Week 15 Picks

(Somewhere along the way, we got our actual week number wrong. I'm too lazy to track it down, but don't let the "Week 13" title below fool you.. that was Week 14.. And this is Week 15.. On with the show...)

We're getting towards the end! Saturday games this week (and a couple good ones), and a lot of playoff spots still up for grabs. Actually, the Colts and Seahawks are the only two to have even clinched playoff berths yet, though several teams are close and should lock up at least an appearance this weekend.

Just a quick comment on the excellent Samichlaus piece about things that piss me off…. Yes, most announcers suck. During the Seattle game this past weekend, the announcers were talking about how well rookie MLB Lofa Tatupu has played for the Seahawks this year. Then the announcer said something like "It just goes to show you can find good talent out there, Tatupu came in here as an undrafted rookie and is now starting!" A commercial soon followed. As we returned from commercial, and the announcer corrected himself: "Sorry, Tatupu wasn't a rookie free agent. He was drafted in the by Seattle this year out of BC (Boston College)."
For the record, Tatupu was drafted in the second round this year out of (two-time defending national champ) USC. I guess someone in the booth or on his headphones or wherever told him about his mistake before the commercial, but to correct him with incorrect information? Un-frickin-believable.

My favorite color guy right now is Bill Maas. That’s right, Bill Maas. Maas calls games on Fox with play by play man Sam Rosen and by my best guess this is the third or fourth string Fox team. Maas is correctly criticized by media types for his absolute butchering of the English language, but he brings a level of analysis that few broadcasters come close to. He, much like a young John Madden, has the ability to break down complex plays and explain them in simple terms. He’s very technical but easy to understand. The problem with most color commentators is that they add absolutely nothing to the broadcast. When was the last time Phil Simms or Troy Aikman said something during a broadcast that really meant something? What about Dan Dierdoff? The extent of their color commentary is usually a statement of the obvious, like “Wow, did you see that catch? Driver fully extended his body and caught the ball!”. I’m sorry, but that’s not color. This weekend find the game that Rosen and Maas are calling, and try to put aside the mispronunciations. I’ll bet you learn something from Bill Maas.

Yeah, I'm a big fan of Sam Rosen (or as we call him around here, Sam Nosen.. ) He's been calling Rangers games for years, and him and John Davidson are probably the best pair of hockey announcers out there. I'll save my story about when I met John Davidson for another time...

Anyways, on to the picks:
St. Ides
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 99-108

Samichlaus:
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 108-99

PATRIOTS -4.5 over Bucanneers
Chris Simms on the road in the cold against a Patriots team that's getting healthy? No thanks. Although Brady is listed as questionable for this game, so don't bet the house until you're sure he's playing. Let me toot my own horn for a second, here's what I wrote last week for the Bucs Panthers game: "The NFC South battle will be a good one down the stretch, with the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons all playing each other. First I was thinking "There's no way Chris Simms beats the Panthers defense." But the more I think about it, the more I like how the Bucs defense is playing. Ronde Barber is playing like a man possessed, and I think he can bait Delhomme into a pick or two. This ought to be a pretty close defensive game. Which is why I'm taking the points. Panthers 20, Bucs 16." Ronde Barber DID in fact have a key interception, and the Bucs won 20-10. Brady is a few notches smarter than Delhomme. Patriots 26, Bucs 13.

Brady’s dinged up, and the Bucs are hot. Chris Simms has gotten better as the year has gone on. I am tempted to take the Bucs outright, but there’s that whole “below 32 degrees” thing. I’m going to take the Bucs and the points: Patriots 23 – Bucs 21

Chiefs +3.5 over GIANTS
Eli is starting to throw up questionable balls in key situations. Really, the Giants should have lost last week to the decimated Eagles (who, I might remind you, Seattle absolutely destroyed 42-0 the week before) because of Manning's picks. Their defense bailed them out, and Feely actually made the game winning field goal this time. Oh, and they also had a few key injuries. Look for Larry Johnson to have a nice day running, and Tony Gonzalez to show Jeremy Shockey how a TRUE clutch TE plays. Chiefs 29, Giants 24.

Larry Johnson is probably the most exciting player in the game right now, but I think the Giants D will contain him. The Chiefs are a good team but they are not a good road team. The Giants need this win in a tight divisional race. Giants 24 Chiefs 17

BILLS +9.5 over Broncos
The Broncos barely beat an awful Ravens team last week. Kyle Boller (who probably won't have a starting job next season) handed them the game. Although I don't have much faith in Losman for Buffalo, I do think the Bills play much better at home and ought to keep the score within 10. Broncos 23, Bills 16.

I agree. The Bills are a different team at home, and regular readers of SBS know this is an easy bet. Broncos 17 Bills 14

Cardinals -1.5 over TEXANS
I actually flipped on the Texans game last week in time to see their attempt at the game winning field goal. Before the ball was snapped, I thought to myself, "You know, they have more to lose if he actually makes this." Sure enough, he shanked the kick (and I believe it was only like a 38-yarder or so) so badly it wasn't even close. Now, I agree with the points previously made that a team should not lose games to move up the draft, because you never REALLY know who will pan out as a pro. But here's the thing: I believe that if the Texans get the #1 pick, they'll trade it for a boatload of picks. And one of those picks they get has to work out, right? Errr, nevermind. Cardinals 29, Texans 20.

Why oh why couldn’t the Sunday night crew get stuck with this one? I wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemy. BTW, if Rosen and Haas are calling this one, I rescind my earlier suggestion. I’ll take the Cardinals: Cardinals 27 Texans 20.

SAINTS +8.5 over Panthers
Panthers choked against the Bucs last week, and Steve Smith got lit up with a huge hit. I generally like the Panthers and think they're a well-coached, disciplined, competitive team. But something's just not right this year. Their defense isn't as dominant as it usually is, and they've lost to some crappy teams. Plus, there is a chance Aaron Brooks gets benched. And that improves the Saints chances I think. Panthers win, but don't cover. Panthers 23, Saints 17.

The Panthers may be one of those teams that play to their opponents level. I’m guessing that John Fox will have them ready this week no matter who they’re playing. The Cats will stroll and rock and roll: Panther 34 Saints 13

REDSKINS -2.5 over Cowboys
Redskins are barely clinging to their playoff chances. Mark Brunell has cooled off considerably after a nice start to the season. But I keep getting the feeling the Cowboys really are NOT that good. They needed Drew Bledsoe to have a career game and a missed tying field goal as time expired to beat the Chiefs in Dallas last week. The Dallas running game still hasn't really gotten going all year, and having a one-dimensional offense against a defense as good as Washington is not a good thing. Redskins 23, Cowboys 16.

The entire Redskin secondary is banged up, and although they’re going to play they will be a step behind. The last time they played, Dallas dominated the game for 3 ½ quarters, only to allow the Redskins to steal the game with 2 sick passes to Santana Moss. This time the Skins won’t be so lucky: Dallas 27 Washington 20

DOLPHINS -9.5 over Jets
Dolphins with the huge upset last week over the Chargers. Jets actually beat the Raiders. Does anybody care about this game? No, not really. Dolphins defense shuts down the Jets. Dolphins 23, Jets 10.

The Jets always play the fish tough, just ask my father in law. He dreads these games the way most of us dread prostate exams. Jets 24 Dolphins 20

Steelers -3.5 over VIKINGS
I found this spread a bit weird considering the Vikings have been on a huge roll lately, and the Steelers were struggling before last week's win over the Bears. I guess that win was convincing enough for the bookies. And you know what, the Vikings have rolled off their winning streak against pretty bad teams. The Steelers ought to put them back in their place. Steelers 31, Vikings 20.

With indictments handed down against 4 players, the Vikings are ready to come apart at the seams. I agree with St. Ides, this spread is bullspit. Steelers 31 Vikings 13

Chargers +8.5 over COLTS
I hope the Colts win. I want to see them come into Seattle next week undefeated. The Chargers are desperate for a win to keep their playoff hops alive, but if they couldn't beat the frickin Dolphins at home last week, do they have a chance? The damn Colts allowed a late Jaguars TD AND 2-point conversion and failed to cover by a half point last week. I said I'd keep taking the Colts til they failed to cover. Well, they failed to cover. Colts 34, Chargers 27.

The rule of the more desperate team may not apply when the Colts are involved, they are that good. However I expect the Chargers to play inspired football this week, then lose. Colts 37 Chargers 31.

Seahawks -7.5 over TITANS
Seattle has won the last two games by a combined 83-3. I wonder what the record is for 3 games of consecutive thrashings. How does 117-13 sound? PS - The defense has also moved up from 20th to 11th in the past two games. #2 offense, #11 defense. That almost sounds like a championship caliber combination. Almost. Oh and #1 WR Darrell Jackson is back this week for the first time since Week 2. Seahawks 34, Titans 10.

I like Seattle too. When a team is this hot you have to play ‘em. I don’t see any reason why Seattle would cool down even if the Titans are at home.
Seattle 37 Tennessee 17

Niners +16.5 over JAGUARS
Too many points. Jaguars 30, 49ers 14.

Yeah. Jaguars 28 Niners 17

Bengals -8.5 over LIONS
The Bengals game against the Browns was way too close for comfort. Meanwhile, the Lions are a sinking ship and can't even catch a break. And yes, that tackle of Gado in the end zone should have been a safety. (Sorry dude.) Bengals 36, Lions 17.

Yes it should have. But since the refs already called intentional grounding resulting in a safety, they had already determined that it was a forward pass. Kudos to Mike Sherman for pointing out that the QB Gado was outside the box. Brilliant. The Lions are a terribly coached team. Bengals 34 Lions 10

Browns +3.5 over RAIDERS
Charlie Frye looked pretty good last week in staying competitive against the Bengals. The Raiders new QB, that Tatiupsopososo guy…. Did not look so good against the Jets. They'll probably put Kerry Whiskey Collins back in. It won't matter much. Browns 24, Raiders 16.

Sit, I’m running out of time…. I’ll take the Raiders at home just to be different Raiders 24 Browns 17

Eagles +3.5 over RAMS
John Madden, about 20 frickin times during the Seahawks thrashing of the Eagles two weeks ago: "Well, we really don't know if the Seahawks are this good or if the Eagles are this bad." Well, they almost beat the playoff-bound Giants, so they can't be THAT bad, can they? They still have some pride. And the Rams Harvard QB is quickly losing his novelty act appeal. Eagles 30, Rams 22.

The Rams are the more desperate team. The Rams are at home. Last week the Eagles played their best, and still came up short. Stick a fork in them: Rams 24 Eagles 17

BEARS -3.5 over Falcons
If Seattle wins and the Bears lose, Seattle locks up home field advantage in the NFC. Which means they have nothing to play for next week against the Colts. I'm REALLY hoping to see a still-undefeated Colts team play a Seahawks team who still have something to play for. So I'm hoping the Bears win. I think Ron Mexico will blow this one. Bears 19, Falcons 14.

I like the Bears fast D and the elements at Soldier Field to overcome Michael Vick and his sick dick. Bears 23 Vicks Herpes Infested Penis 15

Packers +3.5 over RAVENS
The Packers have 3 Monday Night games and at least 1 Sunday Night game this season. Including 3 prime time games in the past 5 weeks. I'm guessing the league thought they'd be a bit better. Get ready for 3 hours of Madden kissing Favre's heiney. The over/under on how many times Madden mentions this could be Favre's last season and/or Monday Night Game: 19 and a half. Packers 24, Ravens 19.

The Packers played a mediocre game against a lousy team and finally won one. The Ravens are pretty good, but I’m thinking my boys are going to steal another win. In Gado we trust: Packers 24 Ravens 10