Week 13 Picks

Better late than never, right? Samichlaus' analysis is a bit brief this week cause of a tight schedule, so he apologizes for that.

St. Ides
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 91-100

Samichlaus
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 99-92

Bears +6.5 over STEELERS
Big Ben has a thumb injury that might be a break and will definitely need surgery in the off-season. Considering I never really trusted him to win games with his arm in the first place, that does not bode well against a Bears defense that's looking more and more impressive each week. Although the Steelers really need this game badly to stay in the playoff hunt and it is at home, that's a lot of points to give a team giving up only 10.6 points per game. Even if the Steelers manage 17 (a whole TD more than what Chicago is giving up on average), all the Bears need is more than 10 points to cover. Steelers 13, Bears 10.

Big Ben had a career game last week, bad thumb and all.... Steelers 24 Bears 10

BROWNS +12.5 over Bengals
Braylon Edwards had his "break out" game last week (though he's had some decent games this season), then tore his ACL and is done for the year. Charlie Frye will no doubt throw a few picks against the opportunistic Bengals D. So why am I taking the Browns? Good question. Divisional rivalry, cold weather, home team getting points, this is a 10-point game. Bengals 30, Browns 20.

I like the Browns to cover in a low scoring game Bengals 20, Browns 10 Hey, I guess it is a 10 point game!

Texans +6.5 over TITANS
The Texans lost a heart-breaker last week, and should probably lose out so they get a shot at Reggie Bush (even if their offensive skill positions aren't the real problem - their offensive line is). Still, the Titans are bad enough for this to be close enough. Titans 26, Texans 23.

Who cares??? Why do they even play this one. Titans 24 Texans 13

Colts -8.5 over JAGUARS
See previous notes about taking the Colts no matter what the spread. Some people are saying this could be the first Colts loss. I don't buy it, especially with backup QB David Garrard (or something like that) in for the Jags. Colts 27, Jaguars 17.

No comment: Jaguars 31 Colts 30

Patriots -3.5 over BILLS
Bills lost a tough one last week as Sage Frickin Rosenfals (or something like that) picked them apart, including a very predictable fade pattern with time running out on the clock. J.P. Losman hasn't exactly shown that he can be the Bills franchise QB of the future. I think the Pats defense ought to be able to shut him down. Oh, and the Patriots are quietly getting healthy, with Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk back on the field. Patriots 23, Bills 13.

Pats win easy: Patriots 27 Bills 10

Raiders -3.5 over JETS
J-E-T-S stink stink stink! Your team is in trouble when the biggest news of the week is that the opposing QB may be who they want to play for them next season. Yes, the hot rumor is that Kerry Whiskey Collins could be in a Jets uniform next year. Who cares? It's Kerry Collins, not anybody good. Raiders 23, Jets 16.

I heard Herm Edwards had a meltdown this week. It had to be bad to make the news in Richmond. Raiders 27 Jets 14

Rams +7.5 over VIKINGS
Vikings have been on a roll with Brad Johnson not making mistakes while replacing Culpepper. Rams defense can't stop anybody. And the Harvard kid didn't look so great going up against a real (ie, not the Texans) defense last week. Still, you gotta just pick the unreasonable pick sometimes, cause there's always games that go the way they shouldn't. Rams 30, Vikings 28

Vikes are coming on strong.... Vikings 27 Rams 17

Bucanneers +5.5 over PANTHERS
The NFC South battle will be a good one down the stretch, with the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons all playing each other. First I was thinking "There's no way Chris Simms beats the Panthers defense." But the more I think about it, the more I like how the Bucs defense is playing. Ronde Barber is playing like a man possessed, and I think he can bait Delhomme into a pick or two. This ought to be a pretty close defensive game. Which is why I'm taking the points. Panthers 20, Bucs 16.

Both teams are equally desperate. Take the better team: Cats 24 Bucs 17

Giants -6.5 over EAGLES
Westbrook is now done for the season too. The Eagles downward spiral continues, and if the Giants are a playoff team (and most people, including myself, think they are), they take care of business. If the Seahawks defense can disrupt the Philly offense like that, what will the Giants offense do? Giants 27, Eagles 10.

Seattle effectively killed the Eagles season last week. They're done. Giants 31 Eagles 13

Niners +16.5 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle barely beat the Niners in San Fran, with a failed two-point conversion being the only thing not sending the game to OT. So that should help the Seahawks not take this game too lightly. Still, after the thrashing they gave the Eagles on MNF and the sudden "respect" they are finally getting around the media, their confidence has to be sky high right now. They went from generally ranked in the bottom of the top 10 in most "power rankings" after barely escaping with the win against the Giants (usually behind the Bears, Panthers, and sometimes even the Chargers), to a consensus top 3 team (always behind the Colts, sometimes behind the Bengals). This should be an easy win at home, but I'm not giving over two touchdowns to a team we only beat by 2 points three weeks ago. Seahawks 30, Niners 16

That's a lot of points. Too many for my taste. Seattle 34 San Fran 21

Redskins -3.5 over CARDINALS
Skins still have a shot at making the playoffs. Cardinals do not. Cardinals still have NO running game, which means the Redskins team can tee off on Warner. Over/under on Warner turnovers this game: 3 and a half. Redskins 20, Cardinals 10.

The Skins still have something to play for.. Redskins 27 Cardinals 13

BRONCOS -14.5 over Ravens
Ray Lewis is done for the year. Jamal Lewis is still out of shape from his little trip to prison. Kyle Boller looks awful. The Ravens needed a last minute field goal to beat the hapless Texans last week (after allowing the legendary David Carr to march down the field for the go ahead TD). Broncos 28, Ravens 13.

Denver should have no problems at home. Denver 31 Ravens 13

Chiefs +3.5 over COWBOYS
Future Hall of Famer Willie Roaf is back for the Chiefs offensive line. (And yes, that's two weeks in a row I referred to an offensive lineman as a Future Hall of Famer.) Larry Johnson is running as well as any back in the league right now. Trent Green is getting time in the pocket. And Drew Bledsoe has returned to his usual inconsistent self after a great start to the season. Both teams need this game badly. But I think the Chiefs have a much better offense, and that'll be the difference. Chiefs 24, Cowboys 17.

Keep this up St. Ides and no one is going to visit the Hall of Fame in 20 years. Does anyone really want to see the Marco Riviera wing? Chiefs 27 Cowboys 20

CHARGERS -13.5 over Dolphins
The Dolphins are actually having a decent season. But they're playing much better at home than on the road. Meanwhile, the Chargers are actually back in the hunt for the AFC West title with the Chiefs beating Denver last week. Tomlinson has some bruised ribs, but last I checked, his legs were just fine. Chargers 33, Dolphins 16.

I'll take the points. The Fins are slowly improving... Chargers 27 Fins 24

Lions +6.5 over PACKERS
Jeff Garcia will start for the Lions. I'm not sure which team is in worse shape right now. I'd say the Lions. Did you see the highlight last week of the dude with the sign in the stands? Apparently signs are banned from the stands in Detroit, which is something I'd never heard of before. I'm guessing it's because the team has been so awful for so long, it'd just be 90% negative signs anyways. Well, last week, some dude was running around the stands holding up a makeshift sign that said "Fire Millen" (Lions GM Matt Millen). As he made his way through the stands, it wasn't because he was spreading his message, but because he was being chased by security. Finally, some big African-American security guard sneaks out of a tunnel behind him, and blindsides him, tackling him and throwing him to the ground. Not good times. Packers 24, Lions 19.

Things are bad for the Pack, but things are worse for Detroit. The Lions do not ave a QB that can throw outdoors in the winter. Packers 31 Lions 13

FALCONS -10.5 over Saints
Somehow the Saints hung around against the Bucs last week. They were actually driving with a chance to tie late in the game. Until Aaron Brooks worked his usual magic and threw a game-ending interception in the end zone. So here's a tip I'm confident in sharing with you all: never bet on Aaron Brooks on the road. Ever. Falcons 26, Saints 10.

St. Francis Prep could beat the Saints, and that's coming from an Archbishop Molloy alumni. Falcons 34 Saints 10