Week 5+4+2

Dude, I don't even know what week it is! Anyway, I'm all done. The doc attacched says week 10. I think that's right...

Math lesson! So all the byes are over with now for the year (yay!) Take your team’s record, add the wins and losses together, add 2 (1 for their bye week, and 1 because it’s the “current” week and the game hasn’t been played yet), and you have the week. So take the Packers: 5 wins, 4 losses. 5+4=9. 9+2=11. Week 11 baby! On to the picks:

Miami (4-5) at Carolina (4-5) -3.5
Ronnie Brown going down for the season is a huge blow to the Dolphins. The one man offense tore one of those pesky cruciate ligaments and no, I don’t know which one. All I know is Brown is out, and the Dolphins look to Ricky Williams and Rookie QB Pat White to fill in the role. The Panthers impressed me against the Falcons last week, and are on a bit of a roll winning 3 of their last 5, but I’m not overly confident picking them against a 3-4 defense such as the Dolphins. In the end it comes down to this: the Fins lost their best player this week, and take away their one playmaker and that becomes a difference maker. Carolina 27 Miami 17

Actually, I think he broke his foot. Linscsomethingorother fracture was what I read. But yeah, him going down hurts him. Does that mean Pat White gets on the field more? Probably. And can Ricky Williams find the Fountain of Youth? Probably not. (And even if he did, that might also lead him back to his days of smoking weed and not caring much about football. So either way, they’re screwed.) I actually watched the end of the Bucs-Fins game last week and saw that AWFUL pick Henne threw to give up the presumptive winning score. But then I watched him bounce back nicely and carve up the good ol’ prevent defense and lead the team to victory. I’m quite torn on this game, but I’m going to say it’s been too many weeks without a Jake Delhomme collapse and he’s due. Dolphins 23, Panthers 17.

Indianapolis (9-0) at Baltimore (5-4) -0.5
The Colts just keep finding ways to win, whether by the talent of their quarterback, the idiocy of their opposing coach, the typical favorite treatment by the officials, or a symbiotic convergence of all three as was the case last week against the Patriots. I keep thinking “this is the week they lose” and I keep thinking wrong. So as long as they keep winning, I’m not going to try to outsmart them. As much as I love Baltimore at home, I’m getting right back on that Colts bandwagon. Colts 34 Ravens 27

Not sure how this spread was so low when I grabbed these from my pool on Wednesday, but there it is. The spread is up to 7 now. So this seems like pretty much a gimme. Although that means that everyone and their mother’s in this pool is going to take Indy. Which is tempting me to go the other way. But I just can’t after seeing that win over the Pats last weekend. Poor Anonymous. I might feel bad for him if Seattle actually had any Super Bowl titles. Joe Flacco, meet Dwight Freeney. Colts 36, Ravens 23.

Buffalo (3-6) at Jacksonville (5-4) -8.5
Honestly, I thought Wade Phillips would be gone by week 10, but the great Dick Jauron? Easy kids, that’s sarcasm. Years ago I saw an NFL Films special called “Holmgren’s Heros” where Mike Holmgren was on a panel with all the head coaches he spawned. There was Steve Mariucci, Jon Gruden, Mike Sherman, and Dick Jauron. Holmgren loved Jauron. At one point he said something like “you were the only one that I thought would be a great head coach”. I guess there’s a reason why Holmgren didn’t do so well as the GM in Seattle. He’s not a real good judge of personnel. In other words it’s easy to win a Super Bowl with Brett Favre and Reggie White on your side. Buffalo is falling apart and Jacksonville is hanging around. I like Jacksonville to win with ease and cover by 10. Jacksonville 31 Buffalo 21

Did you guys see Maurice Jones-Drew take that knee on the Jets 1-yard line so they could burn off the final minute of time and kick the winning field goal? Brilliant stuff. The NFL is so weird. How the hell did this team get blown out (and shutout) by Seattle just a few weeks ago? I’ll never figure this stuff out… And yes, Dick Jauron is a pretty awful coach. There’s a lot of awful coaches these days it seems. It’ll be interesting to see where (if anywhere) Holmgren, Shanahan, Cowher, Gruden, Dungy, and Lombardi show up next year. And since you brought up Holmgren… He gets a bit of a bum rap for his GM job in Seattle. Yes, he made some mistakes, but mostly on the defensive side of the ball during the draft. You also have to give him credit for trading a bag of used balls for Matt Hasselbeck. Some other highlights: trading Joey Galloway to Dallas for two first round picks (which turned into Shaun Alexander and Koren Robinson). Drafting Steve Hutchinson (and he never would have gotten away if Holmgren was still GM). Signing key free agents Bobby Engram, Trent Dilfer (who played fairly well before Hasselbeck was ready to be the starter), and keeping Walter Jones around by franchinsing him (and relatively happy, as franchise tagged players go). Anyways, his replacement, Tim Ruskell, has fallen out of favor recently with the team’s struggles the past two years. He’s in his last year of contract. So, maybe just maybe, there could be a return of Holmgren to Seattle in strictly a GM role. And I’d be fine with that. Wait, Seattle isn’t even playing in this game we’re talking about? Oops. Jaguars 27, Bills 16.

Cleveland (1-8) at Detroit (1-8) -3.5
Ooooh. Alright, for anyone who gives a rat’s ass I won’t mail this in. Ever notice how Detroit hangs around with every team for about 2 quarters, then just falls apart in the second half of a game? I think they put together a solid 60 minute game once and for all and beat the Browns in Detroit. Home field is good for 3 points, so the way I see it is Detroit has to be a half a point better than the Browns, and I think they are. Detroit 20 Cleveland 15

Yeah, the Lions are better than their record (though not by much). And the Browns are worse than their record. The Lions have hung around in several games, so I agree with the reasoning above. Lions 24, Browns 16.

New Orleans (9-0) at Tampa Bay (1-8) +11.5
Tampa Bay beat the Packers and covered against the heavily favored Dolphins. And now with a week gone since the Packers debacle Ol’ Samichlaus can honestly say that he sees good things in rookie QB Josh Freeman. The guy is a friggin load. Now I don’t think Tampa can beat the Saints, but I think they can keep it close. I’m going out on a bit of a limb here, but let’s go with Tampa and the points Saints 37 Bucs 27

After successfully covering huge spreads for their first six games this season, the Saints have failed to cover for the last three, beginning with that Monday night debacle. Make it four this week. I don’t know if they’re holding back a bit maybe as to save some surprises for the playoffs or if teams are starting to see something, but they’re no longer winning by 3+ TDs every week. Make it four in a row. Saints 37, Bus 28.

San Francisco (4-5) at Green Bay (5-4) -6.5
Wow, that’s a lot of points against a tough 49rs team. There are several keys to a Packers win. First, they must maintain whatever momentum they’ve accumulated with the win over Dallas. Second, they must contain Frank Gore. Third, they must play a crisp west coast offense and control the ball, and that means fourth they must protect the quarterback. The win over the Cowboys was huge and was exactly what they needed to turn the season around. Now they have to execute. The danger is how will they handle the pressure that the Niners will bring. Maybe Singletary’s “stuff” is running thin, but the Niners still play hard every down. I’m going with the Pack: I think they put it together one more time and do it with D. Packers 20 Niners 7

Did I say this league is tough to figure out? The Packers are the perfect example. What the fuck is up with this team? I mean, I went along with my partner’s pick last week just in case Nick Barnett happened to stumble across the blog and got mixed signals. (I mean, if he’s THAT concerned with what his fans think, don’t you believe he Googles his name once in awhile? And just for the hell of it, I Google’d “@NickBarnett”.. We came up on page 13…. He might get that far who knows, but I digress…) Anyways, realistically I thought the Packers were going to get smoked by Dallas, and that maybe my “they’re overrated” philosophy about the Cowboys would have to be buried for a little while. Well, thankfully, I can keep beating that idea into the ground. The Packers seem to have decent talent on both sides of the ball (though their offensive line seems shaky at times), so why can’t they consistently play well? And yes, I think the Singletary’s act is probably getting old with his players. Don’t forget the Niners have no QB. I’ll take the Packers and hope they stay hot. Packers 23, Niners 16.

Seattle (3-6) at Minnesota (8-1) -11.5
Can Seattle please win this darn game? I’m not asking for much, I’m just sick of the Vikings winning close game after close game. That team annoys me. They have so much, now what’s the word I’m looking for, talent? For no other reason than pure rooting interests I’m taking Seattle and the points. 11.5 is too hefty for my tastes. Vikings 30 Seahawks 27

You know, it was 14-0 Seattle over Arizona last week, and I was dancing around my living room, getting my daughter to yell “Go Seahawks!” and thinking to myself “Yes, just don’t blow this, and this season is salvageable!” Well, they blew it. They were outscored 31-6 the rest of the game (including being unable to punch if into the end zone from inside the 15 twice, something you can’t do against an offense like Arizona). They somehow thought it’d be a good idea to only rush 3 and drop 8 all game against Warner… And it DID work for a little while. But come on, mix it up a little. Jesus H. Christ. There’s a slim chance the Vikes look past Seattle and blow this. But more likely is Adrian Peterson running for about 400 yards and this not even being close. Vikings 37, Seahawks 16.

Washington (3-6) at Dallas (6-3) -11.5
The Redskins won a game last week, so they’ve officially met their quota for November, and Dallas looked so woefully inept against the Packers that Packer fans have already starting building the Mike McCarthy statue on Oneida Ave. Well, not really. I think this game is going to be closer than it looks on paper. These are two division rivals going at it, one coming off a big win and the other coming off a big loss. Dallas will be fired up, but so will the Skins who keep it close enough to warrant taking the points. Dallas 27 Washington 20

Yes, the Redskins. Who couldn’t have possibly put up over 20 points against the Broncos, no way. Let’s chain together a few quick clichés and be done with this: Cowboys overrated. A lot of points for a divisional rivalry game. Redskins got a wake-up call win. Blah blah blah. Cowboys 24, Skins 23.

Atlanta (5-4) at NY Giants (5-4) -6.5
I am officially off the Falcons bandwagon. The stinker they put up against the Cats last week was the last straw. Sadly, I am also off the Giants bandwagon who have lost 4 in a row. Since they are coming off a bye, this constitutes a mitigating factor. Look for the Giants to rebound and for Atlanta’s woes to continue. Giants 23 Falcons 15

Yeah, me too. I couldn’t get off that bandwagon soon enough after seeing them look awful against Carolina last week. Matt Ryan is playing like the rookie he should have looked like last year. He’s only thrown for over 230 yards twice this year in 9 games. With weapons like Michael Turner, Anthony Gonzlez, and Roddy White, that’s unacceptable. Meanwhile, the Giants are quickly looking like a non-playoff team. This game could mean a lot at the end of the season when the Wild Card is being decided. Giants 24, Falcons 17.

Pittsburgh (6-3) at Kansas City (2-7) +10.5
Pittsburgh figured out something last week right around the same time Samichlaus figured it out: The Bengals are better than them. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well for Stealer nation and it will sit even worse for poor Kansas City. Giving KC 10.5 at home is a huge deal, but I like Pittsburgh. I think the Stealers bounce back after a tough loss to hand it to the Chiefs with ease. Pittsburgh 31 Kansas City 10

There’s a good clip of annoying Terry Bradshaw guaranteeing that the Bengals don’t beat the Stealers in Pittsburgh last week. Let me see if I can find it real quick… Please hold.. Man, too much Bradshaw on Youtube, no such luck, sorry guys. Anyways, the Chiefs are pretty horrible. A late TD might make this close. Oh screw it, I’ll take the home points. Stealers 27, Chiefs 20.

Arizona (6-3) at St. Louis (1-8) +9.5
The Cardinals continue to play solid consistent football, and this week should be no different. St. Louis has no answer for the Cardinals who should coast in a uneventful matchup. Cardinals 34 Rams 13

You know, the Rams stuck around last week against the Saints. Maybe that gave them a little confidence. I’m a little hesitant to call the Cardinals consistent during a 2-game win streak that includes the horrible Seahawks and Bears. I’ve been saying it’s only a matter of time before Kurt Warner breaks down for two years now, and he keeps proving me wrong. What if I just go with a “take every home team getting more than a TD” plan this week and just call it a day? Cardinals 37, Rams 33.

Cincinnati (7-2) at Oakland (2-7) +9.5
The Bengals are the shiznit right now! I just loooove that they’ve stuck it to Pittsburgh twice! Why the spread on this game isn’t higher is beyond me. Maybe it’s because Oakland has decided to sit uber-bust Jamarcus Russell for, wait, I actually have to google this, Bruce Gradkowski? I don’t get Russell. The guy was all world at LSU and showed some improvements as his first year progressed. But this year it is clear that he has regressed. He simply can’t make the throws. Gradkowski, from Toledo, is an unknown, but I am betting that the Bengals handle this game with aplomb. Bengals 35 Raiders 10

Okay, so it took me all of about 30 seconds to break the rule I just established. I am firmly entrenched on the Bengals bandwagon. Gradkowski actually started a handful of games for Tampa Bay a few years ago, I think it was after Chris Simms got hurt but before they brought in Jeff Garcia. Is he still unsigned? Maybe he got a job doing Broadway? Dammit, someone sign Jeff Garcia for fuck sake! This blog needs him! I’m taking Cinci and their chilli. Bengals 32, Raiders 16.

NY Jets (4-5) at New England (6-3) -10.5
Pity the Jets, who have to face the Patriots after the meltdown in Indy. 10.5 seems like a lot for these two teams, considering the Jets have already beaten them, but I’m leaning towards the Patriots. The reason being after last week’s showing, the Pats are going to look to dominate. I know their head coach (well, not really. In fact I’ve never met the bastard) and I know he won’t hold back this week, no way no how. Patriots 35 Jets 23

This could get ugly. The Patriots are going to be pissed off this week. Besides blowing the game to the Colts and losing to the Jets earlier this season, there’s no mercy this time around. Look for Brady and Moss to explode, and the game to get a little chippy towards the end. (And for the record, I think that call to go for it on 4th and 2 was a pretty bad choice. Would Manning have driven down the field and scored anyways? Maybe, but make him earn it with an extra 40-50 yards in crunch time. I feel they handed the Colts that game. And it could cost them come playoff time when the seedings roll around.) Patriots 47, Jets 20.

San Diego (6-3) at Denver (6-3) +3.5
Denver a dog at home should be an easy pick, but hold on. Denver is officially on life support. If they couldn’t right the ship against the Redskins last week then there ain’t no ship left to be righted. Add to that (a) Kyle Orton has not practiced and (b) the Bolts are surging and I see a Bolts victory in the making San Diego wins and covers: Chargers 31 Broncos 20

That analysis is perfectly logical and makes complete sense. Which is why I’m going in the opposite direction. Just when we think we’ve got things figured out, it all flips around upside down. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos win in a blow out. (Of course, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Samichualus being dead on either. That’s the NFL – you never know.) Broncos 31, Chargers 30.

Philadelphia (5-4) at Chicago (4-5) +2.5
The Bears have lost 4 of their last 5 and really laid an egg against the 49rs. Since beating the snot out of the Giants, the Eagles have lost 2 straight. Now there’s no shame in losing to the Cowboys and Bolts (as the Eagles have) but this is a must win for them. For the Bears, the season is over and they know it, Lovie Smith has officially lost them, and Jay Cutler is currently persona non grata thanks to his 5 interception debacle against the Niners. The Eagles get it right this week: Eagles 34 Bears 17

I’m not sure I’d say the Bears are done just yet. This is one of those games between middle-of-the-pack teams that really could shape what the Wild Card race looks like heading into the season’s home stretch. There are 7 teams in the NFC right now that are 5-4 or 4-5. And two of those 5-4 teams would qualify for the Wild Card if the season ended today. This could be one of those year’s where an 8-8 team makes the playoffs. It really isn’t over for anybody unless you’re Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Tampa, Oakland, St. Louis, or KC. Even Seattle and Washington are technically only 2 games out of a playoff spot at 3-6, and the Titans have looked good lately. I’m taking the home dog again. Bears 23, Eagles 20.

Tennessee (3-6) at Houston (5-4) -4.5
Houston comes off the bye and a tough loss to the Colts to face a Titans team that probably filled it’s highlight reel last week against the Bills. I guess by now our readers know how much I like teams coming off a bye so let’s be consistent. I’m taking Houston and the points. The Texans are a good team. They’ve won 3 of their last 4, they’re at home and they’re rested. The Titans have been up and down. Houston by at least a TD . Texans 27 Titans 20

Speaking of the Titans.. Holy crap, is Chris Johnson good? Forget about Peterson, this dude is the most explosive running back in the league right now. The dude has 16 rushes for over 20 yards. That basically means you can depend on him to bust a big one about twice a game. His average per carry is 6.4 yards. No wonder the Titans have looked good since putting Vince Young in. They’ve basically abandoned the passing game and let Johnson take over. Oh, and he’s 6 months younger than Peterson and has one fewer season of wear and tear on him. He’s the player I start a new franchise with, hands down. (Okay, maybe I’m a little biased because I have him on my fantasy team and he’s single-handedly won me several games this year. But still, he’s a beast.) The Texans are decent too. This should be a good game. Titans 31, Texans 29.