Conference Picks (Half of them at least) UPDATED!!!

By popular demand, here are the picks for the Conference Championships. (Expect Samichlaus' picks soon.)

OK kids, Samichlaus here on a Saturday morning, working furiously to get my picks in. Thank you Mr. St. Ides for keeping this blog going while work, interviewing, and an out of commission wife keep me busy busy busy. I have added my picks below....

Soooo, we're down to the Final Four! And guess what, the Colts and Patriots are nowhere to be found! (Which has to give the NFC representative a better shot at winning it all, right?) Anyways, on to the picks...

Samichlaus
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3

St. Ides
Last Week: 0-4
Playoffs: 4-4

BRONCOS -3.5 over Steelers
Yes, the Steelers have looked impressive. Yes, they disrupted Peyton Manning and the Colts offense last week. But, come on, this is a Manning we're talking about. "Playoff Choke" is Peyton's middle name. Peyton Playoff Choke Manning. Sounds about right. In any case, Jake Plummer is no Peyton Manning. Uhhhhmm, what the fuck did I just say? Here's the thing though - as good as Peyton may be, and the huge numbers he puts up, have you ever seen a quarterback who's sacked so easily? I mean, once the pressure gets to him, all they have to do is basically blow on him and he goes down. If he's not rolling out on a designed play action, he has like zero mobility to get out of the pocket and away from pressure. The Chargers pressured him and beat the Colts to kill their unbeaten season, and the Steelers repeated the forumla to send them golfing. As much as everybody (including myself) has been anxiously awaiting a Jake Plummer meltdown, it hasn't happened. And the main reason it hasn't happened is because he hasn't really had to force things late and win the games for them. The running game and defense usually stakes them to a decent lead, and Plummer does just enough not to mess it up. Which is a big improvement for him, no doubt. The Steelers are the popular pick this week, which is why I think they suffer a letdown. Keep in mind before this season, Cowher hadn't won a playoff game in a row. He tries to make it three this weekend in Denver, where the Broncos are unbeaten this year. I just don't think they'll play like they did last week. Broncos 26, Steelers 20.

The Steelers have been put in the unenviable position of having to win three road games in a row to make it to the Super Bowl. Their run has certainly been impressive but the run comes to an end this week. I can not think of a better home team than Denver. Maybe it’s an acclimation to the thin air (could this be the real reason John Elway became famous for fourth quarter comebacks?) or maybe it’s the crowds. I can’t explain it. Denver’s success against the Patriots came because they were able to stop the run and get pressure on Tom Brady. The Steelers are primarily a running team, and their best chance of winning is to come out fast and furious. However, I don’t see it happening. Here’s how it will play out: this will be a close game at half time. The Steelers might even have a slight lead. But in the second half, Denver will open it up. The Steelers will wear down in the thin Colorado air. That fat slob Jerome Bettis won’t be able to breath effectively killing any chance Pittsburgh might have had. Denver wins it 27 - 20

Panthers +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
The "reverse jinx" has worked well with me and Seattle all season. I pick against them (with the spread at least.. I often pick them to win the game outright, but not cover, like last weekend), and they win. So the question is do I continue with the pattern that has worked, and be all superstitious about it? Or do I go with what I really feel, that they will shut down Steve Smith and win this game and cover? Well, who am I to screw with the karma of the cosmos? Reverse jinx it is! But here's what I really think - I think Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme have single-handedly gotten the Panthers this far. Throw in some inexcusable defensive plans by Chicago and Tampa Bay to leave him in single (or no) man coverage, and there must have been a dozen articles on Steve Smith this week. Does anybody really think they are going to let this guy beat them? I mean, really? If you're the Seattle coaching staff, do you or do you not say, "Okay, win or lose, we need to shut down this Smith guy. I don't care if we have to put our whole frickin secondary on him, we can't let him beat us. Let's see what Nick Goings and Ricky Proehl can do against us if we give them some room. But do NOT let Steve Smith get open." The Bears defense got cocky last week, and they paid for it. The Seahawks defense is still not getting the respect it deserves. They absolutely throttled the Skins last weekend, and if it weren't for turnovers and that freaky TD catch by Moss that deflected off the defender, they could have easily been shut out. "Oh, but the Redskins offense sucks" the critics say. Whatever. This Seattle defense is pretty good, and they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder now. They can and will get to Delhomme with a 4 man rush. They are excellent against the run, with Tiki still being the only back to rush for over 100 yards all season, and it took OT for him to break 100. You think Nick Goings is going to run wild on them? Yes, maybe he's better than your typical 3rd stringer, but please. Anyways, Alexander is healthy enough to play after last week's concussion, and he has to have some extra motivation too. This is still his contract year. Getting the rushing title and TD record will help his value, but disappearing in the playoffs will hurt it. Badly. He's done nothing in his playoff career. The Seahawks proved last week they can win without him (which also lowers his value a bit). Hasselbeck absolutely tore up the Redskins secondary. Supposedly the Panthers corners are better, including former Seahawk Ken Lucas. I liked Lucas. He was a pretty solid corner for us, until his contract year. Then he turned it up a notch, put up stealler numbers, and bolted for a huge contract this past offseason. Seattle didn't want to pay him as much, and replaced him with two corners instead - Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon - who have performed fine, though they've each had some injury issues over the course of the season. But Lucas is not invulnerable. He's definitely beatable deep (and Darrell Jackson and Hasselbeck seemed to find their deep ball groove last weekend), and commits way to many interference calls. I'm sure the Seahawks know this. They will go after him, and you can bet he'll get flagged at least once. Bank it. Anyways, as tough as the Panthers look and as many criticisms the media can find with Seattle, I think this could be our year. But I'm going to say we don't cover. You know, just in case there's something to this reverse jinx thing. Seahawks 27, Panthers 24.

You’re making this easy for me you superstitious beer drinking fool.

Some times a team / player plays a game that exorcizes the demons of their past. Seattle and Matt Hasslebeck had a game like that last week. Indeed, to win without the services of the NFL MVP was proof enough, but to watch Hasslebeck take the team on his shoulders during the second half of the game was truly a site to see. This was a coming of age story for Hasslebeck, a game where he established himself amongst the elite players in the game. Now, St. Ides might disagree with me. He might argue that Hasslebeck has been doing it all season, or at least during the second half of the season. Come to think of it, St. Ides did make that point in an earlier post. My point is last week Hasslebeck got to do it on a national stage for every one to see. You don’t go back after a game like that. On the other side of the ball, I want you to watch Jake Delhomme. Count the times during the course of the game that Delhomme looks off a defender, or does a check down. I’ll be surprised if the number is greater than five. The reason Steve Smith puts up such great numbers is that Delhomme has absolutely no ability to do second and third reads. Seattle knows this, and will be prepared. Seattle 34 Carolina 10.

Also, I'm doing the Madden XBox thing again. (These predictions went 2-2 last week, better than I did...) Here's what happened:

Steelers 28, Broncos 21
Yep, they had the old Jake Plummer in there all right. 2 horrible interceptions. Meanwhile, Jerome Bettis led the Steelers attack with 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. Not sure the Bus has quite that much mileage left in the tank, and Tatum Bell matched his 100+ effort for the Broncos. This sort of high scoring game with Plummer blowing it could be exactly on the mark.

Seahawks 20, Panthers 3
A 61-yard TD pass from Hasselbeck to Jackson early in this one set the tone. And on the ensuing Panthers possession, safety Michael Boulware picked off a Jake Delhomme pass intended for Steve Smith and took it back for the score. 14 points in about 10 seconds pretty much had the Panthers playing from behind the whole game, and they could not get anything sustained on offense. Grant Wistrom played a monster game with 3 sacks, including a key one late on 4th down inside the Seattle 10.