Week X (that's Roman for 10)

I'll skip the long intro since you were treated to a separate Thursday night post... On to the picks!

Detroit (1-7) at Minnesota (7-1) -16.5
Two TDs plus? No problem for Minnesota coming off their bye week. The only way Minnesota doesn’t win by 20 is if they’re taking the Lions lightly, and the veteran leadership on that team won’t let that happen. Note to Ted Thompson and the Packers: that’s the sort of stuff that happens to the youngest team in the league 4 years running. Minnesota coasts: Vikings 38 Lions 17

I know the Lions are pretty bad. But I think Brad Childress is a pretty bad coach and he might be the one responsible for taking them lightly. I was wrong last week when I said Matt Stafford wasn’t playing for the Lions. He did. But he probably wishes he didn’t after throwing 5 picks in Seattle. I’d never actually put any real money on this, but I’ll take those points. Garbage TD for the cover. Vikings 31, Lions 17.

Denver (6-2) at Washington (2-6) +3.5
Denver’s lost two in a row. Nothing like a scrimmage against the Redskins to right that ship! A lot of people are jumping off the Broncos bandwagon this week but Ol’ Samichlaus says “not so fast”. Just how bad are the Redskins? They arguably have the worst Offensive line in the history of the game, and there’s nothing that Jason Campbell can do to remotely cover their weaknesses. This week the Skins honor America’s Veterans at FedEx field, and I’m concerned: if there are any shell-shocked vets out there we may be looking at multiple outbreaks of hysteria as the Broncos bomb DC into oblivion. Denver 34 Washington 15

I didn’t even realize it was Veteran’s Day this week until I heard it on the radio driving in the work. Weird. You’re right though, the Skins are exactly the thing the Broncos need to recover from their recent losses. This spread seems a little low, which scares me a bit.. Kyle Orton has started to look like.. well.. Kyle Orton. It’ll be interesting to see if Denver can hold off the surging Chargers in the AFC West after such a hot start. Broncos 27, Skins 17.

Atlanta (5-3) at Carolina (3-5) +1.5
The home team gets a point plus, but I’m confused here. This line shouldn’t be this close. If you wanted to make it interesting give the Cats 5. Atlanta is a good team with a good young QB. Carolina on the other hand is beset with injuries. Last week it was linebacker Thomas Davis lost to an ACL tear. I’ll take Atlanta by 7. Falcons 27 Panthers 20

The Panthers have looked better lately. And Matty “Ice” Ryan has had four below average games in a row. Not that Jake Delhomme has been any better. If the Falcons expect to make the playoffs in a conference where the Saints are running away with the NFC South and there’s a bunch of teams hovering within Wild Card range, they need to beat bad teams. The Panthers seem like a pretty bad team. I think they get the job done. Falcons 27, Panthers 24.

Tampa Bay (1-7) at Miami (3-5) -9.5
Boy did Tampa sure look good against Green Bay last week. That rookie QB Josh Freeman looked like the second coming of Daunte Culpepper when he was good: big body, big arm. But everyone knows that win was less about Tampa and more about Green Bay. We’ll get to that in a bit. The Dolphins played as well as expected against the Patriots, and will win this game, but I’m going to take the Bucs and the points: Miami 27 Tampa Bay 20

You know, I think some of it (maybe just a little) had to be Tampa Bay. I think you might be right about their QB. At least until teams figure him out in another 2-3 weeks and he falls apart. Miami is better than their 3-5 record indicates. They should win this, but I'll take the points. Fins 27, Bucs 20.

New Orleans (8-0) at St. Louis (1-7) +13.5
The Saints will easily get to 9-0 against the lowly Rams, but can they cover almost two TDs? Last week they won by 10 against Carolina, and that might be a signal that teams are starting to figure them out. But St. Louis couldn’t keep this game close, even if they had a copy of the Saints playbook. Take New Orleans and give the points. Saints 40 St. Louis 20

That’s two failures to cover in a row by the Saints, starting with the Monday Night Fiasco. The Rams are pretty bad, especially on offense, so I don’t see how they possibly keep this close. I don’t trust the Saints enough any more to take this one in my pool (where I went 4-1 last week by the way, and now have a 3-game lead overall), but I’ll take them here. Saints 34, Rams 10.

Buffalo (3-5) at Tennessee (2-6) -6.5
Tennessee really showed some guts beating the Niners, but I’m betting against them this week. So why would anyone in their right mind take the Bills under any circumstance? They’re actually pretty good on the road: they’re 2 – 2, with one loss coming by one point against the Patriots. Buffalo is looking to move the franchise from that God forsaken city, watch them shine this week: Bills 20 Titans 17

This is true that the Titans have looked better lately. But they were also whalloped by the Patriots not too long ago. Seems like a large spread for an underachieving 2-6 team. Shockingly, I have to say it looks like Vince Young has given them some fresh legs and new optimism. You know, I’m going to lay the points and say that the Titans are getting closer to that excellent team from last year than the 0-6 team that started this season. Titans 27, Bills 20.

Cincinnati (6-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2) -7.5
Pittsburgh has been steadily improving as the season has gone on, and looking at their schedule don’t be surprised if they run the table the rest of the way. Of course, the Bengals have become the leagues little darlings, and I really like what’s happening in that God forsaken town. But the Bengals are not yet in the Steelers class. 7.5 is a lot of points, but I’m going to bite. I’ll take the Stealers lay the points: Pittsburgh 26 Cincinnati 17

Taking the Bengals last week seemed like the easiest pick on the board. And no matter what my partner says about the city of Cincinatti or their chilli, I’m one of those who believes in the Bengals this year. Their defense has quietly turned some high draft picks into a solid unit. Carson Palmer and Ochocinco are having fun. And even former first round apparent bust Cedric Benson (who was run out of Chicago due to shady off-the-field happenings) seems to have cleaned up his act and is contributing. (He’s 2nd in the league in rushing yards, by the way. Ahead of Adrian Peterson. Pop quiz: Without looking it up, who’s 1st?) Anyways, I’d like to thank Samichlaus for picking up the “Stealers” spelling in his own analysis of this game, and I’m taking Cinci to win outright. Bengals 27, Stealers 24.

Jacksonville (4-4) at NY Jets (4-4) -6.5
Richmond was proud to announce that a major league AA team would be playing in the city next year. A franchise from Connecticut affiliated with the San Francisco Giants would move to Richmond, and the name chosen for the new franchise would be “The Richmond Flying Squirrels”. I wondered why they chose that name. After all, we certainly have squirrels here (there’s a whole family of them living in our sugar maple), but they are of the “rat with a bushy tail” variety, and not of the “Rocket J. Squirrel from Rocky and Bullwinkle” flying variety. It was only until a friend pointed me to urbandictionary.com and suggested I look up “flying squirrel” that it began to make sense. I can see it now: every 20 something with a dirty mind (and that would be all of them) is going to want to own a “Flying Squirrel” shirt or hat. Just like I’m sure that every 20 something in New York probably owns a “Dirty Sanchez” Jets jersey or cap. Cripes. I had to explain a “dirty sanchez” to my wife last week, right before we looked up a “flying squirrel”. It was another one of those “I so apologize on behalf of my gender” moments… I’ll take the Jets and give the points. Jets 24 Jaguars 17

Okay, so you got me. I had to look up “flying squirrel” as well. I’m sorry I did. How the hell did they get that name approved? And yes, I saw a photo from a Jets game of two people standing next to each other with #6 jerseys on. The jersey on the left said “Dirty” and the one on the right said “Sanchez” and I’m sure they’re not the only ones. As far as this game.. Wow, both teams kinda suck. After much hype and excitement early in the season with fast starts by both the Giants and Jets, the mood has crashed down to reality in recent weeks. (Although the Yankees World Series win lifted spirits temporarily…) Copy and paste time: If the Jets expect to make the playoffs in a conference where the Patriots are running away with the AFC East and there’s a bunch of teams hovering within Wild Card range, they need to beat bad teams. The Jaguars seem like a pretty bad team. I think they get the job done. Jets 29, Jaguars 16.

Kansas City (1-7) at Oakland (2-6) -1.5
Yoiks and away. Chiefs 20 Raiders 13

This week I saw a Raiders player quoted that they have the talent to win the remaining 8 games and make the playoffs. Someone needs to check the water in Oakland for LSD. Seriously. Chiefs 23, Raiders 20.

Philadelphia (5-3) at San Diego (5-3) -2.5
The Eagles came down to earth last week against the Cowboys, and although I’m not willing to get on the Dallas bandwagon quite yet, I will say this: the Eagles were a little over rated in Ol’ Samichlaus’s eyes. This is quite possibly the result of working with some die-hard Iggles fans on my last project. I mean, that level of hype eventually rubs off on even the thick headed of half-Calabrese. It’s ok, I can do that joke: Dad’s family is Calabrese. Anyway, I don’t think that the Chargers are as good as the Eagles, but I’m going against my judgment. I’ll take west coast at home and give the 2.5. Chargers 27 Eagles 23

The Chargers have gotten a bit hot. The Eagles have gotten a bit cold. I’m going to say the Eagles flying all the way across the country after a tough Monday night loss to the Cowboys is going to leave them a bit hungover. McNabb is due for an absolute stinker. Like a 5 turnover stinker. Chargers 31, Eagles 20.

Seattle (3-5) at Arizona (5-3) -8.5
Arizona recently has had Seattle’s number and this week is no exception. Considering they were able to stone the Seahawks in Seattle, I can’t imagine what this one will look like. Granted the Seahawks should be fired up, but their woes have been well documented in this blog. I’m putting my money on the Cardinals: Arizona 31 Seattle 10

Well, big difference. Last time around Seattle had their 4th string LT playing and 3rd string LG and the Cardinals took advantage by blitzing all day. Hasselbeck didn’t have any time whatsoever, and Seattle fell in a big 14-0 hole early after the Cardinals took the opening kickoff and scored, and then on the ensuing kickoff, managed to drop the kick between the wedge and returners to recover a non-pooch onsides kick. It was pretty much over 5 minutes into the game. This time, Seattle is as healthy as they’ve been all season. The offensive line will have their starters back (well, aside from Walter Jones who is done for the year, but Sean Locklear is much better than the dude who played last time), so Hasselbeck should have plenty of time. It’s always about getting pressure on Warner. Everyone knows it though, so Arizona schemes to protect him. One last point – Seattle did an excellent job shutting down and frustrating Calvin Johnson last week. If they can do even half of that against Larry Fitzgerald, they have a shot. All that said, it’s reverse jinx time! If Seattle loses this game, their season is over. (3 games back in the division and Arizona with the tie-breaker, so effectively 4 games back with 7 to play.) They’ll be the more desperate team. Do they have the talent to make that desperation count? Maybe, but I don’t have much faith. Cardinals 34, Seahawks 23.

Dallas (6-2) at Green Bay (4-4) +2.5
A sense of desperation has fallen on Green Bay since the loss to Tampa. On Monday, Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote a column titled “It’s time to talk firings”. Nick Barnett tweeted after the game “Dissapointed!!! That's all I can say!!! But regardless how hard we will be beat up by media we will continue to work as hard as we must” By the way, I decided to message him back when I read this. I wrote “@NickBarnett Stop blaming the media, and stop talking about "working harder". The team gets outworked every week, and that means you. Do it.” Now the prick blocked me. Anyway, the Packers know this is it. They absolutely must win this game, but I know that’s just not really possible. The Cowpokes are going to eat them up. Still, as a peace offering to @NickBarnett I’ve decided to predict the following: The Packers win this game solely on the play of linebacker Nick Barnett, who intercepts 4 passes from Tony Romo and whom Mike McCarthy carries off the field after the game. Packers 30 Cowboys 20

Oh funny I just used the word desperate for Seattle, and here’s that theme again for Green Bay. The Packers were the only favorite I took in my pool last week, and my only loss. Ouch. Hahaha, my condolences on getting tweet-blocked (I was trying to come up with something that applied to the situation and rhymed with “cock-blocked” and the best I could come up with was “twat-blocked” which totally doesn’t work) by Nick Barnett. How crazy is technology these days? To be honest, I haven’t watched a whole lot of Packers football, but from what I’m reading Aaron Rodgers is taking too many sacks, and some are his fault. Now would be a good time to fix that problem. And just in case Mr. Nick Barnett somehow finds this site and reads this, I too am predicting a huge game for him! (Now please un-block my pal, k, thx, bye.) Packers 26, Cowboys 17.

New England (6-2) at Indianapolis (8-0) -2.5
Here is your SBS Special event. In what could be the game of the season, the Pats travel to Indy guns a blazing. I’m going out on a limb here and taking New England. Has anyone noticed besides me that although Indy is undefeated, they haven’t been dominating like they were early on? Indy’s success has been predicated on Peyton Manning, who is making a strong case for MVP #4. But New England has been playing as a cohesive unit. In other words it’s not just Tom Brady making the plays. The Pats will find just enough to control Manning and the better team will win. New England 37 Indianapolis 34

I have to say, that is one nice thing about the “weighted” schedule in the NFL. (Though it’s overblown to a great extent – only 2 games on a team’s 16 game schedule are actually determined by their previous season’s standings.. I can explain how it works sometimes if you like. But right now, every NFL team knows who they’re playing in 14 of the 16 games they have for like the next 10 years. They just don’t know when and where. But I digress.) Since the Colts and Patriots seem to have been winning their respective AFC divisions each season, they match up almost every season. And the game rarely disappoints. The two best QBs in the league (and arguably two of the top 10 all-time) going head-to-head. The Colts are unbeaten, but their defense is very banged up and they haven’t established a consistent running game. I like Brady, Welker, and Moss to pick apart the depleted Indy secondary and give the Colts their first loss. And these teams could easily meet again in the playoffs. Patriots 31, Colts 24.

Baltimore (4-4) at Cleveland (1-7)
St. Ides didn’t send me the spread on this one, so I’ll just go ahead and give you the analysis and final score and you can figure it out. Baltimore will romp in this road scrimmage. The Ravens are another one of those teams with veteran leadership that beats the snot out of weaker opponents. I have yet to see them play at the level of their opponent. Sadly this also happens when they play better teams as well: they’ve yet to elevate their game and beat a better team, but this doesn’t apply this week. The Ravens will win by 17. Baltimore 37 Cleveland 20

Sorry, it got chopped off somehow. The Browns are getting 10 and a half at home. Which would usually make me reconsider going against them. But they’re pretty frickin horrible. The latest drama is that Brady Quinn is being reinstalled as the starting QB. Well, apparently Quinn had some pretty huge contract incentives if he took 70% of the snaps this season. He won’t make it now, most likely missing by about 1 game worth of snaps while Dereck Anderson was stinking it up. Someone asked Coach Mangini (who will likely be coaching some average college team like Purdue a year from now) if he knew about the incentives, and Mangini said he didn’t. Liar! There’s evidence he knew very well, and it can easily be deduced that he purposely sat Quinn an extra game or two to miss those incentives. The Browns are a total disaster right now. Ravens 23, Browns 6.