Week 17 - The End of the Regular Season

The final week of the regular season! But fear not, loyal readers. We'll continue to make bold predictions and insightful analysis throughout the playoffs.

I'll start this week with an interesting article comparing Favre and Hasselbeck, and how their seasons have gone this year. This fact really jumped out as pretty damn impressive, and a nice indication of just how good a season Hasselbeck has had: "Hasselbeck, in his last three games, has thrown only five more incomplete passes (14) than touchdowns (nine)."

For you non-math people out there, that means he's averaging only 4.67 incompletions and 3 TDs in each of the past 3 games. Oh, and zero INTs. So less than 2 more passes clank onto the ground per game than find a receiver in the end zone. (And it's not like those low incompletions come from not throwing much, averaging almost 25 attempts each of those games.) So about 20/25, 3 TD, 0 INT. That's pretty frickin hot going into the playoffs.

Can we tell who's team has the best record in football and who's team is fighting for the worst? The normally laconic St. Ides is a loquatious plethora of commentary, while I am a depressed, terse pancake.

Please don't retire Brett.

On to the picks… It's a tough week, considering that there are so many teams with nothing to play for.. Some teams are locked into their playoff seeding and resting people, some teams are done and might consider taking a look at young players. (ie, do the Chargers give Phillip Rivers a chance? Do the Packers put Rodgers out there?) There are 9 teams with something to play for: Giants, Panthers, Chiefs, Bengals, Steelers, Patriots, Bucs, Redskins, and Cowboys. And of those 9 teams, only the Chiefs and Bengals are playing each other.

Samichlaus
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 123-116

St. Ides
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 116-123

Broncos +9.5 over CHARGERS
And we begin with a weird one… Chargers are done. They cannot make the playoffs. There are even rumors they might let Phillip Rivers start this weekend to see how he does (since Brees didn't have a great season). Broncos are locked into the #2 seed, and their starters probably won't see much action. But after a disappointing season for the Chargers, do they really care enough to blow out a JV team? I'll take those points. Chargers 27, Broncos 23.

I'm going to agree. I'm not sure how good the Denver J.V. team is but I suspect they're good enough to keep this one close. Bolts 27 Broncos 24

Giants -8.5 over RAIDERS
Kerry "Whiskey" Collins looks for revenge on his old team, who jettisoned him when they drafted Eli Manning and brought in Kurt Warner as Eli's "mentor". He probably has something to prove. Sadly, the rest of his team sucks, Randy Moss isn't 100% healthy, and the Giants need this game to wrap up the NFC East. If the Giants don't win this game, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Giants 27, Raiders 17.

The Giants have something to play for, while the Raiders do not. However the Giants have not really played very well of late. That's a lot of points to be giving. I'll take the Raiders: Giants 27 Raiders 20

COLTS -7.5 over Cardinals
You know what, that Sorgi guy who backs up Manning didn't look half bad against Seattle last week. And Dominic Rhodes isn't too shabby a RB. And even the Colts' 4th string WRs can catch the ball. Can the Colts JV team beat the Cardinals? I think so. More importantly, Dungy is back with the team, and I think he'll do his best to get the win. After starting 13-0, do the Colts want to enter the playoffs on the 3-game losing streak? I sure wouldn't. Colts 27, Cardinals 18.

Excellent analysis. There's nothing I can add except the obvious: Arizona sucks. Colts 34 Cardinals 17

RAVENS -3.5 over Browns
What the hell?!? Kyle Boller had ANOTHER good game? Could it be this guy is coming around? Maybe, but I don't really care enough to think about it more than these few sentences. Ravens 23, Browns 17.

I think the light went on in Boller's head against the Packers. He's letting his receivers make the plays and he's not forcing the ball. Favre could learn something from this kid: Ravens 24 Browns 17

Bills -1.5 over JETS
Bills showed something by going into Cinci and beating the Bengals last week. The Jets should be a cakewalk. Bills 20, Jets 7.

The Bills stunned last week... well at least I was stunned. Look for the Jets to blow this one in hopes of landing Mr. Bush. Bills 24 Jets 10

FALCONS +4.5 over Panthers
The Panthers win, and they're in the playoffs. The Falcons are looking to play spoiler. I think Mr. Mexico comes up short, but I'll take the points at home. Panthers 24, Falcons 23.

The rule of the more desperate team applies. Look for "The Blister" to sit out the second half. Cats 31 Birds 20

Vikings +3.5 over BEARS
Bears are locked in as the 2 seed, and although Rex Grossman has looked pretty good since he's been put back in at QB, they'd be nuts to play him much with his fragile history. Vikings don't have anything to play for either, but I don't expect the Bears second stringers to put up that much of a fight. Bears 20, Vikings 17.

I think the Bears JV totally shuts down the Vikes JV. The Bears will look to send the Soldier Field crowd home happy. Bears 24 Vikqueens 7

CHIEFS -0.5 over Bengals (-7.5)
The first of four games where the spread wasn't out early enough in the week, so in my pool, the dude running it simply set the home team as a half point favorite. Basically a "pick em" game. The actual up to date spread is in parenthesees. In fairness to ourselves as the analysts (and to pad our record a bit as a Holiday gift), and to maintain consistency (since this has happened in the past), we'll go with the easy spread for our purposes. Anyways, Chiefs need a win and a Steelers loss (ain't gonna happen) to make the playoffs. Bengals need a win to hang onto the #3 seed. Here's the catch though… If the Bengals win, they host the Steelers next week. If they lose, they host the Jaguars. Now, who do you think they'd rather play? Yeah, I thought so too. Chiefs 30, Bengals 20.

The Chiefs, at home, are the more desperate team. As much as I like Carson Palmer (who Boomer Esiason has called the best young quarterback in the game) I'm going to take the Chiefs: Chiefs 31 Bengals 27

STEELERS -0.5 over LIONS (-13.5)
With only a half point, this may be the easiest pick of the year. The 13.5 makes this more interesting. But I don't trust the Lions much, and the Steelers need this to make the playoffs. It's also very likely the final home game for Jerome Bettis. The Bus rolls. Steelers 27, Lions 13.

Keep those Christmas gifts coming! Steelers 2,834 - Lions 6

Ok.... maybe that's a bit of an exageration.... Steelers 721 - Lions 3

PATRIOTS -0.5 over Dolphins (-5.5)
Like I said above, a Patriots win and a Bengals loss gives them the #3 seed and Pittsburgh. A loss or Bengals win gives them the #4 seed and Jacksonville. I don't think the Patriots are afraid of either team though, and they win to sneak into the 3 seed. Patriots 23, Dolphins 17.

Two hot teams, but the champs are coming on strong. Christmas gift or not, I like the Pats by 10 or more: Patriots 24 Dolphins 13

Saints +14.5 over Bucs
Bucs win and the clinch the NFC South. They should win fairly easily, but look for a garbage time score to allow the Saints to cover. Bucs 26, Saints 17.

Where is this game being played? Ahh, who cares. The Bucs are the more desperate team and the better team too. Bucs 31 Saints 10

NINERS +1.5 over Texans
The Reggie Bush Bowl! Texans win, they get the #1 pick… Niners win (and the Saints, Packers, and Jets all lose)… Saints (?!?) get the #1 pick due to strength of schedule tie breakers. Given and tension between Saints ownership and the league this season, looks for the Texans and referees to do everything in their power to make sure that doesn't happen. Niners 24, Texans 17.

I hope the Saints get the first pick. All of a sudden Green Bay won't look so bad to Mr. Bush. At least we've got a FUCKING CITY. Niners 24 Texans 21

Titans +3.5 over JAGUARS
Jaguars have nothing to play for. Titans usually play them fairly tough. Titans 27, Jaguars 20.

I'll take the Jags at home just to be different. Call this my mirror pick: Jags 27 Titans 20

Seahawks +3.5 over PACKERS
Favre's last game? I don't think so. He'll be playing against mostly second and third stringers, so if he has anything left in the tank, this is the game to show it. Meanwhile, the Seattle second string offense can be pretty good. Watch out for Mo Morris, Seneca Wallace, and Leonard "The Dumptruck" Weaver. Favre and the Packers should win, but the Seattle JV keeps it close. Packers 23, Seahawks 20.

I agree. The Seahawks will score a TD on their first possession, a Shawn Alexander run off left tackle. He'll get his TD record, and sit the rest of the way. Watch for Rod Gardner to have a breakout game for the Packers... and watch Favre's face as he comes off the field. If he's crying, he's retiring.

Redskins +0.5 over EAGLES (-7.5)
Another freebie. Easy spread. Redskins win and they're in. In fact, if the Giants lose, the Skins can still win the division. I doubt that'll happen, but they should beat the hapless Eagles. Redskins 23, Eagles 10.

I'll take the Christmas points. The Skins are the hottest team in the east. Skins 34 Eagles 20

Rams +12.5 over COWBOYS
Here's the thing… Cowboys need to win, and one of the following three teams to lose: Redskins, Panthers, or Buccaneers (and some help with that last one). By the time this game starts at 8:30 on New Year's Day night, they'll very likely be eliminated already. In which case, they'll play a flat, meaningless game with Parcells pouting on the sidelines. I think that'll happen, and the Harvard QB keeps it close. Cowboys 20, Rams 13

Or... the 'Boys start the game with a chance to make the playoffs. It's a long shot, I know... Cowboys 34 Rams 17