Week 9 - In Two Acts

So once again Ol’ Samichlaus finds himself the victim of the economic downturn. I was officially laid off on Monday after two years of dutiful service to my employer. But worry not dear reader: we’ve got great plans here at the SBS Complex, and we’re excited about the future! There’s some exciting things in the works and Samichlaus predicts a better job is just around the bend… Now let’s hope my economic prognostications are better than some of my recent football prognostications!

How bout them Yankees? About time spending all that money finally paid off I guess. I've been falling behind on tallying our wins losses, so I honestly I have no idea how I'm doing over here. I'm still in first place overall in my pick'em pool, despite that gutwrenching Saints loss on Monday night. Time to catch up on the win/loss totals:

Week 5:
Samichlaus: 5-9
St.Ides: 5-9

Week 6:
Samichlaus: 7-7
St.Ides: 7-7

Week 7:
Samichlaus: 8-5
St.Ides: 7-6

Week 8:
St.Ides: 7-6
Samichlaus: 6-7

Total:
Samichlaus: 62-54
St.Ides: 59-57

Kansas City (1-6) at Jacksonville (3-4) -6.5
So what does last week mean for the Jaguars? They gave the Titans their first win. Does it mean the Jaguars are really THAT bad, or the Titans may have gotten their mojo back from last year and are good again? I have no idea. The Chiefs are pretty bad, but might have some life in them with a new RB taking over for the aging Larry Johnson, who's been suspended for tweeting and muttering "faggot" and "gay" a few times after their last loss. And Jeff Garcia wasn't even in the room! I'll take the points.

Jacksonville shouldn’t have any problems with KC after the ass whoopin’ they took last week against the Titans. It’s been up and down all year for the Jags, and this is an up week. My God, how did the Seahawks beat these guys 41-0? Meanwhile it’s been almost all down for KC, who have little to offer against Jacksonville. Jags 31 Chiefs 24

Arizona (4-3) at Chicago (4-3) -3.5
How unpredictable is the NFL? The Cardinals go into NY and whup on the Giants, and then come home and lay an egg against the Panthers. Parity may be quickly fading away this year (5 more games this week with double-digit spreads), but the inconsistency between these two teams provide a glimmer of hope that it can return. I'm going to guess that Kurt Warner doesn't do too well in the cold of Chicago this week and the Bears are able to pressure him. Arizona still doesn't have much of a running game. What's really scary about the NFC West is that as bad as Seattle has been this year, if the Cardinals lose here and the Seahawks beats Detroit in Seattle, they'll only be 1 game out of first place at 3-5. That's pretty nuts. Bears 23, Cardinals 17.

This has the potential to be a good game, but I give up trying to figure these teams out. Soon as I get on the Cardinal bandwagon last week, they stink up the field against the Panthers. THE PANTHERS! I see the Bears having an easy time, so long as they can get Kurt Warner flustered, and I don’t think that will be a challenge for the Bears. Chicago 27 Arizona 17

Green Bay (4-3) at Tampa Bay (0-7) +10.5
The battle of the bays! The Packers really disappointed me by letting Favre come out ahead last week. The good news is the Bucs are pretty frickin bad. Though 10 and a half is a hell of a lot to give to a home team. I wish I had more to say about this game, but yeah, the Packers are probably a borderline playoff team at this point, and they need to beat up on the lower-end teams if they want to sneak in. Packers 29, Bucs 17.

The Packers have proven they are at best a mediocre team so far. When faced with good competition, they are beaten by breakdowns on special teams and mental errors (such as Johnny Jolly’s ill advised head butting during the Vikings game). However when faced with poor competition, the Pack has dominated, and that’s what’s going to happen this week. Tampa is always a fun place for the Packers to visit as the crowd is usually 60 – 40 Bucs to Packers fans. I like the Pack with an easy win. Green Bay 34 Tampa Bay 10

Washington (2-5) at Atlanta (4-3) -11.5
Goddamn Falcons and that goddamn field goal. The Skins are bad, but I'm taking the points. And yes, it's likely because I'm pissed at the Falcons and not because of my real feelings on the game. Falcons 27, Skins 20.

I used to eat at a BBQ place in Bethpage, NY called “Zorn’s Chicken”, and every time I see Jim Zorn with that deer in the headlights look, I’m reminded of those tasty days gone by. There are two reasons why the point spread is only 11.5. First, the Skins are coming off a bye week and second, they tend to play better against better teams. But I’m not taking the bait: I like Atlanta by 13, oh and check this out: http://www.zornscaterers.com/ordereze/default.aspx Falcons 27 Redskins 14

Miami (3-4) at New England (5-2) -10.5
The smack-talking has begun. This should be an interesting game, as divisional games often are. The Dolphins are 3-0 against the AFC East (2 wins over the Jets, 1 over the Bills), and 0-4 outside the division. After a slow start, the Patriots are beginning to look like their old selves again. I'm going to say that the wild cat gives the Patriots just enough trouble for the Fins to keep it close. Patriots 31, Dolphins 27.

Here’s a game that could either be very close, or a complete Patriots blow out. The Pats are coming off a bye so they are rested and that bodes well for them. But I like Miami in this game. Oh, not to win of course. Ol Samichlaus ain’t that stupid. Miami rises to the occasion and keeps it close enough to warrant the points in a high scoring game: Patriots 37 Dolphins 34

Baltimore (4-3) at Cincinnati (5-2) +2.5
As a co-worker was in my office on Tuesday morning and I was explaining to him my horrible defeat the night before, I explained the pool I was in to him and showed him the website. The points hadn't been posted yet for this week at that time, but we glanced over the games. When we got to this one, he said, "Oh that'll be a good one." I said, "Yeah, I wouldn't have a clue who to pick. I think the Bengals will probably be a 2-3 point favorite at home." He said, "Really? I think it'll be more." Well, the Bengals are GETTING points. Which means either Vegas or the public don't believe in them yet. But I'm a believer. I'll take those points and feel pretty good about it. Bengals 23, Ravens 20.

Baltimore takes its crab cake eating posse to the land of crappy chili made with cinnamon, and here I will lay odds on the home dog. I like both of these teams this year, and man did the Ravens ever put the beat down on Denver last week, but it doesn’t compare to what the Bengals did to the Bears two weeks ago. A well rested Bengal team comes off the bye and beats the Ravens hands down. Bengals 31 Ravens 27

Houston (5-3) at Indianapolis (7-0) -9.5
The Colts didn't exactly blow away the Niners last week in Indy. And while the Texans will lose an important offensive weapon with TE Owen Daniels done for the year, they usually play the Colts tough. On the flip side, the Colts lost starting CB (and former Wolverine) Marlin Jackson for the year. So look for Andre Johnson to put up a big game. This could be the Colts first loss of the season if the Texans can manage to get some pressure on Manning. (Easier said than done.) I'll take almost 10. Colts 31, Texans 28.

The Colts showed some fallibility against the Niners last week and still managed to win. Houston just won’t be that much of a challenge. I see a return to double digit margins of victory for the home team Colts, as the schizophrenic Texans succumb to Peyton Manning’s aerial assault. Colts 37 Texans 14

Carolina (3-4) at New Orleans (7-0) -14.5
Effin Saints. No way am I laying two touchdowns this week after their horrible display of poor clock management and ball security. Their 9-game losing streak starts now. Panthers 37, Saints 34.

Let’s put St. Ides’ bad experience behind us and look at this game with honest and unemotional eyes. Carolina figured something out last week: take the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands and good things happen. Delhomme only threw 14 times against the Cardinals and the Panther won handily. I think they use the same formula this week against New Orleans. It’s a division rivalry and although the Saints will win, it will be closer than the line suggests. Saints 34 Cats 24

Detroit (1-6) at Seattle (2-5) -10.5
Seattle's only two wins this year were absolute thrashings at home. Shutouts of the Rams and Jaguars, two pretty bad teams. This could be the third one. Although Calvin Johnson scares me a little bit. Really, Seattle's offense hasn't been bad this year when Hasselbeck has been in there, despite the injuries on the offensive line. The problem has been turnovers (and lack of creating them.. they're something like 25th in the league in giveaway/takeaway +/-), the defense not getting enough pressure on the opposing QB, and allowing 3rd down conversions against. Maybe I'm crazy, but if this team can get a few offensive linemen healthy and start playing a bit more consistently on defense, I still think they can maybe go on a run and win the NFC West. After all, it looks like 9-7 (or even 8-8) might be enough to win that division this year. If they somehow lose this game.. All hope is lost.... Seahawks 31, Lions 10.

No effen way Seattle doesn’t win and cover against the Lions. After losing to St. Louis, Detroit has officially trashed their season. They might not win another game. The Seahawks are a shadow of their former selves, what with injuries that rival the battle of Antietam, but even their JV squad should have no trouble with the Lions. Seattle 31 Detroit 10

Tennessee (1-6) at San Francisco (3-4) -3.5
I'm not really sure what to make of the Niners. They actually stuck around in Indy last week. Frank Gore has been a beast. Their defense looks solid. But their QB situation is starting to catch up with them. The Titans woke up last week, shockingly enough once they put Vince Young in at QB. Chris Johnson is a home run threat any time he touches the ball. He and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for four 60+ TD runs last week (2 each). Four huge runs. What is this, high school football? That could happen again this week with Johnson and Gore. I'm thinking the Titans are on the rise. Titans 27, Niners 24.

San Francisco is a couple of plays away from being 5 – 2 right now, so I can’t figure out why this line is so low. I’m going with the Niners at home to bounce back after the loss to Indy. San Fran is right on the heels of the Cardinals and know that the NFC West is theirs for the taking. It’s the halfway point in the season and its time they make their move. Niners 24 Titans 20

San Diego (4-3) at NY Giants (5-3) -4.5
Man, what happened to the Giants? Started 5-0 and lost 3 in a row? Their secondary suddenly looks like a sieve. It seems teams have figured out that if they just protect their QB, this defense can be picked apart fairly easily. And Eli Manning has looked average at best. The Chargers haven't been much better really. They didn't exactly destroy the Raiders in SD last week. If the Giants really expect to be a contender, they need to start playing like one. Giants 27, Chargers 20.

The Bolts have won two in a row, while the Giants have lost their last three. Although handicapping the NFL is all about knowing when trends reverse, I’m going to stick with the trend. The Giants are in such a funk and so deep into the abyss, I’m not sure if they will ever recover. Maybe Tom Coughlin has run his course? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, I’m taking the Bolts. San Diego 31 New York 30

Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (5-2) -3.5
You know, that 5-2 record isn't doing much to back-up my insistence that the Cowboys are overrated. But they are. No, really. And Romo? Still overrated. He overthrew passes left and right last week. Poor Roy Williams was getting booed when balls that were way behind him or four feet over his head were bouncing off his fingertips. I know it sounds empty, but the game last week against Seattle was much closer than the score indicated. A sketchy pass interference call on 3rd and long in the first half was the turning point. If the ref doesn't throw that flag, Seattle gets the ball back right before the half with a chance to take the lead. Instead, the Cowboys take it in for a touchdown a few plays later. I hate the refs sometimes. Actually, more than some times. Almost all the time. The Eagles have quietly been taking care of business, including last week's thrashing of the Giants without Brian Westbrook. Westbrook is supposed to be back this week, and the Cowboys are toast. Eagles 34, Cowboys 17.

Big test for the Cowboys, who we have consistently picked against here at SBS. Sure this is a tough division rivalry, but after what the Eagles did to the Giants last week, I’m not too worried about their ability to rise to the occasion against a division rival. As for the Cowboys and Tony Romo, their record in “big games” speaks for itself. Eagles 37 Cowboys 24

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1) +3.5
The funny thing is that sometimes my picks on here and my picks in my pool don't match. Here's a little insight into how I work.. Basically, on Wednesday or Thursday during the day, I go into the pool website and check out the lines, and think about it for a brief amount of time, and make my "gut feeling" initial picks. Then on Thursday night or Friday morning, I write up this analysis and these picks based upon reason, logic, gut feeling, injury reports, and an overall "educated" decision about who I think will win. I thin read what Samichlaus writes, what the Sports Guy writes, a few other "professional" writers, and watch profootballtalk.com for the latest injuries and controversies going on. On Saturday night, I revisit my pool picks and make any last minute changes. 8 weeks (and 40 picks) in, I've only changed 3 or 4 games on Saturday night. The Denver/Baltimore game last week was one of them. I figured the Ravens were about due to have a good game, and the Broncos are still a bit overrated, as most of their wins have come beating up on crappy teams. While I picked the Ravens to win last week on good ol' SBS, I didn't have them covering. After further consideration, I decided they'd cover, and switched my pick. It paid off. This week? I'm going to take the Broncos and the points at home, though I think the Steelers will win. Look for the talk to begin about Kyle Orton being benched as he starts losing games for Denver. Steelers 30, Broncos 27.

Alrighty then. Denver as the home dog on Monday night? As good as I think Pittsburgh can be, I’m sticking with my theory about Denver at home. It’s hard to bet against them especially when they’re the underdog. Denver wins outright in a shocker to everyone not named Samichlau. Broncos 20 Steelers 17