. 11-5

2.) Atlanta - I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it. The Atlanta defense is still pretty good, and they'll probably contend for a playoff spot. But I just see Vick choking away one two many wins this year. Whether it be him running around in the backfield and getting blind-sided to fumble, or heaving up a 60-yard throw that gets picked off, turnovers and bad decisions will kill him this year. 8-8.

3.) New Orleans - Let's talk about the team first: inconsistent, underachieving, with a coach of questionable skill who has been rumored to being close to fired dozens of times. Take that, and combine it with the horrible hurricane disaster in that region and the uncertainty of where they'll play their home games and you don't exactly have the recipe for a team that's going to make the playoffs. 8-8.

4.) Tampa Bay - I think their defense will still be decent, and Cadillac Williams gives them an exciting new running game to watch. But I don't see Brian Griese (despite being an ex-Wolverine) as the type of QB who is a difference maker. 6-10.

West:
1.) Seattle - Same top 10 offense. New improved defense. Low expectations. I like our chances. The schedule does look a bit rough this season, but if you look at the combined records from last year of their opponents, it's something like the 5th easiest schedule. Of course, having the likes of San Fran and Arizona on that schedule twice kind of tips the scales a bit. Still, Seattle should go at least 5-1 in divisional games. They need to learn to beat the goddamned Rams. 5-1 against the division, 5-5 against the rest of the league. Sounds about right. 10-6.

2.) St. Louis - I guess until Seattle starts beating the Rams on a regular basis, people will still like the Rams to win the division. Still, this team has Mike Martz as their coach. He's awful. And Marc Bulger throws way too many interceptions. Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk are a year older. And though Torry Holt is still dope and Stephen Jackson is supposed to step in for Faulk adequately, their defense still stinks. 9-7

3.) Arizona - The trendy pick for a team on the rise. Someone somewhere even called them "this year's Chargers". I see one big difference - last year's Chargers had a young QB still maturing step up and play well for them. This year's Cardinals has an aging QB who has gotten worse and worse each year. Warner is one concussion away from retirement, and that big hit might come in the first few weeks with their weak offensive line. Also, rookie J.J. Arrington who was supposed to be their savior at RB has been unimpressive in camp and pre-season. 8-8

4.) San Fran - 1st overall pick Alex Smith looked so bad in his first two preseason games that he has been benched for Tim Rattay. Their defense has a few recognizable names, but also some CBs that get toasted regularly. RB Kevan Barlow has been disappointing since given the full-time workload. If they finish worst overall, how can they pass on USC QB Matt Leinart with the first overall pick? Has any team ever taken a QB with the #1 overall pick two years in a row? I think I said it then, but I'll say it again. They should have taken Michigan WR Braylon Edwards this year, and aimed for Leinart next year. (PS - Edwards has looked awesome for the Browns this preseason.) 3-13.

Playoffs:

Wild Card Round:
Panthers 26, Rams 23
Seahawks 34, Packers 31

Divisional Round:
Eagles 27, Panthers 23
Seahawks 24, Vikings 23

NFC Championship:
Seahawks 19, Eagles 17
Super Bowl:
Seahawks 56, Patriots 0

Okay, well, maybe I'm stretching it a bit there. But that WAS the final score of Super Bowl XL in Madden 06, which I finished over the weekend. I knocked off the Bucs and Panthers in the playoffs, in close games, but dismantled the Patriots, who could not get a running game going, and Brady threw 3 picks.

Do I really think Seattle can reach the Super Bowl? Yes, I do. I have more faith this year than last year. Last year they were the "trendy" pick, which was the kiss of death. This year, most people are picking them to finish 2nd or 3rd in their division, even though their offense is exactly the same, and their defense should be better.